Geology topics

Research about Colorado

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Colorado.

At least 271 records · Page 15Linked to original sources

USGS2020

Evidence of post-breeding prospecting in a long-distance migrant.

Organisms assess biotic and abiotic cues at multiple sites when deciding where to settle. However, due to temporal constraints on this prospecting, the suitability of available habitat may be difficult for an individual to assess when cues are most reliable, or at the time they are making settlement decisions. For migratory birds, the postbreeding season may be the optimal time to prospect and inform settlement decisions for future breeding seasons. We investigated the fall movements of flammulated owls ( Psiloscops flammeolus ) within breeding habitat after fledglings had gained independence and before adults left for migration. From 2013 to 2016, we trapped owls within a breeding population wherein all nesting owls and their young have been banded since 1981. We used stable isotopes in combination with mark–recapture data to identify local individuals and differentiate potential prospecting behavior from other seasonal movements such as migration or staging. We commonly captured owls in the fall—predominantly hatch-year owls—that were not known residents of the study area. Several of these nonresident owls were later found breeding within the study area. Stable isotope data suggested a local origin for virtually all owls captured during the fall. Our results suggest that hatch-year flammulated owls, but also some after-hatch-year owls, use the period between the breeding season and fall migration to prospect for future breeding sites. The timing of this behavior is likely driven by seasonally variable costs associated with prospecting. Determining the timing of prospecting and the specific cues that are being assessed will be important in helping predict the extent to which climate change and/or altered disturbance regimes will modify the ecology, behavior, and demographics associated with prospecting.

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USGS2020

Density dependence and adult survival drive the dynamics in two high elevation amphibian populations

Amphibian conservation has progressed from the identification of declines to mitigation, but efforts are hampered by the lack of nuanced information about the effects of environmental characteristics and stressors on mechanistic processes of population regulation. Challenges include a paucity of long-term data and scant information about the relative roles of extrinsic (e.g., weather) and intrinsic (e.g., density dependence) factors. We used a Bayesian formulation of an open population capture-recapture model and >30 years of data to examine intrinsic and extrinsic factors regulating two adult boreal chorus frogs ( Pseudacris maculata ) populations. We modelled population growth rate and apparent survival directly, assessed their temporal variability, and derived estimates of recruitment. Populations were relatively stable (geometric mean population growth rate >1) and regulated by negative density dependence (i.e., higher population sizes reduced population growth rate). In the smaller population, density dependence also acted on adult survival. In the larger population, higher population growth was associated with warmer autumns. Survival estimates ranged from 0.30–0.87, per-capita recruitment was <1 in most years, and mean seniority probability was >0.50, suggesting adult survival is more important to population growth than recruitment. Our analysis indicates density dependence is a primary driver of population dynamics for P. maculata adults.

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USGS2020

Baseflow age distributions and depth of active groundwater flow in a snow‐dominated mountain headwater basin

Deeper flows through bedrock in mountain watersheds could be important, but lack of data to characterize bedrock properties limits understanding. To address data scarcity, we combine a previously published integrated hydrologic model of a snow‐dominated, headwater basin of the Colorado River with a new method for dating baseflow age using dissolved gas tracers SF 6 , CFC‐113, N 2 , and Ar. The original flow model predicts the majority of groundwater flow through shallow alluvium (<8 m) sitting on top of less permeable bedrock. The water moves too quickly and is unable to reproduce observed SF 6 concentrations. To match gas data, bedrock permeability is increased to allow a larger fraction of deeper and older groundwater flow (median 112 m). The updated hydrologic model indicates interannual variability in baseflow age (3–12 years) is controlled by the volume of seasonal interflow and tightly coupled to snow accumulation and monsoon rain. Deeper groundwater flow remains stable (11.7 ± 0.7 years) as a function mean historical recharge to bedrock hydraulic conductivity (R/K). A sensitivity analysis suggests that increasing bedrock K effectively moves this alpine basin away from its original conceptualization of hyperlocalized groundwater flow (high R/K) with groundwater age insensitive to changes in water inputs. Instead, this basin is situated close to the precipitation threshold defining recharge controlled groundwater flow conditions (low R/K) in which groundwater age increases with small reductions in precipitation. Work stresses the need to explore alternative methods characterizing bedrock properties in mountain basins to better quantify deeper groundwater flow and predict their hydrologic response to change.

