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At least 577 records · Page 32Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Nitrate Trends in Minnesota Rivers

The objective of this study was to assess long-term trends (30 to 35 years) of flow-adjusted concentrations of nitrite+nitrate-N (hereinafter referred to as nitrate) in a way that would allow us to discern changing trends. Recognizing that these trends are commonly different from one river to another river and from one part of the state to another, our objective was to examine as many river monitoring sites across the state as possible for which sufficient long term streamflow and concentration data were available.

Minnesota↗
USGS2012

Great lakes prey fish populations: a cross-basin overview of status and trends based on bottom trawl surveys, 1978-2012

The assessment of prey fish stocks in the Great Lakes have been conducted annually with bottom trawls since the 1970s by the Great Lakes Science Center, sometimes assisted by partner agencies. These stock assessments provide data on the status and trends of prey fish that are consumed by important commercial and recreational fishes. Although all these annual surveys are conducted using bottom trawls, they differ among the lakes in the proportion of the lake covered, seasonal timing, bottom trawl gear used, and the manner in which the trawl is towed (across or along bottom contours). Because each assessment is unique in one or more important aspects, direct comparison of prey fish catches among lakes is not straightforward. However, all of the assessments produce indices of abundance or biomass that can be standardized to facilitate comparisons of status and trends across all the Great Lakes. In this report, population indices were standardized to the highest value for a time series within each lake for the following principal prey species: cisco ( Coregonus artedi ), bloater ( C. hoyi ), rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax ), and alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ). Indices were also provided for round goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ), an invasive fish that has proliferated throughout the basin over the past 18 years. These standardized indices represent the best available long-term indices of relative abundance for these fishes across all of the Great Lakes. In this report, standardized indices are presented in graphical form along with synopses to provide a short, informal cross-basin summary of the status and trends of principal prey fishes. In keeping with this intent, tables, references, and a detailed discussion were omitted.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2013

Statewide summary for Louisiana: Chapter E in Emergent wetlands status and trends in the northern Gulf of Mexico: 1950-2010

Throughout the past century, emergent wetlands have been declining across the Gulf of Mexico. Emergent wetland ecosystems provide a variety of resources, including plant and wildlife habitat, commercial and recreational economic activity, and natural barriers against storms. As emergent wetland losses increase, so does the need for information on the causes and effects of this loss, emergent wetland mapping, monitoring and restoration efforts, and education. The U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Gulf of Mexico Program are committed to restoring, enhancing, and protecting these important ecosystems. The purpose of this report is to provide scientists, managers, and citizens with valuable baseline information on the status and trends of emergent wetlands along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. This study examines the emergent wetlands of eight individual estuarine areas within the northern Gulf of Mexico region, as well as presenting statewide summaries for Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. Each estuarine area is detailed in vignettes that address current status and historical trends of estuarine and palustrine emergent wetlands, emergent wetlands mapping and monitoring, causes of status change, restoration and enhancement activities, background information for the study area, and the methodology employed to analyze and document the historical trends and current status of emergent wetlands. This chapter examines the estuaries of Louisiana.

Louisiana↗
USGS2014

Status of whitebarkpine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem: A step-trend analysis comparing 2004-2007 to 2008-2011

