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Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective

Many challenges, including climate change, face the Nation's water managers. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has provided estimates of how climate may change, but more understanding of the processes driving the changes, the sequences of the changes, and the manifestation of these global changes at different scales could be beneficial. Since the changes will likely affect fundamental drivers of the hydrological cycle, climate change may have a large impact on water resources and water resources managers. The purpose of this interagency report prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is to explore strategies to improve water management by tracking, anticipating, and responding to climate change. This report describes the existing and still needed underpinning science crucial to addressing the many impacts of climate change on water resources management.

Circular

Land subsidence

Land subsidence in the United States is inextricably linked to the development of groundwater—one of the Nation’s most valuable natural resources. More than 80 percent of the identified subsidence in the United States is a consequence of anthropogenic impact on water resources. Three processes account for most of the water-related subsidence—the compaction of aquifer systems, the drainage and subsequent oxidation of organic soils, and the collapse of subsurface cavities (sinkholes). The compaction of aquifer systems that are, at least in part, composed of unconsolidated fine-grained sediments and have undergone extensive groundwater development is the leading cause of subsidence in the United States. The withdrawal of subsurface fluids from alluvial aquifer systems has permanently lowered the elevation of more than 123,000 km2 of land and waterways in more than fifty areas in the conterminous United States—an area larger than Pennsylvania. Each of the affected aquifer systems in the fifty-four areas shown on figure 1 is comprised of a large thickness of unconsolidated deposits with a substantial aggregate thickness of fine-grained sediments. Not surprisingly, subsidence attributed to aquifer-system compaction in the United States generally is largest in magnitude in the arid and semi-arid West, where surface-water availability is limited, and groundwater is extensively used for irrigating agriculture and to support industries and growing populations. Subsidence is calculated by differencing the repeated elevation measurements derived from spirit-leveling surveys, or the repeated distance measurements between the ground and satellites or aircraft using campaign Global Positioning System (GPS), continuous GPS (CGPS), or Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) methods. The only method to directly measure aquifer-system compaction is by the use of a borehole extensometer. Aquifer-system compaction is tracked by repeated distance measurements between the extensometer element anchored at depth, and a reference point on or near the land surface. Data from co-located extensometers and CGPS stations can be combined to deduce depth intervals where aquifer-system compaction has occurred. The capability to determine the magnitudes of compaction that occur at specific depth intervals is critical for targeting mitigation measures and is important to track as pumping depths and volumes change.

Book chapter

Step increase in eastern U.S. precipitation linked to Indian Ocean warming

A step increase in annual precipitation over the eastern U.S. in the early 1970’s commenced five decades of invigorated hydroclimate, with ongoing impacts on streamflow and water resources. Despite its far-reaching impacts, the dynamical origin of this change is unknown. Here, analyses of a century of atmospheric and oceanic data trace the dynamics to changes in the Indian Ocean. Spring and fall precipitation explain more than half the annual eastern-U.S. precipitation variance over the century, and changes in fall are predominantly responsible for the step increase. The driving mechanism is emergence of a pan-Pacific atmospheric wave emanating from deep convection over the warming Indian Ocean. Documentation of this fall teleconnection draws attention to projected anthropogenic increases in tropical oceanic heat content, and their potential impacts on hydroclimate of the midlatitudes.

Geophysical Research Letters

If the creeks don't rise: the May 2010 Flood in Nashville

The aftermath, recovery, and lessons of the future following a major flood that inundated the greater Nashville area one year ago are the subjects of this article. The authors discuss what led up to the event, its impacts, and what, if anything, can be done to prevent or diminish the reoccurrence of such flooding in the future.

