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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

A hydrologic drying bias in water-resource impact analyses of anthropogenic climate change

For water-resource planning, sensitivity of freshwater availability to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) often is analyzed with “offline” hydrologic models that use precipitation and potential evapotranspiration ( E p ) as inputs. Because E p is not a climate-model output, an intermediary model of E p must be introduced to connect the climate model to the hydrologic model. Several E p methods are used. The suitability of each can be assessed by noting a credible E p method for offline analyses should be able to reproduce climate models’ ACC-driven changes in actual evapotranspiration in regions and seasons of negligible water stress ( E w ). We quantified this ability for seven commonly used E p methods and for a simple proportionality with available energy (“energy-only” method). With the exception of the energy-only method, all methods tend to overestimate substantially the increase in E p associated with ACC. In an offline hydrologic model, the E p -change biases produce excessive increases in actual evapotranspiration ( E ), whether the system experiences water stress or not, and thence strong negative biases in runoff change, as compared to hydrologic fluxes in the driving climate models. The runoff biases are comparable in magnitude to the ACC-induced runoff changes themselves. These results suggest future hydrologic drying (wetting) trends likely are being systematically and substantially overestimated (underestimated) in many water-resource impact analyses.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat loss and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated land-use demand. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km 2 ) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within Mediterranean California ecoregions. Historical land use and land cover (LULC) change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources. Five future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios. Spatial land-use transition outputs across scenarios were combined to reveal scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index was developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas to proximal land conversion. By 2060, highest LULC conversion threats were projected to impact nearly 10,500 km 2 of land area within 10 km of a protected area boundary and over 18,000 km 2 of land area within essential habitat connectivity areas. Agricultural water use declined across all scenarios perpetuating historical drought-related land use from 2008-2010 and trends of annual cropland conversion into perennial woody crops. STSM is useful in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resource use as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, LULC change impacts will help to better inform resource management and mitigation strategies.

California

Regional impact of water resource investments in an developing area

Regional development and industrialization patterns are investigated and related via regression analysis to water resource investments for the island of Puerto Rico. Although results of this study indicate such investments have little immediate or short‐term impact, significant relationships and variations in regional responses appear over longer time periods. This is shown by applying a variation of Zellner's method of performing seemingly unrelated regressions jointly. By this method, subsets of parameter coefficients of specific economic variables were restricted across regional equations while unrestricted coefficients were interpreted as explaining systematic regional variations in response to public investment. Regional differences, obtained by using this method, are frequently neglected when simply examining the overall development process. Among the more interesting results in terms of policy implications is the apparent significant relationship, over the period considered, between changes in the distribution of income and the pattern of water resource development.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

Introduction to special section on impacts of land use change on water resources

Changes in land use have potentially large impacts on water resources, yet quantifying these impacts remains among the more challenging problems in hydrology. Water, food, energy, and climate are linked through complex webs of direct and indirect effects and feedbacks. Land use is undergoing major changes due not only to pressures for more efficient food, feed, and fiber production to support growing populations but also due to policy shifts that are creating markets for biofuel and agricultural carbon sequestration. Hydrologic systems embody flows of water, solutes, sediments, and energy that vary even in the absence of human activity. Understanding land use impacts thus necessitates integrated scientific approaches. Field measurements, remote sensing, and modeling studies are shedding new light on the modes and mechanisms by which land use changes impact water resources. Such studies can help deconflate the interconnected influences of human actions and natural variations on the quantity and quality of soil water, surface water, and groundwater, past, present, and future.

