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At least 271 records · Page 15Linked to original sources

USGS2006

The Hayward fault

This field guide consists of eleven stops at sites that illustrate the geological, geophysical, geographic, and engineering aspects of the Hayward fault in the East Bay. Section I (Stops 1–4) consists of stops that are part of the University of California at Berkeley (UC-Berkeley), including research facilities, retrofit of campus buildings, and geomorphic features along the fault. Section II (Stops 5 and 6) consists of stops along the Hayward fault north of the UC-Berkeley main campus, and Section III (stops 7–11) consists of stops related to the Hayward fault south of the UC-Berkeley main campus (Fig. 1 ). Stops are designed to illustrate geomorphic features of the fault, the effects of fault creep on structures sited on the fault, and retrofit design of structures to mitigate potential future deformation due to fault rupture.

California↗

USGS2004

Temporal and geographic variation in survival of juvenile black brant

First-year survival has important implications for the structure and growth of populations. We examined variation in seasonal survival of first-year Pacific Black Brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) marked late in summer in Alaska at two brood-rearing areas on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Tutakoke and Kokechik) and one area on the Arctic Coastal Plain to provide insight into the magnitude and timing of mortality during fall migration. First-year survival was lower in early fall (15 July-1 October), when birds fledged from brood-rearing areas and migrated to their primary fall staging area at Izembek Lagoon, Alaska, than during late fall and early winter (1 October-15 February), when birds made a long-distance transoceanic flight (>5000 km) to wintering areas in Baja California, Mexico. When compared to other years, monthly survival during early fall was 20-24% lower in 1992, the year of latest hatch dates and slowest growth of goslings. There was strong evidence to indicate that survival varied geographically within the early fall period. Monthly survival estimates during early fall were lowest for birds from Tutakoke, highest for birds from the Arctic Coastal Plain, and intermediate at Kokechik. Our findings revealed that most juvenile mortality occurred during the first 2 months following banding, and variation in juvenile survival during this period was likely influenced significantly by environmental parameters and habitat conditions on the breeding grounds. Monthly survival estimates during the subsequent 4 months were similar across geographic areas, and long-distance migration was likely the most important contributor to juvenile mortality during this period.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

GOES-derived fog and low cloud indices for coastal north and central California ecological analyses

Fog and low cloud cover (FLCC) changes the water, energy, and nutrient flux of coastal ecosystems. Easy-to-use FLCC data are needed to quantify the impacts of FLC on ecosystem dynamics during hot, dry Mediterranean climate summers. FLCC indices were generated from 26,000 hourly night and day FLCC maps derived from Geostationary Environmental Operational Satellite (GOES) data for June, July, August, and September, 1999- 2009 for coastal California, latitude 34.50°N, south of Monterey Bay, to latitude 41.95°N, north of Crescent City. Monthly FLCC average hours per day (h/d) range from < 2 to 18. Average FLCC over the ocean increases from north (9 h/d) to south (14 h/d) whereas FLCC over land is reversed. Over land, FLCC is highest where land juts into the prevailing NW winds and is lowest in the lee of major capes. FLCC advects furthest inland through low-lying NW ocean-facing valleys. At night hours of FLCC is higher more frequently on land than over the ocean. Interannual FLCC coefficient of variation shows long term geographic stability strongly associated with landform position. Contours delineating homogeneous zones of FLCC, derived from average decadal h/d FLCC, provide data to refine the commonly used term ‘fog belt.’ FLCC indices are available for download from the California Landscape Conservation Cooperative Climate Commons website. FLCC indices can be used to improve analyses of biogeographic and bioclimatic species distribution models, meteorological mechanisms driving FLCC patterns, ecohydrological investigations of evapotranspiration, solar energy feasibility studies, agricultural irrigation demand and viticultural ripening models.

