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USGS2007

Applying radar technology to migratory bird conservation and management: Strengthening and expanding a collaborative

Executive Summary Understanding the factors affecting migratory bird and bat populations during all three phases of their life cycle—breeding, nonbreeding, and migration—is critical to species conservation planning. This includes the need for information about these species’ responses to natural challenges, as well as information about the effects of human activities and structures. Habitats and other resources critical to migrants during passage and stopover are being destroyed, degraded, and threatened by human activities. Birds and bats are also uniquely susceptible to human use of the airspace. Wind turbines, communication and power transmission towers, and other tall structures, known to cause bird and bat mortality, are being erected or proposed in increasing numbers across the country. In addition, the potential for bird/aircraft collisions poses human safety threats. Management and regulatory agencies, conservation organizations, and industry currently lack the information they need to meet their missions and statutory responsibilities. The biological data available from various radar technologies offer a unique opportunity to learn more about the spatiotemporal distribution patterns, flight characteristics, and habitat use of “aero-fauna.” Recognizing the opportunities presented by radar technologies, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), and university partners collaborated first on individual projects and then in a broader, informal “collaborative” to coordinate their radar-related research and work together to develop the suite of products needed for conservation of birds and bats. Having produced two summary documents (Sojda and others, 2005; Ruth and others, 2005), the next objective was to convene a workshop for researchers, management and regulatory agencies, and other interested parties. The focus of this initial workshop was on strengthening the existing USGS-USFWS-university partnership and expanding the “collaborative” to include new Federal agency partners. The subject matter was centered on discussing available technologies, appropriate applications, management-related needs, and ways to strengthen collaborative research and conservation efforts. The workshop opened with presentations about the history of the “radar collaborative,” a description of the workshop objectives and focuses, and a summary of resource management and regulatory needs. Scientific presentations describing current research projects or subjects followed, given by USGS scientists, as well as scientists from other Federal agencies, academia, conservation and ornithological organizations, and a private contracting firm. Presenters addressed a wide variety of management issues including siting of wind-power facilities, bird/aircraft collisions, effects of hurricanes Katrina and Rita on bird migration, bird use of Conservation Reserve Program land, defining bird migration patterns at a broad regional scale, and associating migrant birds with their stopover habitats. Presentations described a variety of radar technologies including NEXRAD weather surveillance radar, modified mobile marine radar, military tracking radar, pencil beam radar, and dual polarization radar, as well as complementary techniques and analysis methods such as acoustic monitoring, thermal imaging, artificial intelligence, and individual-based modeling. Key issues, themes, and questions identified during the open discussions that followed fell into five main categories: (1) agency needs and challenges; (2) radar technology and applications—technical questions and issues; (3) tools and resources for managers and researchers; (4) standardization of protocols; and (5) collaborative opportunities. Participants identified the following management, regulatory, or business issues facing them which may be addressed with radar technologies: tall structures; wind turbines; identification and protection of key habitats; assessment of management activities; and bird/aircraft strikes. Participants frequently expressed the need for specific information about which radar technologies are best used for answering particular questions. User groups emphasized the importance of clear, defensible scientific information on which they can base their activities. In turn, researchers emphasized their need for clearly defined, specific questions from managers so that they can design and conduct the required research. Discussions about technical issues requiring further research and collaboration included target identity, ground-truthing, linking migrants to habitat, and standardized protocols for applied research. Workshop participants identified and endorsed a series of seven action items that would promote collaboration and begin to address key issues identified at the workshop: Action Item #1 : Establish a working subgroup to address large-scale surveillance radar standardization issues. Action Item #2 : Establish a working subgroup to address small-scale radar standardization issues. Action Item #3 : Bring management and regulatory agencies together to identify the three most important information needs for each key management issue relating to radar technologies. Action Item #4 : Develop Fact Sheet(s) to provide information about radar technology applications to migratory bird and bat conservation issues. Action Item #5 : Create a “radar collaborative” Website to provide information about radar biology applications, contacts, publications, and so forth. Action Item #6 : Formalize and expand the USGS-USFWS “radar collaborative.” Action Item #7 : Advance basic research, such as target identity and validation, which will support and improve our abilities to apply radar technologies to conservation objectives. There was considerable interest in expanding the “radar collaborative” to include those agencies, organizations, and industries represented at the workshop. It was felt that the publication of the workshop proceedings, implementation of action items, and additional future meetings or workshops will be crucial in strengthening the “radar collaborative” effort and promoting the use of these valuable technologies for conserving migratory species.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2007

Response of roseate tern to a shoreline protection project on Falkner Island, Connecticut

Construction was initiated following the 2000 tern breeding season for Phase 1 of a planned two-phase "Shoreline Protection and Erosion Control Project" at the Falkner Island Unit of the USFWS Stewart B. McKinney National Wildlife Refuge located in Long Island Sound off the coast of Guilford, CT. When the Common Tern ( Sterna hirundo ) and federally endangered Roseate Tern ( S. dougallii ) arrived in spring 2001, they encountered several major habitat changes from what had existed in previous years. These changes included: a rock revetment covering most of the former nesting habitat on the beach from the northwestern section around the northern tip and covering about 60% of the eastern side; an elevated 60- x 4-m shelf covering the beach and lower bank of the southwestern section; and about 2,000 sq m of devegetated areas on top of the island on the northeast side above the revetment, and about one-third of the southern half of the island. The southwest shelf was created by bulldozing and compacting extra construction fill and in situ materials. This shelf differed in internal structure from the main revetment on the north and eastern sections of the island because it lacked the deep internal crevices of the revetment. The deep internal crevices were created from the large stones and boulders (up to 2 tons) used in the construction of the main revetment. Small rock and gravel was used to fill the crevices to within 3 feet (0.9 m) of the surface of the revetment. Because half-buried tires and nest boxes for the six Roseate Tern ( Sterna dougallii ) sub-colony areas were deployed in similar patterns on the remaining beach, and nest boxes were placed on the newly elevated shelf areas several meters above previous locations on the now-covered beach areas, the distribution of Roseate Tern nests did not change much from 2000 to 2001. However, the movements of Roseate Tern chicks - in many cases led by their parents towards traditional hiding places - into the labyrinth of subterranean channels, especially in the main revetment area, made it difficult to measure chick growth and productivity as had been done for more than 12 years prior to construction. Also, observations of color-banded adults that were unable to locate and feed their young inside the main revetment, and of adults returning to courtship behavior and renesting after having hatched chicks from their initial clutches, indicated that a minimum of 20% of the chicks (mostly first hatched A-chicks, which usually have high rates of survival to fledging) that entered the main revetment died after doing so in 2001. The mortality rate of Roseate Tern chicks that entered the secondary revetment on the southwest shelf, however, was not unusually high in 2001. In an attempt to reduce the likelihood of nesting and chick losses in these sub-colonies, a research team led by the USGS in 2002-2003 did not put nest boxes on the northeast and east shelf areas where previous losses had been high. However, losses of tern eggs and young chicks to predatory Black-crowned Night Herons ( Nycticorax nycticorax ) were so great in 2002-2003 that few Roseate Tern chicks survived long enough to move into the main revetment area and little comparative survival data were collected. The USFWS continues to remove predatory night herons, to monitor the location and success of nesting Roseate Terns and to fill in some of problem areas near the tern nests in the main revetment. The extensive chick-searching fieldwork and observational procedures used by the USGS-led research team to determine the growth and survival of the Roseate Tern chicks at Falkner Island were not used in 2004-2005. The number of chicks lost in the revetment during these years is not known. Without additional fill, loss of chicks of this endangered species in the main revetment may rise again even though the night heron predation problem has been reduced.

Connecticut↗

USGS2021

Capacity assessment for Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) and future integrated monitoring and predictive science at the U.S. Geological Survey

