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At least 325 records · Page 18Linked to original sources
USGS2002

Challenges in observational seismology

Earthquake seismology became a quantitative scientific discipline after instruments were developed to record seismic waves in the late 19th century ( Dewey and Byerly, 1969 ; Chapter 1 by Agnew). Earthquake seismology is essentially based on field observations. The great progress made in the past several decades was primarily due to increasingly plentiful and high-quality data that are readily distributed. Our ability to collect, process, and analyze earthquake data has been accelerated by advances in electronics, communications, computers, and software (see Chapter 85 edited by Snoke and Garcia-Fernandez). Instrumental observation of earthquakes has been carried out for a little over 100 years by seismic stations and networks of various sizes, from local to global scales (see Chapter 87 edited by Lahr and van Eck). The observed data have been used, for example, (1) to compute the source parameters of earthquakes, (2) to determine the physical properties of the Earth's interior, (3) to test the theory of plate tectonics , (4) to map active faults, (5) to infer the nature of damaging ground shaking, and (6) to carry out seismic hazard analysis. Construction of a satisfactory theory of the earthquake process has not yet been achieved within the context of physical laws. Good progress, however, has been made in building a physical foundation of the earthquake source process, partly as a result of research directed toward earthquake prediction. This chapter is intended for a general audience. Technical details are not given, but relevant references and chapters in this Handbook are referred to. The first part of this chapter presents a brief overview of the observational aspects of earthquake seismology, concentrating on instrumental observations of seismic waves generated by earthquakes (i.e., seismic monitoring), and readers are referred to Chapter 49 by Musson and Cecic for noninstrumental observations. A few key developments and practices are summarized by taking a general view, since many national and regional developments have been chronicled in national and institutional reports (see Chapter 79 edited by Kisslinger). In the latter part of this chapter, the nature of seismic monitoring and some challenges in observational seismology are discussed from a personal perspective. Comments of a technical or philosophical nature are given in the Notes at the end of the chapter, and they are referenced by superscript numbers in the text.

International Geophysics↗
USGS2004

Map showing geology, oil and gas fields, and geologic provinces of the Caribbean Region

This CD-ROM compilation contains a map and associated spatial data showing surface geology, faults, oil and gas field centerpoints, and geologic provinces of the Caribbean region, draped over a shaded relief image of topography and bathymetry. The map is provided in the Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI) ArcMap and ArcReader GIS formats, as well as in Adobe Acrobat Portable Document Format (PDF). On this CD-ROM, ESRI ArcReader and Adobe Acrobat Reader software provide a way to view and interact with the maps. The organization and user-friendly navigation of this CD-ROM ensure easy access to its maps and data by using the links on the right side of each page. A link to the USGS World Energy Project website is also provided to access the latest information, updates, and interactive maps, as they relate to this and other world energy products. In addition, system requirements, permission, and contact information can be found in the readme section of this product. Navigation of this product can be fully utilized with most web browsers (Internet Explorer 6.0/Netscape Navigator 7.1 or later recommended). Note: an Internet connection is necessary to view USGS website links, World Energy website, and the Caribbean Internet Map Service.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2001

