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At least 397 records · Page 22Linked to original sources

Climate change hotspots and implications for the global subsea telecommunications network

A global network of subsea telecommunications cables underpins our daily lives, enabling >95% of global digital data transfer, $trillions/day in financial trading, and providing critical communications links, particularly to remote, low-income countries. Despite their importance, subsea cables and their landing stations are vulnerable to damage by natural hazards, including storm surges, waves, cyclones, earthquakes, floods, volcanic eruptions , submarine landslides and ice scour. However, the likelihood or recurrence interval of many of these types of events will likely change under future projected climate change scenarios, compounded by sea-level rise; potentially increasing hazard severity, creating previously unanticipated hazards, or hazards may shift to new locations during the 20–30-year operational life of cable systems. To date, no study has assessed the wide-reaching impacts of future climate change on subsea cables and landing stations on a global scale. Here, for the first time we synthesize the current evidence base, based on published peer-reviewed datasets, to fill this crucial knowledge gap, specifically to assess how and where future climate change is likely to impact subsea cables and their shore-based infrastructure. We find that ocean conditions are highly likely to change on a global basis as a result of climate change, but the feedbacks and links between climate change, natural processes and human activities are often complicated, resulting in a high degree of geographic variability. We identify climate change ‘hotspots’ (regions and locations likely to experience the greatest impacts) but find that not all areas will be affected in the same manner, nor synchronously by the same processes. We conclude that cable routes should carefully consider locally-variable drivers of hazard frequency and magnitude. Consideration should be given both to instantaneous events (e.g. landslides, tropical cyclones) as well as longer-term, sustained impacts (e.g. seabed currents that circulate even in deep water). Multiple factors can combine to increase the risk posed to subsea cables, hence a holistic approach is essential to assess the compounded effects of both natural processes and human activities in the future.

Earth Science Reviews↗

Sensitivity analysis of a dynamic vegetation-sediment transport model using equadratures: Exploring inorganic accretion on a marsh platform

Salt marsh systems require a net import of inorganic sediment to maintain their structure in response to sea‐level rise. Marshes are affected by physical processes including tides, waves, sediment transport, and the influence of vegetation, and these processes interact in complex ways leading to sediment accretion or erosion. We implement a 3‐D hydrodynamic sediment transport model in an idealized marsh‐bay complex with a gently sloping edge, and use it as a laboratory to explore the processes leading to bed elevation change through the bay‐marsh continuum. We use the novel equadratures method for efficient sensitivity analysis to test the roles of wave, vegetation, and sediment parameters on wave dissipation, bed shear stress, sediment fluxes, and deposition and erosion across a transect spanning bay shallows to the marsh. Within the explored bounds of parameter uncertainty, significant wave height ( H sig ), settling velocity ( w s ), and critical shear stress (τ crit ) most strongly affect accretion on the marsh platform. Deposition is affected more by parameter‐parameter interactions, that is, both τ crit and w s or both H sig and w s , than by a single parameter varying alone. The sediment that accretes on the marsh platform originates beyond the marsh edge, indicating that the dynamics of the adjacent mudflat are important for predicting the fate of the marsh. Applying efficient sensitivity analysis techniques can empower process‐based models to test more parameters, larger ranges, and longer timeframes, enabling future predictions of marsh response to sea‐level rise based on physical processes

