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Inferring Brown-Capped Rosy-Finch demography and breeding distribution trends from long-term wintering data in New Mexico

Whitney A. Watson·Corrie C. Borgman·Steven Cox·Abigail Jean Lawson
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Abstract

The three North American Rosy-Finch species (Brown-capped [ Leucosticte australis ], Black [ L. atrata ], and Gray-crowned [ L. tephrocotis ]) are among the most climate-threatened species in the United States. New Mexico is an important location for investigating the effects of climate change because it is the southernmost location in which Brown-capped Rosy-Finches breed and the southernmost location where all three Rosy-Finch species co-occur during winter. In the context of climate change, this range boundary is important to study because it is the first part of the range anticipated to cross a threshold of unsuitability for these species with increasing temperatures. Rosy-Finches are difficult to study during the breeding season due to the high elevation and remoteness of their breeding grounds; therefore, winter studies may lend insight into population trends and provide direction for conservation actions based on knowledge of the breeding origins of wintering birds. The goals of our study were to investigate long-term survival and migration trends from wintering Brown-capped Rosy-Finches in New Mexico and evaluate the efficacy of radio frequency identification (RFID)-equipped artificial feeders to monitor population trends. As of May 2025, we have conducted a robust design survival analysis on 22 years of mark-recapture data from a particular wintering site in New Mexico, assessed patterns in the breeding origins of individuals captured at this site using stable isotope analysis, and examined patterns in data collected via RFID. Our main findings from this study are that annual survival probability of Rosy-Finches wintering in New Mexico is low compared to that of other migratory passerines, that Brown-capped Rosy-Finches wintering in New Mexico likely originate from a variety of locations across their breeding range, and that RFID monitoring is useful in improving survival estimates in Rosy-Finches, particularly in short-term studies.

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90° N90° S · 180° W ← longitude → 180° E
Source-reported bounding extent: 31.332301° to 37.000232° latitude; -109.050173° to -103.001964° longitude. This indicates report coverage, not an exact sampling location. View area on OpenStreetMap.

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Whitney A. Watson, Corrie C. Borgman, Steven Cox, Abigail Jean Lawson. 2025. Inferring Brown-Capped Rosy-Finch demography and breeding distribution trends from long-term wintering data in New Mexico. https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/70270841

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