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) is a foundation and keystone species in upper subalpine environments of the northern Rocky Mountains that strongly influences the biodiversity and productivity of high-elevation ecosystems (Tomback et al. 2001, Ellison et al. 2005). Throughout its historic range, whitebark pine has decreased significantly as a major component of high-elevation forests. As a result, it is critical to understand the challenges to whitebark pine—not only at the tree and stand level, but also as these factors influence the distribution of whitebark pine across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). In 2003, the National Park Service (NPS) Greater Yellowstone Inventory & Monitoring Network identified whitebark pine as one of twelve significant natural resource indicators or vital signs to monitor (Jean et al. 2005, Fancy et al. 2009) and initiated a long-term, collaborative monitoring program. Partners in this effort include the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Forest Service, and Montana State University with representatives from each comprising the Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine Monitoring Working Group. The objectives of the monitoring program are to assess trends in (1) the proportion of live, whitebark pine trees (>1.4-m tall) infected with white pine blister rust (blister rust); (2) to document blister rust infection severity by the occurrence and location of persisting and new infections; (3) to determine mortality of whitebark pine trees and describe potential factors contributing to the death of trees; and (4) to assess the multiple components of the recruitment of understory whitebark pine into the reproductive population. In this report we summarize the past eight years (2004-2011) of whitebark pine status and trend monitoring in the GYE. Our study area encompasses six national forests (NF), two national parks (NP), as well as state and private lands in portions of Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho; this area is collectively described as the GYE here and in other studies. The sampling design is a probabilistic, twostage cluster design with stands of whitebark pine as the primary units and 10x50 m belt transects as the secondary units. Primary sampling units (stands) were selected randomly from a sample frame of approximately 10,770 mapped pure and mixed whitebark pine stands ≥2.0 hectares in the GYE (Dixon 1997, Landenburger 2012). From 2004 through 2007 (monitoring transect establishment or initial time-step), we established 176 permanent belt transects (secondary sampling units=176) in 150 whitebark pine stands and permanently marked approximately 4,740 individual trees >1.4 m tall to monitor long-term changes in blister rust infection and survival rates. Between 2008 and 2011 (revisit time-step), these same 176 transects were surveyed and again all previously tagged trees were observed for changes in blister rust infection and survival status. Objective 1. Using a combined ratio estimator, we estimated the proportion of live trees infected in the GYE in the initial time-step (2004-2007) to be 0.22 (0.031 SE). Following the completion of all surveys in the revisit time-step (2008-2011), we estimated the proportion of live trees infected with white pine blister rust as 0.23 (0.028 SE; Table 2). We detected no significant change in the proportion of trees infected in the GYE between the two time-steps. Objective 2. We documented blister rust canker locations as occurring in the canopy or bole. We compared changes in canker position between the initial time-step (2004-2007) and the revisit time-step (2008-2011) in order to assess changes in infection severity. This analysis included the 3,795 trees tagged during the initial time-step that were located and documented as alive at the end of the revisit time-step. At the end of the revisit time-step, we found 1,217 trees infected with blister rust. This includes the 287 newly tagged trees in the revisit time step of which 14 had documented infections. Of these 1,217 trees, 780 trees were infected with blister rust in both time steps. Trees with only canopy cankers made up approximately 43% (519 trees) of the total number of trees infected with blister rust at the end of the revisit time-step, while trees with only bole cankers comprised 20% (252 trees), and those with both canopy and bole cankers included 37% (446 trees) of the infected sample. A bole infection is considered to be more consequential than a canopy canker, as it compromises not only the overall longevity of the tree, but its functional capacity for reproductive output as well (Kendall and Arno 1990, Campbell and Antos 2000, McDonald and Hoff 2001, Schwandt and Kegley 2004). In addition to infection location, we also documented infection transition between the canopy and bole. Of the 780 live trees that were infected with blister rust in both time-steps, approximately 31% (242) maintained canopy cankers and 36% (281) retained bole infections at the end of the revisit time-step. Infection transition from canopy to bole occurred in 30% (234) of the revisit time-step trees while 3% (23) transitioned from bole to canopy infections during this period. Objective 3. To determine whitebark pine mortality, we resurveyed all belt transects to reassess the life status of permanently tagged trees >1.4 m tall. We compared the total number of live tagged trees recorded during monitoring transect establishment to the total number of resurveyed dead tagged trees recorded during the revisit time-step and identified all potential mortality-influencing conditions (blister rust, mountain pine beetle, fire and other). By the end of the revisit time-step, we observed a total of 975 dead tagged whitebark pine trees; using a ratio estimator, this represents a loss of approximately 20% (SE=4.35%) of the original live tagged tree population (GYWPMWG 2012). Objective 4. To investigate the proportion of live, reproducing tagged trees, we divided the total number of positively identified cone-bearing trees by the total number of live trees in the tagged tree sample at the end of the revisit time-step. To approximate the average density of recruitment trees per stand, trees ≤1.4 m tall were summed by stand (within the 500 m² transect area) and divided by the total number of stands. Reproducing trees made up approximately 24% (996 trees) of the total live tagged population at the end of the revisit time-step. Differentiating between whitebark pine and limber pine seedlings or saplings is problematic given the absence of cones or cone scars. Therefore, understory summaries as presented in this report may include individuals of both species when they are sympatric in a stand. The average density of small trees ≤1.4 m tall was 53 understory trees per 500 m². Raw counts of these understory individuals ranged from 0-635 small trees per belt transect. In addition, a total of 287 trees were added to the tagged tree population by the end of 2011. These newly tagged trees were individuals that upon subsequent revisits had reached a height of >1.4 m tall and subsequently added to the sample. Throughout the past decade in the GYE, monitoring has helped document shifts in whitebark pine forests; whitebark pine stands have been impacted by insect, pathogen, wildland fire, and other disturbance events. Blister rust infection is ubiquitous throughout the ecosystem and infection proportions are variable across the region. And while we have documented mortality of whitebark pine, we have also recorded considerable recruitment. We provide this first step-trend report as a quantifiable baseline for understanding the state of whitebark pine in the GYE. Many aspects of whitebark pine health are highly variable across the range of its distribution in the GYE. Through sustained implementation of the monitoring program, we will continue efforts to document and quantify whitebark pine forest dynamics as they arise under periodic upsurges in insect, pathogen, fire episodes, and climatic events in the GYE. Since its inception, this monitoring program perseveres as one of the only sustained longterm efforts conducted in the GYE with a singular purpose to track the health and status of this prominent keystone species.

