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At least 343 records · Page 19Linked to original sources

USGS2010

Historical evolution of the Columbia River littoral cell

This paper details the historical coastal evolution of the Columbia River littoral cell in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Geological data from A.D. 1700 and records leading up to the late 1800s provide insights to the natural system dynamics prior to significant human intervention, most notably jetty construction between 1885 and 1917. All reliable surveys, charts, and aerial photos are used to quantify decadal-scale changes at the three estuary entrances and four sub-cells of the littoral cell. Shoreline, bathymetric, and topographic change over three historical intervals—1870s–1920s, 1920s–1950s, and 1950s–1990s—are integrated to provide an understanding of sediment-sharing relationships among the littoral cell components. Regional morphological change data are developed for alongshore segments of approximately 5 km, enabling comparisons of shoreline change to upper-shoreface and barrier volume change within common compartments. The construction of entrance jetties at the Columbia River (1885–1917) and Grays Harbor (1898–1916) has profoundly affected the evolution of the littoral cell, and has accentuated the morphological coupling between the inlets, ebb-tidal deltas, shorefaces, and barriers. The jetties induced erosion of the inlets and offshore migration of ebb-tidal deltas. The change in boundary conditions at the entrances enabled waves to rework the flanks of ebb-tidal deltas and supply enormous quantities of sand to the adjacent coasts. Over several decades the initial sand pulses have been dispersed alongshore up to tens of kilometers from the estuary entrances. Winter waves and coastal currents produce net northward sediment transport across the shoreface while summer conditions tend to induce onshore sediment transport and accumulation of the upper shoreface and barriers at relatively high rates. Historical shoreline progradation rates since jetty construction are approximately double the late prehistoric rates between 1700 and the 1870s. Erosion rates of the mid- to lower shoreface to the south of the jettied estuary entrances have typically been greater than the accumulation rates of the upper shoreface and barrier, suggesting that the lower shoreface has been an important source of littoral sediments over decadal and longer time scales. Until recent decades, sediment supply from the ebb-tidal delta flanks and lower shoreface has largely masked the decline in Columbia River sediment supply resulting from flow regulation and dredging disposal practices. With the contemporary onset and expansion of coastal erosion adjacent to the jettied estuary entrances, proper management of dredged sediment is imperative to mitigate the effects of a declining sediment budget.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2011

Rapid wetland expansion during European settlement and its implication for marsh survival under modern sediment delivery rates

Fluctuations in sea-level rise rates are thought to dominate the formation and evolution of coastal wetlands. Here we demonstrate a contrasting scenario in which land-use–related changes in sediment delivery rates drive the formation of expansive marshland, and vegetation feedbacks maintain their morphology despite recent sediment supply reduction. Stratigraphic analysis and radiocarbon dating in the Plum Island Estuary (Massachusetts, United States) suggest that salt marshes expanded rapidly during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries due to increased rates of sediment delivery following deforestation associated with European settlement. Numerical modeling coupled with the stratigraphic observations suggests that existing marshland could survive, but not form under the low suspended sediment concentrations observed in the estuary today. These results suggest that many of the expansive marshes that characterize the modern North American coast are metastable relicts of high nineteenth century sediment delivery rates, and that recent observations of degradation may represent a slow return to pre-settlement marsh extent. In contrast to ecosystem management practices in which restoring pre-anthropogenic conditions is seen as a way to increase ecosystem services, our results suggest that widespread efforts to restore valuable coastal wetlands actually prevent some systems from returning to a natural state.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2011

Avian communities in tidal salt marshes of San Francisco Bay: A review of functional groups by foraging guild and habitat association

