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Research about Colorado

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Colorado.

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Probability and volume of potential postwildfire debris flows in the 2012 High Park Burn Area near Fort Collins, Colorado

This report presents a preliminary emergency assessment of the debris-flow hazards from drainage basins burned by the 2012 High Park fire near Fort Collins in Larimer County, Colorado. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volume of debris flows along the burned area drainage network and to estimate the same for 44 selected drainage basins along State Highway 14 and the perimeter of the burned area. Input data for the models included topographic parameters, soil characteristics, burn severity, and rainfall totals and intensities for a (1) 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall (25 millimeters); (2) 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall (43 millimeters); and (3) 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall (51 millimeters). Estimated debris-flow probabilities along the drainage network and throughout the drainage basins of interest ranged from 1 to 84 percent in response to the 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall; from 2 to 95 percent in response to the 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall; and from 3 to 97 in response to the 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall. Basins and drainage networks with the highest probabilities tended to be those on the eastern edge of the burn area where soils have relatively high clay contents and gradients are steep. Estimated debris-flow volumes range from a low of 1,600 cubic meters to a high of greater than 100,000 cubic meters. Estimated debris-flow volumes increase with basin size and distance along the drainage network, but some smaller drainages were also predicted to produce substantial volumes of material. The predicted probabilities and some of the volumes predicted for the modeled storms indicate a potential for substantial debris-flow impacts on structures, roads, bridges, and culverts located both within and immediately downstream from the burned area. Colorado State Highway 14 is also susceptible to impacts from debris flows.

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Probability and volume of potential postwildfire debris flows in the 2012 Waldo Canyon Burn Area near Colorado Springs, Colorado

This report presents a preliminary emergency assessment of the debris-flow hazards from drainage basins burned by the 2012 Waldo Canyon fire near Colorado Springs in El Paso County, Colorado. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and potential volume of debris flows along the drainage network of the burned area and to estimate the same for 22 selected drainage basins along U.S. Highway 24 and the perimeter of the burned area. Input data for the models included topographic parameters, soil characteristics, burn severity, and rainfall totals and intensities for a (1) 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 2-year storm (29 millimeters); (2) 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 10-year storm (42 millimeters); and (3) 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 25-year storm (48 millimeters). Estimated debris-flow probabilities at the pour points of the the drainage basins of interest ranged from less than 1 to 54 percent in response to the 2-year storm; from less than 1 to 74 percent in response to the 10-year storm; and from less than 1 to 82 percent in response to the 25-year storm. Basins and drainage networks with the highest probabilities tended to be those on the southern and southeastern edge of the burn area where soils have relatively high clay contents and gradients are steep. Nine of the 22 drainage basins of interest have greater than a 40-percent probability of producing a debris flow in response to the 10-year storm. Estimated debris-flow volumes for all rainfalls modeled range from a low of 1,500 cubic meters to a high of greater than 100,000 cubic meters. Estimated debris-flow volumes increase with basin size and distance along the drainage network, but some smaller drainages were also predicted to produce substantial volumes of material. The predicted probabilities and some of the volumes predicted for the modeled storms indicate a potential for substantial debris-flow impacts on structures, reservoirs, roads, bridges, and culverts located both within and immediately downstream from the burned area. U.S. Highway 24, on the southern edge of the burn area, is also susceptible to impacts from debris flows.

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Fort Collins Science Center-Fiscal year 2011 science accomplishments

The Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) is a multi-disciplinary research and development center of the U.S. Geological Survey located in Fort Collins, Colorado. FORT research focuses on the needs of land- and water-management bureaus within the U.S. Department of the Interior, other Federal agencies, and State, Tribal, and non-government organizations. We emphasize a multi-disciplinary science approach to provide information for natural resource management decisionmaking. Our vision is to maintain and continuously improve the integrated, collaborative, world-class research needed to inform effective, science-based land management. The 2011 science accomplishments report provides an executive summary highlighting key achievements, an appendix of 68 one-page accomplishment descriptions organized by U.S. Geological Survey Mission Area, and a complete list of publications and other products generated in FY2011. The executive summary includes a table cross-referencing all major FY11 accomplishments with the various Mission Areas each supports.