Natural Resource Technical Report↗
USGS2014

Trends in the capture fisheries in Cuyo East Pass, Philippines

Findings are presented of a comprehensive analysis of time series catch and effort data from 2000 to 2006 collected from a multi-species, multi-gear and two-sector (municipal and commercial) capture fisheries in Cuyo East Pass, Philippines. Multivariate techniques were used to determine temporal variation in species composition and gear selectivity that corresponded with annual trends in catch and effort. Distinct annual variation in species composition was found for five fisheries classified according to sector-gear combination, corresponding decline in catch diversity, noted shifts in gears used, and an erratic CPUE trend as a result of catch variation. These patterns and trends illustrate the occurrence of ecosystem overfishing for Cuyo East Pass. Our approach provided a holistic representation of the fishing situation, condition of the fisheries and corresponding implications to the ecosystem, fitting well within the context of the ecosystem approach to fisheries management.

Cuyo East Pass↗
USGS2010

Temperature trends and preservation rates in the Deep Tuscaloosa Formation, Judge Digby Field, Louisiana

Judge Digby Field in Pointe Coupe Parish, Louisiana, exhibits some of the highest cumulative natural gas production from the lower Tuscaloosa Formation (Upper Cretaceous) in the Gulf Coast. The average production depth in Judge Digby Field is approximately 22,000 ft. The 400°F temperatures typically encountered at depth in Judge Digby Field are anomalously low when compared to temperature trends extrapolated to similar depths regionally. At this depth, the minimum and maximum temperatures for all servoirs in Gulf Coast producing gas fields are 330 and 550°F, respectively; the average temperature is 430°F. The relatively depressed geothermal gradients in Judge Digby Field may be due to high sediment preservation rates, which may have delayed the thermal equilibration of the sediment package with respect to the surrounding rock. Analyzing burial history and thermal maturation indicates that the deep Tuscaloosa trend in Judge Digby Field is currently in the gas generation window. Using temperature trends as an exploration tool may have important implications for undiscovered hydrocarbons at greater depths in currently producing reservoirs, and for settings that are geologically analogous to Judge Digby Field.

Louisiana↗
USGS2020

Forest bird trends within Haleakala National Park

In 2017, the comprehensive east Maui bird surveys allowed for an update in status and evaluation of trends in bird populations within Haleakalā National Park. This report describes a finer-scale analysis of the park lands, distinguishing between the upper Kīpahulu Valley plus adjacent high-elevation areas compared to the rest of the park. I report abundance estimates and assess trends for six native and three non-native bird species within the park. Overall abundance estimates are consistent with those in previous reports, but there is some evidence for different densities between the two areas of the park, and relative densities of some species may vary from survey to survey. With two possible exceptions (native ‘apapane and non-native red-billed leiothrix), recent trends indicate that bird populations are in decline.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2020

Potomac tributary report: A summary of trends in tidal water quality and associated factors

