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USGS2006

Seismic evidence for rock damage and healing on the San Andreas fault associated with the 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquake

We deployed a dense linear array of 45 seismometers across and along the San Andreas fault near Parkfield a week after the M 6.0 Parkfield earthquake on 28 September 2004 to record fault-zone seismic waves generated by aftershocks and explosions. Seismic stations and explosions were co-sited with our previous experiment conducted in 2002. The data from repeated shots detonated in the fall of 2002 and 3 months after the 2004 M 6.0 mainshock show ???1.0%-1.5% decreases in seismic-wave velocity within an ???200-m-wide zone along the fault strike and smaller changes (0.2%-0.5%) beyond this zone, most likely due to the coseismic damage of rocks during dynamic rupture in the 2004 M 6.0 earthquake. The width of the damage zone characterized by larger velocity changes is consistent with the low-velocity waveguide model on the San Andreas fault, near Parkfield, that we derived from fault-zone trapped waves (Li et al., 2004). The damage zone is not symmetric but extends farther on the southwest side of the main fault trace. Waveform cross-correlations for repeated aftershocks in 21 clusters, with a total of ???130 events, located at different depths and distances from the array site show ???0.7%-1.1% increases in S-wave velocity within the fault zone in 3 months starting a week after the earthquake. The velocity recovery indicates that the damaged rock has been healing and regaining the strength through rigidity recovery with time, most likely . due to the closure of cracks opened during the mainshock. We estimate that the net decrease in seismic velocities within the fault zone was at least ???2.5%, caused by the 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquake. The healing rate was largest in the earlier stage of the postmainshock healing process. The magnitude of fault healing varies along the rupture zone, being slightly larger for the healing beneath Middle Mountain, correlating well with an area of large mapped slip. The fault healing is most prominent at depths above ???7 km.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2006

Surface slip associated with the 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake measured on alinement arrays

Although still continuing, surface slip from the 2004 Parkfield earth-quake as measured on alinement arrays appears to be approaching about 30-35 cm between Parkfield and Gold Hill. This includes slip along the main trace and the Southwest Fracture Zone (SWFZ). Slip here was higher in 1966 at about 40 cm. The distribution of 2004 slip appears to have a shape similar to that of the 1966 event, but final slip is expected to be lower in 2004 by about 3-15 cm, even when continuing slip is accounted for. Proportionately, this difference is most notable at the south end at Highway 46, where the 1966 event slip was 13 cm compared to the 2004 slip of 4 cm. Continuous Global Positioning System and creepmeters suggest that significant surface coseismic slip apparently occurred mainly on the SWFZ and perhaps on Middle Mountain (the latter possibly caused by shaking) (Langbein et al., 2005). Creepmeters indicate only minor (<0.2 cm) surface coseismic slip occurred on the main trace between Parkfield and Gold Hill. We infer that 3-6 cm slip accumulated across our arrays in the first 24 hr. At Highway 46, slip appears complete, whereas the remaining sites are expected to take 2-6 years to reach their background creep rates. Following the 1966 event, afterslip at one site persisted as much as 5-10 years. The much longer recurrence intervals between the past two Parkfield earthquakes and the decreasing slip per event may suggest that larger slip deficits are now growing along the Parkfield segment.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2006

Seismomagnetic effects from the long-awaited 28 September 2004 M 6.0 parkfield earthquake

Precise measurements of local magnetic fields have been obtained with a differentially connected array of seven synchronized proton magnetometers located along 60 km of the locked-to-creeping transition region of the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California, since 1976. The M 6.0 Parkfield earthquake on 28 September 2004, occurred within this array and generated coseismic magnetic field changes of between 0.2 and 0.5 nT at five sites in the network. No preseismic magnetic field changes exceeding background noise levels are apparent in the magnetic data during the month, week, and days before the earthquake (or expected in light of the absence of measurable precursive deformation, seismicity, or pore pressure changes). Observations of electric and magnetic fields from 0.01 to 20 Hz are also made at one site near the end of the earthquake rupture and corrected for common-mode signals from the ionosphere/magnetosphere using a second site some 115 km to the northwest along the fault. These magnetic data show no indications of unusual noise before the earthquake in the ULF band (0.01-20 Hz) as suggested may have preceded the 1989 ML 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake. Nor do we see electric field changes similar to those suggested to occur before earthquakes of this magnitude from data in Greece. Uniform and variable slip piezomagnetic models of the earthquake, derived from strain, displacement, and seismic data, generate magnetic field perturbations that are consistent with those observed by the magnetometer array. A higher rate of longer-term magnetic field change, consistent with increased loading in the region, is apparent since 1993. This accompanied an increased rate of secular shear strain observed on a two-color EDM network and a small network of borehole tensor strainmeters and increased seismicity dominated by three M 4.5-5 earthquakes roughly a year apart in 1992, 1993, and 1994. Models incorporating all of these data indicate increased slip at depth in the region, and this may have played a role in the final occurrence of the 28 September 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquake. The absence of electric and magnetic field precursors for this, and other earthquakes with M 5-7.3 elsewhere in the San Andreas fault system, indicates useful prediction of damaging earthquakes seems unlikely using these electromagnetic data.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2006

