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At least 505 records · Page 28Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Noble gas isotopes in mineral springs and wells within the Cascadia forearc, Washington, Oregon, and California

Introduction This U.S. Geological Survey report presents laboratory analyses along with field notes for an exploratory study to document the relative abundance of noble gases in mineral springs and water wells within the Cascadia forearc of Washington, Oregon, and California (fig. 1). This report describes 14 samples collected in 2014 and 2015 and complements a previous report that describes 9 samples collected in 2012 and 2013 (McCrory and others, 2014b). Estimates of the depth to the underlying Juan de Fuca oceanic plate beneath sample sites are derived from the McCrory and others (2012) slab model. Some of the springs have been previously sampled for chemical analyses (Mariner and others, 2006), but none of the springs or wells currently has publicly available noble gas data. The helium and neon isotope values and ratios presented below are used to determine the sources and mixing history of these mineral and well waters (for example, McCrory and others, 2016).

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2023

Calibration of the Trinity River Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) with extension to the Klamath River, California, 2006–17

The Trinity River is managed in two sections: (1) the upper 64-kilometer (km) “restoration reach” downstream from Lewiston Dam and (2) the 120-km lower Trinity River downstream from the restoration reach. The Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) has been previously constructed and calibrated for the restoration reach. In this report, we extended and parameterized S3 for the 120-km section of the lower Trinity River to the confluence with the Klamath River and then to the Pacific Ocean in northern California. S3 is a deterministic life-stage structured-population model that tracks daily growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmon. A key theme of the model is that river discharge affects habitat availability and capacity, which in turn drives density-dependent population dynamics. To explicitly link population dynamics to habitat quality and quantity, the river environment is constructed as a one-dimensional series of linked habitat units, each of which has an associated daily timeseries of discharge, water temperature, and useable habitat area or carrying capacity. In turn, the physical characteristics of each habitat unit and the number of fish occupying each unit drive (1) survival and growth within each habitat unit and (2) movement of fish among habitat units. The physical template of the Trinity River was formed by classifying the river into 910 meso-habitat units that were designated into runs, riffles, or pools. For each habitat unit, we developed a timeseries of daily discharge, water temperature, amount of available spawning habitat, and fry and parr carrying capacity. Capacity timeseries were constructed using state-of-the-art models of spatially explicit hydrodynamics and quantitative fish habitat relationships developed for the Trinity River. These variables were then used to drive population dynamics such as egg maturation and survival, and in turn, juvenile movement, growth, and survival. We estimated key movement and survival parameters by calibrating the model to 12 years (2007–18) of weekly juvenile abundance estimates from two rotary screw traps: (1) the Pear Tree trap near the downstream end of the restoration reach and (2) the Willow Creek trap site is about 40.2 km upriver from the Trinity River’s confluence with the Klamath River. The calibration consisted of replicating historical conditions as closely as possible (for example: flow, temperature, spawner abundance, spawning location and timing, and hatchery releases), and then running the model to predict weekly abundance passing the trap location. We also evaluated four alternative model structures that included either no density-dependence, density-independent movement and survival, density-dependent survival, or density-dependent movement. Akaike information criterion model selection was used to evaluate the strength of evidence for alternative model structures to simulate the observed abundance estimates. Model selection supported the conclusion that the fully density-dependent model and density-dependent survival model was better supported by the data than the no density-dependence or density-dependent movement model. Because density-dependent movement was favored in past evaluations, we focus on the results from the fully density-dependent model. Parameter estimates from this model indicated that fry were less likely than parr to move downstream and that fry moved slower. Fry had a lower daily survival probability than parr. In contrast, hatchery fish had the highest probability of movement and the lowest daily survival probability. Fitting the model to both traps individually enabled us to independently compare the fit and performance of S3 at simulating fish abundance, timing, and growth of juvenile salmon in the upper restoration reach and lower Trinity River. We obtained a better fit to the data at the Willow Creek trap site than we obtained at the Pear Tree trap site, regardless of whether we fit the model to the abundances at the Pear Tree trap or Willow Creek trap. This better fit was surprising given that the S3 input data for the upper restoration reach required fewer assumptions than fitting to the Willow Creek trap site that is farther down river. Fitting S3 to weekly abundances at the Willow Creek trap site required making assumptions about (1) extrapolating capacity-flow relationships to unmeasured habitat units; (2) spatially allocating spawners within the lower Trinity River; and (3) approximating the abundance, timing, and size of juveniles entering from tributaries. The model provided better fit to the data at the Willow Creek trap site. In the weekly abundance estimates, in relation to the S3 simulated abundances, several migration years’ (2011, 2015–17) weekly abundance estimates appeared truncated and were near or at peak annual abundances in January, suggesting that a large fraction of juveniles was migrating as early as December at the Pear Tree trap site. Some early life dynamics may not be currently incorporated into S3. For example, the estimation of abundance at the Pear Tree trap may be biased because of size selectivity. Knowing about selectivity at the Pear Tree trap could greatly improve S3’s ability to predict weekly and peak abundances each year.

