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At least 343 records · Page 19Linked to original sources

USGS2021

Using satellite imagery to estimate consumptive water use from irrigated lands in the Milk River Basin, United States and Canada

The U.S. Geological Survey, with the support of the International Joint Commission, and in cooperation with Alberta Environment and Parks, Blackfeet Nation, Environment and Climate Change Canada, and Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, is leading a project that should improve information available to apportion water between Canada and the United States in the St. Mary and Milk River Basins. One component of the water budget, consumptive use of irrigation water (the amount of supplemental water used by crops), can be estimated at 100-meter resolution almost every week using imagery recorded by satellites from 1985 to present (2021) and weather data, when conditions permit. Better estimates of consumptive water use should improve understanding of water availability and use in the basin and should assist with water apportionment procedures.

Alberta, Montana, Saskatchewan↗

USGS2012

Nature's Notebook 2011: Data & participant summary

Introduction The USA National Phenology Network The USA National Phenology Network (USA‐NPN; www.usanpn.org) seeks to engage a diverse range of citizen scientist volunteers, federal, state, and non‐governmental organizations, educators and professional research scientists to collect phenological observations of plants and animals using consistent standards and to contribute their observations to a national data repository. To guide this effort, the USA‐NPN National Coordinating Office (NCO), based in Tucson, Arizona, implemented an online monitoring program for plants and animals, Nature's Notebook , and has developed phenology monitoring protocols and an information management system, which includes the National Phenology Database (NPDb). We are developing a diversity of materials, tools, techniques, and protocols to assist decision making and education related to ecology, wildlife, human health, ecosystem services, natural resource management, biological conservation, and climate change adaptation.

USA-NPN Technical Series↗

USGS1983

Trends in ground-water levels in Wisconsin through 1981

Hydrographs of ground-water levels in Wisconsin display fluctuations in the potentiometric surface of confined and unconfined aquifers. The graphs are plotted from periodic (weekly or monthly) measurements and from continuous recording gage records. Two hundred and ten hydrographs having periods of record of at least 5 years between 1934 and 1981 are included. The water-level changes shown represent both natural fluctuations reflecting climatic control and declines or recovery brought about by pumping or cessation of pumping of ground water.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2018

Effects of land use on summer thermal regimes in critical salmonid habitats of the Pacific Northwest

The effect of climate change on stream temperature regimes is of significant concern to natural resource managers focused on protecting cold-water-dependent species. Nevertheless, understanding of how human land-use activities may act to exacerbate the effects of climate change on stream temperature regimes is limited. Using extensive stream temperature data with high-resolution climate and habitat data, we quantified how land management activities are related to summer stream temperatures across the Pacific Northwest, USA. We then described the distribution of land management practices influencing summer thermal regimes relative to the distribution of salmonid fish species of conservation concern. After accounting for climatic and geophysical variation, we detected a strong relationship between livestock grazing and summer thermal regimes. Maximum, average, and diel variation in water temperature was greater where livestock grazing was present. Livestock grazing was widespread, occurring in 43%–100% of sites supporting salmonid species of conservation concern. Thus, current land management practices may be intensifying the effects of ongoing climate change in freshwater habitats, acting to further threaten cold-water fishes of conservation concern.

Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana↗

USGS2021

Dynamic Energy Budget modelling to predict eastern oyster growth, reproduction, and mortality under river management and climate change scenarios

