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At least 541 records · Page 30Linked to original sources

The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise

Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world’s mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.

Indo-Pacific region↗

Hawai`i forest bird monitoring database: Database dictionary

Between 1976 and 1981, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (now U.S. Geological Survey – Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center [USGS-PIERC]) conducted systematic surveys of forest birds and plant communities on all the main Hawaiian Islands, except O‘ahu, as part of the Hawai‘i Forest Bird Surveys (HFBS). Results of this monumental effort have guided conservation efforts and provided the basis for many plant and bird recovery plans and land acquisition decisions in Hawai‘i. Unfortunately, these estimates and range maps are now seriously outdated, hindering modern conservation decision-making and recovery planning. HFBIDP staff work closely with land managers and others to identify the location of bird populations in need of protection. In addition, HFBIDP is able to assess field collection methods, census areas, and survey frequency for their effectiveness. Survey and geographical data are refined and released in successive versions, each more inclusive, detailed, and accurate than the previous release. Incrementally releasing data gives land managers and survey coordinators reasonably good data to work with early on rather than waiting for the release of ‘perfect’ data, ‘perfectly’ analyzed. Consequently, summary results are available in a timely manner.

Technical Report↗

Changes in ecosystem nitrogen and carbon allocation with black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) encroachment into Spartina alterniflora salt marsh

Increases in temperature are expected to facilitate encroachment of tropical mangrove forests into temperate salt marshes, yet the effects on ecosystem services are understudied. Our work was conducted along a mangrove expansion front in Louisiana (USA), an area where coastal wetlands are in rapid decline due to compounding factors, including reduced sediment supply, rising sea level, and subsidence. Marsh and mangrove ecosystems are each known for their ability to adjust to sea-level rise and support numerous ecosystem services, but there are some differences in the societal benefits they provide. Here, we compare carbon and nitrogen stocks and relate these findings to the expected effects of mangrove encroachment on nitrogen filtration and carbon sequestration in coastal wetlands. We specifically evaluate the implications of black mangrove ( Avicennia germinans ) encroachment into Spartina alterniflora -dominated salt marsh. Our results indicate that black mangrove encroachment will lead to increased aboveground carbon and nitrogen stocks. However, we found no differences in belowground (that is, root and sediment) nitrogen or carbon stocks between marshes and mangroves. Thus, the shift from marsh to mangrove may provide decadal-scale increases in aboveground nitrogen and carbon sequestration, but belowground nitrogen and carbon sequestration (that is, carbon burial) may not be affected. We measured lower pore water nitrogen content beneath growing mangroves, which we postulate may be due to greater nitrogen uptake and storage in mangrove aboveground compartments compared to marshes. However, further studies are needed to better characterize the implications of mangrove encroachment on nitrogen cycling, storage, and export to the coastal ocean.

Louisiana↗

Sinks for nitrogen inputs in terrestrial ecosystems: a meta-analysis of 15 N tracer field studies

Effects of anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition and the ability of terrestrial ecosystems to store carbon (C) depend in part on the amount of N retained in the system and its partitioning among plant and soil pools. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies at 48 sites across four continents that used enriched 15 N isotope tracers in order to synthesize information about total ecosystem N retention (i.e., total ecosystem 15 N recovery in plant and soil pools) across natural systems and N partitioning among ecosystem pools. The greatest recoveries of ecosystem 15 N tracer occurred in shrublands (mean, 89.5%) and wetlands (84.8%) followed by forests (74.9%) and grasslands (51.8%). In the short term (<1 week after 15 N tracer application), total ecosystem 15 N recovery was negatively correlated with fine-root and soil 15 N natural abundance, and organic soil C and N concentration but was positively correlated with mean annual temperature and mineral soil C:N. In the longer term (3&ndash;18 months after 15 N tracer application), total ecosystem 15 N retention was negatively correlated with foliar natural-abundance 15 N but was positively correlated with mineral soil C and N concentration and C: N, showing that plant and soil natural-abundance 15 N and soil C:N are good indicators of total ecosystem N retention. Foliar N concentration was not significantly related to ecosystem 15 N tracer recovery, suggesting that plant N status is not a good predictor of total ecosystem N retention. Because the largest ecosystem sinks for 15 N tracer were below ground in forests, shrublands, and grasslands, we conclude that growth enhancement and potential for increased C storage in aboveground biomass from atmospheric N deposition is likely to be modest in these ecosystems. Total ecosystem 15 N recovery decreased with N fertilization, with an apparent threshold fertilization rate of 46 kg N&middot;ha -1 &middot;yr -1 above which most ecosystems showed net losses of applied 15 N tracer in response to N fertilizer addition.