California↗
USGS2011

Depositional setting and geochemistry of phosphorites and metalliferous black shales in the Carboniferous-Permian Lisburne Group, Northern Alaska

Phosphatic rocks are distributed widely in the Lisburne Group, a mainly Carboniferous carbonate succession that occurs throughout northern Alaska. New sedimentologic, paleontologic, and geochemical data presented here constrain the geographic and stratigraphic extent of these strata and their depositional and paleogeographic settings. Our findings support models that propose very high oxygen contents of the Permo-Carboniferous atmosphere and oceans, and those that suggest enhanced phosphogenesis in iron-limited sediments; our data also have implications for Carboniferous paleogeography of the Arctic. Lisburne Group phosphorites range from granular to nodular, are interbedded with black shale and lime mudstone rich in radiolarians and sponge spicules, and accumulated primarily in suboxic outer- to middle-ramp environments. Age constraints from conodonts, foraminifers, and goniatite cephalopods indicate that most are middle Late Mississippian (early Chesterian; early late Visean). Phosphorites form 2- to 40-cm-thick beds of sand- to pebble-sized phosphatic peloids, coated grains, and (or) bioclasts cemented by carbonate, silica, or phosphate that occur through an interval =12 m thick. High gamma-ray response through this interval suggests strongly condensed facies related to sediment starvation and development of phosphatic hardgrounds. Phosphorite textures, such as unconformity-bounded coated grains, record multiple episodes of phosphogenesis and sedimentary reworking. Sharp bed bases and local grading indicate considerable redeposition of phosphatic material into deeper water by storms and (or) gravity flows. Lisburne Group phosphorites contain up to 37 weight percent P2O5, 7.6 weight percent F, 1,030 ppm Y, 517 ppm La, and 166 ppm U. Shale-normalized rare earth element (REE) plots show uniformly large negative Ce anomalies Ce/Ce*=0.11 + or - 0.03) that are interpreted to reflect phosphate deposition in seawater that was greatly depleted in Ce due to increased oxygenation of the atmosphere and oceans during the Carboniferous evolution of large vascular land plants. Black shales within the phosphorite sections have up to 20.2 weight percent Corg and are potential petroleum source rocks. Locally, these strata also are metalliferous, with up to 1,690 ppm Cr, 2,831 ppm V, 551 ppm Ni, 4,670 ppm Zn, 312 ppm Cu, 43.5 ppm Ag, and 12.3 ppm Tl; concentrations of these metals covary broadly with Corg, suggesting coupled redox variations. Calculated marine fractions (MF) of Cr, V, and Mo, used to evaluate the paleoredox state of the bottom waters, show generally high CrMF/MoMF and VMF/MoMF ratios that indicate deposition of the black shales under suboxic denitrifying conditions; Re/Mo ratios also plot mainly within the suboxic field and support this interpretation. Predominantly seawater and biogenic sources are indicated for Cr, V, Mo, Zn, Cd, Ni, and Cu in the black shales, with an additional hydrothermal contribution inferred for Zn, Cd, Ag, and Tl in some samples. Lisburne Group phosphorites formed in the Ikpikpuk Basin and along both sides of the mud- and chert-rich Kuna Basin, which hosts giant massive sulfide and barite deposits of the Red Dog district. Lisburne Group phosphatic strata are coeval with these deposits and formed in response to a nutrient-rich upwelling regime. Phosphate deposition occurred mainly in suboxic bottom waters based on data for paleoredox proxies (Cr, V, Mo, Re) within contemporaneous black shales. Recent global reconstructions are consistent with Carboniferous upwelling in northern Alaska, but differ in the type of upwelling expected (zonal versus meridional). Paleoenvironmental data suggest that meridional upwelling may better explain phosphorite deposition in the Lisburne Group.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Big avalanches in a changing climate: Using tree-ring derived avalanche chronologies to examine avalanche frequency across multiple climate types