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Landslides in Colorado, USA--Impacts and loss estimation for 2010

The focus of this study is to investigate landslides and consequent losses which affected Colorado in the year 2010. By obtaining landslide reports from a variety of sources, this report will demonstrate the feasibility of creating a profile of landslides and their effects on communities. A short overview of the current status of landslide-loss studies for the United States is introduced, followed by a compilation of landslide occurrence and associated losses and impacts which affected Colorado for the year 2010. Direct costs are summarized in descriptive and tabular form, and where possible, indirect costs are also noted or estimated. Total direct costs of landslides in Colorado for the year 2010 were approximately $9,149,335.00 (2010 U.S. dollars). (Since not all data for damages and costs were obtained, this figure realistically could be considerably higher.) Indirect costs were noted where available but are not totaled due to the fact that most indirect costs were not obtainable for various reasons outlined later in this report. Casualty data are considered as being within the scope of loss evaluation, and are reported in Appendix 1, but are not assigned dollar losses. More details on the source material for loss data not found in the reference section are reported in Appendix 2, and Appendix 3 summarizes notes on landslide-loss investigations in general and lessons learned during the process of loss-data collection.

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Determination of selenium in fish from designated critical habitat of the Gunnison River, Colorado, summer 2011

This report presents results for the summer 2011 sampling of muscle plugs from common carps (Cyprinus Linnaeus), roundtail chub (Gila robusta), and bonytail chub (Gila elegans) inhabiting critical habitat in the Gunnison River in Western Colorado. Total selenium in fish muscle plugs was determined by instrumental neutron activation analysis. Total selenium concentrations (range and mean ± standard deviation) in micrograms per gram dry weight for each species were as follows: common carp: 8.5 to 35, 13 ± 7.8; roundtail chub: 5.5 to 11.2, 7.3 ± 1.6; bonytail chub: 0.8 to 8.6, 3.9 ± 4.2. Selenium concentrations in muscle plugs from 4 out of 15 roundtail chub, all 15 common carp, and 2 out of 5 bonytail chub exceeded the 8 micrograms per gram dry weight toxicity guideline for selenium in fish muscle tissue.

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Geologic map of the Cochetopa Park and North Pass Calderas, northeastern San Juan Mountains, Colorado

The San Juan Mountains in southwestern Colorado have long been known as a site of exceptionally voluminous mid-Tertiary volcanism, including at least 22 major ignimbrite sheets (each 150-5,000 km 3 ) and associated caldera structures active at 33-23 Ma. Recent volcanologic and petrologic studies in the San Juan region have focused mainly on several ignimbrite-caldera systems: the southeastern area (Platoro complex), western calderas (Uncompahgre-Silverton-Lake City), and the central cluster (La Garita-Creede calderas). Far less studied has been the northeastern San Juan region, which occupies a transition between earlier volcanism in central Colorado and large-volume younger ignimbrite-caldera foci farther south and west. The present map is based on new field coverage of volcanic rocks in seventeen 7.5' quadrangles in northeastern parts of the volcanic field, high-resolution age determinations for 120 new sites, and petrologic studies involving several hundred new chemical analyses. This mapping and the accompanying lab results (1) document volcanic evolution of the previously unrecognized North Pass caldera and the morphologically beautifully preserved but enigmatic Cochetopa basin, including unique features not previously described from ignimbrite calderas elsewhere; (2) provide evidence for a more rapid recurrence of large ignimbrite eruptions than previously known elsewhere; (3) quantify the regional time-space-volume progression from the earlier Sawatch magmatic trend southward into the San Juan region; and (4) permit more rigorous comparison between the broad mid-Tertiary magmatic belt in the western U.S. Cordillera and the type continental-margin arc volcanism in the central Andes.

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Description and validation of an automated methodology for mapping mineralogy, vegetation, and hydrothermal alteration type from ASTER satellite imagery with examples from the San Juan Mountains, Colorado

