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At least 613 records · Page 34Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Analysis of storm-tide impacts from Hurricane Sandy in New York

The hybrid cyclone-nor’easter known as Hurricane Sandy affected the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States during October 28-30, 2012, causing extensive coastal flooding. Prior to storm landfall, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network from Virginia to Maine to record the storm tide and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Sandy. This sensor network augmented USGS and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) networks of permanent monitoring sites that also documented storm surge. Continuous data from these networks were supplemented by an extensive post-storm high-water-mark (HWM) flagging and surveying campaign. The sensor deployment and HWM campaign were conducted under a directed mission assignment by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The need for hydrologic interpretation of monitoring data to assist in flood-damage analysis and future flood mitigation prompted the current analysis of Hurricane Sandy by the USGS under this FEMA mission assignment. The analysis of storm-tide impacts focused on three distinct but related aspects of coastal flooding from Hurricane Sandy, including flooding inland along the tidal reach of the Hudson River. These aspects are (1) comparisons of peak storm-tide elevations to those of historical storms and to annual exceedance probabilities, (2) assessments of storm-surge characteristics, and (3) comparisons of maps of inundation extent that were derived from differing amounts of available storm-tide data. Most peak storm-tide elevations from Hurricane Sandy were greater than about 9.5 feet (ft) above North American Vertical Datum of 1988. Peak storm-tide elevations from Hurricane Sandy were compared with data for the intense nor’easter of December 11–13, 1992, and Hurricane Irene (August 27–28, 2011), which weakened to a tropical storm before arriving in New York. Peak storm-tide elevations from Hurricane Sandy were higher than those from the December 1992 nor’easter at 24 of 27 sites; most differences were greater than about 0.7 ft or 9 percent (above the historical storm tide). Peak storm-tide elevations from Hurricane Sandy were higher than those from Tropical Storm Irene at all sites; most differences were greater than about 2.5 ft or 48 percent. Data from permanent and temporary monitoring sites and HWM sites were compared with corresponding FEMA flood elevations for the 10-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities in New York. Peak storm-tide elevations from Hurricane Sandy had annual exceedance probabilities less than or equal to 1 percent and (or) greater than 0.2 percent at a plurality of sites—184 of 413. Peak storm-tide elevations greater than or equal to the 0.2-percent flood elevation accounted for 81 of 413 sites. Peak storm-tide elevations less than the 10-percent flood elevation accounted for only 10 of 413 sites. Data from selected permanent monitoring sites in the USGS and NOAA networks were used to assess storm-surge magnitude associated with the peak storm tide, and magnitude and timing of the peak storm surge. Most magnitudes of the peak storm surge were greater than about 8.3 ft, and most magnitudes of the storm surge component of the peak storm tide were greater than about 7.8 ft. Timing of peak storm surge arrival with respect to local phase of tide controlled where the most extreme peak storm-tide levels and coastal flooding occurred. This finding has bearing not only for locations impacted by the highest storm tides from Hurricane Sandy, but also for those that had the greatest storm surges yet were spared the worst flooding because of fortuitous timing during this storm. Results of FEMA Hazus Program (HAZUS) flood loss analyses performed for New York counties were compared for extents of storm-tide inundation from Hurricane Sandy mapped (1) pre-storm, (2) on November 11, 2012, and (3) on February 14, 2013. The resulting depictions of estimated total building stock losses document how differing amounts of available USGS data affect the resolution and accuracy of storm-tide inundation extents. Using the most accurate results from the final (February 14, 2013) inundation extent, estimated losses range from $380 million to $5.9 billion for individual New York counties; total estimated aggregate losses are about $23 billion for all New York counties. Quality of the inundation extents used in HAZUS analyses has a substantial effect on final results. These findings can be used to inform future post-storm reconstruction planning and estimation of insurance claims.

New York↗

USGS2015

Flood-inundation Maps for the Deerfield River, Franklin County, Massachusetts, from the Confluence with the Cold River Tributary to the Connecticut River