Large-magnitude snow avalanches pose a hazard to humans and infrastructure worldwide. Analyzing the spatiotemporal behavior of avalanches and the contributory climate factors is important for understanding historical variability in climate-avalanche relationships as well as improving avalanche forecasting. This study uses established dendrochronological methods to develop long-term regional avalanche chronologies for three different climate types: high-latitude maritime climate of southeast Alaska, intermountain climate of the northern Rocky Mountains, and continental climate of Colorado. In the maritime study area, we collected 434 cross sections throughout six avalanche paths near Juneau, Alaska. This resulted in 2706 identified avalanche growth disturbances between year 1720 and 2018 Common Era (CE), which allowed us to reconstruct 82 years with large magnitude avalanche activity across three sub-regions. By combining this tree-ring derived avalanche dataset with a suite of climate and atmospheric variables and applying a generalized linear model to fit a binomial regression, we found February and March precipitation and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) were significant predictors of large magnitude avalanche activity in the southeast Alaska study area. In the intermountain climate study area, tree-rings from 647 trees exhibited 2134 avalanche-related growth disturbances in the northern Rocky Mountains of northwest Montana from 1867 to 2019. The data show that the amount of snowpack across the northern Rocky Mountain region is directly related to avalanche probability. Coincident with warming and regional snowpack reductions, a decline of ~ 14% (~ 2% per decade) in overall large magnitude avalanche probability is apparent through the period 1950–2017 CE. In the continental climate of Colorado, we sampled 24 avalanche paths throughout the state and collected 1188 total samples with 4135 identified growth disturbances from 1698 to 2019. Preliminary results suggest years with large magnitude avalanche activity across the sub-regions of this study area are generally characterized by stormy winters with above average snowpack development but that early and late winter temperature and precipitation also play an important role in large avalanche activity. Characterizing historical climate-avalanche relationships across different climate types provides a broad baseline for understanding potential future changes in avalanche activity. Overall, this work helps forecasters and planners better understand the influence of climate on large magnitude avalanche frequency, and how potential changes in avalanche character and occurrence will affect their operations in the context of a warming climate.

