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USGS2000

Compositional analyses of small lunar pyroclastic deposits using Clementine multispectral data

Clementine ultraviolet-visible (UVVIS) data are used to examine the compositions of 18 pyroclastic deposits (15 small, three large) at 13 sites on the Moon. Compositional variations among pyroclastic deposits largely result from differing amounts of new basaltic (or juvenile) material and reworked local material entrained in their ejecta upon eruption. Characterization of pyroclastic deposit compositions allows us to understand the mechanisms of lunar explosive volcanism. Evidence for compositional differences between small pyroclastic deposits at a single site is observed at Atlas crater. At all sites, compositional variation among the small pyroclastic deposits is consistent with earlier classification based on Earth-based spectra: three compositional groups can be observed, and the trend of increasing mafic absorption band strength from Group 1 to Group 2 to Group 3 is noted. As redefined here, Group 1 deposits include those of Alphonsus West, Alphonsus Southeast, Alphonsus Northeast 2, Atlas South, Crüger, Franklin, Grimaldi, Lavoisier, Oppenheimer, Orientale, and Riccioli. Group 1 deposits resemble lunar highlands, with weak mafic bands and relatively high UV/VIS ratios. Group 2 deposits include those of Alphonsus Northeast 1, Atlas North, Eastern Frigoris East and West, and Aristarchus Plateau; Group 2 deposits are similar to mature lunar maria, with moderate mafic band depths and intermediate UV/VIS ratios. The single Group 3 deposit, J. Herschel, has a relatively strong mafic band and a low UV/VIS ratio, and olivine is a likely juvenile component. Two of the deposits in these groups, Orientale and Aristarchus, are large pyroclastic deposits. The third large pyroclastic deposit, Apollo 17/Taurus Littrow, has a very weak mafic band and a high UV/VIS ratio and it does not belong to any of the compositional groups for small pyroclastic deposits. The observed compositional variations indicate that highland and mare materials are also present in many large and small pyroclastic deposits, and they suggest that volcanic glasses or spheres may not be dominant juvenile components in all large pyroclastic deposits.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS2003

Temporal connectivity in a prairie pothole complex

A number of studies have noted the occurrence of intermittent surface-water connections between depressional wetlands in general and prairie potholes in particular. Yet, the ecological implications of such connections remain largely unexplored. In 1995, we observed spillage into and out of a North Dakota wetland during two field visits. Between May 3 and May 26, there was a positive relationship between specific conductance and water level at this site, suggesting an external source of dissolved ions. We estimated that specific conductance may have increased at the site by as much as 614 μS cm −1 due to spillage from the upslope wetland. Based on a spatial analysis that compared National Wetlands Inventory maps with 1996 color infrared imagery, we estimated that 28% of the area’s wetlands had a temporary surface water connection to at least one other wetland at that time, including one complex of 14 interconnected wetlands. These results indicate that the connectivity observed in 1995 was not confined to the two wetlands nor to that single year. The degree of connectivity we observed would be expected to occur during the wetter portions of the region’s 20-year wet-dry cycle. We hypothesize that intermittent surface-water connections between wetlands occur throughout the prairie pothole region. Given patterns in relief and precipitation, these connections most likely would have occurred in the eastern portion of the prairie pothole region. However, wetland drainage may have altered historical patterns. The implication of these spatial and temporal trends is that surface-water connections between depressional wetlands should be viewed as a probability event that has some distribution over time and space. We refer to connections that are impermanent, temporally discontinuous, or sporadic as temporal connectivity. The most intriguing feature of these temporary connections may be that they could affect biodiversity or population dynamics through transport of individuals or reproductive bodies. Research is needed to determine whether these connections actually cause these biological effects and to characterize the distribution and effects of this phenomenon.

Wetlands↗

USGS1978

Iron in water near wastewater lagoons in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming

High dissolved-iron concentrations have been noted in water in wells used to monitor effluent that percolates from wastewater disposal lagoons near Old Faithful in Yellowstone National Park. The concentration of dissolved iron in water in a well increased from 80 μ g/L (micrograms per liter) before a nearby lagoon was .used for disposal of effluent to 17000 μ g/L after the lagoon was used. The effluent contained 180 μ g/L of dissolved iron, and nearby Iron Spring Creek contained 30 μ g/L or less of dissolved iron above and below the lagoons. Organic carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur in the effluent as methane, ammonia, and hydrogen sulfide are oxidized to carbon dioxide, nitrate, and sulfate, respectively, in the unsaturated zone and possibly in the saturated zone as ground water moves through sand and gravel toward Iron Spring Creek. This oxidation results in simultaneous reduction of iron in the sand and gravel from the insoluble ferric phase to the soluble ferrous phase. As ground water high in dissolved iron discharges at land surface near the stream, oxygen from the atmosphere oxidizes the iron back to the insoluble ferric phase, and ferric hydroxide precipitates. Ferric hydroxide also precipitates in some of the monitoring wells. Iron bacteria and other organisms are associated with the precipitates.

Wyoming↗

USGS1978

Recognition of oxidized sulfide minerals as an exploration guide for uranium

The difference in color between tan to red oxidized sandstone and gray reduced sandstone on either side of the reduction-oxidation (redox) interface, which is- the locus of uranium concentration in roll-type deposits, has been noted and used locally as an exploration guide within known uranium districts. Reduced sandstone is characterized in many deposits by the presence of iron sulflde minerals (particularly marcasite and pyrite) that occur as replacements of and overgrowths on iron-titanium oxide minerals and plant debris and as cement of detrital grains. Oxidation of the sulfldes by oxygenated ground water forms yellow to red ferric oxide and ferric hydroxide phases ("limonite") that replace the FeS 2 minerals. Processes other than the oxidation of sulfldes, however, can cause reddening of clastic sediments without the creation of a redox boundary, and so color alone is not a sufficient condition by which to judge the potential for uranium ore in frontier areas. Ferric oxides that form by the oxidation of iron sulflde minerals can be distinguished from other forms of ferric oxide by reflection microscopic examination of polished grain mounts- and polished thin sections'. Diagnostic features of oxidized sulfldes are limonite pseudomorphs of sulfldes and limonite containing internal textures that mimic characteristic textures of previously sulfldized detrital phases. Recognition of oxidized sulfides by reflection microscopy, then, can distinguish oxidized sandstones, which might have a redox boundary downdip and which would therefore be favorable hosts for uranium concentration, from those without such potential.