The San Francisco Bay estuary is highly urbanized, but it supports the largest remaining extent of tidal salt marshes on the west coast of North America as well as a diverse native bird community. San Francisco Bay tidal marshes are occupied by more than 113 bird species that represent 31 families, including five subspecies from three families that we denote as tidal-marsh obligates. To better identify the niche of bird species in tidal marshes, we present a review of functional groups based on foraging guilds and habitat associations. Foraging guilds describe the method by which species obtain food from tidal marshes, while habitat associations describe broad areas within the marsh that have similar environmental conditions. For example, the ubiquitous song sparrows (Alameda Melospiza melodia pusillula , Suisun M. m. maxillaris , and San Pablo M. m. samuelis ) are surface-feeding generalists that consume prey from vegetation and the ground, and they are found across the entire marsh plain into the upland–marsh transition. In contrast, surface-feeding California black rails ( Laterallus jamaicensis coturniculus ) are cryptic, and generally restricted in their distribution to the mid- and high-marsh plain. Although in the same family, the endangered California clapper rail ( Rallus longirostris obsoletus ) has become highly specialized, foraging primarily on benthic fauna within marsh channels when they are exposed at low tide. Shorebirds such as the black-necked stilt ( Himantopus mexicanus ) typically probe in mud flats to consume macroinvertebrate prey, and are generally restricted to foraging on salt pans within the marsh plain, in ponds, or on mud flats during transitional stages of marsh evolution. The abundance and distribution of birds varies widely with changing water depths and vegetation colonization during different stages of restoration. Thus, tidal-marsh birds represent a rich and diverse community in bay marshes, with niches that may be distinguished by the food resources they consume and the habitats that they occupy along the tidal gradient.

California↗

USGS2010

Surface water discharge and salinity monitoring of coastal estuaries in Everglades National Park, USA, in support of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan

Discharge and salinity were measured along the southwest and the southeast coast of Florida in Everglades National Park (ENP) within several rivers and creeks from 1996 through 2008. Data were collected using hydro-acoustic instruments and continuous water-quality monitors at fixed monitoring stations. Water flowed through ENP within two distinct drainage basins; specifically, Shark Slough and Taylor Slough. Discharge to the southwest coast through Shark Slough was substantially larger than discharge to the southeast coast through Taylor Slough. Correlation analysis between coastal flows and regulated flows at water-management structures upstream from ENP suggests rainfall has a larger impact on discharge through Shark Slough than releases from the S-12 water management structures. In contrast, flow releases from water management structures upstream from Taylor Slough appear to be more closely related to discharge along the southeast coast. Salinity varied within a wide range (0 to 50 parts per thousand) along both coastlines. Periods of hypersalinity were greater along the southeast coast due to shallow compartmentalized basins within Florida Bay, which restrict circulation.

Florida↗

USGS2012

Coastal impacts, adaptation, and vulnerabilities: a technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

The coast has long provided communities with a multitude of benefits including an abundance of natural resources that sustain economies, societies, and ecosystems. Coasts provide natural harbors for commerce, trade, and transportation; beaches and shorelines that attract residents and tourists; and wetlands and estuaries that are critical for fisheries and water resources. Coastal ecosystems provide critical functions to cycle and move nutrients, store carbon, detoxify wastes, and purify air and water. These areas also mitigate floods and buffer against coastal storms that bring high winds and salt water inland and erode the shore. Coastal regions are critical in the development, transportation, and processing of oil and natural gas resources and, more recently, are being explored as a source of energy captured from wind and waves. The many benefits and opportunities provided in coastal areas have strengthened our economic reliance on coastal resources. Consequently, the high demands placed on the coastal environment will increase commensurately with human activity. Because 35 U.S. states, commonwealths, and territories have coastlines that border the oceans or Great Lakes, impacts to coastline systems will reverberate through social, economic, and natural systems across the U.S. Impacts on coastal systems are among the most costly and most certain consequences of a warming climate (Nicholls et al., 2007). The warming atmosphere is expected to accelerate sea-level rise as a result of the decline of glaciers and ice sheets and the thermal expansion of sea water. As mean sea level rises, coastal shorelines will retreat and low-lying areas will tend to be inundated more frequently, if not permanently, by the advancing sea. As atmospheric temperature increases and rainfall patterns change, soil moisture and runoff to the coast are likely to be altered. An increase in the intensity of climatic extremes such as storms and heat spells, coupled with other impacts of climate change and the effects of human development, could affect the sustainability of many existing coastal communities and natural resources. This report, one of a series of technical inputs for the third NCA conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, examines the known effects and relationships of climate change variables on the coasts of the U.S. It describes the impacts on natural and human systems, including several major sectors of the U.S. economy, and the progress and challenges to planning and implementing adaptation options. Below we present the key findings from each chapter of the report, beginning with the following key findings from Chapter 1: Introduction and Context.