Tennessee

Techniques for water demand analysis and forecasting: Puerto Rico, a case study

The rapid economic growth of the Commonwealth-of Puerto Rico since 1947 has brought public pressure on Government agencies for rapid development of public water supply and waste treatment facilities. Since 1945 the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority has had the responsibility for planning, developing and operating water supply and waste treatment facilities on a municipal basis. The purpose of this study was to develop operational techniques whereby a planning agency, such as the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority, could project the temporal and spatial distribution of .future water demands. This report is part of a 2-year cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Environmental Quality Board of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, for the development of systems analysis techniques for use in water resources planning. While the Commonwealth was assisted in the development of techniques to facilitate ongoing planning, the U.S. Geological Survey attempted to gain insights in order to better interface its data collection efforts with the planning process. The report reviews the institutional structure associated with water resources planning for the Commonwealth. A brief description of alternative water demand forecasting procedures is presented and specific techniques and analyses of Puerto Rico demand data are discussed. Water demand models for a specific area of Puerto Rico are then developed. These models provide a framework for making several sets of water demand forecasts based on alternative economic and demographic assumptions. In the second part of this report, the historical impact of water resources investment on regional economic development is analyzed and related to water demand .forecasting. Conclusions and future data needs are in the last section.

Open-File Report

An environmental assessment of impacts of coal development on the water resources of the Yampa River basin, Colorado and Wyoming; Phase I work plan

Coal resources of the western United States are being developed at ever-increasing rates, causing concerns of the effects of mining and associated activities on the environment. The Yampa River basin in northwestern Colorado and south-central Wyoming is undergoing economic development of its coal, oil and gas, and uranium resources. The Yampa River basin assessment is a 21-year program of the U.S. Geological Survey. It is designed primarily to assess the availability and quality of the basin's water resources. The basin assessment also will evaluate potential environmental and selected socioeconomic impacts of energy-resource development plans proposed by mining and power companies. This report serves as a project work plan for the basin assessment's first-phase work activities. Economic development in the Yampa River basin will result in higher levels of residuals (noneconomic byproducts) being discharged into the environment. Residuals-management encompasses the technological and economic interrelationships that should be considered in order to comply with Federal and State environmental-control regulations regarding air quality, water quality, and disposal of solid wastes. The basin assessment, the first phase that is described by this report, is designed to provide Federal, State, and local decision-makers with the basic environmental information needed to formulate and to evaluate policies for the development of energy resources. The techniques applied and conclusions reached in the Yampa River basin assessment should aid similar studies of other energy-rich basins in the western United States.

Colorado, Wyoming

The use of conceptual ecological models to identify critical data and uncertainties to support numerical modeling: The northern Gulf of Mexico eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica example

Objective Increasing reliance on numerical simulation models to help inform management and restoration choices benefits from careful consideration of critical early steps in model development. Along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica fulfills important ecological and economic roles. Using the eastern oyster as an example, we draw on several recent frameworks outlining best practices for model development and application for restoration, conservation, and management. Methods We identify priority model questions, outline a conceptual ecological model (CEM) to guide numerical model development, and use this framework to identify uncertainties and research needs. Result The CEM uses a nested design, identifying explicit vital rates, processes, attributes, and outcomes for the species (oysters), population, and metapopulation (i.e., network of populations) levels in response to drivers of species, population, and metapopulation changes and changing environmental factors. Most management actions related to oyster restoration and harvest affect population attributes directly, but many coastal management actions and changes (i.e., climate change and coastal and water resource engineering) impact environmental factors that alter vital rates and attributes of oysters, populations, and metapopulations. Conclusion Investment in studies targeting individual oyster‐ and population‐level multi‐stressor responses (filtration, respiration, growth, and reproduction) and improving hydrodynamic and environmental models targeting drivers that influence metapopulation vital rates and attributes (i.e., connectivity and substrate persistence) would contribute to reducing uncertainties. Development of numerical models covering the entire oyster life cycle and connectivity of populations using hydrodynamic models of current and predicted conditions to provide key abiotic and biotic factors influencing larval movement, recruitment, and on‐reef oyster vital rates would assist in balancing the goals of conservation, restoration, and fisheries management of this foundational estuarine species.

Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamics, Management

Soil moisture partitioning between under canopy and interspace environments in shrublands of the northern Chihuahuan Desert

Soil moisture is a key link between hydrologic and ecologic processes in desert shrublands. Understanding how soil moisture is spatially distributed in desert shrublands provides valuable insights into how shrubs use and impact limiting water resources, and how shrublands may respond to future meteorological and climate change. Our goals were to determine how soil moisture is partitioned between soil volumes under canopies and in the bare soil interspaces across multiple desert shrublands, and to evaluate the roles of physical soil properties, shrub-type characteristics, meteorology, and measurement resolution in influencing and observing variation in soil moisture partitioning. Utilizing two long-term soil moisture datasets (monthly resolution, 30 years, whole soil profile measurements; and 30 min resolution, 10 years, 10–30 cm measurements), we compared soil moisture partitioning across nine northern Chihuahuan Desert shrubland sites (three sites dominated by creosotebush [ Larrea tridentata ], three by honey mesquite [ Prosopis glandulosa ], and three by tarbush [ Flourensia cernua ]) in the Jornada Basin, southern New Mexico, USA. Over 30 years, monthly, whole profile data showed that soil moisture in mesquite shrublands was consistently higher in bare soil interspaces compared to under canopies, whereas soil moisture under and between shrubs was more similar in creosotebush and tarbush shrublands. Physical soil properties were linked as explanatory variables of long-term soil moisture partitioning (monthly whole profile dataset), whereas 30-minute data showed that shorter-term periods of higher precipitation promoted greater near surface soil moisture (10–30 cm) in bare soil interspaces that was not captured at monthly time steps. Thus, although the long-term average partitioning of soil moisture in these shrublands is strongly controlled by soil physical properties, soil moisture partitioning varies at shorter timescales (daily to weekly) in response to precipitation events. Moreover, shrub-type characteristics influenced soil moisture partitioning, with dense and tall mesquite shrubs having lower under canopy soil moisture than tarbush, and root architecture potentially influencing partitioning across creosotebush sites. These results illustrate diversity in soil moisture partitioning both between and within shrublands of the northern Chihuahuan Desert, and elucidate how physical soil properties, shrub-type characteristics, and meteorological variation interact to shape their soil moisture dynamics.

New Mexico

Post-Wildfire Hydrologic Hazards in the Wildland Urban Interface of Colorado and the Western United States

Following a wildfire, such as the 2002 Missionary Ridge fire, a number of hydrologic hazards may develop that can have an important impact on water resources, businesses, homes, reservoirs, roads, and utilities in the wildland urban interface (areas where homes and commercial developments are interspersed with wildlands) in mountainous areas of the Western United States. This fact sheet describes these hazards and identifies approaches to quantify them, thus enabling land and resource managers to plan for and mitigate the effects of these hazards. The fact sheet has been produced in association with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Fire Science Thrust program and the Colorado Front Range Demonstration Project (CFRDP). The current (2007) focus of the CFRDP is on the Three Lakes watershed in Grand County, Colorado, which has applicability to many similar forested, mountain areas in the Western United States.

Fact Sheet

NHDPlus High Resolution (NHDPlus HR)---A hydrography framework for the Nation

Reliable and accurate high-resolution mapping of the Nation’s waters are critical inputs to models and decision support systems used to predict risk and enable response to impacts on water resources. It is necessary to know where the water is and how it relates to features beyond the stream network like forests, cities, and infrastructure. An up-to-date, high-resolution national hydrography framework is required for modeling the occurrence of water and to provide the ability to connect detailed information from the surrounding landscape to the stream network. To support this, the U.S. Geological Survey is developing NHDPlus High Resolution (NHDPlus HR), the next generation of NHDPlus using updated, high-resolution datasets to create a modern, scalable, and openly accessible hydrography framework for the inland waters of the Nation.