The U.S. Geological Survey developed flood elevations in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency for a 30-mile reach of the Deerfield River from the confluence of the Cold River tributary to the Connecticut River in the towns of Charlemont, Buckland, Shelburne, Conway, Deerfield, and Greenfield in Franklin County, Massachusetts to assist land owners, and emergency management workers prepare for and recover from floods. Peak flows with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities were computed for the reach from updated flood-frequency analyses. These peak flows were routed through a one-dimensional step-backwater hydraulic model to obtain the corresponding peak water-surface elevations and to place the tropical storm Irene flood of August 28, 2011 into historical context. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using current [2015] stage-discharge relations at two U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in the study reach—Deerfield River at Charlemont, MA (01168500) and Deerfield River near West Deerfield, MA (01170000)—and from documented high-water marks from the tropical storm Irene flood, which had between a 1- and 0.2-percent AEP. The hydraulic model was used to compute water-surface profiles for flood stages referenced to the two streamgages. Two sets of flood-inundation map libraries were created from the modeled profiles. The library for the upstream, western portion of the modeled reach is 9.1 miles long, extends from just downstream of the confluence of the Deerfield River with the Cold River to just upstream of the confluence with Clesson Brook, and is calibrated to the Deerfield River at Charlemont, MA streamgage. The library for the downstream, eastern portion of the modeled reach is 8.9 miles long, extends from just downstream of the confluence of the Deerfield River with the South River to just upstream of the confluence with the Green River, and is calibrated to the Deerfield River near West Deerfield streamgage. Stages for mapped profiles of the upstream reach range from 8.7 feet (ft) at the local datum (525.6 ft when converted to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 [NAVD 88]) to 25.7 ft (542.6 ft at NAVD 88) at the Charlemont streamgage, and stages for mapped profiles of the downstream reach range from 8.5 ft (165.2 ft at NAVD 88) to 29.0 ft (185.7 ft at NAVD 88) at the West Deerfield streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model derived from 0.5-ft vertical accuracy light detection and ranging (lidar) data to create the two sets of flood-inundation maps. The availability of the flood-inundation maps at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, combined with information regarding current (near real-time) stage from the two U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in the study reach, can provide emergency management personnel and residents with information to aid in flood response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, and with postflood recovery efforts. The flood-inundation maps are nonregulatory, but provide Federal, State, and local agencies and the public with estimates of the potential extent of flooding during selected peak-flow events.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2015

Flood-Inundation Maps for the North River in Colrain, Charlemont, and Shelburne, Massachusetts, From the Confluence of the East and West Branch North Rivers to the Deerfield River

A series of 10 digital flood-inundation maps were developed for a 3.3-mile reach of the North River in Colrain, Charlemont, and Shelburne, Massachusetts, by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The coverage of the maps extends from the confluence of the East and West Branch North Rivers to the Deerfield River. Peak-flow estimates at the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities were computed for the reach from updated flood-frequency analyses. These peak flows were routed through a one-dimensional step-backwater hydraulic model to obtain the corresponding peak water-surface elevations and to place the tropical storm Irene flood of August 28, 2011, into historical context. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the current [2015] stage-discharge relation at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage North River at Shattuckville, MA (station number 01169000), and from documented high-water marks from the tropical storm Irene flood, which had a peak flow with approximately a 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability. A hydraulic model was used to compute water-surface profiles for 10 flood stages referenced to the streamgage and ranging from 6.6 feet (ft; 464.5 ft North American Vertical Datum of 1988 [which is approximately bankfull]) to 18.3 ft (476.2 ft North American Vertical Datum of 1988 [which is the stage of the 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability peak flow and exceeds the maximum recorded water level at the streamgage and the National Weather Service major flood stage of 13.0 ft]. The mapped stages of 6.6 to 18.3 ft were selected to match the stages of flows for bankfull; the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities; and an incremental stage of 17.0 ft. The simulated water-surface profiles were combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data with a 0.5-ft vertical accuracy to create a set of flood-inundation maps. The availability of the flood-inundation maps, combined with information regarding near-real-time stage from the U.S. Geological Survey North River at Shattuckville, MA streamgage can provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, and postflood recovery efforts. The flood-inundation maps are nonregulatory, but provide Federal, State, and local agencies and the public with estimates of the potential extent of flooding during selected peak-flow events. Introduction

Massachusetts↗

USGS2016

Documentation and hydrologic analysis of Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey, October 29–30, 2012

