Geology topics

Research about California

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including California.

At least 901 records · Page 50Linked to original sources

USGS2021

Forest resistance to extended drought enhanced by prescribed fire in low elevation forests of the Sierra Nevada

Prescribed fire reduces fire hazards by removing dead and live fuels (small trees and shrubs). Reductions in forest density following prescribed fire treatments (often in concert with mechanical treatments) may also lessen competition so that residual trees might be more likely to survive when confronted with additional stressors, such as drought. The current evidence for these effects is mixed and additional study is needed. Previous work found increased tree survivorship in low elevation forests with a recent history of fire during the early years of an intense drought (2012 to 2014) in national parks in the southern Sierra Nevada. We extend these observations through additional years of intense drought and continuing elevated tree mortality through 2017 at Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks. Relative to unburned sites, we found that burned sites had lower stem density and had lower proportions of recently dead trees (for stems ≤47.5 cm dbh) that presumably died during the drought. Differences in recent tree mortality among burned and unburned sites held for both fir (white fir and red fir) and pine (sugar pine and ponderosa pine) species. Unlike earlier results, models of individual tree mortality probability supported an interaction between plot burn status and tree size, suggesting the effect of prescribed fire was limited to small trees. We consider differences with other recent results and discuss potential management implications including trade-offs between large tree mortality following prescribed fire and increased drought resistance.

California↗

USGS2021

Continuous water-quality and suspended-sediment transport monitoring in the San Francisco Bay, California, water years 2018–19

Water-Quality in San Francisco Bay The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitors water quality and suspended-sediment transport in the San Francisco Bay (Bay) as part of a multi-agency effort to address estuary management, water supply, and ecological concerns. The San Francisco Bay area is home to millions of people, and the Bay teems with marine and terrestrial flora and fauna. Freshwater mixes with saltwater in the Bay and is subject to riverine influences (floods, droughts, managed reservoir releases, and freshwater diversions) and marine influences (tides, waves, and effects of saltwater). To understand this environment, the USGS, along with its cooperators (see “Acknowledgments” section), has been monitoring the Bay’s waters continuously since 1988.

California↗

USGS2021

Assessment of multiple ecosystem metabolism methods in an estuary

Ecosystem metabolism is a key ecological attribute and easy to describe, but quantifying metabolism in estuaries is challenging. Properly scaling measurements through time and space requires consideration of hydrodynamics and mixing water from heterogeneous sources, making any estimation uncertain. Here, we compared three methods for modeling ecosystem metabolism in a portion of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Metabolism estimates based on laboratory incubations, continuous in situ buoys, and an oxygen isotope approach all indicated the system was net heterotrophic, and calculated rates were comparable in magnitude when averaged over the 2-month study. Daily metabolic rates based on in situ buoys were the most variable, likely due to horizontal and vertical advection and poor portrayal of the dissolved oxygen budget. After temporally averaging in situ buoy estimates or smoothing the dissolved oxygen time series for tidal effects, rates were more comparable to the other methods, which may be necessary to account for tidal advection and unbalanced contributions from subhabitats within the metabolic footprint. Incubation-based rates represent the finest temporal and spatial scale and only account for pelagic processes, which may explain why incubation-based rates were lower than the other two methods. The oxygen isotope method provided temporally and spatially integrated rates that were bracketed by the other two methods and may be a valuable tool in systems matching the model requirements. Because uncertainty arises in each method from a number of assumptions and scaling calculations, the resolution of metabolic rates in estuaries is likely coarser and more variable than in other aquatic ecosystems.

California↗

USGS2021

Storage capacity and sedimentation characteristics of Loch Lomond Reservoir, California, 2019