Rupture propagation of the 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake from observations at the UPSAR

Using a short-baseline seismic array (U.S. Geological Survey Parkfield Dense Seismograph Array [UPSAR]) about 12 km west of the rupture initiation of the 28 September 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake, we have observed the movement of the rupture front of this earthquake on the San Andreas fault. The sources of high-frequency arrivals at UPSAR, which we use to identify the rupture front, are mapped onto the San Andreas fault using their apparent velocity and back azimuth. Measurements of apparent velocity and back azimuth are calibrated using aftershocks, which have a compact source and known location. Aftershock back azimuths show considerable lateral refraction, consistent with a high-velocity ridge on the southwest side of the fault. We infer that the initial mainshock rupture velocity was approximately the Rayleigh speed (with respect to slower side of the fault), and the rupture then slowed to about 0.66?? near the town of Parkfield after 2 sec. The last well-correlated pulse, 4 sec after S, is the largest at UPSAR, and its source is near the region of large accelerations recorded by strong-motion accelerographs and close to northern extent of continuous surface fractures on the southwest fracture zone. Coincidence of sources with preshock and aftershock distributions suggests fault material properties control rupture behavior. High-frequency sources approximately correlate with the edges of asperities identified as regions of high slip derived from inversion of strong-motion waveforms.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2006

Some Key Features of the Strong-Motion Data from the M 6.0 Parkfield, California, Earthquake of 28 September 2004

The 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake was recorded by an extensive set of strong-motion instruments well positioned to record details of the motion in the near-fault region, where there has previously been very little recorded data. The strong-motion measurements obtained are highly varied, with significant variations occurring over only a few kilometers. The peak accelerations in the near fault region range from 0.13g to over 1.8g (one of the highest acceleration recorded to date, exceeding the capacity of the recording instrument The largest accelerations occurred near the northwest end of the inferred rupture zone. These motions are consistent with directivity for a fault rupturing from the hypocenter near Gold Hill toward the northwest. However, accelerations up to 0.8g were also observed in the opposite direction, at the south end of the Cholame Valley near Highway 41, consistent with bilateral rupture, with rupture southeast of the hypocenter. Several stations near and over the rupturing fault recorded relatively weak motions, consistent with seemingly paradoxical observations of low shaking damage near strike-slip faults. This event had more ground-motion observations within 10 km of the fault than many other earthquakes combined. At moderate distances peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA) values dropped off more rapidly with distance than standard relationships. At close-in distance the wide variation of PGA suggests a distance-dependent sigma may be important to consider. The near-fault ground-motion variation is greater than that assumed in ShakeMap interpolations, based on the existing set of observed data. Higher density of stations near faults may be the only means in the near future to reduce uncertainty in the interpolations. Outside of the near-fault zone the variance is closer to that assumed. This set of data provides the first case where near-fault radiation has been observed at an adequate number of stations around the fault to allow detailed study of the fault-normal and fault-parallel motion and the near-field S-wave radiation. The fault-normal motions are significant, but they are not large at the central part of the fault, away from the ends. The fault-normal and fault-parallel motions drop off quite rapidly with distance from the fault. Analysis of directivity indicates increased values of peak velocity in the rupture direction. No such dependence is observed in the peak acceleration, except for stations close to the strike of the fault near and beyond the ends of the faulting.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2006

Coseismic and postseismic slip of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake from space-geodetic data