In 2012, a late season tropical depression developed into a tropical storm and later a hurricane. The hurricane, named “Hurricane Sandy,” gained strength to a Category 3 storm on October 25, 2012, and underwent several transitions on its approach to the mid-Atlantic region of the eastern coast of the United States. By October 28, 2012, Hurricane Sandy had strengthened into the largest hurricane ever recorded in the North Atlantic and was tracking parallel to the east coast of United States, heading toward New Jersey. On October 29, 2012, the storm turned west-northwest and made landfall near Atlantic City, N.J. The high winds and wind-driven storm surge caused massive damage along the entire coastline of New Jersey. Millions of people were left without power or communication networks. Many homes were completely destroyed. Sand dunes were eroded, and the barrier island at Mantoloking was breached, connecting the ocean with Barnegat Bay. Several days before the storm made landfall in New Jersey, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) made a decision to deploy a temporary network of storm-tide sensors and barometric pressure sensors from Virginia to Maine to supplement the existing USGS and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) networks of permanent tide monitoring stations. After the storm made landfall, the USGS conducted a sensor data recovery and high-water-mark collection campaign in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Peak storm-tide elevations documented at USGS tide gages, tidal crest-stage gages, temporary storm sensor locations, and high-water-mark sites indicate the area from southern Monmouth County, N.J., north through Raritan Bay, N.J., had the highest peak storm-tide elevations during this storm. The USGS tide gages at Raritan River at South Amboy and Raritan Bay at Keansburg, part of the New Jersey Tide Telemetry System, each recorded peak storm-tide elevations of greater than 13 feet (ft)—more than 5 ft higher than the previously recorded period-of-record maximum. A comparison of peak storm-tide elevations to preliminary FEMA Coastal Flood Insurance Study flood elevations indicated that these areas experienced the highest recurrence intervals along the coast of New Jersey. Analysis showed peak storm-tide elevations exceeded the 100-year FEMA flood elevations in many parts of Middlesex, Union, Essex, Hudson, and Bergen Counties, and peak storm-tide elevations at many locations in Monmouth County exceeded the 500-year recurrence interval. A level 1 HAZUS (HAZards United States) analysis was done for the counties in New Jersey affected by flooding to estimate total building stock losses. The aggregated total building stock losses estimated by HAZUS for New Jersey, on the basis of the final inundation verified by USGS high-water marks, was almost $19 billion. A comparison of Hurricane Sandy with historic coastal storms showed that peak storm-tide elevations associated with Hurricane Sandy exceeded most of the previously documented elevations associated with the storms of December 1992, March 1962, September 1960, and September 1944 at many coastal communities in New Jersey. This scientific investigation report was prepared in cooperation with FEMA to document flood processes and flood damages resulting from this storm and to assist in future flood mitigation actions in New Jersey.

New Jersey↗

USGS2011

Monitoring habitat restoration projects: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Pacific Region Partners for Fish and Wildlife Program and Coastal Program Protocol

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's (FWS) Pacific Region (Region 1) includes more than 158 million acres (almost 247,000 square miles) of land base in Idaho, Oregon, Washington, Hawai`i, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, American Samoa, Guam, the Republic of Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Republic of the Marshall Islands. Region 1 is ecologically diverse with landscapes that range from coral reefs, broadleaf tropical forests, and tropical savannahs in the Pacific Islands, to glacial streams and lakes, lush old-growth rainforests, inland fjords, and coastal shoreline in the Pacific Northwest, to the forested mountains, shrub-steppe desert, and native grasslands in the Inland Northwest. Similarly, the people of the different landscapes perceive, value, and manage their natural resources in ways unique to their respective regions and cultures. The Partners for Fish and Wildlife Program (Partners Program) and Coastal Program work with a variety of partners in Region 1 including individual landowners, watershed councils, land trusts, Soil and Water Conservation Districts, non-governmental organizations, Tribal governments, Native Hawaiian organizations, and local, State, and Federal agencies. The Partners Program is the FWS's vanguard for working with private landowners to voluntarily restore and conserve fish and wildlife habitat. Using non-regulatory incentives, the Partners Program engages willing partners to conserve and protect valuable fish and wildlife habitat on their property and in their communities. This is accomplished by providing the funding support and technical and planning tools needed to make on-the-ground conservation affordable, feasible, and effective. The primary goals of the Pacific Region Partners Program are to: Promote citizen and community-based stewardship efforts for fish and wildlife conservation Contribute to the recovery of at-risk species, Protect the environmental integrity of the National Wildlife Refuges, Contribute to the implementation of the State Comprehensive Wildlife Conservation Strategies, and Help achieve the objectives of the National Fish Habitat Partnerships and regionally based bird conservation plans (for example, North American Waterfowl Management Plan, U.S. Pacific Island Shorebird Conservation Plans, Intermountain West Regional Shorebird Plan, etc.). The Partners Program accomplishes these priorities by: Developing and maintaining strong partnerships, and delivering on-the-ground habitat restoration projects designed to reestablish habitat function and restore natural processes; Addressing key habitat limiting factors for declining species; Providing corridors for wildlife and decrease impediments to native fish and wildlife migration; and Enhancing native plant communities by reducing invasive species and improving native species composition. The Coastal Program is a voluntary fish and wildlife conservation program that focuses on watershed-scale, long-term collaborative resource planning and on-the-ground restoration projects in high-priority coastal areas. The Coastal Program conducts planning and restoration work on private, State, and Federal lands, and partnerships with other agencies-Native American Tribes, citizens, and organizations are emphasized. Coastal Program goals include restoring and protecting coastal habitat, providing technical and cost-sharing assistance where appropriate, supporting community-based restoration, collecting and developing information on the status of and threats to fish and wildlife, and using outreach to promote stewardship of coastal resources. The diversity of habitats and partners in Region 1 present many opportunities for conducting restoration projects. Faced with this abundance of opportunity, the Partners Program and Coastal Program must ensure that limited staffing and project dollars are allocated to benefit the highest priority resources and achieve the highest quality results for Federal trust species. In 2007, the Partners Program and Coastal Program developed a Strategic Plan to guide program operations and more efficiently conserve habitat by focusing partnership building and habitat improvement actions within 35 Partners Program Focus Areas and 9 Coastal Program Focus Areas (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2010). The Strategic Plan also contains four other goals: broaden and strengthen partnerships; improve information sharing and communications; enhance workforce; and increase accountability to ensure that program resources are used efficiently and effectively. This protocol will help achieve all goals of the Strategic Plan.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2003