Eastern oysters growing in deltaic Louisiana estuaries in the northern Gulf of Mexico must tolerate considerable salinity variation from natural climate variability (e.g., rainfall and stream run-off pushing isohalines offshore; tropical storms pushing isohalines inshore) and man-made diversions and siphons releasing freshwater from the Mississippi River. These salinity variations are predicted to increase with future climate change because of the increased frequency of stronger storms and also in response to proposed large-scale river diversions. Increased Mississippi River flow into coastal estuaries from river diversions, along with potential changes in rainfall and stream run-off from climate change will alter spatial and temporal salinity patterns. In this study we used an individual Dynamic Energy Budget model to predict growth and reproductive potential of eastern oysters across observed and simulated salinity gradients corresponding to different climate and river management scenarios. We used validated model outputs of salinity from a coupled hydrology-hydrodynamic model to assess the current impacts of Davis Pond diversion discharge on oysters located downstream. Under a high diversion discharge scenario oyster growth potential was reduced by 9%, 4%, and 1% in Upper, Mid, and Lower Bay locations, respectively, as compared to a limited discharge year. Reproductive outputs decreased by 34% and 2% in the Upper and Lower Bay locations, respectively, and increased by 2% at the Mid Bay site. In scenarios combining predicted increased temperature with the effect of diversions, all oysters located in the Upper and Mid Bay sites died due to severe summer conditions (high temperatures combined with low salinity). Overall, oysters in down-estuary locations, influenced by both estuarine river management and gulf conditions demonstrated significant tolerance to changing salinity and temperature conditions from diversions alone and when combined with climate change. In contrast, oysters located up-estuary, and exposed to more extreme salinity impacts from river management, demonstrated potentially lethal impacts through direct mortality, and reduced sustainability through decrease in reproductive effort. These predictions at the individual level may translate into less sustainable populations in the most extreme scenarios; restoration and production plans would benefit from accounting for these impacts on reproductive output particularly as decision makers seek to restore critical oyster areas.

Louisiana↗

USGS2015

Climate change and wildfire risk in an expanding wildland–urban interface: a case study from the Colorado Front Range Corridor

Context Wildfire is a particular concern in the wildland–urban interface (WUI) of the western United States where human development occurs close to flammable natural vegetation. Objectives (1) Assess the relative influences of WUI expansion versus climate-driven fire regime change on spatial and temporal patterns of burned WUI, and (2) determine whether WUI developed in the future will have higher or lower wildfire risk than existing WUI. Methods We projected the spatial pattern of the WUI and its associated wildfire risk from 2005 to 2050 at 90-m spatial resolution and 5-year intervals in Colorado Front Range using CHANGE, a landscape change model that simulates land cover and land use change, natural vegetation dynamics, and wildfire in a unified framework. A total of four scenarios from a factorial design with static versus changing WUI and static versus changing fire regimes were simulated to examine the effects of WUI expansion and climate-driven fire regime change on burned area in the WUI. Results Both WUI expansion and fire regime change contributed to the increase of burned WUI, but fire regime change had a stronger influence. The effects of WUI expansion and fire regime change had a combined influence greater than the sum of their individual effects. This interaction was a result of projected WUI expansion into regions of higher wildfire risk than existing WUI. Conclusions The human footprint will continue to expand into wildland areas and must be considered along with climate effects when assessing the impacts of changing fire regimes in future landscapes.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2013

U.S. Geological Survey climate and land use change science strategy—A framework for understanding and responding to global change