Book↗

USGS1999

Climatic-eustatic control of Holocene nearshore parasequence development, southeastern Texas coast

Sediment cores, seismic profiles, radiocarbon dates, and faunal assemblages were used to interpret the depositional setting and geological evolution of the southeastern Texas coast during the last glacio-eustatic cycle. Discrete lithofacies and biofacies zones in the ebb-dominated Sabine Lake estuary and adjacent chenier plain record alternating periods of rapid marine flooding and gradual shoaling related to linked climatic/eustatic fluctuations. Monospecific zones of the mollusks Rangia cuneata and Crassostrea virginica, respectively, indicate high fresh water outflow followed by invasion of marine water, whereas intervening organic-rich zones record bayhead delta deposition. High-frequency parasequence stacking patterns within the valley fill and across the adjacent interfluve reflect an initial rapid rise in sea level about 9 ka that flooded abandoned alluvial terraces and caused onlap of Holocene marsh in the incised valley. The rapid rise was followed by slowly rising and oscillating sea level that filled the deepest portions of the incised valleys with fluvially dominated estuarine deposits, and then a maximum highstand (+1 m msl) about 5 ka that flooded the former subaerial coastal plain between the incised valleys and constructed the highest beach ridges. Between 3.5 and 1.5 ka, sea level oscillated and gradually fell, causing a forced regression and rapid progradation of both the chenier plain and accretionary barrier islands. The only significant sands in the valley fill are (1) falling-stage and lowstand-fluvial sediments between the basal sequence boundary and transgressive surface unconformity, and (2) highstand beach-ridge sediments of the chenier plain.

Texas↗

USGS2007

Responses of California Brown Pelicans to disturbances at a large Oregon roost

Numbers of California Brown Pelicans (Pelecanus occidentalis californicus) along the coast of Oregon and Washington have increased sharply in recent years. We identified East Sand Island in the Columbia River estuary as the site of the largest pelican roost within this region. Numbers of pelicans roosting on East Sand Island have increased from less than 100 during 1979-1986 to a high count of 10,852 in 2002. The East Sand Island roost is currently the site of a major non-breeding aggregation of this endangered subspecies. Total numbers of pelicans roosting on East Sand Island increased seasonally from April to September or October, and then declined sharply with the onset of winter storms. Pelicans appeared to forage more during low tides, and return to the roost during high tides; therefore, pelican numbers on the island were positively associated with tide height. Land-based human disturbance was negatively associated with total pelican numbers, whereas water-based human disturbance had no significant effect on total pelican numbers on the island. Natural disturbances, although more frequent than human disturbances, apparently did not influence the total number of pelicans on the island.

Waterbirds↗

USGS2021

Bar-tailed Godwits Limosa lapponica in Alaska: Revisiting population estimates from the staging grounds

Bar-tailed Godwits Limosa lapponica baueri breed in Alaska and spend the nonbreeding season primarily in eastern Australia and New Zealand. Long-term declines spurred recent surveys at nonbreeding sites that yielded a revised population estimate of ~126,000 godwits. We conducted aerial surveys for Bar-tailed Godwits in 2018 and 2019 at pre-migratory staging sites in western Alaska. Counts from similar surveys in 1997 accorded with counts of baueri from the nonbreeding range. Instead of relying on observer estimates of flock sizes, we enumerated 97% of our survey totals using digital photography. Our survey results differed markedly between 2018 (39,751) and 2019 (100,926), differences that reflected a relatively late autumn survey period in 2018, when some godwits were likely to have left the area, compared to 2019. In contrast to the 1997 surveys, we found few Bar-tailed Godwits at estuaries on the Alaska Peninsula. However, we counted nearly 93,000 godwits (~92% of survey total) along ~60 km of coast at the Kuskokwim River Delta in 2019, a value constituting nearly three-quarters of the subspecies’ current population estimate. Our survey totals for 2019 were in agreement with contemporaneous counts at austral nonbreeding sites, demonstrating how aerial surveys from Alaska can provide useful insights into counts conducted elsewhere in the subspecies’ range. When combined with measures of reproductive output, estimates of seasonal survival, and dedicated studies of the movement and survival of juvenile godwits, future surveys from Alaska can further contribute to efforts to determine mechanisms of population changes in baueri Bar-tailed Godwits.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

Coastal subsidence in Oregon, USA during the giant Cascadia earthquake of AD 1700