In May of 2019, Loch Lomond Reservoir was surveyed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the city of Santa Cruz to assess the current storage capacity and sedimentation rates in the reservoir. Survey methods combined sonar soundings to measure bathymetry and lidar scans with GPS data to measure near-shore topography and sediment bed samples to understand reservoir bed-material size. The survey data produced a bare-earth digital elevation model (DEM) of the reservoir at a resolution of 1 square meter or better to elevations at or above the reservoir spillway elevation, providing the coverage needed to estimate storage capacity. Additionally, the USGS compared the current survey to storage estimates from historical surveys—particularly the most recent survey in 2009—to evaluate storage capacity trends. Lastly, a hindcast estimate of scaled sediment yield using sediment yields from the San Lorenzo River (USGS station 11160500)—where the San Lorenzo River watershed encompasses the Loch Lomond Reservoir watershed—were used to compare indirect estimates of storage loss to direct storage loss. The 2019 survey resulted in a measured storage capacity of 8,770±50 acre-feet. The differences in storage between 2009 and 2019 varied substantially by depth. In shallow areas with depths less than 30 ft (at full reservoir), such as the very upstream end of the reservoir, storage loss (sediment deposition) dominated with a loss of about 68 acre-feet from 2009 to 2019. In areas deeper than 30 ft, persistent small storage gains over a wide range of depths totaled 82 acre-feet from 2009 to 2019. Storage loss estimates derived from estimated watershed sediment yields and reservoir characteristics were similar to storage losses computed from past surveys. This hindcasting produced an estimate of about 500 acre-feet of total storage loss for the history of the reservoir, or an average of about 8–9 acre-feet/year during the 60-year period. For the period 2009–2019, the hindcast produced an estimated total storage loss of 42 acre-feet, which is broadly consistent with the 68 acre-feet of storage loss computed for shallow areas based on the repeat surveys.

California↗

USGS2021

Cohesive sediment modeling in a shallow estuary: Model and environmental implications of sediment parameter variation

Numerical models of sediment transport in estuarine systems rely on parameter values that are often poorly constrained and can vary on timescales relevant to model processes. The selection of parameter values can affect the accuracy of model predictions, while environmental variation of these parameters can impact the temporal and spatial ranges of sediment fluxes, erosion, and deposition in the real world. We implemented a numerical model of San Pablo Bay, an embayment within San Francisco Bay, California, for November–December 2014, and compared model outputs to observations of water level, velocity, wave parameters, salinity, and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in the shallow regions. Idealized model runs show that wind timing relative to the phase of the tides is the strongest control on sediment fluxes and bed erosion. We varied sediment erodibility in the outflow of the Petaluma River; while this causes erosion and deposition to vary strongly through the shallows system, total export from the shallows does not change. Model runs with realistic winds show that wind likely resuspends faster settling particles or allows for more particle flocculation; particle settling velocity controls system-wide sediment accumulation. At the margins of the system, the magnitude of SSC is closely tied to wind direction when winds occur during flood tide, but sediment deposition is less connected: Both bed evolution and SSC need to be considered in the prediction of marsh fate. Spatial patterns of light attenuation due to SSC is strongly tied to assumed settling velocity.

California↗

USGS2021

Improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3‐ETAS)

We describe recent improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3‐ETAS), which continues to represent our most advanced and complete earthquake forecast in terms of relaxing segmentation assumptions and representing multifault ruptures, elastic‐rebound effects, and spatiotemporal clustering (the latter to represent aftershocks and otherwise triggered events). The two main improvements include adding aleatory variability in aftershock productivity and the option to represent off‐fault events with finite‐rupture surfaces. We also summarize the studies that led to these modifications, and reflect on how past and future uses of the model can improve our understanding of earthquake processes and the hazards and risks they pose.

California↗

USGS2021

If you give a clam an estuary: The story of potamocorbula

When you look at San Francisco Bay, what animals do you see? You may see lots of fish swimming around and birds flying above. What you DON’T see is Potamocorbula, a little clam that has had a big impact. Many years ago, ships accidentally brought Potamocorbula into the Bay. Pretty soon, Potamocorbula spread out all over in large numbers! Clams pump water over their gills and eat small particles of food, like phytoplankton, that pass through with the water. Potamocorbula can pump water much faster than other clams that live in the Bay, and they can eat more than their share of phytoplankton. Sometimes Potamocorbula eats phytoplankton faster than phytoplankton can grow! What problems does that cause for other animals, like birds and fish, that also need phytoplankton? Does Potamocorbula’s invasion only have negative impacts? In this article, we dive to the bottom of the Bay to find some answers. Book series publishing the chapter: https://kids.frontiersin.org/collection/13528/where-the-river-meets-the-ocean-stories-from-san-francisco-estuary

California↗

USGS2021

The potential of satellite remote sensing time series to uncover wetland phenology under unique challenges of tidal setting