Ground-water resources of Saipan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

Saipan has an area of 48 mi 2 and is the largest of the 14 islands in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI). The island is formed by volcanic rocks overlain by younger limestones. The island is situated in the western Pacific Ocean at latitude 15 o 12'N and longitude 145 o 45'E, about 3,740 mi west-southwest of Honolulu and midway between Japan and New Guinea (fig. 1). The climate on Saipan is classified as tropical marine with an average temperature of 80 o F. The natural beauty of the island and surrounding waters are the basis for a growing tourist-based economy. The resulting rapid development and increases in resident and tourist populations have added stresses to the island's limited water supplies. Freshwater resources on Saipan are not readily observable because, aside from the abundant rainfall, most freshwater occurs as ground water. Fresh ground water is found in aquifers composed mainly of fragmental limestones. About 90 percent of the municipal water supply comes from 140 shallow wells that withdraw about 11 Mgal/d. The chloride concentration of water withdrawn from production wells ranges from less than 100 mg/L for wells in the Akgak and Capital Hill well fields, to over 2,000 mg/L from wells in the Puerto Rico, Maui IV, and Marpi Quarry well fields. The chloride concentrations and rates of ground-water production are not currently adequate for providing island residents with a potable 24-hour water supply and future demands are expected to be higher. To better understand the ground-water resources of the island, and water resources on tropical islands in general, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) entered into a cooperative program with the Commonwealth Utilities Corporation (CUC). The objective of the program, initiated in 1989, is to assess the ground-water resources of Saipan and to make hydrologic information available to the CUC in support of their ongoing efforts to improve the quality and quantity of the municipal water supply. This report presents some of the results of the program including descriptions of (1) the geography and geology, (2) the occurrence of fresh ground water in permeable limestones that extend to some distance below sea level where water-level elevation is affected by ocean tides (coastal aquifers) and in limestones that overlie volcanic basement rocks above sea level (high-level aquifers), (3) the water-table configuration and directions of ground-water flow, and (4) the rainfall, ground-water withdrawal, and chloride concentrations in well water. Also described is the relation of the changes in water-table elevations to changes in sea level, rainfall, and ground-water withdrawal.

Saipan↗

USGS1974

Water quality in Rhode River at Smithsonian Institution Pier near Annapolis, Maryland, April 1970 through December 1973

Water temperature, salinity (computed from specific conductance data), turbidity, dissolved oxygen, pH, and water level data were collected by a continuously recording water quality monitor located in the Rhode River, at the Smithsonian Institution's pier near Annapolis, Md., from April 1970 through December 1973. Data, as presented in this report, consist of daily maximum and minimum values summarized by week to give weekly averages and extremes. Temperatures showed an overall range from 0.7 to 32.6°C. The water temperature data indicate successively warmer winters. Salinity ranged from 1.05 to 14.03 parts per thousand. In June 1972, salinity dropped markedly as fresh water from tropical storm Agnes entered the Rhode River from Chesapeake Bay. Most of the fresh water entering upper Chesapeake Bay as a result of tropical storm Agnes came from the Susquehanna River. Turbidity was usually low, averaging about 14 Jackson Turbidity Units; however, during spring and early summer of 1972, values averaged about 23 Jackson Turbidity Units. This increase in turbidity was due to the high Susquehanna River flows during that period. Extremes of turbidity ranged from about 5 to 80 Jackson Turbidity Units. Dissolved oxygen ranged from 0.0 to 19.8 milligrams per litre. Large daily changes in oxygen indicated a high state of biological metabolism. Values of pH ranged from 6.8 to 10.1 and daily changes coincided with oxygen changes. Tide-dominated water levels had an overall range of 5.9 feet (1.8 metres) and a mean tidal range of 1.5 feet (0.46 metres).