Executive Summary Managers of our Nation’s resources face unprecedented challenges driven by the convergence of increasing, competing societal demands and a changing climate that affects the stability, vulnerability, and predictability of those resources. To help meet these challenges, the scientific community must take advantage of all available technologies, data, and integrative Earth systems modeling capacity to better inform resource and risk management decisions. This is the overarching goal of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) vision: “By 2030, the USGS will deliver well integrated observations and predictions of the future state of natural systems—water, ecosystems, energy, minerals, hazards—at regional and national scales, working primarily with federal, state, and academic partners to develop and operate the capability” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2021). Providing more integrated Earth systems science and actionable information to decision makers, stakeholders, and the public requires a better understanding of the depth and distribution of existing capacity (capabilities, tools, and techniques) across the Bureau. Identifying existing capacity is also a critical first step toward gap analysis and targeted investments to increase capacity over time. The USGS formed a Capacity Assessment Team (CAT) and charged it with (1) conducting a Request for Information (RFI) to identify existing USGS expertise and activities supportive of integrated and predictive science to inform decision making, (2) developing a strategy and proof-of-concept for a continuously updated capacity assessment capability, and (3) identifying lessons learned to inform development of best practices for future capacity assessment efforts. The RFI took the form of a survey, with content guided by the science and technology needs identified in a USGS report titled “Grand Challenges for Integrated U.S. Geological Survey Science—A Workshop Report” (Jenni and others, 2017). The 44-question survey provided respondents the ability to rate their level of experience with a suite of priority disciplines, analysis and modeling approaches, technologies, and stakeholder engagement strategies and to enter optional narrative text for supporting context. An introductory portion focused on general science capacity assessment, followed by three sections targeting capabilities related to the foundational components of EarthMAP: (1) data and information integration, (2) integrated predictive science, and (3) actionable information. The survey results provided a high-level snapshot of USGS capacity in the targeted areas. Respondents (1,035 individuals) represented approximately 13 percent of the USGS across all mission areas and regions. Seventy-four percent of the respondents held a science-focused position title and the remainder had position titles in information technology, computer science, management, administrative, or other (contractors, volunteers, emeritus, and unknown). To provide greater insight into respondent capabilities and activities, information from the U.S. Department of the Interior and USGS enterprise information systems were used to further characterize topical expertise and organizational associations of survey respondents. To address the ongoing need to assess the Bureau’s capacity to address integrated predictive science priorities, the CAT developed a software-based proof-of-concept called the Integrated Science Assessment Information Database (iSAID) for assembling various information sources together toward making the full extent of USGS capabilities and scientific assets available for routine capacity assessment. This proof-of-concept is intended to serve as a catalyst for further development. The process of implementing the EarthMAP capacity assessment survey, analyzing survey responses, and developing the proof-of-concept resulted in lessons learned, findings, and recommendations. Example scenarios throughout the report demonstrate how capacity assessment data can inform science planning. Three overarching findings and recommendations are: (1) Finding: Capacity is limited in some critical disciplines, skills, and technology applications, but “sufficient” depends on the question and the need relative to availability at a given point in time. Recommendation: Develop an on-demand capacity assessment framework that enables rapid identification and evaluation of existing and available expertise to support decision needs as they arise. (2) Finding: Institutional barriers and lack of awareness constrain the ability of USGS staff to adopt new technologies, collaborate across administrative boundaries, and deliver actionable information to stakeholders in a timely manner. However, these barriers are not universally experienced. Recommendation: Pursue more targeted inquiries to clarify which institutional barriers are obstructing the adoption of new technologies and approaches or the sharing of expertise and equipment across organizational and regional boundaries. These inquiries should inform USGS leadership, mission areas, and regions whether policies can be revised or whether a lack of understanding is creating perceived obstacles. Highlight cases when staff have successfully adopted new technologies and approaches to advance EarthMAP priorities and provide actionable information in a timely manner to spread awareness of how perceived obstacles can be navigated and overcome when appropriate. (3) Finding: Examples of people and projects integrating across disciplines and scales and applying advanced approaches to meet complex stakeholder needs exist. Such examples provide transfer value across the spectrum from approach to decision making. Many projects, already underway, appear to meet elements of the EarthMAP vision, and the USGS has people who can provide leadership in multiple types of specific integrated science efforts. Recommendation: Use these findings as a starting point for near-term strategic planning for integrated science. Highlight, incentivize, and build on existing interdisciplinary predictive science and information delivery activities across the USGS to advance toward further realization of an EarthMAP capacity. The CAT efforts to develop and assess existing USGS capacity to advance the EarthMAP vision revealed a fundamental challenge for not only this effort but any effort to assess existing capacity: A considerable amount of thought, time, and effort is required to survey and assess capabilities and tools available to support a given need, yet best results are still likely to provide an incomplete assessment. To better meet the frequent need to assess capabilities, tools, products, and projects that address an expressed strategic priority, the CAT proposes the concept of an on-demand capacity assessment framework supported by a software package that dynamically pulls and integrates information from existing USGS information systems and public domain registries. Although existing USGS enterprise information systems currently lack the structure, cross-system consistency, interoperability, and stability to support a continuously updated capacity assessment capability, we identify reasonable near-term steps to improve the utility of information gathered on expertise and project capacity and to improve the consistency and completeness of information and the ability of USGS systems to share that information. The ability to search and characterize this information will make future assessments of capacity faster, more complete, more efficient, and more targeted. This approach would grow the Bureau’s capacity knowledge over time, iteratively improving the ability to access, leverage, and synthesize existing capabilities and assets as well as identify and fill critical gaps. The greatest promise for developing integrated science could lie in linking across existing projects and expertise to create a multi-project capacity for addressing large, complex environmental issues.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2011

Characterization of salinity and selenium loading and land-use change in Montrose Arroyo, western Colorado, from 1992 to 2010

Salinity and selenium are naturally occurring and perva-sive in the lower Gunnison River Basin of Colorado, includ-ing the watershed of Montrose Arroyo. Although some of the salinity and selenium loading in the Montrose Arroyo study area is from natural sources, additional loading has resulted from the introduction of intensive irrigation in the water-shed. With increasing land-use change and the conversion from irrigated agricultural to urban land, land managers and stakeholders need information about the long-term effects of land-use change on salinity and selenium loading. In response to the need to advance salinity and selenium science, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Forum, and Colorado River Water Conservation District, developed a study to characterize salinity and selenium loading and how salinity and selenium sources may relate to land-use change in Montrose Arroyo. This report characterizes changes in salinity and selenium loading to Montrose Arroyo from March 1992 to February 2010 and the magnitude of land-use change between unirrigated desert, irrigated agricultural, and urban land-use/land-cover types, and discusses how the respective loads may relate to land-use change. Montrose Arroyo is an approximately 8-square-mile watershed in Montrose County in western Colorado. Salinity and selenium were studied in Montrose Arroyo in a 2001 study as part of a salinity- and selenium-control lateral project. The robust nature of the historical dataset indicated that Montrose Arroyo was a prime watershed for a follow-up study. Two sites from the 2001 study were used to monitor salinity and selenium loads in Montrose Arroyo in the follow-up study. Over the period of 2 water years and respective irrigation seasons (2008-2010), 27 water-quality samples were collected and streamflow measurements were made at the historical sites MA2 and MA4. Salinity and selenium concen-trations, loads, and streamflow were compared between the pre-lateral-project and post-growth periods and between the post-lateral-project and post-growth periods. No significant differences in streamflow, salinity (concen-tration and load), or selenium (concentration and load) were found at MA4 between the pre-lateral project and post-growth periods or between the post-lateral-project and post-growth periods. The statistical analysis indicated no significant dif-ferences in streamflow or salinity (both concentration and load) between the pre-lateral-project and post-growth periods or between the post-lateral-project and post-growth periods at MA2; however, selenium concentrations and loads were significantly greater between the pre-lateral-project and post-growth periods and between the post-lateral-project and post-growth periods at MA2. Land-use change between MA4 and MA2 may have contributed to the determined differences in selenium values, but the specific mechanisms causing the increases between periods are unknown. The size of the urbanized area in Montrose Arroyo was quantified for 1993, 2002, and 2009 by using a geographic information system (GIS) with imagery from the specified years. The greatest change in land use from 1993 to 2009 was the increase of urban land due to conversion from irrigated agricultural land. The conversion of previously unirrigated desert to urban land or irrigated agriculture could become more common if urbanization and development expands into the eastern part of the watershed because a majority of the un-urbanized land in eastern Montrose Arroyo is unirrigated desert. By applying GIS to the City of Montrose 2008 com-prehensive growth plan, it was estimated that approximately 786 acres of previously irrigated agricultural land will be converted to urban land and 689 acres of unirrigated desert will be converted to urban land under the plan scenario. New development on previously unirrigated land in shale areas would likely increase the potential for mobilization of sele-nium and salinity from new sources to Montrose Arroyo and the Lower Gunnison River Basin.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2018

Land subsidence along the California Aqueduct in west-central San Joaquin Valley, California, 2003–10

Extensive groundwater withdrawal from the unconsolidated deposits in the San Joaquin Valley caused widespread aquifer-system compaction and resultant land subsidence from 1926 to 1970—locally exceeding 8.5 meters. The importation of surface water beginning in the early 1950s through the Delta-Mendota Canal and in the early 1970s through the California Aqueduct resulted in decreased groundwater pumping, recovery of water levels, and a reduced rate of compaction in some areas of the San Joaquin Valley. However, drought conditions during 1976–77, 1987–92, and drought conditions and operational reductions in surface-water deliveries during 2007–10 decreased surface-water availability, causing pumping to increase, water levels to decline, and renewed compaction. Land subsidence from this compaction has reduced freeboard and flow capacity of the California Aqueduct, Delta-Mendota Canal, and other canals that deliver irrigation water and transport floodwater. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the California Department of Water Resources, assessed more recent land subsidence near a 145-kilometer reach of the California Aqueduct in the west-central part of the San Joaquin Valley as part of an effort to minimize future subsidence-related damages to the California Aqueduct. The location, magnitude, and stress regime of land-surface deformation during 2003–10 were determined by using data and analyses associated with extensometers, Global Positioning System surveys, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, spirit-leveling surveys, and groundwater wells. Comparison of continuous Global Positioning System, shallow-extensometer, and groundwater-level data indicated that most of the compaction in this area took place beneath the Corcoran Clay, the primary regional confining unit. The integration of measurements strengthens confidence in individual measurement methods and provides the information at spatial and temporal scales that water managers need to design and implement groundwater sustainability plans in compliance with California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act. Measurements of land-surface deformation during 2003–10 indicated that the parts of the California Aqueduct closest to the Coast Ranges in the west-central part of the San Joaquin Valley were fairly stable or minimally subsiding on an annual basis; some areas show seasonal periods of subsidence and uplift that resulted in little or no longer-term elevation loss. Many groundwater levels in these areas did not reach historical lows during 2003–10, indicating that deformation nearest the Coast Ranges was likely primarily elastic. Land-surface deformation measurements indicated that some parts of the California Aqueduct that traverse farther from the Coast Ranges toward the valley center subsided. Some parts of the California Aqueduct subsided locally, but generally the California Aqueduct is within part of a 12,000-square-kilometer area affected by 25 millimeters or more of subsidence during 2008–10, with maxima in Madera County, south of the town of El Nido near the San Joaquin River and the Eastside Bypass (540 millimeters), and in Tulare County, west of the town of Pixley (345 millimeters). Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar-derived subsidence maps for various periods during 2003–10 show that the area of maximum active subsidence (that is, the largest rates of subsidence) shifted from its historical (1926–70) location southwest of the town of Mendota to these areas nearer the valley center. Calculations indicated that the subsidence rate doubled in 2008 in parts of the study area. Water levels declined during 2007–10 in many shallow and deep wells in the most rapidly subsiding areas, where water levels in many deep wells reached their historical lows, indicating that subsidence measured during this period was largely inelastic. Continued groundwater-level and land-subsidence monitoring in the San Joaquin Valley is important because (1) operational- and drought-related reductions in surface-water deliveries since 1976 have resulted in increased groundwater pumping and associated water-level declines and land subsidence, (2) land use and associated pumping continue to change throughout the valley, and (3) subsidence management is stipulated in the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act. The availability of surface water remains uncertain; even during record-setting precipitation years, such as 2010–11, water deliveries fell short of requests and groundwater pumping was required to meet the irrigation demand. In some areas, the infrastructure is not available to supply surface water, and groundwater is the only source of water. Because of the expected continued demand for water and the limitations and uncertainty of surface-water supplies, groundwater pumping and associated land subsidence remains a concern. Spatially detailed information on land subsidence is needed to minimize future subsidence-related damages to the California Aqueduct and other infrastructure in the San Joaquin Valley, as well as alterations to natural resources such as stream gradients, water depths, and water temperatures. The integration of data on land-surface elevation, subsurface deformation, and water levels—particularly continuous measurements—enables the analysis of aquifer-system response to groundwater pumping, which in turn, enables estimation of the preconsolidation head and calculation of aquifer-system storage properties. This information can be used to improve numerical model simulations of groundwater flow and aquifer-system compaction and allow for consideration of land subsidence in the evaluation of water resource management alternatives and compliance with the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act.

