SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Journal of Time Series Analysis”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2025

A generalized design flood estimation framework under stationary and non-stationary scenarios

With the ever-ongoing debate over the death of stationarity in flood time series, developing methods for flood frequency analysis that can address both stationarity and non-stationarity simultaneously has become increasingly important for design flood estimation. Existing non-stationary flood frequency analysis (NFFQ) methods are either limited to providing time-varying conditional flood quantile estimates or lack closed-form expression to estimate the design flood over the planning period. We propose a novel framework, MM-NFFQ, that introduces marginal moments (MM) estimation techniques to provide a closed-form expression to estimate design flood under non-stationarity. We demonstrate MM-NFFQ using the LP3 distribution for estimating conditional moments, but in principle, it can work for any 3-parameter distribution. We first show the proposed MM-NFFQ collapses to stationary flood frequency analysis analytically using synthetic data and then demonstrate the MM-NFFQ approach for two basins exhibiting non-stationarity in their flood time series. We further extend the analysis to selected 40 basins across CONUS and find that arid basins exhibit higher deviation from stationarity. Thus, the proposed MM-NFFQ framework can estimate traditional flood frequency curves for both, stationary and non-stationary flood processes, and can also be utilized to analyze the changes in conditional moments and marginal moments over different planning horizons.

Journal of Hydrology X↗

USGS2021

Assessment and significance of the frequency domain for trends in annual peak streamflow

Risk management of nonstationary floods depends on an understanding of trends over a range of flood frequencies representing small (frequent) to large (infrequent) floods. Quantile regression is applied to the annual peak streamflow distributions at 2683 sites in the contiguous United States to test for trends in the 10th quantile (floods with a 0.9 annual exceedance probability), the 50th quantile (median annual flood), and 90th quantile (floods with a 0.1 annual exceedance probability). Trends are most common (36% of sites) for the median annual flood (50th quantile) and often coherent with trends in both frequent small floods (10th quantile) and infrequent large floods (90th quantile). Changes in the at-site variance of annual peak streamflow, indicated by convergence (decreasing variance) or divergence (increasing variance) of the 10th and 90th quantiles over time, are primarily in response to reservoir operation or urban development rather than climate. An analysis of synthetic series generated from nonstationary distributions demonstrates that quantile regression and standard trend tests used in flood frequency analysis have limited power and high rates of false negatives (>70%) when a test has a significance of p = 0.05. Quantile regression and tests with lower significance complement standard trend testing to inform flood risk management.

Journal of Flood Risk Management↗

USGS2003

Shallow soil CO2 flow along the San Andreas and Calaveras Faults, California

We evaluate a comprehensive soil CO2 survey along the San Andreas fault (SAF) in Parkfield, and the Calaveras fault (CF) in Hollister, California, in the context of spatial and temporal variability, origin, and transport of CO2 in fractured terrain. CO2 efflux was measured within grids with portable instrumentation and continously with meteorological parameters at a fixed station, in both faulted and unfaulted areas. Spatial and temporal variability of surface CO2 effluxes was observed to be higher at faulted SAF and CF sites, relative to comparable background areas. However, ??13C (-23.3 to - 16.4???) and ??14C (75.5 to 94.4???) values of soil CO2 in both faulted and unfaulted areas are indicative of biogenic CO2, even though CO2 effluxes in faulted areas reached values as high as 428 g m-2 d-1. Profiles of soil CO2 concentration as a function of depth were measured at multiple sites within SAF and CF grids and repeatedly at two locations at the SAF grid. Many of these profiles suggest a surprisingly high component of advective CO2 flow. Spectral and correlation analysis of SAF CO2 efflux and meteorological parameter time series indicates that effects of wind speed variations on atmospheric air flow though fractures modulate surface efflux of biogenic CO2. The resulting areal patterns in CO2 effluxes could be erroneously attributed to a deep gas source in the absence of isotopic data, a problem that must be addressed in fault zone soil gas studies.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2017