Maryland↗

USGS1984

Sediment concentrations and loads in the Loxahatchee River estuary, Florida, 1980-82

This study was conducted to estimate the magnitude of sediment loads and the general spatial and temporal patterns of sediment transport in the Loxahatchee River estuary, Florida. Mean concentrations of suspended sediment generally were higher in the Jupiter Inlet area than in the remainder of the embayment area. Concentrations of suspended sediment varied with season and weather conditions. Concentrations in selected tributaries following Tropical Storm Dennis in August 1981 immediately increased as much as 16 times over concentrations before the storm. Suspended-sediment loads from the tributaries were also highly seasonal and storm related. During a 61-day period of above-average rainfall that included Tropical Storm Dennis, 5 major tributaries discharged 926 tons (short) of suspended sediment to the estuary, accounting for 74 percent of the input for the 1981 water year and 49 percent of the input for the 20-month study period. Suspended-sediment loads at Jupiter Inlet and at the mouth of the estuary embayment on both incoming and outgoing tides far exceeded tributary loads, but the direction of long-term, net tidal transport was not determined. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2002

Effects of ENSO on weather-type frequencies and properties at New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Examination of historical climate records indicates a significant relation between the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal temperature and precipitation in Louisiana. In this study, a 40 yr record of twice daily (06:00 and 15:00 h local time) weather types are used to study the effects of ENSO variability on the local climate at New Orleans, Louisiana. Tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) for the NINO3.4 region are used to define ENSO events (i.e. El Nino and La Nina events), and daily precipitation and temperature data for New Orleans are used to define weather-type precipitation and temperature properties. Data for winters (December through February) 1962-2000 are analyzed. The 39 winters are divided into 3 categories; winters with NINO3.4 SST anomalies < -1degreesC (La Nina events), winters with NINO3.4 anomalies > 1degreesC (El Nino events), and neutral conditions (all other years). For each category, weather-type frequencies and properties (i.e. precipitation and temperature) are determined and analyzed. Results indicate that El Nino events primarily affect precipitation characteristics of weather types at New Orleans, whereas the effects of La Nina events are most apparent in weather-type frequencies. During El Nino events, precipitation for some of the weather types is greater than during neutral and La Nina conditions and is related to increased water vapor transport from the Tropics to the Gulf of Mexico. The changes in weather-type frequencies during La Nina events are indicative of a northward shift in storm tracks and/or a decrease in storm frequency in southern Louisiana.

Louisiana↗

USGS1993

Modelling the seasonality of subsurface light and primary production in the Arabian Sea

Seasonal changes in mixed-layer depth and phytoplankton biomass in the Arabian Sea are assessed with climatologies of ship-based hydrographic measurements and ocean-color observations from satellite. At the close of the intermonsoons in November and especially May, the open Arabian Sea resembles the stereotypic, unperturbed tropical ocean, with a thin oligotrophic mixed layer and a pronounced subsurface chlorophyll maximum. Both the northeast and southwest monsoons disrupt this typical tropical hydrography through mixed-layer deepening and eutrophication in the central and northern Arabian Sea. Computations using a spectral model of light penetration suggest that seasonal changes in mixed-layer thickness and phytoplankton concentration result in pronounced fluctuations through the annual cycle in the radiant flux reaching the base of the mixed layer. At the close of the fall and spring intermonsoons the base of the model euphotic zone is in the thermocline across all of the open Arabian Sea. The euphotic zone appears to rise into the mixed layer of the northern Arabian Sea during both the winter and summer monsoons. Strong seasonality in total primary production and its partitioning between the mixed layer and thermocline is predicted byb a photo-synthesis-irradiance model for a site in the western Arabian Sea (14.36 ° N, 57.38° E). Modeled mixed-layer primary production depicts an intense peak for the southwest monsoon and a secondary northeast monsoon peak separated by intermonsoon period of low production. During the fall and spring intermonsoons, in the presence of a subsurface clorophyll maximum, the model estimate of primary production in the thermocline exceeds that in the mixed layer. Our model calculations suggest that the subsurface clorophyll maximum present in the Arabian Sea during the spring intermonsoon is a precursor of the regional, summer, phytoplankton bloom.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗

USGS2024

Marine heatwaves affect breeding, diet and population size but not body condition of a range-edge little penguin colony