Ecology↗

The Colorado Plateau II: biophysical, socioeconomic, and cultural research

The publication of The Colorado Plateau: Cultural, Biological, and Physical Research in 2004 marked a timely summation of current research in the Four Corners states. This new volume, derived from the seventh Biennial Conference on the Colorado Plateau in 2003, complements the previous book by focusing on the integration of science into resource management issues. The 32 chapters range in content from measuring human impacts on cultural resources, through grazing and the wildland-urban interface issues, to parameters of climate change on the Plateau. The book also introduces economic perspectives by considering shifting patterns and regional disparities in the Colorado Plateau economy. A series of chapters on mountain lions explores the human-wildland interface. These chapters deal with the entire spectrum of challenges associated with managing this large mammal species in Arizona and on the Colorado Plateau, conveying a wealth of timely information of interest to wildlife managers and enthusiasts. Another provocative set of chapters on biophysical resources explores the management of forest restoration, from the micro scale all the way up to large-scale GIS analyses of ponderosa pine ecosystems on the Colorado Plateau. Given recent concerns for forest health in the wake of fires, severe drought, and bark-beetle infestation, these chapters will prove enlightening for forest service, park service, and land management professionals at both the federal and state level, as well as general readers interested in how forest management practices will ultimately affect their recreation activities. With broad coverage that touches on topics as diverse as movement patterns of rattlesnakes, calculating watersheds, and rescuing looted rockshelters, this volume stands as a compendium of cutting-edge research on the Colorado Plateau that offers a wealth of insights for many scholars.

Utah;Colorado;Arizona;New Mexico↗

Relative effects on a low-volume road system of landslides resulting from episodic storms in northern Idaho

In late November to early December 1995 and February 1996, northern Idaho was hit by heavy rains on a deep snowpack, resulting in two flood and landslide events of historic magnitude. Each of these storms was larger than the previous significant storm, which occurred in January 1974. A study was initiated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service to survey and study the effects of the resultant landslides on the Clearwater National Forest, including the effects on the aquatic ecosystem. The results of this study were compared with the estimated average natural sediment resulting from landslides to evaluate the incremental impacts of these recent episodic landslides. They were also compared with the results of a study conducted on the landslides resulting from the January 1974 storm to determine if the landscape was responding more severely to large storms as a result of Forest Service management activities over the past 21 years. The general results of this study indicate that, of the Forest Service management activities, roads are the major contributor; however, they contribute less sediment than natural landslides. The total resultant sediment appears to be within the transport capacity of the aquatic system, and the landslide response in 1974 was similar to the 1995–1996 response. The results of the aquatic ecosystem study were generally mixed, with some habitat parameters indicating degradation, some unchanged, and some improved as a result of the flooding or flooding with landslide sediment.

Idaho↗

USGS supports ecosystem management in the San Francisco bay and delta

In the past several years, the Department of the Interior has ,l?laced particular emphasis on "ecosystem management" - the integration of scientific knowledge of ecological relationships with resource management practices to sustain ecological, cultural, and economic systems in broad habitat areas; eg., forest, desert, and aquatic habitats. The goal of ecosystem management is to understand the habitat requirements of many species and thereby assess the impact of a variety of human activities on regional biodiversity rather than to manage for individual species. In support of the management of the natural resources of San Francisco Bay and the delta, the USGS is augmenting its ongoing research program to provide additional research, monitoring, and assessment information and to improve the availability of that information. Following a workshop with resource and regulatory agency representatives, hosted by the USGS in early 1994, USGS researchers identified specific areas where existing and new scientific information could contribute to resolving some of the critical bay and delta land and aquatic management issues. The "ecosystems initiative" effort now underway addresses questions in three areas: Freshwater flow, including sediment and contaminant transport. Wetlands. Information and data access. Following is a brief description of activities being supported by this initiative.