Alaska, Colorado, Montana↗
USGS2024

The National Ocean Biodiversity Strategy

President Biden has been clear that the ocean is central to life on Earth. As he has proclaimed, “the ocean powers millions of jobs; feeds and sustains us; and is a rejuvenating source of inspiration, exploration, and recreation.” The Biden-Harris Administration has worked hard to fulfill the President’s goal to protect and conserve at least 30% of U.S. waters by 2030. The ocean faces increased threats from warming, overfishing, increased acidity, and loss of biodiversity. It is now more important than ever to sustain the many benefits that the ocean, coasts, and Great Lakes provide, including food, a favorable climate, recreation, physical and mental health, and for many, a sense of cultural identity. Ocean life represents an irreplaceable heritage, the foundation of a habitable planet, and a vast trove of resources. Keeping our ocean healthy requires reliable information on the changing status of these living organisms, the drivers of biodiversity change, and options for effectively addressing those drivers. Over 2 million species are estimated to live in the ocean, yet only about 240,000 species have been described by scientists. Most of the ocean’s benefits result from those diverse species interacting with one another and the environment they create. To protect and conserve the ocean, we as a nation need to make better use of existing knowledge and prioritize acquiring new biodiversity knowledge to enable better policy and management decisions. The ability to monitor ocean species and habitats has expanded dramatically over the past decade, with innovations in technology, genomics, taxonomy, big data management and sharing, artificial intelligence, and machine learning. Yet large fractions of the U.S. ocean remain almost unknown. The National Ocean Biodiversity Strategy (strategy) reflects the urgent need to leverage these advances. The goals of this strategy must be guided by the nation’s diverse voices and ways of knowing, in order to maximize effective and equitable stewardship of the ocean’s diverse life and its benefits to people. The strategy is intended as a guiding document for government to advance three overarching goals: ● Goal 1: Drive delivery of ocean biodiversity knowledge at the national scale. Objectives include developing an Implementation Plan for achieving the strategy’s three goals; establishing a coordination mechanism to manage the implementation; and documenting gaps in biodiversity knowledge and the benefits of ocean biodiversity to people and economies. ● Goal 2: Strengthen tools and institutions to deliver ocean biodiversity knowledge. Objectives include establishing a robust information pipeline to support indicators and dynamic maps of ocean biodiversity, from the coasts to the deep sea. This pipeline should include expanded observing systems and comprehensive data management; science and technology solutions to accelerate the availability of biodiversity information; and plans to leverage previous investments to rebuild and expand the nation’s human capital and infrastructure to sustain foundational taxonomy and biodiversity science. ● Goal 3: Protect, conserve, restore, and sustainably use ocean biodiversity. Objectives include expanding the collection, delivery, and use of biodiversity knowledge to inform actions that advance ocean protection, conservation, restoration, and sustainable development. Government should lead in establishing and incentivizing diverse partnerships across scales and sectors to implement those actions and should educate and involve the public to discover and value the nation’s diverse ocean life. Achieving these goals will require commitments across society: new federal and private investments, coordination across sectors to address climate and equity challenges, and engagement of Indigenous Knowledge holders and frontline communities as full partners throughout planning and implementation. The Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology (SOST) IWG-Biodiversity will begin developing an Implementation Plan to describe and direct specific actions to implement the strategy. Successful implementation of the strategy will harmonize and expand collection and delivery of timely knowledge on ocean life to all of society. The strategy will also enable evidence-based management and protection of the ocean. Advancing the strategy will build human and institutional capital and partnerships that support both existing mandates and new needs to rebuild and sustain biodiversity, achieve healthy ocean ecosystems, and manage living resources. Implementing the strategy will deliver knowledge for monitoring, modeling, forecasting, and assessments that support food security, public health, and cultural values, and that more effectively protect, conserve, and restore nature.

Report↗
USGS2025

Laying sequence and oceanographic factors affect egg size in Scripps's Murrelets Synthliboramphus scrippsi at Santa Barbara Island

Egg size is an important avian life history parameter, with larger eggs indicating greater investment of resources in the chick. Prey availability can affect such investment. We investigated the effects of oceanographic conditions and laying sequence on Scripps's Murrelet Synthliboramphus scrippsi egg size at Santa Barbara Island, California during 2009-2017. We evaluated oceanographic covariates characterizing marine productivity for their effect on egg size, including large-scale oceanographic indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index. We also evaluated a larval anchovy catch-per-unit-effort (ANCHL) index and the Biologically Effective Upwelling Transport Index (BEUTI) as region-wide indices, and sea surface temperature (SST) as a local index. We evaluated oceanographic conditions over the entire year and during the breeding season only. We also considered the contribution of lagged effects to oceanographic conditions. Our results generally ran counter to our hypothesis that increased ocean productivity should increase egg size. Based on Akaike's Information Criterion, the four top-ranked models provided support for an association between larger eggs and conditions indicative of lower oceanographic productivity, including lower values of BEUTI and NPGO, and higher values of ONI, PDO, and SST. The only result that supported our hypothesis was a positive relationship between ANCHL and egg size, although the 95% confidence interval for the effect included 0. The strongest relationship detected was between laying sequence and egg size, as second eggs were considerably larger than first eggs. Our results indicate substantial complexity in the relationship between ocean productivity and seabird demography. A better understanding of how ocean productivity affects seabird breeding outcomes through multiple mechanisms will help improve predictions of how seabirds will respond to changing ocean conditions.