While growth history of vegetation within upland systems is well studied, plant phenology within coastal tidal systems is less understood. Landscape-scale, satellite-derived indicators of plant greenness may not adequately represent seasonality of vegetation biomass and productivity within tidal wetlands due to limitations of cloud cover, satellite temporal frequency and attenu-ation of plant signals by tidal flooding. However, understanding plant phenology is necessary to gain insight into aboveground biomass, photosynthetic activity, and carbon sequestration. In this study we use a modeling approach to estimate plant greenness throughout a year in tidal wet-lands located within the San Francisco Bay Area, USA. We used variables such as EVI history, temperature, and elevation to predict plant greenness on a 14-day timestep. We found this ap-proach accurately estimated plant greenness, with larger error observed within more dynamic restored wetlands, particularly at early post-restoration stages. We also found modeled EVI can be used as an input variable into greenhouse gas models, allowing for an estimate of carbon se-questration and gross primary production. Our strategy can be further developed in future re-search by assessing restoration and management effects on wetland phenological dynamics and through incorporating the entire Sentinel-2 time-series once it becomes available within Google Earth Engine.

California↗

USGS2021

Detrital signals of coastal erosion and fluvial sediment supply during glacio-eustatic sea-level rise, Southern California, USA

Coastal erosion, including sea-cliff retreat, represents both an important component of some sediment budgets and a significant threat to coastal communities in the face of rising sea level. Despite the importance of predicting future rates of coastal erosion, few prehistoric constraints exist on the relative importance of sediment supplied by coastal erosion versus rivers with respect to past sea-level change. We used detrital zircon U-Pb geochronology as a provenance tracer of river and deep-sea fan deposits from the Southern California Borderland (United States) to estimate relative sediment contributions from rivers and coastal erosion from late Pleistocene to present. Mixture modeling of submarine canyon and fan samples indicates that detrital zircon was dominantly (55%–86%) supplied from coastal erosion during latest Pleistocene (ca. 13 ka) sea-level rise, with lesser contributions from rivers, on the basis of unique U-Pb age modes relative to local Peninsular Ranges bedrock sources. However, sediment that was deposited when sea level was stable at its highest and lowest points since the Last Glacial Maximum was dominantly supplied by rivers, suggesting decreased coastal erosion during periods of sea-level stability. We find that relative sediment supply from coastal erosion is strongly dependent on climate state, corroborating predictions of enhanced coastal erosion during future sea-level rise.

California↗

USGS2021

Critical aquifer overdraft accelerates degradation of groundwater quality in California’s Central Valley during drought

Drought-induced pumpage has precipitated dramatic groundwater-level declines in California’s Central Valley over the past 30 years, but the impacts of aquifer overdraft on water quality are poorly understood. This study coupled over 160,000 measurements of nitrate from ∼6,000 public-supply wells with a 30-year reconstruction of groundwater levels throughout the Central Valley to evaluate dynamic relations between aquifer exploitation and resource quality. We find that long-term rates of groundwater-level decline and water-quality degradation in critically overdrafted basins accelerate by respective factors of 2–3 and 3–5 during drought, followed by brief reversals during wetter periods. Episodic water-quality degradation can occur during drought where increased pumpage draws shallow, contaminated groundwater down to depth zones tapped by long-screened production wells. These data show, for the first time, a direct linkage between climate-mediated aquifer pumpage and groundwater quality on a regional scale.

California↗

USGS2021

Precipitation-runoff processes in the Merced River Basin, Central California, with prospects for streamflow predictability, water years 1952–2013