California↗

Ten ways remote sensing can contribute to conservation

In an effort to increase conservation effectiveness through the use of Earth observation technologies, a group of remote sensing scientists affiliated with government and academic institutions and conservation organizations identified 10 questions in conservation for which the potential to be answered would be greatly increased by use of remotely sensed data and analyses of those data. Our goals were to increase conservation practitioners’ use of remote sensing to support their work, increase collaboration between the conservation science and remote sensing communities, identify and develop new and innovative uses of remote sensing for advancing conservation science, provide guidance to space agencies on how future satellite missions can support conservation science, and generate support from the public and private sector in the use of remote sensing data to address the 10 conservation questions. We identified a broad initial list of questions on the basis of an email chain-referral survey. We then used a workshop-based iterative and collaborative approach to whittle the list down to these final questions (which represent 10 major themes in conservation): How can global Earth observation data be used to model species distributions and abundances? How can remote sensing improve the understanding of animal movements? How can remotely sensed ecosystem variables be used to understand, monitor, and predict ecosystem response and resilience to multiple stressors? How can remote sensing be used to monitor the effects of climate on ecosystems? How can near real-time ecosystem monitoring catalyze threat reduction, governance and regulation compliance, and resource management decisions? How can remote sensing inform configuration of protected area networks at spatial extents relevant to populations of target species and ecosystem services? How can remote sensing-derived products be used to value and monitor changes in ecosystem services? How can remote sensing be used to monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of conservation efforts? How does the expansion and intensification of agriculture and aquaculture alter ecosystems and the services they provide? How can remote sensing be used to determine the degree to which ecosystems are being disturbed or degraded and the effects of these changes on species and ecosystem functions?

Conservation Biology↗

Fluviomorphic trajectories for dryland ephemeral stream channels following extreme flash floods

Ephemeral alluvial streams pose globally significant flood hazards to human habitation in drylands, but sparse data for these regions limit understanding of the character and impacts of extreme flooding. In this study, we document decadal changes in dryland ephemeral channel patterns at two sites in the lower Colorado River Basin (southwestern United States) that were ravaged by extraordinary flash floods in the 1970s: Bronco Creek, Arizona (1971), and Eldorado Canyon, Nevada (1974). We refer to these two floods as ‘fluviomorphic erasure events’, because they produced blank slates for the channels that were gradually moulded by more frequent but much smaller flood events. We studied georectified aerial photos that span ~60 years at each site to show that both study sites recovered to their pre-flood condition after ~25 years. We employ channel network metrics: stream-link area (SLA), geometric braiding index and junction-node density. Each metric decreased during the short-duration extreme flood erasure events. Subsequently, a fluviomorphic trajectory at a decadal tempo returned the channels to pre-flood values. The SLA decreased at rates of 3.6%–4.1% per year in the decade following the floods. The extreme flood events decreased the pre-flood geometric braiding index at the two sites by 56%–68%, and it took 15–24 years for this index to recover to pre-flood values. In contrast, it took 30–35 years for the channels to recover to a uniform pre-flood channel form, as indicated by the spatial distribution of bars and junction nodes. Our results document baseline examples of ephemeral stream channel evolution trajectories, as future climatic change will likely accelerate increases in the magnitudes and frequencies of extreme floods and geomorphic erasure events.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗

Martian paleolakes and waterways: Exobiological implications

The problems of how warm and wet Mars once was and when climate transitions may have occurred are not well understood. Mars may have had an early environment similar to Earth's that was conductive to the ermergence of life. In addition, increasing geologic evidence indicates that water, upon which terrestrial life depends, has been present on Mars throughout its history. This evidence suggests that life could have developed not only on early Mars but also over longer periods of time in longer lasting, more clement local environments. Indications of past or present life most likely would be found in areas where liquid water existed in sufficient quantities to provide for the needs of biological systems. We suggest that paleolakes may have provided such environments. Unlike the case on Earth, this record of the origin and evolution of life has probably not been erased by extensive deformation of the Martian surface. Our work has identified eleven prospective areas where large lacustrine basins may once have existed. These areas are important for future biological, geological, and climatological investigations. ?? 1991 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Origins of Life and Evolution of the Biosphere↗

Neoproterozoic–Cambrian stratigraphic framework of the Anti-Atlas and Ouzellagh promontory (High Atlas), Morocco