Interagency Ecological Program Newsletter↗

Tree species and soil nutrient profiles in old-growth forests of the Oregon Coast Range

Old-growth forests of the Pacific Northwest provide a unique opportunity to examine tree species &ndash; soil relationships in ecosystems that have developed without significant human disturbance. We characterized foliage, forest floor, and mineral soil nutrients associated with four canopy tree species (Douglas-fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco), western hemlock ( Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.), western redcedar ( Thuja plicata Donn ex D. Don), and bigleaf maple ( Acer macrophyllum Pursh)) in eight old-growth forests of the Oregon Coast Range. The greatest forest floor accumulations of C, N, P, Ca, Mg, and K occurred under Douglas-fir, primarily due to greater forest floor mass. In mineral soil, western hemlock exhibited significantly lower Ca concentration and sum of cations (Ca + Mg + K) than bigleaf maple, with intermediate values for Douglas-fir and western redcedar. Bigleaf maple explained most species-based differences in foliar nutrients, displaying high concentrations of N, P, Ca, Mg, and K. Foliar P and N:P variations largely reflected soil P variation across sites. The four tree species that we examined exhibited a number of individualistic effects on soil nutrient levels that contribute to biogeochemical heterogeneity in these ecosystems. Where fire suppression and long-term succession favor dominance by highly shade-tolerant western hemlock, our results suggest a potential for declines in both soil Ca availability and soil biogeochemical heterogeneity in old-growth forests.

Oregon↗

The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident: ecotoxicological update

The accident at the Chernobyl, Ukraine, nuclear reactor on 26 April 1986 released large amounts of radiocesium and other radionuclides into the environment, contaminating much of the northern hemisphere, especially Europe. In the vicinity of Chernobyl, at least 30 people died, more than 115,000 others were evacuated, and consumption of milk and other foods was banned because of radiocontamination. At least 14,000 human cancer deaths are expected in Russia, Belarus, and the Ukraine as a direct result of Chernobyl. The most sensitive local ecosystems, as judged by survival, were the soil fauna, pine forest communities, and certain populations of rodents. Elsewhere, fallout from Chernobyl significantly contaminated freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems and flesh and milk of domestic livestock; in many cases, radionuclide concentrations in biological samples exceeded current radiation protection guidelines. Reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) in Scandinavia were among the most seriously afflicted by Chernobyl fallout, probably because their main food during winter (lichens) is an efficient absorber of airborne particles containing radiocesium. Some reindeer calves contaminated with 137Cs from Chernobyl showed 137Cs-dependent decreases in survival and increases in frequency of chromosomal aberrations. Although radiation levels in the biosphere are declining with time, latent effects of initial exposure--including an increased frequency of thyroid and other cancers--are now measurable. The full effect of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident on natural resources will probably not be known for at least several decades because of gaps in data on long-term genetic and reproductive effects and on radiocesium cycling and toxicokinetics.

Book chapter↗

Temperature drives global patterns in forest biomass distribution in leaves, stems, and roots

Whether the fraction of total forest biomass distributed in roots, stems, or leaves varies systematically across geographic gradients remains unknown despite its importance for understanding forest ecology and modeling global carbon cycles. It has been hypothesized that plants should maintain proportionally more biomass in the organ that acquires the most limiting resource. Accordingly, we hypothesize greater biomass distribution in roots and less in stems and foliage in increasingly arid climates and in colder environments at high latitudes. Such a strategy would increase uptake of soil water in dry conditions and of soil nutrients in cold soils, where they are at low supply and are less mobile. We use a large global biomass dataset (>6,200 forests from 61 countries, across a 40 °C gradient in mean annual temperature) to address these questions. Climate metrics involving temperature were better predictors of biomass partitioning than those involving moisture availability, because, surprisingly, fractional distribution of biomass to roots or foliage was unrelated to aridity. In contrast, in increasingly cold climates, the proportion of total forest biomass in roots was greater and in foliage was smaller for both angiosperm and gymnosperm forests. These findings support hypotheses about adaptive strategies of forest trees to temperature and provide biogeographically explicit relationships to improve ecosystem and earth system models. They also will allow, for the first time to our knowledge, representations of root carbon pools that consider biogeographic differences, which are useful for quantifying whole-ecosystem carbon stocks and cycles and for assessing the impact of climate change on forest carbon dynamics.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

