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At least 649 records · Page 36Linked to original sources
USGS2024

The dynamic feasibility of resisting (R), accepting (A), or directing (D) ecological change

Ecological transformations are occurring as a result of climate change, challenging traditional approaches to land management decision-making. The resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework helps managers consider how to respond to this challenge. We examined how the feasibility of the choices to resist, accept, and direct shifts in complex and dynamic ways through time. We considered 4 distinct types of social feasibility: regulatory, financial, public, and organizational. Our commentary is grounded in literature review and the examples that exist but necessarily has speculative elements because empirical evidence on this newly emerging management strategy is scarce. We expect that resist strategies will become less feasible over time as managers encounter situations where resisting is ecologically, by regulation, financially, or publicly not feasible. Similarly, we expect that as regulatory frameworks increasingly permit their use, if costs decrease, and if the public accepts them, managers will increasingly view accept and direct strategies as more viable options than they do at present. Exploring multiple types of feasibility over time allows consideration of both social and ecological trajectories of change in tandem. Our theorizing suggested that deepening the time horizon of decision-making allows one to think carefully about when one should adopt different approaches and how to combine them over time.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2021

Investigation of land surface phenology detections in shrublands using multiple scale satellite data

Shrublands occupy about 13% of the global land surface, contain about one-third of the biodiversity, store about half of the global terrestrial carbon, and provide many ecosystem services to a large amount of world's human population and livestock. Because phenology is a sensitive indicator of the response of shrubland ecosystems to climate change, the alteration of ecosystems following species invasions, and the dynamics of shrubland ecosystem function, biodiversity, and carbon budgets, it is critical to monitor and assess phenological dynamics in shrubland ecosystems. However, most current land surface phenology (LSP) products derived from satellite data do not provide phenology detections in some semiarid shrublands where the amplitude of seasonal vegetation greenness is small. Therefore, we investigated the LSP detection using multiple spatial resolution satellite data and examined the impacts of spatial scales and shrubland ecosystem components (shrub and herb cover) on LSP detections over the western United States. Specifically, greenup onset date (GUD) in shrublands was detected from 30 m Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) data and 500 m Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data to quantify scale effects. The GUD spatial patterns were explored with 30 m pixel variations in shrubland ecosystem components. The results show that GUD values varied with percent vegetation cover and shifted to earlier dates with increasing vegetation cover, demonstrating that satellite observations were not able to capture greenup onset until a threshold of green vegetation cover is reached. GUD was mostly undetectable from both HLS and VIIRS pixels with vegetation cover less than 10% and became fully detectable with vegetation covers larger than 50%. Similarly, the differences of GUD between HLS and VIIRS detections also decreased with increased vegetation cover. As a result of high shrubland heterogeneity, GUD from 30 m HLS pixels could be partially detected within a 500 m pixel despite GUD being undetectable from VIIRS time series. Moreover, vegetation cover heterogeneity also made it difficult for GUD at 30 m to be aggregated to coarse scales (such as to 500 m VIIRS pixels). These findings have significant implications to the detection and characterization of shrubland LSP responses to environmental and climate changes.

Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2018

Weather-centric rangeland revegetation planning

Invasive annual weeds negatively impact ecosystem services and pose a major conservation threat on semiarid rangelands throughout the western United States. Rehabilitation of these rangelands is challenging due to interannual climate and subseasonal weather variability that impacts seed germination, seedling survival and establishment, annual weed dynamics, wildfire frequency, and soil stability. Rehabilitation and restoration outcomes could be improved by adopting a weather-centric approach that uses the full spectrum of available site-specific weather information from historical observations, seasonal climate forecasts, and climate-change projections. Climate data can be used retrospectively to interpret success or failure of past seedings by describing seasonal and longer-term patterns of environmental variability subsequent to planting. A more detailed evaluation of weather impacts on site conditions may yield more flexible adaptive-management strategies for rangeland restoration and rehabilitation, as well as provide estimates of transition probabilities between desirable and undesirable vegetation states. Skillful seasonal climate forecasts could greatly improve the cost efficiency of management treatments by limiting revegetation activities to time periods where forecasts suggest higher probabilities of successful seedling establishment. Climate-change projections are key to the application of current environmental models for development of mitigation and adaptation strategies and for management practices that require a multidecadal planning horizon. Adoption of new weather technology will require collaboration between land managers and revegetation specialists and modifications to the way we currently plan and conduct rangeland rehabilitation and restoration in the Intermountain West.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2019

