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USGS2016

Using thermal limits to assess establishment of fish dispersing to high-latitude and high-elevation watersheds

Distributional shifts of biota to higher latitudes and elevations are presumably influenced by species-specific physiological tolerances related to warming temperatures. However, it is establishment rather than dispersal that may be limiting colonizations in these cold frontier areas. In freshwater ecosystems, perennial groundwater springs provide critical winter thermal refugia in these extreme environments. By reconciling the thermal characteristics of these refugia with the minimum thermal tolerances of life stages critical for establishment, we develop a strategy to focus broad projections of northward and upward range shifts to the specific habitats that are likely for establishments. We evaluate this strategy using chum salmon ( Oncorhynchus keta ) and pink salmon ( Oncorhynchus gorbuscha ) that seem poised to colonize Arctic watersheds. Stream habitats with a minimum temperature of 4 °C during spawning and temperatures above 2 °C during egg incubation were most vulnerable to establishments by chum and pink salmon. This strategy will improve modelling forecasts of range shifts for cold freshwater habitats and focus proactive efforts to conserve both newly emerging fisheries and native species at northern and upper distributional extremes.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2014

Are large-scale flow experiments informing the science and management of freshwater ecosystems?

Greater scientific knowledge, changing societal values, and legislative mandates have emphasized the importance of implementing large-scale flow experiments (FEs) downstream of dams. We provide the first global assessment of FEs to evaluate their success in advancing science and informing management decisions. Systematic review of 113 FEs across 20 countries revealed that clear articulation of experimental objectives, while not universally practiced, was crucial for achieving management outcomes and changing dam-operating policies. Furthermore, changes to dam operations were three times less likely when FEs were conducted primarily for scientific purposes. Despite the recognized importance of riverine flow regimes, four-fifths of FEs involved only discrete flow events. Over three-quarters of FEs documented both abiotic and biotic outcomes, but only one-third examined multiple taxonomic responses, thus limiting how FE results can inform holistic dam management. Future FEs will present new opportunities to advance scientifically credible water policies.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2019

Late Quaternary vegetation development following deglaciation of northwestern Alexander Archipelago, Alaska

The Cordilleran Ice sheet covered most of southeastern Alaska during the Last Glacial Interval (LGI: Marine Isotope Stage 2). Ice began to recede from western Alexander Archipelago ~17,000 + 700 yr BP. In this study pollen analysis and radiocarbon dating of three sediment cores were used to reconstruct, for the first time, the postglacial development of vegetation of the northwestern Alexander Archipelago during the past ~15,240 cal yr. Hummingbird Lake (HL), on southwestern Baranof Island, yielded a sediment core with one of the longest dated records from southeastern Alaska. The earliest part of the HL pollen record (~15,240-14,040 yr BP) indicates that the earliest vegetation was pine (Pinus contorta subsp. contorta) parkland with willows (Salix), heaths (Ericaceae), sedges (Cyperaceae), grasses (Poaceae), herbs and ferns. Starting at ~14,040 yr BP, alder (Alnus) rapidly colonized the area as pine populations declined. By 11,400 yr BP, Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) colonized the area, and soon became the dominant conifer. Mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) also colonized the area by ~11,400 yr BP, followed by western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) at ~10,200 yr BP. By ~9200 yr BP, western hemlock had become the dominant species in the area. During the late Holocene yellow cedar (Chamaecyparis nootkatensis) became established. Two marine sediment cores were also analyzed for pollen, with the oldest core from Lower Sitka Sound, between Kruzof and Baranof Islands. The lower part of the core consists of interlayered tephras and freshwater lake muds that are estimated to be ~13,150 to 14,000 yr BP. Pollen evidence indicates that the early postglacial vegetation around Sitka Sound was pine parkland with alders and abundant ferns. Damage to vegetation around Sitka Sound by volcanic eruptions is suggested by abrupt, large shifts in alder and pine pollen, and fern spores in samples adjacent to tephra layers. A marine sediment core from Slocum Arm, a fjord on the western coast of Chichagof Island, has a basal age of ~10,000 yr BP. The pollen record is similar to the Holocene pollen record at Hummingbird Lake. The sequence of vegetation changes interpreted from the three northwestern Alexander Archipelago pollen records are similar to those from other well-dated sites in southeastern Alaska, although chronologies differ between sites.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