Forest cover lessens the impact of drought on streamflow in Puerto Rico

Tropical regions are experiencing high rates of forest cover loss coupled with changes in the volume and timing of rainfall. These shifts can compromise streamflow and water provision, highlighting the need to identify how forest cover influences streamflow generation under variable rainfall conditions. Although rainfall is the key driver of streamflow regimes, the role of forests is less clear, particularly in tropical regions where forest loss is an ongoing risk. Forest cover loss alters evapotranspiration, rainfall infiltration and storage, and may increase stream ecosystem vulnerability to rainfall extremes. Puerto Rico, an island with spatially heterogenous forest cover and a marked geographic rainfall gradient, is projected to experience more frequent droughts and flash flooding. Using 15-minute streamflow data collected between 2005 and 2016 from 20 USGS stream gages and 3-hourly Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation rainfall estimates, we utilized flow-duration curves and linear mixed regression models to examine the role of forest cover in regulating the timing and volume of streamflow. The mixed model approach helps to account for differences in watershed characteristics. We determined the effects of rainfall and forest cover on low and peak flows in Puerto Rican streams, then evaluated changes in these relationships under dry and wet antecedent rainfall conditions. Watersheds with high forest cover had consistently greater low and peak streamflow than deforested ones under all rainfall conditions, although the effect was more marked during wet antecedent conditions, suggesting that peak flow is largely the result of saturation excess overland flow. During dry antecedent rainfall conditions, highly forested watersheds had higher streamflow than deforested ones, suggesting greater hillslope storage and release may also be at play. Our results demonstrate that forest cover generated a net increase in hillslope infiltration and storage and may lessen drought impacts on streamflow in Puerto Rico. Resilience to prolonged drought may be limited by finite water storage potential in this steep, mountainous setting, highlighting maintenance of forest cover as an important water management strategy to increase infiltration.

Puerto Rico↗

A first-order analysis of the potential role of CO2 fertilization to affect the global carbon budget: A comparison of four terrestrial biosphere models

We compared the simulated responses of net primary production, heterotrophic respiration, net ecosystem production and carbon storage in natural terrestrial ecosystems to historical (1765 to 1990) and projected (1990 to 2300) changes of atmospheric CO2 concentration of four terrestrial biosphere models: the Bern model, the Frankfurt Biosphere Model (FBM), the High-Resolution Biosphere Model (HRBM) and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). The results of the model intercomparison suggest that CO2 fertilization of natural terrestrial vegetation has the potential to account for a large fraction of the so-called 'missing carbon sink' of 2.0 Pg C in 1990. Estimates of this potential are reduced when the models incorporate the concept that CO2 fertilization can be limited by nutrient availability. Although the model estimates differ on the potential size (126 to 461 Pg C) of the future terrestrial sink caused by CO2 fertilization, the results of the four models suggest that natural terrestrial ecosystems will have a limited capacity to act as a sink of atmospheric CO2 in the future as a result of physiological constraints and nutrient constraints on NPP. All the spatially explicit models estimate a carbon sink in both tropical and northern temperate regions, but the strength of these sinks varies over time. Differences in the simulated response of terrestrial ecosystems to CO2 fertilization among the models in this intercomparison study reflect the fact that the models have highlighted different aspects of the effect of CO2 fertilization on carbon dynamics of natural terrestrial ecosystems including feedback mechanisms. As interactions with nitrogen fertilization, climate change and forest regrowth may play an important role in simulating the response of terrestrial ecosystems to CO2 fertilization, these factors should be included in future analyses. Improvements in spatially explicit data sets, whole-ecosystems experiments and the availability of net carbon exchange measurements across the globe will also help to improve future evaluations of the role of CO2 fertilization on terrestrial carbon storage.

Tellus, Series B: Chemical and Physical Meteorolog↗

Salt marsh-mangrove ecotones: using structural gradients to investigate the effects of woody plant encroachment on plant-soil interactions and ecosystem carbon pools