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USGS2020

Developing behavioral and evidence-based programs for wildfire risk mitigation

The actions of residents in the wildland–urban interface can influence the private and social costs of wildfire. Wildfire programs that encourage residents to take action are often delivered without evidence of effects on behavior. Research from the field of behavioral science shows that simple, often low-cost changes to program design and delivery can influence socially desirable behaviors. In this research report, we highlight how behavioral science and experimental design may advance efforts to increase wildfire risk mitigation on private property. We offer an example in which we tested changes in outreach messaging on property owners’ interest in wildfire risk information. In partnership with a regional wildfire organization, we mailed 4564 letters directing property owners to visit personalized wildfire risk webpages. By tracking visitation, we observed that 590 letter recipients (12%) sought information about their wildfire risk and response varied by community. This research–practice collaboration has three benefits: innovation in outreach, evidence of innovation through experimental design, and real impacts on interest in wildfire mitigation among property owners. Future collaborations may inform behavioral and evidence-based programs to better serve residents and the public interest as the risks from wildfires are projected to grow.

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USGS2020

Soil respiration response to rainfall modulated by plant phenology in a montane meadow, East River, Colorado, USA

Soil respiration is a primary component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. However, predicting the response of soil respiration to climate change remains a challenge due to the complex interactions between environmental drivers, especially plant phenology, temperature, and soil moisture. In this study, we use a 1‐D diffusion‐reaction model to calculate depth‐resolved CO 2 production rates from soil CO 2 concentrations and surface efflux observations in a subalpine meadow in the East River watershed, CO. Modeled rates are compared to in situ soil temperature and moisture conditions and MODIS satellite enhanced vegetation index (EVI) representing plant phenology across three hydrologically distinct growing seasons from 2016–2018. While soil respiration correlated with temperature on diel timescales ( p < 0.05), seasonal variability was dominated by soil moisture and plant phenology ( p < 0.05). We observed significant respiration increases in response to precipitation events; however, magnitude and duration were significantly higher in 2017 than 2016 despite similar wetting characteristics. Based on MODIS EVI, we suggest that the respiration response to rainfall is controlled by plant phenology, which in turn reflects the capacity of plants to respond to precipitation via increased photosynthesis and autotrophic respiration, behavior that is not captured in typical soil respiration pulse models. Projected changes in montane climate such as earlier snowmelt and prolonged fore‐summer drought may decrease soil respiration fluxes by decreasing the overlap between peak productivity and the summer monsoon. Finally, we observed significant late season CO 2 fluxes from the deep subsoil (>165 cm) that support growing evidence for the importance of subsoil processes in driving integrated respiration fluxes.

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USGS2020

Warming of alpine tundra enhances belowground production and shifts community towards resource acquisition traits

Climate warming is expected to stimulate plant growth in high‐elevation and high‐latitude ecosystems, significantly increasing aboveground net primary production (ANPP). However, the effects of simultaneous changes in temperature, snowmelt timing, and summer water availability on total net primary production (NPP)—and elucidation of both above‐ and belowground responses—remain an important area in need of further study. In particular, measures of belowground net primary productivity (BNPP) are required to understand whether ANPP changes reflect changes in allocation or are indicative of a whole plant NPP response. Further, plant functional traits provide a key way to scale from the individual plant to the community level and provide insight into drivers of NPP responses to environmental change. We used infrared heaters to warm an alpine plant community at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, and applied supplemental water to compensate for soil water loss induced by warming. We measured ANPP, BNPP, and leaf and root functional traits across treatments after 5 yr of continuous warming. Community‐level ANPP and total NPP (ANPP + BNPP) did not respond to heating or watering, but BNPP increased in response to heating. Heating decreased community‐level leaf dry matter content and increased total root length, indicating a shift in strategy from resource conservation to acquisition in response to warming. Water use efficiency (WUE) decreased with heating, suggesting alleviation of moisture constraints that may have enabled the plant community to increase productivity. Heating may have decreased WUE by melting snow earlier and creating more days early in the growing season with adequate soil moisture, but stimulated dry mass investment in roots as soils dried down later in the growing season. Overall, this study highlights how ANPP and BNPP responses to climate change can diverge, and encourages a closer examination of belowground processes, especially in alpine systems, where the majority of NPP occurs belowground.