The efficacy of airborne spectroscopic, or "hyperspectral," remote sensing for geoenvironmental watershed evaluations and deposit-scale mapping of exposed mineral deposits has been demonstrated. However, the acquisition, processing, and analysis of such airborne data at regional and national scales can be time and cost prohibitive. The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) sensor carried by the NASA Earth Observing System Terra satellite was designed for mineral mapping and the acquired data can be efficiently used to generate uniform mineral maps over very large areas. Multispectral remote sensing data acquired by the ASTER sensor were analyzed to identify and map minerals, mineral groups, hydrothermal alteration types, and vegetation groups in the western San Juan Mountains, Colorado, including the Silverton and Lake City calderas. This mapping was performed in support of multidisciplinary studies involving the predictive modeling of surface water geochemistry at watershed and regional scales. Detailed maps of minerals, vegetation groups, and water were produced from an ASTER scene using spectroscopic, expert system-based analysis techniques which have been previously described. New methodologies are presented for the modeling of hydrothermal alteration type based on the Boolean combination of the detailed mineral maps, and for the entirely automated mapping of alteration types, mineral groups, and green vegetation. Results of these methodologies are compared with the more detailed maps and with previously published mineral mapping results derived from analysis of high-resolution spectroscopic data acquired by the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) sensor. Such comparisons are also presented for other mineralized and (or) altered areas including the Goldfield and Cuprite mining districts, Nevada and the central Marysvale volcanic field, Wah Wah Mountains, and San Francisco Mountains, Utah. The automated mineral group mapping products described in this study are ideal for application to mineral resource and mineral-environmental assessments at regional and national scales.

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Bathymetry of Groundhog Reservoir, Dolores County, Colorado, 2011

In order to better characterize the water supply capacity of Groundhog Reservoir, Dolores County, Colorado, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Dolores Water Conservancy District, conducted a bathymetric survey of Groundhog Reservoir. The study was performed in June 2011 using a man-operated boat-mounted multibeam echo sounder integrated with a global positioning system and a terrestrial real-time kinematic global positioning system. The two collected datasets were merged and imported into geographic information system software. A bathymetric map of the reservoir was generated in addition to plots for the stage-area and the stage-volume relations.

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Bathymetry of Totten Reservoir, Montezuma County, Colorado, 2011

In order to better characterize the water supply capacity of Totten Reservoir, Montezuma County, Colorado, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Dolores Water Conservancy District, conducted a bathymetric survey of Totten Reservoir. The study was performed in June 2011 using a man-operated boat-mounted multibeam echo sounder integrated with a global positioning system and a terrestrial real-time kinematic global positioning system. The two collected datasets were merged and imported into geographic information system software. A bathymetric map of the reservoir was generated in addition to plots for the stage-area and the stage-volume relations.

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Surficial Geologic Map of Mesa Verde National Park, Montezuma County, Colorado

Mesa Verde National Park in southwestern Colorado was established in 1906 to preserve and protect the artifacts and dwelling sites, including the famous cliff dwellings, of the Ancestral Puebloan people who lived in the area from about A.D. 550 to A.D. 1300. In 1978, the United Nations designated the park as a World Heritage Site. The geology of the park played a key role in the lives of these ancient people. For example, the numerous (approximately 600) cliff dwellings are closely associated with the Cliff House Sandstone of Late Cretaceous age, which weathers to form deep alcoves. In addition, the ancient people farmed the thick, red loess (wind-blown dust) deposits on the mesa tops, which because of its particle size distribution has good moisture retention properties. The soil in this loess cover and the seasonal rains allowed these people to grow their crops (corn, beans, and squash) on the broad mesa tops. Today, geology is still an important concern in the Mesa Verde area because the landscape is susceptible to various forms of mass movement (landslides, debris flows, rockfalls), swelling soils, and flash floods that affect the park's archeological sites and its infrastructure (roads, septic systems, utilities, and building sites). The map, which encompasses an area of about 100 mi 2 (260 km 2 ), includes all of Mesa Verde National Park, a small part of the Ute Mountain Indian Reservation that borders the park on its southern and western sides, and some Bureau of Land Management and privately owned land to the north and east. Surficial deposits depicted on the map include: artificial fills, alluvium of small ephemeral streams, alluvium deposited by the Mancos River, residual gravel on high mesas, a combination of alluvial and colluvial deposits, fan deposits, colluvial deposits derived from the Menefee Formation, colluvial deposits derived from the Mancos Shale, rockfall deposits, debris flow deposits, earthflow deposits, translational and rotational landslide deposits, rock rubble deposits, and loess. Bedrock units depicted on the map include the Cliff House Sandstone, Menefee Formation, Point Lookout Sandstone, and Mancos Shale all of Late Cretaceous age. In addition, minette dikes, of Oligocene age, found at several locations in the park are depicted on the map. Descriptions, including associated hazards and resources as used by the Ancestral Puebloans, are given for all map units.