Effect of NOAA satellite orbital drift on AVHRR-derived phenological metrics

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center routinely produces and distributes a remote sensing phenology (RSP) dataset derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) 1-km data compiled from a series of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellites (NOAA-11, −14, −16, −17, −18, and −19). Each NOAA satellite experienced orbital drift during its duty period, which influenced the AVHRR reflectance measurements. To understand the effect of the orbital drift on the AVHRR-derived RSP dataset, we analyzed the impact of solar zenith angle (SZA) on the RSP metrics in the conterminous United States (CONUS). The AVHRR weekly composites were used to calculate the growing-season median SZA at the pixel level for each year from 1989 to 2014. The results showed that the SZA increased towards the end of each NOAA satellite mission with the highest increasing rate occurring during NOAA-11 (1989–1994) and NOAA-14 (1995–2000) missions. The growing-season median SZA values (44°–60°) in 1992, 1993, 1994, 1999, and 2000 were substantially higher than those in other years (28°–40°). The high SZA in those years caused negative trends in the SZA time series, that were statistically significant (at α = 0.05 level) in 76.9% of the CONUS area. A pixel-based temporal correlation analysis showed that the phenological metrics and SZA were significantly correlated (at α = 0.05 level) in 4.1–20.4% of the CONUS area. After excluding the 5 years with high SZA (>40°) from the analysis, the temporal SZA trend was largely reduced, significantly affecting less than 2% of the study area. Additionally, significant correlation between the phenological metrics and SZA was observed in less than 7% of the study area. Our study concluded that the NOAA satellite orbital drift increased SZA, and in turn, influenced the phenological metrics. Elimination of the years with high median SZA reduced the influence of orbital drift on the RSP time series.

International Journal of Applied Earth Observation↗

USGS2010

Iceberg calving as a primary source of regional‐scale glacier‐generated seismicity in the St. Elias Mountains, Alaska

Since the installation of the Alaska Regional Seismic Network in the 1970s, data analysts have noted nontectonic seismic events thought to be related to glacier dynamics. While loose associations with the glaciers of the St. Elias Mountains have been made, no detailed study of the source locations has been undertaken. We performed a two-step investigation surrounding these events, beginning with manual locations that guided an automated detection and event sifting routine. Results from the manual investigation highlight characteristics of the seismic waveforms including single-peaked (narrowband) spectra, emergent onsets, lack of distinct phase arrivals, and a predominant cluster of locations near the calving termini of several neighboring tidewater glaciers. Through these locations, comparison with previous work, analyses of waveform characteristics, frequency-magnitude statistics and temporal patterns in seismicity, we suggest calving as a source for the seismicity. Statistical properties and time series analysis of the event catalog suggest a scale-invariant process that has no single or simple forcing. These results support the idea that calving is often a response to short-lived or localized stress perturbations. Our results demonstrate the utility of passive seismic instrumentation to monitor relative changes in the rate and magnitude of iceberg calving at tidewater glaciers that may be volatile or susceptible to ensuing rapid retreat, especially when existing seismic infrastructure can be used.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

1984–2010 trends in fire burn severity and area for the conterminous US

Burn severity products created by the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) project were used to analyse historical trends in burn severity. Using a severity metric calculated by modelling the cumulative distribution of differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) and Relativized dNBR (RdNBR) data, we examined burn area and burn severity of 4893 historical fires (1984–2010) distributed across the conterminous US (CONUS) and mapped by MTBS. Yearly mean burn severity values (weighted by area), maximum burn severity metric values, mean area of burn, maximum burn area and total burn area were evaluated within 27 US National Vegetation Classification macrogroups. Time series assessments of burned area and severity were performed using Mann–Kendall tests. Burned area and severity varied by vegetation classification, but most vegetation groups showed no detectable change during the 1984–2010 period. Of the 27 analysed vegetation groups, trend analysis revealed burned area increased in eight, and burn severity has increased in seven. This study suggests that burned area and severity, as measured by the severity metric based on dNBR or RdNBR, have not changed substantially for most vegetation groups evaluated within CONUS.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗

USGS2007

Analysis and modeling of long‐term stream temperatures on the Steamboat Creek Basin, Oregon: Implications for land use and fish habitat

Steamboat Creek basin is an important source of timber and provides crucial spawning and rearing habitat for anadromous steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ). Because stream temperatures are near the upper limit of tolerance for the survival of juvenile steelhead, the possible long‐term effect of clear‐cut logging on stream temperatures was assessed. Twenty‐year (1969–1989) records of summer stream temperature and flow from four tributaries and two reaches of Steamboat Creek and Boulder Creek (a nearby unlogged watershed) were analyzed. Logging records for the Steamboat Creek basin and air temperature records also were used in the analysis. A time‐series model of the components of stream temperature (seasonal cycle of solar radiation, air temperature, streamflow, an autoregressive term of order 1, and a linear trend variable) was fitted to the water‐temperature data. The linear trend variable was significant in all the fitted models except Bend Creek (a tributary fed by cool ground‐water discharge) and Boulder Creek. Because no trends in either climate (i.e., air temperature) or streamflow were found in the data, the trend variable was associated with the pre‐1969 loss and subsequent regrowth of riparian vegetation and shading canopies.