Quantitative estimates of land-level change during the giant AD 1700 Cascadia earthquake along the Oregon coast are inferred from relative sea-level changes reconstructed from fossil foraminiferal assemblages preserved within the stratigraphic record. A transfer function, based upon a regional training set of modern sediment samples from Oregon estuaries, is calibrated to fossil assemblages in sequences of samples across buried peat-mud and peat-sand contacts marking the AD 1700 earthquake. Reconstructions of sample elevations with sample-specific errors estimate the amount of coastal subsidence during the earthquake at six sites along 400 km of coast. The elevation estimates are supported by lithological, carbon isotope, and faunal tidal zonation data. Coseismic subsidence at Nehalem River, Nestucca River, Salmon River, Alsea Bay, Siuslaw River and South Slough varies between 0.18 m and 0.85 m with errors between 0.18 m and 0.32 m. These subsidence estimates are more precise, consistent, and generally lower than previous semi-quantitative estimates. Following earlier comparisons of semi-quantitative subsidence estimates with elastic dislocation models of megathrust rupture during great earthquakes, our lower estimates for central and northern Oregon are consistent with modeled rates of strain accumulation and amounts of slip on the subduction megathrust, and thus, with a magnitude of 9 for the AD 1700 earthquake.

Oregon↗

USGS2010

Potential mitigation approach to minimize salinity intrusion in the Lower Savannah River Estuary due to reduced controlled releases from Lake Thurmond

The Savannah River originates at the confluence of the Seneca and Tugaloo Rivers, near Hartwell, Ga. and forms the State boundary between South Carolina and Georgia. The J. Strom Thurmond Dam and Lake, located 187 miles upstream from the coast, is responsible for most of the flow regulation that affects the Savannah River from Augusta to the coast. The Savannah Harbor experiences semi-diurnal tides of two high and two low tides in a 24.8-hour period with pronounced differences in tidal range between neap and spring tides occurring on a 14-day and 28-day lunar cycle. The Savannah National Wildlife Refuge is located in the Savannah River Estuary. The tidal freshwater marsh is an essential part of the 28,000-acre refuge and is home to a diverse variety of wildlife and plant communities. The Southeastern U.S. experienced severe drought conditions in 2008 and if the conditions had persisted in Georgia and South Carolina, Thurmond Lake could have reached an emergency operation level where outflow from the lake is equal to the inflow to the lake. To decrease the effect of the reduced releases on downstream resources, a stepped approach was proposed to reduce the flow in increments of 500 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) intervals. Reduced flows from 3,600 ft 3 /s to 3,100 ft 3 /s and 2,600 ft 3 /s were simulated with two previously developed models of the Lower Savannah River Estuary to evaluate the potential effects on salinity intrusion. The end of the previous drought (2002) was selected as the baseline condition for the simulations with the model. Salinity intrusion coincided with the 28-day cycle semidiurnal tidal cycles. The results show a difference between the model simulations of how the salinity will respond to the decreased flows. The Model-to-Marsh Decision Support System (M2MDSS) salinity response shows a large increase in the magnitude (> 6.0 practical salinity units, psu) and duration (3-4 days) of the salinity intrusion with extended periods (21 days) of tidal freshwater remaining in the system. The Environmental Fluid Dynamic Code (EFDC) model predicts increases in the magnitude of the salinity intrusion but only to 2 and 3 psu and the intrusion duration greater than a week. A potential mitigation to the increased salinity intrusion predicted by the M2MDSS would be to time pulses of increase flows to reduce the magnitude of the intrusion. Seven-day streamflow pulses of 4,500 ft 3 /s were inserted into the constant 3,100 ft 3 /s streamflow condition. The streamflow pulses did substantially decrease the magnitude and duration of the salinity intrusion. The result of the streamflow pulse scenario demonstrates how alternative release patterns from Lake Thurmond could be utilized to mitigate potential salinity changes in the Lower Savannah River Estuary.

