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Results for “Geochronology, Thermochronology and Time Scale Research”

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USGS2024

Exploring landscape and geologic controls on spatial patterning of streambank groundwater discharge in a mixed land use watershed

Preferential groundwater discharge features along stream corridors are ecologically important at local and stream network scales, yet we lack quantification of the multiscale controls on the spatial patterning of groundwater discharge. Here we identify physical attributes that best explain variation in the presence and lateral extent of preferential groundwater discharges along two 5th order streams, the Housatonic and Farmington Rivers, and 32 1st to 4th order reaches across the Farmington River network. We mapped locations of preferential groundwater discharge exposed along streambanks using handheld thermal infrared cameras paired with high-resolution topographic and land use land cover datasets, surficial soil characteristic maps, and depth-to-bedrock geophysical measurements. The unconfined Housatonic River, MA, USA (12 km) had fewer discharge locations and less lateral extent (41 discharge locations with 38 m of active discharge/km of river) compared to the partially confined Farmington River, CT, USA (26 km; 169 discharge locations with 129 m of active discharge/km of river). Using a moving window analysis, we found along both rivers that discharge was more likely to occur where bank slopes were steeper, floodplain extent was narrower, and degree of confinement was higher. Along the Farmington River, groundwater discharge was more likely to occur where saturated hydraulic conductivity was higher and depth-to-bedrock was shallower. Among the 32 stream reaches surveyed (33.2 km of total stream length) within the Farmington River watershed, preferential discharge was observed in all but two stream reaches, varied from 0 to 25% of lateral extent along stream banks (mean = 6%), and was more likely to occur where stream reach slopes were steep, saturated hydraulic conductivity was high, and watershed urbanization was low. Our results show that, though both surface (e.g., topographic, land use land cover) and subsurface (e.g., soil characteristics, bedrock depth) factors control the prevalence of streambank preferential groundwater discharge, the dominant controls vary across valley settings and stream sizes.

Connecticut, Massachusetts↗
USGS1995

Evaluation of ground-water flow and hydrologic budget for Lake Five-O, a seepage lake in northwestern Florida

Temporal and spatial distributions of ground-water inflow to, and leakage from Lake Five-O, a softwater, seepage lake in northwestern Florida, were evaluated using hydrologic data and simulation models of the shallow ground-water system adjacent to the lake. The simulation models indicate that ground-water inflow to the lake and leakage from the lake to the ground-water system are the dominant components in the total inflow (precipitation plus ground-water inflow) and total outflow (evaporation plus leakage) budgets of Lake Five-O. Simlulated ground-water inflow and leakage were approximately 4 and 5 times larger than precipitation inputs and evaporative losses, respectively, during calendar years 1989-90. Exchanges of water between Lake Five-O and the ground-water system were consistently larger than atmospheric-lake exchanges. A consistent pattern of shallow ground-water inflow and deep leakage was also evident throughout the study period. The mean time of travel from ground-water that discharges at Lake Five-O (time from recharge at the water table to discharge at the lake) was estimated to be within a range of 3 to 6 years. Flow-path evaluations indicated that the intermediate confining unit probably has a negligible influence on the geochemistry of ground-water inflow to Lake Five-O. The hydrologic budgets and flow-path evaluations provide critical information for developing geochemical budgets for Lake Five-O and for improving the understanding of the relative importance of various processes that regulate the acid-neutralizing capacity of softwater seepage lakes in Florida.

Florida↗
USGS2025

To heal or not to heal?: 1. The effect of pore fluid pressure on the frictional healing behavior of lithologies in Oklahoma

The competition between fault healing (i.e., re-strengthening) and fault loading determines the timing and magnitude of fault failure within the seismic cycle. Repeating earthquakes can give observational estimates of fault healing rates, however, it is difficult to link laboratory studies of frictional healing and observed healing rates from repeating earthquakes in part because of uncertainty in lithology at depth. Due to well-constrained and relatively simple geology, earthquakes in Oklahoma can be linked to the granitic basement rock and to the Arbuckle Group, which is primarily composed of dolomite at earthquake depths. Here, we conduct friction experiments to measure healing rates of the two earthquake-bearing lithologies at confining pressures representative of earthquake depths and pore pressures ranging from 0% to 80% of the confining pressure. We measure frictional healing by executing slide-hold-slide tests with hold times ranging from 3 s to 3000 s. The friction experiments on the Troy Granite indicate that pore fluid pressure does not greatly affect healing rate. On the other hand, the dolomite of the Arbuckle Group exhibits decreased healing with increased pore fluid pressure, with weakening at the highest pore pressure. We hypothesize that this is due to an increase in dissolution of dolomite at high pore pressures/low effective normal stress. These healing rates are used in the companion paper to understand the moment-recurrence time behavior of repeating earthquakes in Prague, Oklahoma. This work has implications for possible enhanced dissolution and weakening behavior of the Arbuckle Group during wastewater injection activities.