Journal of Research of the U.S. Geological Survey↗

USGS2010

Iceberg calving as a primary source of regional‐scale glacier‐generated seismicity in the St. Elias Mountains, Alaska

Since the installation of the Alaska Regional Seismic Network in the 1970s, data analysts have noted nontectonic seismic events thought to be related to glacier dynamics. While loose associations with the glaciers of the St. Elias Mountains have been made, no detailed study of the source locations has been undertaken. We performed a two-step investigation surrounding these events, beginning with manual locations that guided an automated detection and event sifting routine. Results from the manual investigation highlight characteristics of the seismic waveforms including single-peaked (narrowband) spectra, emergent onsets, lack of distinct phase arrivals, and a predominant cluster of locations near the calving termini of several neighboring tidewater glaciers. Through these locations, comparison with previous work, analyses of waveform characteristics, frequency-magnitude statistics and temporal patterns in seismicity, we suggest calving as a source for the seismicity. Statistical properties and time series analysis of the event catalog suggest a scale-invariant process that has no single or simple forcing. These results support the idea that calving is often a response to short-lived or localized stress perturbations. Our results demonstrate the utility of passive seismic instrumentation to monitor relative changes in the rate and magnitude of iceberg calving at tidewater glaciers that may be volatile or susceptible to ensuing rapid retreat, especially when existing seismic infrastructure can be used.

Alaska↗

USGS2005

Vascular Plant and Vertebrate Inventory of Tumacacori National Historical Park

Executive Summary This report summarizes the results of the first comprehensive biological inventory of Tumacacori National Historical Park (NHP) in southern Arizona. These surveys were part of a larger effort to inventory vascular plants and vertebrates in eight National Park Service units in Arizona and New Mexico. From 2000 to 2003 we surveyed for vascular plants and vertebrates (fish, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals) at Tumacacori NHP to document presence of species within the administrative boundaries of the park's three units. Because we used repeatable study designs and standardized field techniques, these inventories can serve as the first step in a long-term monitoring program. We recorded 591 species at Tumacacori NHP, significantly increasing the number of known species for the park (Table 1). Species of note in each taxonomic group include: * Plants: second record in Arizona of muster John Henry, a non-native species that is ranked a 'Class A noxious weed' in California; * Amphibian: Great Plains narrow-mouthed toad; * Reptiles: eastern fence lizard and Sonoran mud turtle; * Birds: yellow-billed cuckoo, green kingfisher, and one observation of the endangered southwestern willow flycatcher; * Fishes: four native species including an important population of the endangered Gila topminnow in the Tumacacori Channel; * Mammals: black bear and all four species of skunk known to occur in Arizona. We recorded 79 non-native species (Table E.S.1), many of which are of management concern, including: Bermudagrass, tamarisk, western mosquitofish, largemouth bass, bluegill, sunfish, American bullfrog, feral cats and dogs, and cattle. We also noted an abundance of crayfish (a non-native invertebrate). We review some of the important non-native species and make recommendations to remove them or to minimize their impacts on the native biota of the park. Based on the observed species richness, Tumacacori NHP possesses high biological diversity of plants, fish, and birds for a park of its size. This richness is due in part to the ecotone between ecological provinces (Madrean and Sonoran), the geographic distribution of the three units (23 km separates the most distant units), and their close proximity to the Santa Cruz River. The mesic life zone along the river, including rare cottonwood/willow forests and adjacent mesquite bosque at the Tumacacori unit, is representative of areas that have been destroyed or degraded in many other locations in the region. Additional elements such as the semi-desert grassland vegetation community are also related to high species richness for some taxonomic groups. This report includes lists of species recorded by us (or likely to be recorded with additional effort) and maps of study sites. We also suggest management implications and ways to maintain or enhance the unique biological resources of Tumacacori NHP: limit development adjacent to the park, exclude cattle and off-road vehicles, develop an eradication plan for non-native species, and hire a natural resource specialist. These recommendations are intended to assist park staff with addressing many of the goals set out in their most recent natural resources management plan. This study is the first step in a long-term process of compiling information on the biological resources of Tumacacori NHP and its surrounding areas, and our findings should not be viewed as the final authority on the plants and animals of the park. Therefore, we also recommend additional inventory and monitoring studies and identify components of our effort that could be improved upon, either through the application of new techniques (e.g., use of genetic markers) or by extending the temporal and/or spatial scope of our research.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2023

Habitat utilization, demography, and behavioral observations of the squat lobster, Eumunida picta (Crustacea: Anomura: Eumunididae), on western North Atlantic deep-water coral habitats

Deep-sea coral habitats, comprising mostly Lophelia pertusa (Linnaeus 1758), are well developed on the upper and middle continental slope off the southeastern United States (SEUS). These habitats support a diverse and abundant invertebrate fauna, yet ecology and biology of most of these species are poorly known. Ten cruises conducted off the SEUS (Summer–Fall; Cape Lookout, NC–Cape Canaveral, FL) from 2000 to 2005, and in 2009 provided an opportunity to investigate abundance and distribution of Eumunida picta Smith1883, a large-sized species of squat lobster commonly associated with these deep-water coral habitats. Video analysis from 70 manned-submersible dives documented occurrence, density, location on the coral colony, and behavioral observations for 5774 individuals of E . picta . Individuals collected (n = 178) from coral and adjacent habitats (e.g., rubble, soft sediments) were measured and their sex determined. Males and females were comparable in size (to 53.5 mm carapace length) and exhibited a sex ratio of approximately 1:1. Eumunida picta were most frequently observed as solitary individuals on high-profile coral matrix and were noted only infrequently on coral rubble, or rarely on soft substratum. Presence of coral habitat (i.e., live/dead L. pertusa ), geographic region within the sampling area, and depth significantly influenced abundances of E. picta . Additionally, coral habitat (dead versus live coral), vertical position on the coral (upper, middle, or lower zone), as well as horizontal position in relation to the coral matrix (outer surface versus embedded in coral matrix) were significant factors influencing E. picta distributions within the coral habitat. More individuals were found on dead versus live coral, and most frequently occurred on the outer surfaces of coral branches located on the upper portion or near the tops of coral colonies. Eumunida picta were most often observed with claws extended into the water column. This unique hunting stance provides this squat lobster the opportunity to capture prey from the water column. An active predator, this species utilizes both pelagic (i.e., fishes, pyrosomes) and benthic (e.g., scavenging and grazing) food resources, and may function as an important trophic link between the water column and the benthos. Although considered a facultative reef associate in the strictest sense of the term, E. picta has a complex and intimate relationship with L. pertusa . Based on observations from dive videos, E. picta is a dominant and ecologically important member of the invertebrate assemblage associated with deep-sea coral habitats off the SEUS. As such, this species figures prominently in the structure and function of this ecosystem.