Oregon↗

USGS2011

Monitoring landscape change for LANDFIRE using multi-temporal satellite imagery and ancillary data

LANDFIRE is a large interagency project designed to provide nationwide spatial data for fire management applications. As part of the effort, many 2000 vintage Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus data sets were used in conjunction with a large volume of field information to generate detailed vegetation type and structure data sets for the entire United States. In order to keep these data sets current and relevant to resource managers, there was strong need to develop an approach for updating these products. We are using three different approaches for these purposes. These include: 1) updating using Landsat-derived historic and current fire burn information derived from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity project; 2) incorporating vegetation disturbance information derived from time series Landsat data analysis using the Vegetation Change Tracker; and 3) developing data products that capture subtle intra-state disturbance such as those related to insects and disease using either Landsat or the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). While no one single approach provides all of the land cover change and update information required, we believe that a combination of all three captures most of the disturbance conditions taking place that have relevance to the fire community.

IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth O↗

USGS2012

Variance of discharge estimates sampled using acoustic Doppler current profilers from moving boats

This paper presents a model for quantifying the random errors (i.e., variance) of acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) discharge measurements from moving boats for different sampling times. The model focuses on the random processes in the sampled flow field and has been developed using statistical methods currently available for uncertainty analysis of velocity time series. Analysis of field data collected using ADCP from moving boats from three natural rivers of varying sizes and flow conditions shows that, even though the estimate of the integral time scale of the actual turbulent flow field is larger than the sampling interval, the integral time scale of the sampled flow field is on the order of the sampling interval. Thus, an equation for computing the variance error in discharge measurements associated with different sampling times, assuming uncorrelated flow fields is appropriate. The approach is used to help define optimal sampling strategies by choosing the exposure time required for ADCPs to accurately measure flow discharge.

Journal of Hydraulic Engineering↗

USGS2020

Versatile combustion-amalgamation technique for the photometric determination of mercury in fish and environmental samples

Total mercury in a variety of substances is determined rapidly and precisely by direct sample combustion, collection of released mercury by amalgamation, and photometric measurement of mercury volatilized from the heated amalgam. Up to 0.2 g fish tissue is heated in a stream of O 2 (1.2 L/min) for 3.5 min in 1 tube of a 2-tube induction furnace. The released mercury vapor and combustion products are carried by the stream of O 2 through a series of traps (6% NaOH scrubber, water condenser, and Mg(ClO 4 ) 2 drying tube) and the mercury is collected in a 10 mm diameter column of 24 gauge gold wire (8 g) cut into 3 mm lengths. The resulting amalgam is heated in the second tube of the induction furnace and the volatilized mercury is measured with a mercury vapor meter equipped with a recorder-integrator. Total analysis time is approximately 8 min/sample. The detection limit is less than 0.002 μ g and the system is easily converted for use with other biological materials, water, and sediments.

Journal of the Association of Official Analytical ↗

USGS2007

Methods to assess natural and anthropogenic thaw lake drainage on the western Arctic coastal plain of northern Alaska

Thousands of lakes are found on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska and northwestern Canada. Developed atop continuous permafrost, these thaw lakes and associated drained thaw lake basins are the dominant landscape elements and together cover 46% of the 34,570 km 2 western Arctic Coastal Plain (WACP). Lakes drain by a variety of episodic processes, including coastal erosion, stream meandering, and headward erosion, bank overtopping, and lake coalescence. Comparison of Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) imagery from the mid-1970s to Landsat 7 enhanced thematic mapper (ETM+) imagery from around 2000 shows that 50 lakes completely or partially drained over the approximately 25 year period, indicating landscape stability. The lake-specific drainage mechanism can be inferred in some cases and is partially dependant on geographic settings conducive to active erosion such as riparian and coastal zones. In many cases, however, the cause of drainage is unknown. The availability of high-resolution aerial photographs for the Barrow Peninsula extends the record back to circa 1950; mapping spatial time series illustrates the dynamic nature of lake expansion, coalescence, and drainage. Analysis of these historical images suggests that humans have intentionally or inadvertently triggered lake drainage near the village of Barrow. Efforts to understand landscape processes and identify events have been enhanced by interviewing Iñupiaq elders and others practicing traditional subsistence lifestyles. They can often identify the year and process by which individual lakes drained, thereby providing greater dating precision and accuracy in assessing the causal mechanism. Indigenous knowledge has provided insights into events, landforms, and processes not previously identified or considered.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