Guidelines for the field evaluation of desert tortoise health and disease

Field evaluation of free-ranging wildlife requires the systematic documentation of a variety of environmental conditions and individual parameters of health and disease, particularly in the case of rare or endangered species. In addition, defined criteria are needed for the humane salvage of ill or dying animals. The purpose of this paper is to describe, in detail, the preparation, procedures, and protocols we developed and tested for the field evaluation of wild desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ). These guidelines describe: preparations for the field, including developing familiarity with tortoise behavior and ecology, and preparation of standardized data sheets; journal notes to document background data on weather conditions, temperature, rainfall, locality, and historic and recent human activities; procedures to prevent the spread of disease and parasites; data sheets for live tortoises to record tortoise identification, location, sex, body measurements and activity; health profile forms for documenting and grading physical abnormalities of tortoise posture and movements, general condition (e.g., lethargy, cachexia), external parasites, and clinical abnormalities associated with shell and upper respiratory diseases; permanent photographic records for the retrospective analysis of progression and regression of upper respiratory and eye diseases, analysis of shell lesions and evaluation of growth and age; and indications and methods for salvaging ill or dying tortoises for necropsy evaluation. These guidelines, tested on 5,000 to 20,000 tortoises over a 10 to 27 yr period, were designed to maximize acquisition of data for demographic, ecological, health and disease research projects; to reduce handling and stress of individual animals; to avoid spread of infectious disease; to promote high quality and consistent data sets; and to reduce the duration and number of field trips. The field methods are adapted for desert tortoise life cycle, behavior, anatomy, physiology, and pertinent disease; however the model is applicable to other species of reptiles. Comprehensive databases of clinical signs of disease and health are crucial to research endeavors and essential to decisions on captive release, epidemiology of disease, translocation of wild tortoises, breeding programs, and euthanasia.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases↗
USGS2013

Triggered tremor sweet spots in Alaska

To better understand what controls fault slip along plate boundaries, we have exploited the abundance of seismic and geodetic data available from the richly varied tectonic environments composing Alaska. A search for tremor triggered by 11 large earthquakes throughout all of seismically monitored Alaska reveals two tremor “sweet spots”—regions where large-amplitude seismic waves repeatedly triggered tremor between 2006 and 2012. The two sweet spots locate in very different tectonic environments—one just trenchward and between the Aleutian islands of Unalaska and Akutan and the other in central mainland Alaska. The Unalaska/Akutan spot corroborates previous evidence that the region is ripe for tremor, perhaps because it is located where plate-interface frictional properties transition between stick-slip and stably sliding in both the dip direction and laterally. The mainland sweet spot coincides with a region of complex and uncertain plate interactions, and where no slow slip events or major crustal faults have been noted previously. Analyses showed that larger triggering wave amplitudes, and perhaps lower frequencies (<~0.03 Hz), may enhance the probability of triggering tremor. However, neither the maximum amplitude in the time domain or in a particular frequency band, nor the geometric relationship of the wavefield to the tremor source faults alone ensures a high probability of triggering. Triggered tremor at the two sweet spots also does not occur during slow slip events visually detectable in GPS data, although slow slip below the detection threshold may have facilitated tremor triggering.

Alaska↗
USGS2012

Reservoir analysis of the Denver earthquakes: A case of induced seismicity

Injection of fluid wastes into the fractured Precambrian crystalline bedrock beneath the Rocky Mountain Arsenal near Denver triggered earthquakes in the 1960's. An analysis, based on the assumption that fluid flow in the fractured reservoir can be approximated by flow in a porous medium, is presented. The configuration and hydrologic properties of the reservoir are determined from two lines of evidence: (1) locations of earthquake hypocenters determined by seismic arrays installed at the Arsenal and (2) observed long-term decline in fluid levels in the injection well. Together these two sets of data indicate that a long, narrow reservoir, aligned in the direction N 60°W, exists. The reservoir is 3.35 km in width, extends 30.5 km to the northwest and infinitely to the southeast, and spans a depth interval from 3.7 to 7.0 km below land surface. It has a transmissivity of 1.08×10-5 m2/s and a storage coefficient of 1.0×10-5. Computed pressure buildup along the length of the reservoir is compared with the spatial distribution of earthquake epicenters. The comparison shows that earthquakes are confined to that part of the reservoir where the pressure buildup exceeds 32 bars. This critical value is interpreted as the pressure buildup above which earthquakes occur. The migration of earthquake epicenters away from the injection well, a phenomenon noted by previous investigators, can be accounted for by the outward propagation of the critical pressure buildup. The analysis is extended to examining the effects of rapid flow in fractures opened by high injection pressure. The results show that the effect is confined to a small region within 1 km of the injection well. The existence of a critical pressure buildup above which earthquakes occur is completely consistent with the theory on the role of fluid pressure in fault movement as presented by Hubbert and Rubey.