We invert interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data jointly with campaign and continuous global positioning system (GPS) data for slip in the coseismic and postseismic periods of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. The InSAR dataset consists of eight interferograms from data collected by the Envisat and Radarsat satellites spanning the time of the earthquake and variable amounts of the postseismic period. The two datasets complement each other, with the InSAR providing dense sampling of motion in the range direction of the satellite and the GPS providing more sparse, but three-dimensional measurements of ground motion. The model assumes exponential decay of the postseismic slip with a decay time constant of 0.087 years, determined from time series modeling of continuous GPS and creepmeter data. We find a geodetic moment magnitude of M 6.2 for a 1-day coseismic model and Mw 6.1 for the entire postseismic period. The coseismic rupture occurred mainly in two slip asperities; one near the hypocenter and the other 15-20 km north. Postseismic slip occurred on the shallow portions of the fault and near the rupture areas of two M 5.0 aftershocks. A comparison of the geodetic slip models with seismic moment estimates suggests that the coseismic moment release of the Parkfield earthquake is as little as 25% of the total. This underlines the importance of aseismic slip in the slip budget for the Parkfield segment.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2006

Slip on the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California, over two earthquake cycles, and the implications for seismic hazard

Parkfield, California, which experienced M 6.0 earthquakes in 1934, 1966, and 2004, is one of the few locales for which geodetic observations span multiple earthquake cycles. We undertake a comprehensive study of deformation over the most recent earthquake cycle and explore the results in the context of geodetic data collected prior to the 1966 event. Through joint inversion of the variety of Parkfield geodetic measurements (trilateration, two-color laser, and Global Positioning System), including previously unpublished two-color data, we estimate the spatial distribution of slip and slip rate along the San Andreas using a fault geometry based on precisely relocated seismicity. Although the three most recent Parkfield earthquakes appear complementary in their along-strike distributions of slip, they do not produce uniform strain release along strike over multiple seismic cycles. Since the 1934 earthquake, more than 1 m of slip deficit has accumulated on portions of the fault that slipped in the 1966 and 2004 earthquakes, and an average of 2 m of slip deficit exists on the 33 km of the fault southeast of Gold Hill to be released in a future, perhaps larger, earthquake. It appears that the fault is capable of partially releasing stored strain in moderate earthquakes, maintaining a disequilibrium through multiple earthquake cycles. This complicates the application of simple earthquake recurrence models that assume only the strain accumulated since the most recent event is relevant to the size or timing of an upcoming earthquake. Our findings further emphasize that accumulated slip deficit is not sufficient for earthquake nucleation.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2006

Continuous borehole strain and pore pressure in the near field of the 28 September 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake: Implications for nucleation, fault response, earthquake prediction and tremor

Near-field observations of high-precision borehole strain and pore pressure, show no indication of coherent accelerating strain or pore pressure during the weeks to seconds before the 28 September 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquake. Minor changes in strain rate did occur at a few sites during the last 24 hr before the earthquake but these changes are neither significant nor have the form expected for strain during slip coalescence initiating fault failure. Seconds before the event, strain is stable at the 10 −11 level. Final prerupture nucleation slip in the hypocentral region is constrained to have a moment less than 2 × 10 12 N m ( M 2.2) and a source size less than 30 m. Ground displacement data indicate similar constraints. Localized rupture nucleation and runaway precludes useful prediction of damaging earthquakes. Coseismic dynamic strains of about 10 microstrain peak-to-peak were superimposed on volumetric strain offsets of about 0.5 microstrain to the northwest of the epicenter and about 0.2 microstrain to the southeast of the epicenter, consistent with right lateral slip. Observed strain and Global Positioning System ( gps ) offsets can be simply fit with 20 cm of slip between 4 and 10 km on a 20-km segment of the fault north of Gold Hill ( M 0 = 7 × 10 17 N m). Variable slip inversion models using gps data and seismic data indicate similar moments. Observed postseismic strain is 60% to 300% of the coseismic strain, indicating incomplete release of accumulated strain. No measurable change in fault zone compliance preceding or following the earthquake is indicated by stable earth tidal response. No indications of strain change accompany nonvolcanic tremor events reported prior to and following the earthquake.

