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Final project memorandum: sea-level rise modeling handbook: resource guide for resource managers, engineers, and scientists

Coastal wetlands of the Southeastern United States are undergoing retreat and migration from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. Much of the literature describing potential sea-level rise projections and modeling predictions are found in peer-reviewed academic journals or government technical reports largely suited to reading by other Ph.D. scientists who are more familiar or engaged in the climate change debate. Various sea-level rise and coastal wetland models have been developed and applied of different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting habitat and environmental change that have not heretofore been synthesized to aid natural resource managers of their utility and limitations. Training sessions were conducted with Federal land managers with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, and NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserves as well as state partners and nongovernmental organizations across the northern Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas to educate and to evaluate user needs and understanding of concepts, data, and modeling tools for projecting sea-level rise and its impact on coastal habitats and wildlife. As a result, this handbook was constructed from these training and feedback sessions with coastal managers and biologists of published decision-support tools and simulation models for sea-level rise and climate change assessments. A simplified tabular context was developed listing the various kinds of decision-support tools and ecological models along with criteria to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic data sets, physical and biological constraints and relationships, datum characteristics of water and land elevation components, utility options for setting sea-level rise and climate change scenarios, and ease or difficulty of storing, displaying, or interpreting model output. The handbook is designed to be a primer to understanding sea-level rise and a practical synthesis of the current state of knowledge and modeling tools as a resource guide for DOl land management needs and facilitating Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) research and conservation initiatives.

Conference Paper↗

Harvesting wildlife affected by climate change: a modelling and management approach for polar bears

The conservation of many wildlife species requires understanding the demographic effects of climate change, including interactions between climate change and harvest, which can provide cultural, nutritional or economic value to humans. We present a demographic model that is based on the polar bear Ursus maritimus life cycle and includes density-dependent relationships linking vital rates to environmental carrying capacity ( K ). Using this model, we develop a state-dependent management framework to calculate a harvest level that (i) maintains a population above its maximum net productivity level (MNPL; the population size that produces the greatest net increment in abundance) relative to a changing K , and (ii) has a limited negative effect on population persistence. Our density-dependent relationships suggest that MNPL for polar bears occurs at approximately 0·69 (95% CI = 0·63–0·74) of K . Population growth rate at MNPL was approximately 0·82 (95% CI = 0·79–0·84) of the maximum intrinsic growth rate, suggesting relatively strong compensation for human-caused mortality. Our findings indicate that it is possible to minimize the demographic risks of harvest under climate change, including the risk that harvest will accelerate population declines driven by loss of the polar bear's sea-ice habitat. This requires that (i) the harvest rate – which could be 0 in some situations – accounts for a population's intrinsic growth rate, (ii) the harvest rate accounts for the quality of population data (e.g. lower harvest when uncertainty is large), and (iii) the harvest level is obtained by multiplying the harvest rate by an updated estimate of population size. Environmental variability, the sex and age of removed animals and risk tolerance can also affect the harvest rate. Synthesis and applications . We present a coupled modelling and management approach for wildlife that accounts for climate change and can be used to balance trade-offs among multiple conservation goals. In our example application to polar bears experiencing sea-ice loss, the goals are to maintain population viability while providing continued opportunities for subsistence harvest. Our approach may be relevant to other species for which near-term management is focused on human factors that directly influence population dynamics within the broader context of climate-induced habitat degradation.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

Flow recommendations for maintaining riparian vegetation along the Upper Missouri River, Montana