The Potomac Tributary Report summarizes change over time in a suite of monitored tidal water quality parameters and associated potential drivers of those trends for the time period 1985 – 2018, and provides a brief description of the current state of knowledge explaining these observed changes. Water quality parameters described include surface total nitrogen (TN), surface total phosphorus (TP), spring and summer surface chlorophyll a, summer bottom dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations, and Secchi disk depth (a measure of water clarity). Results for annual surface water temperature, bottom TP, bottom TN, surface ortho-phosphate (PO4), surface dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), surface total suspended solids (TSS), and summer surface DO concentrations are provided in an Appendix. Drivers discussed include physiographic watershed characteristics, changes in N, P, and sediment loads from the watershed to tidal waters, expected effects of changing land use, and implementation of nutrient management and natural resource conservation practices. Factors internal to estuarine waters that also play a role as drivers are described including biogeochemical processes, physical forces such as wind-driven mixing of the water column, and biological factors such as phytoplankton biomass and the presence of submersed aquatic vegetation. Total nutrient concentrations have been decreasing at most stations in the Potomac River over the long-term, with improvements persisting in the last 10 years as well. These trends follow from the decreasing discharge from TN and TP sources in the watershed. The TP source reductions are not as apparent in the direct loads to the river, which may be part of the reason that tidal nutrient concentrations are not decreasing at as many stations in the short-term as the long-term. While degrading chlorophyll a and Secchi depth trends at several Potomac monitoring stations are concerning, recent improvements in summer oxygen concentrations are promising. The findings that chlorophyll a concentrations in the lower Potomac have either leveled out or improved may suggest a smaller amount of phytoplankton biomass available to fuel summer oxygen depletion. The responses of chlorophyll a, Secchi depth, and bottom DO are mixed in the Potomac tidal waters, but there are multiple possible reasons for this lag in response. Continuing to track water quality response and investigating these possibilities are important steps to understanding water quality patterns and changes in the Potomac River.

Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Viginia↗
USGS2019

Conservation status of the world’s swan populations, Cygnus sp. and Coscoroba sp.: a review of current trends and gaps in knowledge

Recent estimates of the world’s swan Cygnus sp. populations indicate that there are currently between 1.5–1.6 million birds in 8 species, including the Coscoroba Swan Coscoroba coscoroba as an honorary swan. Monitoring programmes in Europe and North America indicate that most populations increased following the introduction of national and international legislation to protect the species during the early- to mid-20th century. A switch from feeding primarily on aquatic vegetation to foraging on farmland (especially high-energy arable crops) in winter during the second half of the 20th century, is also considered a contributing factor. Trumpeter Swans Cygnus buccinator famously increased from just 69 individuals known to exist in 1935 (although small numbers were missed) to c. 76,000 at the present time, and most of the northern hemisphere swan populations have continued to show increasing/stable trends over the last 20 years. The exception to this pattern is a decline since 1995 in the Northwest European Bewick’s Swan population, following an increase in its population size during the 1970s–1980s, which is now being addressed through implementation of an International Single Species Action Plan. A proposal to change enforcement regulations of the Migratory Bird Treaty Act in the United States is also of concern, as potentially undermining protection for Trumpeter Swans in North America, illustrating the importance of politics and legislation as well as on-the-ground measures for species conservation. Elsewhere, less is known about the trends and conservation status for swans in central and eastern Asia, though count and research programmes introduced in China, added to those underway in Japan and Korea, have recently greatly enhanced our knowledge of swan populations on the East Asian flyway. Trends for the Black Swan Cygnus atratus in Australia and for the Black-necked Swan Cygnus melancoryphus in South America are also poorly known, because of the large numbers involved for the former and a lack of coordinated counts across difficult terrain for the latter. These southern hemisphere species are considered vulnerable to water resource developments ( i.e . where diversion of water is shrinking wetlands), and to droughts associated with El Nino events and climate change. More extensive monitoring is therefore required to determine whether swan populations and species are stable, fluctuating or in decline.