Water Resources Research

A framework for modeling anthropogenic impacts on waterbird habitats: addressing future uncertainty in conservation planning

The amount and quality of natural resources available for terrestrial and aquatic wildlife habitats are expected to decrease throughout the world in areas that are intensively managed for urban and agricultural uses. Changes in climate and management of increasingly limited water supplies may further impact water resources essential for sustaining habitats. In this report, we document adapting a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system model for the Central Valley of California. We demonstrate using this adapted model (WEAP-CV wh ) to evaluate impacts produced from plausible future scenarios on agricultural and wetland habitats used by waterbirds and other wildlife. Processed output from WEAP-CV wh indicated varying levels of impact caused by projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management in scenarios used to exemplify this approach. Among scenarios, the NCAR-CCSM3 A2 climate projection had a greater impact than the CNRM-CM3 B1 climate projection, whereas expansive urbanization had a greater impact than strategic urbanization, on annual availability of waterbird habitat. Scenarios including extensive rice-idling or substantial instream flow requirements on important water supply sources produced large impacts on annual availability of waterbird habitat. In the year corresponding with the greatest habitat reduction for each scenario, the scenario including instream flow requirements resulted in the greatest decrease in habitats throughout all months of the wintering period relative to other scenarios. This approach provides a new and useful tool for habitat conservation planning in the Central Valley and a model to guide similar research investigations aiming to inform conservation, management, and restoration of important wildlife habitats.

California

Source, Use, and Disposition of Freshwater in Puerto Rico, 2005

Water diverted from streams and pumped from wells constitutes the main sources of water for the 78 municipios of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. A better understanding is needed about water-use patterns, particularly about the amount of water used, where and how this water is used and disposed, and how human activities impact water resources. Irrigation practices, indoor and outdoor household uses, industrial uses, and commercial and mining withdrawals affect reservoirs, streams, and aquifers. Accurate and accessible water information for Puerto Rico is critical to ensure that water managers have the ability to protect and conserve this natural resource. The population of Puerto Rico increased 15 percent, from 3.4 million in 1985 to 3.9 million people 2005 and resulted in an increased demand for freshwater, mostly for the public-supply water use category. Almost 99 percent of the residents in Puerto Rico were served by public-supply water systems in 2005. One of the major challenges that water managers confront is the need to provide sufficient freshwater availability in the densely populated areas. Public-supply water is provided by the Puerto Rico Aqueducts and Sewers Authority (PRASA) and by non-PRASA systems. Non-PRASA systems refer to community-operated water systems (water systems that serve a rural or suburban housing area).

Fact Sheet

Modflow-setup: Robust automation of groundwater model construction

In an age of both big data and increasing strain on water resources, sound management decisions often rely on numerical models. Numerical models provide a physics-based framework for assimilating and making sense of information that by itself only provides a limited description of the hydrologic system. Often, numerical models are the best option for quantifying even intuitively obvious connections between human activities and water resource impacts. However, despite many recent advances in model data assimilation and uncertainty quantification, the process of constructing numerical models remains laborious, expensive, and opaque, often precluding their use in decision making. Modflow-setup aims to provide rapid and consistent construction of MODFLOW groundwater models through robust and repeatable automation. Common model construction tasks are distilled in an open-source, online code base that is tested and extensible through collaborative version control. Input to Modflow-setup consists of a single configuration file that summarizes the workflow for building a model, including source data, construction options, and output packages. Source data providing model structure and parameter information including shapefiles, rasters, NetCDF files, tables, and other (geolocated) sources to MODFLOW models are read in and mapped to the model discretization, using Flopy and other general open-source scientific Python libraries. In a few minutes, an external array-based MODFLOW model amenable to parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification is produced. This paper describes the core functionality of Modflow-setup, including a worked example of a MODFLOW 6 model for evaluating pumping impacts to a lake in central Wisconsin, United States.

Wisconsin

Assessment of impacts of proposed coal-resource and related economic development on water resources, Yampa River basin, Colorado and Wyoming: A summary