California↗

USGS2005

Evaluation of geohydrologic framework, recharge estimates and ground-water flow of the Joshua Tree area, San Bernardino County, California

Ground water historically has been the sole source of water supply for the community of Joshua Tree in the Joshua Tree ground-water subbasin of the Morongo ground-water basin in the southern Mojave Desert. The Joshua Basin Water District (JBWD) supplies water to the community from the underlying Joshua Tree ground-water subbasin. The JBWD is concerned with the long-term sustainability of the underlying aquifer. To help meet future demands, the JBWD plans to construct production wells in the adjacent Copper Mountain ground-water subbasin. As growth continues in the desert, there may be a need to import water to supplement the available ground-water resources. In order to manage the ground-water resources and to identify future mitigating measures, a thorough understanding of the ground-water system is needed. The purpose of this study was threefold: (1) improve the understanding of the geohydrologic framework of the Joshua Tree and Copper Mountain ground-water subbasins, (2) determine the distribution and quantity of recharge using field and numerical techniques, and (3) develop a ground-water flow model that can be used to help manage the water resources of the region. The geohydrologic framework was refined by collecting and interpreting water-level and water-quality data, geologic and electric logs, and gravity data. The water-bearing deposits in the Joshua Tree and Copper Mountain ground-water subbasins are Quarternary alluvial deposits and Tertiary sedimentary and volcanic deposits. The Quarternary alluvial deposits were divided into two aquifers (referred to as the 'upper' and the 'middle' alluvial aquifers), which are about 600 feet (ft) thick, and the Tertiary sedimentary and volcanic deposits were assigned to a single aquifer (referred to as the 'lower' aquifer), which is as thick as 1,500 ft. The ground-water quality of the Joshua Tree and Copper Mountain ground-water subbasins was defined by collecting 53 ground-water samples from 15 wells (10 in the Joshua Tree ground-water subbasin and 5 in the Copper Mountain ground-water subbasin) between 1980 and 2002 and analyzing the samples for major ions, nutrients, and selected trace elements. Selected samples also were analyzed for oxygen-18, deuterium, tritium, and carbon-14. The water-quality data indicated that dissolved solids and nitrate concentrations were below regulatory limits for potable water; however, fluoride concentrations in the lower aquifer exceeded regulatory limits. Arsenic concentrations and chromium concentrations were generally below regulatory limits; however, arsenic concentrations measured in water from wells perforated in the lower aquifer exceeded regulatory limits. The carbon-14 activities ranged from 2 to 72 percent modern carbon and are consistent with uncorrected ground-water ages (time since recharge) of about 32,300 to 2,700 years before present. The oxygen-18 and deuterium composition of water sampled from the upper aquifer is similar to the volume-weighted composition of present-day winter precipitation indicating that winter precipitation was the predominant source of ground-water recharge. Field studies, conducted during water years 2001 through 2003 to determine the distribution and quantity of recharge, included installation of instrumented boreholes in selected washes and at a nearby control site. Core material and cuttings from the boreholes were analyzed for physical, chemical, and hydraulic properties. Instruments installed in the boreholes were monitored to measure changes in matric potential and temperature. Borehole data were supplemented with temperature data collected from access tubes installed at additional sites along study washes. Streambed hydraulic properties and the response of instruments to infiltration were measured using infiltrometers. Physical and geochemical data collected away from the stream channels show that direct infiltration of precipitation to depths below the root zone and subsequent gro

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS1982

Design concepts for a Global Telemetered Seismograph Network

This study represents a first step in developing an integrated, real-time global seismic data acquisition system a Global Telemetered Seismograph Network (GTSN). The principal objective of the GTSN will be to acquire reliable, high-quality, real-time seismic data for rapid location and analysis of seismic events. A secondary, but important, objective of the GTSN is to augment the existing off-line seismic data base available for research. The deployment of the GTSN will involve a variety of interrelated activities development of the data acquisition and receiving equipment, establishment of satellite and terrestrial communication links, site selection and preparation, training of station personnel, equipment installation, and establishment of support facilities. It is a complex program and the development of a sound management plan will be essential. The purpose of this study is not to fix design goals or dictate avenues of approach but to develop working concepts that may be used as a framework for program planning. The international exchange of seismic data has been an important factor in the progress that has been made during the past two decades in our understanding of earthquakes and global tectonics. The seismic data base available for analysis and research is derived principally from the Global Seismograph Network (GSN), which is funded and managed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The GSN comprises some 120 seismograph stations located in more than 60 countries of the world. Established during the 1960 s with the installation of the World-Wide Standardized Seismograph Network (WWSSN) , the GSN has been augmented in recent years by the installation of more advanced data systems, such as the Seismic Research Observatories (SRO), the modified High-Gain LongPeriod (ASRO) seismographs, and the digital WWSSN (DWWSSN). The SRO, ASRO, and DWWSSN stations have the common, distinctive feature of digital data recording, so they are known collectively as the Global Digital Seismograph Network (GDSN). The fundamental objective in operating the GSN is to create and update a seismic data base that is accessible without restrictions to organizations and research scientists throughout the world. The USGS provides cooperating stations with instrumentation, training, and continuing support, including supplies and on-site maintenance. In return, the host organization operates the equipment and sends the recorded data to the USGS. Analog data (seismograms) are microfilmed and about four million copies are requested annually by researchers. Digital data, which are recorded on magnetic tape, are organized by the USGS Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory (ASL) into networkday tapes and copies of the day tapes are furnished to data users through national and regional data centers. After copying, original data are returned to the stations and used for local research. Most of the stations in the GSN also provide the USGS with seismic readings « phase arrival times and amplitudes scaled from the seismograms. These readings are transmitted on a daily or biweekly basis via commercial or diplomatic communication channels. They are used by the USGS National Earthquake Information Service (NEIS) to determine the location and magnitude of earthquakes occurring throughout the world. The results are published monthly in bulletins that are distributed to the participating stations and virtually all scientific organizations that are involved in seismological studies. It is a much-valued service that provides a current, updated catalog of seismic activity on a global scale. The NEIS also has the responsibility for rapid reporting of large and potentially destructive earthquakes. The NEIS issues news bulletins as soon as possible after the occurrence of magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes (magnitude 5 or greater in the conterminous United States). The news bulletins are sent to disaster relief, public safety, and other interested organizations. Tsunami warnings issued to countries bordering the Pacific Ocean are based initially on earthquake location and magnitude data. Rapid reporting of earthquakes requires real-time waveform data or readings. Currently, signals are being telemetered from more than thirty stations in the United States to the NEIS, which is located in Golden, Colorado. An extension of the telemetry network to other countries will provide the seismological community with a significantly improved means of monitoring earthquake activity in real time; it will lower the response time for determining the location and magnitude of potentially destructive or tsunamigenic earthquakes and it will provide more timely information that may be needed by governments to respond promptly.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2020

Wind River subbasin restoration: Annual report of US..Geological Survey activities, January 2018 through December 2018