Wildfowl↗
USGS2010

Establishing a nationwide baseline of historical burn-severity data to support monitoring of trends in wildfire effects and national fire policies

There is a need to provide agency leaders, elected officials, and the general public with summary information regarding the effects of large wildfires. Recently, the Wildland Fire Leadership Council (WFLC), which implements and coordinates National Fire Plan (NFP) and Federal Wildland Fire Management Policies adopted a strategy to monitor the effectiveness and effects of the National Fire Plan and the Healthy Forests Restoration Act. One component of this strategy is to assess the environmental impacts of large wildland fires and identify the trends of burn severity on all lands across the United States. To that end, WFLC has sponsored a 6-year project, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS), which requires the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service (USDA-FS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to map and assess the burn severity for all large current and historical fires. Using Landsat data and the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) algorithm, the USGS/EROS Data Center and USDA-FS/ Remote Sensing Applications Center will map burn severity of all fires occurring from 1984 to 2010. Only fires that are greater than 500 ac in the East, and 1,000 ac in the West will be included. We anticipate mapping a total of more than 9,000 historical fires and fires that occur during the course of the study. The MTBS project will generate burn-severity data, maps, and reports, which will be available for use at local, State, and national levels to evaluate trends in burn severity and help develop and assess the effectiveness of land management decisions. Additionally, the information developed will provide a baseline from which to monitor the recovery and health of fire-affected landscapes over time. Spatial and tabular data quantifying burn severity will augment existing information used to estimate risk associated with a range of current and future resource threats. For example, fire severity data along with associated biophysical characteristics provide an analytical basis for assessing risk from invasive species as well as native insects and pathogens. All data and results will be distributed to the public via a Web interface.

General Technical Report↗
USGS2024

Distribution and trends of endemic Hawaiian waterbirds, 1986–2023

This study updates the status assessment of four endemic endangered Hawaiian waterbird species—ae‘o (Hawaiian stilt, Himantopus mexicanus knudseni), ‘alae ke‘oke‘o (Hawaiian coot, Fulica alai), ‘alae ‘ula (Hawaiian gallinule, Gallinula galeata sandvicensis), and koloa maoli (Hawaiian duck, Anas wyvilliana)—from 1986 to 2016 by incorporating new data from 2017–2023. State-space models, which account for biological and sampling variation, were fitted to estimate population sizes and trends from both core and non-core wetland survey sites. Long-term trends (1986–2023) largely show increasing populations for all four species, but recent short-term trajectories (2013–2023) are to a greater degree than previous analyses, predominantly negative, indicating accentuated declines in some island populations. Summer counts have declined relative to winter counts over the 38-year period, indicating potential changes in habitat availability and breeding patterns due to shifting rainfall patterns. Although negative trends were apparent in some non-core wetlands, our study underscores the importance of both core and non-core wetlands for waterbird populations.

Hawaii↗
USGS2025

Inferring Brown-Capped Rosy-Finch demography and breeding distribution trends from long-term wintering data in New Mexico

The three North American Rosy-Finch species (Brown-capped [ Leucosticte australis ], Black [ L. atrata ], and Gray-crowned [ L. tephrocotis ]) are among the most climate-threatened species in the United States. New Mexico is an important location for investigating the effects of climate change because it is the southernmost location in which Brown-capped Rosy-Finches breed and the southernmost location where all three Rosy-Finch species co-occur during winter. In the context of climate change, this range boundary is important to study because it is the first part of the range anticipated to cross a threshold of unsuitability for these species with increasing temperatures. Rosy-Finches are difficult to study during the breeding season due to the high elevation and remoteness of their breeding grounds; therefore, winter studies may lend insight into population trends and provide direction for conservation actions based on knowledge of the breeding origins of wintering birds. The goals of our study were to investigate long-term survival and migration trends from wintering Brown-capped Rosy-Finches in New Mexico and evaluate the efficacy of radio frequency identification (RFID)-equipped artificial feeders to monitor population trends. As of May 2025, we have conducted a robust design survival analysis on 22 years of mark-recapture data from a particular wintering site in New Mexico, assessed patterns in the breeding origins of individuals captured at this site using stable isotope analysis, and examined patterns in data collected via RFID. Our main findings from this study are that annual survival probability of Rosy-Finches wintering in New Mexico is low compared to that of other migratory passerines, that Brown-capped Rosy-Finches wintering in New Mexico likely originate from a variety of locations across their breeding range, and that RFID monitoring is useful in improving survival estimates in Rosy-Finches, particularly in short-term studies.