USGS1995

1995 annual report on Alaska's mineral resources

Section 1011 of the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (ANILCA) of 1980, as amended, requires that "On or before October 1, 1982, and annually thereafter, the President shall transmit to the Congress all pertinent public information relating to minerals in Alaska gathered by the United States Geological Surveys, United States Bureau of Mines, and any other Federal agency." This report has been prepared in response to that requirement. This circular is the fourteenth in the series of annual mineral reports mandated by the ANILCA. The report provides information about current Alaskan mineral projects and events during 1994; the emphasis is on Federal activity. The report addresses both onshore and offshore areas of Alaska. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Bureau of Mines (USBM), and Minerals Management Service (MMS) are the principal Federal agencies that publish information about energy and mineral resources in Alaska. Their reports and data form the basis for decisions by other Federal agencies regarding land use, access, environmental impacts, and mining claim evaluation. The time required for sample analysis, data synthesis, and publication is lengthy; as a result, scientific reports are generally issued a year or more after initial sample and data collection. Other sources of information for this report include additional Federal and State publications, trade and professional journals, presentations at public meetings and hearings, and press releases. Information is provided for two broad categories of minerals: energy resources and nonfuel-mineral resources.

Circular↗

USGS2014

Climatic and density influences on recruitment in an irruptive population of Roosevelt elk

Current paradigms of ungulate population ecology recognize that density-dependent and independent mechanisms are not always mutually exclusive. Long-term data sets are necessary to assess the relative strength of each mechanism, especially when populations display irruptive dynamics. Using an 18-year time series of population abundances of Roosevelt elk ( Cervus elaphus roosevelti ) inhabiting Redwood National Park in northwestern California we assessed the influence of population size and climatic variation on elk recruitment and whether irruptive dynamics occurred. An information-theoretic model selection analysis indicated that abundance lagged 2 years and neither climatic factors nor a mix of abundance and climatic factors influenced elk recruitment. However, density-dependent recruitment differed between when the population was declining and when the population increased and then stabilized at an abundance lower than at the start of the decline. The population displayed irruptive dynamics.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

USGS1998

Greenland Sea Odden sea ice feature: Intra-annual and interannual variability

The “Odden” is a large sea ice feature that forms in the east Greenland Sea that may protrude eastward to 5°E from the main sea ice pack (at about 8°W) between 73° and 77°N. It generally forms at the beginning of the winter season and can cover 300,000 km 2 . Throughout the winter the outer edge of the Odden may advance and retreat by several hundred kilometers on timescales of a few days to weeks. Satellite passive microwave observations from 1978 through 1995 provide a continuous record of the spatial and temporal variations of this extremely dynamic phenomenon. Aircraft synthetic aperture radar, satellite passive microwave, and ship observations in the Odden show that the Odden consists of new ice types, rather than older ice types advected eastward from the main pack. The 17-year record shows both strong interannual and intra-annual variations in Odden extent and temporal behavior. For example, in 1983 the Odden was weak, in 1984 the Odden did not occur, and in 1985 the Odden returned late in the season. An analysis of the ice area and extent time series derived from the satellite passive microwave observations along with meteorological data from the International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP) determined the meteorological forcing associated with Odden growth, maintenance, and decay. The key meteorological parameters that are related to the rapid ice formation and decay associated with the Odden are, in order of importance, air temperature, wind speed, and wind direction. Oceanographic parameters must play an important role in controlling Odden formation, but it is not yet possible to quantify this role because of a lack of long-term oceanographic observations.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

USGS2004

A methodology to asess relations between climatic variability and variations in hydrologic time series in the southwestern United States

A new method for frequency analysis of hydrologic time series was developed to facilitate the estimation and reconstruction of individual or groups of frequencies from hydrologic time-series and facilitate the comparison of these isolated time-series components across data types, between different hydrologic settings within a watershed, between watersheds, and across frequencies. While climate-related variations in inflow to and outflow from aquifers have often been neglected, the development and management of ground-water and surface-water resources has required the inclusion of the assessment of the effects of climatic variability on the supply and demand and sustainability of use. The regional assessment of climatic variability of surface-water and ground-water flow throughout the southwestern United States required this new systematic method of hydrologic time-series analysis. To demonstrate the application of this new method, six hydrologic time-series from the Mojave River Basin, California were analyzed. The results indicate that climatic variability exists in all the data types and are partially coincident with known climate cycles such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The time-series also indicate lagged correlations between tree-ring indices, streamflow, stream base flow, and ground-water levels. These correlations and reconstructed time-series can be used to better understand the relation of hydrologic response to climatic forcings and to facilitate the simulation of streamflow and ground-water recharge for a more realistic approach to water-resource management. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2002