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USGS2020

Bathymetry of Deadmans Lake, Golf Course Reservoir 9, Ice Lake, Kettle Lakes 1–3, and Non-Potable Reservoirs 1–4 at the U.S. Air Force Academy, Colorado, 2019

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Air Force Academy (USAFA), carried out bathymetric and topographic surveys to characterize the volume of Deadmans Lake, Golf Course Reservoir 9, Ice Lake, Kettle Lakes 1–3, and Non-Potable Reservoirs 1–4 at the U.S. Air Force Academy, Colorado. Bathymetric maps of each lake and reservoir are presented with figures of the elevation-volume curves. The bathymetric surveys were carried out from October 15, 2019, to December 12, 2019, using a manually operated, boat-mounted, single-beam echo sounder integrated with a Real-Time Kinematic Global Navigation Satellite Systems receiver. Topographic surveys were carried out during the same time period using Real-Time Kinematic Global Navigation Satellite System to collect elevation data at and above the water surface and up to the elevation of the dam or spillway at the time of the surveys. The topographic and bathymetric datasets were imported into Esri ArcMap 10.7.1. The combined survey points were then interpolated into digital elevation models, which were used to determine lake or reservoir volumes that correspond to water-surface elevations between the lakebed and the approximate top of the dam or spillway. This report provides an updated characterization of storage capacity and improved understanding of present (2019) water capacity in the lakes and reservoirs at the USAFA. In addition, these surveys serve as a baseline that could be compared with future surveys of the lakes and reservoirs. The differences in these and future surveys could then be used to determine sedimentation infill rates and provide estimates of the lifespan of the lakes and reservoirs.

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USGS2020

Integrating airborne remote sensing and field campaigns for ecology and Earth system science

In recent years, the availability of airborne imaging spectroscopy (hyperspectral) data has expanded dramatically. The high spatial and spectral resolution of these data uniquely enable spatially explicit ecological studies including species mapping, assessment of drought mortality and foliar trait distributions. However, we have barely begun to unlock the potential of these data to use direct mapping of vegetation characteristics to infer subsurface properties of the critical zone. To assess their utility for Earth systems research, imaging spectroscopy data acquisitions require integration with large, coincident ground‐based datasets collected by experts in ecology and environmental and Earth science. Without coordinated, well‐planned field campaigns, potential knowledge leveraged from advanced airborne data collections could be lost. Despite the growing importance of this field, documented methods to couple such a wide variety of disciplines remain sparse. We coordinated the first National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (AOP) survey performed outside of their core sites, which took place in the Upper East River watershed, Colorado. Extensive planning for sample tracking and organization allowed field and flight teams to update the ground‐based sampling strategy daily. This enabled collection of an extensive set of physical samples to support a wide range of ecological, microbiological, biogeochemical and hydrological studies. We present a framework for integrating airborne and field campaigns to obtain high‐quality data for foliar trait prediction and document an archive of coincident physical samples collected to support a systems approach to ecological research in the critical zone. This detailed methodological account provides an example of how a multi‐disciplinary and multi‐institutional team can coordinate to maximize knowledge gained from an airborne survey, an approach that could be extended to other studies. The coordination of imaging spectroscopy surveys with appropriately timed and extensive field surveys, along with high‐quality processing of these data, presents a unique opportunity to reveal new insights into the structure and dynamics of the critical zone. To our knowledge, this level of co‐aligned sampling has never been undertaken in tandem with AOP surveys and subsequent studies utilizing this archive will shed considerable light on the breadth of applications for which imaging spectroscopy data can be leveraged.

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USGS2020

The role of warm, dry summers and variation in snowpack on phytoplankton dynamics in high-elevation lakes