Earth and Space Science↗

USGS2016

Estimating juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) abundance from beach seine data collected in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and San Francisco Bay, California

Resource managers rely on abundance or density metrics derived from beach seine surveys to make vital decisions that affect fish population dynamics and assemblage structure. However, abundance and density metrics may be biased by imperfect capture and lack of geographic closure during sampling. Currently, there is considerable uncertainty about the capture efficiency of juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) by beach seines. Heterogeneity in capture can occur through unrealistic assumptions of closure and from variation in the probability of capture caused by environmental conditions. We evaluated the assumptions of closure and the influence of environmental conditions on capture efficiency and abundance estimates of Chinook salmon from beach seining within the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and the San Francisco Bay. Beach seine capture efficiency was measured using a stratified random sampling design combined with open and closed replicate depletion sampling. A total of 56 samples were collected during the spring of 2014. To assess variability in capture probability and the absolute abundance of juvenile Chinook salmon, beach seine capture efficiency data were fitted to the paired depletion design using modified N-mixture models. These models allowed us to explicitly test the closure assumption and estimate environmental effects on the probability of capture. We determined that our updated method allowing for lack of closure between depletion samples drastically outperformed traditional data analysis that assumes closure among replicate samples. The best-fit model (lowest-valued Akaike Information Criterion model) included the probability of fish being available for capture (relaxed closure assumption), capture probability modeled as a function of water velocity and percent coverage of fine sediment, and abundance modeled as a function of sample area, temperature, and water velocity. Given that beach seining is a ubiquitous sampling technique for many species, our improved sampling design and analysis could provide significant improvements in density and abundance estimation.

California↗

USGS1995

Pesticides in the atmosphere; distribution, trends, and governing factors

A comprehensive review of existing literature on the occurrence and distribution of pesticides in the atmosphere of the United States and adjoining Canadian provinces showed that the atmosphere is an important part of the hydrologic cycle that acts to distribute and deposit pesticides in areas far removed from their application sites. A compilation of existing data shows that pesticides have been detected in the atmosphere throughout the nation. Most of the available information on pesticides in the atmosphere is from small-scale, short-term studies that seldom lasted more than one year. Only two national-scale, multi-year studies were done since the late 1960's that analyzed for a wide variety of pesticides in air that were in current use at the time. Another large-scale study was done during 1990-91, but was limited to the midwestern and northeastern United States and only analyzed for two classes of herbicides in wet deposition. Most of the pesticides analyzed for were detected in either air or rain, and represent about 25 percent of the total number of insecticides, herbicides, and fungicides in current use. The geographical distribution of studies, and the type of sampling and analysis were highly variable with most of the historical study efforts concentrated in the Great Lakes area and California. Air and rain were the main atmospheric matrices sampled, but pesticides were also detected in fog and snow. Reported pesticide concentrations in air and rain were frequently positively correlated to their regional agricultural use. Deviations from this relation could usually be explained by non-agricultural use of pesticides, sampling and analytical difficulties, and environmental persistence. High concentrations of locally used pesticides were found to occur seasonally, usually in conjunction with spring planting of row crops and warm temperatures, but high concentrations also occurred during winter months in those areas where dormant orchards were sprayed. The environmentally more persistent pesticides were detected in the atmosphere at low concen- trations throughout the year. Deposition of airborne pesticides can have significant effects on water quality, but neither the nature of nor the magnitude of these effects can be determined with certainty on the basis of the type of data currently available. The lack of consistent, long-term regional and national monitoring and study of pesticides in atmospheric matrices severely limits assessment capability.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1917

Life zone investigations in Wyoming

Wyoming is among the foremost of our States in its wealth of natural scenery, culminating in the grandeur of Yellowstone National Park, one of the wonders of the world. In addition to this distinction it posseses vast open plains and lofty mountains whence flow the headwaters of mighty river systems emptying far away to the west into the Pacific Ocean, to the southeast into the Gulf of Mexico, and to the southwest into the Gulf of California. The various slope exposures of its mountain ranges, the fertility of its intervening valleys or basins, and the aridity of its desert spaces present a study of geographic and vertical distribution of wild life that is in many particulars unique. The study of geographic and vertical distribution of life with the governing factors and attendant problems is valuable as a matter of scientific research and in the attainment of practical knowledge. The Biological Survey has been making detailed investigations of the transcontinental life belts, or zones, of North America for some years, and this work has been carried on with special reference to their practical value. It has become increasingly evident that life zones furnish a fairly accurate index to average climatic conditions and, therefore, are useful as marking the limits of agricultural possibilities, so far as these are dependent upon climate. The knowledge thus gained has been published and made available as the investigations have progressed and the life zones have been mapped. 1

North American Fauna↗

USGS2021

Precipitation-runoff processes in the Merced River Basin, Central California, with prospects for streamflow predictability, water years 1952–2013

