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Faults & earthquakes

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At least 1,639 records · Page 91Linked to original sources

USGS1997

High-resolution seismic reflection profiling of the Santa Monica Fault Zone, West Los Angeles, California

High-resolution seismic reflection data obtained across the Santa Monica fault in west Los Angeles reveal the near-surface geometry of this active, oblique-reverse-left-lateral fault. Although near-surface fault dips as great as 55° cannot be ruled out, we interpret the fault to dip northward at 30° to 35° in the upper few hundred meters, steepening to ≥65° at 1 to 2 km depth. A total of ∼180 m of near-field thrust separation (fault slip plus drag folding) has occurred on the fault since the development of a prominent erosional surface atop ∼1.2 Ma strata. In the upper 20 to 40 m strain is partitioned between the north-dipping main thrust strand and several closely spaced, near-vertical strike-slip faults observed in paleoseismologic trenches. The main thrust strand can be traced to within 20 m of the ground surface, suggesting that it breaks through to the surface in large earthquakes. Uplift of a ∼50,000-year-old alluvial fan surface indicates a short-term, dip-slip rate of ∼0.5 mm/yr, similar to the ∼0.6 mm/yr dip-slip rate derived from vertical separation of the oxygen isotope stage 5e marine terrace 3 km west of the study site. If the 0.6 mm/yr minimum, dip-slip-only rate characterizes the entire history of the fault, then the currently active strand of the Santa Monica fault probably began moving within the past ∼300,000 years.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2005

Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California

Despite a lack of reliable deterministic earthquake precursors, seismologists have significant predictive information about earthquake activity from an increasingly accurate understanding of the clustering properties of earthquakes. In the past 15 years, time-dependent earthquake probabilities based on a generic short-term clustering model have been made publicly available in near-real time during major earthquake sequences. These forecasts describe the probability and number of events that are, on average, likely to occur following a mainshock of a given magnitude, but are not tailored to the particular sequence at hand and contain no information about the likely locations of the aftershocks. Our model builds upon the basic principles of this generic forecast model in two ways: it recasts the forecast in terms of the probability of strong ground shaking, and it combines an existing time-independent earthquake occurrence model based on fault data and historical earthquakes with increasingly complex models describing the local time-dependent earthquake clustering. The result is a time-dependent map showing the probability of strong shaking anywhere in California within the next 24 hours. The seismic hazard modelling approach we describe provides a better understanding of time-dependent earthquake hazard, and increases its usefulness for the public, emergency planners and the media.

Nature↗

USGS2005

Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake

Obtaining high-quality measurements close to a large earthquake is not easy: one has to be in the right place at the right time with the right instruments. Such a convergence happened, for the first time, when the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake occurred on the San Andreas fault in the middle of a dense network of instruments designed to record it. The resulting data reveal aspects of the earthquake process never before seen. Here we show what these data, when combined with data from earlier Parkfield earthquakes, tell us about earthquake physics and earthquake prediction. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, with its lack of obvious precursors, demonstrates that reliable short-term earthquake prediction still is not achievable. To reduce the societal impact of earthquakes now, we should focus on developing the next generation of models that can provide better predictions of the strength and location of damaging ground shaking.

California↗

USGS2006

Earthquakes triggered by silent slip events on Kīlauea volcano, Hawaii

Slow-slip events, or ‘silent earthquakes’, have recently been discovered in a number of subduction zones including the Nankai trough 1, 2, 3 in Japan, Cascadia 4, 5 , and Guerrero 6 in Mexico, but the depths of these events have been difficult to determine from surface deformation measurements. Although it is assumed that these silent earthquakes are located along the plate megathrust, this has not been proved. Slow slip in some subduction zones is associated with non-volcanic tremor 7, 8 , but tremor is difficult to locate and may be distributed over a broad depth range 9 . Except for some events on the San Andreas fault 10 , slow-slip events have not yet been associated with high-frequency earthquakes, which are easily located. Here we report on swarms of high-frequency earthquakes that accompany otherwise silent slips on K ī lauea volcano, Hawaii. For the most energetic event, in January 2005, the slow slip began before the increase in seismicity. The temporal evolution of earthquakes is well explained by increased stressing caused by slow slip, implying that the earthquakes are triggered. The earthquakes, located at depths of 7–8   km, constrain the slow slip to be at comparable depths, because they must fall in zones of positive Coulomb stress change. Triggered earthquakes accompanying slow-slip events elsewhere might go undetected if background seismicity rates are low. Detection of such events would help constrain the depth of slow slip, and could lead to a method for quantifying the increased hazard during slow-slip events, because triggered events have the potential to grow into destructive earthquakes.