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a nonregulatory Federal science agency with national scope and responsibilities, is uniquely positioned to serve the Nation’s needs in understanding and responding to global change, including changes in climate, water availability, sea level, land use and land cover, ecosystems, and global biogeochemical cycles. Global change is among the most challenging and formidable issues confronting our Nation and society. Scientists agree that global environmental changes during this century will have far-reaching societal implications (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007; U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009). In the face of these challenges, the Nation can benefit greatly by using natural science information in decisionmaking. Since the passage of the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990, the USGS has made substantial scientific contributions to understanding the interactive living and nonliving components of the Earth system. USGS natural science activities have led to fundamental advances in observing and understanding climate and land-cover change and the effects these changes have on ecosystems, natural-resource availability, and societal sustainability. Most of these major advances were pursued in partnership with other organizations within and outside the Department of the Interior. The inherent value of partnerships with other U.S. Global Change Research Program agencies and natural-resource managers is emphasized in all aspects of the planning and implementation of this Science Strategy for the coming decade. Over the next 10 years, the USGS will make substantial contributions to understanding how Earth systems interact, respond to, and cause global change. The USGS will work with science partners, decisionmakers, and resource managers at local to international levels (including Native American tribes) to improve understanding of past and present change; develop relevant forecasts; and identify those lands, resources, and communities most vulnerable to global change processes. Science will play an essential role in helping communities and land and resource managers understand local to global implications, anticipate effects, prepare for changes, and reduce the risks associated with decisionmaking in a changing environment. USGS partners and stakeholders will benefit from the data, predictive models, and decision-support products and services resulting from the implementation of this strategy. This Science Strategy recognizes core USGS strengths that are applied to key societal problems. It establishes seven goals for USGS global change science and strategic actions that may be implemented in the short term (1–5 years) and the longer term (5–10 years) to improve our understanding of the following areas of inquiry: Rates, causes, and impacts of past global changes; The global carbon cycle; Biogeochemical cycles and their coupled interactions; Land-use and land-cover change rates, causes, and consequences; Droughts, floods, and water availability under changing land-use and climatic conditions; Coastal response to sea-level rise, climatic change, and human development; and Biological responses to global change. In addition to the seven thematic goals, we address the central role of monitoring in accordance with the USGS Science Strategy recommendation that global change research should rely on existing “…decades of observational data and long-term records to interpret consequences of climate variability and change to the Nation’s biological populations, ecosystems, and land and water resources” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007, p. 19). We also briefly describe specific needs and opportunities for coordinating USGS global change science among USGS Mission Areas and address the need for a comprehensive and sustained communications strategy.

Circular↗

USGS2023

Identifying drivers of population dynamics for a stream breeding amphibian using time series of egg mass counts

The decline in amphibian populations is one of the starkest examples of the biodiversity crisis. For stream breeding amphibians, alterations to natural flow regimes by dams, water diversions, and climate change have been implicated in declines and extirpations. Identifying drivers of amphibian declines requires long time series of abundance data because amphibian populations can exhibit high natural variability. Multiple population viability analysis (MPVA) models integrate abundance data and share information from different populations to estimate how environmental factors influence population growth. Flow alteration has been linked to declines and extirpations in the Foothill Yellow-legged Frog ( Rana boylii ), a stream breeding amphibian native to California and Oregon. To date, no study has jointly analyzed abundance data from populations throughout the range of R. boylii in an MPVA model. We compiled time series of egg mass counts (an index of adult female abundance) from R. boylii populations in 36 focal streams and fit an MPVA model to quantify how streamflow metrics, stream temperature, and surrounding land cover affect population growth. We found population growth was positively related to stream temperature and was higher in the years following a wet year with high total annual streamflow. Density dependence was weakest (i.e., carrying capacity was highest) for streams with high seasonality of streamflow and intermediate rates of change in streamflow during spring. Our results highlight how altered streamflow can further increase the risk of decline for R. boylii populations. Managing stream conditions to better match natural flow and thermal regimes would benefit the conservation of R. boylii populations.

California, Oregon↗

USGS2022

Physiological and nutritional constraints on zooplankton productivity due to eutrophication and climate change predicted using a resource-based modeling approach

Emerging evidence suggests that zooplankton production is affected by physiological and nutritional constraints due to climate change and eutrophication, which in turn could have broad implications for food-web dynamics and fisheries production. In this study, we developed a resource-based zooplankton production dynamics model that causally links freshwater cladoceran and copepod daily production-to-biomass (P/B) ratios with water temperature, phytoplankton biomass and community composition, and zooplankton feeding selectivity. This model was used to evaluate constraints on zooplankton growth under four hypothetical scenarios: involving natural plankton community seasonal succession; lake fertilization to enhance fisheries production; eutrophication; and climatic warming. Our novel modeling approach predicts zooplankton production is strongly dependent on seasonal variation in resource availability and quality, which results in more complex zooplankton dynamics than predicted by simpler temperature dependent models. For mesotrophic and hypereutrophic lakes, our study suggests that the ultimate control over zooplankton P/B ratios shifts from physiological control during colder periods to strong resource control during warmer periods. Our resource-based model provided important insights into the nature of biophysical control of zooplankton under a changing climate that has crucial implications for food web energy transfer and fisheries production.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2016