Expanded mining and use of coal resources in the Rocky Mountain region of the western United States will have substantial impacts on water resources, environmental amenities, and social and economic conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey has completed a 3-year assessment of the Yampa River basin, Colorado and Wyoming, where increased coal-resource development has begun to affect the environment and quality of life. Economic projections of the overall effects of coal-resource development were used to estimate water use and the types and amounts of waste residuals that need to be assimilated into the environment. Based in part upon these projections, several physical-based models and other semiquantitative assessment methods were used to determine possible effects upon the basin's water resources. Depending on the magnitude of mining and use of coal resources in the basin, an estimated 0.7 to 2.7 million tons (0.6 to 2.4 million metric tons) of waste residuals may be discharged annually into the environment by coal-resource development and associated economic activities. If the assumed development of coal resources in the basin occurs, annual consumptive use of water, which was approximately 142,000 acre-feet (175 million cubic meters) during 1975, may almost double by 1990. In a related analysis of alternative cooling systems for coal-conversion facilities, four to five times as much water may be used consumptively in a wet-tower, cooling-pond recycling system as in once-through cooling. An equivalent amount of coal transported by slurry pipeline would require about one-third the water used consumptively by once-through cooling for in-basin conversion. Current conditions and a variety of possible changes in the water resources of the basin resulting from coal-resource development were assessed. Basin population may increase by as much as threefold between 1975 and 1990. Volumes of wastes requiring treatment will increase accordingly. Potential problems associated with ammonia-nitrogen concentrations in the Yampa River downstream from Steamboat Springs were evaluated using a waste-load assimilative-capacity model. Changes in sediment loads carried by streams due to increased coal mining and construction of roads and buildings may be apparent only locally; projected increases in sediment loads relative to historic loads from the basin are estimated to be 2 to 7 percent. Solid-waste residuals generated by coal-conversion processes and disposed of into old mine pits may cause widely dispersed ground-water contamination, based on simulation-modeling results. Projected increases in year-round water use will probably result in the construction of several proposed reservoirs. Current seasonal patterns of streamflow and of dissolvedsolids concentrations in streamflow will be altered appreciably by these reservoirs. Decreases in time-weighted mean-annual dissolved-solids concentrations of as much as 34 percent are anticipated, based upon model simulations of several configurations of proposed reservoirs. Detailed statistical analyses of water-quality conditions in the Yampa River basin were made. Regionalized maximum waterquality concentrations were estimated for possible comparison with future conditions. Using Landsat imagery and aerial photographs, potential remote-sensing applications were evaluated to monitor land-use changes and to assess both snow cover and turbidity levels in streams. The technical information provided by the several studies of the Yampa River basin assessment should be useful to regional planners and resource managers in evaluating the possible impacts of development on the basin's water resources.

Colorado, Wyoming

A framework for quantitative assessment of impacts related to energy and mineral resource development

Natural resource planning at all scales demands methods for assessing the impacts of resource development and use, and in particular it requires standardized methods that yield robust and unbiased results. Building from existing probabilistic methods for assessing the volumes of energy and mineral resources, we provide an algorithm for consistent, reproducible, quantitative assessment of resource development impacts. The approach combines probabilistic input data with Monte Carlo statistical methods to determine probabilistic outputs that convey the uncertainties inherent in the data. For example, one can utilize our algorithm to combine data from a natural gas resource assessment with maps of sage grouse leks and piñon-juniper woodlands in the same area to estimate possible future habitat impacts due to possible future gas development. As another example: one could combine geochemical data and maps of lynx habitat with data from a mineral deposit assessment in the same area to determine possible future mining impacts on water resources and lynx habitat. The approach can be applied to a broad range of positive and negative resource development impacts, such as water quantity or quality, economic benefits, or air quality, limited only by the availability of necessary input data and quantified relationships among geologic resources, development alternatives, and impacts. The framework enables quantitative evaluation of the trade-offs inherent in resource management decision-making, including cumulative impacts, to address societal concerns and policy aspects of resource development.