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), has constructed a new spatially detailed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model for the Merced River Basin, California, which is a tributary of the San Joaquin River in California. Operated through an Object User Interface (OUI) with Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and daily climate distribution preprocessing functionality, the model is calibrated primarily to simulate (and eventually, forecast) year-to-year variations of inflows to Lake McClure during the critical April–July snowmelt season. The model is intended to become part of a suite of methods used by DWR for estimating daily streamflow from the Merced River Basin, especially during the snowmelt season. This study describes the results of the application of an analysis tool that simulates responses to climate and land-use variations at a higher spatial resolution than previously available to DWR. A geographic information system was used to delineate the model domain, that is, areas draining to a single outlet at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 11270900, Merced River below Merced Falls Dam, near Snell, CA (also known as California Data Exchange Center station MRC), and subdrainage areas, including four draining to internal gages used as calibration targets. Using this delineation, three contiguous subbasins were recognized and, along with the model domain and nested calibration targets, are the simulation units evaluated in this report. An auto-calibration tool, LUCA (Let Us CAlibrate), was used for each calibration node, from headwaters to basin outlet, and then parameters were manually adjusted to complete the calibration. The main objective was to match April–July snowmelt seasonal discharge values of simulated streamflow to observed (measured or reconstructed) discharge values. Calibration or validation periods used site-specific streamflows—mostly from October 1, 1988, through September 30, 2013—but differed according to the period-of-record available for the measurements collected at internal gages or reconstructed flows for the single outlet. The accuracy of the Merced PRMS streamflow simulations varied seasonally, as compared to observed values. Based on statistical results, the Merced PRMS model satisfactorily simulated snowmelt seasonal streamflows. April–July calibrations for all areas had small negative bias (not greater than 7 percent) and low relative error (less than 8 percent). Less satisfactory performance for other seasons was attributed to several factors: (1) high uncertainty in low or zero flows in summer and fall, (2) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and anthropogenic water use, (3) unavailability and (or) inaccuracy of observed (measured) meteorological input data, and (4) uncertainty in reconstructed streamflow data. With some additional refinement, the Merced PRMS model may be used for forecasting seasonal and longer-term streamflow variations; evaluating forecasted and past climate and land cover changes; providing water-resource managers with a consistent and documented method for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites within the basin; and aiding environmental studies, hydraulic design, water management, and water-quality projects in the Merced River Basin.

California↗

USGS2021

Diffuse deformation and surface faulting distribution from sub-metric image correlation along the 2019 Ridgecrest ruptures (California, USA)

The 2019 M w "> M w 6.4 and 7.1 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence (July 2019) ruptured consecutively a system of high‐angle strike‐slip cross faults (northeast‐ and northwest‐trending) within 34 hr. The complex rupture mechanism was illuminated by seismological and geodetic data, bringing forward the issue of the interdependency of the two fault systems both at depth and at the surface, and of its effect on the final surface displacement pattern. Here, we use high‐resolution (WorldView and Pleiades) optical satellite image correlation to measure the near‐fault horizontal and vertical surface displacement fields at 0.5 m ground resolution for the two earthquakes. We point out significant differences with previous geodetic‐ and geologic‐based measurements, and document the essential role of distributed faulting and diffuse deformation in producing the observed surface displacement patterns. We derive strain fields from the horizontal displacement maps, and highlight the predominant role of rotation and shear strain in the surface rupture process. We discuss the segmentation of the rupture based on the fault geometry and along‐strike slip variations. We also image several northeast‐trending faults with similar orientation to the deeply embedded shear fabric identified in aftershock studies, and show that these cross faults are present all along the rupture, including at a scale <100 m. Finally, we compare our results to kinematic slip inversions, and show that the surface diffuse deformation is primarily associated with areas of shallow slip deficit; however, this diffuse deformation cannot be explained using elastic modeling. We conclude that inelastic processes play an important role in contributing to the total surface deformation associated with the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence.

California↗

USGS2021

Large California wildfires: 2020 fires in historical context

Background California in the year 2020 experienced a record breaking number of large fires. Here, we place this and other recent years in a historical context by examining records of large fire events in the state back to 1860. Since drought is commonly associated with large fire events, we investigated the relationship of large fire events to droughts over this 160 years period. Results This study shows that extreme fire events such as seen in 2020 are not unknown historically, and what stands out as distinctly new is the increased number of large fires (defined here as > 10,000 ha) in the last couple years, most prominently in 2020. Nevertheless, there have been other periods with even greater numbers of large fires, e.g., 1929 had the second greatest number of large fires. In fact, the 1920’s decade stands out as one with many large fires. Conclusions In the last decade, there have been several years with exceptionally large fires. Earlier records show fires of similar size in the nineteenth and early twentieth century. Lengthy droughts, as measured by the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), were associated with the peaks in large fires in both the 1920s and the early twenty-first century.