Significant marine heatwaves (MHWs) developed along the Western Australian coast in 1999 and 2011. Despite ecosystem losses and the southwards occurrence of many tropical fish species during and after the extreme MHW in 2011, there have been few studies on the effects of this MHW on seabirds, and no biological impacts related to the 1999 MHW have been reported. Using data from 1986-2019, we investigated the impacts of these events on breeding outcomes, body condition, diet composition, population size and mortality of little penguins on Penguin Island, in the temperate waters off Western Australia. Breeding outcomes were negatively impacted by the MHWs but body condition was not. Diet composition changed after the MHW, with sandy sprat Hyperlophus vittatus , the penguins’ typical major prey component, replaced by scaly mackerel Sardinella lemuru , a tropical fish species. Using an open robust design analysis that accounts for imperfect capture probabilities and staggered annual arrival and departure dates, we found that the population decreased by 80% following the 2011 MHW. Finally, more penguins died from starvation or from novel protozoal parasitic infections in 2011 and 2012 that were potentially introduced with the changed diet. This research highlights that the temporal and spatial influence of MHWs on seabirds depends on several factors. Furthermore, the magnitude and direction of a prey species’ response can be very localised and have significant impacts on avian predators. There are no obvious ways to mediate climate effects, but perhaps measures taken to reduce any synergistic impacts on prey abundance, particularly during MHW events, could be effective.

Penguin Island↗

USGS2021

Recent carbon storage and burial exceed historic rates in the San Juan Bay estuary peri-urban mangrove forests (Puerto Rico, United States)

Mangroves sequester significant quantities of organic carbon (C) because of high rates of burial in the soil and storage in biomass. We estimated mangrove forest C storage and accumulation rates in aboveground and belowground components among five sites along an urbanization gradient in the San Juan Bay Estuary, Puerto Rico. Sites included the highly urbanized and clogged Caño Martin Peña in the western half of the estuary, a series of lagoons in the center of the estuary, and a tropical forest reserve (Piñones) in the easternmost part. Radiometrically dated cores were used to determine sediment accretion and soil C storage and burial rates. Measurements of tree dendrometers coupled with allometric equations were used to estimate aboveground biomass. Estuary-wide mangrove forest C storage and accumulation rates were estimated using interpolation methods and coastal vegetation cover data. In recent decades (1970–2016), the highly urbanized Martin Peña East (MPE) site with low flushing had the highest C storage and burial rates among sites. The MPE soil carbon burial rate was over twice as great as global estimates. Mangrove forest C burial rates in recent decades were significantly greater than historic decades (1930–1970) at Caño Martin Peña and Piñones. Although MPE and Piñones had similarly low flushing, the landscape settings (clogged canal vs forest reserve) and urbanization (high vs low) were different. Apparently, not only urbanization, but site-specific flushing patterns, landscape setting, and soil fertility affected soil C storage and burial rates. There was no difference in C burial rates between historic and recent decades at the San José and La Torrecilla lagoons. Mangrove forests had soil C burial rates ranging from 88 g m –2 y –1 at the San José lagoon to 469 g m –2 y –1 at the MPE in recent decades. Watershed anthropogenic CO 2 emissions (1.56 million Mg C y –1 ) far exceeded the annual mangrove forest C storage rates (aboveground biomass plus soils: 17,713 Mg C y –1 ). A combination of maintaining healthy mangrove forests and reducing anthropogenic emissions might be necessary to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in urban, tropical areas.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2021

Recent nitrogen storage and accumulation rates in mangrove soils exceed historic rates in the urbanized San Juan Bay Estuary (Puerto Rico, United States)

Tropical mangrove forests have been described as “coastal kidneys,” promoting sediment deposition and filtering contaminants, including excess nutrients. Coastal areas throughout the world are experiencing increased human activities, resulting in altered geomorphology, hydrology, and nutrient inputs. To effectively manage and sustain coastal mangroves, it is important to understand nitrogen (N) storage and accumulation in systems where human activities are causing rapid changes in N inputs and cycling. We examined N storage and accumulation rates in recent (1970 – 2016) and historic (1930 – 1970) decades in the context of urbanization in the San Juan Bay Estuary (SJBE, Puerto Rico), using mangrove soil cores that were radiometrically dated. Local anthropogenic stressors can alter N storage rates in peri-urban mangrove systems either directly by increasing N soil fertility or indirectly by altering hydrology (e.g., dredging, filling, and canalization). Nitrogen accumulation rates were greater in recent decades than historic decades at Piñones Forest and Martin Peña East. Martin Peña East was characterized by high urbanization, and Piñones, by the least urbanization in the SJBE. The mangrove forest at Martin Peña East fringed a poorly drained canal and often received raw sewage inputs, with N accumulation rates ranging from 17.7 to 37.9 g m –2 y –1 in recent decades. The Piñones Forest was isolated and had low flushing, possibly exacerbated by river damming, with N accumulation rates ranging from 18.6 to 24.2 g m –2 y –1 in recent decades. Nearly all (96.3%) of the estuary-wide mangrove N (9.4 Mg ha –1 ) was stored in the soils with 7.1 Mg ha –1 sequestered during 1970–2017 (0–18 cm) and 2.3 Mg ha –1 during 1930–1970 (19–28 cm). Estuary-wide mangrove soil N accumulation rates were over twice as great in recent decades (0.18 ± 0.002 Mg ha –1 y –1 ) than historically (0.08 ± 0.001 Mg ha –1 y –1 ). Nitrogen accumulation rates in SJBE mangrove soils in recent times were twofold larger than the rate of human-consumed food N that is exported as wastewater (0.08 Mg ha –1 y –1 ), suggesting the potential for mangroves to sequester human-derived N. Conservation and effective management of mangrove forests and their surrounding watersheds in the Anthropocene are important for maintaining water quality in coastal communities throughout tropical regions.