Montana Power Company, Inc. (MPC) submitted a final license application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) on November 30, 1992. In this application, MPC proposed a plan for the protection of fish, wildlife, habitat, and water-quality resources. One concern was maintenance of woody riparian vegetation along the Missouri River, especially along the Wild and Scenic reach of the river, where the riparian forest occurs in relatively small discontinuous stands. The objectives of this project were 1) to recommend flows that would protect and enhance riparian forests along the Missouri River, and 2) to develop elements of an environmental monitoring program that could be used to assess the effectiveness of the recommended flows. Plains cottonwood ( Populus deltoides subsp. monilifera ) is the key structural component of riparian forests along the Missouri River. Therefore, we focused our analysis on factors affecting populations of this species. Previous work had demonstrated that the age structure of cottonwood populations is strongly influenced by aspects of flow that promote successfully establishment. In this study our approach was to determine the precise age of plains cottonwood trees growing along the Upper Missouri River and to relate years of establishment to the flow record. Our work was carried out between Coal Banks Landing and the Fred G. Robinson Bridge within the Wild and Scenic portion of the Missouri River. This segment of the river occupies a narrow valley and exhibits little channel migration. Maps and notes from the journals of Lewis and Clark (1804-1806) suggest that the present distribution and abundance of cottonwoods within the study reach is generally similar to presettlement conditions. Flows in the study reach are influenced by a number of dams and diversions, most importantly, Canyon Ferry and Tiber Dams. Although flow regulation has decreased peak flows and increased low flows, the gross seasonal pattern of flow has not been greatly altered. Most cottonwood establishment in our study reach occurred in years with a peak mean daily flow greater than 1,400 m 3 /s (49,434 cfs), or in the two years following such a flow. These years include 35 out of the 111 years of record, and account for establishment of 47 of 60 trees examined, a highly significant relationship. Infrequent establishment of cottonwood trees is not the result of scarcity of seed or seedlings. In the study reach seedlings become established most years on bare, relatively low surfaces deposited by the river. However, the high elevation of establishment of all trees dating to before 1978 indicates that only individuals established on high flood deposits are able to survive subsequent floods and ice jams. In order to maintain the present abundance of plains cottonwood in the study area we recommend flood flows in excess of 1,400 m 3 /s (49,434 cfs) measures as mean daily discharge at Fort Benton (U.S. Geological Survey gage 06090800) with a recurrence interval of approximately 9 years. Because cottonwood seeds remain viable for only a few weeks, and because seedling require a moist, bare surface, we further recommend maintenance of the historic timing of flooding with peak flood flows occurring between mid-May and late-June. Flow is not the only factor influencing cottonwood regeneration along this reach of the Missouri River. Land management, especially cattle grazing, is clearly having an impact, and changes in cottonwood populations could be expected if these practices were altered. However, the dependence of cottonwood establishment on high flow is clear in this reach in spite of the effects of other factors. Given the value of the resource, we strongly suggest establishment of a monitoring program to determine the effectiveness of the recommended flows and to provide the data necessary for refining them. We recommend a monitoring program that would include: 1) ten permanent, widely space channel cross sections for annual measurement of channel geometry and cottonwood establishment, growth, and survival; 2) five livestock enclosures to monitor the influence of grazing in the study area; and 3) low-elevation aerial photography of the reach every five years and after every flood to detect changes in channel geometry and forested area. Because cottonwood establishment is episodic, a long-term commitment to the monitoring effort is essential. In addition, cross sections and exclosures should be easy enough to access that measurements during flood years are possible.

Montana↗

Mapping saltwater intrusion in the Biscayne Aquifer, Miami-Dade County, Florida using transient electromagnetic sounding

Saltwater intrusion in southern Florida poses a potential threat to the public drinking-water supply that is typically monitored using water samples and electromagnetic induction logs collected from a network of wells. Transient electromagnetic (TEM) soundings are a complementary addition to the monitoring program because of their ease of use, low cost, and ability to fill in data gaps between wells. TEM soundings have been used to map saltwater intrusion in the Biscayne aquifer over a large part of south Florida including eastern Miami-Dade County and the Everglades. These two areas are very different with one being urban and the other undeveloped. Each poses different conditions that affect data collection and data quality. In the developed areas, finding sites large enough to make soundings is difficult. The presence of underground pipes further restricts useable locations. Electromagnetic noise, which reduces data quality, is also an issue. In the Everglades, access to field sites is difficult and working in water-covered terrain is challenging. Nonetheless, TEM soundings are an effective tool for mapping saltwater intrusion. Direct estimates of water quality can be obtained from the inverted TEM data using a formation factor determined for the Biscayne aquifer. This formation factor is remarkably constant over Miami-Dade County owing to the uniformity of the aquifer and the absence of clay. Thirty-six TEM soundings were collected in the Model Land area of southeast Miami-Dade County to aid in calibration of a helicopter electromagnetic (HEM) survey. The soundings and HEM survey revealed an area of saltwater intrusion aligned with canals and drainage ditches along U.S. Highway 1 and the Card Sound Road. These canals and ditches likely reduced freshwater levels through unregulated drainage and provided pathways for seawater to flow at least 12.4 km inland.