western North Atlantic↗

USGS2016

Paleomagnetic record determined in cores from deep research wells in the Quaternary Santa Clara basin, California

Paleomagnetic study of cores from six deep wells provides an independent temporal framework for much of the alluvial stratigraphy of the Quaternary basin beneath the Santa Clara Valley. This stratigraphy consists of 8 upward-fining cycles in the upper 300 m of section and an underlying 150 m or more of largely fine-grained sediment. The eight cycles have been correlated with the marine oxygen isotope record, thus providing one means of dating the section. The section has also proved to contain a rich paleomagnetic record despite the intermittent sedimentation characteristic of alluvial environments. Each well was designed to reach a depth of ~300 m, although 2 were terminated at shallower depth where bedrock was encountered and one (GUAD) was deepened to bedrock at 407.2 m. Cores were taken at intermittent intervals in most of the wells, composing ~20%–25% of their depths. In GUAD an attempt was made to core the entire upper 300 m, with core recovery of 201.8 m (67%). The paleomagnetic framework ranges from the 32 ka Mono Lake excursion near the top of the second sedimentary cycle to below the 780 ka Brunhes-Matuyama geomagnetic reversal beneath the eighth cycle. These ages nicely fit those assigned to the section based on correlation with the marine oxygen isotope record. Several episodes of anomalous magnetic inclinations were also found within the cyclic section in some of the wells. Some of the episodes of anomalous magnetic inclinations are only separated by short normal intervals in a pattern similar to that described for some welldocumented excursions. We consider that a geomagnetic excursion was likely only if the anomalous inclinations were found at approximately the same stratigraphic position in more than one drill hole. A deeper time constraint is provided by the upper boundary (990 ka) of the Jaramillo Normal Polarity Subchron recognized at a depth of 302 m in one deeply penetrating well (GUAD). Approximately 100 m of normal Jaramillo section is evident below that in wells GUAD and EVGR. The reversal that we identify as the 780 ka Brunhes-Matuyama boundary, found at depths of 291–303 m in three wells, indicates an average rate of deposition in this upper section of ~37 cm/k.y. In GUAD, the top of the underlying normally polarized section, which we assign to the upper part of the Jaramillo Normal Polarity Subchron, was found between 301.8 and 304.5 m. The resultant 10 m of reversed polarity section above the Jaramillo seems anomalously short for this 210 k.y. part of the Matuyama Chron, during which several times that thickness of section probably should have accumulated. This observation indicates that a significant unconformity should be present in that short section between the Jaramillo Subchron and the Brunhes-Matuyama boundary. Deeper cores in two wells (GUAD and EVGR) all have normal polarity and seem to represent much of the Jaramillo Subchron, although no base for that subchron was found. The resultant minimum rate of sedimentation for this lower section beneath the unconformity is 170 cm/k.y. The Mono Lake (ca. 32 ka), Pringle Falls (ca. 210 ka), and Big Lost (ca. 565 ka) geomagnetic excursions all seem to be represented in the Santa Clara Valley wells. Possible correlations to the Laschamp (ca. 40 ka) and Blake (ca. 110 ka) excursions are also noted. Three additional excursions that have apparently not been previously reported from western North America occur within cycle 6 (between 536 and 433 ka), near the base of cycle 5 (after 433 ka), and near the middle of cycle 2 (before ca. 75 ka).

California↗

USGS2026

Evaluation of turbidity corrections for EXO fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM) sensors

Executive Summary The use of field-deployable fluorescence sensors to better understand dissolved organic matter concentrations and composition has grown immensely in recent years. Applications of these sensors to critical monitoring efforts have also grown, encompassing post-fire monitoring, wastewater tracking, and use as a proxy for various contaminants. Despite the growth, it is well known that these sensors require corrections for temperature (Watras and others, 2011) and are subject to many light-field interferences caused by both scattering and absorbance due to dissolved and particulate substances (Downing and others, 2012; Lee and others, 2015; Booth and others, 2023). The most common fluorescence sensors used by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) include those targeting fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM) and chlorophylls. Because fDOM sensors primarily measure fluorescence in the dissolved to colloidal phases, corrections to the interferences caused by particulates can be made relatively easily. By the end of 2024, the USGS had 69 fDOM sensors deployed within official water quality monitoring networks included on the USGS National Water Dashboard ( https://dashboard.waterdata.usgs.gov/app/nwd/en/ ) and numerous others used in surveys and research applications across the Nation. Although temperature corrections are widely applicable across sensor models, interference corrections can be model specific due to differences in design specifications across manufacturers and models (Booth and others, 2023). The corrections are also potentially subject to changes in manufacturing within a specific sensor model. Recently, USGS staff obtained information regarding possible changes in the manufacturing of its most widely-used fDOM sensor model, raising concerns about data consistency and quality in the USGS fDOM sensor networks. Furthermore, changes in turbidity sensors since the corrections guidance was performed may also affect the performance of the corrections. The turbidity sensor used in the original experiments (Downing and others, 2012) was determined to have a signal output approximately 1.3 times higher than the output of the turbidity sensor currently used in an extensive field comparison study (Messner and others, 2023). With these changes, it is imperative that the corrections be reevaluated to maintain data consistency and continuity across the USGS. In this study, we evaluated turbidity corrections for fDOM sensors over a range of serial numbers covering manufacturing dates 2015 through 2022 and turbidity serial numbers covering the range 2013 through 2022. The goal was to determine whether reported changes in the manufacturing process of the fDOM and turbidity sensors affected the correction approach developed by Downing and others (2012) such that additional guidance would be required to address this manufacturing change. To evaluate, we repeated a laboratory-based test similar to that performed by Downing and others (2012) in which a series of tank experiments with multiple sensors were deployed in a suspension of Elliot Silt Loam (ESL). High turbidities of the ESL suspension were maintained throughout the tank by turbulent recirculation using submersible pumps. Particulates were removed using a recirculated line equipped with a capsule filter (0.45 micron). Measurements were collected throughout the filtration until turbidities reached approximately 5 formazin nephelometric units (FNU; data available in Baxter and others, 2023). Each experimental run included a mixture of unique sensor combinations to account for variability imposed by the turbidity and temperature sensors. The fDOM correction factor was calculated for each combination of fDOM and turbidity sensors included in the test. We observed no systematic change in fDOM correction coefficients across serial numbers representing manufacturing years 2015 through 2022. However, the results highlighted questions raised about the corrections for high-turbidity samples, as noted in USGS Techniques and Methods (Booth and others, 2023). Applying the inverse of the commonly-used fDOM ratio with a quadratic fit performed better than the exponential fits when correcting fDOM data for turbidity in the ESL laboratory filtration test and generated a simple scale factor correction equation. This approach also served as a better indicator of data quality than the exponential fit approach. Similar to fDOM, more rigorous quality assurance measures may be necessary to evaluate turbidity sensor calibrations and performance. Sensors exceeding a certain age may need to be replaced despite passing quality assurance checks during calibration. Further testing of the turbidity corrections for different sediment and water types is warranted to better understand the variations in the fits and correctable ranges of turbidity in different systems.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2011

