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At least 487 records · Page 27Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Discussion and Review of “Seismology of the Oso-Steelhead landslide” by Hibert, Stark, and Ekstrom

In this study, Hibert et al. use the seismic waves generated by the disastrous 22 March 2014 landslide near Oso, Washington to investigate the dynamics of the event by combining long-period source inversions and short period analysis. Overall the paper is concise and well written and takes an innovative approach by integrating both high- and low-frequency seismic data together in the interpretation. It also demonstrates the useful prospect of resolving a trajectory of the center of mass of the landslide from a few traces of noisy seismic data. However, the main point of discussion that I would like to address stems from differences between the findings by Hibert et al. and the findings of a recently published multidisciplinary paper on the Oso landslide (Iverson et al., 2015). I am a co-author on the paper and performed the seismic analysis, which was similar to that of Hibert et al., yet the interpretation of how the event unfolded differs significantly between the two papers. In my opinion, this stems largely from a difference in information, some of which Hibert et al. unfortunately did not have access to prior to submission because it was just published in Iverson et al. (2015). However, differences also seem to stem from technical details of the methods and data used. Typically, such details are only of interest to seismologists, but in this case they make a substantial difference in understanding how the event unfolded and how it became so disastrous. For that reason, they are worthy of discussion here. The crux of the difference lies in two points 1) Iverson et al. (2015) found a multi-stage initiation of the main event, while Hibert et al. did not and 2) Iverson et al. (2015) found the second high-frequency event to be from a significantly smaller debris fall whereas Hibert et al. estimate it to be a substantial mass. I detail these two points below, then follow with an additional comment regarding the trajectory estimation made by Hibert et al. and some minor comments.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2021

A regional spatio-temporal analysis of large magnitude snow avalanches using tree rings

Snow avalanches affect transportation corridors and settlements worldwide. In many mountainous regions, robust records of avalanche frequency and magnitude are sparse or non-existent. However, dendrochronological methods can be used to fill this gap and infer historical avalanche patterns. In this study, we developed a tree-ring-based avalanche chronology for large magnitude avalanche events (size ≥ ∼ D 3 "> ≥ ∼ D 3 ) using dendrochronological techniques for a portion of the US northern Rocky Mountains. We used a strategic sampling design to examine avalanche activity through time and across nested spatial scales (i.e., from individual paths, four distinct subregions, and the region). We analyzed 673 samples in total from 647 suitable trees collected from 12 avalanche paths from which 2134 growth disturbances were identified over the years 1636 to 2017 CE. Using existing indexing approaches, we developed a regional avalanche activity index to discriminate avalanche events from noise in the tree-ring record. Large magnitude avalanches, common across the region, occurred in 30 individual years and exhibited a median return interval of approximately 3 years (mean = 5.21 years). The median large magnitude avalanche return interval (3–8 years) and the total number of avalanche years (12–18) varies throughout the four subregions, suggesting the important influence of local terrain and weather factors. We tested subsampling routines for regional representation, finding that sampling 8 random paths out of a total of 12 avalanche paths in the region captures up to 83 % of the regional chronology, whereas four paths capture only 43 % to 73 %. The greatest value probability of detection for any given path in our dataset is 40 %, suggesting that sampling a single path would capture no more than 40 % of the regional avalanche activity. Results emphasize the importance of sample size, scale, and spatial extent when attempting to derive a regional large magnitude avalanche event chronology from tree-ring records.

Montana↗
USGS2024

Slope Unit Maker (SUMak): An efficient and parameter-free algorithm for delineating slope units to improve landslide modeling

Slope units are terrain partitions bounded by drainage and divide lines. In landslide modeling, including susceptibility modeling and event-specific modeling of landslide occurrence, slope units provide several advantages over gridded units, such as better capturing terrain geometry, improved incorporation of geospatial landslide-occurrence data in different formats (e.g., point and polygon), and better accommodating the varying data accuracy and precision in landslide inventories. However, the use of slope units in regional ( > 100 km 2 ) landslide studies remains limited due, in part, to the large computational costs and/or poor reproducibility with current delineation methods. We introduce a computationally efficient algorithm for the parameter-free delineation of slope units that leverages tools from within TauDEM and GRASS, using an R interface. The algorithm uses geomorphic laws to define the appropriate scaling of the slope units representative of hillslope processes, avoiding the often ambiguous determination of slope unit size. We then demonstrate how slope units enable more robust regional-scale landslide susceptibility and event-specific landslide occurrence maps.