In the last two decades, great progress has been made in the geochronological, chrono- and chemostratigraphic control of the Neoproterozoic and Cambrian from the Anti-Atlas Ranges and the Ouzellagh promontory (High Atlas). As a result, the Neoproterozoic is lithostratigraphically subdivided into: (i) the Lkest-Taghdout Group (broadly interpreted at c. 800–690 Ma) representative of rift-to-passive margin conditions on the northern West African craton; (ii) the Iriri (c. 760–740 Ma), Bou Azzer (c. 762–697 Ma) and Saghro (c. 760?–610 Ma) groups, the overlying Anezi, Bou Salda, Dadès and Tiddiline formations localized in fault-grabens, and the Ouarzazate Supergroup (c. 615–548 Ma), which form a succession of volcanosedimentary complexes recording the onset of the Pan-African orogeny and its aftermath; and (iii) the Taroudant (the Ediacaran–Cambrian boundary lying in the Tifnout Member of the Adoudou Formation), Tata, Feijas Internes and Tabanite groups that have recorded development of the late Ediacaran–Cambrian Atlas Rift. Recent discussions of Moroccan strata to select new global GSSPs by the International Subcommissions on Ediacaran and Cambrian Stratigraphy have raised the stratigraphic interest in this region. A revised and updated stratigraphic framework is proposed here to assist the tasks of both subcommissions and to fuel future discussions focused on different geological aspects of the Neoproterozoic–Cambrian time span.

Journal of African Earth Sciences↗

Virtual special issue of recent advances on gas hydrates scientific drilling in Alaska

Gas hydrate refers to a non-stoichiometric clathrate that forms spontaneously in the natural environment whenever sufficient quantities of gases of appropriate size (most commonly methane) interact with abundant water under specific conditions of temperature and pressure. (1,2) Such conditions occur wherever the shallow geothermal gradient has been suppressed by either deepwater or thick permafrost, allowing for relatively low temperatures to coexist with elevated pressures. The volume of gas hydrate on Earth is difficult to constrain, (3) but it is sufficient that gas hydrate is a meaningful potential component of (1) the long-term natural cycling of carbon, (2) the nearer term environmental changes in response to warming climates, (4) and (3) future energy supply systems. Since the initial recognition of gas hydrate as an abundant component in nature in the late 1960s, a series of scientific drilling expeditions conducted by both the Integrated Ocean Discovery Program (and successors) and national research and development programs in Canada, Japan, China, the United States, South Korea, and others (5) have explored the occurrence and nature of gas hydrates. In particular, the desire for expanded energy supply options to support the economic development and energy security for nations around the globe is currently motivating a broad range of laboratory and numerical simulation studies in support of an ongoing series of field-based scientific tests of the potential commercial viability of gas extraction from natural gas hydrate deposits. (6)

Journal of Energy & Fuels↗

Introduction to special section on the California-Arizona crustal transect: CACTIS, Part 3

The CACTIS (California‐Arizona Crustal Transect Interim Synthesis) workshop in May 1988 brought researchers together in Flagstaff, Arizona, to discuss the geologic evolution and crustal structure of the southern Cordillera between the San Andreas fault in southeastern California and the Colorado Plateau in Arizona [ Sass et al ., 1988]. The first set of papers resulting from the workshop appeared in the Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR) as the special CACTIS 1 section in January 1990 [ Howard et al ., 1990], and a second as CACTIS 2 in November 1990 [ Haxel et al ., 1990]. Twelve papers in this issue form part 3 of the CACTIS series. A final collection of papers will appear in the future as a joint special section with the California Consortium for Crustal Studies (CALCRUST).

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Evaluation of statistically downscaled GCM output as input for hydrological and stream temperature simulation in the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin (1961–99)

