Long-term change in metabolism phenology in north temperate lakes

Abstract

The phenology of dissolved oxygen (DO) dynamics and metabolism in north temperate lakes offers a basis for comparing metabolic cycles over multi-year time scales. Although proximal control over lake DO can be attributed to metabolism and physical processes, how those processes evolve over decades largely remains unexplored. Metabolism phenology may reveal the importance of coherence among lakes and facilitate general conclusions about the controls on lake metabolism at regional scales. We developed a Bayesian modeling framework to estimate DO concentrations and metabolism in eight lakes in contrasting landscapes in Wisconsin, USA. We identify the DO and metabolism phenologies for each lake, and use those to compare how decadal patterns relate to trophic state and landscape setting. We show that lakes can be categorized by their hypolimnetic oxygen consumption dynamics, with oligotrophic lakes having a diverse set of patterns and eutrophic lakes having uniform trends of increased oxygen consumption over the last decade. Metabolism phenology is likewise diverse for oligotrophic lakes, whereas eutrophic lakes in southern Wisconsin share consistent long-term patterns of metabolic trends and seasonal DO consumption highlighting the importance of trophic state driving metabolism. Eutrophic lakes had higher magnitudes and more seasonal variation in net ecosystem production in contrast to oligotrophic lakes. Generally, long-term metabolic trends of north temperate lakes suggest a limited influence of climate on lake metabolism and that temporal coherence of long-term metabolism change is driven primarily by the landscape setting.