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), has constructed a new spatially detailed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model for the Merced River Basin, California, which is a tributary of the San Joaquin River in California. Operated through an Object User Interface (OUI) with Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and daily climate distribution preprocessing functionality, the model is calibrated primarily to simulate (and eventually, forecast) year-to-year variations of inflows to Lake McClure during the critical April–July snowmelt season. The model is intended to become part of a suite of methods used by DWR for estimating daily streamflow from the Merced River Basin, especially during the snowmelt season. This study describes the results of the application of an analysis tool that simulates responses to climate and land-use variations at a higher spatial resolution than previously available to DWR. A geographic information system was used to delineate the model domain, that is, areas draining to a single outlet at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 11270900, Merced River below Merced Falls Dam, near Snell, CA (also known as California Data Exchange Center station MRC), and subdrainage areas, including four draining to internal gages used as calibration targets. Using this delineation, three contiguous subbasins were recognized and, along with the model domain and nested calibration targets, are the simulation units evaluated in this report. An auto-calibration tool, LUCA (Let Us CAlibrate), was used for each calibration node, from headwaters to basin outlet, and then parameters were manually adjusted to complete the calibration. The main objective was to match April–July snowmelt seasonal discharge values of simulated streamflow to observed (measured or reconstructed) discharge values. Calibration or validation periods used site-specific streamflows—mostly from October 1, 1988, through September 30, 2013—but differed according to the period-of-record available for the measurements collected at internal gages or reconstructed flows for the single outlet. The accuracy of the Merced PRMS streamflow simulations varied seasonally, as compared to observed values. Based on statistical results, the Merced PRMS model satisfactorily simulated snowmelt seasonal streamflows. April–July calibrations for all areas had small negative bias (not greater than 7 percent) and low relative error (less than 8 percent). Less satisfactory performance for other seasons was attributed to several factors: (1) high uncertainty in low or zero flows in summer and fall, (2) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and anthropogenic water use, (3) unavailability and (or) inaccuracy of observed (measured) meteorological input data, and (4) uncertainty in reconstructed streamflow data. With some additional refinement, the Merced PRMS model may be used for forecasting seasonal and longer-term streamflow variations; evaluating forecasted and past climate and land cover changes; providing water-resource managers with a consistent and documented method for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites within the basin; and aiding environmental studies, hydraulic design, water management, and water-quality projects in the Merced River Basin.

California↗

USGS1997

Water-quality assessment of the Las Vegas Valley area and the Carson and Truckee River basins, Nevada and California: Nutrients, pesticides, and suspended sediment, October 1969-April 1990

The U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) is designed to provide long-term, consistent information on water quality that can be used to describe local, regional, and national conditions. The full-scale NAWQA Program, initiated in 1991, includes both study-unit and national synthesis activities. Study-unit investigations provide scientific data and interpretations that will be integrated by national synthesis studies to assess the quality of the Nation's water resources. The Nevada Basin and Range (NVBR) study unit is one of 60 proposed NAWQA study units in the United States. These riverbasin-scale areas were selected to represent large proportions of the Nation's water use and population served by public supplies, and the Nation's geographic diversity. The NVBR study unit includes the Las Vegas Valley area, approximately 1,640 mi in southern Nevada, and the Carson River Basin (3,970 mi 2 ) and Truckee River Basin (3,230 mi 2 ) in northwestern Nevada and northeastern California. The areas are typical of Basin and Range physiography. Snowfall in high mountains provides streamflow and ground-water recharge in adjacent basins. Unconsolidated basin-fill deposits commonly exceed 1,000 ft in thickness and are principal aquifers in the study unit. The study-unit climate varies from humid continental in the Sierra Nevada where the Carson and Truckee Rivers originate (annual precipitation exceeds 30 in.) to desert in terminal parts of the basins, including the Carson Desert and lower altitudes in Las Vegas Valley, where annual precipitation is less than 5 in. In 1990, Nevada had the greatest population growth rate and the fourth greatest percentage of population residing in urban areas in the Nation. More than 90 percent of Nevada's population (about 1,090,000 in 1990) resided in the study unit; the Las Vegas Valley area (about 710,000) was the most populous area. In 1990, water use in the study unit was about 1,117,000 acre-ft. Water use in the Las Vegas Valley area was about 317,000 acre-ft; 91 percent was for public supplies. Las Vegas Valley was 79 percent range land, but the 5 percent urban land use has significantly affected water resources. Water use in the Carson River Basin was 538,000 acre-ft in 1990. About 95 percent of the water was used for irrigation, although only 5 percent of the land was used for irrigated agriculture. Water use in the Truckee River Basin was 262,000 acre-ft in 1990. Public supply used about 36 percent of the water, although only 3 percent of the land was urban. Nutrients, pesticides, and suspended sediments are important water-quality issues in the study unit. Urban runoff and treated sewage effluent contribute these constituents to Las Vegas Wash and the Truckee River. Urban and agricultural activities in the Carson and Truckee River Basins are also sources of these constituents.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2013