Moving from awareness to action: Advancing climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning for Idaho and Montana National Forests

The rugged landscapes of northern Idaho and western Montana support biodiverse ecosystems, and provide a variety of natural resources and services for human communities. However, the benefits provided by these ecosystems may be at risk as changing climate magnifies existing stressors and allows new stressors to emerge. Preparation for and response to these potential changes can be most effectively addressed through multi-stakeholder partnerships, evaluating vulnerability of important resources to climate change, and developing response and preparation strategies for managing key natural resources in a changing world. This project will support climate-smart conservation and management across forests of northern Idaho and western Montana through three main components: (1) fostering partnerships among scientists, land managers, regional landowners, conservation practitioners, and the public; (2) assessing the vulnerability of a suite of regionally important resources to climate change and other stressors; and (3) creating a portfolio of adaptation strategies and actions to help resource managers prepare for and respond to the likely impacts of climate change. The results of this project will be used to inform the upcoming land management plan revisions for national forests, helping ensure that the most effective and robust conservation and management strategies are implemented to preserve our natural resources.

Idaho, Montana↗

USGS2007

Climate Change Research at USGS Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS)

Research and development projects at EROS apply unique resources to support the USGS mission of developing understanding, monitoring, and modeling of climate variability and change and their human, physical, and biological impacts. Remote sensing resources, both new and archived, form the core of our ability to determine changes in the state or condition of the Earth’s surface and its dynamic landscape and ecosystem processes. This rich resource provides powerful biophysical information for local to global areas. Archival data form the basis for assessing human and climate impacts on the land surface, trends of land use, and an understanding of climate and management impacts. Biophysical information from satellite data is assimilated into quantitative models that allow all disciplines of the USGS to understand impacts on ecosystem processes. Major processes and problems we address include: carbon fluxes, hydrological processes, albedo changes and regional climates, mangroves and wetland protection of coastal environments, natural and manmade hazards (e.g., fire and drought), ecosystem change and succession, land use and land cover change, and more. The integration of remote sensing, modeling, and multidisciplinary approaches fosters international scientific leadership across all disciplines for the USGS.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2004

Pocomoke Sound Sedimentary and Ecosystem History

Summary of Results: Pocomoke Sound Sediment and Sediment Processes Transport of sediment from coastal marshes. Analyses of pollen and foraminifera from surface sediments in Pocomoke Sound suggest that neither the upstream forested wetlands nor coastal marshes bordering the sound have contributed appreciably to particulate matter in the 10- to 1000-micron size range that is currently being deposited in the sound. Sediment processes derived from short-lived isotope. Analyses of beryllium-7, cesium-137 and lead-210 and redox sensitive elements from Pocomoke sediments showed that there has been a significant increase in anthropogenic elements since the late 1940's when the Delmarva Peninsula became more accessible from the Baltimore-Washington region. Cesium-137 was found to be a useful tool to determine changes in sedimentation within the system. Three major stages of sedimentation occurred. Before 1950, the system was equilibrium with the agriculture activity in the watershed, whereas urbanization and agricultural activity changes during and immediately preceding World War II resulted in increased sediment flux. Around 1970, the sediment flux diminished and there was an apparent increase in bank erosion sediment to the deeper parts of the system. Rates of sediment deposition. Radiocarbon, lead-210, and pollen dating of sediment cores from Pocomoke Sound indicate relatively continuous deposition of fine-grained sediments in the main Pocomoke channel at > ~7 m water depths. Mean sediment accumulation rates during the past few centuries were relatively high (>1 cm yr -1 ). The ages of coarser-grained sediments (sands) blanketing the shallow (< ~ 7 m water depth) flanks of Pocomoke Sound are not well constrained but were probably deposited discontinuously. Impacts of land-use on benthic biota. The Pocomoke Sound paleoecological record shows that in the 1940-50s and again in the 1970-80s, the sound experienced unprecedented changes in the benthic assemblages of both ostracodes and foraminifera that can be attributed to degradation in water quality. These changes represent perturbations to the natural variability in faunal assemblages, which are normally driven by climatically influenced changes in salinity regimes. Changes in 20th century benthic communities were characterized by the rise to dominance of facultative anaerobic taxa tolerant of hypoxia and detrital-feeding species, reflecting increased influx of organic matter, and perhaps greater turbidity. Results support the hypothesis of Orth et al. (2002) and Orth and Moore (1983) that unprecedented changes to the bay ecosystem affected submerged aquatic vegetation in the Tangiers-Pocomoke region prior to large-scale monitoring began in the 1970s and 80s. Comparison of Pocomoke paleoecological record with those from the mainstem bay indicate that environmental degradation during the 20th century was nearly synchronous bay-wide within the limits of sediment core chronology (10-20 years). Stable isotopic evidence for decadal water quality changes. Stable isotopic records from benthic foraminifera in Pocomoke Sound sediment cores, especially oxygen isotopes, document regional decadal and centennial climate processes which influence salinity and water quality over the past few centuries. These results provide indirect evidence for discharge-driven changes in freshwater and presumably river-borne sediment from the watershed to the sound. They are consistent with studies in the mainstem indicating the important influence of climatic and hydrological processes on water quality. Pollen evidence for high sedimentation and vegetation change during colonial land clearance. Pollen assemblages from sediment cores in Pocomoke Sound document high sedimentation rates (0.7->4.0 cm yr -1 ) at most sites throughout the Sound in post-Colonial time. These results confirm those from other regions of the bay that land-clearance increased the flux of river-borne sediment to certain r