What’s It worth? Estimating the potential value of early warnings of cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms for managing freshwater reservoirs in Kansas, United States

Cyanobacterial blooms are an issue drawing increasing concern in freshwater lakes and reservoirs in the United States due to the real and sometimes perceived harms they can cause through cyanotoxin production or other effects. These types of blooms are often referred to as cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs). Cyanotoxin exposure can potentially lead to human health effects through recreation and consumption of drinking water and may impact fisheries, wildlife, domestic pets, and livestock. Characterizing the societal impacts of cyanotoxin production, exposure, and effects and estimating the potential value of information of an early warning system can inform and support freshwater lake and reservoir management decisions and future research directions. A Bayesian decision tree analysis was utilized to identify uses, users, and benefits of the information provided by this research. Specifically, the potential value related to a cyanoHAB early warning system, based on potential toxicity, was analyzed that would provide information two additional days earlier relative to cyanoHAB toxicity. The evaluation considers the application of this information for freshwater lake management - whether or not to post an advisory or warning to avoid recreational water contact. The model was parameterized with data from the state of Kansas and the value of avoided foregone recreation and avoided health effects was derived. The estimated annual value of information ranges between \$565 thousand to \$2.3 million (2018 United States Dollars (USD)) for the state of Kansas alone based on provided assumptions. The results demonstrate a lower bound of the value of a cyanoHAB early warning system and suggest additional research to understand how the use and value of this information could support research prioritization and further illustrate the return on research investment. This analysis does not incorporate the full suite of potential societal costs that may be associated with a cyanoHAB event such as drinking water treatment, impacts to irrigation, or power generation.

Kansas↗

USGS2020

Cryptic lives of conspicuous animals: Otolith chemistry chronicles life histories of coastal lagoon fishes

Bar-built coastal lagoons are dynamic ecosystems at the land-sea interface that are important habitats for a variety of species. This study examined the habitat ecology of two lagoon species, the endangered Tidewater Goby ( Eucyclogobius newberryi ) and the Prickly Sculpin ( Cottus asper ) by reconstructing individual life histories from patterns in the concentration of the element Sr (as ratioed to Ca; Sr:Ca) in otoliths. Specific objectives were to (1) elucidate any movements of individual fishes among three primary habitat components of typical bar-built lagoon systems: coastal ocean, brackish lagoon, and freshwater watershed streams, and (2) determine if either species exhibited a consistent life history as defined by a stereotypical otolith Sr:Ca chronology, which could be indicative of a consistent range of salinity or temperature occupied through ontogeny. Results suggested that Tidewater Goby was a lagoon resident and that Prickly Sculpin exhibited migrations between lagoon and watershed stream habitats. There was no strong evidence in either species of ocean occupancy or of a stereotypical Sr:Ca chronology, the latter suggesting the full range of available lagoon habitat in terms of salinity and temperature was likely utilized at all life stages. These findings add to the body of evidence that bar-built lagoons are not isolated habitats, and holistic management of these habitats with adjoining watershed and marine environments could increase habitat connectivity across the landscape, with potential benefits to fishes.

California↗

USGS2020

Reassessing particulate organic carbon dynamics in the highly disturbed San Francisco Bay Estuary