Georgia, South Carolina↗

USGS2022

Defining oyster resource zones across coastal Louisiana for restoration and aquaculture

Eastern oysters ( Crassostrea virginica ) are a critical ecological and commercial resource in the northern Gulf of Mexico facing changing environmental conditions from river management and climate change. In Louisiana, USA, development of restored reefs, and off-bottom aquaculture would benefit from the identification of locations supportive of sustainable oyster populations ( i.e., metapopulations) and high consistent production. This study defines four oyster resource zones across coastal Louisiana based on environmental conditions known to affect oyster survival, growth, and reproduction. Daily data from 2015 to 2019 were interpolated to generate salinity and temperature profiles across Louisiana's estuaries, which were then used to classify zones based on monthly and annual salinity mean and variance. Zones were classified as supportive of (1) broodstock sanctuary reefs (i.e., support reproductive populations), (2) productive reefs during dry (salty) years, (3) productive reefs during wet (fresh) years, and (4) off-bottom aquaculture development. Of the 38,000 km 2 investigated, over 11,000 km 2 of potential oyster zone area was identified across the Louisiana coast. The Broodstock Sanctuary Zone was the smallest (∼540 km 2 ), as salinity variance limited this zone in many areas, as it is driven largely by riverine inputs across many estuaries. Located up-estuary (Dry Restoration Zone) and down-estuary (Wet Restoration Zone) of the Broodstock Sanctuary Zone, Dry and Wet Restoration Zone areas covered ∼2400 km 2 and ∼3900 km 2 , respectively. Mapped reefs in Louisiana currently exist largely within the Dry Restoration zones, suggesting a potential strategy to focus reef development in Wet Restoration zones to ensure reef network sustainability through years with high precipitation and river inflow. The off-bottom Aquaculture Zone was the largest (∼6400 km 2 ) zone identified, with much of this area located more down-estuary and off-shore. Accounting for variable water quality conditions enables the development of a network of reefs resilient to environmental variability, and more stable areas for consistent off-bottom aquaculture production. Spatial planning and identification of oyster resource zones reduces focus on individual reef success and supports management of oyster metapopulation outcomes, while identifying zones supportive of off-bottom aquaculture.

Louisiana↗

USGS2010

Large-scale coastal change in the Columbia River littoral cell: an overview

This overview introduces large-scale coastal change in the Columbia River littoral cell (CRLC). Covering 165 km of the southwest Washington and northwest Oregon coasts, the littoral cell is made up of wide low-sloping dissipative beaches, broad coastal dunes and barrier plains, three large estuaries, and is bounded by rocky headlands. The beaches and inner shelf are composed of fine-grained sand from the Columbia River and are exposed to a high-energy winter wave climate. Throughout the Holocene, the CRLC has undergone large fluctuations in shoreline change trends, responding to a variety of coastal change drivers, including changing rates of sea-level rise, infrequent, yet catastrophic, co-seismic subsidence events, a large regional sediment supply, inter-annual climatic fluctuations (El Niño cycles), seasonally varying wave climate, and numerous anthropogenic influences. Human influences on the CRLC include construction of over 200 dams in the Columbia River drainage basin, dredging of navigation channels removing sand to upland sites and offshore deep-water sites, and construction of large inlet jetties at the entrances to the Columbia River and Grays Harbor. The construction of these massive entrance jetties at the end of the 19th century has been the dominant driver of coastal change through most of the littoral cell over the last hundred years. Presently, some beaches in the littoral cell are eroding in response to nearshore sediment deficits resulting from a) ebb-jets of the confined entrances pushing the previously large, shallow ebb-tidal deltas offshore into deeper water, and b) waves dispersing the nearshore delta flanks initially onshore and then alongshore away from the jetties. This overview describes 1) the motivation for developing a system-wide understanding of sediment dynamics in the littoral cell at multiple time and space scales, 2) the formation and approach of the Southwest Washington Coastal Erosion Study, and 3) an introduction to the papers in this special issue.

Washington;Oregon↗

USGS2023

Impacts of a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake on water levels and wetlands of the lower Columbia River and Estuary

Subsidence after a subduction zone earthquake can cause major changes in estuarine bathymetry. Here, we quantify the impacts of earthquake-induced subsidence on hydrodynamics and habitat distributions in a major system, the lower Columbia River Estuary, using a hydrodynamic and habitat model. Model results indicate that coseismic subsidence increases tidal range, with the smallest changes at the coast and a maximum increase of ∼10% in a region of topographic convergence. All modeled scenarios reduce intertidal habitat by 24%–25% and shifts ∼93% of estuarine wetlands to lower-elevation habitat bands. Incorporating dynamic effects of tidal change from subsidence yields higher estimates of remaining habitat by multiples of 0–3.7, dependent on the habitat type. The persistent tidal change and chronic habitat disturbance after an earthquake poses strong challenges for estuarine management and wetland restoration planning, particularly when coupled with future sea-level rise effects.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2020