The state of the world’s mangrove forests: Past, present, and future

Intertidal mangrove forests are a dynamic ecosystem experiencing rapid changes in extent and habitat quality over geological history, today and into the future. Climate and sea level have drastically altered mangrove distribution since their appearance in the geological record ∼75 million years ago (Mya), through to the Holocene. In contrast, contemporary mangrove dynamics are driven primarily by anthropogenic threats, including pollution, overextraction, and conversion to aquaculture and agriculture. Deforestation rates have declined in the past decade, but the future of mangroves is uncertain; new deforestation frontiers are opening, particularly in Southeast Asia and West Africa, despite international conservation policies and ambitious global targets for rehabilitation. In addition, geological and climatic processes such as sea-level rise that were important over geological history will continue to influence global mangrove distribution in the future. Recommendations are given to reframe mangrove conservation, with a view to improving the state of mangroves in the future.

Annual Review of Environment and Resources↗
USGS2006

Dealing with uncertainty and sensitivity issues in process-based models of carbon and nitrogen cycles in northern forest ecosystems

Many process-based models on carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles have been developed for northern forest ecosystems. These models are widely used to evaluate the long-term decisions in forest management dealing with effects like particulate pollution, productivity and climate change. Regarding climate change, one of the key questions that have sensitive political implications is whether northern forests will sequester atmospheric C or not. Whilst many process-based models have been tested for accuracy by evaluating or validating against observed data, few have dealt with the complexity of the incorporated procedures to estimate uncertainties associated with model predictions or the sensitivity of these predictions to input factors in a systematic, inter-model comparison fashion. In general, models differ in their underlying attempts to match natural complexities with assumed or imposed model structure and process formulations to estimate model parameters, to gather data and to address issues on scope, scale and natural variations. Uncertainties may originate from model structure, estimation of model parameters, data input, representation of natural variation and scaling exercises. Model structure relates to the mathematical representation of the processes modelled and the type of state variables that a model contains. The modelling of partitioning among above- and below-ground C and N pools and the interdependence among these pools remain a major source of uncertainty in model structure and error propagation. Most soil C models use at least three state variables to represent the different types of soil organic matter (SOM). This approach results in creating three artificial SOM pools, assuming that each one contains C compounds with same turnover rate. In reality, SOM consists of many different types of C compounds with widely different turnover rates. Uncertainty in data and parameter estimates are closely linked. Data uncertainties are associated with high variations in estimating forest biomass, productivity and soil organic matter and may be incomplete for model initialization, calibration, validation and sensitivity analysis of generalized predictor models. The scale at which a model is being used also affects the level of uncertainty, as the errors in the prediction of the C and N dynamics differ from the site to the landscape levels and across climatic regions. If the spatial or temporal scale of a model application is changed, additional uncertainty arises from neglecting natural variability in system variables in time and space. Uncertainty issues are also intimately related to model validation and sensitivity analysis. The estimation of uncertainties is needed to inform decision process, in order to detect the possible corridor of development. Uncertainty in this context is an essential measure of quality for stakeholder and decision makers.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2015

Projection of corn production and stover-harvesting impacts on soil organic carbon dynamics in the U.S. Temperate Prairies

Terrestrial carbon sequestration potential is widely considered as a realistic option for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. However, this potential may be threatened by global changes including climate, land use, and management changes such as increased corn stover harvesting for rising production of cellulosic biofuel. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) at regional or global scale. This study simulated the corn production and spatiotemporal changes of SOC in the U.S. Temperate Prairies, which covers over one-third of the U.S. corn acreage, using a biogeochemical model with multiple climate and land-use change projections. The corn production (either grain yield or stover biomass) could reach 88.7–104.7 TgC as of 2050, 70–101% increase when compared to the base year of 2010. A removal of 50% stover at the regional scale could be a reasonable cap in view of maintaining SOC content and soil fertility especially in the beginning years. The projected SOC dynamics indicated that the average carbon sequestration potential across the entire region may vary from 12.7 to 19.6 g C/m 2 /yr (i.e., 6.6–10.2 g TgC/yr). This study not only helps understand SOC dynamics but also provides decision support for sustainable biofuel development.

Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North↗
USGS2019

Assessing rangeland health under climate variability and change

RANGELAND HEALTH IN A CHANGING WORLD Rangeland health is an integrated metric that describes a complex suite of ecosystem properties and processes as applied to resource management. While the concept of “healthy” landscapes has a long history, the term “rangeland health” was codified in the US in 1994 as part of an effort to move towards a national, data driven, rangeland condition assessment (National Research Council 1994). Rangeland health encompasses the status of both soils and ecological processes as well as the condition of those ecosystems relative to ecological thresholds (e.g. “healthy”, “at-risk”, or “unhealthy"; National Research Council 1994). This latter application ensures that rangeland health assessments not only evaluate the conditions of plants and soils, but also gauge those conditions with respect to known or hypothesized ecological dynamics (Bestelmeyer et al. 2013) for a given set of abiotic constraints (climate, soil, and topographic setting). Thus, an assessment of rangeland health should identify the “degree to which the integrity of the soil and the ecological processes are sustained” (National Research Council 1994, Us Department of Agriculture 1997). Rangeland health attributes and assessment procedures have become widely utilized tools for measuring and monitoring dryland ecosystems, and they may provide valuable perspectives on rangeland response to climate change, although long-term directional change in environmental conditions represents a challenge for traditional rangeland health assessment frameworks.

Book chapter↗
USGS2013

Projected future changes in vegetation in western North America in the 21st century

Rapid and broad-scale forest mortality associated with recent droughts, rising temperature, and insect outbreaks has been observed over western North America (NA). Climate models project additional future warming and increasing drought and water stress for this region. To assess future potential changes in vegetation distributions in western NA, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) coupled with its Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) was used under the future A2 emissions scenario. To better span uncertainties in future climate, eight sea surface temperature (SST) projections provided by phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were employed as boundary conditions. There is a broad consensus among the simulations, despite differences in the simulated climate trajectories across the ensemble, that about half of the needleleaf evergreen tree coverage (from 24% to 11%) will disappear, coincident with a 14% (from 11% to 25%) increase in shrubs and grasses by the end of the twenty-first century in western NA, with most of the change occurring over the latter half of the twenty-first century. The net impact is a ~6 GtC or about 50% decrease in projected ecosystem carbon storage in this region. The findings suggest a potential for a widespread shift from tree-dominated landscapes to shrub and grass-dominated landscapes in western NA because of future warming and consequent increases in water deficits. These results highlight the need for improved process-based understanding of vegetation dynamics, particularly including mortality and the subsequent incorporation of these mechanisms into earth system models to better quantify the vulnerability of western NA forests under climate change.

Journal of Climate↗
USGS2026

Weathering the ride: Associations of heat, smoke, precipitation, and ozone with bus ridership in Colorado

Weather and climate variability increasingly shape urban travel behavior, yet the short-term temporal dynamics and contextual modifiers of weather-transit relationships remain poorly understood. We analyzed system-wide hourly bus ridership in the Denver metropolitan area from June 2022 through September 2023 using fixed-effects negative binomial distributed lag nonlinear models with lags up to 24 h. Nonlinear exposure-response and lag-response functions were specified for hourly Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) and precipitation, with additional indicators for daily ozone exceedance and wildfire smoke. Models adjust for hour-of-day, day-of-week, and month-year fixed effects, with standard errors clustered by day. Stratified analyses assess heterogeneity by time period, season, fare policy, and shelter availability, with interaction evaluated using Wald tests. Cold thermal stress was associated with the largest, most persistent reductions in ridership, with cumulative declines of −15.7% (95% CI: −26.0%, −4.0%) over 0-24 h. Precipitation was associated with sharp but transient reductions concentrated within 3-6 h (−8.4% to −9.8%), with little evidence of longer-term displacement. Heat associations were weaker and context-dependent, with modest short-run increases, but net same-day declines. Associations varied by time of day and season, were attenuated during the free-fare period, and differed by shelter availability. In contrast, ozone exceedance and wildfire smoke exhibited limited and inconsistent associations, with measurable reductions primarily during morning commute during heavier smoke conditions. Overall, transit ridership is more strongly associated with short-term weather exposure, than with ambient air quality. Fare policy and stop-level infrastructure modify these associations, highlighting actionable strategies to enhance transit resilience under increasing climate variability.