Environmental research has been shifting toward a new normal in which a primary focus is to capture change that may be accelerating. In this study, we collected particulate samples in the northern San Francisco Bay Estuary (SFBE) in the fall of 2011 through the spring of 2012 in order to assess vascular plant contributions across both time and space and to compare our findings with a similar set of samples from 1990 to 1992. Across the ∼20-year span, we detected (1) decreasing C:N a ratios (averages ± SD of 12.5 ± 2.5 vs. 8.8 ± 1.4, significant t -test with p < 0.0001); (2) distinct shifts in chlorophyll vs. salinity, with higher chlorophyll concentrations shifting toward freshwater; and (3) greater relative proportions of vascular plant carbon that also appears less degraded (as indicated by lignin measurements) shifting from freshwater toward higher salinities. Lignin compositional data (syringyl:vanillyl and cinnamyl:vanillyl) suggest that increased lignin content in the more saline samples could be derived from wetland materials, while a two-endmember mixing model indicates that a significant portion of the particulate organic carbon (POC) in the western sites (50–60% as an upper bound, 13–15% as a lower bound) could be wetland-derived. This has potential implications for the lower food web, given recent work that demonstrates selective feeding by copepods on wetland detrital material in the northern SFBE. The latter has ramifications for proposed wetland restoration within the SFBE and Sacramento River/San Joaquin River Delta system, namely, that restored wetlands could confer important benefits toward the food web. Equally important is to prioritize continued monitoring of particulate organic matter cycling in the SFBE system to make sure that changing conditions are accounted for in any management decision.

California↗

USGS2024

Applying portfolio theory to benefit endangered amphibians in coastal wetlands threatened by climate change, high uncertainty, and significant investment risk

The challenge of selecting strategies to adapt to climate change is complicated by the presence of irreducible uncertainties regarding future conditions. Decisions regarding long-term investments in conservation actions contain significant risk of failure due to these inherent uncertainties. To address this challenge, decision makers need an arsenal of sophisticated but practical tools to help guide spatial conservation strategies. Theory asserts that managing risks can be achieved by diversifying an investment portfolio to include assets – such as stocks and bonds – that respond inversely to one another under a given set of conditions. We demonstrate an approach for formalizing the diversification of conservation assets (land parcels) and actions (restoration, species reintroductions) by using correlation structure to quantify the degree of risk for any proposed management investment. We illustrate a framework for identifying future habitat refugia by integrating species distribution modeling, scenarios of climate change and sea level rise, and impacts to critical habitat. Using the plains coqui ( Eleutherodactylus juanariveroi ), an endangered amphibian known from only three small wetland populations on Puerto Rico’s coastal plains, we evaluate the distribution of potential refugia under two model parameterizations and four future sea-level rise scenarios. We then apply portfolio theory using two distinct objective functions and eight budget levels to inform investment strategies for mitigating risk and increasing species persistence probability. Models project scenario-specific declines in coastal freshwater wetlands from 2% to nearly 30% and concurrent expansions of transitional marsh and estuarine open water. Conditional on the scenario, island-wide species distribution is predicted to contract by 25% to 90%. Optimal portfolios under the first objective function – benefit maximization – emphasizes translocating frogs to existing protected areas rather than investing in the protection of new habitat. Alternatively, optimal strategies using the second objective function – a risk-benefit tradeoff framework – include significant investment to protect parcels for the purpose of reintroduction or establishing new populations. These findings suggest that leveraging existing protected areas for species persistence, while less costly, may contain excessive risk and could result in diminished conservation benefits. Although our modeling includes numerous assumptions and simplifications, we believe this framework provides useful inference for exploring resource dynamics and developing robust adaptation strategies using an approach that is generalizable to other conservation problems which are spatial or portfolio in nature and subject to unresolvable uncertainty.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2022

An assessment of future tidal marsh resilience in the San Francisco Estuary through modeling and quantifiable metrics of sustainability