California↗

USGS2021

Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change

Range shifts of infectious plant disease are expected under climate change. As plant diseases move, emergent abiotic-biotic interactions are predicted to modify their distributions, leading to unexpected changes in disease risk. Evidence of these complex range shifts due to climate change, however, remains largely speculative. Here, we combine a long-term study of the infectious tree disease, white pine blister rust, with a six-year field assessment of drought-disease interactions in the southern Sierra Nevada. We find that climate change between 1996 and 2016 moved the climate optimum of the disease into higher elevations. The nonlinear climate change-disease relationship contributed to an estimated 5.5 (4.4–6.6) percentage points (p.p.) decline in disease prevalence in arid regions and an estimated 6.8 (5.8–7.9) p.p. increase in colder regions. Though climate change likely expanded the suitable area for blister rust by 777.9 (1.0–1392.9) km 2 into previously inhospitable regions, the combination of host-pathogen and drought-disease interactions contributed to a substantial decrease (32.79%) in mean disease prevalence between surveys. Specifically, declining alternate host abundance suppressed infection probabilities at high elevations, even as climatic conditions became more suitable. Further, drought-disease interactions varied in strength and direction across an aridity gradient—likely decreasing infection risk at low elevations while simultaneously increasing infection risk at high elevations. These results highlight the critical role of aridity in modifying host-pathogen-drought interactions. Variation in aridity across topographic gradients can strongly mediate plant disease range shifts in response to climate change.

California↗

USGS2021

Distribution and abundance of Southwestern Willow Flycatchers (Empidonax traillii extimus) on the upper San Luis Rey River, San Diego County, California—2020 data summary

We surveyed for Southwestern Willow Flycatchers ( Empidonax traillii extimus ; flycatcher) along the upper San Luis Rey River, near Lake Henshaw, in Santa Ysabel, California, in 2020. Surveys were completed at four locations: three downstream from Lake Henshaw, where nest monitoring occurred from 2015 to 2019 (Rey River Ranch [RRR], Cleveland National Forest [CNF], Vista Irrigation District [VID]), and one at VID Lake Henshaw (VLH) that was previously surveyed in 2018 and 2019. There were 62 territorial flycatchers detected at 3 locations (RRR, CNF, VLH); no flycatchers were detected at VID. Within the former nest monitoring study area, 11 flycatchers, including 5 males and 6 females, were detected at RRR and CNF. In total, seven territories were established, consisting of six pairs (two polygynous groups consisting of two males each pairing with two different females) and one male of undetermined breeding status. Upstream from the former nest monitoring study area at VLH, we detected 51 flycatchers, including 24 males and 27 females. There were 28 territories established, containing 27 pairs (23 monogamous pairings and 4 confirmed polygynous pairings consisting of 1 male and 2 females) and 1 male of undetermined breeding status. Brown-headed cowbirds ( Molothrus ater ; cowbird) were detected at all four survey locations. Flycatchers used four different habitat types in the survey area: (1) mixed willow riparian, (2) willow-oak, (3) willow-ash, and (4) willow-sycamore. Eighty percent of the flycatchers were detected in habitat characterized as mixed willow riparian, and 83 percent of the flycatchers were detected in habitat with greater than 50-percent native plant cover. Exotic vegetation was not prevalent in the survey area. There were 17 flycatcher nests incidentally located during surveys: 2 were successful, 3 were seen with nestlings on the last visit, 10 failed, and the outcome of the remaining 2 nests was unknown. Five of these nests were parasitized by cowbirds. There were 10 juveniles detected during surveys: 2 at RRR and 8 at VLH. Of the 17 banded flycatchers detected during surveys, 8 were resighted and confirmed to be adults that held territories in previous years. Seven flycatchers with a single dark blue federal band, indicating that they were banded as nestlings in the former nest monitoring study area downstream from Lake Henshaw, were resighted during surveys; 86 percent of these “natal” flycatchers held territories at VLH. In 2020, we documented both adult and natal flycatchers moving from the former nest monitoring study area downstream from Lake Henshaw upstream to the habitat surrounding Lake Henshaw. Six natal flycatchers that were originally banded as nestlings and two adults that previously held territories downstream dispersed to Lake Henshaw in 2020.

California↗

USGS2021

Latest Quaternary slip rates of the San Bernardino strand of the San Andreas fault, southern California, from Cajon Creek to Badger Canyon