New Mexico↗
USGS1985

Contaminant trends in lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) of the upper Great Lakes

Contaminant body burdens in lake trout from the Upper Great Lakes have been monitored since 1970 on Lake Michigan and since 1977 and 1978 on Lakes Superior and Huron by USEPA, Great Lakes National Program Office and USFWS, Great Lakes Fishery Laboratory. Analysis of the Lake Michigan data shows that mean PCB concentrations declined from a maximum of 22.91 mg/kg in 1974 to 5.63 in 1982. Mean total DDT concentrations declined from 19.19 mg/kg in 1970 to 2.74 mg/kg in 1982. The decline in both contaminants closely followed first order loss kinetics. If the current decline continues, PCB concentrations will decline to the USFDA tolerance of 2.0 mg/kg in 1988. Mean total DDT concentrations will fall to the IJC objective of 1.0 mg/kg by 1991. Mean dieldrin concentrations increased significantly from 0.20 mg/kg in 1971 to 0.58 mg/kg in 1979 before declining to 0.21 mg/kg in 1982. The decline from 1979-1982 followed first order loss kinetics. As this decline is not reflected in other species (bloater chubs, smelt) it will require additional years of monitoring to determine if the decline in dieldrin concentrations between 1979 and 1982 truly represents a declining trend. Contaminants in lake trout from Lake Superior and Lake Huron generally declined over the study period. The only statistically significant trend other than in Lake Michigan was for total DDT which declined significantly in Lake Superior lake trout. Large data variance and the short time frame covered (1977-1982) interfered with detection of trends on Lakes Superior and Huron.

Report↗
USGS2015

Changes in erosion and flooding risk due to long-term and cyclic oceanographic trends

We assess temporal variations in waves and sea level, which are driving factors for beach erosion and coastal flooding in the northern Gulf of Mexico. We find that long-term trends in the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion/flooding risk since the 1980s. Changes in the wave climate—which have often been ignored in earlier assessments—were at least as important as sea level rise (SLR). In the next decades, SLR will likely become the dominating driver and may in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and depending on the emission scenario) escalate the erosion/flooding risk by up to 300% over the next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the erosion/flooding risk in summer and decrease in winter relative to long-term trends.

Alabama↗
USGS2023

Waterfowl show spatiotemporal trends in influenza A H5 and H7 infections but limited taxonomic variation

Influenza A viruses in wild birds pose threats to the poultry industry, wild birds, and human health under certain conditions. Of particular importance are wild waterfowl, which are the primary reservoir of low pathogenicity influenza viruses that ultimately cause high pathogenicity outbreaks in poultry farms. Despite much work on the drivers of influenza A virus prevalence, the underlying viral subtype dynamics are still mostly unexplored. Nevertheless, understanding these dynamics, particularly for the agriculturally significant H5 and H7 subtypes, is important for mitigating the risk of outbreaks in domestic poultry farms. Here, using an expansive surveillance database, we take a large-scale look at the spatial, temporal, and taxonomic drivers in the prevalence of these two subtypes among influenza A positive wild waterfowl. We document spatiotemporal trends that are consistent with past work, particularly an uptick in H5 viruses in late autumn and H7 viruses in spring. Interestingly, despite large species differences in temporal trends in overall influenza A virus prevalence, we document only modest differences in the relative abundance of these two subtypes and little, if any, temporal differences among species. As such, it appears that differences in species' phenology, physiology, and behaviors that influence overall susceptibility to influenza A viruses play a much lesser role in relative susceptibility to different subtypes. Instead, species likely freely pass viruses among each other regardless of subtype. Importantly, despite the similarities among species documented here, individual species still may play important roles in moving viruses across large geographic areas or sustaining local outbreaks through their different migratory behaviors.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2024

Using mobile acoustic monitoring and false-positive N-mixture models to estimate bat abundance and population trends