Abstract Climate change is altering biogeochemical, metabolic, and ecological functions in lakes across the globe. Historically, mountain lakes in temperate regions have been unproductive due to brief ice-free seasons, a snowmelt-driven hydrograph, cold temperatures, and steep topography with low vegetation and soil cover. We tested the relative importance of winter and summer weather, watershed characteristics, and water chemistry as drivers of phytoplankton dynamics. Using boosted regression tree models for 28 mountain lakes in Colorado we examined regional, intra-seasonal, and inter-annual drivers of variability in chlorophyll a as a proxy for lake phytoplankton. Phytoplankton biomass was inversely related to the maximum snow water equivalent (SWE) of the previous winter, as others have found. However, even in years with average SWE, summer precipitation extremes and warming enhanced phytoplankton biomass. Peak seasonal phytoplankton biomass coincided with the warmest water temperatures and lowest nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratios. While links between snowpack, lake temperature, nutrients, and organic matter dynamics are increasingly recognized as critical drivers of change in high elevation lakes, our results highlight the additional influence of summer conditions on lake productivity in response to ongoing changes in climate. Continued changes in the timing, type, and magnitude of precipitation in combination with other global change drivers (e.g., nutrient deposition) will affect production in mountain lakes, potentially shifting these historically oligotrophic lakes toward new ecosystem states. Ultimately, a deeper understanding of these drivers and pattern at multiple scales will allow us to better anticipate ecological consequences of global change.

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USGS2020

Assessment of dissolved-selenium concentrations and loads in the Lower Gunnison River Basin, Colorado, as part of the Selenium Management Program, 2011–17

The Gunnison Basin Selenium Management Program implemented a water-quality monitoring network in 2011 to measure concentrations of selenium in the lower Gunnison River Basin in Colorado. Selenium is a trace element that bioaccumulates in aquatic food chains. Selenium is essential for life, but elevated amounts can cause reproductive failure, deformities, and other harmful effects. The primary goal of the Selenium Management Program is to meet the State of Colorado water-quality standard of 4.6 micrograms per liter (µg/L) for dissolved selenium at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging station number 09152500—Gunnison River near Grand Junction, Colorado—herein referred to as “Whitewater.” The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, has completed a review of dissolved-selenium data collected from the Selenium Management Program network during Water Year (WY) 2017 (October 1, 2016 through September 30, 2017) to further the understanding of the status and trends of selenium in the basin. This report presents the percentile values for selenium because regulatory agencies in Colorado make decisions based on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Water Act section 303(d), which uses percentile values for concentrations. Also presented are dissolved-selenium loads at 14 sites in the lower Gunnison River Basin for WYs 2011–17. Annual dissolved-selenium loads were calculated for six sites with continuous U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations. These six sites are referred to as “core” sites in this report. The remaining sites, which do not have streamflow-gaging stations, are referred to as “ancillary” sites in this report. During WY 2017, the loads calculated at the six core sites ranged from 306 pounds (lb) at Uncompahgre River at Colona to 12,600 lb at Whitewater, respectively. By using discrete water-quality samples and the associated discharge measurements, instantaneous loads were calculated for 14 sites in WYs 2011–17 where discrete water-quality sampling took place. Median instantaneous loads ranged from 0.52 pounds per day (lb/d) at Uncompahgre River at Colona to 35.7 lb/d at Whitewater. Mean instantaneous loads ranged from 0.63 lb/d at Cummings Gulch at mouth to 35.5 lb/d at Whitewater. Most tributary sites in the basin had a median instantaneous dissolved-selenium load of less than 20.0 lb/d. In general, dissolved-selenium loads at Gunnison River main-stem sites showed an increase from upstream to downstream. The State of Colorado’s water-quality standard for dissolved selenium of 4.6 µg/L was compared to the 85th percentiles for dissolved selenium at selected sites. Annual 85th percentiles for dissolved selenium were calculated by using estimated dissolved-selenium concentrations from linear regression models for the six core sites with U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations. The 85th-percentile concentrations for WY 2017 based on this method ranged from 0.68 µg/L at Uncompahgre River at Colona to 140 µg/L at Loutzenhizer Arroyo at North River Road. The 85th percentiles for concentrations of dissolved selenium also were calculated from water-quality samples collected during WY 2017 from sites with sufficient data. The annual 85th-percentile concentrations based on the discrete samples ranged from 0.75 µg/L at Uncompahgre River at Colona to 106 µg/L at Loutzenhizer Arroyo at North River Road. An analysis was completed for Whitewater to determine if an upward or downward trend exists for dissolved-selenium loads during two time periods. The first time period included all data at Whitewater, whereas the second time period focused on more recent data. The trend analysis indicates a decrease from 22,200 to 12,600 lb, which is a 43.1 percent (9,600 lb) reduction during the time period WY 1986 through WY 2017. The trend analysis for the annual dissolved-selenium load for WY 1995 through WY 2017 indicates a decrease of 6,600 lb per year, or 35.5 percent. An evaluation of laboratory bias was completed for selenium data which was used in the trend analysis. Findings indicated a potential positive bias of approximately 12 percent may exist in the data from October 2005 through August 2015.