Oklahoma↗
USGS2026

Continuous monitoring and temporal variability of fluorescence of dissolved organic matter in karst groundwater of the Edwards aquifer, south-central Texas, 2019–24

Widespread urbanization on the Edwards aquifer recharge zone in south-central Texas has prompted the development of new approaches and tools for evaluating the current and future status of water quality in the San Antonio and Barton Springs segments of the Edwards aquifer. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the San Antonio Water System and the City of Austin, applied continuous monitoring of fluorescence of dissolved organic matter (fDOM) to characterize the sources and transport of dissolved organic matter and associated constituents in the Edwards aquifer. Continuous fDOM time-series data were adjusted using empirically derived temperature, turbidity, and inner-filter-effect correction factors prior to analysis and interpretation. Fully corrected fDOM time-series data from the study sites were evaluated for short- and long-term temporal variability in fDOM in the context of the hydrologic and climatic conditions that occurred during the 5-year study period to understand vulnerability of the aquifer to potential contaminants in recharge. Study results indicate that fDOM is an effective proxy for dissolved organic carbon that, in turn, is indicative of the influx of recent surface water and associated contaminants, and thus, aquifer vulnerability to those contaminants. Although other continuously monitored water-quality parameters provide insights into changes in water quality in response to varying hydrologic conditions, the quantitative relation between fDOM and dissolved organic carbon directly indicates the timing and magnitude of pulses of organic constituents derived from the land surface, whereas other water-quality parameters do not.

Texas↗
USGS2025

Induced earthquakes are generally not tidally triggered in Oklahoma and Kansas

Human-induced earthquakes occur along critically stressed faults as injected wastewater simultaneously heightens fluid pressure and pushes faults to failure. We investigate the possibility that small stresses imposed by Earth tides could trigger earthquakes in the induced seismicity region of Oklahoma and Kansas from 2011 to 2018. We decluster a catalog consisting of ∼110,000 earthquakes using three methods (Reasenberg, nearest-neighbor distance, and phase-bin). We find no significant tidal earthquake triggering using Schuster's p -value test for the declustered catalogs as a whole. We search for localized triggering using discretized space-time cells and find ∼0–6% of cells have significant tidal triggering which is close to what is randomly expected (5%) and indicates there is an insignificant amount of tidal triggering for the full study region. One area that has significant p -values across multiple time windows, ∼2014–2016 is ∼15 km from a region of large wastewater injection volume. It is possible that localized tidal triggering occurs for this time and area because faults remain critically stressed and are particularly susceptible to slip under the small stress load from the semidiurnal tide. Possible explanations for the lack of tidal triggering in our broader study are that the pre-seismic stressing rate in the earthquake nucleation area is faster than the tidal stressing rate (∼3 kPa/day), faults are not close enough to critically stressed to be affected by tidal forcing, and that nucleation occurs over longer periods than the tides considered in this study (∼1, ∼14 days). Fluid injection could be the source of a higher pre-seismic stress rate.

Kansas, Oklahoma↗
USGS2024

The 3D National Topography Model Call for Action—Part 1. The 3D Hydrography Program