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Channel-pattern and cross-section changes in selected reaches of Elkhead Creek, northwestern Colorado, 1938-2009

Elkhead Creek near Craig, Colorado, is a sinuous, meandering stream whose lower 9 river miles have been regulated by Elkhead Reservoir and Dam since 1974. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado River Water Conservation District, conducted a study from 2009 to 2010 that evaluated channel-pattern and cross-section changes and identified possible causes of streambank erosion in Elkhead Creek that could have been affected by Elkhead Dam and Reservoir. Aerial photographs taken from 1937 through 2009, streamflow records from water years 1953 through 2009, and channel surveys and sediment measurements made in 1997 and 2009 were used to analyze streambed and streambank erosion both downstream and upstream from the reservoir. Erosional trends were evaluated by calculating meander migration rates determined from analyses of georectified aerial photographs and from replicate channel surveys at monumented cross sections established in a previous study. The aerial photography dates defined four periods of roughly equal lengths for which mean meander migration rates were determined. Two periods were prior to and two periods were after Elkhead Reservoir was constructed.

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Statistical relations of salt and selenium loads to geospatial characteristics of corresponding subbasins of the Colorado and Gunnison Rivers in Colorado

Elevated loads of salt and selenium can impair the quality of water for both anthropogenic and natural uses. Understanding the environmental processes controlling how salt and selenium are introduced to streams is critical to managing and mitigating the effects of elevated loads. Dominant relations between salt and selenium loads and environmental characteristics can be established by using geospatial data. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, investigated statistical relations between seasonal salt or selenium loads emanating from the Upper Colorado River Basin and geospatial data. Salt and selenium loads measured during the irrigation and nonirrigation seasons were related to geospatial variables for 168 subbasins within the Gunnison and Colorado River Basins. These geospatial variables represented subbasin characteristics of the physical environment, precipitation, geology, land use, and the irrigation network. All subbasin variables with units of area had statistically significant relations with load. The few variables that were not in units of area but were statistically significant helped to identify types of geospatial data that might influence salt and selenium loading. Following a stepwise approach, combinations of these statistically significant variables were used to develop multiple linear regression models. The models can be used to help prioritize areas where salt and selenium control projects might be most effective.

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Comparison of two methods for estimating base flow in selected reaches of the South Platte River, Colorado

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, compared two methods for estimating base flow in three reaches of the South Platte River between Denver and Kersey, Colorado. The two methods compared in this study are the Mass Balance and the Pilot Point methods. Base-flow estimates made with the two methods were based upon a 54-year period of record (1950 to 2003). The Mass Balance method for estimating base flow is based on a mass balance of all known inflows to and outflows from a given stream reach, with the equation being solved for groundwater flow into or out of the reach. A positive mass balance indicates a gaining reach (base flow) and a negative balance indicates a losing reach. The mass balance was calculated using daily mean streamflow, wastewater treatment plant discharge, and stream diversion data. Monthly mean base flow was calculated as the average of all daily mean mass-balance results for a given month. The Pilot Point method is based on a daily mean mass balance of all inflows to and outflows from a stream reach. The Pilot Point differs from the Mass Balance method in that extreme daily mass-balance results are constrained utilizing two analytical solutions that represent the maximum possible streamflow gain or loss. Additionally, the Pilot Point method utilizes a smoothing function, based on a moving average of the daily constrained mass-balance results. The moving average for this study utilized a moving-average period, called the bin width, of 61 days. The maximum and minimum base-flow constraints and the smoothing function are utilized to provide base-flow estimates that exhibit reasonable maximum values and temporal variability consistent with the concept of groundwater flow being gradual and slow. Both the Mass Balance and Pilot Point results provided similar patterns in annual and monthly base flow. All three reaches were indicated to be gaining reaches, particularly after about 1970, with the magnitude of base flow increasing downstream. This degree of similarity between the two methods was expected because both methods are based on a streamflow mass balance. The magnitude of estimates provided by the two methods was measurably different. The stream gains and losses estimated using the Mass Balance method were consistently more variable and of greater magnitude than those estimated using the Pilot Point method. In the Denver to Henderson reach, the median estimated annual mean base flow was 34.0 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) using the Mass Balance method and was 39.1 ft 3 /s using the Pilot Point method. In the Henderson to Fort Lupton reach, the median estimated annual mean base flow was 50.0 ft 3 /s using the Mass Balance method and was 40.0 ft 3 /s using the Pilot Point method. In the Fort Lupton to Kersey reach, the median estimated annual mean base flow was 234 ft 3 /s using the Mass Balance method and was 214 ft 3 /s using the Pilot Point method. The Mass Balance results were quite variable over time such that they appeared suspect with respect to the concept of groundwater flow as being gradual and slow. The large degree of variability in the day-to-day and month-to-month Mass Balance results is likely the result of many factors. These factors could include ungaged stream inflows or outflows, short-term streamflow losses to and gains from temporary bank storage, and any lag in streamflow accounting owing to streamflow lag time of flow within a reach. The Pilot Point time series results were much less variable than the Mass Balance results and extreme values were effectively constrained. Less day-to-day variability, smaller magnitude extreme values, and smoother transitions in base-flow estimates provided by the Pilot Point method are more consistent with a conceptual model of groundwater flow being gradual and slow. The Pilot Point method provided a better fit to the conceptual model of groundwater flow and appeared to provide reasonable estimates of base flow.