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USGS2020

Groundwater levels in the Denver Basin bedrock aquifers of Douglas County, Colorado, 2011–19

Municipal and domestic water users in Douglas County, Colorado, rely on groundwater from the bedrock aquifers in the Denver Basin aquifer system as part of their water supply. The four principal Denver Basin bedrock aquifers are, from shallowest to deepest, the Dawson aquifer (divided administratively into “upper” and “lower” Dawson aquifers in Douglas County), the Denver aquifer, the Arapahoe aquifer, and the Laramie-Fox Hills aquifer. Increased groundwater pumping in response to rapid population growth and development has led to declining groundwater levels in Douglas County, where groundwater is a primary water source for densely populated and rural communities. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Rural Water Authority of Douglas County, began a study in 2011 to assess the groundwater resources of the Denver Basin bedrock aquifers within the county. The primary purpose of this report is to present a summary of groundwater levels measured during the study period (2011–19) and present results from statistical analyses of changes in groundwater-level elevations, reported above the land-surface datum, North American Vertical Datum of 1988, through time. During the study period, January 2011 through June 2019, discrete groundwater levels were routinely measured at 36 wells producing from Denver Basin bedrock aquifers within Douglas County. Of the 36 wells, 15 are instrumented with pressure transducers that record groundwater-level measurements at hourly intervals, and these data were temporally aggregated into time-series records. During 2011, wells were added to the monitoring network in phases, so that the start dates of the well records are noncontemporaneous. To keep temporal analysis among wells consistent, the periods of record used in statistical analyses were from February 2012 through February 2019 for the discrete data and from January 2012 through June 2019 for the time-series data. The upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, and Arapahoe aquifers had some wells with rises in calculated groundwater-level elevations, but most wells showed declines on the basis of statistically significant trends and the relative differences in static groundwater-level elevations between the February 2012 and February 2019 measurements. Neither of the two wells in the Laramie-Fox Hills aquifer showed significant trends in groundwater-level elevations, and these wells had few static discrete measurements, precluding a comparison between 2012 and 2019 static groundwater-level elevations. Of the 13 wells in the upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, and Arapahoe aquifers with significant trends in discrete groundwater-level elevation measurements, the records of 12 wells demonstrated negative trends during the study period. The upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, and Arapahoe aquifers had median significant trends of −0.23, −0.31, −0.92, and −2.26 feet per year, respectively. Although the Arapahoe aquifer had the greatest negative median trend, this median only represents one well with significant trends. Otherwise, the Denver aquifer had the next greatest negative trend, with a median trend of −0.92 foot per year. Significant trends in time-series groundwater-level elevations agreed with significant trends in discrete groundwater-level elevations; for all wells with statistically significant trends in discrete and in time-series groundwater-level elevation data, trend estimates from the two records were within 0.1 foot per year of each other. Potentiometric-surface maps of the upper Dawson, lower Dawson, and Denver aquifers, created using discrete static groundwater levels measured in February 2019, show that groundwater flow direction for the upper Dawson, lower Dawson, and Denver aquifers is generally from south to north. Results of this study could guide future groundwater monitoring in the county and aid in long-term planning of water resources.

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USGS2020

Incipient bed-movement and flood-frequency analysis using hydrophones to estimate flushing flows on the upper Colorado River, Colorado, 2019