Challenge theme 1: Understanding and preserving ecological resources: Chapter 3 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

The notable biodiversity within the United States–Mexican border region is driven by the wide variety of natural landscapes in the area and its biologically unique transition zone of habitats for xeric, temperate, and subtropical species. Six diverse ecoregions cover the length of the border (fig. 3–1): California Coastal Sage, Chaparral, and Oak Woodlands; Sonoran Desert; Madrean Archipelago; Chihuahuan Desert; Southern Texas Plains; and Western Gulf Coastal Plain. The unique geology and many of the distinctive geographic features and climatic conditions that have given rise to the diverse populations of plants and animals found in the Borderlands also attract human populations. The number of people living in the Borderlands has increased dramatically over recent years, from about 7 million in 1980 to almost 12 million in 2003; the population is estimated to be more than 18 million by 2020 (Peach and Williams, 2003). The human population increase and associated change in land use have contributed to habitat fragmentation and habitat loss for native species, thus threatening their survival. Some ways in which humans negatively affect plants and animals in the Borderlands include dewatering of aquatic ecosystems, water pollution, introduction and spread of invasive species, outdoor lighting, military and border enforcement activity, and energy development and transmission.

United States-Mexico Borderlands↗

USGS2015

Predicting locations of post-fire debris-flow erosionin the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California

Timely hazard assessments are needed to assess post-fire debris flows that may impact communities located within and adjacent to recently burned areas. Implementing existing models for debris-flow probability and magnitude can be time-consuming because the geographic extent for applying the models is manually defined. In this study, a model is presented for predicting locations of post-fire debris-flow erosion. This model is further calibrated to identify the geographic extent for applying post-fire hazard assessment models. Aerial photographs were used to map locations of post-fire debris-flow erosion and deposition in the San Gabriel Mountains. Terrain, burn severity, and soil characteristics expected to influence debris-flow erosion and deposition were calculated for each mapped location using 10-m resolution DEMs, GIS data for burn severity, and soil surveys. Multiple logistic regression was used to develop a model that predicts the probability of erosion as a function of channel slope, planform curvature, and the length of the longest upstream flow path. The model was validated using an independent database of mapped locations of debris-flow erosion and deposition and found to make accurate and precise predictions. The model was further calibrated by identifying the average percentage of the drainage network classified as erosion for mapped locations where debris flows transitioned from eroding to depositing material. The calibrated model provides critical information for consistent and timely application of post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment models and the ability to identify locations of post-fire debris-flow erosion.

California↗

USGS2010

Biogenic sedimentation beneath the California Current system for the past 30 kyr and its paleoceanographic significance

A north-south transect of 17 cores was constructed along the eastern boundary of the California Current system from 33° to 42°N to investigate the changes in biogenic sedimentation over the past 30 kyr. Percentages and mass accumulation rates of CaCO 3 , C org , and biogenic opal were assembled at 500 to 1000 years/sample to provide relatively high resolution. Time-space maps reveal a complex pattern of changes that do not follow a simple glacial-interglacial two-mode model. Biogenic sedimentation shows responses that are sometimes time-transgressive and sometimes coeval, and most of the responses show more consistency within a limited geographic area than any temporal consistency. Reconstructed conditions during late oxygen isotope stage 3 were more like early Holocene conditions than any other time during the last 30 kyr. Coastal upwelling and productivity during oxygen isotope stage 3 were relatively strong along the central California margin but were weak along the northern California margin. Precipitation increased during the last glacial interval in the central California region, and the waters of the southern California margin had relatively low productivity. Productivity on the southern Oregon margin was relatively low at the beginning of the last glacial interval, but by about 20 ka, productivity in this area significantly increased. This change suggests that the center of the divergence of the West Wind Drift shifted south at this time. The end of the last glacial interval was characterized by increased productivity in the southern California margin and increased upwelling along the central California margin but upwelling remained weak along the northern California margin. A sudden (<300 years) decrease in CaCO 3 , C org , and biogenic opal occurred at 13 ka. The changes suggest a major reorientation of the atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific and western North America and the establishment of a strong seasonality in the central California region. A carbonate preservation event occurred at 10 ka that appears to reflect the uptake of CO 2 by the terrestrial biosphere as the northern latitudes were reforested following retreat of the glaciers. The Holocene has been a period of relatively high productivity in the southern California margin, relatively strong coastal upwelling along the central California margin, relatively weak upwelling along the northern California margin, and the northward migration of the divergence zone of the West Wind Drift.

Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology↗

USGS2003

Nearshore benthic habitat GIS for the Channel Islands National Sanctuary and southern California State Fisheries Reserves. Volume 1

The nearshore benthic habitat of the Santa Barbara coast and Channel Islands supports diverse marine life that is commercially, recreationally, and intrinsically valuable. Some of these resources are known to be endangered including a variety of rockfish and the white abalone. Agencies of the state of California and the United States have been mandated to preserve and enhance these resources. Data from sidescan sonar, bathymetry, video and dive observations, and physical samples are consolidated in a geographic information system (GIS). The GIS provides researchers and policymakers a view of the relationship among data sets to assist scienctific research and to help with economic and social policy-making decisions regarding this protected environment.

California↗

USGS2020

Real-time performance of the PLUM earthquake early warning method during the 2019 M6.4 and M7.1 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquakes

We evaluate the timeliness and accuracy of ground‐motion‐based earthquake early warning (EEW) during the July 2019 M 6.4 and 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquakes. In 2018, we began retrospective and internal real‐time testing of the propagation of local undamped motion (PLUM) method for earthquake warning in California, Oregon, and Washington, with the potential that PLUM might one day be included in the ShakeAlert EEW system. A real‐time version of PLUM was running on one of the ShakeAlert EEW system’s development servers at the time of the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence, allowing us to evaluate the timeliness and accuracy of PLUM’s warnings for the M 6.4 and 7.1 mainshocks in real time with the actual data availability and latencies of the operational ShakeAlert EEW system. The latter is especially important because high‐data latencies during the M 7.1 earthquake degraded ShakeAlert’s performance. PLUM proved to be largely immune to these latencies. In this article, we present a retrospective analysis of PLUM performance and explore three potential regional alerting strategies ranging from spatially large regions (counties), to moderate‐size regions (National Weather Service public forecast zones), to high‐spatial specificity (50 km regular geographic grid). PLUM generated initial shaking forecasts for the two mainshocks 5 and 6 s after their respective origin times, and faster than the ShakeAlert system’s first alerts. PLUM was also able to accurately forecast shaking across southern California for all three alerting strategies studied. As would be expected, a cost‐benefit analysis of each approach illustrates trade‐offs between increasing warning time and minimizing the area receiving unneeded alerts. Choosing an optimal alerting strategy requires knowledge of users’ false alarm tolerance and minimum required warning time for taking protective action, as well as the time required to distribute alerts to users.

California↗

USGS2018

Genome-wide SNP data and morphology support the distinction of two new species of Kovarikia Soleglad, Fet & Graham, 2014 endemic to California (Scorpiones, Vaejovidae)

Morphologically conserved taxa such as scorpions represent a challenge to delimit. We recently discovered populations of scorpions in the genus Kovarikia Soleglad, Fet & Graham, 2014 on two isolated mountain ranges in southern California. We generated genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism data and used Bayes factors species delimitation to compare alternative species delimitation scenarios which variously placed scorpions from the two localities with geographically adjacent species or into separate lineages. We also estimated a time-calibrated phylogeny of Kovarikia and examined and compared the morphology of preserved specimens from across its distribution. Genetic results strongly support the distinction of two new lineages, which we describe and name here. Morphology among the species of Kovarikia was relatively conserved, despite deep genetic divergences, consistent with recent studies of stenotopic scorpions with limited vagility. Phylogeographic structure discovered in several previously described species also suggests additional cryptic species are probably present in the genus.