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The systematic geologic mapping program and a quadrangle-by-quadrangle analysis of time-stratigraphic relations within oil shale-bearing rocks of the Piceance Basin, western Colorado

During the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, the U.S. Geological Survey mapped the entire area underlain by oil shale of the Eocene Green River Formation in the Piceance Basin of western Colorado. The Piceance Basin contains the largest known oil shale deposit in the world, with an estimated 1.53 trillion barrels of oil in place and as much as 400,000 barrels of oil per acre. This report places the sixty-nine 7½-minute geologic quadrangle maps and one 15-minute quadrangle map published during this period into a comprehensive time-stratigraphic framework based on the alternating rich and lean oil shale zones. The quadrangles are placed in their respective regional positions on one large stratigraphic chart so that tracking the various stratigraphic unit names that have been applied can be followed between adjacent quadrangles. Members of the Green River Formation were defined prior to the detailed mapping, and many inconsistencies and correlation problems had to be addressed as mapping progressed. As a result, some of the geologic units that were defined prior to mapping were modified or discarded. The extensive body of geologic data provided by the detailed quadrangle maps contributes to a better understanding of the distribution and characteristics of the oil shale-bearing rocks across the Piceance Basin.

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Preliminary assessment of sources of nitrogen in groundwater at a biosolids-application area near Deer Trail

Concentrations of dissolved nitrite plus nitrate increased fairly steadily in samples from four shallow groundwater monitoring wells after biosolids applications to nonirrigated farmland began in 1993. The U.S. Geological Survey began a preliminary assessment of sources of nitrogen in shallow groundwater at part of the biosolids-application area near Deer Trail, Colorado, in 2005 in cooperation with the Metro Wastewater Reclamation District. Possible nitrogen sources in the area include biosolids, animal manure, inorganic fertilizer, atmospheric deposition, and geologic materials (bedrock and soil). Biosolids from the Metro Wastewater Reclamation District plant in Denver and biosolids, cow manure, geologic materials (bedrock and soil), and groundwater from the study area were sampled to measure nitrogen content and nitrogen isotopic compositions of nitrate or total nitrogen. Biosolids also were leached, and the leachates were analyzed for nitrogen content and other concentrations. Geologic materials from the study area also were sampled to determine mineralogy. Estimates of nitrogen contributed from inorganic fertilizer and atmospheric deposition were calculated from other published reports. The nitrogen information from the study indicates that each of the sources contain sufficient nitrogen to potentially affect groundwater nitrate concentrations. Natural processes can transform the nitrogen in any of the sources to nitrate in the groundwater. Load calculations indicate that animal manure, inorganic fertilizer, or atmospheric deposition could have contributed the largest nitrogen load to the study area in the 13 years before biosolids applications began, but biosolids likely contributed the largest nitrogen load to the study area in the 13 years after biosolids applications began. Various approaches provided insights into sources of nitrate in the groundwater samples from 2005. The isotopic data indicate that, of the source materials considered, biosolids and (or) animal manure were the most likely sources of nitrate in the wells at the time of sampling (2005), and that inorganic fertilizer, atmospheric deposition, and geologic materials were not substantial sources of nitrate in the wells in 2005. The large total nitrogen content of the biosolids and animal-manure samples and biosolids leachates also indicates that the biosolids and animal manure had potential to leach nitrogen and produce large dissolved nitrate concentrations in groundwater. The available data, however, could not be used to distinguish between biosolids or manure as the dominant source of nitrate in the groundwater because the nitrogen isotopic composition of the two materials is similar. Major-ion data also could not be used to distinguish between biosolids or manure as the dominant source of nitrate in the groundwater because the major-ion composition (as well as the isotopic composition) of the two materials is similar. Without additional data, chloride/bromide mass ratios do not necessarily support or refute the hypothesis that biosolids and (or) animal manure were the primary sources of nitrate in water from the study-area wells in 2005. Concentrations of water-extractable nitrate in the soil indicate that biosolids could be an important source of nitrate in the groundwater recharge. Nitrogen inventories in the soil beneath biosolids-application areas and the nitrogen-input estimates for the study area both support the comparisons of isotopic composition, which indicate that some type of human waste (such as biosolids) and (or) animal manure was the source of nitrate in groundwater sampled from the wells in 2005. The nitrogen-load estimates considered with the nitrogen isotopic data and the soil-nitrogen inventories indicate that biosolids applications likely are a major source of nitrogen to the shallow groundwater at these monitoring wells.