In 2019, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Colorado River Wild and Scenic Stakeholder Group, studied the magnitude and recurrence interval of streamflow (discharge) needed to initiate bed movement of gravel-sized and finer sediment in a segment of the Colorado River in Colorado to better understand sediment movement and its relation to flow regimes of the river. The study area extended from the confluence of the Blue and Colorado Rivers near Kremmling, Colorado, downstream to the confluence of the Eagle and Colorado Rivers near Dotsero, Colo. Bed movement occurred more frequently and at lower streamflows from State Bridge to Catamount Bridge compared to the study area upstream from State Bridge. As a result, the flushing flow was characterized in the study area using two definitions: the “upstream flushing flow” for locations above State Bridge and the “downstream flushing flow” for locations below State Bridge. Acoustic data from stationary hydrophones continuously deployed in the spring and summer of 2019 and longitudinal hydrophone acoustic profiles manually collected in summer 2019 were used to identify the streamflow needed for incipient gravel-bed movement and establish flushing flows defined for this study. The upstream flushing flow was defined as 3,000 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) at streamgage 09058000 Colorado River near Kremmling, Colo. (the Kremmling streamgage) based on the underwater acoustic data from the downstream location at the Radium stationary site (2,950 ft 3 /s at the Kremmling streamgage which was rounded to 3,000 ft 3 /s). The downstream flushing flow was defined as 2,400 ft 3 /s at the Kremmling streamgage or 3,100 ft 3 /s at streamgage 09060799 Colorado River at Catamount Bridge, Colo. (the Catamount Bridge streamgage) based on the more conservative streamflow associated with the flushing flow defined using underwater acoustic data from the downstream location at the above Catamount Bridge stationary site (2,310 ft 3 /s at the Kremmling streamgage which was rounded to 2,400 ft 3 /s and 3,040 ft 3 /s at the Catamount Bridge streamgage which was rounded to 3,100 ft 3 /s). The annual series of peak-streamflow data at the Kremmling streamgage were used to estimate annual exceedance probability (AEP) streamflows to compare to the flushing flow. Results from the Denver Water Platte and Colorado Simulation Model were used to generate daily peak-streamflows for a future conditions scenario provided for this report. The upstream flushing flow of approximately 3,000 ft 3 /s at the Kremmling streamgage has an AEP near 0.50 (2-year return period) depending on the period of historical record and an AEP near 0.43 (2.33-year return period) for the future period. The downstream flushing flow of approximately 2,400 ft 3 /s at the Kremmling streamgage has an AEP near 0.67 (1.5-year return period) depending on the period of historical record and an AEP near 0.67 (1.5-year return period) for the future period.

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USGS2020

The impact of sediment supply on the initiation and magnitude of runoff-generated debris flows

Rainfall intensity‐duration (ID) thresholds are commonly used to assess the potential for runoff‐generated debris flows, but the sensitivity of these thresholds to sediment supply, which can change rapidly with time, is relatively unexplored. Furthermore, debris flows often self‐organize into distinct surges, but the factors controlling the magnitude and frequency of these surges, including sediment supply and grain size, are poorly constrained. We use a combination of numerical modeling and debris flow monitoring data from Chalk Cliffs, Colorado, USA, to explore how sediment supply influences rainfall ID thresholds for debris flows and surge properties. Results suggest that rainfall ID thresholds only become sensitive to sediment supply below a sediment thickness threshold. Surge magnitude is a nonmonotonic function of sediment supply (i.e., channel bed sediment thickness and grain size) with the largest surges tending to form at intermediate values of sediment availability with intermediate grain sizes.

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USGS2020

Colonisation of the alpine tundra by trees: Alpine neighbours assist late-seral but not early-seral conifer seedlings

Background Climate change is projected to alter the elevation and latitude of treeline globally. Seed germination and seedling survival are critical controls on treeline expansion. Neighbouring alpine plants, either through competition for resources or through altered microclimate, also affect seedlings emerging in the alpine zone. With warming, alpine plant species may interact with each other more or less strongly. Aims To determine whether establishing tree seedlings and an alpine herb are similarly sensitive to alpine plant neighbours under ambient and altered climate. Methods We imposed active heating, watering, and removed all plants adjacent to emerging conifer seedlings and an alpine herb. Results Picea engelmannii seedlings showed lower survival compared with Pinus flexilis 3 weeks following neighbour removal, and after 1 year only survived in watered plots. Pinus seedlings responded to neighbour removal by lowering the quantum yield of photosynthesis (ϕ PSII ). Contrary to expectations from the stress gradient hypothesis, survival was reduced without neighbours near the low-elevation range limit of Chionophila jamesii . Conclusions Pinus flexilis has higher expansion potential into the alpine, while Picea engelmannii requires moist conditions that could be facilitated by neighbours to expand its range. This implies likely range expansion by P. flexilis with consequences for alpine plant diversity and ecosystem function.