Colorado↗
USGS2020

Hawaiian hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus semotus) behavior at wind turbines on Maui

This study examined the activity of the endemic Hawaiian hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus semotus) at wind turbines operated by Auwahi Wind Energy, LLC, on southern Maui Island, from August to November 2018. The research was conducted to assess the potential effect of wind speed and turbine operation on bat presence and behavior and compared information obtained from both acoustic monitoring and thermal videography. During the four months of nightly surveillance at four wind turbines, we observed 384 visual (videographic) and 244 acoustic detection events involving bats. Bats were infrequently detected, averaging 0.08 events per hour for both visual and acoustic samples. Detections occurred throughout the monitoring period, but bat presence was only evident for a fraction (acoustic: 30%; visual: 44%) of the turbine-nights sampled. Bats were present throughout the night, but detections exhibited a unimodal peak centered on the first third of the night, with events largely absent in the latter half of the night and no apparent seasonal trend towards earlier or later occurrence within nights. However, a decline in the visual detection rate was noted over the four-month period (a similar assessment was not available from acoustic samples due to missing data for much of the later months). Visual bat detections were not significantly correlated over nights (i.e., temporally), but were positively associated among turbines (i.e., spatially). Visual detections were generally brief (median = 9.0 sec), infrequent (median time between events = 49.0 min), and involved single passes (57%) largely comprised of a single bat (94%). The amount of time during which bats were visually observed amounted to only 0.05% of total videographic monitoring (2.5 hours of 5,066 total hours). Although not directly comparable to the video results because of differences in the volume of airspace sampled and nature of observation, acoustic detection events were similarly brief (median = 6.0 sec), infrequent (median time between passes = 38.8 min), and also composed only 0.05% of the total period of acoustic monitoring (1.6 hours of 3,036 total hours). Most visual observations (61%) were of individuals flying at some point during the event to within about 15 m of the turbine nacelle (machinery housing atop the monopole). Erratic flight paths were the most prevalent flight type with bats often repeatedly approaching and circling the nacelle. Terminal-phase (“feeding buzz”) calls were only noted in 3% of all acoustic events. Bats were most frequently detected visually at relatively low wind speeds (median = 3.4 m/sec); however, 10% of events occurred at wind speeds over 8.5 m/sec. Nightly bat detection rates for the four-month period of monitoring were negatively correlated with total daily precipitation. Generalized linear mixed model analysis confirmed that detection rates were negatively associated with wind speed and precipitation and indicated a positive relation with intermittent wind speed and its consequent effect on turbine blade rotation (i.e., frequent intervals of starting and stopping). The co-occurrence of bat detection obtained from videographic and acoustic monitoring methods was generally low, and in instances when individuals were visually observed, bats were detected acoustically during only 12% (within a 10-minute window), 22% (within a 2-hour window), and 56% (at some point during the entire night) of such events. Most visual detections (65% within a 2-hour window) lacking an acoustic detection involved bats observed flying within about 15 m of the turbine nacelle on which acoustic detector microphones were situated.

Hawaii↗
USGS2010

Relationship and variation of qPCR and culturable enterococci estimates in ambient surface waters are predictable

The quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) method provides rapid estimates of fecal indicator bacteria densities that have been indicated to be useful in the assessment of water quality. Primarily because this method provides faster results than standard culture-based methods, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is currently considering its use as a basis for revised ambient water quality criteria. In anticipation of this possibility, we sought to examine the relationship between qPCR-based and culture-based estimates of enterococci in surface waters. Using data from several research groups, we compared enterococci estimates by the two methods in water samples collected from 37 sites across the United States. A consistent linear pattern in the relationship between cell equivalents (CCE), based on the qPCR method, and colony-forming units (CFU), based on the traditional culturable method, was significant (P < 0.05) at most sites. A linearly decreasing variance of CCE with increasing CFU levels was significant (P < 0.05) or evident for all sites. Both marine and freshwater sites under continuous influence of point-source contamination tended to reveal a relatively constant proportion of CCE to CFU. The consistency in the mean and variance patterns of CCE versus CFU indicates that the relationship of results based on these two methods is more predictable at high CFU levels (e.g., log 10 CFU > 2.0/100 mL) while uncertainty increases at lower CFU values. It was further noted that the relative error in replicated qPCR estimates was generally higher than that in replicated culture counts even at relatively high target levels, suggesting a greater need for replicated analyses in the qPCR method to reduce relative error. Further studies evaluating the relationship between culture and qPCR should take into account analytical uncertainty as well as potential differences in results of these methods that may arise from sample variability, different sources of pollution, and environmental factors.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS1998

A note on conservative transport in anisotropic, heterogeneous porous media in the presence of small-amplitude transients

The late-time macrodispersion coefficients are obtained for the case of flow in the presence of a small-scale deterministic transient in a three-dimensional anisotropic, heterogeneous medium. The transient is assumed to affect only the velocity component transverse to the mean flow direction and to take the form of a periodic function. For the case of a highly stratified medium, these late-time macrodispersion coefficients behave largely as the standard coefficients used in the transport equation. Only in the event that the medium is isotropic is it probable that significant deviations from the standard coefficients would occur.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS1891

Index to the known fossil insects of the world, including myriapods and arachnids

With the view of furthering study in the too neglected field of fossil insects, I transmit herewith for publication the card catalogue of described fossil insects which I have used for twenty years and kept constantly up to date, and which has greatly facilitated my own researches. It is believed to be practically complete. At least where insects are figured, and in many other cases where they are the first or only references from a given locality, entries are given where only the genus, the family, or even the order is mentioned. This has been done because the early literature of fossil insects is essentially vague and general, but it should not for that reason be wholly overlooked ; and to-day our knowledge of the occurrence of insects of a particular locality, even when of recent discovery, is not infrequently confined to statements of a general nature, which, if not brought to view or mind in a list like this, would be lost sight of, while their recognition may lead to further local investigation, to the earlier benefit of science. It is in no sense a systematic catalogue, and except occasionally in the notes contains no immediate results of investigation. No questions of synonymy are settled. The entries are made as the authors quoted gave them, with only the corrections of spelling required; it follows that the same insect appears at several points, to which the student is referred by full cross-references, and that more than one insect may (though probably rarely does) figure under one name. In one or two such instances, where the same name has been given by inadvertence to two totally different creatures, the later one is separated from the earlier. For convenience' sake, the entries are grouped into large sections, nearly identical with those I have employed in my systematic review of fossil insects (Bulletin 31, U. S. Geological Survey), by which method the insects from the Primary, Secondary, and Tertiary rocks are kept distinct; but otherwise the entries are purely alphabetical under the orders. It should be noticed, however, that the vague references to groups higher than genera are brought together at the beginning of each alphabet, first the most vague, and then those which permit some alphabetization. In these cases the primary or secondary alphabetization is first by authors, second by dates, and in all cases where under one entry there is more than one date the order therein is chronological. In a previous bulletin (Bulletin 69, U. S. Geological Survey) is given a complete bibliography of the literature from which these entries are taken, and the two works are thus complementary to each other.