California↗
USGS2006

Coseismic and initial postseismic deformation from the 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake, observed by global positioning system, electronic distance meter, creepmeters, and borehole strainmeters

Global Positioning System (GPS), electronic distance meter, creepmeter, and strainmeter measurements spanning the M 6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake are examined. Using these data from 100 sec through 9 months following the main-shock, the Omori's law, with rate inversely related to time, l/t p and p ranging between 0.7 and 1.3, characterizes the time-dependent deformation during the post-seismic period; these results are consistent with creep models for elastic solids. With an accurate function of postseismic response, the coseismic displacements can be estimated from the high-rate, 1-min sampling GPS; and the coseismic displacements are approximately 75% of those estimated from the daily solutions. Consequently, fault-slip models using daily solutions overestimate coseismic slip. In addition, at 2 months and at 8 months following the mainshock, postseismic displacements are modeled as slip on the San Andreas fault with a lower bound on the moment exceeding that of the coseismic moment.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2006

San Andreas fault geometry in the Parkfield, California, region

In map view, aftershocks of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake lie along a line that forms a straighter connection between San Andreas fault segments north and south of the Parkfield reach than does the mapped trace of the fault itself. A straightedge laid on a geologic map of Central California reveals a ???50-km-long asymmetric northeastward warp in the Parkfield reach of the fault. The warp tapers gradually as it joins the straight, creeping segment of the San Andreas to the north-west, but bends abruptly across Cholame Valley at its southeast end to join the straight, locked segment that last ruptured in 1857. We speculate that the San Andreas fault surface near Parkfield has been deflected in its upper ???6 km by nonelastic behavior of upper crustal rock units. These units and the fault surface itself are warped during periods between large 1857-type earthquakes by the presence of the 1857-locked segment to the south, which buttresses intermittent coseismic and continuous aseismic slip on the Parkfield reach. Because of nonelastic behavior, the warping is not completely undone when an 1857-type event occurs, and the upper portion of the three-dimensional fault surface is slowly ratcheted into an increasingly prominent bulge. Ultimately, the fault surface probably becomes too deformed for strike-slip motion, and a new, more vertical connection to the Earth's surface takes over, perhaps along the Southwest Fracture Zone. When this happens a wedge of material currently west of the main trace will be stranded on the east side of the new main trace.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2006

Three-dimensional compressional wavespeed model, earthquake relocations, and focal mechanisms for the Parkfield, California, region

We present a new three-dimensional (3D) compressional vvavespeed (V p) model for the Parkfield region, taking advantage of the recent seismicity associated with the 2003 San Simeon and 2004 Parkfield earthquake sequences to provide increased model resolution compared to the work of Eberhart-Phillips and Michael (1993) (EPM93). Taking the EPM93 3D model as our starting model, we invert the arrival-time data from about 2100 earthquakes and 250 shots recorded on both permanent network and temporary stations in a region 130 km northeast-southwest by 120 km northwest-southeast. We include catalog picks and cross-correlation and catalog differential times in the inversion, using the double-difference tomography method of Zhang and Thurber (2003). The principal Vp features reported by EPM93 and Michelini and McEvilly (1991) are recovered, but with locally improved resolution along the San Andreas Fault (SAF) and near the active-source profiles. We image the previously identified strong wavespeed contrast (faster on the southwest side) across most of the length of the SAF, and we also improve the image of a high Vp body on the northeast side of the fault reported by EPM93. This narrow body is at about 5- to 12-km depth and extends approximately from the locked section of the SAP to the town of Parkfield. The footwall of the thrust fault responsible for the 1983 Coalinga earthquake is imaged as a northeast-dipping high wavespeed body. In between, relatively low wavespeeds (<5 km/sec) extend to as much as 10-km depth. We use this model to derive absolute locations for about 16,000 earthquakes from 1966 to 2005 and high-precision double-difference locations for 9,000 earthquakes from 1984 to 2005, and also to determine focal mechanisms for 446 earthquakes. These earthquake locations and mechanisms show that the seismogenic fault is a simple planar structure. The aftershock sequence of the 2004 mainshock concentrates into the same structures defined by the pre-2004 seismicity, confirming earlier observations (Waldhauser et al., 2004) that the seismicity pattern at Parkfield is long lived and persists through multiple cycles of mainshocks.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2006

Recordings of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake on the General Earthquake Observation System array: Implications for earthquake precursors, fault rupture, and coseismic strain changes