We sampled juvenile wild Steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss in headwater streams of the Wind River, WA, to characterize populations and investigate life-history metrics, particularly migratory patterns. We used Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT)-tagging and a series of instream PIT-tag interrogation systems (PTISs) to track juveniles. The Wind River subbasin is considered a wild Steelhead refuge by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW). No hatchery Steelhead have been planted in the Wind River subbasin since 1997, and hatchery adults are estimated to be less than one percent of spawners in most years (pers comm. Thomas Buehrens, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife). Our repeated headwater sampling of consistent sites in the Wind River subbasin has also allowed us to track relative abundance of Brook Trout, a non-native species to the Wind River. Our work is contributing to understanding of Steelhead population response to numerous restoration actions in the subbasin, including removal of Hemlock Dam from Trout Creek in 2009, where our PTISs are helping to quantify adult response. Data from our study, and companion work by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, are contributing to Bonneville Power Administration’s (BPA) Research Monitoring and Evaluation (RM&E) Program Strategy of Fish Population Status Monitoring (www.cbfish.org/ProgramStrategy.mvc/ViewProgramStrategySummary/1). Specifically this work addresses the sub-strategies of: 1) Assessing the Status and Trends of Diversity of Natural Origin Fish Populations and to Uncertainties Research regarding differing life histories of a wild Steelhead population, 2) Assessing the Status and Trend of Adult Natural Origin Fish Populations, and 3) Monitoring and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tributary Habitat Actions Relative to Environmental, Physical, or Biological Performance Objectives. Our headwaters parr PIT tagging, WDFW parr, smolt, and adult tagging and our instream PTISs are providing data on movements and life histories of parr, smolt, and adult Steelhead. During summer 2018, we PIT-tagged 1,592 age-0 and age-1 Steelhead parr in headwater areas of the Wind River subbasin to characterize population traits and investigate life-history diversity, including growth and pre-smolt downstream movement. Repeat headwater sampling and smolt trap operations provide opportunities for recapture, and instream PTISs and Columbia River infrastructure provide opportunity for detection of PIT-tagged fish. Throughout the year, we maintained a series of six instream PTISs to monitor movement of tagged Steelhead parr, smolts, and adults. Detections at the instream PTISs have demonstrated trends of age-0 and age-1 parr emigration from natal areas during summer and fall, in addition to the expected movement of parr and smolts in spring. Substantial numbers of parr make downstream movements as age-1 fish. We have estimated that from 15 to 33 percent of parr tagged as age-0 fish make downstream migrations at age-1 for additional rearing. We have estimated that from 1 to 27 percent of parr tagged as age-1 fish make downstream migrations during fall. These findings raise many questions about parr rearing strategies, habitat use, and success of these migrants and suggest a need for broader monitoring of juvenile Steelhead in some river systems to fully document juvenile production. Long-term monitoring of PIT-tagged fish is providing information on contribution of various life-history strategies to smolt production and adult returns. Movements of PIT-tagged adult Steelhead were recorded at instream PTISs. These data have allowed assessment of adult returns to tributary watersheds within the Wind River subbasin. Detection efficiency of adult PIT-tagged Steelhead at our primary adult-monitoring PTIS in Trout Creek has been greater than 92 percent during 6 of the past 7 years. This is providing excellent data to estimate adult returns to this watershed. Determination of adult use of tributary watersheds is providing data to help evaluate the efficacy of the removal of Hemlock Dam on Trout Creek. Hemlock Dam, located at rkm 2.0 of Trout Creek, was removed in summer 2009. The dam contributed to hydrologic impairment of Trout Creek and had potential negative effects on Steelhead. The improvements made to the upper Wind River PTIS (site code WRU at rkm 28.3; better site characteristics and grid power) during 2016 and 2017, and a planned new site in the Mine Reach of the upper Wind River, will allow estimates of subbasin adult escapement like those in Trout Creek. During 2018, we also completed planning and permitting with U.S. Forest Service for a new PTIS site at rkm 36 of the Wind River (the Mine Reach, mentioned above). This site will replace two sites (one in Paradise Creek and one at rkm 41 of the Wind River), which had operational challenges due to lack of adequate solar power and winter difficulties. The new Mine Reach PTIS site at rkm 36, will have better solar exposure, fewer winter operations difficulties, and provide opportunity to detect fish from juvenile sampling sites that were downstream of the previous two PTISs. The more consistent operation of the new Mine Reach PTIS site will increase our ability to estimate migrant abundance as all the juveniles tagged upstream of it will be subject to the same potential detection history, instead of three different potential detection histories as before. Additionally, with the new Mine Reach PTIS site lower in the watershed, it will subject more PIT-tagged adult Steelhead to detection and provide ability to generate a nonbiased adult-detection efficiency estimate for the WRU PTIS at rkm 28.3 of the Wind River. This will provide the opportunity to estimate yearly adult Steelhead abundance to the upper Wind watershed area. Permitting is complete and some supplies have been purchased to build and install this new site in 2019. Repeat sampling at consistent locations in the subbasin has allowed investigation into juvenile Steelhead growth patterns. Growth rates (relative change in weight) of age-0 PIT-tagged parr during summer are similar across the subbasin, but lower for age-1 parr in the Trout Creek watershed than the upper Wind River watershed. Yearly growth for parr tagged at age-0 is similar across the subbasin. Yearly growth for parr tagged at age-1 is lowest in Martha Creek, but similar elsewhere. Non-native Brook Trout are present in portions of the subbasin, chiefly the Trout Creek watershed, and repeat sampling has allowed us to index their prevalence. Percentage of catch that is Brook Trout at each of four sample sites in Trout Creek have declined from the period 1998 – 2003 to the period 2011 – 2018. There was a pattern of decline in percent of catch and number of Brook Trout at the Trout Creek sites from 2011 through 2016, though a slight upward trend during 2017 and 2018 has been evident. Evaluating and planning restoration efforts are of interest to many managers and agencies to ensure efficient use of resources. The evaluation of various life-histories of Steelhead within the Wind River subbasin will provide information to better track populations, and to direct habitat restoration and water allocation planning. Movement of Steelhead parr raises many questions regarding estimating juvenile abundance, origin, and habitat use within watersheds. Improved PTISs and focused PIT tagging of age-0 and age-1 Steelhead parr are increasingly allowing us to investigate such questions. Increasingly detailed Viable Salmonid Population information, such as that provided by PIT-tagging and instream PTISs networks like those in the Wind River subbasin, provide data to inform policy and management, as life-history strategies and production bottlenecks are identified and understood.

Washington↗

USGS2020

Groundwater levels in the Denver Basin bedrock aquifers of Douglas County, Colorado, 2011–19

Municipal and domestic water users in Douglas County, Colorado, rely on groundwater from the bedrock aquifers in the Denver Basin aquifer system as part of their water supply. The four principal Denver Basin bedrock aquifers are, from shallowest to deepest, the Dawson aquifer (divided administratively into “upper” and “lower” Dawson aquifers in Douglas County), the Denver aquifer, the Arapahoe aquifer, and the Laramie-Fox Hills aquifer. Increased groundwater pumping in response to rapid population growth and development has led to declining groundwater levels in Douglas County, where groundwater is a primary water source for densely populated and rural communities. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Rural Water Authority of Douglas County, began a study in 2011 to assess the groundwater resources of the Denver Basin bedrock aquifers within the county. The primary purpose of this report is to present a summary of groundwater levels measured during the study period (2011–19) and present results from statistical analyses of changes in groundwater-level elevations, reported above the land-surface datum, North American Vertical Datum of 1988, through time. During the study period, January 2011 through June 2019, discrete groundwater levels were routinely measured at 36 wells producing from Denver Basin bedrock aquifers within Douglas County. Of the 36 wells, 15 are instrumented with pressure transducers that record groundwater-level measurements at hourly intervals, and these data were temporally aggregated into time-series records. During 2011, wells were added to the monitoring network in phases, so that the start dates of the well records are noncontemporaneous. To keep temporal analysis among wells consistent, the periods of record used in statistical analyses were from February 2012 through February 2019 for the discrete data and from January 2012 through June 2019 for the time-series data. The upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, and Arapahoe aquifers had some wells with rises in calculated groundwater-level elevations, but most wells showed declines on the basis of statistically significant trends and the relative differences in static groundwater-level elevations between the February 2012 and February 2019 measurements. Neither of the two wells in the Laramie-Fox Hills aquifer showed significant trends in groundwater-level elevations, and these wells had few static discrete measurements, precluding a comparison between 2012 and 2019 static groundwater-level elevations. Of the 13 wells in the upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, and Arapahoe aquifers with significant trends in discrete groundwater-level elevation measurements, the records of 12 wells demonstrated negative trends during the study period. The upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, and Arapahoe aquifers had median significant trends of −0.23, −0.31, −0.92, and −2.26 feet per year, respectively. Although the Arapahoe aquifer had the greatest negative median trend, this median only represents one well with significant trends. Otherwise, the Denver aquifer had the next greatest negative trend, with a median trend of −0.92 foot per year. Significant trends in time-series groundwater-level elevations agreed with significant trends in discrete groundwater-level elevations; for all wells with statistically significant trends in discrete and in time-series groundwater-level elevation data, trend estimates from the two records were within 0.1 foot per year of each other. Potentiometric-surface maps of the upper Dawson, lower Dawson, and Denver aquifers, created using discrete static groundwater levels measured in February 2019, show that groundwater flow direction for the upper Dawson, lower Dawson, and Denver aquifers is generally from south to north. Results of this study could guide future groundwater monitoring in the county and aid in long-term planning of water resources.

Colorado↗

USGS2014

Delineation of marsh types of the Texas coast from Corpus Christi Bay to the Sabine River in 2010

Coastal zone managers and researchers often require detailed information regarding emergent marsh vegetation types for modeling habitat capacities and needs of marsh-reliant wildlife (such as waterfowl and alligator). Detailed information on the extent and distribution of marsh vegetation zones throughout the Texas coast has been historically unavailable. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation and collaboration with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service via the Gulf Coast Joint Venture, Texas A&M University-Kingsville, the University of Louisiana-Lafayette, and Ducks Unlimited, Inc., has produced a classification of marsh vegetation types along the middle and upper Texas coast from Corpus Christi Bay to the Sabine River. This study incorporates approximately 1,000 ground reference locations collected via helicopter surveys in coastal marsh areas and about 2,000 supplemental locations from fresh marsh, water, and “other” (that is, nonmarsh) areas. About two-thirds of these data were used for training, and about one-third were used for assessing accuracy. Decision-tree analyses using Rulequest See5 were used to classify emergent marsh vegetation types by using these data, multitemporal satellite-based multispectral imagery from 2009 to 2011, a bare-earth digital elevation model (DEM) based on airborne light detection and ranging (lidar), alternative contemporary land cover classifications, and other spatially explicit variables believed to be important for delineating the extent and distribution of marsh vegetation communities. Image objects were generated from segmentation of high-resolution airborne imagery acquired in 2010 and were used to refine the classification. The classification is dated 2010 because the year is both the midpoint of the multitemporal satellite-based imagery (2009–11) classified and the date of the high-resolution airborne imagery that was used to develop image objects. Overall accuracy corrected for bias (accuracy estimate incorporates true marginal proportions) was 91 percent (95 percent confidence interval [CI]: 89.2–92.8), with a kappa statistic of 0.79 (95 percent CI: 0.77–0.81). The classification performed best for saline marsh (user’s accuracy 81.5 percent; producer’s accuracy corrected for bias 62.9 percent) but showed a lesser ability to discriminate intermediate marsh (user’s accuracy 47.7 percent; producer’s accuracy corrected for bias 49.5 percent). Because of confusion in intermediate and brackish marsh classes, an alternative classification containing only three marsh types was created in which intermediate and brackish marshes were combined into a single class. Image objects were reattributed by using this alternative three-marsh-type classification. Overall accuracy, corrected for bias, of this more general classification was 92.4 percent (95 percent CI: 90.7–94.2), and the kappa statistic was 0.83 (95 percent CI: 0.81–0.85). Mean user’s accuracy for marshes within the four-marsh-type and three-marsh-type classifications was 65.4 percent and 75.6 percent, respectively, whereas mean producer’s accuracy was 56.7 percent and 65.1 percent, respectively. This study provides a more objective and repeatable method for classifying marsh types of the middle and upper Texas coast at an extent and greater level of detail than previously available for the study area. The seamless classification produced through this work is now available to help State agencies (such as the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department) and landscape-scale conservation partnerships (such as the Gulf Coast Prairie Landscape Conservation Cooperative and the Gulf Coast Joint Venture) to develop and (or) refine conservation plans targeting priority natural resources. Moreover, these data may improve projections of landscape change and serve as a baseline for monitoring future changes resulting from chronic and episodic stressors.