The accuracy of statistically downscaled general circulation model (GCM) simulations of daily surface climate for historical conditions (1961–99) and the implications when they are used to drive hydrologic and stream temperature models were assessed for the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River basin (ACFB). The ACFB is a 50 000 km 2 basin located in the southeastern United States. Three GCMs were statistically downscaled, using an asynchronous regional regression model (ARRM), to ⅛° grids of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperature. These ARRM-based climate datasets were used as input to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process watershed model used to simulate and evaluate the effects of various combinations of climate and land use on watershed response. The ACFB was divided into 258 hydrologic response units (HRUs) in which the components of flow (groundwater, subsurface, and surface) are computed in response to climate, land surface, and subsurface characteristics of the basin. Daily simulations of flow components from PRMS were used with the climate to simulate in-stream water temperatures using the Stream Network Temperature (SNTemp) model, a mechanistic, one-dimensional heat transport model for branched stream networks. The climate, hydrology, and stream temperature for historical conditions were evaluated by comparing model outputs produced from historical climate forcings developed from gridded station data (GSD) versus those produced from the three statistically downscaled GCMs using the ARRM methodology. The PRMS and SNTemp models were forced with the GSD and the outputs produced were treated as “truth.” This allowed for a spatial comparison by HRU of the GSD-based output with ARRM-based output. Distributional similarities between GSD- and ARRM-based model outputs were compared using the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test in combination with descriptive metrics such as the mean and variance and an evaluation of rare and sustained events. In general, precipitation and streamflow quantities were negatively biased in the downscaled GCM outputs, and results indicate that the downscaled GCM simulations consistently underestimate the largest precipitation events relative to the GSD. The KS test results indicate that ARRM-based air temperatures are similar to GSD at the daily time step for the majority of the ACFB, with perhaps subweekly averaging for stream temperature. Depending on GCM and spatial location, ARRM-based precipitation and streamflow requires averaging of up to 30 days to become similar to the GSD-based output. Evaluation of the model skill for historical conditions suggests some guidelines for use of future projections; while it seems correct to place greater confidence in evaluation metrics which perform well historically, this does not necessarily mean those metrics will accurately reflect model outputs for future climatic conditions. Results from this study indicate no “best” overall model, but the breadth of analysis can be used to give the product users an indication of the applicability of the results to address their particular problem. Since results for historical conditions indicate that model outputs can have significant biases associated with them, the range in future projections examined in terms of change relative to historical conditions for each individual GCM may be more appropriate.

Florida, Georgia↗

The utility of TerraSAR-X, TanDEM-X, and PAZ for studying global volcanic activity: Successes, challenges, and future prospects

TerraSAR-X (TSX), TanDEM-X (TDX), and PAZ Synthetic Aperture Radar data have been used at over 120 volcanoes to assess surface characteristics and change over time. We examine previous work, adding additional examples to understand where and when these data are most useful for volcanology. We focus on volcanoes as part of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Volcano Demonstrator Project. TSX/TDX/PAZ data provide a valuable means of detecting small surface changes from amplitude images and topographic changes from bistatic TSX/TDX data. For short temporal and perpendicular baselines, TDX/TSX/PAZ can also provide useful deformation data, even in presence of vegetation. No global background mission currently acquires TSX/TDX/PAZ data at volcanoes: 70 % high spatial resolution data, limiting their suitability for studying pre-eruptive unrest. Coordinated targeting by SAR constellations of priority volcanoes would provide data and insights valuable for forecasting eruptions and associated hazards.

Volcanica↗

Geology for a changing world: Summary of USGS Circular 1172: A science strategy for the Geologic Division of the U.S. Geological Survey, 2000-2010

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides the Nation with reliable and timely earth science information that is used to minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters; to manage energy, mineral, water, and biological resources; to enhance and protect the quality of life; and to contribute to wise economic development and a sustainable future. USGS Circular 1172, "Geology for a Changing World-- A Science Strategy for the Geologic Division of the U.S. Geological Survey, 2000-2010," presents a science strategy describing how the Geologic Division will carry out its share of this mission for the years 2000-2010. Acquisition of scientific knowledge through research, assessment, and insightful monitoring and the effective communication of this knowledge to planners and decisionmakers will allow the Geologic Division and its partners to assist the Nation in meeting a complex, challenging, and promising future.

Information Handout↗

Airborne hunt for faults in the Portland-Vancouver area

Geologic hazards in the Portland-Vancouver area include faults entirely hidden by river sediments, vegetation, and urban development. A recent aerial geophysical survey revealed patterns in the Earth's magnetic field that confirm the existence of a previously suspected fault running through Portland. It also indicated that this fault may pose a significant seismic threat. This discovery has enabled the residents of the populous area to better prepare for future earthquakes.