Florida↗

Cogestion and recreation site demand: a model of demand-induced quality effects

This analysis focuses on problems of estimating site-specific dollar benefits conferred by outdoor recreation sites in the face of congestion costs. Encounters, crowding effects and congestion costs have often been treated by natural resource economists in a piecemeal fashion. In the current paper, encounters and crowding effects are treated systematically. We emphasize the quantitative impact of congestion costs on site-specific estimates of benefits conferred by improvements in outdoor recreation sites. The principal analytic conclusion is that techniques that streamline on data requirements produce biased estimates of benefits conferred by site improvements at facilities with significant crowding effects. The principal policy recommendation is that the Federal and state agencies should collect and store information on visitation rates, encounter levels and congestion costs at various outdoor recreation sites.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

Causal inference approaches reveal both positive and negative unintended effects of agricultural and urban management practices on instream biological condition

Agricultural and urban management practices (MPs) are primarily designed and implemented to reduce nutrient and sediment concentrations in streams. However, there is growing interest in determining if MPs produce any unintended positive effects, or co-benefits, to instream biological and habitat conditions. Identifying co-benefits is challenging though because of confounding variables (i.e., those that affect both where MPs are applied and stream biota), which can be accounted for in novel causal inference approaches. Here, we used two causal inference approaches, propensity score matching (PSM) and Bayesian network learning (BNL), to identify potential MP co-benefits in the Chesapeake Bay watershed portion of Maryland, USA. Specifically, we examined how MPs may modify instream conditions that impact fish and macroinvertebrate indices of biotic integrity (IBI) and functional and taxonomic endpoints. We found evidence of positive unintended effects of MPs for both benthic macroinvertebrates and fish indicated by higher IBI scores and specific endpoints like the number of scraper macroinvertebrate taxa and lithophilic spawning fish taxa in a subset of regions. However, our results also suggest MPs have negative unintended effects, especially on sensitive benthic macroinvertebrate taxa and key instream habitat and water quality metrics like specific conductivity. Overall, our results suggest MPs offer co-benefits in some regions and catchments with largely degraded conditions but can have negative unintended effects in some regions, especially in catchments with good biological conditions. We suggest the number and types of MPs drove these mixed results and highlight carefully designed MP implementation that incorporates instream biological data at the catchment scale could facilitate co-benefits to instream biological conditions. Our study underscores the need for more research on identifying effects of individual MP types on instream biological and habitat conditions.

Maryland↗

Effects of stormwater infiltration on quality of groundwater beneath retention and detention basins

Infiltration of storm water through detention and retention basins may increase the risk of groundwater contamination, especially in areas where the soil is sandy and the water table shallow, and contaminants may not have a chance to degrade or sorb onto soil particles before reaching the saturated zone. Groundwater from 16 monitoring wells installed in basins in southern New Jersey was compared to the quality of shallow groundwater from 30 wells in areas of new-urban land use. Basin groundwater contained much lower levels of dissolved oxygen, which affected concentrations of major ions. Patterns of volatile organic compound and pesticide occurrence in basin groundwater reflected the land use in the drainage areas served by the basins, and differed from patterns in background samples, exhibiting a greater occurrence of petroleum hydrocarbons and certain pesticides. Dilution effects and volatilization likely decrease the concentration and detection frequency of certain compounds commonly found in background groundwater. High recharge rates in storm water basins may cause loading factors to be substantial even when constituent concentrations in infiltrating storm water are relatively low.