Geologic map of the Ganiki Planitia quadrangle (V-14), Venus

The Ganiki Planitia (V-14) quadrangle on Venus, which extends from 25° N. to 50° N. and from 180° E. to 210° E., derives its name from the extensive suite of plains that dominates the geology of the northern part of the region. With a surface area of nearly 6.5 x 10 6 km 2 (roughly two-thirds that of the United States), the quadrangle is located northwest of the Beta-Atla-Themis volcanic zone and southeast of the Atalanta Planitia lowlands, areas proposed to be the result of large scale mantle upwelling and downwelling, respectively. The region immediately south of Ganiki Planitia is dominated by Atla Regio, a major volcanic rise beneath which localized upwelling appears to be ongoing, whereas the area just to the north is dominated by the orderly system of north-trending deformation belts that characterize Vinmara Planitia. The Ganiki Planitia quadrangle thus lies at the intersection between several physiographic regions where extensive mantle flow-induced tectonic and volcanic processes are thought to have occurred. The geology of the V-14 quadrangle is characterized by a complex array of volcanic, tectonic, and impact-derived features. There are eleven impact craters with diameters from 4 to 64 km, as well as four diffuse 'splotch' features interpreted to be the product of near-surface bolide explosions. Tectonic activity has produced heavily deformed tesserae, belts of complex deformation and rifts as well as a distributed system of fractures and wrinkle ridges. Volcanic activity has produced extensive regional plains deposits, and in the northwest corner of the quadrangle these plains host the initial (or terminal) 700 km of the Baltis Vallis canali, an enigmatic volcanic feature with a net length of ~7,000 km that is the longest channel on Venus. Major volcanic centers in V-14 include eight large volcanoes and eight coronae; all but one of these sixteen features was noted during a previous global survey. The V-14 quadrangle contains an abundance of minor volcanic features including individual shield volcanoes and localized fissure eruptions as well as many small annular structures and domes, which often serve as the source for local lava flows. The topographic and geophysical characteristics of the Ganiki Planitia quadrangle are less complex than the surface geology, but they yield equally valuable information about the region’s formation and evolution. Referenced to the mean planetary radius of 6051.84 km, the average elevation in the quadrangle is -0.26±0.86 km (2σ) with a full range of -2.58 km to 1.85 km. The highest 2.5 percent of elevations in the quadrangle (above 0.60 km) are associated primarily with the major tessera blocks and the peaks of a few volcanic edifices, whereas the lowest 2.5 percent (below -1.12 km) mostly occur within corona interiors and in the northwest corner of the quadrangle where the plains begin to merge into the Atalanta Planitia lowlands. At the ~4.6 km/pixel scale of the topography data, the mean point-to-point topographic slope is 0.63° and topographic slopes greater than 2° cover less than 5 percent of the region. Overall, the topography of the Ganiki Planitia quadrangle can be characterized as flat, low lying, and nearly devoid of abrupt topographic variation. Complementing this gentle topography, the geoid anomaly has a generally linear gradient that decreases north-northwest from a high of ~20 m at the southern edge of the quadrangle (the northern border of the Atla Regio anomaly) to a low of -30 to -40 m along the northern edge (Konopliv and others, 1999). The vertical component of the gravity anomaly varies from ~50 mGal to -40 mGal, and integrated analysis of the gravity and topography data indicates that dynamically supported regions and areas of thickened crust are both present within the quadrangle. Because the Ganiki Planitia quadrangle is a plains-dominated lowland area that lies between several major physiographic provinces (namely, Atla Regio, Atalanta Planitia, and Vinmara Planitia), a geologic map of the region may yield insight into a wide array of important problems in Venusian geology. The current mapping effort and analysis complements previous efforts to characterize aspects of the region’s geology, for example stratigraphy near parabolic halo crater sites, volcanic plains emplacement, wrinkle ridges, volcanic feature distribution, volcano deformation, coronae characteristics, lithospheric flexure, and various features along a 30±7.58° N. geotraverse. Our current research focuses on addressing four specific questions. Has the dominant style of volcanic expression within the quadrangle varied in a systematic fashion over time? Does the tectonic deformation within the quadrangle record significant regional patterns that vary spatially or temporally, and if so what are the scales, orientations and sources of the stress fields driving this deformation? If mantle upwelling and downwelling have played a significant role in the formation of Atla Regio and Atalanta Planitia as has been proposed, does the geology of Ganiki Planitia record evidence of northwest-directed lateral mantle flow connecting the two sites? Finally, can integration of the tectonic and volcanic histories preserved within the quadrangle help constrain competing resurfacing models for Venus?

Scientific Investigations Map↗

USGS2011

Predominant bacteria isolated from moribund Fusconaia ebena ebonyshells experiencing die-offs in Pickwick Reservoir, Tennessee River, Alabama

Mussel die-offs have been noted in recent years in Pickwick Reservoir, Tennessee River, Alabama. The primary affected species was Fusconaia ebena, but also affected to lesser degrees were Ellipsaria lineolata, Quadrula pustulosa, and Quadrula quadrula. These events were characterized by large numbers of empty shells—fresh-dead and live individuals that were presumed to be diseased because of weak and slow valve closure responses to external stimuli. Anecdotal evidence suggested the possible involvement of an etiological agent, such as a bacterial pathogen. The die-offs have occurred in Pickwick Reservoir (river miles 236–256) in sequential years during the past approximately 10 y. These timeframes have coincided with reduced basin inflows and warmer water temperatures. The majority of the moribund and freshly dead F. ebena were females possibly predisposed to infection and disease from ongoing reproductive activity. Affected and healthy-cohort mussels were collected to characterize the bacterial flora prior to, during, and after a July 2006 die-off, and during a subsequent die-off in September 2008. The numbers of total bacteria from both the 2006 and 2008 die-offs were significantly greater from the diseased specimens. For example, from the September 2008 die-off, the mean count from diseased F. ebena soft tissues was 9.75 × 10 6 cfu/g, which was more than 100 times greater (P = 0.025) than the mean from healthy cohorts (6.74 × 10 4 cfu/g). The predominant bacteria from affected F. ebena from July 2006 were Hafnia alvei and Aeromonas sobria, whereas from September 2008 the predominant bacteria were Enterobacter spp., Aeromonas schubertii, Aeromonas veronii bv. veronii, and Aeromonas veronii bv. sobria.