Quantitative, broadly applicable metrics of resilience are needed to effectively manage tidal marshes into the future. Here we quantified three metrics of temporal marsh resilience: time to marsh drowning, time to marsh tipping point, and the probability of a regime shift, defined as the conditional probability of a transition to an alternative super-optimal, suboptimal, or drowned state. We used organic matter content (loss on ignition, LOI) and peat age combined with the Coastal Wetland Equilibrium Model (CWEM) to track wetland development and resilience under different sea-level rise scenarios in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) of California. A 100-year hindcast of the model showed excellent agreement ( R 2 = 0.96) between observed (2.86 mm/year) and predicted vertical accretion rates (2.98 mm/year) and correctly predicted a recovery in LOI ( R 2 = 0.76) after the California Gold Rush. Vertical accretion in the tidal freshwater marshes of the Delta is dominated by organic production. The large elevation range of the vegetation combined with high relative marsh elevation provides Delta marshes with resilience and elevation capital sufficiently great to tolerate centenary sea-level rise (CLSR) as high as 200 cm. The initial relative elevation of a marsh was a strong determinant of marsh survival time and tipping point. For a Delta marsh of average elevation, the tipping point at which vertical accretion no longer keeps up with the rate of sea-level rise is 50 years or more. Simulated, triennial additions of 6 mm of sediment via episodic atmospheric rivers increased the proportion of marshes surviving from 51% to 72% and decreased the proportion drowning from 49% to 28%. Our temporal metrics provide critical time frames for adaptively managing marshes, restoring marshes with the best chance of survival, and seizing opportunities for establishing migration corridors, which are all essential for safeguarding future habitats for sensitive species.

California↗

USGS2019

One hundred pressing questions on the future of global fish migration science, conservation, and policy

Migration is a widespread but highly diverse component of many animal life histories. Fish migrate throughout the world's oceans, within lakes and rivers, and between the two realms, transporting matter, energy, and other species (e.g., microbes) across boundaries. Migration is therefore a process responsible for myriad ecosystem services. Many human populations depend on the presence of predictable migrations of fish for their subsistence and livelihoods. Although much research has focused on fish migration, many questions remain in our rapidly changing world. We assembled a diverse team of fundamental and applied scientists who study fish migrations in marine and freshwater environments to identify pressing unanswered questions. Our exercise revealed questions within themes related to understanding the migrating individual's internal state, navigational mechanisms, locomotor capabilities, external drivers of migration, the threats confronting migratory fish including climate change, and the role of migration. In addition, we identified key requirements for aquatic animal management, restoration, policy, and governance. Lessons revealed included the difficulties in generalizing among species and populations, and in understanding the levels of connectivity facilitated by migrating fishes. We conclude by identifying priority research needed for assuring a sustainable future for migratory fishes.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2023

A prioritization protocol for coastal wetland restoration on Molokaʻi, Hawaiʻi

Hawaiian coastal wetlands provide important habitat for federally endangered waterbirds and socio-cultural resources for Native Hawaiians. Currently, Hawaiian coastal wetlands are degraded by development, sedimentation, and invasive species and, thus, require restoration. Little is known about their original structure and function due to the large-scale alteration of the lowland landscape since European contact. Here, we used 1) rapid field assessments of hydrology, vegetation, soils, and birds, 2) a comprehensive analysis of endangered bird habitat value, 3) site spatial characteristics, 4) sea-level rise projections for 2050 and 2100 and wetland migration potential, and 5) preferences of the Native Hawaiian community in a GIS site suitability analysis to prioritize restoration of coastal wetlands on the island of Molokaʻi. The site suitability analysis is the first, to our knowledge, to incorporate community preferences, habitat criteria for endangered waterbirds, and sea-level rise into prioritizing wetland sites for restoration. The rapid assessments showed that groundwater is a ubiquitous water source for coastal wetlands. A groundwater-fed, freshwater herbaceous peatland or “coastal fen” not previously described in Hawaiʻi was found adjacent to the coastline at a site being used to grow taro, a staple crop for Native Hawaiians. In traditional ecological knowledge, such a groundwater-fed, agro-ecological system is referred to as a loʻipūnāwai (spring pond). Overall, 39 plant species were found at the 12 sites; 26 of these were wetland species and 11 were native. Soil texture in the wetlands ranged from loamy sands to silt and silty clays and the mean % organic carbon content was 10.93% ± 12.24 (sd). In total, 79 federally endangered waterbirds, 13 Hawaiian coots (‘alae keʻokeʻo; Fulica alai ) and 66 Hawaiian stilts (aeʻo; Himantopus mexicanus knudseni ), were counted during the rapid field assessments. The site suitability analysis consistently ranked three sites the highest, Kaupapaloʻi o Kaʻamola, Kakahaiʻa National Wildlife Refuge, and ʻŌhiʻapilo Pond, under three different weighting approaches. Site prioritization represents both an actionable plan for coastal wetland restoration and an alternative protocol for restoration decision-making in places such as Hawaiʻi where no pristine “reference” sites exist for comparison.