Puerto Rico, San Juan Bay Estuary↗

USGS2022

Seabird vulnerability to oil: Exposure potential, sensitivity, and uncertainty in the northern Gulf of Mexico

The northern Gulf of Mexico (nGoM) is a globally important region for oil extraction and supports a diverse assemblage of marine birds. Due to their frequent contact with surface waters, diverse foraging strategies, and the ease with which oil adheres to feathers, seabirds are particularly susceptible to hydrocarbon contamination. Given the chronic and acute exposure of seabirds to oiling and a lack of studies that focus on the exposure of seabirds to oiling in sub-tropical and tropical regions, a greater understanding of the vulnerability of seabirds to oil in the nGoM appears warranted. We present an oil vulnerability index for seabirds in the nGoM tailored to the current state of knowledge using new, spatiotemporally expensive vessel-based seabird observations. We use information on the exposure and sensitivity of seabirds to oil to rank seabird vulnerability. Exposure variables characterized the potential to encounter oil and gas (O&G). Sensitivity variables characterized the potential impact of seabirds interacting with O&G and are related to life history and productivity. We also incorporated uncertainty in each variable, identifying data gaps. We found that the percent of seabirds’ habitat defined as highly suitable within 10 km of an O&G platform ranged from 0%-65% among 24 species. Though O&G platforms only overlap with 15% of highly suitable seabird habitat, overlap occurs in areas of moderate to high vulnerability of seabirds, particularly along the shelf-slope. Productivity-associated sensitivity variables were primarily responsible for creating the gradient in vulnerability scores and had greater uncertainty than exposure variables. Highly vulnerable species (e.g., Northern gannet ( Morus bassanus )) tended to have high exposure to the water surface via foraging behaviors (e.g., plunge-diving), older age at first breeding, and an extended incubating and fledging period compared to less vulnerable species (e.g., Pomarine jaeger ( Stercorarius pomarinus )). Uncertainty related to productivity could be reduced through at-colony monitoring. Strategic seabird satellite tagging could help target monitoring efforts to colonies known to use the nGoM, and continued vessel-based observations could improve habitat characterization. As offshore energy development in the nGoM continues, managers and researchers could use these vulnerability ranks to identify information gaps to prioritize research and focal species.

northern Gulf of Mexico↗

USGS2025

Mapping global coral vulnerability to stony coral tissue loss disease: Implications for biosecurity and conservation

Stony Coral Tissue Loss Disease (SCTLD) has devastated Caribbean coral reefs since 2014, but its potential for global impact remains uncertain. We developed predictive models to assess the worldwide vulnerability of coral reefs to SCTLD under different origin and spread hypotheses. Using random forest regression models incorporating coral taxonomy and zooxanthellae clade associations from 52 taxa, we projected SCTLD susceptibility and mortality patterns globally using six indices: Mean susceptibility per genus per location, Summed susceptibilities across genera per location, Summed susceptibilities across genera per realm, Mean mortality per genus per location, Summed mortalities across genera per location, and Summed mortalities across genera per realm. Models demonstrated strong predictive performance (R² = 0.57 for susceptibility; R² = 0.73 for mortality) and revealed that about 7% of coral genera per location are potentially susceptible to SCTLD. While mean susceptibility and mortality per genus were highest in the Tropical Atlantic, the summed susceptibility and mortality across genera were much higher in the biodiverse Central Indo-Pacific. Natural barriers could limit SCTLD’s spread, including the mid-Atlantic gap and the low diversity of the Tropical Eastern Pacific, supporting the contained disease hypothesis. However, the widespread distribution of susceptible genera across coral reef realms indicates significant vulnerability should SCTLD circumvent these barriers through human-mediated transport, particularly via ballast water or the aquarium trade. If SCTLD is an invasive pathogen originating in the Pacific, as shipping patterns for the aquarium trade suggest, mortality in its native range would likely be lower than our projections. These findings point to targeted intervention strategies, including enhanced monitoring at key locations, assessment of biosecurity needs in high-risk areas, and prioritized conservation efforts in vulnerable high-diversity regions to prevent SCTLD from spreading globally.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗

USGS2024

Modeling the effects of temperature and limiting nutrients on the competition of an invasive floating plant, Pontederia crassipes, with submersed vegetation in a shallow lake

The potential for a non-native plant species to invade a new habitat depends on broadscale factors such as climate, local factors such as nutrient availability, and the biotic community of the habitat into which the plant species is introduced. We developed a spatially explicit model to assess the risk of expansion of a floating invasive aquatic plant species (FAV), the water hyacinth ( Pontederia crassipes ), an invader in the United States, beyond its present range. Our model used known data on growth rates and competition with a native submersed aquatic macrophyte (SAV). In particular, the model simulated an invasion into a habitat with a mean annual temperature different from its own growth optimum, in which we also simulated seasonal fluctuations in temperature. Twenty different nutrient concentrations and eight different temperature scenarios, with different mean annual amplitudes of seasonal temperature variation around the mean of the invaded habitat, were simulated. In each case, the ability of the water hyacinth to invade and either exclude or coexist with the native vegetation was determined. As the temperature pattern was changed from tropical towards increasingly cooler temperate levels, the competitive advantage shifted from the tropical FAV to the more temperate SAV, with a wide range in which coexistence occurred. High nutrient concentrations allowed the coexistence of FAV, even at cooler annual temperatures. But even at the highest nutrient concentrations in the model, the FAV was unlikely to persist under the current climates of latitudes in the Southeastern United States above that of Northern Alabama. This result may have some implications for where control efforts need to be concentrated.

Plants↗

USGS2019

Seasonal fluxes of dissolved nutrients in streams of catchments dominated by swidden agriculture in the Maya Forest of Belize, Central America

The biogeochemistry of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in tropical streams and rivers is strongly regulated by the pronounced seasonality of rainfall and associated changes in hydrology. Land use and land cover change (LULCC) can also be a dominant driver of changes in stream biogeochemistry yet responses are not fully understood and vary across different LULCC scenarios. We measured dissolved and total nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations in four tributary streams of the Temash River watershed in southern Belize, Central America. The dominant land use practice in each of the four study catchments was swidden agriculture. We documented a strong seasonal control on the export of nutrients from these study systems with daily N fluxes increasing approximately 10-fold during the onset of the rainy season. P fluxes increased almost 4-fold during the same time period. Comparisons with nutrient export coefficients from other tropical streams suggest that nutrient export in streams of the Temash River watershed is similar or slightly lower. Establishing improved understanding of the terrestrial and hydrologic controls of N and P transport across the terrestrial-aquatic boundary and developing a comprehensive nutrient budget that includes inputs and outputs associated with crop production is warranted in future work.

Water↗

USGS2021

Land use change influences ecosystem function in headwater streams of the Lowland Amazon Basin

Intensive agriculture alters headwater streams, but our understanding of its effects is limited in tropical regions where rates of agricultural expansion and intensification are currently greatest. Riparian forest protections are an important conservation tool, but whether they provide adequate protection of stream function in these areas of rapid tropical agricultural development has not been well studied. To address these gaps, we conducted a study in the lowland Brazilian Amazon, an area undergoing rapid cropland expansion, to assess the effects of land use change on organic matter dynamics (OM), ecosystem metabolism, and nutrient concentrations and uptake (nitrate and phosphate) in 11 first order streams draining forested ( n = 4) or cropland ( n = 7) watersheds with intact riparian forests. We found that streams had similar terrestrial litter inputs, but OM biomass was lower in cropland streams. Gross primary productivity was low and not different between land uses, but ecosystem respiration and net ecosystem production showed greater seasonality in cropland streams. Although we found no difference in stream concentrations of dissolved nutrients, phosphate uptake exceeded nitrate uptake in all streams and was higher in cropland than forested streams. This indicates that streams will be more retentive of phosphorus than nitrogen and that if fertilizer nitrogen reaches streams, it will be exported in stream networks. Overall, we found relatively subtle differences in stream function, indicating that riparian buffers have thus far provided protection against major functional shifts seen in other systems. However, the changes we did observe were linked to watershed scale shifts in hydrology, water temperature, and light availability resulting from watershed deforestation. This has implications for the conservation of tens of thousands of stream kilometers across the expanding Amazon cropland region.

Tanguro Ranch↗