Bulletin↗
USGS1904

Analyses of rocks from the laboratory of the United States Geological Survey, 1880-1903

The present Geological Survey of the United States was organized in 1879. In 1880 a chemical laboratory was established at Denver, in connection with the Colorado work, in charge of Dr. W. F. Hillebrand, with whom were associated Mr. Antony Guyard and, later, Mr. L. G. Eakins. In 1882 Dr. W. H. Melville was placed in charge of a second laboratory at San Francisco, and in the autumn of 1883 the central laboratory was started in Washington, with myself as chief chemist. In November, 1885, Doctor Hillebrand was transferred to Washington; early in 1888 he was followed by Mr. Eakins, and the Denver laboratory was discontinued. In the spring of 1890 Doctor Melville also was transferred to Washington, and since then the chemical work of the Survey has been concentrated at headquarters. Up to January 1, 1904, over 5,300 analyses have been made in the laboratory at Washington. These represent rocks, minerals, ores, waters, sediments, coals, metals, and so on through all the range of substances with which geology has to do. There were also some hundreds of analyses made in the laboratories at Denver and San Francisco. A fair amount of research work upon mineralogical and analytical problems has also been done. In all of this work the following chemists have been employed: E. T. Allen, Charles Catlett, T. M. Chatard, F. W. Clarke, L. G. Eakins, F. A. Gooch, Antony Guyard, W. F. Hillebrand, W. H. Melville, R. B. Riggs, W. T. Schaller, E. A. Schneider, George Steiger, H. N. Stokes, E. C. Sullivan, William Valentine, and J. E. Whitfield. As many as eight of these have been at work simultaneously; at present only six are connected with the Survey. Other officers of the Survey have been occupied more or less with chemical questions; but the men named in this list were connected directly with the laboratory. Some work for the chemical division has also been done by chemists not regularly on the rolls of the Survey; but their analyses, with the exception of a single group to be noted later, do not fall within the scope of this paper.

Bulletin↗
USGS2023

Evidence for infection influencing survival of the freshwater copepod Salmincola californiensis, a parasite of Pacific salmon and trout

Objective We explore apparent infection of Salmincola californiensis arising during investigations involving this lernaeopodid copepod parasitic on Pacific salmon and trout Oncorhynchus spp. Methods We noted occasional unusual coloration of adult female copepods collected from the wild. These females were bright blue and pink in contrast to the cream white coloration characteristic of the copepod. We also observed that similar color patterns developed under laboratory settings when copepod eggs were held for hatching. In paired egg cases, we found consistent hatching failure of blue and pink eggs and patterns in apparent disease development that would be consistent with both vertical and horizontal transmission. Result Attempts to identify the cause of the apparent infection using genetic methods and transmission electron microscopy were inconclusive. Conclusion Iridovirus infection was initially suspected, but bacterial infection is also plausible. This apparent reduced hatching success of S. californiensis warrants further exploration as it could reduce local abundances. Given the potential importance of a disease impacting this copepod, a parasite that itself affects endangered and commercially important Pacific salmon and trout, future research would benefit from clarification of the apparent infection through additional sequencing, primer development, visualization, and exploration into specificity and transmission.

Journal of Aquatic Animal Health↗
USGS2023

WellSTIC: A cost-effective sensor for performing point dilution tests to measure groundwater velocity in shallow aquifers

Many individual measurement points are required to characterize groundwater velocity within an aquifer. Groundwater velocity is most commonly measured using a network of >5 cm diameter monitoring wells, which, if not already present at a site, are expensive and labor-intensive to install. Drive-point piezometers—simple, cost-effective wells that can be installed by hand—are a common tool for sampling groundwater in shallow, alluvial aquifers, but most groundwater velocity measurement techniques require equipment that is too large for these narrow (usually <2 cm inside diameter) piezometers. In this technical note, we introduce a low-cost sensor and well packer system (<$90 USD) for performing point dilution tests in narrow piezometers. Field data show that the magnitude of groundwater velocity measured with this technique agrees with velocities computed from natural gradient tracer tests. Additionally, with proper calibration, these sensors can be used to continuously monitor in-well specific conductance, either during inter-well tracer tests with saline tracers or for water quality monitoring. This system is a viable tool for rapid assessment of the magnitude of groundwater velocity in shallow aquifers.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2011