California↗
USGS2013

How old is the Isthmus of Panama?

The Standard Model of the formation of the Isthmus of Panama proposes that final closure occurred at 4–3 Ma. The model is based on evidence from studies of marine stratigraphy, fossil sequences, divergent molecular phylogenies, the timing of the Great American Biological Interchange (GABI), and proxies for marine paleosalinity, paleobathymetry, productivity, and paleotemperatures. The new model uses cooling of magmas in the Cretaceous to Early Miocene Central American Volcanic arc to propose Eocene emergence of the discrete structural blocks of the arc and then U/Pb dating, paleomagnetic pole rotations, and atlantic sea-floor anomalies to reconfigure the blocks for different time slices back to 25 Ma. Closure is proposed at 15 Ma, because by this time the alignment of the blocks leaves no space for trans-isthmian marine passages. We propose that the Indonesian Australian Archipelago (IAA) provides a model for the Central American arc between 15 and 3 Ma because it accounts for the extensive marine interchange between the Pacific and Indian oceans through few and narrow passages while maintaining a complete separation of the terrestrial faunas (Wallace and Lydekker lines) of the two continental platforms of Sunda and Sahul. Using the Indonesian Volcanic arc as a model, we can now accommodate the general tectonic configuration and much of the emergence of the new model, while accounting for the marine fossil record, the molecular evidence of rapid recent speciation, and the delayed Great American Biotic Interchange that the New Model fails to explain.

Bulletin of Marine Science↗
USGS2022

Puerto Rico’s state of the climate 2014-2021

The climate of Puerto Rico is influenced by the changing global climate. The following chapters present the current knowledge of the geophysical and chemical drivers and signals of global climate change as they affect the climate of Puerto Rico and influence the climate-dependent services, risks, and vulnerabilities that govern human well-being. These include sustainable economic development, delivery of ecosystem services, the conservation of natural and cultural resources, resiliency in built and natural systems, and food security. The chapters draw on global expertise of land, atmosphere, and ocean geophysical interactions associated with increasing greenhouse gases that drive global warming and on local scientific expertise, data, observations, and modeled projections. They present the global warming scenario (section 1), the contribution of Puerto Rico to global climate change as GHG emissions and aerosols (section 2), the context of natural climate variability (section 3), observed and projected trends in temperature (section 4), rainfall (section 5), sea level rise (section 6), ocean acidification and sea surface warming (section 7), and the expected implications of warming climate on tropical cyclones affecting Puerto Rico (section 8).

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2019

Heat flow in the Western Arctic Ocean (Amerasian Basin)

From 1963 to 1973 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) measured heat flow at 356 sites in the Amerasian Basin (Western Arctic Ocean) from a drifting ice island (T-3). The resulting measurements, which are unevenly distributed on Alpha-Mendeleev Ridge (AMR) and in Canada and Nautilus basins, greatly expand available heat flow data for the Arctic Ocean. Average T-3 heat flow is ~54.7 ± 11.3 mW m-2, and Nautilus Basin, including Mendeleev Plain, is the only well-surveyed area (~13% of data) with significantly higher average heat flow (63.8 mW m-2). Heat flow and bathymetry are not correlated at a large scale, and turbiditic surficial sediments (Canada and Nautilus basins) have higher heat flow than the sediments that blanket the AMR. Thermal gradients are mostly near-linear, implying that conductive heat transport dominates and that near-seafloor sediments are in thermal equilibrium with overlying bottom waters. Combining the heat flow data with modern seismic imagery suggests that some of the observed heat flow variability may be explained by local changes in sediment thickness or lithology or the presence of basement faults that channel circulating seawater. A thermal model that incorporates thermal conductivity variations along a profile from Canada Basin (thick sediment on mostly oceanic crust) to Alpha Ridge (thin sediment over thick magmatic units associated with the High Arctic Large Igneous Province) predicts heat flow lower than that observed on Alpha Ridge. This, along with other observations, implies that circulating fluids modulate conductive heat flow and contribute to high variability in the T-3 dataset. .