New Jersey↗

Detection of pesticides and pesticide metabolites using the cross reactivity of enzyme immunoassays

Enzyme immunoassay is an important environmental analysis method that may be used to identify many pesticide analytes in water samples. Because of similarities in chemical structure between various members of a pesticide class, there often may be an unwanted response that is characterized by a percentage of cross reactivity. Also, there may be cross reactivity caused by degradation products of the target analyte that may be present in the sample. In this paper, the concept of cross reactivity caused by degradation products or by nontarget analytes is explored as a tool for identification of metabolites or structurally similar compounds not previously known to be present in water samples. Two examples are examined in this paper from various water quality studies. They are alachlor and its metabolite, alachlor ethane sulfonic acid, and atrazine and its class members, prometryn and propazine. A method for using cross reactivity for the detection of these compounds is explained in this paper.

Journal of AOAC International↗

Diatom (Bacillariophyta) community response to water quality and land use

Aquatic algal communities are sensitive to environmental stresses and are used as indicators of water quality. Diatoms were collected from three streams that drain the Great Marsh at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore. Diatom communities, water chemistry, and land use were measured at each site to test the hypothesis that differences in land use indirectly affect diatom communities, through changes in water quality. Relationships among these variables were examined by correlation, cluster, and detrended correspondence analysis. Several water chemistry variables were correlated to several land-use categories. Diatom species diversity was most variable in disturbed areas with poorer water quality and was correlated with land use and total alkalinity, total hardness, and specific conductance. Sites within each stream were grouped in terms of their diatom assemblage by both cluster and detrended correspondence analysis with but two exceptions in Dunes Creek. Diatom communities in the three streams responded to land use through its effects on water quality. The results of this study demonstrate the use of diatom assemblages as indicators of water quality, which can be linked to land use in a watershed.

Indiana↗

Long-term assessment of ichthyoplankton in a large North American river system reveals changes in fish community dynamics

Larval fishes are sensitive to abiotic conditions and provide a direct measure of spawning success. The St. Clair – Detroit River System, a Laurentian Great Lakes connecting channel with a history of environmental degradation, has undergone improvements in habitat and water quality since the 1970s. We compared 2006–2015 ichthyoplankton community data with those collected prior to remediation efforts (1977–1978) to identify patterns in spatial and temporal variability. Both assemblages exhibited a predictable phenology, with taxa from the subfamily Coregoninae dominant in early spring followed by families Osmeridae, Percidae, and Moronidae (May–June) and Cyprinidae and Clupeidae (June–August). While higher densities of larval fish were found in the Detroit River, greater taxa richness and Shannon diversity were observed in the St. Clair River. System wide, 14 new taxa were observed in the 2000s study period. In addition, relative densities of two nonnative species, alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ) and rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax ), declined since the 1970s. Increased larval fish richness and decreased densities of nonnative taxa in the 2000s are consistent with improvements to environmental conditions.

Michigan, Ontario↗

Microbiological quality of Puget Sound Basin streams and identification of contaminant sources

Fecal coliforms, Escherichia coli , enterococci, and somatic coliphages were detected in samples from 31 sites on streams draining urban and agricultural regions of the Puget Sound Basin Lowlands. Densities of bacteria in 48 and 71 percent of the samples exceeded U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's freshwater recreation criteria for Escherichia coli and enterococci, respectively, and 81 percent exceeded Washington State fecal coliform standards. Male-specific coliphages were detected in samples from 15 sites. Male-specific F + RNA coliphages isolated from samples taken at South Fork Thornton and Longfellow Creeks were serotyped as Group II, implicating humans as potential contaminant sources. These two sites are located in residential, urban areas. F + RNA coliphages in samples from 10 other sites, mostly in agricultural or rural areas, were serotyped as Group I, implicating non-human animals as likely sources. Chemicals common to wastewater, including fecal sterols, were detected in samples from several urban streams, and also implicate humans, at least in part, as possible sources of fecal bacteria and viruses to the streams.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