Nature↗

USGS2020

Late Quaternary slip rates on the Sierra Madre fault zone and paleoseismic evidence on the size and frequency of past ruptures

The Sierra Madre fault zone is a south-vergent, active reverse fault that accommodates shortening between basins on the northern margin of the Los Angeles region and the San Gabriel Mountains. The preservation of late Quaternary alluvial fill and fan surfaces in the hanging wall of the fault provides evidence of long-term uplift. Surface rupture from the 1971 Mw 6.6 San Fernando earthquake and evidence of large prehistoric displacements from trenching investigations emphasize the ongoing hazard posed by the fault system to the region. This one-day field trip visits some of the key locations near Pasadena and San Fernando, California, where slip rates have been determined from cosmogenic and luminescence dating of abandoned surfaces dating to 50–70, ca. 30, and ca. 12 ka and surface offsets measured from lidar and pre-development topographic maps. Another stop is the site of a paleoseismic trench, which provided key evidence on the timing and displacement of past ruptures on the fault. In combination, results from these field investigations converge on a slip rate for the eastern ~100 km of the fault zone of 1–2 mm/yr, which matches or exceeds the rates for other reverse faults in southern California. This rate, in combination with trenching data that show no evidence of post–mid Holocene ruptures along the central and eastern portions of the fault, indicate the fault zone poses a significant seismic hazard to the region.

California↗

USGS2004

Geophysical and isotopic mapping of preexisting crustal structures that influenced the location and development of the San Jacinto fault zone, southern California

We examine the role of preexisting crustal structure within the Peninsular Ranges batholith on determining the location of the San Jacinto fault zone by analysis of geophysical anomalies and initial strontium ratio data. A 1000-km-long boundary within the Peninsular Ranges batholith, separating relatively mafic, dense, and magnetic rocks of the western Peninsular Ranges batholith from the more felsic, less dense, and weakly magnetic rocks of the eastern Peninsular Ranges batholith, strikes north-northwest toward the San Jacinto fault zone. Modeling of the gravity and magnetic field anomalies caused by this boundary indicates that it extends to depths of at least 20 km. The anomalies do not cross the San Jacinto fault zone, but instead trend northwesterly and coincide with the fault zone. A 75-km-long gradient in initial strontium ratios (Sri) in the eastern Peninsular Ranges batholith coincides with the San Jacinto fault zone. Here rocks east of the fault are characterized by Sri greater than 0.706, indicating a source of largely continental crust, sedimentary materials, or different lithosphere. We argue that the physical property contrast produced by the Peninsular Ranges batholith boundary provided a mechanically favorable path for the San Jacinto fault zone, bypassing the San Gorgonio structural knot as slip was transferred from the San Andreas fault 1.0-1.5 Ma. Two historical M6.7 earthquakes may have nucleated along the Peninsular Ranges batholith discontinuity in San Jacinto Valley, suggesting that Peninsular Ranges batholith crustal structure may continue to affect how strain is accommodated along the San Jacinto fault zone. ?? 2004 Geological Society of America.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

USGS2004

The Cottage Grove fault system (Illinois Basin): Late Paleozoic transpression along a Precambrian crustal boundary

The Cottage Grove fault system in southern Illinois has long been interpreted as an intracratonic dextral strike-slip fault system. We investigated its structural geometry and kinematics in detail using (1) outcrop data, (2) extensive exposures in underground coal mines, (3) abundant borehole data, and (4) a network of industry seismic reflection profiles, including data reprocessed by us. Structural contour mapping delineates distinct monoclines, broad anticlines, and synclines that express Paleozoic-age deformation associated with strike slip along the fault system. As shown on seismic reflection profiles, prominent near-vertical faults that cut the entire Paleozoic section and basement-cover contact branch upward into outward-splaying, high-angle reverse faults. The master fault, sinuous along strike, is characterized along its length by an elongate anticline, ???3 km wide, that parallels the southern side of the master fault. These features signify that the overall kinematic regime was transpressional. Due to the absence of suitable piercing points, the amount of slip cannot be measured, but is constrained at less than 300 m near the ground surface. The Cottage Grove fault system apparently follows a Precambrian terrane boundary, as suggested by magnetic intensity data, the distribution of ultramafic igneous intrusions, and patterns of earthquake activity. The fault system was primarily active during the Alleghanian orogeny of Late Pennsylvanian and Early Permian time, when ultramatic igneous magma intruded along en echelon tensional fractures. ?? 2004 Geological Society of America.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