Open-File Report↗

USGS2014

Disentangling the effects of climate and landscape change on bird population trends in the western U.S. and Canada

Changes in climate are often assumed result in changes to species’ ranges, with potential impacts on natural system functioning and ecosystem services. ‘Climate envelope models’, which rely on correlations between climate and species distributions, have been used to predict the future of biodiversity under these assumptions. However, other factors including land-cover, dispersal ability and interspecific competition and facilitation may play an important role in driving species distributions and population trends either alone or in combination with climate. In an ongoing project, we used long-term data on bird distributions and abundance to develop climate envelope and land-use models for 161 species in order to provide a multi-species test of the degree to which climate envelope versus land-use models are useful in predicting species distributions and population trends of birds in forest ecosystems of the western U.S. and Canada. Our results suggest that models describing associations between climatic variables and abundance patterns can be used for some species to predict changes through time, and that changes in climate have already driven shifts in the geographic patterns of abundance of bird populations in western North America. For other species, models using land-use variables including raw remote-sensing variables may provide the best predictions for abundance change. The results of this research showing the reliability of models across multiple species will aid managers in understanding which species are most vulnerable to changes from climate, land-use change and their interaction.

Final Report↗

USGS2003

Quaternary vegetation and climate change in the western United States: Developments, perspectives, and prospects

This chapter explores the strengths and shortcomings of the major sources of data on Quaternary vegetation and climate change and discusses the use of models as a means to explore past and potential future environmental changes. The flora and major vegetation types of the western United States are present for several million years. Ongoing changes in atmospheric chemistry , climate, and human activities may lead to major vegetation changes over the coming decades to centuries. The combination of observations from the paleoenvironmental record, modern ecological studies, and modeling now permit assessments of the magnitude of potential future changes in the context of natural variability. They also provide opportunities for hypothesis testing and identification of the processes driving past changes in vegetation and climate. Understanding the dynamics of paleoenvironmental change can contribute to current conservation and natural resource management efforts and will help conservation and natural resource managers anticipate the potential rate, magnitude, and complexity of future vegetation change.