Hawaii↗

USGS2022

Expert perspectives on global biodiversity loss and its drivers and impacts on people

Despite substantial progress in understanding global biodiversity loss, major taxonomic and geographic knowledge gaps remain. Decision makers often rely on expert judgement to fill knowledge gaps, but are rarely able to engage with sufficiently large and diverse groups of specialists. To improve understanding of the perspectives of thousands of biodiversity experts worldwide, we conducted a survey and asked experts to focus on the taxa and freshwater, terrestrial, or marine ecosystem with which they are most familiar. We found several points of overwhelming consensus (for instance, multiple drivers of biodiversity loss interact synergistically) and important demographic and geographic differences in specialists’ perspectives and estimates. Experts from groups that are underrepresented in biodiversity science, including women and those from the Global South, recommended different priorities for conservation solutions, with less emphasis on acquiring new protected areas, and provided higher estimates of biodiversity loss and its impacts. This may in part be because they disproportionately study the most highly threatened taxa and habitats.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2022

Modeling functional flows in California rivers

Environmental flows are critical to the recovery and conservation of freshwater ecosystems worldwide. However, estimating desired ranges of environmental flows across large, diverse landscapes is challenging. To advance protections of environmental flows for streams in California, USA, we developed a statewide modeling approach focused on functional components of the natural flow regime. Functional flow components in California streams—fall pulse flows, wet season peak flows and base flows, the spring flow recession, and dry season baseflows—support essential physical and ecological processes in riverine ecosystems. These functional flow components can be represented by functional flow metrics (FFMs) and quantified by their magnitude, timing, frequency, duration, and rate-of-change from daily streamflow records. After quantifying FFMs at reference-quality streamflow gages in California, we used machine-learning methods to estimate their natural range of values for all stream reaches in the state based on physical watershed characteristics and climatic factors. We found that the models performed well in predicting FFMs in streams across a diversity of landscape and climate contexts, according to several model performance criteria. Using the predicted FFM values, we established initial estimates of ecological flows that are expected to support critical functions and are broadly protective of ecosystem health. Modeling functional flows statewide offers a pathway for increasing the pace and scale of environmental flow protections in California and beyond.

California↗

USGS2023

Vulnerability to climate change of managed stocks in the California Current large marine ecosystem

Introduction: Understanding how abundance, productivity and distribution of individual species may respond to climate change is a critical first step towards anticipating alterations in marine ecosystem structure and function, as well as developing strategies to adapt to the full range of potential changes. Methods: This study applies the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Fisheries Climate Vulnerability Assessment method to 64 federally-managed species in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem to assess their vulnerability to climate change, where vulnerability is a function of a species’ exposure to environmental change and its biological sensitivity to a set of environmental conditions, which includes components of its resiliency and adaptive capacity to respond to these new conditions. Results: Overall, two-thirds of the species were judged to have Moderate or greater vulnerability to climate change, and only one species was anticipated to have a positive response. Species classified as Highly or Very Highly vulnerable share one or more characteristics including: 1) having complex life histories that utilize a wide range of freshwater and marine habitats; 2) having habitat specialization, particularly for areas that are likely to experience increased hypoxia; 3) having long lifespans and low population growth rates; and/or 4) being of high commercial value combined with impacts from non-climate stressors such as anthropogenic habitat degradation. Species with Low or Moderate vulnerability are either habitat generalists, occupy deep-water habitats or are highly mobile and likely to shift their ranges. Discussion: As climate-related changes intensify, this work provides key information for both scientists and managers as they address the long-term sustainability of fisheries in the region. This information can inform near-term advice for prioritizing species-level data collection and research on climate impacts, help managers to determine when and where a precautionary approach might be warranted, in harvest or other management decisions, and help identify habitats or life history stages that might be especially effective to protect or restore.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2020