The U.S. Geological Survey is initiating the 3D Hydrography Program (3DHP), the first systematic remapping of the Nation’s surface waters since the original 1:24,000-scale topographic mapping program was active from 1947 to 1992. Building on decades of experience maintaining the National Hydrography Dataset (NHD), the Watershed Boundary Dataset (WBD), and the NHDPlus High Resolution (NHDPlus HR), the 3DHP will completely refresh the Nation’s hydrography data and improve discovery and sharing of water-related data. The design of the 3DHP is based on the results of a study that estimated that the fully implemented program would have the potential to provide more than $1 billion in benefits to Federal, State, Tribal, Territorial, and local governments and to private and nonprofit organizations every year, in addition to myriad societal benefits. The 3DHP would directly support better decision making regarding water resources by providing more accurate, complete, and integrated information than is currently available. The 3DHP datasets will include a three-dimensional (3D) hydrography network generated from and integrated with elevation data from the 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) to better represent stream gradients and channel conditions, along with waterbodies, hydrologic units, hydrologically enhanced elevation and other surfaces, and more consistent and accurate attributes. The 3DHP datasets will inherit key attributes of the NHD, WBD, and NHDPlus HR, and they also will include new attributes and links to other data such as the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wetlands Inventory, groundwater data, and engineered hydrologic systems such as stormwater networks. The 3DHP will be designed to provide a set of open and interoperable web-based tools, maps, and data catalogs, creating a robust system for users to reference their information about water; the system elements are collectively referred to as the “infostructure.” The 3DHP and the infostructure can provide a foundational geospatial underpinning for the Internet of Water, a community-based effort to modernize tools and technologies to share water data. As proposed, the 3DHP would begin providing products and services to the public in 2024.

Circular↗
USGS1976

Availability of ground water in the area surrounding the Trident submarine construction facility, Kitsap County, Washington

This report provides general information on the water resources--with emphasis on ground-water occurrence and availability--in that part of Kitsap County (referred to as Trident Impact Area) that would be most affected by the development of the Trident submarine-construction facility at Bangor. Ground water occurs principally in a lower, confined aquifer near and below sea level and an upper, unconfined aquifer above sea level; both aquifers are extensive beneath the study area and are composed of sand and gravel layers separated by poorly permeable silt, clay, and till layers. Locally throughout the area efficiently constructed wells tapping each of the two aquifers are capable of yielding 100 to 1,300 or more gallons per minute. The estimated 1970 water use in the study area averaged about 13 million gal/day (gallons per day); of this amount about 9 million gal/day came from surface-water sources--from a large reservoir outside the study area--and about 4 million gal/day came from ground water pumped from the two aquifers. Anticipated water use soon will be about 18 to 21 million gal/day; virtually all the additional quantity required (about 5 to 8 million gal/day) above present use must come from ground-water sources. Preliminary evaluation of the aquifers suggests that an additional 1.5 million gal/day can be developed from the upper aquifer and 7 million gal/day from the lower aquifer. Existing wells tapping the lower aquifer might yield additional water and increase the total yield in the area by 3.5 million gal/day, and new wells drilled in selected areas could produce an additional 3.5 million gal/day from this aquifer. However, additional, large-scale ground-water withdrawal from the lower aquifer could induce saltwater intrusion into wells situated in coastal areas. Recommended future studies include additional data collection, monitoring of chloride concentrations in water from large-yield coastal wells, confirmation of well yields and capacities, and test-well drilling and analysis.

Washington↗
USGS2026

A novel drive-point multilevel system to investigate PFAS and other contaminants of global concern in the hyporheic zone of a wastewater effluent dominated stream

Contaminants found in treated wastewater discharged to streams, including pharmaceuticals and per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), are of global concern due to their deleterious effects on aquatic ecosystems and potential impacts to human health. Hyporheic zones have strong potential for contaminant attenuation. Assessing this potential requires collection of physical and biogeochemical data within the hyporheic zone. This study tested the applicability of a novel drive-point multilevel system (DP-MLS) for quantifying head profiles and characterizing contaminant concentrations in the hyporheic zone of a temperate region effluent dominated stream (EDS). DP-MLS, each with 4 ports, were installed in the stream bed at two sites, DS-1 and DS-2, 0.2 and 4.7 km downstream of the effluent outfall, respectively. Head profiles were measured and groundwater collected for analysis of pharmaceuticals and PFAS temporally over two years. The DP-MLS withstood rapid changes in stage, ice formation, and floating debris. Vertical hydraulic gradients (VHG) were generally upward but varied in magnitude indicating heterogeneity in hydraulic conductivity and variability in flow conditions. Upward VHG were also about 2X larger at DS-1 than at DS-2. Contaminant concentration profiles consistently showed penetration of pharmaceuticals and PFAS to 1 m below the bed at DS-2 while there was less penetration, lower groundwater concentrations, and more temporal variability in concentrations at DS-1. Integration of the physical and chemical data suggests weaker upwelling conditions at DS-2 are more easily reversed during periods of high stream stage, which could facilitate migration of wastewater contaminants into the bed. However, further studies incorporating other transport processes and reach scale dynamics are required to fully characterize these exchanges. Overall, this study demonstrates the efficacy of these novel DP-MLSs for characterization of the hyporheic zone and provides new insights into the occurrence, composition, and persistence of wastewater derived contaminants in the hyporheic zone of a well-studied EDS.