USGS2011

Monitoring the Earthquake source process in North America

With the implementation of the USGS National Earthquake Information Center Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response system (PAGER), rapid determination of earthquake moment magnitude is essential, especially for earthquakes that are felt within the contiguous United States. We report an implementation of moment tensor processing for application to broad, seismically active areas of North America. This effort focuses on the selection of regional crustal velocity models, codification of data quality tests, and the development of procedures for rapid computation of the seismic moment tensor. We systematically apply these techniques to earthquakes with reported magnitude greater than 3.5 in continental North America that are not associated with a tectonic plate boundary. Using the 0.02-0.10 Hz passband, we can usually determine, with few exceptions, moment tensor solutions for earthquakes with M w as small as 3.7. The threshold is significantly influenced by the density of stations, the location of the earthquake relative to the seismic stations and, of course, the signal-to-noise ratio. With the existing permanent broadband stations in North America operated for rapid earthquake response, the seismic moment tensor of most earthquakes that are M w 4 or larger can be routinely computed. As expected the nonuniform spatial pattern of these solutions reflects the seismicity pattern. However, the orientation of the direction of maximum compressive stress and the predominant style of faulting is spatially coherent across large regions of the continent.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2017

Subsurface geometry of the San Andreas fault in southern California: Results from the Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) and strong ground motion expectations

The San Andreas fault (SAF) is one of the most studied strike‐slip faults in the world; yet its subsurface geometry is still uncertain in most locations. The Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) was undertaken to image the structure surrounding the SAF and also its subsurface geometry. We present SSIP studies at two locations in the Coachella Valley of the northern Salton trough. On our line 4, a fault‐crossing profile just north of the Salton Sea, sedimentary basin depth reaches 4 km southwest of the SAF. On our line 6, a fault‐crossing profile at the north end of the Coachella Valley, sedimentary basin depth is ∼ 2 – 3    km "> ∼ 2 – 3 km and centered on the central, most active trace of the SAF. Subsurface geometry of the SAF and nearby faults along these two lines is determined using a new method of seismic‐reflection imaging, combined with potential‐field studies and earthquakes. Below a 6–9 km depth range, the SAF dips ∼ 50 ° – 60 ° "> ∼ 50 ° – 60 ° NE, and above this depth range it dips more steeply. Nearby faults are also imaged in the upper 10 km, many of which dip steeply and project to mapped surface fault traces. These secondary faults may join the SAF at depths below about 10 km to form a flower‐like structure. In Appendix D , we show that rupture on a northeast‐dipping SAF, using a single plane that approximates the two dips seen in our study, produces shaking that differs from shaking calculated for the Great California ShakeOut, for which the southern SAF was modeled as vertical in most places: shorter‐period ( T < 1    s "> T < 1 s ) shaking is increased locally by up to a factor of 2 on the hanging wall and is decreased locally by up to a factor of 2 on the footwall, compared to shaking calculated for a vertical fault.

California↗

USGS2022

A fault‐based crustal deformation model with deep driven dislocation sources for the 2023 update to the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

A fault‐based crustal deformation model with deep driven dislocation sources is applied to estimate long‐term on‐fault slip rates and off‐fault moment rate distribution in the western United States (WUS) for the 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). This model uses the method of Zeng and Shen (2017) to invert for slip rate and strain‐rate parameters based on inputs from Global Positioning System (GPS) velocities and geologic slip‐rate constraints. The model connects adjacent major fault segments in California and the Cascadia subduction zone to form blocks that extend to the boundaries of the study area. Faults within the blocks are obtained from the NSHM geologic fault section database. The model slip rates are determined using a least‐squares inversion with a normalized chi‐square of 6.6. I also apply a time‐dependent correction called “ghost transient” effect to account for the viscoelastic responses from large historic earthquakes along the San Andreas fault and Cascadia subduction zone. Major discrepancies between model slip rates and geologic slip rates along the San Andreas fault, for example, from the Cholame to the Mojave and San Bernardino segments of the San Andreas, are well reduced after the ghost transient correction is applied to GPS velocities. The off‐fault moment rate distribution is consistent with regional tectonics and seismicity patterns with a total rate of 1.6 × 10 19    N · m / yr "> 1.6 × 10 19 N ⋅ m / yr for the WUS.

western United States↗

USGS1990

The next big earthquake in the Bay Area may come sooner than you think—Are you prepared?