Natural Resources Research

The future of Indiana's water resources: A report from the Indiana climate change impacts assessment

Indiana’s water resources—in streams and lakes, in plants and soils, and underground—are a critical component of the state’s economy and well-being. Availability of this important resource is driven by precipitation and temperature patterns, both of which have shifted in recent decades, and is also highly influenced by how we manage natural and human systems. As local temperatures continue to rise and rainfall patterns shift, managing the multiple water needs of communities, natural systems, recreation, industry, and agriculture will become increasingly difficult. Ensuring that enough water is available in the right places and at the right times will require awareness of Indiana’s changing water resources and planning at regional and state levels. This report from the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment (IN CCIA) applies climate change projections for the state to explore how continued changes in Indiana’s climate are going to affect all aspects of water resources, including soil water, evaporation, runoff, snow cover, streamflow, drought, and flooding. The findings presented here are primarily based on the IN CCIA Water Resources Working Group technical report (Cherkauer et al., 2021) and the IN CCIA report Indiana’s Past and Future Climate (Widhalm et al., 2018).

Indiana

Pore-water chemistry from the ICDP-USGS coer hole in the Chesapeake Bay impact structure--Implications for paleohydrology, microbial habitat, and water resources

We investigated the groundwater system of the Chesapeake Bay impact structure by analyzing the pore-water chemistry in cores taken from a 1766-m-deep drill hole 10 km north of Cape Charles, Virginia. Pore water was extracted using high-speed centrifuges from over 100 cores sampled from a 1300 m section of the drill hole. The pore-water samples were analyzed for major cations and anions, stable isotopes of water and sulfate, dissolved and total carbon, and bioavailable iron. The results reveal a broad transition between fresh and saline water from 100 to 500 m depth in the post-impact sediment section, and an underlying syn-impact section that is almost entirely filled with brine. The presence of brine in the lowermost post-impact section and the trend in the dissolved chloride with depth suggest a transport process dominated by molecular diffusion and slow, compaction-driven, upward flow. Major ion results indicate residual effects of diagenesis from heating, and a pre-impact origin for the brine. High levels of dissolved organic carbon (6-95 mg/L) and the distribution of electron acceptors indicate an environment that may be favorable for microbial activity throughout the drilled section. The concentration and extent of the brine is much greater than had previously been observed, suggesting its occurrence may be common in the inner crater. However, groundwater flow conditions in the structure may reduce the salt-water-intrusion hazard associated with the brine.

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America

Global impacts of conversions from natural to agricultural ecosystems on water resources: Quantity versus quality

Past land use changes have greatly impacted global water resources, with often opposing effects on water quantity and quality. Increases in rain‐fed cropland (460%) and pastureland (560%) during the past 300 years from forest and grasslands decreased evapotranspiration and increased recharge (two orders of magnitude) and streamflow (one order of magnitude). However, increased water quantity degraded water quality by mobilization of salts, salinization caused by shallow water tables, and fertilizer leaching into underlying aquifers that discharge to streams. Since the 1950s, irrigated agriculture has expanded globally by 174%, accounting for ∼90% of global freshwater consumption. Irrigation based on surface water reduced streamflow and raised water tables resulting in waterlogging in many areas (China, India, and United States). Marked increases in groundwater‐fed irrigation in the last few decades in these areas has lowered water tables (≤1 m/yr) and reduced streamflow. Degradation of water quality in irrigated areas has resulted from processes similar to those in rain‐fed agriculture: salt mobilization, salinization in waterlogged areas, and fertilizer leaching. Strategies for remediating water resource problems related to agriculture often have opposing effects on water quantity and quality. Long time lags (decades to centuries) between land use changes and system response (e.g., recharge, streamflow, and water quality), particularly in semiarid regions, mean that the full impact of land use changes has not been realized in many areas and remediation to reverse impacts will also take a long time. Future land use changes should consider potential impacts on water resources, particularly trade‐offs between water, salt, and nutrient balances, to develop sustainable water resources to meet human and ecosystem needs.

Water Resources Research

Sediment transport and deposition

Sediment transport and deposition (sedimentation) occurs from natural and anthropogenic sources in rivers, lakes, and reservoirs. Substantial changes in sediment transport (such as a major increase or decrease in sediment supply) can impact aquatic ecosystems that depend on a particular sediment quantity and particle size, for example, through altering stream-channel geomorphology or fish habitat. For human communities that rely on surface water resources, sedimentation can impact water supply and quality. Sedimentation in reservoirs affects water supply by reducing the reservoir volume available to store water. Sediment, as well as the nutrients and chemicals adsorbed in sediment, can serve as pollutants that decrease water quality and make water treatment necessary and costly.