Colorado↗
USGS2013

Validating predictions from climate envelope models

Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species’ distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967–1971 (t1) and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998–2002 (t2). Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences) was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences) was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on species.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2008

The Importance of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Process-based Models of Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling in Terrestrial Ecosystems with Particular Emphasis on Forest Ecosystems — Selected Papers from a Workshop Organized by the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM) at the Third Biennal Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (IEMSS) in Burlington, Vermont, USA, August 9-13, 2006

Many process-based models of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles have been developed for terrestrial ecosystems, including forest ecosystems. They address many basic issues of ecosystems structure and functioning, such as the role of internal feedback in ecosystem dynamics. The critical factor in these phenomena is scale, as these processes operate at scales from the minute (e.g. particulate pollution impacts on trees and other organisms) to the global (e.g. climate change). Research efforts remain important to improve the capability of such models to better represent the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems, including the C, nutrient, (e.g. N) and water cycles. Existing models are sufficiently well advanced to help decision makers develop sustainable management policies and planning of terrestrial ecosystems, as they make realistic predictions when used appropriately. However, decision makers must be aware of their limitations by having the opportunity to evaluate the uncertainty associated with process-based models ( Smith and Heath, 2001 and Allen et al., 2004 ). The variation in scale of issues currently being addressed by modelling efforts makes the evaluation of uncertainty a daunting task.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2006

Terrestrial ice streams-a view from the lobe

The glacial landforms of Minnesota are interpreted as the products of the lobate extensions of ice streams that issued from various ice sheds within the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Low-relief till plains, trough-shaped lowlands, boulder pavements, and streamlined forms make up the subglacial landsystem in Minnesota that is interpreted as having been formed by streaming ice. Extremely uniform tills are created subglacially in a way that remains somewhat mysterious. At the ice margins, thrust moraines and hummocky stagnation topography are more common than single-crested, simple moraines if the ice lobes had repeated advances. Subglacial drainage features are obscure up-ice but are present down-ice in the form of tunnel valleys, eskers, Spooner hills, and associated ice-marginal fans. Ice streaming may occur when basal shear stress is lowered as a result of high subglacial water pressure. Subglacial conditions that allow the retention of water will allow an ice lobe to extend far beyond the ice sheet as long as the ice shed also supports the advance by supplying adequate ice. Even with adequate ice flux, however, the advance of an ice lobe may be terminated, at least temporarily, if the subglacial water is drained, through tunnel valleys or perhaps a permeable substrate. Thrust moraines, and ice stagnation topography will result from sudden drainage. Although climate change is ultimately responsible for the accumulation of ice in the Laurentide Ice Sheet, the asynchronous advances and retreats of the ice lobes in the mid-continent are strongly overprinted by the internal dynamics of individual ice streams as well as the interaction of ice sheds, which obscure the climate signal. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Geomorphology↗
USGS2013

Introduction to the special issue on ‘Frontiers in gas geochemistry’

The study of the geochemistry of gases pervades the Earth and Environmental Sciences. This is due in no small measure to the well-established thermodynamic properties of gases which allow their application to a variety of processes occurring over a wide spectrum of natural conditions. In this respect, both major and associated minor gases have been proven useful: indeed, the trace gases have been particularly important given their role as sensitive geochemical tracers. Examples where gas geochemistry places key constraints on geochemical processes include the degassing history of the solid Earth to form the atmosphere and oceans, the origin and migration characteristics of hydrocarbon deposits, the scale of climate variability, the P–T characteristics of geothermal reservoirs, and the dynamics of the earthquake cycle and volcanic activity, to name but a few. This volume continues this rich tradition with an eclectic selection of papers aimed at exploring and exploiting gas geochemistry over a myriad set of research themes.