Impacts of sea-level rise on the tidal reach of California coastal rivers using the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

In coastal rivers, the interactions between tides and fluvial discharge affect local ecology, sedimentation, river dynamics, river mouth configuration, and the flooding potential in adjacent wetlands and low-lying areas. With sea-level rise, the tidal reach within coastal rivers can expand upstream, impacting river dynamics and increasing flood risk across a much greater area. Rivers along the Pacific coast of California are constrained by coastal mountain ranges, in contrast to the typical large and low-gradient river deltas and estuaries often used in tidal reach studies. Yet, the impacts of tides are ever-present and considerable to these rivers' habitats and neighboring communities. The impacts of a range of sea-level rise, discharge, and coastal storm conditions on the upstream extent of a spring tidal influence and the associated flood potential are assessed for several coastal rivers across California using coupled Delft3D FLOW-WAVE hydrodynamic simulations that explicitly account for the interactions between waves, currents, surge, and water levels in this study. Projected changes in tidal reach among the various rivers are characterized and implications for adjacent communities and stakeholders are discussed.

California↗

USGS2024

The 3D Elevation Program—Supporting New Hampshire’s economy

Introduction The topography of New Hampshire ranges from the Coastal Lowlands to the Eastern New England Upland to the White Mountains region. High-quality statewide elevation data are useful in managing this very diverse landscape. For example, the short coastline, including the Great Bay estuary and the Hampton-Seabrook marshes, is of disproportionately high value to New Hampshire’s tourist economy. The vulnerability of the coast to the effects of sea-level rise underscores the need for accurate, high-quality nearshore topographic elevation data and offshore bathymetric data to effectively manage the coast’s valuable resources, which include important fisheries, habitat, and infrastructure. Another important use for accurate elevation data in New Hampshire is in the evaluation of flood hazards and their potential environmental and infrastructure effects. This evaluation includes mapping of inundation and sediment transport, and assessing the associated costs of flooding. Addressing this challenge requires detailed knowledge of both surface topography and inland bathymetry. Other important activities having a substantial economic element and needing accurate elevation data include geologic resource assessment and hazard mitigation, urban and regional planning, infrastructure and construction management, and cultural resources preservation and management. Critical applications that meet the State’s management needs depend on light detection and ranging (lidar) data that provide a highly detailed three-dimensional model of the Earth’s surface and aboveground features.

New Hampshire↗

USGS2000

Nearshore fish distributions in an Alaskan estuary in relation to stratification, temperature, and salinity

Fish were sampled with beach seines and small-meshed beam trawls in nearshore ( < 1 km) and shallow ( < 25 m) habitats on the southern coast of Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska, from June to August, 1996-1998. Fish distributions among habitats were analysed for species composition, catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) and frequency of occurrence. Two oceanographically distinct areas of Kachemak Bay were sampled and compared: the Outer Bay and the Inner Bay. Outer Kachemak Bay is exposed and receives oceanic, upwelled water from the Gulf of Alaska, whereas the Inner Bay is more estuarine. Thermohaline properties of bottom water in the Outer and Inner Bay were essentially the same, whereas the Inner Bay water-column was stratified with warmer, less saline waters near the surface. Distribution and abundance of pelagic schooling fish corresponded with area differences in stratification, temperature and salinity. The Inner Bay supported more species and higher densities of schooling and demersal fish than the Outer Bay. Schooling fish communities sampled by beach seine differed between the Outer and Inner Bays. Juvenile and adult Pacific sand lance (Ammodytes hexapterus), Pacific herring (Clupea harengus pallasi), osmerids (Osmeridae) and sculpins (Cottidae) were all more abundant in the Inner Bay. Gadids (Gadidae) were the only schooling fish taxa more abundant in the Outer Bay. Thermohaline characteristics of bottom water were similar throughout Kachemak Bay. Correspondingly, bottom fish communities were similar in all areas. Relative abundances (CPUE) were not significantly different between areas for any of the five demersal fish groups: flatfishes (Pleuronectidae), ronquils (Bathymasteridae), sculpins (Cottidae), gadids (Gadidae) and pricklebacks (Stichaeidae).