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2024

Hurricane wave energy dissipation and wave-driven currents over a fringing reef

In 2018, two successive tropical cyclones, Hurricane Hector and Hurricane Lane, generated waves that impacted the Hawaiian Islands. This study investigates wave breaking over a broad fringing reef and aims to quantify the magnitudes and length scales of the corresponding wave-driven circulation using detailed field observations and numerical models corresponding to these wave events. Detailed wave and current measurements were collected across a 1200-m wide cross-reef transect off the coral reef-lined south coast of Moloka’i, Hawai’i. High-resolution numerical model grids were developed to resolve reef features and the coupled Delft3D-SWAN modeling system was applied to simulate spectral wave transformation and wave-driven currents for these two energetic ocean wave events generated by distant passing hurricanes. The results indicate that the wave-driven circulation is generally weak, with current speeds typically less than 0.15 m/s for the wave conditions generated by Hurricane Lane, with significant wave heights up to 1.9 m. Higher energy dissipation rates from larger waves up to 2.5 m breaking during Hurricane Hector resulted in stronger observed currents up to approximately 0.3 m/s. However, the model results show that these currents are confined to the wave-breaking region over the upper fore reef in a narrow (100–300 m) region near the reef crest, and weaker flows of less than 0.1 m/s are generated over the shallow and wide reef flat. Wave heights across the reef flat are less than 0.5 m and are controlled by the tidal water levels. The coral reef structures therefore provide significant protection for the coastline even during large wave and variable sea level conditions. Climate change is likely to increase sea level and storm intensity, the combination of which will influence wave transmission over fringing reefs that may degrade habitat, fueling the need for further research on changing conditions on coral reef-lined coasts.

Hawaii↗
USGS2007

Coastal processes study at Ocean Beach, San Francisco, CA: Summary of data collection 2004-2006

Ocean Beach in San Francisco, California, contains a persistent erosional section in the shadow of the San Francisco ebb tidal delta and south of Sloat Boulevard that threatens valuable public infrastructure as well as the safe recreational use of the beach. Coastal managers have been discussing potential mediation measures for over a decade, with little scientific research available to aid in decision making. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) initiated the Ocean Beach Coastal Processes Study in April 2004 to provide the scientific knowledge necessary for coastal managers to make informed management decisions. This study integrates a wide range of field data collection and numerical modeling techniques to document nearshore sediment transport processes at the mouth of San Francisco Bay, with emphasis on how these processes relate to erosion at Ocean Beach. The Ocean Beach Coastal Processes Study is the first comprehensive study of coastal processes at the mouth of San Francisco Bay.

California↗
USGS2025

An unexplained tsunami: Was there megathrust slip during the 2020 Mw7.6 Sand Point, Alaska, earthquake?

On October 19, 2020, the M w 7.6 Sand Point earthquake struck south of the Shumagin Islands in Alaska. Moment tensors indicate the earthquake was primarily strike-slip, yet the event produced an enigmatic tsunami that was larger and more widespread than expected for an earthquake of that magnitude and mechanism. Using a suite of hydrodynamic, seismic, and geodetic modeling techniques, we explore plausible causes of the tsunami. We find that strike-slip models consistent with the moment tensor orientation cannot produce the observed tsunami. Hydrodynamic inversion of sea surface deformation from deep ocean and tide gauge data suggest seafloor deformation more closely matches a megathrust, rather than a strike-slip, source. Static slip inversions, using sea level and Global Navigation Satellite System data, allow for a portion of co-seismic megathrust slip that can explain tsunamigenesis. Combining all available geophysical datasets to model the kinematic rupture, we show that considerable, relatively slow, megathrust slip is allowable in the Shumagin segment, concurrent with strike-slip faulting. We hypothesize that the slow megathrust rupture does not contribute much seismic radiation allowing it to previously go unnoticed with traditional seismic monitoring.