Chemical Geology↗
USGS2021

Twenty-first-century projections of shoreline change along inlet-interrupted coastlines

Sandy coastlines adjacent to tidal inlets are highly dynamic and widespread landforms, where large changes are expected due to climatic and anthropogenic influences. To adequately assess these important changes, both oceanic (e.g., sea-level rise) and terrestrial (e.g., fluvial sediment supply) processes that govern the local sediment budget must be considered. Here, we present novel projections of shoreline change adjacent to 41 tidal inlets around the world, using a probabilistic, reduced complexity, system-based model that considers catchment-estuary-coastal systems in a holistic way. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, retreat dominates (90% of cases) over the twenty-first century, with projections exceeding 100 m of retreat in two-thirds of cases. However, the remaining systems are projected to accrete under the same scenario, reflecting fluvial influence. This diverse range of response compared to earlier methods implies that erosion hazards at inlet-interrupted coasts have been inadequately characterised to date. The methods used here need to be applied widely to support evidence-based coastal adaptation.

Nature--Scientific Reports↗
USGS2026

Linking community-climate disequilibrium to ecosystem function

Turnover in species composition often lags behind the pace of climate change, resulting in mismatches between climate and communities. However, the impact of these community-climate disequilibria on ecosystem functions is rarely considered, and current methods for measuring disequilibria assume that species ranges were, until recently, in equilibrium with climate. Here, we develop a simple theoretical model to address both of these problems by linking community-climate disequilibrium with ecosystem functioning. We show how disequilibrium can impair functioning in the near-term even when climate change is expected to enhance functioning in the long-term. Responses are most likely to change over time in communities where turnover is slow, the impact of disequilibrium counteracts the direct effects of climate on ecosystem function, and pre-existing disequilibrium is large. These findings emphasise the importance of precise and unbiased estimates of community-climate disequilibria for improving ecological forecasts. By fitting our model to time series of both climate and ecosystem function from a metacommunity simulation, we show the potential for community-climate disequilibrium to be inferred without direct knowledge about species' distributions or climatic tolerances. We end by outlining a research agenda to apply dynamic disequilibrium concepts and test novel hypotheses across diverse ecosystems.

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2012

Uncertainty in assessing the impacts of global change with coupled dynamic species distribution and population models

Concern over rapid global changes and the potential for interactions among multiple threats are prompting scientists to combine multiple modelling approaches to understand impacts on biodiversity. A relatively recent development is the combination of species distribution models, land‐use change predictions, and dynamic population models to predict the relative and combined impacts of climate change, land‐use change, and altered disturbance regimes on species' extinction risk. Each modelling component introduces its own source of uncertainty through different parameters and assumptions, which, when combined, can result in compounded uncertainty that can have major implications for management. Although some uncertainty analyses have been conducted separately on various model components – such as climate predictions, species distribution models, land‐use change predictions, and population models – a unified sensitivity analysis comparing various sources of uncertainty in combined modelling approaches is needed to identify the most influential and problematic assumptions. We estimated the sensitivities of long‐run population predictions to different ecological assumptions and parameter settings for a rare and endangered annual plant species ( Acanthomintha ilicifolia , or San Diego thornmint). Uncertainty about habitat suitability predictions, due to the choice of species distribution model, contributed most to variation in predictions about long‐run populations.

California↗
USGS2017

Suitability of oyster restoration sites along the Louisiana coast: Examining site and stock × site interaction