Fact Sheet

Potentiometric surface map of the Southern High Plains aquifer in the Cannon Air Force Base area, Curry County, New Mexico, 2020

Declining water levels and the potential impact on water resources on and around Cannon Air Force Base (AFB), New Mexico, has necessitated an up-to-date review of the potentiometric surface to evaluate the availability of water resources for future use. Analysis of groundwater-flow directions and hydraulic gradients can provide an understanding of depletion by heavy groundwater pumping and recharge through playa lakes, as well as the relationship between the groundwater levels and underlying geology. The objectives of this study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Air Force Civil Engineer Center, are to assist Cannon AFB in understanding and interpreting current and local hydrologic conditions and to evaluate groundwater-level change from 2015 to 2020 using new and historical data. A groundwater potentiometric surface contour map was constructed to better understand the Southern High Plains aquifer around Cannon AFB and to show the altitude of the water-table surface and groundwater-flow patterns. Four hydrographs were created from periodic measurements of groundwater levels in wells on and around Cannon AFB to provide information about historical groundwater-level changes and visualize trends from the water-level records. The long-term trend present in all four hydrographs is a steady decline in groundwater levels, with some areas declining faster than others. The groundwater-level change map presented in this study provides a visual representation of the change in groundwater level from the winter 2015 to winter 2020 measuring events. Results show that among corresponding wells measured in 2015 and 2020, 50.7 percent indicated a decline in water levels, 29.9 percent indicated neutral water levels, and 19.4 percent indicated a rise in water levels. The region to the north of the groundwater trough on Cannon AFB contained most of the groundwater-level rises, whereas the regions located near the trough and just west of Clovis, N. Mex., contained most of the declines. These results suggest that continued monitoring of declining groundwater levels in the area would provide valuable decision-support information for assessing the sustainability of this water resource.

New Mexico

Water-Quality patterns in some of the nation's major river basins and aquifers

In 1991, the National Water - Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began evaluating the quality of streams, ground water , and aquatic ecosystems in 51 major river basins and aquifer systems (known as "study units") across the nation. The assessments characterize the ambient water resource - the source of about 60 percent of the nation's drinking water , as well as water for industrial, irrigation, and recreational uses - and thereby complement much of the compliance and regulatory monitoring conducted at the state level and by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA).

Water Resources Impact

Assessing five national priorities in water resources

In 2001, the National Water - Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began its second decade of studies. A total of 42 study units (major river basins and aquifers across the nation) will be reassessed in three groups of 14 on a rotating schedule. Each group of study units will be studied intensively for three years, followed by six years of low-intensity assessment. One of the primary goals in the second decade is to improve understanding of the key processes that control water - quality conditions in order to establish the links among the sources of contaminants, their transport through the hydrologic system, and the effects of contaminants and physical alterations on stream biota and ecosystems and on the quality of drinking water . An improved understanding of these links will provide the basis for predicting water - quality conditions in unmonitored areas and for predicting the likely effects of contemplated changes in land- and water -management practices.

Water Resources Impact

Progress in data collection and dissemination in water resources – 1974-2014

In the 50 years since the founding of the American Water Resources Association (AWRA), there has been tremendous and likely unforeseen progress in water-re- sources data collection and dissemination. Langford and Doyel (1974) (henceforth L&D) described progress during the decade following the founding of AWRA, and focused their description around seven topics. L&D described the changes as being “more philosophical than technical,” and noted the importance to the water-resources com- munity of the more than 30 Federal Acts or Amendments enacted in the decade. The purpose of this article is to provide an update to L&D by reviewing L&D’s predictions of anticipated changes in water resources data collection and dissemi-nation, providing an overview of some of the drivers of change in the water-resources community in the last 40 years, identifying some key advances in water-resources data collection and dissemination since 1974, and out-lining some important near-term challenges. The overview is necessarily incomplete, but represents one perspective based on years of collaboration throughout the water-resources community.

Water Resources Impact

Biota: Providing often-overlooked connections among freshwater systems

When we think about connections in and among aquatic systems, we typically envision clear headwater streams flowing into downstream rivers, river floodwaters spilling out onto adjacent floodplains, or groundwater connecting wetlands to lakes and streams. However, there is another layer of connectivity moving materials among freshwater systems, one with connections that are not always tied to downgradient flows of surface waters and groundwater. These movements are those of organisms, key components of virtually every freshwater system on the planet. In their movements across the landscape, biota connect aquatic systems in often-overlooked ways.

Water Resources Impact