Alaska↗
USGS2019

Ross Ice Shelf response to climate driven by the tectonic imprint on seafloor bathymetry

Ocean melting has thinned Antarctica's ice shelves at an increasing rate over the past two decades, leading to loss of grounded ice. The Ross Ice Shelf is currently close to steady state but geological records indicate that it can disintegrate rapidly, which would accelerate grounded ice loss from catchments equivalent to 11.6 m of global sea level rise. Here, we use data from the ROSETTA-Ice airborne survey and new ocean simulations, to identify the principal threats to Ross Ice Shelf stability. We locate the tectonic boundary between East and West Antarctica from magnetic anomalies and use gravity data to generate a new high-resolution map of sub-ice-shelf bathymetry. The tectonic imprint on bathymetry constrains sub-ice-shelf ocean circulation, protecting the ice shelf grounding line from moderate changes in global ocean heat content. In contrast, local, seasonal production of warm upper-ocean water near the ice front drives rapid ice shelf melting east of Ross Island, where thinning would lead to faster grounded ice loss from both East and West Antarctic ice sheets. We confirm high modelled melt rates in this region using ROSETTA-Ice radar data. Our findings highlight the significance of both the tectonic framework and local ocean-atmosphere exchange processes near the ice front in determining the future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2023

Monitoring and modeling dispersal of a submerged nearshore berm at the mouth of the Columbia River, USA

A submerged, low-relief nearshore berm was constructed in the Pacific Ocean near the mouth of the Columbia River, USA, using 216,000 m 3 of sediment dredged from the adjacent navigation channel. The material dredged from the navigation channel was placed on the northern flank of the ebb-tidal delta in water depths between 12 and 15 m and created a distinct feature that could be tracked over time. Field measurements and numerical modeling were used to evaluate the transport pathways, time scales, and physical processes responsible for dispersal of the berm and evaluate the suitability of the location for operational placement of dredged material to enhance the sediment supply to eroding beaches onshore of the placement site. Repeated multibeam bathymetric surveys characterized the initial berm morphology and dispersion of the berm between September 22, 2020, and March 10, 2021. During this time, the volume of sediment within the berm decreased by about 40%to 127,000 m 3 , the maximum height decreased by almost 60%, and the center of the deposit shifted onshore over 200 m. Observations of berm morphology were compared with predictions from a three-dimensional hydrodynamic and sediment transport model application to refine poorly constrained model input parameters including sediment transport coefficients, bed schematization, and grain size. The calibrated sediment transport model was used to predict the amount, timing, and direction of transport outside of the observed survey area. Model simulations predicted that tidal currents were weak in the vicinity of the berm and wave processes including enhanced bottom stresses and asymmetric bottom orbital velocities resulted in dominant onshore movement of sediment from the berm toward the coastline. Roughly 50% of the berm volume was predicted to disperse away from the initial placement site during the 169 day hindcast. Between 9 and 17% of the initial volume of the berm was predicted to accumulate along the shoreface of a shoreline reach experiencing chronic erosion directly onshore of the placement site. Scenarios exploring alternate placement locations suggested that the berm was relatively effective in enhancing the sediment supply along the eroding coastline north of the inlet. The transferable monitoring and modeling framework developed in this study can be used to inform implementation of strategic nearshore placements and regional sediment management in complex, high-energy coastal environments elsewhere.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2012

Implications of regional gravity for state of stress in the earth's crust and upper mantle

Topography is maintained by stress differences within the earth. Depending on the distribution of the stress we classify the support as either local or regional compensation. In general, the stresses implied in a regional compensation scheme are an order of magnitude larger than those corresponding to local isostasy. Gravity anomalies, a measure of the earth's departure from hydrostatic equilibrium, can be used to distinguish between the two compensation mechanisms and thus to estimate the magnitude of deviatoric stress in the crust and upper mantle. Topography created at an oceanic ridge crest or in a major continental orogenic zone appears to be locally compensated. Such features were formed on weak crust incapable of maintaining stress differences much greater than the stress from the applied load. Oceanic volcanoes formed on an already cooled, thickened lithosphere are regionally supported with elastic stresses. Similarly, the broad topographic rise seaward of subduction zones is elastically supported as the lithosphere is bent near the plate margin. Although the implied stress is to some degree dependent on the rheological model assumed, the gravity anomalies and surface deformation produced by these features demonstrate that the upper 30–40 km of the oceanic lithosphere is capable of regionally supporting stress differences in the 100-MPa range. Given certain conditions of load emplacement, continental crust can also support loads regionally over 100-m.y. time scales, but the effects of erosion only allow an estimate of a lower bound on stress. Data from space probes indicate that the upper layers of other terrestrial planets also support topographic-induced stress differences in excess of 100 MPa.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2022