Recognition of the global loss of subtidal oyster reefs has led to a rise in reef restoration efforts, including in the Gulf of Mexico. Created reef success depends entirely on selecting a location that supports long-term oyster growth and survival, including the recruitment and survival of on-reef oysters. Significant changes in estuarine salinity through management of freshwater inflows and through changed precipitation patterns may significantly impact the locations of optimal oyster restoration sites. These rapid shifts in conditions necessitate a need to better understand both impacts to on-reef oyster growth and population development, and variation in oyster stock performance. Oyster growth, mortality, condition, and disease prevalence were examined in three different stocks of oysters located in protected cages, as well as oyster recruitment and mortality on experimental reef units in three different locations representing a salinity gradient, along the Louisiana Gulf coast in 2011 and 2012. Over a 2-y period, the high-salinity site had highest oyster growth rate in protected cages but demonstrated the least likelihood for reef development based on on-reef oyster population failure, likely because of predation-related mortality (high recruitment and 100% mortality). In contrast, the midsalinity site with moderate oyster growth and on-reef recruitment and low mortality demonstrated a higher likelihood for reef development. The lowest salinity site exhibited extreme variability in all oyster responses between years because of extreme variation in environmental conditions during the study, indicating a low likelihood of long-term reef development. Whereas limited differences in stock performance between sites were found, the range of site environmental conditions tested was ultimately much lower than expected and may not have provided a wide enough range of conditions. In areas with limited, low recruitment, or rapidly changing environmental conditions, seeding with stocks selected for best growth and survival under expected future environmental conditions could better ensure reef development by using oyster populations best suited to the predicted conditions. With rapidly changing estuarine conditions from anthropogenic activities and climate change, siting of oyster reef restoration incorporating both oyster population dynamics and in situ biotic and abiotic interactions is critical in better directing site selection for reef restoration efforts.

Louisiana↗
USGS2022

Hydrogeology and groundwater quality in the San Agustin Basin, New Mexico, 1975–2019

This report describes the findings of a U.S. Geological Survey study, completed in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management, focused on better understanding the present-day (1975–2019) hydrogeology and groundwater quality of the San Agustin Basin in west-central New Mexico to support sustainable groundwater resource management. The basin hosts a relatively undeveloped basin-fill and alluvium aquifer system and is topographically divided into east and west subbasins by the McClure Hills. Groundwater chemistry and groundwater elevation data were compiled, collected, and interpreted in the context of groundwater flow and quality. The analyses presented in this report consider groundwater chemistry data collected within the last decade (2010–19) and groundwater elevation data collected from 1975 through 2019 to provide insight into present-day conditions. Groundwater elevations show that groundwater typically moves from the highlands to the lowlands, with a prominent east to west regional trend. Groundwater elevations were lowest in the southwestern portion of the west subbasin, where estimated flow directions suggest underflow through the local highlands into the northern East Fork Gila River watershed, which is further supported by historical groundwater elevation data from the northern East Fork Gila River watershed. Gradual groundwater elevation gradients (about 2 feet per mile) near the east and west subbasin divide suggest that groundwater slowly flows from the east subbasin to the west subbasin. Quantitative analyses of groundwater chemistry data show that groundwater in both subbasins has similar chemical characteristics. A systematic east to west groundwater evolution in water chemistry was not observed despite evidenced subbasin connectivity. The absence of this pattern suggests that groundwater mixing is regionally prevalent, sediment reactivity is low and variable, and (or) recharge conditions are comparable in both subbasins. Groundwater chemistry was generally independent of aquifer type, suggesting that the aquifers are hydrologically well connected. Corrected carbon-14 groundwater age estimates in the basin ranged from 232 to 13,916 years before present with a median of 5,409 years. A wide range of groundwater ages is therefore present in the basin, with waters commonly being thousands of years old, thereby supporting generally slow regional groundwater movement. A component of relatively young groundwater, for which estimated ages could not be accurately computed, is also present in the basin, and it may commonly mix with older waters. The spatial distribution of categorical and quantitative groundwater ages indicates that most recharge likely occurs in the highlands through mountain-block recharge and as focused recharge within arroyos, although evidence of modern (1953 and after) groundwater was minimal at sampled sites. Median annual gradients (groundwater elevation change over time) indicate that most groundwater elevations in the lowlands changed little (−0.2 to 0.2 foot per year) from 1975 through 2019. Groundwater elevations in the highlands varied more annually, which is likely due to recharge from precipitation events. These more variable groundwater elevations in the highlands compared with the lowlands, along with groundwater ages, provide further evidence that most groundwater recharge takes place in the highlands, with minimal recharge in the lowlands. Median groundwater elevation change for all sites was −0.05 foot per year. Temporal consistency of lowland groundwater elevations suggests that regional groundwater dynamics have been more or less stable through time under current climate and development conditions, although median annual gradients indicate that groundwater elevations may have slightly declined on average between 1975 and 2019.

New Mexico↗