Fact Sheet↗

U.S. Geological Survey collections—Preserving the past to inform the future: Tour three federal repositories—Core Research Center, Paleontological Collection, and the NSF National Ice Core Laboratory

This 2016 Geological Society of America (GSA) Annual Meeting trip will explore the Core Research Center, Paleontological Collection, and National Science Foundation National Ice Core Laboratory—three collections of major national signifi cance managed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Since its inception in 1879, USGS has collected, preserved, and managed physical collections for scientifi c investigations of Earth’s systems. The Core Research Center is the largest federal core repository in the United States, where over 74 million meters (242 million feet) of the subsurface are represented by the collection of rock cores and well cuttings, available for use by researchers investigating resource potential, tectonics, structures, aquifers, and more. The USGS has conducted paleontological research for more than 110 years to inform geological mapping, biostratigraphy, paleoecology, paleoclimate, and other research. Most of these paleontological samples are at the Smithsonian Institution National Museum of Natural History (NMNH) and USGS Denver facilities. The USGS Denver paleontological collection includes ~1.2 million samples. Ancillary materials consisting of handwritten ledgers, index cards, fi eld reports, maps, and other information produced by USGS investigators provide profound knowledge about the specimens and associated geological systems. The USGS is working with NMNH to systematically digitize the collection to preserve and expose samples and data to research. The National Science Foundation (NSF) National Ice Core Laboratory (NICL) is the nation’s repository for preserving, archiving, and sampling meteoric ice cores collected from the world’s ice sheets, ice caps, and glaciers, mostly from Antarctica and Greenland. NICL’s primary mission is to store and curate ice cores, primarily collected during NSF-sponsored projects, for present and future sample investigations.

Colorado↗

An evaluation of the timing accuracy of global and regional seismic stations and networks

Clock accuracy is a basic parameter of any seismic station and has become increasingly important for seismology as the community seeks to refine structures and dynamic processes of the Earth. In this study, we measure the arrival time differences of moderate repeating earthquakes with magnitude 5.0–5.9 in the time range of 1991–2017 at the same seismic stations by cross‐correlating their highly similar waveforms and thereby identify potential timing errors from the outliers of the measurements. The method has very high precision of about 10 ms and shows great potential to be used for routine inspection of the timing accuracy of historical and future digital seismic data. Here, we report 5131 probable cases of timing errors from 451 global and regional stations available from the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology Data Management Center, ranging from several tens of milliseconds to over 10 s. Clock accuracy seems to be a prevailing problem in permanent stations with long‐running histories. Although most of the timing errors have already been tagged with low timing quality, there are quite a few exceptions, which call for greater attention from network operators and the seismological community. In addition, seismic studies, especially those on temporal changes of the Earth’s media from absolute arrival times, should be careful to avoid misinterpreting timing errors as temporal changes, which is indeed a problem in some previous studies of the Earth’s inner core boundary.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Hydrology: The interdisciplinary science of water

We live in a world where biophysical and social processes are tightly coupled. Hydrologic systems change in response to a variety of natural and human forces such as climate variability and change, water use and water infrastructure, and land cover change. In turn, changes in hydrologic systems impact socioeconomic, ecological, and climate systems at a number of scales, leading to a coevolution of these interlinked systems. The Harvard Water Program, Hydrosociology, Integrated Water Resources Management, Ecohydrology, Hydromorphology, and Sociohydrology were all introduced to provide distinct, interdisciplinary perspectives on water problems to address the contemporary dynamics of human interaction with the hydrosphere and the evolution of the Earth’s hydrologic systems. Each of them addresses scientific, social, and engineering challenges related to how humans influence water systems and vice versa. There are now numerous examples in the literature of how holistic approaches can provide a structure and vision of the future of hydrology. We review selected examples, which taken together, describe the type of theoretical and applied integrated hydrologic analyses and associated curricular content required to address the societal issue of water resources sustainability. We describe a modern interdisciplinary science of hydrology needed to develop an in-depth understanding of the dynamics of the connectedness between human and natural systems and to determine effective solutions to resolve the complex water problems that the world faces today. Nearly, every theoretical hydrologic model introduced previously is in need of revision to accommodate how climate, land, vegetation, and socioeconomic factors interact, change, and evolve over time.