Natural Hazards and Earth Systems Sciences (NHESS)↗
USGS2024

Assessing locations susceptible to shallow landslide initiation during prolonged intense rainfall in the Lares, Utuado, and Naranjito municipalities of Puerto Rico

Hurricane Maria induced about 70 000 landslides throughout Puerto Rico, USA, including thousands each in three municipalities situated in Puerto Rico's rugged Cordillera Central range. By combining a nonlinear soil-depth model, presumed wettest-case pore pressures, and quasi-three-dimensional (3D) slope-stability analysis, we developed a landslide susceptibility map that has very good performance and continuous susceptibility zones having smooth, buffered boundaries. Our landslide susceptibility map enables assessment of potential ground-failure locations and their use as landslide sources in a companion assessment of inundation and debris-flow runout. The quasi-3D factor of safety, F 3 , showed strong inverse correlation to landslide density (high density at low F 3 ). Area under the curve (AUC) of true positive rate (TPR) versus false positive rate (FPR) indicated success of F 3 in identifying head-scarp points (AUC = 0.84) and source-area polygons (0.85 ≤ AUC ≤ 0.88). The susceptibility zones enclose specific percentages of observed landslides. Thus, zone boundaries use successive F 3 levels for increasing TPR of landslide head-scarp points, with zones bounded by F 3 at TPR = 0.75, very high; F 3 at TPR = 0.90, high; and the remainder moderate to low. The very high susceptibility zone, with 118 landslides km −2 , covered 23 % of the three municipalities. The high zone (51 landslides km −2 ) covered another 10 %.

Puerto Rice↗
USGS2025

Invited perspectives: Integrating hydrologic information into the next generation of landslide early warning systems

Although rainfall-triggered landslides are initiated by subsurface hydro-mechanical processes related to the loading, weakening, and eventual failure of slope materials, most landslide early warning systems (LEWS) have relied solely on rainfall event information. In previous decades, several studies demonstrated the value of integrating proxies for subsurface hydrologic information to improve rainfall-based forecasting of shallow landslides. More recently, broader access to commercial sensors and telemetry for real-time data transmission has invigorated new research into hydrometeorological thresholds for LEWS. Given the increasing number of studies across the globe using hydrologic monitoring, mathematical modeling, or both in combination, it is now possible to make some insights into the advantages versus limitations of this approach. The extensive progress demonstrates the value of in situ hydrologic information for reducing both failed and false alarms, through the ability to characterize infiltration during, as well as the drainage and drying processes between major storm events. There are also some areas for caution surrounding the long-term sustainability of subsurface monitoring in landslide-prone terrain, as well as unresolved questions in hillslope hydrologic modeling, which relies heavily on the assumptions of diffuse flow and vertical infiltration but often ignores preferential flow and lateral drainage. Here, we share a collective perspective based on our previous collaborative work across Europe, North America, Africa, and Asia to discuss these challenges and provide some guidelines for integrating knowledge of hydrology and climate into the next generation of LEWS. We propose that the greatest opportunity for improvement is through a measure-and-model approach to develop an understanding of landslide hydro-climatology that accounts for local controls on subsurface storage dynamics. Additionally, new efforts focused on the subsurface hydrology are complementary to existing rainfall-based methods, so leveraging these with near-term precipitation forecasts is a priority for increasing lead times.

Alaska↗
USGS2005

Undersea landslides: Extent and significance in the Pacific Ocean, an update

Submarine landslides are known to occur disproportionately in a limited number of environments including fjords, deltas, canyons, volcanic islands and the open continental slope. An evaluation of the progress that has been made in understanding Pacific Ocean submarine landslides over the last 15 years shows that mapping technologies have improved greatly, allowing a better interpretation of landslide features. Some features previously identified as landslides are being reinterpreted by some as sediment waves. Previously underappreciated environments for landslides such as deep-sea trenches are being recognized and lava deltas are being found to be landslide prone. Landslides are also being recognized much more commonly as a potential source of tsunamis. Landslides that have produced tsunamis in the past are being mapped and in some cases modeled. The flow characteristics of turbidity currents produced by landslides in canyon heads have recently been monitored and the source of these failures has been identified using repeated multibeam mapping. Finally, some landslide deposits are being dated as part of assessing risk to coastal cities from landslide-tsunamis. European Geosciences Union ?? 2005 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2005