Texas↗

USGS2018

Wind River Subbasin Restoration, Annual report of U.S. Geological Survey activities, January 2016 through December 2016

We used Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT)-tagging and a series of instream PIT-tag interrogation systems (PTISs) to investigate life-histories, populations, and efficacy of habitat restoration actions for steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss in the Wind River subbasin, WA. Our tagging focused on parr in headwaters areas of the subbasin and our instream readers provided information on movement of these parr and other life-stages of tagged steelhead. The Wind River subbasin in southwest Washington State provides habitat for a population of wild Lower Columbia River steelhead and is an excellent watershed for long-term studies of population dynamics and responses to restoration of this wild population. No hatchery steelhead have been planted in the Wind River subbasin since 1994, and hatchery adults are estimated to be less than one percent of adults in any year (pers comm. Thomas Buehrens, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife). Numerous restoration actions have been implemented in the subbasin, including the removal of Hemlock Dam on Trout Creek in 2009. Data from our study, and companion work by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW), will contribute to Bonneville Power Administration’s (BPA) Research Monitoring and Evaluation (RM&E) Program Strategy of Fish Population Status Monitoring (www.cbfish.org/ProgramStrategy.mvc/ViewProgramStrategySummary/1), specifically the substrategies of: 1) Assessing the Status and Trends of Diversity of Natural Origin Fish Populations and to Uncertainties Research regarding differing life histories of a wild steelhead population, 2) Assessing the Status and Trend of Adult Natural Origin Fish Populations, and 3) Monitoring and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tributary Habitat Actions Relative to Environmental, Physical, or Biological Performance Objectives. During summer 2016, we sampled and PIT-tagged age-0 and age-1 steelhead parr in headwater areas of the Wind River subbasin to characterize population traits and investigate variable life-histories, including growth and parr movement downstream prior to smolting. Repeat sampling and smolt traps provide opportunities for recapture, and instream PTISs and Columbia River infrastructure provide opportunity for detection of PIT-tagged fish. Throughout the year, we maintained a series of instream PTISs to monitor movement of tagged steelhead parr, smolts, and adults. During 2016, we repaired or replaced much of our instream PTIS infrastructure that had been damaged or destroyed during a large flood event in December 2015. This included moving our upper Wind River detection site (WRU) about a kilometer downstream to a location we hope to be less susceptible to damage in high flows and that will allow grid power connection for more reliable winter operations. Detections at the instream PTISs showed trends of parr emigration during summer and fall, in addition to the expected movement of parr and smolts in spring. These data are increasing our understanding of varied life histories of juvenile steelhead; paired with other steelhead population work in the subbasin we hope to begin to understand some of the factors which may influence parr movements. Long-term monitoring of PIT-tagged fish over multiple years is providing information on contribution of various life-history strategies to smolt production and adult returns, as well as helping to identify factors influencing parr movement. Movements of PIT-tagged adult steelhead were also tracked with our instream PTISs. These data have provided information on timing of adult movements to various parts of the watershed, which is allowing us to assess adult returns to tributary watersheds within the Wind River subbasin. Determination of adult use of tributary watersheds is providing data to contribute to evaluation of the efficacy of the removal of Hemlock Dam on Trout Creek. Hemlock Dam, located at rkm 2.0 of Trout Creek was removed in summer 2009 and had contributed to hydrologic impairment of Trout Creek Evaluating restoration efforts is of interest to many managers and agencies so that funding and time are allocated for best results. The evaluation of various life-histories of Lower Columbia River steelhead within the Wind River subbasin will provide information to better track populations, and to direct habitat restoration and water allocation planning. Increasingly detailed Viable Salmonid Population information, such as that provided by PIT-tagging and instream PTISs networks like those we are building and operating in the Wind River subbasin, will provide data to inform policy and management, as life-history strategies and production bottlenecks are identified and understood.

Report↗

USGS2006

Methods Used to Assess the Susceptibility to Contamination of Transient, Non-Community Public Ground-Water Supplies in Indiana

The Safe Water Drinking Act of 1974 as amended in 1996 gave each State the responsibility of developing a Source-Water Assessment Plan (SWAP) that is designed to protect public-water supplies from contamination. Each SWAP must include three elements: (1) a delineation of the source-water protection area, (2) an inventory of potential sources of contaminants within the area, and (3) a determination of the susceptibility of the public-water supply to contamination from the inventoried sources. The Indiana Department of Environmental Management (IDEM) was responsible for preparing a SWAP for all public-water supplies in Indiana, including about 2,400 small public ground-water supplies that are designated transient, non-community (TNC) supplies. In cooperation with IDEM, the U.S. Geological Survey compiled information on conditions near the TNC supplies and helped IDEM complete source-water assessments for each TNC supply. The delineation of a source-water protection area (called the assessment area) for each TNC ground-water supply was defined by IDEM as a circular area enclosed by a 300-foot radius centered at the TNC supply well. Contaminants of concern (COCs) were defined by IDEM as any of the 90 contaminants for which the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has established primary drinking-water standards. Two of these, nitrate as nitrogen and total coliform bacteria, are Indiana State-regulated contaminants for TNC water supplies. IDEM representatives identified potential point and nonpoint sources of COCs within the assessment area, and computer database retrievals were used to identify potential point sources of COCs in the area outside the assessment area. Two types of methods-subjective and subjective hybrid-were used in the SWAP to determine susceptibility to contamination. Subjective methods involve decisions based upon professional judgment, prior experience, and (or) the application of a fundamental understanding of processes without the collection and analysis of data for a specific condition. Subjective hybrid methods combine subjective methods with quantitative hydrologic analyses. The subjective methods included an inventory of potential sources and associated contaminants, and a qualitative description of the inherent susceptibility of the area around the TNC supply. The description relies on a classification of the hydrogeologic and geomorphic characteristics of the general area around the TNC supply in terms of its surficial geology, regional aquifer system, the occurrence of fine- and coarse-grained geologic materials above the screen of the TNC well, and the potential for infiltration of contaminants. The subjective hybrid method combined the results of a logistic regression analysis with a subjective analysis of susceptibility and a subjective set of definitions that classify the thickness of fine-grained geologic materials above the screen of a TNC well in terms of impedance to vertical flow. The logistic regression determined the probability of elevated concentrations of nitrate as nitrogen (greater than or equal to 3 milligrams per liter) in ground water associated with specific thicknesses of fine-grained geologic materials above the screen of a TNC well. In this report, fine-grained geologic materials are referred to as a geologic barrier that generally impedes vertical flow through an aquifer. A geologic barrier was defined to be thin for fine-grained materials between 0 and 45 feet thick, moderate for materials between 45 and 75 feet thick, and thick if the fine-grained materials were greater than 75 feet thick. A flow chart was used to determine the susceptibility rating for each TNC supply. The flow chart indicated a susceptibility rating using (1) concentrations of nitrate as nitrogen and total coliform bacteria reported from routine compliance monitoring of the TNC supply, (2) the presence or absence of potential sources of regulated contaminants (nitrate as nitrogen and coliform bac

Indiana↗

USGS2023

Ecological effects of pinyon-juniper removal in the Western United States—A synthesis of scientific research, January 2014–March 2021

Executive Summary Increasing density of pinyon ( Pinus spp. ) and juniper ( Juniperus spp. ) woodlands (hereinafter “pinyon-juniper”), as well as expansion of these woodlands into adjacent shrublands and grasslands, has altered ecosystem function and wildlife habitat across large areas of the interior western United States. Although there are many natural and human-caused drivers of woodland infilling and expansion, restoration of sagebrush ( Artemisia spp. ) habitat through removal of pinyon-juniper is considered an urgent management objective in many locations, particularly in support of sagebrush-dependent wildlife species of conservation concern. In December 2020, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) established the Pinyon-Juniper Management Categorical Exclusion (PJCX) to expedite the regulatory process for pinyon-juniper removal projects on public lands, largely intended to benefit mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) and greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) habitats. During final preparation of this report, the BLM discontinued use of the PJCX (as of November, 2022), but the pinyon-juniper tree removal techniques assessed in this report are commonly used and understanding their effects remains relevant to land use planning. To address areas of uncertainty relative to potential ecological effects of the PJCX, we conducted a review of the peer-reviewed science literature to better understand the likely responses of vegetation, environmental (for example, soils), and wildlife variables to specific tree removal techniques permitted by the PJCX. In brief, the PJCX permitted removal of trees by either manual cutting, mechanical cutting, or mastication; allowed certain methods to redistribute or remove resulting tree biomass after treatment; and prohibited broadcast burning, roadbuilding, removal of old-growth, and seeding of non-native species. Specifically, we conducted our review to address the following questions: How will PJCX removal techniques affect plant communities, soils, and abiotic resources? How do these pinyon-juniper removal techniques affect wildlife communities, including both woodland- and sagebrush-dependent species? What are the potential ecological implications of different pinyon-juniper removal treatment types and implementation strategies (for example, treatment sizes) over time? What are the most important gaps in our scientific understanding of how treatments might affect targeted ecosystems over space and time (for example, potential effects of climate change)? To answer these questions, we considered studies related to pinyon-juniper ecosystems, focusing on research that occurred over a large portion of the interior western United States that is the primary focus of the PJCX. We also focused on papers published from 2014 onward, to avoid excessive overlap with other recent reviews on pinyon-juniper management effects. Using strict criteria, including only considering research that tested responses for statistical significance, we identified 48 papers that primarily examined treatment effects on vegetation and other environmental variables (1,709 responses), and 11 papers that addressed effects on wildlife (132 responses). Responses to the PJCX-permitted treatments were summarized as either positive (that is, a significant increase), negative (that is, a significant decrease), or non-significant (that is, no significant difference). Responses were assigned to categories (for example, Native Annual Grass/Forb Abundance) and hierarchical treatment levels. We found that there were large proportions of non-significant responses among all categories combined, with roughly half or more of all responses non-significant (48 percent for wildlife, 60 percent for vegetation-environmental), comparable to other recent systematic reviews of pinyon-juniper treatment effects. However, we also found that when there were significant responses, some important trends potentially emerged. Important undesirable outcomes included far more positive than negative responses of exotic grass and forb abundance among nearly all treatment types. Cutting treatments were also more likely to decrease biocrust cover and microbial activity. Potentially beneficial outcomes included mostly positive responses among sagebrush obligate species, including more positive than negative responses for mule deer and sage-grouse. Some treatment types (for example, mastication) also resulted in more positive than negative responses for native grasses and forbs (although, non-significant responses were the majority). We also highlighted many limitations of this review, including how responses often come from few studies, and how some response-treatment category combinations lack adequate response data. Moreover, the existing research is often insufficient to address many key questions about treatment effects, largely owing to short time-scales and limited spatial extents of observations, which do not match the size of treatments being implemented by land managers, nor capture long-term, post-treatment ecological dynamics. We also identify a lack of research that addresses key interactions that could undermine restoration objectives, including potential effects of climate change and grazing on post-treatment environments. Thus, we emphasize the importance of integrating these factors into future pinyon-juniper treatment research, and we stress the need for use of monitoring programs and research studies that partake in data collection and analysis over long durations and broad spatial scales.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2024