A short note on ground-motion recordings from the M 7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake and ground-motion prediction equations in the Central and Eastern United States

The 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (M 7.9) occurred along the western edge of the eastern China SCR and was well recorded by modern strong-motion instruments: 93 strong-motion stations within 1.4 to 300 km rupture distance recorded the main event. Preliminary comparisons show some similarities between ground-motion attenuation in the Wenchuan region and the central and eastern United States, suggesting that ground motions from the Wenchuan earthquake could be used as a database providing constraints for developing GMPEs for large earthquakes in the central and eastern United States.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2003

User's Manual for the National Water-Quality Assessment Program Invertebrate Data Analysis System (IDAS) Software: Version 3

The Invertebrate Data Analysis System (IDAS) software provides an accurate, consistent, and efficient mechanism for analyzing invertebrate data collected as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program and stored in the Biological Transactional Database (Bio-TDB). The IDAS software is a stand-alone program for personal computers that run Microsoft (MS) Windows?. It allows users to read data downloaded from Bio-TDB and stored either as MS Excel? or MS Access? files. The program consists of five modules. The Edit Data module allows the user to subset, combine, delete, and summarize community data. The Data Preparation module allows the user to select the type(s) of sample(s) to process, calculate densities, delete taxa based on laboratory processing notes, combine lifestages or keep them separate, select a lowest taxonomic level for analysis, delete rare taxa, and resolve taxonomic ambiguities. The Calculate Community Metrics module allows the user to calculate over 130 community metrics, including metrics based on organism tolerances and functional feeding groups. The Calculate Diversities and Similarities module allows the user to calculate nine diversity and eight similarity indices. The Data export module allows the user to export data to other software packages and produce tables of community data that can be imported into spreadsheet and word-processing programs. Though the IDAS program was developed to process invertebrate data downloaded from USGS databases, it will work with other data sets that are converted to the USGS (Bio-TDB) format. Consequently, the data manipulation, analysis, and export procedures provided by the IDAS program can be used by anyone involved in using benthic macroinvertebrates in applied or basic research.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2024

Tissue distribution and temporal and spatial assessment of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) in the mid-Atlantic United States

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have become an environmental issue worldwide. A first step to assessing potential adverse effects on fish populations is to determine if concentrations of concern are present in a region and if so, in which watersheds. Hence, plasma from adult smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu collected at 10 sites within 4 river systems in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States, from 2014 to 2019, was analyzed for 13 PFAS. These analyses were directed at better understanding the presence and associations with land use attributes in an important sportfish. Four substances, PFOS, PFDA, PFUnA, and PFDoA, were detected in every plasma sample, with PFOS having the highest concentrations. Sites with mean plasma concentrations of PFOS below 100 ng/ml had the lowest percentage of developed landcover in the upstream catchments. Sites with moderate plasma concentrations (mean PFOS concentrations between 220 and 240 ng/ml) had low (< 7.0) percentages of developed land use but high (> 30) percentages of agricultural land use. Sites with mean plasma concentrations of PFOS > 350 ng/ml had the highest percentage of developed land use and the highest number PFAS facilities that included military installations and airports. Four of the sites were part of a long-term monitoring project, and PFAS concentrations of samples collected in spring 2017, 2018, and 2019 were compared. Significant annual differences in plasma concentrations were noted that may relate to sources and climatic factors. Samples were also collected at two sites for tissue (plasma, whole blood, liver, gonad, muscle) distribution analyses with an expanded analyte list of 28 PFAS. Relative tissue distributions were not consistent even within one species of similar ages. Although the long-chained legacy PFAS were generally detected more frequently and at higher concentrations, emerging compounds such as 6:2 FTS and GEN X were detected in a variety of tissues.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗
USGS2018

Sperm quality biomarkers complement reproductive and endocrine parameters in investigating environmental contaminants in common carp (Cyprinus carpio) from the Lake Mead National Recreation Area