Iowa↗
USGS2024

A methodology to estimate CO2 and energy gas storage resources in depleted conventional gas reservoirs

Depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs are subsurface geological structures capable of sequestering vast quantities of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) as well as storing other energy gases for later usage, such as natural gas, and potentially hydrogen (H 2 ). Here we outline a methodology to quantify multi-gas storage resources in depleted conventional gas reservoirs for usage in assessments by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) at the scale of sedimentary basins. The methodology consists first of quantifying accessible pore volume in a depleted reservoir for natural gas storage using up to three equations. Input data are derived from commonly reported or estimated reservoir parameters and natural gas production volumes, and equations may be combined in linear models to improve pore volume estimates. Storage estimates from these equations are tested and validated for 31 reservoirs in the Michigan Basin Province, USA that were previously converted to underground gas storage facilities and have known (federally reported) natural gas storage capacities. Secondly, natural gas storage capacities can be transformed via fluid substitution calculations to estimate the storage resources for non-native fluids, applied here for, CO 2 , H 2 , and methane-H 2 blends, accounting for molecule-specific deviations from ideal gas behavior at reservoir pressures and temperatures as well as differing storage efficiencies. Importantly, the storage of non-native fluids may not be appropriate in all depleted gas reservoir settings due to potential risks like leakage, in particular in the case of H 2 storage, requiring additional knowledge of caprock sealing capacity. Given this caveat, we demonstrate the fluid substitution method for natural gas reservoirs of the Northern Niagaran Reef and Southern Niagaran Reef USGS plays in the Michigan Basin Province, as these trends of Silurian pinnacle reefs are capped with tight-sealing evaporite facies. The deterministic equations outlined from this methodology can be incorporated into future probabilistic USGS gas storage assessments for CO 2 , H 2 , and natural gas resources in the United States.

Michigan↗
USGS2024

Geologic framework and hydrostratigraphy of the Edwards and Trinity aquifers within northern Medina County, Texas

During 2023–24, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Edwards Aquifer Authority, revised a previous publication of the geologic framework and hydrostratigraphy of the Edwards and Trinity aquifers that was completed during 2018–20 within northern Medina County, Texas. The purpose of this report is to present the updated geologic framework and hydrostratigraphy of the rocks containing the Edwards and Trinity aquifers in northern Medina County from field observations of the surficial expressions of the rocks. The report includes a detailed 1:24,000-scale hydrostratigraphic map with names and descriptions of the geologic and hydrostratigraphic units (HSUs) in the study area. This study includes updates to the geology of the Kainer Formation (or its stratigraphic equivalent, the Fort Terrett Formation) with the addition of a burrowed unit between the basal nodular and dolomitic members. The hydrostratigraphy was also updated with the addition of HSU IIA for the upper part of the Devils River Limestone and the Seco Pass HSU for the burrowed member of the Kainer (or Fort Terrett) Formation. The Cretaceous age rocks (listed in ascending order) in the study area are part of the Trinity Group, Edwards Group and stratigraphically equivalent Devils River Limestone, Washita Group, Eagle Ford Group, Austin Group, and Taylor Group, with isolated areas where Late Cretaceous age igneous rocks have intruded. The groups and formations are composed primarily of relatively thick layers of clays, shales, and limestone. The igneous rocks are coarse-grained ultramafic in composition. Hydrostratigraphically, the rocks exposed in the study area (listed in descending order from land surface) are igneous, the upper confining unit to the Edwards aquifer, the Edwards aquifer, the upper zone of the Trinity aquifer, and the upper part of the middle zone of the Trinity aquifer. The karstic carbonate Edwards and Trinity aquifers developed because of their original depositional history, primary and secondary porosity, diagenesis, fracturing, and faulting. These factors have resulted in development of modified porosity, permeability, and transmissivity within and between the aquifers.