Changing winter climate extremes are expected to result in the poleward migration of mangrove forests at the expense of salt marshes. Although mangroves and marshes are both highly valued ecosystems, the ecological implications of mangrove expansion have not been fully investigated. Here, we examined the effects of mangrove expansion on below-ground properties related to peat development and carbon storage. We investigated plant &ndash; soil interactions in marshes and across mangrove forest structural gradients in three locations in the northern Gulf of Mexico (USA). We compared our results to those from terrestrial grasslands where the effects of woody plant encroachment are often influenced by rainfall and plant traits. Abiotic conditions at our study locations differed, particularly in terms of physicochemical properties related to precipitation. Marsh species composition, marsh above-ground biomass, and mangrove forest structural complexity also varied across these locations. Marshes in the driest location (Central Texas) had higher salinities and were dominated by low biomass succulent plants and lower soil carbon pools. Marshes in the wetter, less saline locations (Louisiana and North Florida) contained high biomass grasses and higher soil carbon pools. At all locations, above-ground biomass and above-ground carbon pools were higher in mangroves than marshes; however, below-ground soil carbon pools were only higher in mangroves than marshes in the driest location. In the wetter locations, the linkages between mangrove forest structure and soil properties were minimal or not significant. However, in the driest location, there was a significant increase in soil properties related to peat development and carbon storage with increased mangrove forest structural development. Synthesis : Our results indicate that the ecological implications of woody plant encroachment in tidal saline wetlands are dependent upon precipitation controls of plant &ndash; soil interactions. Although the above-ground effects of mangrove expansion are consistently large, below-ground influences of mangrove expansion appear to be greatest along low-rainfall coasts where salinities are high and marshes being replaced are carbon poor and dominated by succulent plants. Collectively, these findings complement those from terrestrial ecosystems and reinforce the importance of considering rainfall and plant &ndash; soil interactions within predictions of the ecological effects of woody plant encroachment.

Florida, Louisiana, Texas↗

Critical land change information enhances the understanding of carbon balance in the United States

Large-scale terrestrial carbon (C) estimating studies using methods such as atmospheric inversion, biogeochemical modeling, and field inventories have produced different results. The goal of this study was to integrate fine-scale processes including land use and land cover change into a large-scale ecosystem framework. We analyzed the terrestrial C budget of the conterminous United States from 1971 to 2015 at 1-km resolution using an enhanced dynamic global vegetation model and comprehensive land cover change data. Effects of atmospheric CO 2 fertilization, nitrogen deposition, climate, wildland fire, harvest, and land use/land cover change (LUCC) were considered. We estimate annual C losses from cropland harvest, forest clearcut and thinning, fire, and LUCC were 436.8, 117.9, 10.5, and 10.4 TgC/year, respectively. C stored in ecosystems increased from 119,494 to 127,157 TgC between 1971 and 2015, indicating a mean annual net C sink of 170.3 TgC/year. Although ecosystem net primary production increased by approximately 12.3 TgC/year, most of it was offset by increased C loss from harvest and natural disturbance and increased ecosystem respiration related to forest aging. As a result, the strength of the overall ecosystem C sink did not increase over time. Our modeled results indicate the conterminous US C sink was about 30% smaller than previous modeling studies, but converged more closely with inventory data.

Global Change Biology↗

Current and future potential ecosystem services of the Nisqually River Delta: An assessment approach for Puget Sound estuaries and USFWS coastal refuges

The Nisqually River Delta, located in South Puget Sound, contains a rich mosaic of different coastal habitat types. The goal of this project was to quantify ecosystem services — benefits that wildlife or ecosystems provide to people — that are priorities for the Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge, the Nisqually Indian Tribe, and the surrounding communities. We modeled how change in these habitats from sea level rise (SLR) or management activities like restoration could affect ecosystem services in the future. We focused on changes to three main ecosystem services: soil carbon accumulation, birdwatching visitation, and juvenile Chinook salmon growth rates, which served as a proxy for fishery production. A habitat and carbon model projected that after 100 years, most high salt marsh would remain with < 1m SLR, but a substantial area would convert to low salt marsh and mudflat with ≥ 1m SLR. Total carbon accumulation would plateau or decline with ≥ 1m SLR, yet economic value of carbon accumulation would continue to rise over time, suggesting that the value of this ecosystem service is resilient to SLR. Birdwatching visitation was greatest in winter months and was positively related to area of forested wetland, emergent wetland, aquatic vegetation bed (e.g., eelgrass) and mudflat and open access (areas freely accessible to the public). Increases in forested wetland may lead to greater increases in visitation compared to other habitat types. All three ecosystem services increased with increases in forested wetland and emergent wetland, and tradeoffs among services occurred with increases in aquatic vegetation bed and mudflat. While both prey-rich salt marshes and eelgrass meadows facilitate salmon growth, loss of salt marsh led to declines in juvenile salmon weight. In conversation with USFWS managers, we identified practical ways to incorporate ecosystem services into adaptive management frameworks that support climate adaptation decision making. Our study illustrated how accounting for ecosystem services helps managers make decisions that greatly benefit wildlife and people, communicate the societal value of decisions, and increase local engagement and participation.