California↗

USGS1989

Species profiles: Life histories and environmental requirements of coastal fishes and invertebrates (Pacific Northwest)--ghost and blue mud shrimp

Geographic range: The ghost shrimp is found in intertidal areas along the west coast of North America from Mutiny Bay, Alaska, to the mouth of the Tijuana River, San Diego County, California; MacGinitie (1934) and Ricketts and Calvin (1968) reported finding specimens as far south as El Estuario de Punto Banda, Baja California Norte, Mexico. The blue mud shrimp is found from southeastern Alaska to San Quentin Bay (Bahia de San Quentin) in Baja California Norte. The general distribution of the two species in the Pacific Northwest is identical (Figure 3).

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2012

Dust deposition in southern Nevada and California, 1984–1989: Relations to climate, source area, and source lithology

Dust samples collected annually for 5 years from 55 sites in southern Nevada and California provide the first regional source of information on modern rates of dust deposition, grain size, and mineralogical and chemical composition relative to climate and to type and lithology of dust source. The average silt and clay flux (rate of deposition) in southern Nevada and southeastern California ranges from 4.3 to 15.7 g/m 2 /yr, but in southwestern California the average silt and clay flux is as high as 30 g/m 2 /yr. The climatic factors that affect dust flux interact with each other and with the factors of source type (playas versus alluvium), source lithology, geographic area, and human disturbance. Average dust flux increases with mean annual temperature but is not correlated to decreases in mean annual precipitation because the regional winds bring dust to relatively wet areas. In contrast, annual dust flux mostly reflects changes in annual precipitation (relative drought) rather than temperature. Although playa and alluvial sources produce about the same amount of dust per unit area, the total volume of dust from the more extensive alluvial sources is much larger. In addition, playa and alluvial sources respond differently to annual changes in precipitation. Most playas produce dust that is richer in soluble salts and carbonate than that from alluvial sources (except carbonate‐rich alluvium). Gypsum dust may be produced by the interaction of carbonate dust and anthropogenic or marine sulfates. The dust flux in an arid urbanizing area may be as much as twice that before disturbance but decreases when construction stops. The mineralogic and major‐oxide composition of the dust samples indicates that sand and some silt is locally derived and deposited, whereas clay and some silt from different sources can be far‐traveled. Dust deposited in the Transverse Ranges of California by the Santa Ana winds appears to be mainly derived from sources to the north and east.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2010

A portfolio approach to evaluating natural hazard mitigation policies: An application to lateral-spread ground failure in coastal California

In the past, efforts to prevent catastrophic losses from natural hazards have largely been undertaken by individual property owners based on site—specific evaluations of risks to particular buildings. Public efforts to assess community vulnerability and encourage mitigation have focused on either aggregating site—specific estimates or adopting standards based upon broad assumptions about regional risks. This paper develops an alternative, intermediate—scale approach to regional risk assessment and the evaluation of community mitigation policies. Properties are grouped into types with similar land uses and levels of hazard, and hypothetical community mitigation strategies for protecting these properties are modeled like investment portfolios. The portfolios consist of investments in mitigation against the risk to a community posed by a specific natural hazard. and are defined by a community's mitigation budget and the proportion of the budget invested in locations of each type. The usefulness of this approach is demonstrated through an integrated assessment of earthquake—induced lateral—spread ground failure risk in the Watsonville, California area. Data from the magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989 are used to model lateral—spread ground failure susceptibility. Earth science and economic data are combined and analyzed in a Geographic Information System (CIS). The portfolio model is then used to evaluate the benefits of mitigating the risk in different locations. Two mitigation policies, one that prioritizes mitigation by land use type and the other by hazard zone, are compared with a status quo policy of doing no further mitigation beyond that which already exists. The portfolio representing the hazard zone rule yields a higher expected return than the land use portfolio does; however, the hazard zone portfolio experiences a higher standard deviation. Therefore, neither portfolio is clearly preferred. The two mitigation policies both reduce expected losses and increase overall expected community wealth compared to the status quo policy.

California↗

USGS2011

Comment on "Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species' optimum elevations"

Crimmins et al . (Reports, 21 January 2011, p. 324) attributed an apparent downward elevational shift of California plant species to a precipitation-induced decline in climatic water deficit. We show that the authors miscalculated deficit, that the apparent decline in species’ elevations is likely a consequence of geographic biases, and that unlike temperature changes, precipitation changes should not be expected to cause coordinated directional shifts in species’ elevations.

California↗