California

Water resources on Guam—Potential impacts of and adaptive response to climate change

The goals of this joint U.S. Geological Survey, University of Hawaiʻi, University of Guam, University of Texas, and East-West Center study were to (1) provide basic understanding about water resources for U.S. Department of Defense installations on Guam and (2) assess the resulting effect of sea-level rise and a changing climate on freshwater availability, on the basis of historic information, sea-level rise projections, and global-climate model temperature and rainfall projections. Downscaled regional climate models, informed by a multimodel ensemble of global climate models provided projections of future climate conditions for Guam. These projected climate conditions provided input to surface-water and groundwater models developed for Guam’s hydrology. Guam’s water resources in a future climate condition (2080–99) are projected to diminish relative to the recent climate condition. Projected average temperature increases, and average rainfall decreases will lead to reduced streamflow in southern Guam and reduced groundwater recharge to the Northern Guam Lens Aquifer (NGLA). Projected average temperatures in southern Guam will increase about 5.8 °F (3.22 °C), overall rainfall will decrease about 7 percent, and streamflow will consequently decrease 18 percent in important areas of southern Guam. Similarly, across the NGLA, future groundwater recharge will be 19 percent less than estimated recharge from 2012. Reduced future streamflow will decrease water availability from the Fena Valley Reservoir; however, the reservoir is expected to be able to supply water at recent demand rates without lowering the reservoir level to the elevation of the water-supply intakes throughout the simulated period of a future climate. A twelve-year simulation indicates that the reservoir can supply about twice the 2018 demand without lowering the reservoir level to the water-supply intakes. By following mitigation strategies to increase reservoir water availability, the withdrawal rate can be increased by 1.7 percent if the water-supply intakes are lowered 5 ft, by 3.5 percent if the spillway height is raised 5 ft, and by 5.3 percent if both strategies are combined. Higher sea level and reduced future recharge will decrease water availability from the NGLA. An index of composite chloride concentration from production wells increases to 300 milligrams per liter (mg/L) for future climate conditions and at 2010 withdrawal rates, compared with 130 mg/L under historic climate conditions. Most of this increase is due to reduced recharge as higher (+3.2 ft) sea level only has a small role in increasing withdrawn water salinity. A redistributed withdrawal scenario in which the composite chloride concentration is 290 mg/L offers only slight improvement. Should future droughts reduce recharge proportionally to the decreases observed during historic droughts, the composite concentration would be about 900 mg/L, and more than 70 percent of Guam’s production wells would produce water with a composite concentration greater than 500 mg/L. Potential mitigation strategies for increasing the potable yield of the NGLA in a future climate include reducing depths of deep production wells and reducing the withdrawal rates in selected wells projected to have higher chloride concentrations. Simulations show both strategies are effective in lowering the composite concentration of the withdrawn water.

Scientific Investigations Report

Literature assessment of the Charlotte Harbor estuarine system and surrounding area, Southwest Florida

The Governor of Florida established the Charlotte Harbor Resource Planning and Management committee to recommend the course of action Florida should take in planning for potential growth in the rapidly growing area surrounding Charlotte Harbor. In May 1981, the U.S. Geological Survey began a planning study to determine detailed hydrologic study needs of the Charlotte Harbor area. A literature search of available data and reports pertaining to the Charlotte Harbor estuarine system and surrounding area resulted in almost 1,300 references. This report contains all references collected during this search. Some of the major reference topics are altered freshwater flow, water quality of the harbor and drainage systems, circulation and tides, coastal and marine resources, fisheries, geology and hydrology of the area, impact studies, water resources, flora and fauna of the area, and water supply. Sixty-eight key words or subject identifiers are used to the index report. (USGS)

Open-File Report

Water resources and potential hydrologic effects of oil-shale development in the southeastern Uinta Basin, Utah and Colorado