Texas↗
USGS2026

End-user needs for remote sensing wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America comprises globally important grassland and wetland ecosystems critical for numerous populations of migratory birds. Due to the importance of this region for migratory birds, and particularly waterfowl, and the threats of habitat loss due to intensifying agriculture, there is a mature and diverse system of conservation organizations, agencies, and partnerships that spends hundreds of millions of dollars annually on habitat conservation to support migratory bird populations. Remote sensing can be a powerful tool for observing and evaluating global change at large scales as well as expanding inferences from field studies to the broader landscape with statistical models. However, development and utilization of these tools has lagged behind their demand for several reasons, including concerns over spatial and temporal resolution and accuracy of products; perception of a misalignment with decision-maker needs; technological barriers such as skill sets of conservation professionals, computing resources, data access, and usability. In this report, we summarize the needs of conservation professionals and scientists who use or want to use remote sensing data products to inform science about wetland change and conservation of wetlands in the PPR. We assembled this information through several methods leading up to, during, and following a January 2026 PPR Wetland Remote Sensing Workshop. The workshop included United States and Canadian scientists, conservation professionals, and policy experts. Our goal was to bring together end-users and remote sensing product developers jointly to explore reducing the lag between product development and utilization of products to inform science and conservation. Specifically, we aimed to identify gaps in wetland remote sensing that limit effective monitoring, management, and conservation in the PPR, and to develop a framework that outlines pathways to address these gaps by fostering collaboration, improving communication networks, encouraging discussion, and building on existing and ongoing efforts. This report summarizes our participants’ descriptions of end-user needs and the outcomes of the workshop.

Prairie Pothole region↗
USGS2024

Geophysical characterization of mine influenced groundwater and surface water in the Mayflower section of the Animas River, Bonita Peak Mining District, Silverton Colorado

This report details findings from geophysical investigations to identify possible groundwater - surface water interactions near the Mayflower Section of the Animas River in Silverton, Colorado. The Mayflower Section is a mine influenced Superfund Site in Colorado. This investigation utilized electromagnetic induction (EM or EMI), magnetic, and fiber optic distributed temperature system (FODTS) geophysical methods to measure the bulk earth electrical conductivity, magnetic susceptibility, and temperature of specific surveyed volumes of the earth near the Mayflower Section of the Animas River. These physical parameters are used to understand the groundwater – surface water interactions, which can guide decision makers in their assessment of mine-impacted surface water. This report details the results from characterization and monitoring technologies to provide high data density and continuous monitoring of bulk earth electrical conductivity and temperature in the Mayflower section of the Animas River to identify zones of groundwater – surface water interactions and potential metal loading from mine influenced water. The investigation separated right and left bank characterization for each method and indicates more groundwater is entering from the right bank than the left bank and these predominantly right bank discharges potentially contain metal-rich water compared to the left bank. Results also indicate mineral veins facilitate preferential groundwater discharge to the river due to possible jointing, fractures, and permeability differences sometimes occurring along veins relative to host rock. For example, Boulder Gulch is likely groundwater dominated and may be receive water impacted by Mayflower Impoundments #1 and #2. Additionally, the beaver ponds near Blair Gulch may influence groundwater discharge and Mayflower Impoundment #4 is possibly impacting groundwater and surface water and may be connected to the wetlands to the west of the impoundment. These data could be further analyzed for smaller spatial scale analysis within areas of interest. The identification of these locations along sections of the river likely impacted by mine influenced groundwater potentially entering the Animas River and can be used by site investigators, decision makers, and stakeholders in mitigation decisions and strategies.

Colorado↗
USGS2024

Effects of stochastically-simulated near-fault ground motions on soil liquefaction

The scarcity of historically recorded near-fault ground motions poses a challenge to systematically understanding the influence of near-fault effects on various types of seismic demands for engineering purposes. In particular, the current state of knowledge of the influence of ground-shaking intensity on soil liquefaction and its consequences does not specifically account for the effects of near-fault ground motion characteristics. In this study, the influence of near-fault ground motions on liquefaction triggering and lateral spreading are investigated using non-linear modeling of a hypothetical liquefiable soil column in the finite-element computational platform OpenSees subjected to simulated ground motion time series that represent strong earthquake shaking in the near field. The simulated ground motion time series and resulting datasets are based on a parametric stochastic model and are developed for a range of source and path parameters to represent a realistic variability of ground motion characteristics. Dependencies between ground motion intensity measures (IMs) and liquefaction demand parameters are investigated for near-fault pulse and nonpulse-like ground motion sets. Evolutionary IMs, such as cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) and the time-varying magnitude-adjusted peak ground acceleration (PGAM), are considered in developing liquefaction triggering probability density functions. Post-liquefaction triggering responses such as lateral spreading displacements are examined in relation to PGA M and CAV. The ground motion simulations are validated by comparing their liquefaction-capacity PGA M fragilities and post-triggering CAV vulnerability relationships to historical records from the 1994 Northridge earthquake in California, USA. Finally, a path forward for future studies that includes finding systematic differences in the IM-liquefaction demand relationships between near-fault and far-field stochastic ground motion sets is outlined.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2025