A magnetotelluric study of the sensitivity of an area to seismoelectric signals

During recent years, efforts at better understanding the physical properties of precursory ultra-low frequency pre-seismic electric signals (SES) have been intensified. Experiments show that SES cannot be observed at all points of the Earth's surface but only at certain so-called sensitive sites. Moreover, a sensitive site is capable of collecting SES from only a restricted number of seismic areas (selectivity effect). Tberefore the installation of a permanent station appropriate for SES collection should necessarily be preceded by a pilot study over a broad area and for a long duration. In short, a number of temporary stations are installed and, after the occurrence of several significant earthquakes (EQs) from a given seismic area, the most appropriate (if any) of these temporary stations, in the sense that they happen to collect SES, can be selected as permanent. Such a long experiment constitutes a serious disadvantage in identifying a site as SES sensitive. However, the SES sensitivity of a site should be related to the geoelectric structure of the area that hosts the site as well as the regional geoelectric structure between the station and the seismic focal area. Thus, knowledge of the local and regional geoelectric structure can dramatically reduce the time involved in identifying SES sites. hi this paper the magnetotelluric method is used to investigate the conductivity structure of an area where a permanent SES station is in operation. Although general conclusions cannot be drawn, the area surrounding an SES site near Ioannina, Greece is characterized by: (1) major faults in the vicinity; (2) highly resistive structure flanked by abrupt conductivity contrasts associated with large-scale geologic contacts, and (3) local inhomogeneities in conductivity structure. The above results are consistent with the fact that electric field amplitudes from remotely-generated signals should be appreciably stronger at such sites when compared to neighboring sites. European Geosciences Union ?? 2005 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2005

Calibration of numerical models for small debris flows in Yosemite Valley, California, USA

This study compares documented debris flow runout distances with numerical simulations in the Yosemite Valley of California, USA, where about 15% of historical events of slope instability can be classified as debris flows and debris slides (Wieczorek and Snyder, 2004). To model debris flows in the Yosemite Valley, we selected six streams with evidence of historical debris flows; three of the debris flow deposits have single channels, and the other three split their pattern in the fan area into two or more channels. From field observations all of the debris flows involved coarse material, with only very small clay content. We applied the one dimensional DAN (Dynamic ANalysis) model (Hungr, 1995) and the two-dimensional FLO2D model (O'Brien et al., 1993) to predict and compare the runout distance and the velocity of the debris flows observed in the study area. As a first step, we calibrated the parameters for the two softwares through the back analysis of three debris- flows channels using a trial-and-error procedure starting with values suggested in the literature. In the second step we applied the selected values to the other channels, in order to evaluate their predictive capabilities. After parameter calibration using three debris flows we obtained results similar to field observations We also obtained a good agreement between the two models for velocities. Both models are strongly influenced by topography: we used the 30 m cell size DTM available for the study area, that is probably not accurate enough for a highly detailed analysis, but it can be sufficient for a first screening. European Geosciences Union ?? 2005 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2006

Submarine landslides in the Santa Barbara Channel as potential tsunami sources

Recent investigations using the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institutes (MBARI) Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROVs) "Ventana" and "Tiburon" and interpretation of MBARI's EM 300 30 kHz multibeam bathymetric data show that the northern flank of the Santa Barbara Basin has experienced massive slope failures. Of particular concern is the large (130 km2) Goleta landslide complex located off Coal Oil Point near the town of Goleta, that measures 14.6-km long extending from a depth of 90 m to nearly 574 m deep and is 10.5 km wide. We estimate that approximately 1.75 km3 has been displaced by this slide during the Holocene. This feature is a complex compound submarine landslide that contains both surfical slump blocks and mud flows in three distinct segments. Each segment is composed of a distinct head scarp, down-dropped head block and a slide debris lobe. The debris lobes exhibit hummocky topography in the central areas that appear to result from compression during down slope movement. The toes of the western and eastern lobes are well defined in the multibeam image, whereas the toe of the central lobe is less distinct. Continuous seismic reflection profiles show that many buried slide debris lobes exist and comparison of the deformed reflectors with ODP Drill Site 149, Hole 893 suggest that at least 200 000 years of failure have occurred in the area (Fisher et al., 2005a). Based on our interpretation of the multibeam bathymetry and seismic reflection profiles we modeled the potential tsunami that may have been produced from one of the three surfical lobes of the Goleta slide. This model shows that a 10 m high wave could have run ashore along the cliffs of the Goleta shoreline. Several other smaller (2 km2 and 4 km2) slides are located on the northern flank of the Santa Barbara Basin, both to the west and east of Goleta slide and on the Concepcion fan along the western flank of the basin. One slide, named the Gaviota slide, is 3.8 km2, 2.6 km long and 1.7 km wide. A distinct narrow scar extends from near the eastern head wall of this slide for over 2 km eastward toward the Goleta slide and may represent either an incipient failure or a remnant of a previous failure. Push cores collected within the main head scar of this slide consisted of hydrogen sulfide bearing mud, possibly suggesting active fluid seepage and a vibra-core penetrated ???50 cm of recent sediment overlying colluvium or landslide debris confirming the age of ???300 years as proposed by Lee et al. (2004). However, no seeps or indications of recent movement were observed during our ROV investigation within this narrow head scar indicating that seafloor in the scar is draped with mud. ?? 2006 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2007