Estimating the abundance of unmarked animal populations from acoustic data is challenging due to the inability to identify individuals and the need to adjust for observation biases including detectability (false negatives), species misclassification (false positives), and sampling exposure. Acoustic surveys conducted along mobile transects were designed to avoid counting individuals more than once, where raw counts are commonly treated as an index of abundance. More recently, false-positive abundance models have been developed to estimate abundance while accounting for imperfect detection and misclassification. We adapted these methods to model summertime abundance and trends of three species of bats at multiple spatial scales using acoustic recordings collected along mobile transects by partners of the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) from 2012 to 2020. This multiscale modeling spanned individual transect routes, larger NABat grid cells (10 km × 10 km), and across the entire extent of modeled species ranges. We estimated relationships between species abundances and a suite of abiotic and biotic predictors (landcover types, climatological variables, physiographic diversity, building density, and the impacts of white-nose syndrome [WNS]) and found varying levels of support between species. We present clear evidence of substantial declines in populations of tricolored bats ( Perimyotis subflavus ) and little brown bats ( Myotis lucifugus ), declines that corresponded in space and time with the progression of WNS, a devastating disease of hibernating bats. In contrast, our analysis revealed that similar population-wide declines probably have not occurred in big brown bats ( Eptesicus fuscus ), a species known to be less affected by WNS. This study provides the first abundance-based species distribution predictions and population trends for bats in their summer ranges in North America. These models will probably be applicable to assessing wildlife populations in other monitoring programs where acoustic data are used or where false-negative and false-positive detections are present. Finally, our abundance framework (as a spatial point pattern process) can serve as a foundation from which more sophisticated integrated species distribution models that incorporate additional streams of monitoring data (e.g., stationary acoustics, captures) can be developed for North American bats.

Ecological Monographs↗
USGS2026

American kestrel population trends and vital rates at the continental scale

The American kestrel ( Falco sparverius , hereafter referred to as kestrel) has declined across much of its North American range since at least the mid-1960s. Kestrel population dynamics have been explored through a multitude of local studies and two broad reviews of available data. Across large geographic extents, however, the demographic cause(s) of kestrel population declines remain(s) largely unknown. As part of a collaborative effort to elucidate the drivers of kestrel population declines, we developed a continental-scale integrated population model using band-recovery data, productivity data, and Breeding Bird Survey indices from 1986 to 2019 to estimate indices of annual population sizes, survival, and productivity rates across the continental United States. We detected a decline in population size of ~1%–2% per year. Overall estimates of population growth from 1986 to 2019 suggest a 29% decline in population size (95% CI = −34% to −23%). There was little evidence of a trend in brood size. However, survival of juvenile birds (mean = −0.015, SD = 0.008 and mean = −0.024, SD = 0.010 for females and males, respectively) and adult males (mean = −0.016, SD = 0.010) in the summer declined, suggesting that these vital rates could be contributing to declines in populations over time. Winter adult survival rates (mean = −0.004, SD = 0.009 and mean = −0.009, SD = 0.010 for females and males, respectively) also declined but to a lesser extent than summer survival. For juvenile birds, winter survival increased (mean = 0.006, SD = 0.008 and mean = 0.002, SD = 0.009 for females and males, respectively); however, this was not enough to offset declines in summer survival and annual survival rates declined over the time series. Annual adult survival was also low relative to previous research on kestrel survival rates. Given the importance of survival to population trends, our findings provide support for several previously proposed broad classes of factors potentially contributing to observed population declines: declines in arthropod prey, second-generation rodenticides, neonicotinoid insecticides, and predation.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2012

Spring onset variations and trends in the continental United States: past and regional assessment using temperature-based indices

Phenological data are simple yet sensitive indicators of climate change impacts on ecosystems, but observations have not been made routinely or extensively enough to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns across most continents, including North America. As an alternative, many studies use weather-based algorithms to simulate specific phenological responses. Spring Indices (SI) are a set of complex phenological models that have been successfully applied to evaluate variations and trends in the onset of spring across the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate regions. To date, SI models have been limited by only producing output in locations where both the plants’ chilling and warmth requirements are met. Here, we develop an extended form of the SI (abbreviated SI-x) that expands their application into the subtropics by ignoring chilling requirements while still retaining the utility and accuracy of the original SI (now abbreviated SI-o). The validity of the new indices is tested, and regional SI anomalies are explored across the data-rich continental United States. SI-x variations from 1900 to 2010 show an abrupt and sustained delay in spring onset of about 4–8 d (around 1958) in parts of the Southeast and southern Great Plains, and a comparable advance of 4–8 d (around 1984) in parts of the northern Great Plains and the West. Atmospheric circulation anomalies, linked to large-scale modes of variability, exert modest but significant roles in the timing of spring onset across the United States on interannual and longer timescales. The SI-x are promising metrics for tracking spring onset variations and trends in mid-latitudes, relating them to relevant ecological, hydrological, and socioeconomic phenomena, and exploring connections between atmospheric drivers and seasonal timing.

International Journal of Climatology↗