The 2004 Parkfield earthquake generated a unique set of near-field, high-resolution colocated measurements of acceleration, volumetric strain, and velocity at 11 stations in the General Earthquake Observation System ( geos ) array. The recordings indicate no precursory strain or displacement was discernable at sensitivities of 10 −11 strain and 5 × 10 −8 m 25 sec prior to the earthquake at distances of 0.5 to 12 km of fault rupture. Coherent fault-parallel and fault-normal displacement pulses, observed along the fault north of the epicenter, are consistent with model predictions for “fling,” directivity, and displacement for right-lateral, strike-slip fault rupture. The fault-parallel and fault-normal pulses imply apparent rupture velocities of 2.86 ± 0.15 and 3.03 ± 0.24 km/sec, respectively. Unprecedented high-resolution volumetric-strain recordings on opposite sides of the fault show that dynamic strains radiated from ruptured segments of the fault are more than an order of magnitude larger than final coseismic strain offsets associated with fault slip, suggesting that dynamic radiated strain may have contributed to the triggering of failure on unruptured segments. High-resolution recordings show that coseismic strain offsets occur abruptly over time intervals of less than 10 sec near the time of arrival of the dominant radiated fault-parallel and fault-normal displacements. Subsequent measurements show that the strain offsets continue to increase by as much as 69% in 5 min and 300% in 24 hr over that measured during initial fault slip at depth. Estimates of local material parameters from simultaneous measurements of volumetric strain and acceleration confirm seismic calibration factors previously measurable in situ only at tidal periods.

California↗
USGS2006

Surface fault slip associated with the 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake

Surface fracturing occurred along the San Andreas fault, the subparallel Southwest Fracture Zone, and six secondary faults in association with the 28 September 2004 (M 6.0) Parkfield earthquake. Fractures formed discontinuous breaks along a 32-km-long stretch of the San Andreas fault. Sense of slip was right lateral; only locally was there a minor (1-11 mm) vertical component of slip. Right-lateral slip in the first few weeks after the event, early in its afterslip period, ranged from 1 to 44 mm. Our observations in the weeks following the earthquake indicated that the highest slip values are in the Middle Mountain area, northwest of the mainshock epicenter (creepmeter measurements indicate a similar distribution of slip). Surface slip along the San Andreas fault developed soon after the mainshock; field checks in the area near Parkfield and about 5 km to the southeast indicated that surface slip developed more than 1 hr but generally less than 1 day after the event. Slip along the Southwest Fracture Zone developed coseismically and extended about 8 km. Sense of slip was right lateral; locally there was a minor to moderate (1-29 mm) vertical component of slip. Right-lateral slip ranged from 1 to 41 mm. Surface slip along secondary faults was right lateral; the right-lateral component of slip ranged from 3 to 5 mm. Surface slip in the 1966 and 2004 events occurred along both the San Andreas fault and the Southwest Fracture Zone. In 1966 the length of ground breakage along the San Andreas fault extended 5 km longer than that mapped in 2004. In contrast, the length of ground breakage along the Southwest Fracture Zone was the same in both events, yet the surface fractures were more continuous in 2004. Surface slip on secondary faults in 2004 indicated previously unmapped structural connections between the San Andreas fault and the Southwest Fracture Zone, further revealing aspects of the structural setting and fault interactions in the Parkfield area.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2006

Introduction to the special issue on the 2004 Parkfield earthquake and the Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment

The 28 September 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquake, a long-anticipated event on the San Andreas fault, is the world's best recorded earthquake to date, with state-of-the-art data obtained from geologic, geodetic, seismic, magnetic, and electrical field networks. This has allowed the preearthquake and postearthquake states of the San Andreas fault in this region to be analyzed in detail. Analyses of these data provide views into the San Andreas fault that show a complex geologic history, fault geometry, rheology, and response of the nearby region to the earthquake-induced ground movement. Although aspects of San Andreas fault zone behavior in the Parkfield region can be modeled simply over geological time frames, the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment and the 2004 Parkfield earthquake indicate that predicting the fine details of future earthquakes is still a challenge. Instead of a deterministic approach, forecasting future damaging behavior, such as that caused by strong ground motions, will likely continue to require probabilistic methods. However, the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment and the 2004 Parkfield earthquake have provided ample data to understand most of what did occur in 2004, culminating in significant scientific advances.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2008