The future of salmonid communities in the Laurentian Great Lakes

The effects of human population growth, industrialization, and the introduction of marine fishes have reduced the suitability of each of the Great Lakes for oligotrophic fish communities. The ultimate consequence has been a reduction of fishery productivity that has ranged from extreme in Lake Ontario to moderate in Lake Superior. If measures are not taken to alleviate the adverse effects of marine invaders and trends in environmental quality, a major reduction in fishery productivity can eventually be expected throughout the Great Lakes.Prospects for the next century will be improved if the lakes can be intensively managed. More stringent control of the sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ), and subsequent reduction of the alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ), by the reestablishment of populations of large piscivores, should permit the recovery of some of the previous predator and prey species, or the development of populations of new species that are more compatible with a reduced number of lampreys. Even if marine species can be reduced greatly, the full restoration of the former fishery productivity remains uncertain and will require a high degree of coordination among all management and research agencies that have responsibilities on the Great Lakes.Unfavorable trends toward progressive degradation of water quality pose the greatest threat to restoration of the fishery resources of the Great Lakes. Where changes in water quality have been the greatest, oligotrophic species have become scarce or absent, and in the deepwater regions no other species have reoccupied the vacated niches.

Journal of the Fisheries Research Board of Canada↗

Monitoring algal blooms in drinking water reservoirs using the Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager

In this study, we demonstrated that the Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) sensor is a powerful tool that can provide periodic and system-wide information on the condition of drinking water reservoirs. The OLI is a multispectral radiometer (30 m spatial resolution) that allows ecosystem observations at spatial and temporal scales that allow the environmental community and water managers another means to monitor changes in water quality not feasible with field-based monitoring. Using the provisional Land Surface Reflectance product and field-collected chlorophyll- a (chl- a ) concentrations from drinking water monitoring programs in North Carolina and Rhode Island, we compared five established approaches for estimating chl- a concentrations using spectral data. We found that using the three band reflectance approach with a combination of OLI spectral bands 1, 3, and 5 produced the most promising results for accurately estimating chl- a concentrations in lakes ( R 2 value of 0.66; root mean square error value of 8.9 µg l −1 ). Using this model, we forecast the spatial and temporal variability of chl- a for Jordan Lake, a recreational and drinking water source in piedmont North Carolina and several small ponds that supply drinking water in southeastern Rhode Island.

North Carolina↗

Enhancing Great Lakes coastal ecosystems research by initiating engagement between scientists and decision-makers

A disconnect between scientific research and environmental management communities can be a detriment to both. In the case of Great Lakes coastal ecosystems, which are inherently complex and subject to uncertain effects of future climatic, environmental, and anthropogenic drivers, greater collaboration could be beneficial to their sustainability. We capture the challenges and opportunities identified by a scientist/decision-maker co-production workshop focused on the future environmental quality of Great Lakes coastal wetlands. We explain our path through the stakeholder workshop process, our challenges in translating meeting outcomes into actionable items, and lessons learned to bridge gaps between scientists and decision-makers. Additionally, we determine topics and directions identified by decision-makers that can be modeled with existing technologies and others that require further research. These topics may be incorporated into future research efforts and could serve as a shortlist of research priorities that were identified by decision-makers working with coastal wetland issues. Based on lessons learned during and after the workshop, we provide suggestions for bridging the gap between researchers and decision-makers, including sustained engagement between these groups and improved interaction through the beginning, duration, and end of research and/or management efforts.