Wind River Subbasin Restoration Annual Report of USGS Activities January 2021 through December 2022

We sampled juvenile wild Steelhead Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss in headwater streams of the Wind River, WA, to characterize population attributes and investigate life-history metrics, particularly migratory patterns, and early life-stage survival. We used passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagging and a series of instream PIT-tag interrogation systems (PTISs) to track juveniles and adults. The Wind River subbasin is considered a wild Steelhead refuge by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW). No hatchery Steelhead Trout have been released in the Wind River subbasin since 1997, and hatchery adults are estimated at less than one percent of spawners in most years. Over twenty years of Steelhead Trout status and trend monitoring and research in the subbasin is contributing to understanding of population response to numerous restoration actions in the subbasin, including removal of Hemlock Dam from Trout Creek in 2009, which had an outdated adult ladder and contributed to increased water temperatures reducing performance of juvenile Steelhead Trout. Data from our study, and companion work by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, are contributing to Bonneville Power Administrations (BPA) Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation (RM&E) Program Strategy of Fish Population Status Monitoring (https://www.cbfish.org/ProgramStrategy.mvc/Index). Specifically, this work addresses the sub-strategies of 1) Assessing the Status and Trends of Diversity of Natural Origin Fish Populations and Uncertainties Research regarding differing life histories of a wild Steelhead Trout population, 2) Assessing the Status and Trend of Adult Natural Origin Fish Populations, and 3) Monitoring and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tributary Habitat Actions Relative to Environmental, Physical, or Biological Performance Objectives. During summer and fall 2021 and 2022, we PIT-tagged 1,889 and 1,391 Steelhead parr (age-0 and age-1), respectively, in the Trout Creek and upper Wind River watersheds. Age-0 parr were at lower densities in 2022 than many years due to a poor return of adult Steelhead spawners in 2022. Steelhead Trout parr were recaptured and detected through repeat headwater sampling, smolt trap operations, and instream PTISs and Columbia River PIT-tag detection infrastructure. We maintained, and upgraded in 2022, a series of six instream PTISs to monitor movement of tagged Steelhead Trout parr, smolts, and adults, providing data to population assessments, and life-cycle research and modeling. We continue to improve our PTISs in the Wind River subbasin. The improvements in siting and addition of grid power to the upper Wind River PTIS (site code WRU, rkm 27.6) during 2016 and 2017, and the addition of the Mine Reach site (site code MIN, rkm 36.0) have much improved PIT-tagged fish monitoring in the upper Wind River watershed. The paired PTIS design in the upper Wind River watershed (sites WRU and MIN) matches that in the Trout Creek watershed (sites TRC, rkm 2.0; and TC4, rkm 11.5) and will allow comparisons of Steelhead Trout population metrics between the two watersheds as response to Hemlock Dam removal continues and future restoration efforts occur in Trout Creek. During summer 2022, we upgraded three PTISs with new transceivers and new or reconfigured antennas. We replaced the Biomark 1001 Multiplexing Transceivers with Biomark MTS IS1001 Master Controller and individual IS1001 Transceivers at WRU, TRC (Trout Creek, rkm 2.0), and TC4 (Trout Creek at 43 Road Bridge, rkm 11.5). These new transceivers and antennas will improve detection performance due to increased read range and decreased susceptibility to noise. We also installed an additional IS1001 Transceiver and 11-foot antenna at WRA in summer 2021 to increase cross-channel and water column coverage. Detection data from PIT-tagged adult Steelhead Trout at PTISs allow assessment of adult escapement to tributary watersheds within the Wind River subbasin. Adult Steelhead Trout detection efficiency estimates at our primary PTIS in Trout Creek have been greater than 99 percent during six of the past eight years and have exceeded 97% at our primary PTIS in the Wind River during seven of the past eight years. Adult escapement estimates to tributary watersheds are helping us evaluate the efficacy of the 2009 removal of Hemlock Dam from rkm 2.0 of Trout Creek. The dam had potential negative effects on Steelhead Trout populations in Trout Creek due to hydrologic impairment, increased temperatures, and adult passage issues. Hemlock Dam was laddered for adult passage, but not to modern standards, which likely resulted in avoidance by some adult Steelhead Trout. Detections at the instream PTISs have demonstrated trends of age-0 and age-1 parr emigration from natal areas during summer and fall, in addition to the expected movement of parr and smolts in spring. We have estimated that from 15 to 51% of parr tagged as age-0 fish in headwater areas make downstream migrations at age 1 for additional rearing. Downstream movement occurs primarily during spring but also in fall. We have estimated that up to 27% of Steelhead Trout parr, tagged as age-1 fish, make downstream migrations during fall. Fall migration of age-1 parr has been more common in the upper Wind River watershed than the Trout Creek watershed. These findings raise questions about where parr most successfully rear and whether migrations are density- or habitat-quality driven. Broader monitoring programs would give a more comprehensive understanding of juvenile Steelhead Trout production and rearing and contributions to adult recruitment from varied rearing strategies. Repeat sampling at consistent locations in the subbasin has enabled assessment of juvenile Steelhead Trout growth patterns. Growth rates (relative change in weight) of age-0 PIT-tagged parr during summer were similar across the subbasin, though slightly lower in the Trout Creek watershed. The greatest summer growth rate was in the mainstem of the Wind River (rkm 37 and 41). Summer growth rates were lower for age-1 parr in the Trout Creek watershed than the upper Wind River watershed. Yearly relative growth was similar across the subbasin for both age-0 and age-1 tagged parr. Lower Layout Creek had the highest yearly growth rate of parr from age-0 to age-1. Mainstem Wind River (rkm 37) had the highest yearly growth rate of parr from age-1 to age-2. Non-native Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis are present in the subbasin, chiefly the Trout Creek watershed, and repeat sampling provides an index of their prevalence. Mean percent-of-catch that is Brook Trout, at four sample sites in Trout Creek, has declined from the period 1998 2003 to the period 2011 2022. Percent-of-catch and number of Brook Trout at the Trout Creek sites from 2011 through 2022 has generally declined, though both metrics have been somewhat variable. Evaluation and planning of habitat restoration efforts are critical to ensure efficient use of money and resources. Assessing Steelhead Trout life history variation in the Wind River subbasin will inform research and tracking of many populations and help inform habitat restoration and water allocation planning. Movement of Steelhead Trout parr from natal areas to other rearing areas raises questions regarding juvenile abundance, origin, and habitat use within watersheds. Improved PTISs and focused PIT-tagging of age-0 and age-1 Steelhead Trout parr allow investigation of such questions. Increasingly detailed viable salmonid population information, such as that provided by PIT-tagging and instream PTIS networks like those in the Wind River, can provide data to inform fisheries policy and management and understand life-history strategies and limiting factors. Such efforts also enable assessment of long-term effects of habitat restoration actions such as the removal of Hemlock Dam on Trout Creek, and the proposed Stage-0 restoration effort for upper Trout Creek, which would be a large-scale effort to reset sections of stream within their floodplain, restoring connectivity and interaction with surrounding landscape.