Water Resources Research↗

Dynamic rupture modeling of the M7.2 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake: Comparison with a geodetic model

The 2010 M w 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake is the largest event recorded in the broader Southern California-Baja California region in the last 18 years. Here we try to analyze primary features of this type of event by using dynamic rupture simulations based on a multifault interface and later compare our results with space geodetic models. Our results show that starting from homogeneous prestress conditions, slip heterogeneity can be achieved as a result of variable dip angle along strike and the modulation imposed by step over segments. We also considered effects from a topographic free surface and find that although this does not produce significant first-order effects for this earthquake, even a low topographic dome such as the Cucapah range can affect the rupture front pattern and fault slip rate. Finally, we inverted available interferometric synthetic aperture radar data, using the same geometry as the dynamic rupture model, and retrieved the space geodetic slip distribution that serves to constrain the dynamic rupture models. The one to one comparison of the final fault slip pattern generated with dynamic rupture models and the space geodetic inversion show good agreement. Our results lead us to the following conclusion: in a possible multifault rupture scenario, and if we have first-order geometry constraints, dynamic rupture models can be very efficient in predicting large-scale slip heterogeneities that are important for the correct assessment of seismic hazard and the magnitude of future events. Our work contributes to understanding the complex nature of multifault systems.

California↗

Inducing in situ, nonlinear soil response applying an active source

[1] It is well known that soil sites have a profound effect on ground motion during large earthquakes. The complex structure of soil deposits and the highly nonlinear constitutive behavior of soils largely control nonlinear site response at soil sites. Measurements of nonlinear soil response under natural conditions are critical to advancing our understanding of soil behavior during earthquakes. Many factors limit the use of earthquake observations to estimate nonlinear site response such that quantitative characterization of nonlinear behavior relies almost exclusively on laboratory experiments and modeling of wave propagation. Here we introduce a new method for in situ characterization of the nonlinear behavior of a natural soil formation using measurements obtained immediately adjacent to a large vibrator source. To our knowledge, we are the first group to propose and test such an approach. Employing a large, surface vibrator as a source, we measure the nonlinear behavior of the soil by incrementally increasing the source amplitude over a range of frequencies and monitoring changes in the output spectra. We apply a homodyne algorithm for measuring spectral amplitudes, which provides robust signal-to-noise ratios at the frequencies of interest. Spectral ratios are computed between the receivers and the source as well as receiver pairs located in an array adjacent to the source, providing the means to separate source and near-source nonlinearity from pervasive nonlinearity in the soil column. We find clear evidence of nonlinearity in significant decreases in the frequency of peak spectral ratios, corresponding to material softening with amplitude, observed across the array as the source amplitude is increased. The observed peak shifts are consistent with laboratory measurements of soil nonlinearity. Our results provide constraints for future numerical modeling studies of strong ground motion during earthquakes.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

The upper mantle structure of the central Rio Grande rift region from teleseismic P and S wave travel time delays and attenuation

The lithosphere beneath a continental rift should be significantly modified due to extension. To image the lithosphere beneath the Rio Grande rift (RGR), we analyzed teleseismic travel time delays of both P and S wave arrivals and solved for the attenuation of P and S waves for four seismic experiments spanning the Rio Grande rift. Two tomographic inversions of the P wave travel time data are given: an Aki-Christofferson-Husebye (ACH) block model inversion and a downward projection inversion. The tomographic inversions reveal a NE-SW to NNE-SSW trending feature at depths of 35 to 145 km with a velocity reduction of 7 to 8% relative to mantle velocities beneath the Great Plains. This region correlates with the transition zone between the Colorado Plateau and the Rio Grande rift and is bounded on the NW by the Jemez lineament, a N52°E trending zone of late Miocene to Holocene volcanism. S wave delays plotted against P wave delays are fit with a straight line giving a slope of 3.0 ± 0.4. This correlation and the absolute velocity reduction imply that temperatures in the lithosphere are close to the solidus, consistent with, but not requiring, the presence of partial melt in the mantle beneath the Rio Grande rift. The attenuation data could imply the presence of partial melt. We compare our results with other geophysical and geologic data. We propose that any north-south trending thermal (velocity) anomaly that may have existed in the upper mantle during earlier (Oligocene to late Miocene) phases of rifting and that may have correlated with the axis of the rift has diminished with time and has been overprinted with more recent structure. The anomalously low-velocity body presently underlying the transition zone between the core of the Colorado Plateau and the rift may reflect processes resulting from the modern (Pliocene to present) regional stress field (oriented WNW-ESE), possibly heralding future extension across the Jemez lineament and transition zone.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