Paleoseismic targets, seismic hazard, and urban areas in the Central and Eastern United States

Published geologic information from the central and eastern United States identifies 83 faults, groups of sand blows, named seismic zones, and other geological features as known or suspected products of Quaternary tectonic faulting. About one fifth of the features are known to contain faulted Quaternary materials or seismically induced liquefaction phenomena, but the origin and associated seismic hazard of most of the other features remain uncertain. Most of the features are in or near large urban areas. The largest cluster of features is in the Boston-Washington urban corridor (2005 estimated population: 50 million). The proximity of most features to populous areas identifies paleoseismic targets with potential to impact urban-hazard estimates.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2007

Seismic velocity structure and seismotectonics of the eastern San Francisco Bay region, California

The Hayward Fault System is considered the most likely fault system in the San Francisco Bay Area, California, to produce a major earthquake in the next 30 years. To better understand this fault system, we use microseismicity to study its structure and kinematics. We present a new 3D seismic-velocity model for the eastern San Francisco Bay region, using microseismicity and controlled sources, which reveals a ∼10% velocity contrast across the Hayward fault in the upper 10 km, with higher velocity in the Franciscan Complex to the west relative to the Great Valley Sequence to the east. This contrast is imaged more sharply in our localized model than in previous regional-scale models. Thick Cenozoic sedimentary basins, such as the Livermore basin, which may experience particularly strong shaking during an earthquake, are imaged in the model.

California↗
USGS2006

Prediction of broadband ground-motion time histories: Hybrid low/high-frequency method with correlated random source parameters

We present a new method for calculating broadband time histories of ground motion based on a hybrid low-frequency/high-frequency approach with correlated source parameters. Using a finite-difference method we calculate low- frequency synthetics (< &sim;1 Hz) in a 3D velocity structure. We also compute broadband synthetics in a 1D velocity model using a frequency-wavenumber method. The low frequencies from the 3D calculation are combined with the high frequencies from the 1D calculation by using matched filtering at a crossover frequency of 1 Hz. The source description, common to both the 1D and 3D synthetics, is based on correlated random distributions for the slip amplitude, rupture velocity, and rise time on the fault. This source description allows for the specification of source parameters independent of any a priori inversion results. In our broadband modeling we include correlation between slip amplitude, rupture velocity, and rise time, as suggested by dynamic fault modeling. The method of using correlated random source parameters is flexible and can be easily modified to adjust to our changing understanding of earthquake ruptures. A realistic attenuation model is common to both the 3D and 1D calculations that form the low- and high-frequency components of the broadband synthetics. The value of Q is a function of the local shear-wave velocity. To produce more accurate high-frequency amplitudes and durations, the 1D synthetics are corrected with a randomized, frequency-dependent radiation pattern. The 1D synthetics are further corrected for local site and nonlinear soil effects by using a 1D nonlinear propagation code and generic velocity structure appropriate for the site&rsquo;s National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) site classification. The entire procedure is validated by comparison with the 1994 Northridge, California, strong ground motion data set. The bias and error found here for response spectral acceleration are similar to the best results that have been published by others for the Northridge rupture.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2006

Quantifying the uncertainty in site amplification modeling and its effects on site-specific seismic-hazard estimation in the upper Mississippi embayment and adjacent areas

The Mississippi embayment, located in the central United States, and its thick deposits of sediments (over 1 km in places) have a large effect on earthquake ground motions. Several previous studies have addressed how these thick sediments might modify probabilistic seismic-hazard maps. The high seismic hazard associated with the New Madrid seismic zone makes it particularly important to quantify the uncertainty in modeling site amplification to better represent earthquake hazard in seismic-hazard maps. The methodology of the Memphis urban seismic-hazard-mapping project (Cramer et al., 2004) is combined with the reference profile approach of Toro and Silva (2001) to better estimate seismic hazard in the Mississippi embayment. Improvements over previous approaches include using the 2002 national seismic-hazard model, fully probabilistic hazard calculations, calibration of site amplification with improved nonlinear soil-response estimates, and estimates of uncertainty. Comparisons are made with the results of several previous studies, and estimates of uncertainty inherent in site-amplification modeling for the upper Mississippi embayment are developed. I present new seismic-hazard maps for the upper Mississippi embayment with the effects of site geology incorporating these uncertainties.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