Great Lakes↗

Interaction of ambient conditions and fecal coliform bacteria in southern Lake Michigan beach waters: Monitoring program implications

Excessive fecal coliform bacteria in public swimming waters can potentially threaten visitor health. Fecal coliform bacteria (1984-1989) and Escherichia coli (1990-1995) density were monitored weekly at the Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore beaches for 12 summers, and park officials closed swimming areas when fecal coliform density exceeded the state water quality criteria (400 CFU fecal coliforms/ 100 ml; 235 CFU E. coli/100 ml water). Due to a 24-hour incubation in the fecal coliform and E. coli assays, beaches were closed the day after collection of high fecal coliform. Our analysis suggests that it is not possible to predict one day's fecal coliform count based on the previous day's results in waters taken from southern Lake Michigan beaches. Dispersal and deposition of bacteria were not uniform among sites or across time apparently due to interactions among environmental variables including rainfall, wind direction, water temperature, and bacteria source. Rainfall combined with northwest winds increased bacteria concentrations. Escherichia coli followed a seasonal trend with similar fluctuations in density among beaches. We suggest that the current beach monitoring protocol is inadequate for predicting fecal coliform density at the time of beach closure, and, subsequently, its use for ensuring visitor safety remains questionable.

Indiana↗

Soil science and geology: Connects, disconnects and new opportunities in geoscience education

Despite historical linkages, the fields of geology and soil science have developed along largely divergent paths in the United States during much of the mid- to late- twentieth century. The shift in recent decades within both disciplines to greater emphasis on environmental quality issues and a systems approach has created new opportunities for collaboration and cross-training. Because of the importance of the soil as a dynamic interface between the hydrosphere, biosphere, atmosphere, and lithosphere, introductory and advanced soil science classes are now being taught in a number of earth and environmental science departments. The National Research Council's recent report, Basic Research Opportunities in Earth Science, highlights the soil zone as part of the land surface-to-groundwater "critical zone" requiring additional investigation. To better prepare geology undergraduates to deal with complex environmental problems, their training should include a fundamental understanding of the nature and properties of soils. Those undergraduate geology students with an interest in this area should be encouraged to view soil science as a viable earth science specialty area for graduate study. Summer internships such as those offered by the National Science Foundation-funded Integrative Graduate Education, Research, and Training (IGERT) programs offer geology undergraduates the opportunity to explore research and career opportunities in soil science.

Journal of Geoscience Education↗

Assessing the influence of sustainable trail design and maintenance on soil loss

Natural-surfaced trail systems are an important infrastructure component providing a means for accessing remote protected natural area destinations. The condition and usability of trails is a critical concern of land managers charged with providing recreational access while preserving natural conditions, and to visitors seeking high quality recreational opportunities and experiences. While an adequate number of trail management publications provide prescriptive guidance for designing, constructing, and maintaining natural-surfaced trails, surprisingly little research has been directed at providing a scientific basis for this guidance. Results from a review of the literature and three scientific studies are presented to model and clarify the influence of factors that substantially influence trail soil loss and that can be manipulated by trail professionals to sustain high traffic while minimizing soil loss over time. Key factors include trail grade, slope alignment angle, tread drainage features, and the amount of rock in tread substrates. A new Trail Sustainability Rating is developed and offered as a tool for evaluating or improving the sustainability of existing or new trails.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

Persistence of Pasteurella multocida in wetlands following avian cholera outbreaks

Avian cholera, caused by Pasteurella multocida, affects waterbirds across North America and occurs worldwide among various avian species. Once an epizootic begins, contamination of the wetland environment likely facilitates the transmission of P. multocida to susceptible birds. To evaluate the ability of P. multocida serotype-1, the most common serotype associated with avian cholera in waterfowl in western and central North America, to persist in wetlands and to identify environmental factors associated with its persistence, we collected water and sediment samples from 23 wetlands during winters and springs of 1996a??99. These samples were collected during avian cholera outbreaks and for up to 13 wk following initial sampling. We recovered P. multocida from six wetlands that were sampled following the initial outbreaks, but no P. multocida was isolated later than 7 wk after the initial outbreak sampling. We found no significant relationship between the probability of recovery of P. multocida during resampling and the abundance of the bacterium recovered during initial sampling, the substrate from which isolates were collected, isolate virulence, or water quality conditions previously suggested to be related to the abundance or survival of P. multocida. Our results indicate that wetlands are unlikely to serve as a long-term reservoir for P. multocida because the bacterium does not persist in wetlands for long time periods following avian cholera outbreaks.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases↗