Meet the people where they are: Assessing user needs for aftershock forecast products in El Salvador, Mexico and the United States

Aftershock forecasts can help communities reduce their seismic risk by conveying how many aftershocks can be expected following a large earthquake, and how the expected number of aftershocks and their corresponding ground shaking evolves over time and space. Prior work finds that graphical forecast products may communicate such information better than only text or numbers. To identify which visual products can serve multiple user groups, we held workshops with members of several professions, including emergency managers, engineers, critical infrastructure operators, public health specialists, science communicators, and more. We conducted these workshops in El Salvador, Mexico and the United States to understand which forecast products may be effective across different countries. In these workshops, users performed small-group activities to elicit the types of aftershock forecast information that would support decisions in their respective roles and how this information would optimally be displayed. Maps of shaking hazards were frequently requested across all professions and countries, even for dissimilar forecast uses. The design of these maps, and other product needs, were differentiated by profession, country and other factors. Other forecast products, including those showing forecasts about the magnitudes and time periods of future aftershocks, also served a variety of users, but for different types of decisions. We found a greater variation in user needs by profession than by country, and that user needs also vary with time, communication channel and other contextual factors. We discuss practical implications for user-centered visual communication of operational aftershock forecasts.

International Journal for Disaster Risk Reduction↗
USGS2026

Uncertainty quantification of geologic energy storage in depleted gas reservoirs using material balance equations embedded in a hierarchical errors-in-variables model

The storage potential for gas in geologic settings, such as depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs and solution-mined salt caverns, is becoming salient to future energy infrastructure planning. Technologies such as carbon capture, utilization, and storage, carbon dioxide-enhanced oil recovery, and natural gas and hydrogen storage help meet growing energy demands, reduce carbon emissions to meet climate goals, and provide energy security amid geopolitical uncertainties. Therefore, estimates of underground gas storage capacity could be useful for efficiently navigating the energy transitions. Material balance is a fundamental method in reservoir engineering for estimating original gas in place and potential storage capacity at the scale necessary for national assessments of subsurface pore space resources. However, the deterministic method cannot accommodate multiple data sources or quantify uncertainty in predictions. In this study, a method that embeds material balance equations within a hierarchical errors-in-variables model is proposed which allows the estimation of the distributions of reservoir properties needed for assessments. Uncertainties associated with these reservoir properties have traditionally been expert-elicited, whereas the uncertainty estimates from the proposed models are data-driven. Capacity and uncertainty estimates can be used in a probabilistic resource assessment, supplementing information traditionally used by assessors or even replacing this expert elicitation step when data are unavailable. Various regression models are compared in a case study of the Michigan Basin, a large contributor to the United States’ current natural gas storage capacity. In particular, errors-in-variables models help ameliorate regression dilution and can quantify uncertainty in predictions of pressure in addition to storage capacity. Overfitting is addressed by quantifying generalization error and model averaging in simple and stratified cross-validation against reported working gas capacity, representing the varying quality and quantity of available data. Incorporating a statistical framework into existing numerical methods in reservoir engineering can improve the quality of estimation, and in particular, this method brings rigor to uncertainty quantification as part of a larger effort by the U.S. Geological Survey to assess domestic energy gas storage resources in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs.

Mathematical Geosciences↗
USGS2023

Prediction of the probability of elevated nitrate concentrations at groundwater depths used for drinking-water supply in the Puget Sound basin, Washington, 2004–19