Lake Mead National Recreational Area (LMNRA) serves as critical habitat for several federally listed species and supplies water for municipal, domestic, and agricultural use in the Southwestern U.S. Contaminant sources and concentrations vary among the sub-basins within LMNRA. To investigate whether exposure to environmental contaminants is associated with alterations in male common carp ( Cyprinus carpio ) gamete quality and endocrine- and reproductive parameters, data were collected among sub-basins over 7 years (1999–2006). Endpoints included sperm quality parameters of motility , viability, mitochondrial membrane potential, count, morphology, and DNA fragmentation; plasma components were vitellogenin (VTG), 17ß-estradiol, 11-keto-testosterone, triiodothyronine, and thyroxine. Fish condition factor, gonadosomatic index, and gonadal histology parameters were also measured. Diminished biomarker effects were noted in 2006, and sub-basin differences were indicated by the irregular occurrences of contaminants and by several associations between chemicals (e.g., polychlorinated biphenyls, hexachlorobenzene , galaxolide, and methyl triclosan) and biomarkers (e.g., plasma thyroxine, sperm motility and DNA fragmentation). By 2006, sex steroid hormone and VTG levels decreased with subsequent reduced endocrine disrupting effects. The sperm quality bioassays developed and applied with carp complemented endocrine and reproductive data, and can be adapted for use with other species.

Lake Mead National Recreation Area↗
USGS2020

Assessing the value of removing earthquake-hazard-related epistemic uncertainties, exemplified using average annual loss in California

To aid in setting scientific research priorities, we assess the potential value of removing each of the epistemic uncertainties currently represented in the US Geological Survey California seismic-hazard model, using average annual loss (AAL) as the risk metric of interest. Given all the uncertainties, represented with logic-tree branches, we find a mean AAL of $3.94 billion. The modal value is 17.5% lower than the mean, and there is a 78% chance that the true AAL value is more than 10% away from the mean, and a 5% chance that it is a factor 2.1 greater or lower than the mean. We quantify the extent to which resolving each uncertainty improves the AAL estimate. The most influential branch is one that adds additional epistemic uncertainty to ground motion models, but others are found to be influential as well, such as the rate of M ≥ 5 events throughout the region. We discuss the broader implications of our findings, and note that the time dependence caused by spatiotemporal clustering can be much more influential on AAL than the epistemic uncertainties explored here.

California↗
USGS2003

Assessment of lake sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ) spawning efforts in the lower St. Clair River, Michigan

One of the most threatened remaining populations of lake sturgeon in the Great Lakes is found in the connecting channels between Lake Huron and Lake Erie. Only two spawning grounds are presently known to be active in this region, and both are in the St. Clair River. The spawning reef in the St. Clair River delta has been recently colonized by round gobies ( Neogobius melanostomus ) in densities up to 25/m 2 , raising concerns regarding predation on the benthic-oriented eggs and larvae of the sturgeon. Investigations in 1998&ndash;1999 showed that while round goby predation does occur, a number of other factors may be equally affecting sturgeon spawning success, including few spawning adults (< 60), suspected poaching pressure, low retention rate of eggs on the reef, low hatch rate (~0.5%), the presence of organic contaminants, and predation from native and exotic invertebrates and fish. Overall, we estimate that less than 1% of the eggs deposited during a spawning run survive to hatch. We were able to increase the egg hatch rate to 16% by placing eggs in predator-exclusion chambers on the reef. The fate of the larvae is uncertain. Two weeks after hatching, no larvae were found on the reef. We were unable to find them anywhere else in the river, nor was predation on larvae noted in either year. There were factors other than predation affecting larval survival in 1999. There was a higher silt load on the reef than in 1998 and large numbers of dead larvae were found. Recruitment success from this site could be improved by utilizing techniques to increase the number of eggs on the reef, such as reducing the illegal take of adult fish and by placing eggs in predator-exclusion chambers to increase hatch rate.

Michigan↗