Incorporating established conservation networks into freshwater conservation planning results in more workable prioritizations

Resources for addressing stream fish conservation issues are often limited and the stressors impacting fish continue to increase, so decision makers often rely on tools to prioritize locations for conservation actions. Because conservation networks already exist in many areas, incorporating these into the planning process can increase the ability of decision makers to carry out management actions. In this study we aim to identify priority areas within established networks to provide an approach which allows managers to focus efforts on the most valuable areas they control, while identifying areas outside of the network, which support species with minimal representation within the network, for acquisition or conservation partnerships. The goal of this approach is to prioritize sites to achieve high levels of species representation while also developing workable solutions. We applied a methodology incorporating established networks into a systematic conservation planning process for fish in temperate wadeable streams located in Missouri, USA. We compared how well species were represented in our approach with two commonly used alternatives: A blank slate approach which used the same systematic conservation planning technique but did not incorporate established networks, and a habitat integrity approach based solely on anthropogenic threat data. Relative to the blank slate approach, our approach required 210% more segments for representation of all species, and contained an average of 0.5 additional occurrences for the least well-represented species. Although the blank slate solution was more efficient in achieving species representation, 77% of segments in this solution were not already protected. This would likely pose a challenge for implementing conservation actions. Relative to habitat integrity-based priorities, our approach required only 38% of the number of stream segments to achieve representation of all species and contained an average of 5 additional occurrences of the least represented species, representing a substantial gain in representation. Incorporating established networks may allow managers to focus resources on areas with the greatest conservation value within established networks and to identify the most valuable areas complementary to the established networks, resulting in priorities which may be more actionable and effective than those developed by alternative approaches.

Missouri↗

USGS2023

Land development and road salt usage drive long-term changes in major-ion chemistry of streamwater in six exurban and suburban watersheds, southeastern Pennsylvania, 1999-2019

In urbanized areas, the “freshwater salinization syndrome” (FSS), which pertains to long-term increases in concentrations of major ions and metals in fresh surface waters, has been attributed to road salt application. In addition to FSS, the water composition changes as an influx of sodium (Na + ) in recharge may displace calcium (Ca 2+ ), magnesium (Mg 2+ ), potassium (K + ), and trace metals by reverse cation exchange. These changing ion fluxes can result in adverse impacts on groundwater and surface waters used for municipal supplies. Few datasets exist to quantify the FSS on a watershed scale or link its manifestation to potential controlling factors such as changes in urban development, land use/land cover (LULC), or wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) discharges in upstream areas. Here, we use two decades (1999–2019) of monthly streamwater quality data combined with daily streamflow for six exurban and suburban watersheds in southeastern Pennsylvania to examine the relations among Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , K + , Na + , chloride (Cl − ), sulfate (SO 4 2- ), and alkalinity (HCO 3 − ) concentrations and upstream controlling factors. Flow-normalized annual and baseflow (August ̶ November) concentrations for Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , Na + , and Cl − increased in all six watersheds over the 20-year study, providing evidence of FSS’s impacts on groundwater that sustains streamflow. Additionally, a redundancy analysis using 2019 flow-normalized values identified the following positive associations between solute concentrations and controlling variables: 1) Cl − , Mg 2+ , and Ca 2+ with impervious surface cover (ISC), 2) Na + and SO 4 2- with ISC and total WWTP discharge volume, and 3) HCO 3 − with agriculture and total WWTP discharge volume. From a human health perspective, 2019 flow-normalized Na + concentrations exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s 20 mg L -1 threshold for individuals restricted to a low sodium diet. Furthermore, indices used to evaluate the corrosivity of source waters to drinking water infrastructure and inform municipal water treatment practices, such as the Chloride to Sulfate Mass Ratio and Larson Ratio, increased between two- and seven-fold over the 20-year time. Collectively, the results elucidate the causal factors of the FSS in suburban and exurban watersheds and its potential impacts on human health and drinking water infrastructure.

Pennsylvania↗