Many of us breathed a little easier after October 17, 1989. The Lorna Prieta earthquake, 7.1 on the Richter scale, meant that the big one, talked about for decades, had finally happened. And, bad as it was, we had survived. There are two things wrong with that. First, Lorna Prieta was not the big one. It was a moderately big one, certainly destructive to some parts of the Bay Area, but nowhere near the size of the great San Francisco earthquake of 1906. Second, having an earthquake like Lorna Prieta has little to do with the likelihood of having another one on a different fault, somewhere else in the area. The inevitability of a damaging earthquake still confronts everybody in the Bay Area, and we still risk substantial damage. A new study, released in July 1990 by the United States Geological Survey, says that there is a 67 percent chance of another earthquake the size of Lorna Prieta during the next 30 years and that the quake could strike at any time, including today. In other words, scientists think that a magnitude 7 or larger earthquake is now twice as likely to happen as not to happen. This is a substantial increase, since in 1988, scientists thought the chance for such an earthquake was 50 percent Gust as likely to occur as not to occur) within 30 years. The new report also says that the next one will most likely strike farther north than Lorna Prieta, somewhere between San Jose and Santa Rosa on either side of the Bay. The epicenter of the October 1989 quake was in a sparsely populated area. The next one, according to the study, will likely be centered in a more populated area. During the Lorna Prieta earthquake, shaking was so severe in the Santa Cruz Mountains that a van overturned, treetops snapped off, and many people were thrown to the ground. Because the next one is expected to strike closer to an urban area, it will cause much more damage. Fortunately, there is something we can do about it. By taking actions, such as those described in this booklet, we can drastically reduce the losses and we can make the Bay Area a safer place to live. Earthquake damage is particularly great in certain locations and in certain buildings. Most locations and most modem buildings are relatively safe. By identifying the greatest hazards, we can set priorities for using our limited resources most effectively to reduce them. The choice is ours.

General Interest Publication↗

USGS2008

Predicted surface displacements for scenario earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay region

In the immediate aftermath of a major earthquake, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) will be called upon to provide information on the characteristics of the event to emergency responders and the media. One such piece of information is the expected surface displacement due to the earthquake. In conducting probabilistic hazard analyses for the San Francisco Bay Region, the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) identified a series of scenario earthquakes involving the major faults of the region, and these were used in their 2003 report (hereafter referred to as WG03) and the recently released 2008 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF). Here I present a collection of maps depicting the expected surface displacement resulting from those scenario earthquakes. The USGS has conducted frequent Global Positioning System (GPS) surveys throughout northern California for nearly two decades, generating a solid baseline of interseismic measurements. Following an earthquake, temporary GPS deployments at these sites will be important to augment the spatial coverage provided by continuous GPS sites for recording postseismic deformation, as will the acquisition of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) scenes. The information provided in this report allows one to anticipate, for a given event, where the largest displacements are likely to occur. This information is valuable both for assessing the need for further spatial densification of GPS coverage before an event and prioritizing sites to resurvey and InSAR data to acquire in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake. In addition, these maps are envisioned to be a resource for scientists in communicating with emergency responders and members of the press, particularly during the time immediately after a major earthquake before displacements recorded by continuous GPS stations are available.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2015

Trench logs, terrestrial lidar system imagery, and radiocarbon data from the kilometer-62 site on the Greenville Fault, southeastern Alameda County, California, 2014

In 2014, we investigated an abrupt 8.5-meter (m), right-laterally deflected stream channel located near the Greenville Fault in southeastern Alameda County, California (-121.56224° E, 37.53430° N) that we discovered using 0.5-m resolution, 2011 aerial lidar imagery flown along the active fault trace. Prior to trenching we surveyed the site using a terrestrial lidar system (TLS) to document the exact geomorphic expression of this deflected stream channel before excavating a trench adjacent to it. We trenched perpendicular to the fault hoping to document the prehistoric history of earthquake ruptures along the fault. However, the alluvial stratigraphy that we document in these trench logs shows conclusively that this trench did not expose any active fault trace. Using other local geomorphic evidence for the fault location, a straight fault scarp immediately north of this stream projects slightly upslope of the west end of our trench and may be the actual location of the active fault trace. Five radiocarbon samples establish age control for the alluvial sequence documented in the trench, which may in the future be useful in constraining the long-term slip rate of the Greenville Fault. The deflection had been caused by an abrupt nontectonic termination of unit u30, a relatively thick (0.15–0.35 m) silt that is more erosion resistant than the adjacent cohesionless sand and gravel.