The Puget Sound basin encompasses the 13,700-square-mile area that drains to the Puget Sound and the adjacent marine waters of Washington State. Well more than 4 million people live within the basin, with numbers continuing to increase, who rely on the basin’s natural resources including groundwater. The Puget Sound Partnership was created by a Washington State statute to implement a science-based recovery of the Puget Sound to help address impacts to these resources. As part of the recovery, the partnership developed the Puget Sound Vital Signs as measures of ecosystem health that guide the assessment of progress toward Puget Sound recovery goals. The Puget Sound Partnership Leadership Council adopted a Drinking Water Vital Sign associated with human health and quality of life, recognizing certain indicators as integral to the sustainability of Puget Sound recovery efforts. One such Vital Sign indicator was the vulnerability of groundwater throughout the aquifers of the Puget Sound basin to elevated nitrate concentrations as defined by the probability of exceeding 2 milligrams/liter (mg/L) at a specific location and well depth. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) led the effort to characterize groundwater vulnerability. For this study, groundwater vulnerability refers to a probability with which a contaminant applied at or near the land surface can migrate to the aquifer of interest for a given set of land-use practices. Nitrate concentration data were selected for evaluation because elevated nitrate concentrations are typically caused by anthropogenic activities and have been associated with deleterious impacts on human health. To identify groundwater vulnerability to elevated nitrate concentrations, logistic regression was used to relate anthropogenic (human associated) and natural variables to the occurrence of elevated nitrate concentrations in untreated groundwater from large public water supply system wells found within the Washington State Department of Health Sentry database. Variables that were analyzed included well depth, soil hydraulic conductivity, precipitation, population density, fertilizer application amounts, and land-use types. Statistically significant models that predicted the probabilities of groundwater nitrate concentrations greater than 2 mg/L based on the predictor variables were created for the time periods 2000–04, 2005–09, 2010–14, and 2015–19. For all time periods, well depth and a measure of the abundance of urban and agricultural land over or near the well consistently helped explain the vulnerability of the well to elevated nitrate concentrations defined as a probability of exceeding 2 mg/L of nitrate. Precipitation and (or) soil hydraulic conductivity were also important predictor variables in the models. The models for each time period were used to create maps of groundwater vulnerability at 150- and 300-foot depths throughout the Puget Sound basin. As expected, the most vulnerable locations were associated with shallower well depths and increased agriculture and urban land cover. Across all four time periods, groundwater vulnerability throughout the Puget Sound was low, with probabilities of exceeding 2 mg/L concentrations of nitrate at depths at 150 and 300 feet typically less than 50 percent. Results also found a slight decrease in probabilities of elevated nitrate concentrations throughout the basin over time. More specifically, additional statistical tests found that groundwater with probabilities of less than about 60 percent declined from 2000 to 2019 and represented more than 75 percent of the modeled Puget Sound basin aquifer. Wells with greater than 60 percent probability increased over the same time period but represented only about 25 percent of the aquifer. The maps and statistical analysis presented in the study provide valuable and informative evaluation of the vulnerability of groundwater in the Puget Sound basin to elevated nitrate concentrations. The probability maps do not represent measured nitrate concentrations in groundwater, but rather they present the probability that nitrate concentrations exceed 2 mg/L. The models and predictions from this study are a viable indicator for the Puget Sound Partnership’s Healthy Human Population—Drinking Water Vital Sign. The logistic regression modeling approach presented here benefits water managers by allowing them to assess temporal trends in a range of probabilities, explore vulnerability changes as new regional land cover and anthropogenic data are generated, and distinguish vulnerabilities at different depths within the aquifer.

Washington↗
USGS2025

Hydrogeologic characterization of the Cahuilla Valley and Terwilliger Valley Groundwater Basins, Riverside County, California