Report↗

USGS2012

Surface-water salinity in the Gunnison River Basin, Colorado, water years 1989 through 2007

Elevated levels of dissolved solids in water (salinity) can result in numerous and costly issues for agricultural, industrial, and municipal water users. The Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act of 1974 (Public Law 93-320) authorized planning and construction of salinity-control projects in the Colorado River Basin. One of the first projects was the Lower Gunnison Unit, a project to mitigate salinity in the Lower Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basins. In cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), the U.S. Geological Survey conducted a study to quantify changes in salinity in the Gunnison River Basin. Trends in salinity concentration and load during the period water years (WY) 1989 through 2004 (1989-2004) were determined for 15 selected streamflow-gaging stations in the Gunnison River Basin. Additionally, trends in salinity concentration and load during the period WY1989 through 2007 (1989-2007) were determined for 5 of the 15 sites for which sufficient data were available. Trend results also were used to identify regions in the Lower Gunnison River Basin (downstream from the Gunnison Tunnel) where the largest changes in salinity loads occur. Additional sources of salinity, including residential development (urbanization), changes in land cover, and natural sources, were estimated within the context of the trend results. The trend results and salinity loads estimated from trends testing also were compared to USBR and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) estimates of off-farm and on-farm salinity reduction from salinity-control projects in the basin. Finally, salinity from six additional sites in basins that are not affected by irrigated agriculture or urbanization was monitored from WY 2008 to 2010 to quantify what portion of salinity may be from nonagricultural or natural sources. In the Upper Gunnison area, which refers to Gunnison River Basin above the site located on the Gunnison River below the Gunnison Tunnel, estimated mean annual salinity load was 110,000 tons during WY 1989-2004. Analysis of both study periods (WY 1989-2004 and WY 1989-2007) showed an initial decrease in salinity load with a minimum in 1997. The net change over either study period was only significant during WY 1989-2007. Salinity load significantly decreased at the Gunnison River near Delta by 179,000 tons during WY 1989-2004. Just downstream, the Uncompahgre River enters the Gunnison River where there also was a highly significant decrease in salinity load of 55,500 tons. The site that is located at the mouth of the study area is the Gunnison River near Grand Junction where the decrease was the largest. Salinity loads decreased by 247,000 tons during WY 1989-2004 at this site though the decrease attenuated by 2007 and the net change was a decrease of 207,000 tons. The trend results presented in this study indicate that the effect of urbanization on salinity loads is difficult to discern from the effects of irrigated agriculture and that natural sources contribute a fraction of the total salinity load for the entire basin. Based on the calculated yields and geology, 23-63 percent of the estimated annual salinity load was from natural sources at the Gunnison River near Grand Junction during WY 1989-2007. The largest changes in salinity load occurred at the Gunnison River near Grand Junction as well as the two sites located in Delta: the Gunnison River at Delta and the Uncompahgre River at Delta. Those three sites, especially the two sites at Delta, were the most affected by irrigated agriculture, which was observed in the estimated mean annual loads. Irrigated acreage, especially acreage underlain by Mancos Shale, is the target of salinity-control projects intended to decrease salinity loads. The NRCS and the USBR have done the majority of salinity control work in the Lower Gunnison area of the Gunnison River Basin, and the focus has been in the Uncompahgre River Basin and in portions of the Lower Gunnison River Basin (downstream from the Gunnison Tunnel). According to the estimates from the USBR and NRCS, salinity-control projects may be responsible for a reduction of 117,300 tons of salinity as of 2004 and 142,000 tons as of 2007 at the Gunnison River near Grand Junction, Colo. (streamflow-gaging station 09152500). USBR and NRCS estimates account for all but 130,000 tons in 2004 and 65,000 tons in 2007 of salinity load reduction. The additional reduction could be a reduction in natural salt loading to the streams because of land-cover changes during the study period. It is possible also that the USBR and NRCS have underestimated changes in salinity loads as a result of the implementation of salinity-control projects.

Colorado↗

USGS2012

Predicting sea-level rise vulnerability of terrestrial habitat and wildlife of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

If current climate change trends continue, rising sea levels may inundate low-lying islands across the globe, placing island biodiversity at risk. Recent models predict a rise of approximately one meter (1 m) in global sea level by 2100, with larger increases possible in areas of the Pacific Ocean. Pacific Islands are unique ecosystems home to many endangered endemic plant and animal species. The Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI), which extend 1,930 kilometers (km) beyond the main Hawaiian Islands, are a World Heritage Site and part of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. These NWHI support the largest tropical seabird rookery in the world, providing breeding habitat for 21 species of seabirds, 4 endemic land bird species and essential foraging, breeding, or haul-out habitat for other resident and migratory wildlife. In recent years, concern has grown about the increasing vulnerability of the NWHI and their wildlife populations to changing climatic patterns, particularly the uncertainty associated with potential impacts from global sea-level rise (SLR) and storms. In response to the need by managers to adapt future resource protection strategies to climate change variability and dynamic island ecosystems, we have synthesized and down scaled analyses for this important region. This report describes a 2-year study of a remote northwestern Pacific atoll ecosystem and identifies wildlife and habitat vulnerable to rising sea levels and changing climate conditions. A lack of high-resolution topographic data for low-lying islands of the NWHI had previously precluded an extensive quantitative model of the potential impacts of SLR on wildlife habitat. The first chapter (chapter 1) describes the vegetation and topography of 20 islands of Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, the distribution and status of wildlife populations, and the predicted impacts for a range of SLR scenarios. Furthermore, this chapter explores the potential effects of SLR on wildlife breeding habitats for each island. The subsequent chapter (chapter 2) details a study of the Laysan Island ecosystem, describing a quantitative model that incorporates SLR, storm wave, and rising groundwater inundation. Wildlife, storm, and oceanographic data allowed for an assessment of the phenological and spatial vulnerability of Laysan Island's breeding bird species to SLR and storms. Using remote sensing and geospatial techniques, we estimated topography, classified vegetation, modeled SLR, and evaluated a range of climate change scenarios. On the basis of high-resolution airborne data collected during 2010-11 (root-mean-squared error = 0.05-0.18 m), we estimated the maximum elevation of 20 individual islands extending from Kure Atoll to French Frigate Shoals (range: 1.8-39.7 m) and computed the mean elevation (1.7 m, standard deviation 1.1 m) across all low-lying islands. We also analyzed general climate models to describe rainfall and temperature scenarios expected to influence adaptation of some plants and animals for this region. Outcomes for the NWHI predicted an increase in temperature of 1.8-2.6 degrees Celsius (°C) and an annual decrease in precipitation of 24.7-76.3 millimeters (mm) across the NWHI by 2100. Our models of passive SLR (excluding wave-driven effects, erosion, and accretion) showed that approximately 4 percent of the total land area in the NWHI will be lost with scenarios of +1.0 m of SLR and 26 percent will be lost with +2.0 m of SLR. Some atolls are especially vulnerable to SLR. For example, at Pearl and Hermes Atoll our analysis indicated substantial habitat losses with 43 percent of the land area inundated at +1.0 m SLR and 92 percent inundated at +2.0 m SLR. Across the NWHI, seven islands will be completely submerged with +2.0 m SLR. The limited global ranges of some tropical nesting birds make them particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts in the NWHI. Climate change scenarios and potential SLR impacts presented here emphasize the need for early climate change adaptation and mitigation planning, especially for species with limited breeding distributions and/or ranges restricted primarily to the low-lying NWHI: Cyperus pennatiformis var. bryanii , Black-footed Albatross ( Phoebastria nigripes ), Laysan Albatross ( P. immutabilis ), Bonin Petrel ( Pterodroma hypoleuca ), Gray-backed Tern ( Onychoprion lunatus ), Laysan Teal ( Anas laysanensis ), Laysan Finch ( Telespiza cantans ), and Hawaiian monk seal ( Monachus schauinslandi ). Furthermore, SLR scenarios that include the effects of wave dynamics and groundwater rise may indicate amplified vulnerability to climate change driven habitat loss on low-lying islands. In chapter 2, we incorporated the combined effects of SLR, dynamic wave-driven inundation, and rising groundwater in a quantitative study specifically for the Laysan Island ecosystem. This is the first hydrodynamic model to simulate the combined impacts of SLR and wave-driven inundation in the NWHI. We developed a high-resolution digital elevation model (mean vertical accuracy of 0.32 m) for the island. Then using recent satellite imagery, geospatial models, and historical oceanographic, storm, and biological data we estimated potential inundation extent, habitat loss, and wildlife population impacts for a range of potential SLR scenarios (0.00, +0.50, +1.00, +1.50, and +2.00 m) that may occur over the next century. Additionally, we estimated the carrying capacity of Laysan Island for five species based on the available population monitoring data and described how potential losses in nesting habitat could influence population dynamics for Black-footed Albatross, Laysan Albatross, Red-footed Booby (Sula sula), Laysan Teal, and Laysan Finch. For some other seabird populations (Masked Booby, S. dactylatra ; Brown Booby, S. leucogaster ; Great Frigatebird, Fregata minor ; and Sooty Tern, Onychoprion fuscata ), we used recent colony distribution data, land cover maps, and nesting behavior to estimate potential losses of nesting habitat from SLR and wave-driven inundation. We observed far greater potential impacts of SLR to wildlife with the dynamic wave-driven modeling approach than with the passive modeling approach. Depending on SLR scenario and coastal orientation, during storms under a +2.00 m SLR scenario, the wave-driven inundation model predicted three times more inundation than the passive model (17.2 percent of total terrestrial area versus 4.6 percent, respectively). Large-wave events generally added 1 m of water height to passive inundation surfaces, therefore our dynamic models (during storm events) forecasted comparable inundation extents earlier than passive models. Although wave-driven water levels were highest in the northwest quadrant of Laysan Island, the greatest extent of inundation occurred in the southeast where coastal dunes less than 3 m above mean sea level provide little protection from wave-driven inundation. When wave-driven inundation was included in the SLR model for Laysan Island greater nesting habitat loss and potential impacts on wildlife population dynamics were predicted. The consequences of habitat loss due to SLR may be worse for species with colonies in the wave-exposed coastal zones (for example, Black-footed Albatross) and for populations already near the island's carrying capacity (for example, Laysan Teal). Species whose peak incubation and chick-rearing periods coincide with seasonally high wave heights also will be increasingly vulnerable, especially those species nesting on the ground in areas vulnerable to inundation, such as Gray-backed Tern and Black-footed Albatross. Other species that have space for population growth, or are not restricted to a narrow range of habitat types on Laysan (for instance, Sooty Terns), may be less sensitive to habitat loss from SLR over the next century. Our assessments of inundation risk, habitat loss, and wildlife species vulnerability synthesize current knowledge about individual islands and contribute to a broader understanding of the impacts of inundation from SLR and storm-induced waves. Yet, most NWHI and their bird populations lack monitoring data to evaluate adaptations to and impacts of climate change. Exceptions include some data sets from long-term monitoring of wildlife populations, tides, or weather at French Frigate Shoals, Laysan Island, and Midway Atoll. These data sets are potentially valuable baselines, which could be informative for adaptive learning (integrating management and science) to predict, adapt, and mitigate the effects of climate change on NWHI wildlife in the future. This study provides the first quantitative vulnerability assessment for all of the low-lying NWHI, and results identify biological communities, locales, and resident endangered species of Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument expected to be at risk from SLR. This report is also intended as a reference for managers and conservation planners, a tool to identify and potentially reduce uncertainty, and a starting place for developing climate change monitoring priorities and future scientific studies.