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Geologic and mineralogic controls on acid and metal-rich rock drainage in an alpine watershed, Handcart Gulch, Colorado

The surface and subsurface geology, hydrothermal alteration, and mineralogy of the Handcart Gulch area was studied using map and drill core data as part of a multidisciplinary approach to understand the hydrology and affects of geology on acid-rock drainage in a mineralized alpine watershed. Handcart Gulch was the locus of intense hydrothermal alteration that affected an area of nearly 3 square kilometers. Hydrothermal alteration and accompanied weak mineralization are spatially and genetically associated with small dacite to low-silica rhyolite stocks and plugs emplaced about 37-36 Ma. Felsic lithologies are commonly altered to a quartz-sericite-pyrite mineral assemblage at the surface, but alteration is more variable in the subsurface, ranging from quartz-sericite-pyrite-dominant in upper core sections to a propylitic variant that is more typical in deeper drill core intervals. Late-stage, hydrothermal argillic alteration [kaolinite and(or) smectite] was superimposed over earlier-formed alteration assemblages in the felsic rocks. Smectite in this late stage assemblage is mostly neoformed resulting from dissolution of chlorite, plagioclase, and minor illite in more weakly altered rocks. Hydrothermally altered amphibolites are characterized by biotitic alteration of amphibole, and subsequent alteration of both primary and secondary biotite to chlorite. Whereas pyrite is present both as disseminations and in small veinlets in the felsic lithologies, it is mostly restricted to small veinlets in the amphibolites. Base-metal sulfides including molybdenite, chalcopyrite, sphalerite, and galena are present in minor to trace amounts in the altered rocks. However, geologic data in conjunction with water geochemical studies indicate that copper mineralization may be present in unknown abundance in two distinct areas. The altered rocks contain an average of 8 weight percent fine pyrite that is largely devoid of metals in the crystal structure, which can be a significant source of trace metals in other areas with acid rock drainage. Thus, elevated base-metal concentrations in the trunk stream and discrete springs in the study area, as determined in previous studies, are likely derived from discrete metal-rich sources, rather than the abundant pyrite veins or disseminations. Pyrite is oxidized in nearly all outcrops examined. Drill core data show that zones of pyrite oxidation range in depth from 100 meters below the surface at higher elevations to just a few meters depth at the lowest elevations in the study area. However, discrete pyrite oxidation zones are present in drill core to depths of several hundred meters below the pervasive near-surface oxidation zones. These deeper discrete oxidation zones, which are present where fresh pyrite predominates, are spatially associated with fractures, small faults, and breccias. Quartz-sericite-pyrite-altered rocks containing unoxidized pyrite likely have the highest acid-generating capacity of all alteration assemblages in the study area. Hydrothermal alteration has left these rocks base-cation leached and thus acid-neutralizing potential is negligible. In contrast, propylitic-altered felsic rocks commonly contain trace to minor calcite and abundant chlorite, which provide some amount of acid-neutralization despite the presence of a few percent pyrite.