The relation between the groundwater and the amount of natural recharge to the Cahuilla Valley and Terwilliger Valley groundwater basins is not well understood. During the 20th century, the reliance on groundwater near Anza, California, used for agricultural, domestic, and municipal reasons has increased, and there is the potential for changes in groundwater availability related to climate change. Several types of existing data were evaluated, and new data were collected for this study, with the goal of characterizing the region’s hydrogeology. The study’s scope included constructing a geologic framework model to show where the groundwater-bearing units are present and their relation to each other, estimating the major components of the groundwater budget, and understanding local short-term and regional long-term groundwater flow and how that has changed since the early 1900s. Two electrical resistivity tomography surveys were done in the Durasno Valley about 2,150 feet apart to identify the thickness of the alluvium, its horizontal extent, and the depth-to-basement along two profiles perpendicular to Cahuilla Creek. The subsurface sediments were mostly horizontally layered and the transitional boundary between the alluvium and basement was thinner and shallower along the upgradient profile where the depth-to-basement was about 70 feet below land surface; the depth-to-basement at the downgradient profile was more than about 140 feet below land surface. The results from the surveys were used to place four monitoring wells at two sites along the survey profiles. Artesian flow from the deepest well at the downgradient site indicated that the decomposed and competent basement likely contributed some groundwater to the overlying alluvium, laterally, from below, or both. A digital three-dimensional geologic framework model was constructed using EarthVision software to represent the subsurface geometry of the alluvium, decomposed basement, and competent basement. Maps and cross sections of the modeled thicknesses of the alluvium and decomposed basement, and the modeled elevation of the top of the competent basement, were made to show the subsurface geometry of vertical faults, selected wells, and the groundwater-bearing units. Because natural recharge is related to the variable cycles of precipitation, estimates are difficult to quantify. Recharge and runoff have extreme interannual variability in the study area; recharge and runoff can be sporadic, and a substantive amount may not occur in some years. Estimates of recharge from a previous study and the regional-scale Basin Characterization Model for California for four different periods ranged from 3,800 acre-feet/year for 1897–1947 to 5,900 acre-feet/year for 1971–2000. Potential recharge from the disposal of domestic septic systems may have been as much as 500 acre-feet in 2020. It was estimated that between about 400 and 2,400 acre-feet/year of groundwater is lost through evapotranspiration by vegetation and evaporation from open water bodies, but the main source of discharge is through pumpage, mainly used for agriculture from the alluvium in the Cahuilla Valley and Terwilliger Valley groundwater basins. The estimated total pumpage for 1991–2021 ranged from about 1,140 acre-feet in 2019 to about 3,450 acre-feet in 1994. When summed, the cumulative amount of estimated pumpage between 1991 and 2021 was about 81,400 acre-feet. The general direction of groundwater flow is from the northeast along the San Jacinto fault zone at the headwaters of Cahuilla and Hamilton Creeks, to the surface-water outlets at the west and southeast parts of the study area. Groundwater-level data from the 1950s and earlier indicate that there was a natural groundwater divide between the Cahuilla Valley and Terwilliger Valley groundwater basins, but the changing magnitude and extent of the groundwater depressions caused by pumping since about 1950 indicate that the location of the natural groundwater boundary between the Cahuilla Valley and Terwilliger Valley groundwater basins has migrated over time. Flow from the upper to the lower parts of the Cahuilla Valley groundwater basin roughly follows the course of Cahuilla Creek through the narrow Durasno Valley where an estimated volume of flow in April 2019 was about 10–150 acre-feet/year. Short-term trends in groundwater levels, particularly in wells where groundwater is shallow and in the basement unit, show how some areas respond quickly to recharge and discharge. Wells located further to the east within the Cahuilla Valley groundwater basin in the alluvium show much less of a response to recharge events; areas of sustained pumpage from the alluvium, primarily for agriculture, show long-term declines in groundwater levels and generally do not show the effects of storm events or recent runoff. Groundwater levels in wells that are farthest from where most of the recharge occurs and where pumping has been the greatest, had some of the largest long-term groundwater-level declines at a rate of about 0.8 foot/year between 1971 and 2021.

California↗
USGS2025

Favorability mapping for hydrothermal power resource assessments of the Great Basin, USA

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is updating the 2008 assessment of conventional hydrothermal resources for the Great Basin in the western United States. As part of this work, the workflow for hydrothermal resource favorability maps is being modified to integrate modern data-driven machine learning (ML) methods. Improvements include: [1] using new and refined evidence layers (features); [2] using an order of magnitude more training sites (labeled examples); [3] utilizing simple but non-linear supervised ML algorithms; [4] representing positive training sites (wells with measured heat flow) with their ordinal value proportional to the magnitude of convective upflow (i.e., low, high, or very high convective signals instead of past strategies using positive-negative labels); [5] supplementing training sites with additional sites with low convective signals to represent diverse under-sampled areas where hydrothermal systems are unlikely to exist; [6] comparing with competing approaches; and [7] utilizing Monte Carlo cross-validation to estimate and evaluate prediction uncertainty. For the new favorability map, over half of the power-producing systems (i.e., 15 of 28) are predicted in the 99th percentile of most favorable locations (i.e., the highest 1 % of favorability, corresponding to 1 % of the map area), exceeding the performance of past models that have explicitly used power plants as training sites. Previous favorability maps predicted approximately half of the power-producing hydrothermal systems above the 80th percentile (i.e., 20 % of the map area). For the new favorability map, 93 % of power-producing systems (i.e., 26 of 28) are above the 80th percentile. The power-producing systems for which the new model does not perform well are either comparatively small, low-temperature systems or systems also not predicted well by prior modeling approaches, suggesting that these few systems are unusual when compared with most power-producing systems. Focusing research on these known, seemingly different systems may yield new insights and subsequent discovery of new prospects.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