Development of projected depth-duration frequency curves (2050–89) for south Florida

Planning stormwater projects requires estimates of current and future extreme precipitation depths for events with specified return periods and durations. In this study, precipitation data from four downscaled climate datasets are used to determine changes in precipitation depth-duration-frequency curves from the period 1966–2005 to the period 2050–89 primarily on the basis of Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The four downscaled climate datasets are (1) the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) dataset, (2) the Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) dataset, (3) the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) dataset, and (4) the Jupiter Intelligence Weather Research and Forecasting Model (JupiterWRF) dataset. Change factors—multiplicative changes in expected extreme precipitation magnitude from current to future period—were computed for grid cells from the downscaled climate datasets containing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 stations in central and south Florida. Change factors for specific durations and return periods may be used to scale the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 historical depth-duration-frequency values to the period 2050–89 on the basis of changes in extreme precipitation derived from downscaled climate datasets. Model culling was implemented to select downscaled climate models that best captured observed historical patterns of precipitation extremes in central and south Florida. Overall, a large variation in change factors across downscaled climate datasets was found, with change factors generally greater than one and increasing with return period. In general, median change factors were higher for the south-central Florida climate region (1.05–1.55 depending on downscaled climate dataset, duration, and return period) than for the south Florida climate region (1–1.4 depending on downscaled climate dataset, duration, and return period) when considering best performing models for both areas, indicating a projected overall increase in future extreme precipitation events.

Florida↗
USGS2019

Habitat preference modulates trans-oceanic dispersal in a terrestrial vertebrate

The importance of long-distance dispersal (LDD) in shaping geographical distributions has been debated since the nineteenth century. In terrestrial vertebrates, LDD events across large water bodies are considered highly improbable, but organismal traits affecting dispersal capacity are generally not taken into account. Here, we focus on a recent lizard radiation and combine a summary-coalescent species tree based on 1225 exons with a probabilistic model that links dispersal capacity to an evolving trait, to investigate whether ecological specialization has influenced the probability of trans-oceanic dispersal. Cryptoblepharus species that occur in coastal habitats have on average dispersed 13 to 14 times more frequently than non-coastal species and coastal specialization has, therefore, led to an extraordinarily widespread distribution that includes multiple continents and distant island archipelagoes. Furthermore, their presence across the Pacific substantially predates the age of human colonization and we can explicitly reject the possibility that these patterns are solely shaped by human-mediated dispersal. Overall, by combining new analytical methods with a comprehensive phylogenomic dataset, we use a quantitative framework to show how coastal specialization can influence dispersal capacity and eventually shape geographical distributions at a macroevolutionary scale.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗
USGS2017

Investigation of input reduction techniques for morphodynamic modeling of complex inlets with baroclinic forcing

The Mouth of the Columbia River (MCR) is a complex estuary inlet system characterized by a buoyant plume created by high freshwater flows from the Columbia River into the Pacific Ocean. Data obtained during two major field campaigns have resulted in a comprehensive dataset of hydrodynamics and sediment transport under high (2013) and low (2005) river flow conditions. Through the analysis of this data and model simulations obtained with the Delft3D (MCR) model application we explored the importance and effect of stratification on sand-sized sediment for short- and long-term sediment transport simulations. Stratification influences the sediment transport through much of the estuary, and significantly reduces sediment export at the MCR. A correlation analysis reveals that a similar representative tide that best approximates the spring-neap averaged transport can be selected for both stratified and non-stratified flow. This correspondence implies that standard morphodynamic tide schematizations (e.g. Lesser, 2009) may also be valid in the stratified conditions found at MCR and other highly stratified estuaries.

Columbia River↗