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science↗

USGS2012

Assessment of salinity intrusion in the James and Chickahominy Rivers as a result of simulated sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay, East Coast, USA

Global sea level is rising, and the relative rate in the Chesapeake Bay region of the East Coast of the United States is greater than the worldwide rate. Sea-level rise can cause saline water to migrate upstream in estuaries and rivers, threatening freshwater habitat and drinking-water supplies. The effects of future sea-level rise on two tributaries of Chesapeake Bay, the James and Chickahominy (CHK) Rivers, were evaluated in order to quantify the salinity change with respect to the magnitude of sea-level rise. Such changes are critical to: 1) local floral and faunal habitats that have limited tolerance ranges to salinity; and 2) a drinking-water supply for the City of Newport News, Virginia. By using the three-dimensional Hydrodynamic-Eutrophication Model (HEM-3D), sea-level rise scenarios of 30, 50, and 100 cm, based on the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for the mid-Atlantic region for the 21st century, were evaluated. The model results indicate that salinity increases in the entire river as sea level rises and that the salinity increase in a dry year is greater than that in a typical year. In the James River, the salinity increase in the middle-to-upper river (from 25 to 50 km upstream of the mouth) is larger than that in the lower and upper parts of the river. The maximum mean salinity increase would be 2 and 4 ppt for a sea-level rise of 50 and 100 cm, respectively. The upstream movement of the 10 ppt isohaline is much larger than the 5 and 20 ppt isohalines. The volume of water with salinity between 10 and 20 ppt would increase greatly if sea level rises 100 cm. In the CHK River, with a sea-level rise of 100 cm, the mean salinity at the drinking-water intake 34 km upstream of the mouth would be about 3 ppt in a typical year and greater than 5 ppt in a dry year, both far in excess of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's secondary standard for total dissolved solids for drinking water. At the drinking-water intake, the number of days of salinity greater than 0.1 ppt increases with increasing sea-level rise; during a dry year, 0.1 ppt would be exceeded for more than 100 days with as small a rise as 30 cm.

Newport News↗

USGS2017

Predicting the impacts of Mississippi River diversions and sea-level rise on spatial patterns of eastern oyster growth rate and production

There remains much debate regarding the perceived tradeoffs of using freshwater and sediment diversions for coastal restoration in terms of balancing the need for wetland restoration versus preserving eastern oyster ( Crassostrea virginica ) production. Further complicating the issue, climate change-induced sea-level rise (SLR) and land subsidence are also expected to affect estuarine water quality. In this study, we developed a process-based numerical modeling system that couples hydrodynamic, water quality, and oyster population dynamics. We selected Breton Sound Estuary (BSE) (∼2740 km 2 ) in the eastern Mississippi River Deltaic Plain since it is home to several of the largest public oyster seed grounds and private leases for the Gulf coast. The coupled oyster population model was calibrated and validated against field observed oyster growth data. We predicted the responses of oyster population in BSE to small- (142 m 3 s −1 ) and large-scale (7080 m 3 s −1 ) river diversions at the Caernarvon Freshwater Diversion structure planned in the 2012 Coastal Master Plan (Louisiana) under low (0.38 m) and high (1.44 m) relative sea-level rise (RSLR = eustatic SLR + subsidence) compared to a baseline condition (Year 2009). Model results showed that the large-scale diversion had a stronger negative impact on oyster population dynamics via freshening of the entire estuary, resulting in reduced oyster growth rate and production than RSLR. Under the large-scale diversion, areas with optimal oyster growth rates (>15 mg ash-free dry weight (AFDW) oyster −1 wk −1 ) and production (>500 g AFDW m −2 yr −1 ) would shift seaward to the southeastern edge of the estuary, turning the estuary into a very low oyster production system. RSLR however played a greater role than the small-scale diversion on the magnitude and spatial pattern of oyster growth rate and production. RSLR would result in an overall estuary-wide decrease in oyster growth rate and production as a consequence of decreased salinities in the middle and lower estuary because rising sea level likely causes increased stage and overbank flow downstream along the lower Mississippi River.

Louisiana↗