Structure and flow-induced variability of the subtidal salinity field in northern San Francisco Bay

The structure of the salinity field in northern San Francisco Bay and how it is affected by freshwater flow are discussed. Two datasets are examined: the first is 23 years of daily salinity data taken by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation along the axis of northern San Francisco Bay; the second is a set of salinity transects taken by the U.S. Geological Survey between 1988 and 1993. Central to this paper is a measure of salinity intrusion, X 2 : the distance from the Golden Gate Bridge to where the bottom salinity is 2 psu. Using X 2 to scale distance, the authors find that for most flow conditions, the mean salinity distribution of the estuary is nearly self-similar with a salinity gradient in the center 70% of the region between the Golden Gate and X 2 that is proportional to X −1 2 . Analysis of covariability of Q and X 2 showed a characteristic timescale of adjustment of the salinity field of approximately 2 weeks. The steady-state response deduced from the X 2 time series implies that X 2 is proportional to riverflow to the 1/7 power. This relation, which differs from the standard 1/3 power dependence that is derived theoretically assuming constant exchange coefficients, shows that the upstream salt flux associated with gravitational circulation is more sensitive to the longitudinal salinity gradient than theory supposes. This is attributed to the strengthening of stratification caused by the stronger longitudinal salinity gradient that accompanies larger river flows.

California↗

USGS2008

A comparison of speciated atmospheric mercury at an urban center and an upwind rural location

Gaseous elemental mercury (GEM), particulate mercury (PHg) and reactive gaseous mercury (RGM) were measured every other hour at a rural location in south central Wisconsin (Devil's Lake State Park, WI, USA) between April 2003 and March 2004, and at a predominantly downwind urban site in southeastern Wisconsin (Milwaukee, WI, USA) between June 2004 and May 2005. Annual averages of GEM, PHg, and RGM at the urban site were statistically higher than those measured at the rural site. Pollution roses of GEM and reactive mercury (RM; sum of PHg and RGM) at the rural and urban sites revealed the influences of point source emissions in surrounding counties that were consistent with the US EPA 1999 National Emission Inventory and the 2003-2005 US EPA Toxics Release Inventory. Source-receptor relationships at both sites were studied by quantifying the impacts of point sources on mercury concentrations. Time series of GEM, PHg, and RGM concentrations were sorted into two categories; time periods dominated by impacts from point sources, and time periods dominated by mercury from non-point sources. The analysis revealed average point source contributions to GEM, PHg, and RGM concentration measurements to be significant over the year long studies. At the rural site, contributions to annual average concentrations were: GEM (2%; 0.04 ng m-3); and, RM (48%; 5.7 pg m-3). At the urban site, contributions to annual average concentrations were: GEM (33%; 0.81 ng m-3); and, RM (64%; 13.8 pg m-3). ?? The Royal Society of Chemistry.

Journal of Environmental Monitoring↗

USGS2014

Predictions of barrier island berm evolution in a time-varying storm climatology

Low-lying barrier islands are ubiquitous features of the world's coastlines, and the processes responsible for their formation, maintenance, and destruction are related to the evolution of smaller, superimposed features including sand dunes, beach berms, and sandbars. The barrier island and its superimposed features interact with oceanographic forces (e.g., overwash) and exchange sediment with each other and other parts of the barrier island system. These interactions are modulated by changes in storminess. An opportunity to study these interactions resulted from the placement and subsequent evolution of a 2 m high sand berm constructed along the northern Chandeleur Islands, LA. We show that observed berm length evolution is well predicted by a model that was fit to the observations by estimating two parameters describing the rate of berm length change. The model evaluates the probability and duration of berm overwash to predict episodic berm erosion. A constant berm length change rate is also predicted that persists even when there is no overwash. The analysis is extended to a 16 year time series that includes both intraannual and interannual variability of overwash events. This analysis predicts that as many as 10 or as few as 1 day of overwash conditions would be expected each year. And an increase in berm elevation from 2 m to 3.5 m above mean sea level would reduce the expected frequency of overwash events from 4 to just 0.5 event-days per year. This approach can be applied to understanding barrier island and berm evolution at other locations using past and future storm climatologies.

Louisiana↗