Alabama↗

USGS2009

Impacts of stormwater runoff in the Southern California Bight: Relationships among plume constituents

The effects from two winter rain storms on the coastal ocean of the Southern California Bight were examined as part of the Bight '03 program during February 2004 and February-March 2005. The impacts of stormwater from fecal indicator bacteria, water column toxicity, and nutrients were evaluated for five major river discharges: the Santa Clara River, Ballona Creek, the San Pedro Shelf (including the Los Angeles, San Gabriel, and Santa Ana Rivers), the San Diego River, and the Tijuana River. Exceedances of bacterial standards were observed in most of the systems. However, the areas of impact were generally spatially limited, and contaminant concentrations decreased below California Ocean Plan standards typically within 2-3 days. The largest bacterial concentrations occurred in the Tijuana River system where exceedances of fecal indicator bacteria were noted well away from the river mouth. Maximum nitrate concentrations (~40 ??M) occurred in the San Pedro Shelf region near the mouth of the Los Angeles River. Based on the results of general linear models, individual sources of stormwater differ in both nutrient concentrations and the concentration and composition of fecal indicator bacteria. While nutrients appeared to decrease in plume waters due to simple mixing and dilution, the concentration of fecal indicator bacteria in plumes depends on more than loading and dilution rates. The relationships between contaminants (nutrients and fecal indicator bacteria) and plume indicators (salinity and total suspended solids) were not strong indicating the presence of other potentially important sources and/or sinks of both nutrients and fecal indicator bacteria. California Ocean Plan standards were often exceeded in waters containing greater than 10% stormwater (<28-30 salinity range). The median concentration dropped below the standard in the 32-33 salinity range (1-4% stormwater) for total coliforms and Enterococcus spp. and in the 28-30 salinity range (10-16% stormwater) for fecal coliforms. Nutrients showed a similar pattern with the highest median concentrations in water with greater than 10% stormwater. Relationships between colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and salinity and between total suspended solids and beam attenuation indicate that readily measurable, optically active variables can be used as proxies to provide at least a qualitative, if not quantitative, evaluation of the distribution of the dissolved, as well as the particulate, components of stormwater plumes. In this context, both CDOM absorption and the beam attenuation coefficient can be derived from satellite ocean color measurements of inherent optical properties suggesting that remote sensing of ocean color should be useful in mapping the spatial areas and durations of impacts from these contaminants. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

Continental Shelf Research↗

USGS2011

Summary of November 2010 meeting to evaluate turbidite data for constraining the recurrence parameters of great Cascadia earthquakes for the update of national seismic hazard maps