western United States↗

USGS2018

Hydroclimatology of the Missouri River basin

Despite the importance of the Missouri River for navigation, recreation, habitat, hydroelectric power, and agriculture, relatively little is known about the basic hydroclimatology of the Missouri River basin (MRB). This is of particular concern given the droughts and floods that have occurred over the past several decades and the potential future exacerbation of these extremes by climate change. Here, observed and modeled hydroclimatic data and estimated natural flow records in the MRB are used to 1) assess the major source regions of MRB flow, 2) describe the climatic controls on streamflow in the upper and lower basins , and 3) investigate trends over the instrumental period. Analyses indicate that 72% of MRB runoff is generated by the headwaters in the upper basin and by the lowest portion of the basin near the mouth. Spring precipitation and temperature and winter precipitation impacted by changes in zonal versus meridional flow from the Pacific Ocean play key roles in surface water supply variability in the upper basin. Lower basin flow is significantly correlated with precipitation in late spring and early summer, indicative of Atlantic-influenced circulation variability affecting the flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Although increases in precipitation in the lower basin are currently overriding the effects of warming temperatures on total MRB flow, the upper basin’s long-term trend toward decreasing flows, reduction in snow versus rain fraction, and warming spring temperatures suggest that the upper basin may less often provide important flow supplements to the lower basin in the future.

Missouri River basin↗

USGS2007

Climate Variability and Change

In 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed a science strategy outlining the major natural science issues facing the Nation in the next decade. The science strategy consists of six science directions of critical importance, focusing on areas where natural science can make a substantial contribution to the well-being of the Nation and the world. This fact sheet focuses on climate variability and change and how USGS research can strengthen the Nation with information needed to meet the challenges of the 21st century.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2012

Climate-change-driven deterioration of water quality in a mineralized watershed

A unique 30-year streamwater chemistry data set from a mineralized alpine watershed with naturally acidic, metal-rich water displays dissolved concentrations of Zn and other metals of ecological concern increasing by 100–400% (400–2000 μg/L) during low-flow months, when metal concentrations are highest. SO 4 and other major ions show similar increases. A lack of natural or anthropogenic land disturbances in the watershed during the study period suggests that climate change is the underlying cause. Local mean annual and mean summer air temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.2–1.2 °C/decade since the 1980s. Other climatic and hydrologic indices, including stream discharge during low-flow months, do not display statistically significant trends. Consideration of potential specific causal mechanisms driven by rising temperatures suggests that melting of permafrost and falling water tables (from decreased recharge) are probable explanations for the increasing concentrations. The prospect of future widespread increases in dissolved solutes from mineralized watersheds is concerning given likely negative impacts on downstream ecosystems and water resources, and complications created for the establishment of attainable remediation objectives at mine sites.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2015

Climate change and prairie pothole wetlands: mitigating water-level and hydroperiod effects through upland management

Prairie pothole wetlands offer crucial habitat for North America’s waterfowl populations. The wetlands also support an abundance of other species and provide ecological services valued by society. The hydrology of prairie pothole wetlands is dependent on atmospheric interactions. Therefore, changes to the region’s climate can have profound effects on wetland hydrology. The relevant literature related to climate change and upland management effects on prairie pothole wetland water levels and hydroperiods was reviewed. Climate change is widely expected to affect water levels and hydroperiods of prairie pothole wetlands, as well as the biota and ecological services that the wetlands support. In general, hydrologic model projections that incorporate future climate change scenarios forecast lower water levels in prairie pothole wetlands and longer periods spent in a dry condition, despite potential increases in precipitation. However, the extreme natural variability in climate and hydrology of prairie pothole wetlands necessitates caution when interpreting model results. Recent changes in weather patterns throughout much of the Prairie Pothole Region have been in increased precipitation that results in increased water inputs to wetlands above losses associated with warmer temperatures. However, observed precipitation increases are within the range of natural climate variability and therefore, may not persist. Identifying management techniques with the potential to affect water inputs to prairie pothole wetlands would provide increased options for managers when dealing with the uncertainties associated with a changing climate. Several grassland management techniques (for example, grazing and burning) have the potential to affect water levels and hydroperiods of prairie pothole by affecting infiltration, evapotranspiration, and snow deposition.

Prairie Pothole Region↗