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Flow-adjusted trends in dissolved selenium load and concentration in the Gunnison and Colorado Rivers near Grand Junction, Colorado, water years 1986--2008

As a result of elevated selenium concentrations, many western Colorado rivers and streams are on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2010 Colorado 303(d) list, including the main stem of the Colorado River from the Gunnison River confluence to the Utah border. Selenium is a trace metal that bioaccumulates in aquatic food chains and can cause reproductive failure, deformities, and other adverse impacts in birds and fish, including several threatened and endangered fish species. Salinity in the upper Colorado River has been the focus of source-control efforts for many years. Although salinity loads and concentrations have been previously characterized at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations at the Gunnison River near Grand Junction, Colo., and at the Colorado River near the Colorado-Utah State line, trends in selenium load and concentration at these two stations have not been studied. The USGS, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation and the Colorado River Water Conservation District, evaluated dissolved selenium (herein referred to as "selenium") load and concentration trends at these two sites to inform decision makers on the status and trends of selenium. This report presents results of the evaluation of trends in selenium load and concentration for two USGS streamflow-gaging stations: the Gunnison River near Grand Junction, Colo. ("Gunnison River site"), USGS site 09152500, and the Colorado River near Colorado-Utah State line ("Colorado River site"), USGS site 09163500. Flow-adjusted selenium loads were estimated for the beginning water year (WY) of the study, 1986, and the ending WY of the study, 2008. The difference between flow-adjusted selenium loads for WY 1986 and WY 2008 was selected as the method of analysis because flow adjustment removes the natural variations in load caused by changes in mean-daily streamflow, emphasizing human-caused changes in selenium load and concentration. Overall changes in human-caused effects in selenium loads and concentrations during the period of study are of primary interest to the cooperators. Selenium loads for each of the 2 water years were calculated by using normalized mean-daily streamflow, measured selenium concentration, standard linear regression techniques, and data previously collected at the two study sites. Mean-daily streamflow was normalized for each site by averaging the daily streamflow for each day of the year over the 23-year period of record. Thus, for the beginning and ending water years, estimations could be made of loads that would have occurred without the effect of year-to-year streamflow variation. The loads thus calculated are illustrative of the change in loads between water years 1986 and 2008, and are not the actual loads that occurred in those 2 water years. The estimated 50th and 85th percentile selenium concentrations associated with the selenium loads were also calculated for WY 1986 and WY 2008 at each site. Time-trends in selenium concentration at the two sites were charted by using regression techniques for partial residuals for the entire study period (WY 1986 through WY 2008). Annual selenium load for the Gunnison River site was estimated to be 23,196 pounds for WY 1986 and 16,560 pounds for WY 2008, a 28.6 percent decrease. Lower and upper 95-percent confidence levels for WY 1986 annual load were 22,360 and 24,032 pounds. Lower and upper 95-percent confidence levels for WY 2008 annual load were 15,724 and 17,396 pounds. Estimated 50th percentile daily selenium concentrations decreased from 6.41 to 4.57 micrograms/liter from WY 1986 to WY 2008, whereas estimated 85th percentile daily selenium concentrations decreased from 7.21 to 5.13 micrograms/liter from WY 1986 to WY 2008. Annual selenium load for the Colorado River site was estimated to be 56,587 pounds for WY 1986 and 34,344 pounds for WY 2008, a 39.3 percent decrease. Lower and upper 95-percent confidence levels for WY 1986 annual load were 53,785 and 59,390 pounds. Lower and upper 95-percent confidence levels for WY 2008 annual load were 31,542 and 37,147 pounds. Estimated 50th percentile daily selenium concentrations decreased from 6.44 to 3.86 micrograms/liter from WY 1986 to WY 2008, whereas estimated 85th percentile daily selenium concentrations decreased from 7.94 to 4.72 micrograms/liter from WY 1986 to WY 2008.

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Estimated probabilities and volumes of postwildfire debris flows—A prewildfire evaluation for the Pikes Peak area, El Paso and Teller Counties, Colorado

Debris flows are fast-moving, high-density slurries of water, sediment, and debris that can have enormous destructive power. Although debris flows, triggered by intense rainfall or rapid snowmelt on steep hillsides covered with erodible material, are a common geomorphic process in some unburned areas, a wildfire can transform conditions in a watershed with no recent history of debris flows into conditions that pose a substantial hazard to residents, communities, infrastructure, aquatic habitats, and water supply. The location, extent, and severity of wildfire and the subsequent rainfall intensity and duration cannot be known in advance; however, hypothetical scenarios based on empirical debris-flow models are useful planning tools for conceptualizing potential postwildfire debris flows. A prewildfire study to determine the potential for postwildfire debris flows in the Pikes Peak area in El Paso and Teller Counties, Colorado, was initiated in 2010 by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Colorado Springs, Colorado Springs Utilities. The study was conducted to provide a relative measure of which subwatersheds might constitute the most serious potential debris-flow hazards in the event of a large-scale wildfire and subsequent rainfall.

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