This report summarizes a meeting of geologists, marine sedimentologists, geophysicists, and seismologists that was held on November 18–19, 2010 at Oregon State University in Corvallis, Oregon. The overall goal of the meeting was to evaluate observations of turbidite deposits to provide constraints on the recurrence time and rupture extent of great Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) earthquakes for the next update of the U.S. national seismic hazard maps (NSHM). The meeting was convened at Oregon State University because this is the major center for collecting and evaluating turbidite evidence of great Cascadia earthquakes by Chris Goldfinger and his colleagues. We especially wanted the participants to see some of the numerous deep sea cores this group has collected that contain the turbidite deposits. Great earthquakes on the CSZ pose a major tsunami, ground-shaking, and ground-failure hazard to the Pacific Northwest. Figure 1 shows a map of the Pacific Northwest with a model for the rupture zone of a moment magnitude M w 9.0 earthquake on the CSZ and the ground shaking intensity (in ShakeMap format) expected from such an earthquake, based on empirical ground-motion prediction equations. The damaging effects of such an earthquake would occur over a wide swath of the Pacific Northwest and an accompanying tsunami would likely cause devastation along the Pacifc Northwest coast and possibly cause damage and loss of life in other areas of the Pacific. A magnitude 8 earthquake on the CSZ would cause damaging ground shaking and ground failure over a substantial area and could also generate a destructive tsunami. The recent tragic occurrence of the 2011 M w 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake highlights the importance of having accurate estimates of the recurrence times and magnitudes of great earthquakes on subduction zones. For the U.S. national seismic hazard maps, estimating the hazard from the Cascadia subduction zone has been based on coastal paleoseismic evidence of great earthquakes over the past 5,000 years. The instrumental catalog of earthquakes is of little use for constraining the hazard of the CSZ, because there are virtually no recorded earthquakes on most of the plate interface of the CSZ. There are no historical accounts in the past 150 years of large earthquakes on most of the CSZ. Until about 20 years ago, some interpreted this lack of recent and historical earthquakes as an indicator that the subduction zone was slipping aseismically and could not produce a great earthquake. The work of Brian Atwater and others, in the late 1980s and the 1990s (Atwater, 1987, 1992; Atwater and others, 1995; Nelson and others, 1996; Clague, 1997; Atwater and Hemphill-Haley, 1997; Atwater and others, 2004) demonstrated that submerged forests, buried soils, tsunami deposits, and liquefaction along and near the coast were compelling evidence of repeated great Cascadia earthquakes over at least the past 5,000 years. Atwater and Hemphill-Haley (1997) concluded from paleoseismic evidence at Willapa Bay, Washington, that great earthquakes ruptured the CSZ with an average recurrence time of about 500 years. The date of the last great CSZ earthquake, January 26, 1700, was established from historical records of the so-called orphan tsunami in Japan that is inferred to have been produced by this earthquake (Satake and others, 1996, 2003; Atwater and others, 2005) and is consistent with tree-ring data from drowned forests in Washington and Oregon. From modeling the observations of the tsunami, Satake and others (2003) estimated a moment magnitude of about 9.0 for this earthquake. Many other paleoseismic sites have been investigated along the Pacific Northwest coast from Vancouver Island to northern California and show evidence of great CSZ earthquakes. Nelson and others (2006) summarized the dates found from these studies and proposed correlations between sites indicating the extent of rupture for individual events. Dating of inferred tsunami deposits in Bradley Lake, Oregon by Kelsey and others (2005), as well as tsunami and subsidence evidence from Six Rivers, Oregon (Kelsey and others, 2002) and Coquille River (Witter and others, 2003), indicates that there were probably M w 8 ruptures in the southern portion of the CSZ in addition to the M w 9 events that rupture the whole length of the CSZ (Nelson and others, 2006). A parallel development over the past 20 years or more is the use of deep-sea turbidite deposits for identifying and dating great Cascadia earthquakes over the past 10,000 years (Adams, 1990; Goldfinger and others, 2003, 2008, in press; Goldfinger, 2011). Turbidites are sediment deposits in the deep ocean from turbidity currents, which are energetic flows of sediment and water along the continental shelf and slope. Adams (1990), using the counts of turbidites in deep-sea cores off the coast of Oregon and Washington collected and analyzed by Griggs (1969) and Griggs and others (1969), proposed that these turbidites were caused by the shaking of great Cascadia earthquakes. Part of his reasoning was that the number (13) of turbidite deposits that occurred since deposition of the Mazama Ash 7,000 years ago gave a recurrence time of about 500 years, consistent with that derived from the coastal submergence data. Adams (1990) also proposed the “confluence test” which evaluates the number of turbidites for submarine channels that form a confluence. He reported that the number of turbidites in the single downstream channel equaled the number in each of the tributary channels. He reasoned that this indicated that the turbidites in each tributary were simultaneously triggered and were, therefore, caused by a common forcing agent. He concluded that shaking from extended ruptures of great Cascadia earthquakes was the most likely cause of these turbidites. Based on the paleoseismic evidence of past great earthquakes, the hazard from the Cascadia subduction zone was included in the 1996 U.S. NSHM (Frankel and others, 1996), which were the basis for seismic provisions in the 2000 International Building Code. These hazard maps used the paleoseismic studies to constrain the recurrence rate of great CSZ earthquakes. Goldfinger and his colleagues have since collected many more deep ocean cores and done extensive analysis on the turbidite deposits that they identified in the cores (Goldfinger and others, 2003, 2008, in press; Goldfinger, 2011). Using their dating of the sediments and correlation of features in the logs of density and magnetic susceptibility between cores, they developed a detailed chronology of great earthquakes along the CSZ for the past 10,000 years (Goldfinger and others, in press). These correlations consist of attempting to match the peaks and valleys in logs of density and magnetic susceptibility between cores separated, in some cases, by hundreds of kilometers. Based on this work, Goldfinger and others (2003, 2008, in press) proposed that the turbidite evidence indicated the occurrence of great earthquakes (M w 8) that only ruptured the southern portion of the CSZ, as well as earthquakes with about M w 9 that ruptured the entire length of the CSZ. For the southernmost portion of the CSZ, Goldfinger and others (in press) proposed a recurrence time of M w 8 or larger earthquakes of about 230 years. This proposed recurrence time was shorter than the 500 year time that was incorporated in one scenario in the NSHM’s. It is important to note that the hazard maps of 1996 and later also included a scenario or set of scenarios with a shorter recurrence time for M w 8 earthquakes, using rupture zones that are distributed along the length of the CSZ (Frankel and others, 1996; Petersen and others, 2008). Originally, this scenario was meant to correspond to the idea that some of the 500-year averaged ruptures seen in the paleoseismic evidence could have been a series of M w 8 earthquakes that occurred over a short period of time (a few decades), rather than M w 9 earthquakes. Figure 2 shows the logic tree for the CSZ used in the 2008 NSHM’s (Petersen and others, 2008). This logic tree includes whole CSZ rupture earthquakes (M w 8.8–9.2) and partial CSZ rupture earthquakes (M w 8.0–8.7). In this latest version of the NSHM’s, the effective recurrence time of earthquakes on the CSZ with moment magnitudes greater than or equal to 8.0 over the various models is about 270 years (Petersen and others, 2008). This recurrence time applies to the entire CSZ, so that the hazard from great earthquakes was approximately equal along the whole zone, although the hazard estimates taper on the northern and southern ends of the CSZ, because of the way rupture zones of M w 8 earthquakes were distributed along the strike of the CSZ. The NSHM will be updated in 2013, as part of the standard update cycle that corresponds to the update cycle of the national model building codes that are based on the seismic hazard maps. A meeting was necessary to assemble a wide group of experts to hear Dr. Goldfinger explain his methodology for dating and correlating the turbidites and for developing the earthquake chronology. The overall goal of the workshop was to evaluate observations of turbidite deposits to provide constraints on the recurrence times and rupture extents of great Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes for the next update of the NSHM. Before the meeting, participants were supplied with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper of Goldfinger and others (in press), as well as material from Brian Atwater and Alan Nelson. The agenda of the meeting was developed by Art Frankel, with assistance from Chris Goldfinger, Brian Atwater, Alan Nelson, Mark Petersen, and Craig Weaver. The meeting was hosted by Chris Goldfinger of Oregon State University. We stress that it is difficult to evaluate in a two-day meeting the large amount of work that Goldfinger and his colleagues have done over the past 15 years or more. This meeting is the first step in a process that develops the inputs to the update of the national maps. The conclusions of this workshop will be discussed and possibly modified at the regional Pacific Northwest workshop for the hazard maps to be held in early 2012. Vetting new research results using informed expert opinion is an integral part of updating the national maps and does not reflect on the veracity of these results.

Cascadia↗

USGS2015

Real-time validation of the Dst Predictor model

The Dst Predictor model, which has been running real-time in the Space Weather Analysis and Forecast System (SWAFS), provides 1-hour and 4-hour forecasts of the Dst index. This is useful for awareness of impending geomagnetic activity, as well as driving other real-time models that use Dst as an input. In this report, we examine the performance of this forecast model in detail. When validating indices it should be noted that performance is only with respect to a reference index as they are derived quantities assumed to reﬂect a state of the magnetosphere that cannot be directly measured. In this case U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Deﬁnitive Dst is the reference index (Section 3). Whether or not the model better reﬂects the actual activity level is nearly impossible to discern and is outside the scope of this report. We evaluate the performance of the model by computing continuous predictant skill scores against USGS Deﬁnitive Dst values as “observations” (Section 4.2). The two sets of data are not well-correlated for both 1-hour and 4-hour forecasts. The Dst Predictor Prediction Efﬁciency for both the 1- and 4-hour forecasts suggests poor performance versus the climatological mean. However, the skill score against a nowcast persistence model is positive, suggesting value added by the Dst Predictor model. We further examine statistics for storm times (Section 4.3) with similar results: nowcast persistence performs worse than Dst Predictor. Dst Predictor is superior to the nowcast persistence model for the metric used in this study. We recommend continued use of the DstPredictor model for 1-and4-hour Dst predictions along with active study of other Dst forecast models that do not rely on nowcast inputs (Section 6). The lack of certiﬁed requirements makes further recommendations difﬁcult. A study of how the error in Dst translates to error in models and a better understanding of operational needs for magnetic storm warning are needed to determine such requirements. Nowcast persistence is often hard to beat for short term forecasts and speciﬁcation and Dst Predictor clearly performs well against that standard (with 1-hour and 4-hour skill-scores of 0.233 and 0.485 respectively), although poor in absolute terms (with1-hourand4-hour prediction efﬁciencies of-64.6and-43.1, respectively).