Influence of tectonic folding on rockfall susceptibility, American Fork Canyon, Utah, USA

We examine rockfall susceptibility of folded strata in the Sevier fold-thrust belt exposed in American Fork Canyon in north-central Utah. Large-scale geologic mapping, talus production data, rock-mass-quality measurements, and historical rockfall data indicate that rockfall susceptibility is correlated with limb dip and curvature of the folded, cliff-forming Mississippian limestones. On fold limbs, rockfall susceptibility increases as dip increases. This relation is controlled by several factors, including an increase in adverse dip conditions and apertures of discontinuities, and shearing by flexural slip during folding that has reduced the friction angles of discontinuities by smoothing surface asperities. Susceptibility is greater in fold hinge zones than on adjacent limbs primarily because there are greater numbers of discontinuities in hinge zones. We speculate that susceptibility increases in hinge zones as fold curvature becomes tighter.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2010

Assessing societal vulnerability of U.S. Pacific Northwest communities to storm-induced coastal change

Progressive increases in storm intensities and extreme wave heights have been documented along the U.S. West Coast. Paired with global sea level rise and the potential for an increase in El Niño occurrences, these trends have substantial implications for the vulnerability of coastal communities to natural coastal hazards. Community vulnerability to hazards is characterized by the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of human-environmental systems that influence potential impacts. To demonstrate how societal vulnerability to coastal hazards varies with both physical and social factors, we compared community exposure and sensitivity to storm-induced coastal change scenarios in Tillamook (Oregon) and Pacific (Washington) Counties. While both are backed by low-lying coastal dunes, communities in these two counties have experienced different shoreline change histories and have chosen to use the adjacent land in different ways. Therefore, community vulnerability varies significantly between the two counties. Identifying the reasons for this variability can help land-use managers make decisions to increase community resilience and reduce vulnerability in spite of a changing climate.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2016

Money matters: Rapid post-earthquake financial decision-making

Post-earthquake financial decision-making is a realm beyond that of many people. In the immediate aftermath of a damaging earthquake, billions of dollars of relief, recovery, and insurance funds are in the balance through new financial instruments that allow those with resources to hedge against disasters and those at risk to limit their earthquake losses and receive funds for response and recovery.

Natural Hazards Observer↗
USGS2007

Preliminary Assessment of Volcanic and Hydrothermal Hazards in Yellowstone National Park and Vicinity

Possible future violent events in the active hydrothermal, magmatic, and tectonic system of Yellowstone National Park pose potential hazards to park visitors and infrastructure. Most of the national park and vicinity are sparsely populated, but significant numbers of people as well as park resources could nevertheless be at risk from these hazards. Depending on the nature and magnitude of a particular hazardous event and the particular time and season when it might occur, 70,000 to more than 100,000 persons could be affected; the most violent events could affect a broader region or even continent-wide areas. This assessment of such hazards is presented both as a guide for future activities of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) and to aid appropriate response planning by the National Park Service and surrounding agencies and communities. Although the assessment is presented here in some technical detail, this summary is intended to be understandable to non-scientists. The principal conclusions also will be made available in other forms, more accessible to general readers.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1987

Failure of a massive earthquake-induced landslide dam in Papua New Guinea

In many areas of the world, landslides dams are both interesting natural phenomena and significant hazards. A few of the these natural blockages attain heights that rival or exceed those of the largest manmade dams. A landslide dam in its natural state differs from a constructed embankment dam in that it is composed of a heterogeneous mass of poorly consolidated earth debris and has no channeled spillway or other protected outlet for its impoundment. Having no outlet, landslide dams upon overtopping very commonly fail by breaching due to erosion by the overflowing stream. Some of the world's largest and most devastating floods have occurred because of the failure of large landslide dams (Schuster and Costa, 1986). This article discusses the recent occurrence of a large earthquake-induced landslide that dammed the Bairaman River in the interior of the island of New Britian, Papua New Guinea, and the subsequent overtopping and failure of this landslide dam.