Proposed oil-shale mining in northeastern Utah is expected to impact the water resources of a 3,000-square-mile area. This report summarizes a comprehensive hydrologic investigation of the area which resulted in 13 published reports. Hydrologic information obtained during 1974-80 was used to evaluate the availability of water and to evaluate potential impacts of an oil-shale industry on the water resources. The study area is the southeastern part of the Uinta Basin, Utah and Colorado, where the hydrology is extremely variable. The normal annual precipitation averages 11 inches and varies with altitude. It ranges from less than 8 inches at altitudes below 5,000 feet along the White and Green Rivers to more than 20 inches where altitudes exceed 9,000 feet on the Roan Plateau. The White and Green Rivers are large streams that flow through the area. They convey an average flow of 4.3 million acre-feet per year from outside drainage areas of about 34,000 square miles, which is more than 150 times as much flow as that originating within the area. Streams originating in areas where precipitation is less than 10 inches are ephemeral. Mean annual runoff from the study area is about 28,000 acre-feet and ranges from less than 0.1 to 1.6 inches, depending on the location. At any given site, runoff varies greatly-from year to year and season to season. Potential evapotranspiration is large, exceeding precipitation in all years. Three major aquifers occur in the area. They are alluvial deposits of small areal extent along the major stream valleys; the bird's-nest aquifer of the Parachute Creek Member of the Green River Formation, which is limited to the central part of the study area; and the Douglas Creek aquifer of the Douglas Creek Member of the Green River Formation, which underlies most of the area. Total recoverable water in storage in the three aquifers is about 18 million acre-feet. Yields of individual wells and interference between wells limit the maximum practical withdrawal to about 20,000 acre-feet per year. An oil-shale industry in the southeastern Uinta Basin with a peak production of 400,000 barrels of oil per day would require a water supply of about 70,000 acre-feet per year. Sources of water supply considered for such an industry were: diversion from the natural flow of the White River, a proposed reservoir on the White River, diversion from the White River combined with proposed off-stream storage in Hells Hole Canyon, diversion from the Green River, and conjunctive use of ground and surface water. The proposed reservoir on the White River would trap about 90 percent of the sediment moving in the river and in turn would release almost sediment-free water. Possible impacts are changes in channel gradient in the downstream 18 miles of the White River and changes in bank stability. In some parts of the area, annual sheet-erosion rates are as great as 2.2 acre-feet per square mile but sediment yield to the White River is less than might be expected because the runoff is small. If process water from retort operations or water used in the construction of surface facilities is discharged into a normally dry streambed, increased channel erosion and sediment in tributary streams could result in increased sediment loads in the White River. In addition, sediment yields from retorted-shale piles with minimum slopes could exceed 0.1 acrefoot per square mile during a common storm. Thus, without safeguards, the useful life of any proposed reservoir or holding pond could be decreased considerably. Leachate water from retorted-shale piles has large concentrations of sodium and sulfate, and the chemical composition of retort waters differs considerably from that of the natural waters of the area. The retort waters contain a greater concentration of dissolved solids and more organic carbon and nutrients. Without proper disposal or impoundment of retort and leachate waters, the salinity of downstream waters in the Colorado River Basin would be increased.

Colorado, Utah

State of science, gap analysis, and prioritization for southeastern United States water-quality impacts from coastal storms—Fiscal year 2023 program report to the Water Resources Mission Area from the Water Availability Impacts of Extreme Events Program—Hurricanes

Tropical cyclones (coastal storm events that include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes) cause landscape-scale disturbances that can lead to impaired water quality and thus reduce water availability for use. Stakeholders and scientists at local and national scales have illustrated a need for understanding these risks to water quality. A regional and comprehensive understanding of the impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes on surface-water and groundwater quality—and thus water availability—is lacking for potentially impacted coastal and inland areas. As the U.S. Geological Survey considers development of tools to predict the extent to which water-quality impacts of hurricanes affect water availability, an assessment of the state of the science of hurricane impacts is needed, including a gap analysis and prioritization of data and science needs. This assessment focuses on the southeastern coastal States.

southeastern United States