Air Force Research Laboratory Technical Report↗

USGS2012

Order and diversity in the modes of circum-Pacific earthquake recurrence

Recurrence characteristics of great circum-Pacific earthquakes and determinations of spatial distribution of seismic moment release are surveyed in order to delineate their general features and relate earthquake slip distribution to models of recurrent rupture. As noted by others, the pattern of moment release is typically very irregular, with strong concentrations in a few isolated regions of a much larger aftershock zone. Despite this complexity, rupture nucleation is notably systematic, with mainshock epicenter showing a strong tendency to locate in or immediately adjacent to identified regions of high moment release. This generalization suggests that earthquake recurrence is more likely to be controlled by maximum rather than average fault slip. Well-documented case histories from twelve plate boundary regions demonstrate that seismic strain release tends to be temporally well-ordered, while source dimensions, slip, and cumulative moment release vary considerably from cycle to cycle. On none of the segments studied do earthquakes consistently recur in nearly identical events. Instead, individual great earthquakes differ significantly from cycle to cycle or rerupture takes place in a sequence of two or more smaller events. Despite these differences the duration of the seismic cycle is approximately uniform. Furthermore, when strain release occurs in a sequence of large earthquakes, these events take place towards the end of the cycle and occur with increasing rupture length and magnitude. These ordered and irregular features of earthquake recurrence argue for the existence of corresponding elements on plate boundary faults. The ordered characteristics are identified with zones of concentrated moment release that slip comparable amounts in each cycle and have high shear strength. The irregular features are associated with intervening weaker regions that move in response to the stress concentration of dynamic rupture and slip by differing amounts in each event. Although these mechanistic associations are indirect and tentative, the features of recurrent behavior documented here have implications for long-term earthquake hazard assessment that are not dependent on the models proposed to explain them. Chief among these are the cycle-to-cycle differences among gap-filling events and the absence of shocks that fill major slip-deficient regions early in the seismic cycle.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2020

Documentation of Surface Fault Rupture and Ground‐Deformation Features Produced by the 4 and 5 July 2019 Mw 6.4 and Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

The M w "> M w Mw 6.4 and M w "> M w Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence occurred on 4 and 5 July 2019 within the eastern California shear zone of southern California. Both events produced extensive surface faulting and ground deformation within Indian Wells Valley and Searles Valley. In the weeks following the earthquakes, more than six dozen scientists from government, academia, and the private sector carefully documented the surface faulting and ground‐deformation features. As of December 2019, we have compiled a total of more than 6000 ground observations; approximately 1500 of these simply note the presence or absence of fault rupture or ground failure, but the remainder include detailed descriptions and other documentation, including tens of thousands of photographs. More than 1100 of these observations also include quantitative field measurements of displacement sense and magnitude. These field observations were supplemented by mapping of fault rupture and ground‐deformation features directly in the field as well as by interpreting the location and extent of surface faulting and ground deformation from optical imagery and geodetic image products. We identified greater than 68 km of fault rupture produced by both earthquakes as well as numerous sites of ground deformation resulting from liquefaction or slope failure. These observations comprise a dataset that is fundamental to understanding the processes that controlled this earthquake sequence and for improving earthquake hazard estimates in the region. This article documents the types of data collected during postearthquake field investigations, the compilation effort, and the digital data products resulting from these efforts.

California↗

USGS2022

Multi-decadal sandbar response to flow management downstream from a large dam—The Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River in Marble and Grand Canyons, Arizona

Sandbars are an important resource in the Colorado River corridor in Marble and Grand Canyons, Arizona, downstream from Glen Canyon Dam. Sandbars provide aquatic and riparian habitat and are used as campsites by river runners and hikers. The study area is the Colorado River between Glen Canyon Dam and Diamond Creek, which is about 388 kilometers (241 miles) downstream from the dam. Closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963 and subsequent flow regulation reduced the sediment supply, limited the magnitude and frequency of floods, and increased the magnitude of baseflows. The result has been widespread erosion of sandbars and expansion of native and non-native vegetation on previously bare sand deposits in this debris-fan dominated canyon river. This study reports on the on-going long-term measurement program of Northern Arizona University, initiated in 1990 with the Bureau of Reclamation, and now also with the U.S. Geological Survey’s Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center. We report on all sandbar measurements made between 1990 and 2020 to demonstrate the multi-decadal response of the sandbar monitoring sites resulting from flow regulation by Glen Canyon Dam. Because only one study site is located in Glen Canyon, the 25 kilometer (15.5 miles) reach just below Glen Canyon Dam, analyses of sandbar response are only made for the next two canyon segments in the down-river direction, Marble Canyon (388 kilometers [99 miles]) and Grand Canyon (265 kilometers [165 miles]), respectively, where the majority of study sites are located. We show that a majority of monitoring sites increased in volume during a period of frequent controlled floods intended to rebuild sandbars. In the period from 2004 to 2020, which included seven controlled floods, a median discharge of 350 cubic meters per second (m 3 /s), and greater than average tributary sand inputs in more than half of the years, net deposition occurred at 86 percent of long-term monitoring sites. This period was preceded by a period of net erosion (1990–2003) when there was one controlled flood greater than the nominal powerplant capacity of 940 m 3 /s. During this period the median discharge from Glen Canyon Dam was 376 m 3 /s and greater than average sand inputs occurred in only 36 percent of those years. At the end of the monitoring period in 2020, 61 percent of the study sites measured since 1990 underwent a net increase in sand volume. For the entire 31-year period, these trends were statistically significant for all six sandbar types studied, indicating that increased frequency of controlled flooding maintained sandbar volume at the majority of sites monitored. These floods, also referred to as high-flow experiments (HFEs), are part of a decision-making protocol approved in 2012 for coordinating dam releases timed to occur following large sand inputs to the Colorado River by a major tributary. These findings are based on digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from approximately (~)1,800 repeat surveys of sandbar and channel bed topography made annually, or more frequently, at the 45 long-term monitoring sites, of which 31 have been monitored since 1990 and 14 were added between 1990 and 2008. This large collection of monitoring sites comprises just 7 to 9 percent of all sandbars in Marble and Grand Canyons, respectively. Nevertheless, when compared with measurements of a larger sample, these sites provide consistent characterization of average sandbar response, despite the local variability in channel and debris fan geometry. We use sand volume and normalized sand volume for tracking geomorphic changes of sandbars, because these metrics are sensitive to both changes in sandbar area and sandbar elevation. Based on checkpoint comparisons and repeat measurements, DEM elevation uncertainty was determined to be ±0.05 meter (m) and this uncertainty was used in a spatially uniform estimate of volume uncertainty. We find that the magnitudes of the topographic changes were substantially greater than the measurement uncertainty. Sandbars of similar type throughout both Marble and Grand Canyons have responded similarly during the period of the HFE protocol, despite variations in sand supply and longitudinal extent of those inputs. It should be noted that tributary-supplied sand to Glen Canyon is negligible, much of the riverbed is now armored with cobbles, and the channel bed degradation is irreversible in the current flow and sediment supply regime. Because all these HFEs have been conducted during periods of sediment enrichment, other factors such as vegetation and geomorphic setting are likely the primary causes of variation among the monitoring sites. A larger percentage of the sandbar population, predominantly located in narrow reaches where stage changes are greater, is composed of sandbar types that remain dynamic and consistently aggrade during HFEs. In contrast, wide reaches of the river corridor where stage change is not as great are characterized by sandbars that have been stabilized by vegetation and progressive aggradation during floods. In the former case, a majority of sandbars are likely to remain dynamic, requiring continued use of HFEs to achieve desired management goals. In the latter case, HFEs can do no better than replace the sediment eroded during normal dam operation between high-flow events, as they become less effective because of a diminishing amount of accommodation space available for deposition. Long-term sandbar trajectory and the continued effectiveness of HFEs are related to the differential vegetation establishment at each bar type. Future sandbar monitoring may need to consider the effects of riparian vegetation removal.