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USGS2020

Changes in climate and land cover affect seasonal streamflow forecasts in the Rio Grande headwaters

Seasonal streamflow forecast bias, changes in climate, snowpack, and land cover, and the effects of these changes on relations between basin‐wide snowpack, SNOw TELemetry (SNOTEL) station snowpack, and seasonal streamflow were evaluated in the headwaters of the Rio Grande, Colorado. Results indicate that shifts in the seasonality of precipitation and changing climatology are consistent with periods of overprediction and underprediction in streamflow forecasts. Multiple linear regression of SNOTEL data, postcedent precipitation, and land‐cover changes explained 2%–18% more variability in streamflow prediction than using SNOTEL station data alone. Simulated basin‐wide snowpack from a physically based model had significant negative trends in snow water equivalent (−4.33 mm/yr) and snow‐covered area (−0.05%/yr) during the melt period April–June. Simulated streamflow from a precipitation‐runoff model increased an average 5% when the effects of bark beetle‐induced tree mortality were compared to a baseline simulation with static vegetation. The effects of a 2013 wildfire increased simulated seasonal streamflow an average 35% for 1–4 years postfire. The combined effects of climate and land‐cover changes on snowpack‐streamflow relations highlight the difficulty in seasonal streamflow forecasting, which has important implications for water‐resource management.

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USGS2020

Four-dimensional surface motions of the Slumgullion landslide and quantification of hydrometeorological forcing

Landslides modify the natural landscape and cause fatalities and property damage worldwide. Quantifying landslide dynamics is challenging due to the stochastic nature of the environment. With its large area of ~1 km 2 and perennial motions at ~10–20 mm per day, the Slumgullion landslide in Colorado, USA, represents an ideal natural laboratory to better understand landslide behavior. Here, we use hybrid remote sensing data and methods to recover the four-dimensional surface motions during 2011–2018. We refine the boundaries of an area of ~0.35 km 2 below the crest of the prehistoric landslide. We construct a mechanical framework to quantify the rheology, subsurface channel geometry, mass flow rate, and spatiotemporally dependent pore-water pressure feedback through a joint analysis of displacement and hydrometeorological measurements from ground, air and space. Our study demonstrates the importance of remotely characterizing often inaccessible, dangerous slopes to better understand landslides and other quasi-static mass fluxes in natural and industrial environments, which will ultimately help reduce associated hazards.

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USGS2020

Nontuberculous mycobacterial disease and molybdenum in Colorado watersheds

Nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) are environmental bacteria that may cause chronic lung disease. Environmental factors that favor NTM growth likely increase the risk of NTM exposure within specific environments. We aimed to identify water-quality constituents (Al, As, Cd, Ca, Cu, Fe, Pb, Mg, Mn, Mo, Ni, K, Se, Na, Zn, and pH) associated with NTM disease across Colorado watersheds. We conducted a geospatial, ecological study, associating data from patients with NTM disease treated at National Jewish Health and water-quality data from the Water Quality Portal. Water-quality constituents associated with disease risk were identified using generalized linear models with Poisson-distributed discrete responses. We observed a highly robust association between molybdenum (Mo) in the source water and disease risk. For every 1- unit increase in the log concentration of molybdenum in the source water, disease risk increased by 17.0%. We also observed a statistically significant association between calcium (Ca) in the source water and disease risk. The risk of NTM varied by watershed and was associated with watershed-specific water-quality constituents. These findings may inform mitigation strategies to decrease the overall risk of exposure.

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USGS2020

Factors influencing Cinnamon Teal nest attendance patterns

Patterns of nest attendance in birds result from complex behaviours and influence the success of reproductive events. Incubation behaviours vary based on individual body condition, energy requirements and environmental factors. We assessed nest attendance patterns in Cinnamon Teal Spatula cyanoptera breeding in the San Luis Valley of Colorado in 2016–2017 using trail and video cameras to observe behaviours throughout incubation. We evaluated the effect of temporal, life-history and environmental covariates on the frequency and duration of incubation recesses as well as the incubation constancy. There was considerable model uncertainty among the models used to evaluate recess frequency. Recess duration varied according to the interaction between nest age and a quadratic effect of time of day, with hens on older nests taking longer recesses in the afternoon and hens on nests earlier in incubation taking longer recesses in the morning and evening. Incubation constancy decreased with higher ambient temperatures in the study area. This study provides evidence that Cinnamon Teal modify their behaviour during incubation according to the age of the nest and the time of day. These results improve our knowledge of Cinnamon Teal breeding ecology and shed light on the behaviours that fast-lived species may use to cope with environmental factors during nesting.

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