Washington↗

Multi‐scale habitat selection of elk in response to beetle‐killed forest

Forests of the Rocky Mountains (USA and Canada) have experienced a large‐scale bark‐beetle ( Dendoctronus ponderosae ) epidemic that has led to widespread mortality of pine trees, followed by structural and compositional changes to the forest. The millions of dead trees resulting from this event likely have an effect on ecosystem processes, but currently those effects are mostly unclear. Changes to forest canopy and understory structure are likely to affect behavior and space use of large ungulates as forage abundance, thermal cover, and locomotive costs are presumably altered. We developed and tested hypotheses for how resource selection in summer of female elk ( Cervus canadensis ; n = 47; 2012–2016), the primary large mammal in our study area, was influenced by changes in canopy, understory vegetation, and downed logs in bark‐beetle affected forest in south‐central Wyoming, USA. We employed global positioning system (GPS) technology, an imagery‐derived land cover classification specifically depicting beetle‐affected forest, and on‐the‐ground forest measurements to develop resource and step selection functions. At the study area scale, elk avoided beetle‐killed forest during nearly all parts of the day and selected for intact conifer forest during the day. At the micro‐habitat scale, as canopy cover decreased in beetle‐killed areas, there was a concomitant increase in grass biomass and downed logs. Nevertheless, while in the forest, elk did not alter resource selection relative to changes in understory vegetation or downed logs. The boost in forage abundance within beetle‐killed areas was insufficient to overcome the presumed increases in energy expenditures associated with locomotion and thermoregulation in beetle‐killed forests. The bark‐beetle epidemic has altered how elk use the landscape and has resulted in a potential loss of forest habitat that elk use during the day. Our results indicate that habitat treatments (i.e., fire or harvest) that remove standing dead trees and downed logs in beetle‐killed forest would further facilitate understory growth while reducing the locomotion costs associated with foraging in beetle‐killed forest.

Wyoming, Colorado↗

Simulation of forest changes related to hydrologic variables in the Atchafalaya River basin, Louisiana

Results of forest-trend modeling from one data set in the Atchafalaya River basin show that predicted forest acreage totals for 16 forest types agree within 30 percent of actual values in two-thirds of the comparisons. A forest-trend simulation model based on statistical regression relations of forest and hydrologic variables and constrained by forest succession concepts was developed using observed data from twenty-four 8-square-mile (20.74-square-kilometre) quadrats. Forest and hydrologic data at each quadrat were sampled in time at three 4-mile (6.44-kilometre)-wide strips across the basin. The model predicts changes in forest-type acreages due to hydrologic change in time steps, or forest acreage transition, of 21 years. Further basin-wide quadrat simulations are planned using hydrologic input data from a flow-sediment model of the basin currently being developed. Other ecosystem models could be appended to the forest-trend simulation model.

Louisiana↗

Expansion of forest stands into tundra in the Noatak National Preserve, northwest Alaska

Temperatures across the northern regions of North America have been increasing for 150 years, and forests have responded to this increase. In the Noatak National Preserve in Alaska, white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) forests reach their northern limit, occurring primarily on well-drained sites and as gallery forests along streams. Rolling plateaus of tundra separate the white spruce forests into disjunct stands. We examined patterns of tree age, tree growth, and tree encroachment into tundra ecosystems in six stands along the Agashashok River. Warming over the past 150 years appears to have increased tree growth and resulted in forest expansion into adjacent tundra ecosystems. The forest/tundra ecotone shifted by about 80 to 100 m into the tundra in the past 200 years, as evidenced by declining maximum tree age with distance towards the tundra. The decadal-scale pattern of tree establishment at the farthest extent of trees into the tundra (the tundra-forest ecotone) correlated with the detrended growth index for trees within the forests; climate conditions that led to higher tree growth appeared to foster tree establishment in the tundra. This recent forest expansion has occurred across topographic boundaries, from well-drained soils on slopes onto poorly drained, flatter areas of tundra. Further expansion of the forests may be limited by more severe wind exposure and poor drainage that make the majority of tundra less suitable for trees.

Écoscience↗