Arizona↗

USGS2021

A reassessment of Chao2 estimates for population monitoring of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

The Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee (YES) asked the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) to re-assess a technique used in annual population estimation and trend monitoring of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). This technique is referred to as the Chao2 approach and estimates the number of females with cubs-of-the-year (hereafter, females with cubs) and, in association with other demographic data, is used by the IGBST to produce annual population estimates. Females with cubs are an easily recognizable population segment, and trends for this reproductive segment of the population are assumed to be representative of trend for the entire population. The overarching objective of the analyses presented in this report was to provide a more accurate representation of the GYE grizzly bear population using the current methodologies in place. Specifically, we addressed two limitations of the current Chao2 approach: 1) underestimation bias associated with a distance criterion used to differentiate annual sightings of females with cubs into unique individuals and 2) limitations of the model-averaging approach to effectively distinguish among potential future population trajectories (decline, stability, and growth). The first issue addressed in this report is the underestimation bias associated with the rule set that Knight et al. (1995) developed to differentiate sightings of females with cubs into unique individuals (i.e., unique family groups). The rule set was originally designed to be conservative by reducing the risk of identifying more females with cubs than actually existed, primarily through use of a distance criterion of 30 km to separate sightings of unique females. This approach resulted in an underestimation bias, and previous research demonstrated that this bias increases with increasing number of females with cubs. Using location data from radio-marked females with cubs, we evaluated alternative distance criteria by simulating scenarios with varying numbers of true females with cubs and sightings. Findings from these analyses demonstrate that bias in estimates of females with cubs can be substantially reduced by changing the 30-km distance criterion in the rule set to 16 km, which produced relatively unbiased estimates. Findings also indicate, however, the importance of adaptability with regard to the distance criteria because of the complex relationships and biases among the various parameters involved in estimation of unique females with cubs. The total number of annual sightings and the true number of females with cubs play particularly important roles. Whereas these analyses remind us that there is no perfect approach to estimating the number of females with cubs from sightings under various scenarios, they provide us with new tools to determine when and how to adapt the monitoring program. The second issue we were tasked to investigate was the potential for improvement of the technique referred to as model-averaging, which serves to smooth relatively high variation in annual estimates. This technique was chosen by YES as the basis for monitoring the Yellowstone grizzly bear population, as described in the 2016 Conservation Strategy. This choice was made in part because the technique has been well documented and population estimates derived from counts of females with cubs are conservative. Using simulations of population trends, we demonstrate why the model-averaging technique currently used cannot distinguish between plausible future trend scenarios. As a suitable alternative to model averaging, we propose the use of generalized additive models (GAMs). Using a suite of simulated trend dynamics relevant to management, we demonstrate GAM performance for tracking trends in females with cubs within the context of the annual monitoring program. We demonstrate the ability to not only document directional changes in population trend but also patterns of stabilization or resiliency after such changes. Furthermore, the proposed monitoring framework provides objective measures useful for early detection of directional changes in trend. The new framework is flexible, allowing retrospective analysis of Chao2-based estimates and future applications to time series of other population metrics, such as vital rates. The aforementioned updates provide us with new tools to determine when and how to adapt the monitoring program. Within the context of current monitoring protocols and effort, and considering the full suite of simulations presented in this report and previous studies, the IGBST plans to incorporate the following changes to the population monitoring protocol: 1) modify the distance criterion, starting with 16 km under current sampling conditions and 2) revise the population monitoring framework using GAMs as the basis for smoothing of annual estimates and detecting trends and changes in trend. Implementation of the 16-km distance criterion combined with use of GAM techniques would affect some of the population metrics (e.g., annual population size and uncertainty, population trend, mortality rates) used to inform management responses. A primary consideration is that the 16-km distance criterion results in total population estimates derived from the Chao2 estimates that are greater than those we have reported in the past. This increase is due to a change in the implementation of the technique and more accurately represents the number of females with cubs in the GYE grizzly bear population. Additionally, interpretation of retrospective trend patterns may change due to the combination of a different distance criterion and enhanced trend monitoring based on the GAM approach we present here. Implementation will require relatively minor changes in the monitoring protocols described in Appendices B and C of the 2016 Conservation Strategy. Finally, we note that the IGBST has ongoing investigations into the merits of an Integrated Population Model (IPM), for which annual Chao2-based estimates are important input data. The IGBST plans to continue those investigations using the 16-km distance criterion to derive Chao2 estimates.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