Four new latest Pleistocene slip rates from two sites along the northwestern half of the San Bernardino strand of the San Andreas fault suggest the slip rate decreases southeastward as slip transfers from the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault onto the northern San Jacinto fault zone. At Badger Canyon, offsets coupled with radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages provide three independent slip rates (with 95% confidence intervals): (1) the apex of the oldest dated alluvial fan (~30–28 ka) is right-laterally offset about 300–400 m yielding a slip rate of 13.5 +2.2/-2.5 mm/yr; (2) a terrace riser incised into the northwestern side of this alluvial fan is offset about 280-290 m and was abandoned ~23 ka, yielding a slip rate of 11.9 +0.9/-1.2 mm/yr; and (3) a younger alluvial fan (13-15 ka) has been offset 120–200 m from the same source canyon, yielding a slip rate of 11.8 +4.2/-3.5 mm/yr. These rates are all consistent and result in a preferred, time-averaged rate for the past ~28 ka of 12.8 +5.3/-4.7 mm/yr (95% confidence interval), with an 84% confidence interval of 10-16 mm/yr. At Matthews Ranch, in Pitman Canyon, about 13 km northwest of Badger Canyon, a landslide offset ~ 650 m with a 10Be age of ~47 ka yields a slip rate of 14.5 +9.9/-6.2 mm/yr (95% confidence interval). All of these slip rates for the San Bernardino strand are significantly slower than a previously published rate of 24.5 ± 3.5 mm/yr at the southern end of the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault (Weldon and Sieh, 1985), suggesting that ~12 mm/yr of slip transfers from the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault to the northern San Jacinto fault zone (and other faults) between Lone Pine Canyon and Badger Canyon, with most (if not all) of this slip transfer happening near Cajon Creek. This has been a consistent behavior of the fault for at least the past ~47 ka.

California↗

USGS2021

Influence of invasive submerged aquatic vegetation (E. densa) on currents and sediment transport in a freshwater tidal system

We present a field study combining measurements of vegetation density, vegetative drag, and reduction of suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) within patches of the invasive submerged aquatic plant Egeria densa . Our study was motivated by concern that sediment trapping by E. densa , which has proliferated in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, is impacting marsh accretion and reducing turbidity. In the freshwater tidal Delta, E. densa occupies shallow regions, frequently along channel margins. We investigated two sites: Lindsey Slough, a muddy low-energy backwater, and the lower Mokelumne River, with stronger currents and sandy bed sediments. At the two sites biomass density, frontal area, and areal density of the submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) were similar. Current attenuation within E. densa exceeded 90% and the vegetative drag coefficient followed , where is stem Reynolds number. The SAV reduced SSC by an average of 18% in Lindsey Slough. At Mokelumne River the reduction ranged 0–40%, with greatest trapping when discharge and SSC were elevated. This depletion of SSC decreases the transport of sediment to marshes by the same percentage, as the rising tide must pass through fringing SAV before reaching marshes. Sediment trapping in E. densa in the Delta is limited by low flux through the canopy and low settling velocity of suspended sediment (mostly flocculated mud). Sediment trapping by SAV has the potential to reduce channel SSC, but the magnitude and sign of the effect can vary with local factors including vegetative coverage and the depositional or erosional nature of the setting.

California↗

USGS2021

Multiple coping strategies maintain stability of a small mammal population in a resource-restricted environment

In semi-arid environments, aperiodic rainfall pulses determine plant production and resource availability for higher trophic levels, creating strong bottom-up regulation. The influence of climatic factors on population vital rates often shapes the dynamics of small mammal populations in such resource-restricted environments. Using a 21-year biannual capture–recapture dataset (1993 to 2014), we examined the impacts of climatic factors on the population dynamics of the brush mouse ( Peromyscus boylii ) in semi-arid oak woodland of coastal-central California. We applied Pradel's temporal symmetry model to estimate capture probability ( p ), apparent survival ( φ ), recruitment ( f ), and realized population growth rate ( λ ) of the brush mouse and examined the effects of temperature, rainfall, and El Niño on these demographic parameters. The population was stable during the study period with a monthly realized population growth rate of 0.993 ± SE 0.032, but growth varied over time from 0.680 ± 0.054 to 1.450 ± 0.083. Monthly survival estimates averaged 0.789 ± 0.005 and monthly recruitment estimates averaged 0.175 ± 0.038. Survival probability and realized population growth rate were positively correlated with rainfall and negatively correlated with temperature. In contrast, recruitment was negatively correlated with rainfall and positively correlated with temperature. Brush mice maintained their population through multiple coping strategies, with high recruitment during warmer and drier periods and higher survival during cooler and wetter conditions. Although climatic change in coastal-central California will likely favor recruitment over survival, varying strategies may serve as a mechanism by which brush mice maintain resilience in the face of climate change. Our results indicate that rainfall and temperature are both important drivers of brush mouse population dynamics and will play a significant role in predicting the future viability of brush mice under a changing climate.

California↗