New Britain↗
USGS2005

Risk analysis for biological hazards: What we need to know about invasive species

Risk analysis for biological invasions is similar to other types of natural and human hazards. For example, risk analysis for chemical spills requires the evaluation of basic information on where a spill occurs; exposure level and toxicity of the chemical agent; knowledge of the physical processes involved in its rate and direction of spread; and potential impacts to the environment, economy, and human health relative to containment costs. Unlike typical chemical spills, biological invasions can have long lag times from introduction and establishment to successful invasion, they reproduce, and they can spread rapidly by physical and biological processes. We use a risk analysis framework to suggest a general strategy for risk analysis for invasive species and invaded habitats. It requires: (1) problem formation (scoping the problem, defining assessment endpoints); (2) analysis (information on species traits, matching species traits to suitable habitats, estimating exposure, surveys of current distribution and abundance); (3) risk characterization (understanding of data completeness, estimates of the “potential” distribution and abundance; estimates of the potential rate of spread; and probable risks, impacts, and costs); and (4) risk management (containment potential, costs, and opportunity costs; legal mandates and social considerations and information science and technology needs).

Risk Analysis↗
USGS2005

An assessment of volcanic threat and monitoring capabilities in the United States: Framework for a National Volcano Early Warning System

Executive Summary NVEWS – a National Volcano Early Warning System – is being formulated by the Consortium of U.S. Volcano Observatories (CUSVO) to establish a proactive, fully integrated, national-scale monitoring effort that ensures the most threatening volcanoes in the United States are properly monitored in advance of the onset of unrest and at levels commensurate with the threats posed. Volcanic threat is the combination of hazards (the destructive natural phenomena produced by a volcano) and exposure (people and property at risk from the hazards). The United States has abundant volcanoes, and over the past 25 years the Nation has experienced a diverse range of the destructive phenomena that volcanoes can produce. Hazardous volcanic activity will continue to occur, and – because of increasing population, increasing development, and expanding national and international air traffic over volcanic regions – the exposure of human life and enterprise to volcano hazards is increasing. Fortunately, volcanoes exhibit precursory unrest that if detected and analyzed in time allows eruptions to be anticipated and communities at risk to be forewarned with reliable information in sufficient time to implement response plans and mitigation measures. In the 25 years since the cataclysmic eruption of Mount St. Helens, scientific and technological advances in volcanology have been used to develop and test models of volcanic behavior and to make reliable forecasts of expected activity a reality. Until now, these technologies and methods have been applied on an ad hoc basis to volcanoes showing signs of activity. However, waiting to deploy a robust, modern monitoring effort until a hazardous volcano awakens and an unrest crisis begins is socially and scientifically unsatisfactory because it forces scientists, civil authorities, citizens, and businesses into “playing catch up” with the volcano, trying to get instruments and civil-defense measures in place before the unrest escalates and the situation worsens. Inevitably, this manner of response results in our missing crucial early stages of the volcanic unrest and hampers our ability to accurately forecast events. Restless volcanoes do not always progress to eruption; nevertheless, monitoring is necessary in such cases to minimize either over-reacting, which costs money, or under-reacting, which may cost lives. Volcano monitoring in the U.S. is conducted by five volcano observatories, supported primarily by the USGS Volcano Hazards Program. Under the Stafford Act, the USGS is responsible for issuing timely warnings of potential volcanic disasters to the affected populace and civil authorities. To make maximum use of the Nation’s scientific resources, the USGS operates the observatories with the help of universities and other governmental agencies, through formal partnerships. At present, about half of the most threatening U.S. volcanoes are monitored at a basic level with real-time sensors (primarily seismic arrays), and a few are well monitored with a suite of modern instrument types and methods. However, monitoring capabilities at many hazardous volcanoes are known to be sparse or antiquated, and some hazardous volcanoes have no ground-based monitoring whatsoever.

Marianas Islands↗
USGS2026

Delayed submarine caldera subsidence creates extreme tsunami hazard

The 2022 Hunga volcano eruption generated one of the largest and most destructive volcanic tsunamis ever recorded. We interpret the timing, nature and relative hazard of volcanic-tsunamigenic processes by combining geophysical, oceanographic, atmospheric, and eye-witness observations of this event. Hydro-acoustic signal ( T waves) detected on seismic stations up to 2600 km away provided a key to discerning tsunami triggers from explosions, volcanic mass flows, and caldera subsidence. The largest tsunami was generated by the first of at least two sudden caldera-subsidence events. This occurred 1 hour after globally detected explosions that produced smaller tsunami. Our results provide rare insights into the rates of caldera subsidence and highlight the complex multiple sources of tsunamis resulting from eruptions of oceanic volcanoes.

Hunga volcano↗