Hawai'i↗

USGS1985

Environmental systems and management activities on the Kennedy Space Center, Merritt Island, Florida: results of a modeling workshop

In the early 1960's, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) began purchasing 140,000 acres on Merritt Island, Florida, in order to develop a center for space exploration. Most of this land was acquired to provide a safety and security buffer around NASA facilities. NASA, as the managing agency for the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), is responsible for preventing or controlling environmental pollution from the Federal facilities and activities at the Space Center and is committed to use all practicable means to protect and enhance the quality of the surrounding environment. The Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge was established in 1963 when management authority for undeveloped lands at KSC was transferred to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. In addition to manage for 11 Federally-listed threatened and endangered species and other resident and migratory fish and wildlife populations, the Refuge has comanagement responsibility for 19,000 acres of mosquito control impoundments and 2,500 acres of citrus groves. The Canaveral National Seashore was developed in 1975 when management of a portion of the coastal lands was transferred from NASA to the National Park Service. This multiagency jurisdiction on Merritt Island has resulted in a complex management environment. The modeling workshop described in this report was conducted May 21-25, 1984, at the Kennedy Space Center to: (1) enhance communication among the agencies with management responsibilities on Merritt Island; (2) integrate available information concerning the development, management, and ecology of Merritt Island; and (3) identify key research and monitoring needs associated with the management and use of the island's resources. The workshop was structured around the formulation of a model that would simulate primary management and use activities on Merritt Island and their effects on upland, impoundment, and estuarine vegetation and associated wildlife. The simulation model is composed of four connected submodels. The Uplands submodel calculates changes in acres and structural components of vegetation communities resulting from succession, fire, facilities development, and shuttle launch depositions, as well as the quantity and quality of surface runoff and aquifer input to an impoundment and an estuary. The Impoundment submodel next determines water quality and quantity and changes in vegetation resulting from water level manipulation and prescribed burning. The Estuary submodel than determines water quality parameters and acres of seagrass beds. Finally, the Wildlife submodel calculates habitat suitability indices for key species of interest, based on vegetation conditions in the uplands and impoundments and on several hydrologic parameters. The model represents a hypothetical management unit with 2,500 acres of uplands, a 600-acre impoundment, and a 1,500-acre section of estuary. Two management scenarios were run to analyze model behavior. The scenarios differ in the frequency of shuttle launches and prescribed burning, the extent of facilities development, the amount of land disposed waste material applied, and the nature and timing of impoundment water level control. Early in a model development project, the process of building the model is usually of greater benefit than the model itself. The model building process stimulates interaction among agencies, assists in integrating existing information, and helps identify research needs. These benefits usually accrue even in the absence of real predictive power in the resulting model. Open communication occurs among the Federal, State, and local agencies involved with activities on Merritt Island and the agencies have a cooperative working relationship. The workshop provided an opportunity for all of these agencies to meet at one time and have focused discussions on the key environmental and multiagency resource management issues. The workshop framework helped to integrate information and assumptions from a number of disciplines and agencies. This integration occurred in the computer simulation model and among workshop participants as submodel linkages were developed and scenario results discussed. A number of research needs were identified at the workshop during the model building and testing exercises and associated discussions. These needs were based on the informed judgement of researchers and managers familiar with Merritt Island or similar areas, rather than on a comprehensive literature review of sensitivity analysis of the preliminary model developed at the workshop. Some of the needs can be addressed by interpreting the results of completed studies from similar geographic areas as they relate to Merritt Island, while other will require additional research studies on Merritt Island. Major research needs associated with the Upland submodel include behavior of the near-surface aquifer, factors limiting slash pine regeneration, frequency and effects of natural fire on various cover types, cumulative effects of shuttle launches, and fate in upland soils of nitrogen and phosphorous from land applied waste material. Key Impoundment submodel needs include documentation of vegetation changes in response to altered water depth, salinity, and nutrient concentrations and better specification of the functional characteristics of impoundments as chemical filters. Important information gaps identified in the Estuary submodel include a more complete analysis of factors contributing to phytoplankton abundance, evaluation of sources of turbidity other than phytoplankton, and identification and quantification of factors limiting seagrass distribution. Primary research needs associated with the Wildlife submodel include a survey of breeding habitat, production data, and harvest data for mottled ducks; data on the emigration and immigration of juvenile mullet (and other transient fish) in the impoundment; the contribution of various seagrasses to habitat requirements of sea trout; and the effects of dissolved oxygen on survival of juvenile sea trout. Ideally, the modeling workshop process is iterative in nature. Periods between workshops are used for research, data collection, and model refinement. Each workshop integrates information collected since the last workshop and produces a more credible model that is more useful in evaluating management alternatives. Participants felt that continued application of this process would help provide ongoing integration and communication among agencies and would allow each agency's planning and management activities to be viewed within the context of an overall assessment.

Report↗

USGS2008

Hydrologic and water-quality characterization and modeling of the Onondaga Lake Basin, Onondaga County, New York

Onondaga Lake in Onondaga County, New York, has been identified as one of the Nation’s most contaminated lakes as a result of industrial and sanitary-sewer discharges and stormwater nonpoint sources, and has received priority cleanup status under the national Water Resources Development Act of 1990. A basin-scale precipitation-runoff model of the Onondaga Lake basin was identified as a desirable water-resources management tool to better understand the processes responsible for the generation of loads of sediment and nutrients that are transported to Onondaga Lake. During 2003–07, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed a model based on the computer program, Hydrological Simulation Program–FORTRAN (HSPF), which simulated overland flow to, and streamflow in, the major tributaries of Onondaga Lake, and loads of sediment, phosphorus, and nitrogen transported to the lake. The simulation period extends from October 1997 through September 2003. The Onondaga Lake basin was divided into 107 subbasins and within these subbasins, the land area was apportioned among 19 pervious and impervious land types on the basis of land use and land cover, hydrologic soil group (HSG), and aspect. Precipitation data were available from three sources as input to the model. The model simulated streamflow, water temperature, concentrations of dissolved oxygen, and concentrations and loads of sediment, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, nitrate, ammonia, and organic nitrogen in the four major tributaries to Onondaga Lake–Onondaga Creek, Harbor Brook, Ley Creek, and Ninemile Creek. Simulated flows were calibrated to data from nine USGS streamflow-monitoring sites; simulated nutrient concentrations and loads were calibrated to data collected at six of the nine streamflow-monitoring sites. Water-quality samples were collected, processed, and analyzed by personnel from the Onondaga County Department of Water Environment Protection. Several time series of flow, and sediment and nutrient loads were generated for known sources of these constituents, including the Tully Valley mudboils (flow and sediment), Otisco Lake (flow and nutrients), the Marcellus wastewater-treatment plant (flow and nutrients), and springs from carbonate bedrock (flow). Runoff from the impervious sewered areas of the City of Syracuse was adjusted for the quantity that was treatable at the county wastewater-treatment plant; the excess flows were routed to nearby streams through combined-sanitary-and-storm-sewer overflows. The mitigative effects that the Onondaga Reservoir and Otisco Lake were presumed to have on loads of sediment and particulate constituents were simulated by adjustment of parameter values that controlled sediment settling rates, deposition, and scour in the reservoir and lake. Graphical representations of observed and simulated data, and relevant statistics, were compared to assess model performance. Simulated daily and monthly streamflows were rated “very good” (within 10 percent of observed flows) at all calibration sites, except Onondaga Creek at Cardiff, which was rated “fair” (10–15 percent difference). Simulations of monthly average water temperatures were rated “very good” (within 7 percent of observed temperatures) at all sites. No observed data were available by which to directly assess the model’s simulation of suspended sediment loads. Available measured total suspended solids data provided an indirect means of comparison but, not surprisingly, yielded only “fair” to “poor” ratings (greater than 30 percent difference) for simulated monthly sediment loads at half the water-quality calibration sites. Simulations of monthly orthophosphate loads ranged from “very good” (within 15 percent of measured loads) at three sites to “poor” (greater than 35 percent difference) at one site; simulations of ammonia nitrogen loads ranged from “very good” at one site to “fair” (25–35 percent difference) at two sites. Simulations of monthly total phosphorus, nitrate, and organic nitrogen loads were generally rated “very good” at all calibration sites. Sources of uncertainty in model results were identified, including (1) errors in precipitation data, (2) limitations in model structure, (3) nonuniqueness of values for highly sensitive parameters, (4) errors or bias in data used to calibrate the different components of the model, (5) misclassification of land-use and land-cover data, (6) changes in land use during the simulation period, (7) unidentified sources or sinks of chemical loads and water-quality processes that varied over time, and (8) differences in scale between large calibrated subbasins and small subbasins to which calibrated parameter values were transferred. Uncertainty in simulations of water-quality constituents was compounded by uncertainty in the processes on which the water-quality simulations were based. Therefore, sediment simulations were affected by uncertainty in the simulation of hydrology, and nutrient simulations were affected by uncertainty in both the hydrologic and sediment processes, as well as, in simulations of water temperature and dissolved oxygen concentrations. The calibrated model can be used to simulate scenarios that represent planned or hypothetical development and implementation of best-management practices in the Onondaga Lake basin and to assess the effects that these changes and practices are likely to have on rural and urban nonpoint sources of pollution to Onondaga Lake. Model results also can be used as input to a hydrodynamic model of Onondaga Lake that is being developed by Onondaga County and to prioritize areas of the basin where mitigative measures to decrease sediment and nutrient loads could provide the greatest benefits to Onondaga Lake.

New York↗