California↗

USGS1980

Exploratory trench across the Pleasant Valley Fault, Nevada

An exploratory trench was excavated across the 1915 trace of the Pleasant Valley fault 60 km south of Winnemucca, Nevada, to get information on the history of recent displacements on a fault that had produced a major earthquake in historic time, and on the appearance of such a fault in a trench cut in gravels, sands and silts of an alluvial fan. The trench exposed 16 mappable sedimentary units and four soils, including three buried paleosols. The ages of the mapped units could not be narrowly defined but they are of late Quaternary age. Some rodent bones suggest a possible age of about 5,000 years for one of the higher stratigraphic units. The fault zone is very clearly represented in the trench, and, to the full 4-m depth of the trench, consists of a zone of fault rubble as much as 1.5 m wide. Two fractures outside the fault rubble show no vertical displacement. In addition to the fault rubble, the fault is conspicuous because several of the mapped units terminate abruptly against the rubble zone, and because the sediments southeast of the zone are coarser-grained than the sediments northwest of the zone. Maximum vertical component of the 1915 displacement was estimated to be 0.4–0.6 m based on topography and 0.5–0.6 m based on displacement of stratigraphic units including soils. Two or more episodes of vertical displacement, one of about 0.3 m and another totaling at least 1.15 m prior to 1915 are recorded and may have occurred in the last 5,000 years. These and other displacement events prior to 1915 are poorly dated, but that several did occur in late Pleistocene and Holocene time is certain. Lack of wedge-shaped deposits or concentrations of large clasts adjacent to the fault suggest that all displacements were produced in small increments of probably less than one meter each.

Nevada↗

USGS1999

Seismic subduction of the Nazca Ridge as shown by the 1996-97 Peru earthquakes

By rupturing more than half of the shallow subduction interface of the Nazca Ridge, the great November 12, 1996 Peruvian earthquake contradicts the hypothesis that oceanic ridges subduct aseismically. The mainshock's rupture has a length of about 200 km and has an average slip of about 1.4 m. Its moment is 1.5 x 1028 dyne-cm and the corresponding M(w) is 8.0. The mainshock registered three major episodes of moment release as shown by a finite fault inversion of teleseismically recorded broadband body waves. About 55% of the mainshock's total moment release occurred south of the Nazca Ridge, and the remaining moment release occurred at the southern half of the subduction interface of the Nazca Ridge. The rupture south of the Nazca Ridge was elongated parallel to the ridge axis and extended from a shallow depth to about 65 km depth. Because the axis of the Nazca Ridge is at a high angle to the plate convergence direction, the subducting Nazca Ridge has a large southwards component of motion, 5 cm/yr parallel to the coast. The 900-1200 m relief of the southwards sweeping Nazca Ridge is interpreted to act as a 'rigid indenter,' causing the greatest coupling south of the ridge's leading edge and leading to the large observed slip. The mainshock and aftershock hypocenters were relocated using a new procedure that simultaneously inverts local and teleseismic data. Most aftershocks were within the outline of the Nazca Ridge. A three-month delayed aftershock cluster' occurred at the northern part of the subducting Nazca Ridge. Aftershocks were notably lacking at the zone of greatest moment release, to the south of the Nazca Ridge. However, a lone foreshock at the southern end of this zone, some 140 km downstrike of the mainshock's epicenter, implies that conditions existed for rupture into that zone. The 1996 earthquake ruptured much of the inferred source zone of the M(w) 7.9-8.2 earthquake of 1942, although the latter was a slightly larger earthquake. The rupture zone of the 1996 earthquake is immediately north of the seismic gap left by the great earthquakes (M(w) ~8.8-9.1) of 1868 and 1877. The M(w) 8.0 Antofagasta earthquake of 1995 occurred at the southern end of this great seismic gap. The M(w) 8.2 deep-focus Bolivian earthquake of 1994 occurred directly downdip of the 1868 portion of that gap. The recent occurrence of three significant earthquakes on the periphery of the great seismic gap of the 1868 and 1877 events, among other factors, may signal an increased seismic potential for that zone.

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗

USGS2016

2016 update on induced earthquakes in the United States

During the past decade people living in numerous locations across the central U.S. experienced many more small to moderate sized earthquakes than ever before. This earthquake activity began increasing about 2009 and peaked during 2015 and into early 2016. For example, prior to 2009 Oklahoma typically experienced 1 or 2 small earthquakes per year with magnitude greater than 3.0 but by 2015 this number rose to over 900 earthquakes per year of that size and over 30 earthquakes greater than 4.0. These earthquakes can cause damage. In 2011 a magnitude 5.6 earthquake struck near the town of Prague, Oklahoma on a preexisting fault and caused severe damage to several houses and school buildings. During the past 6 years more than 1500 reports of damaging shaking levels were reported in areas of induced seismicity. This rapid increase and the potential for damaging ground shaking from induced earthquakes caused alarm to about 8 million people living nearby and officials responsible for public safety. They wanted to understand why earthquakes were increasing and the potential threats to society and buildings located nearby.

Book chapter↗

USGS2001

Analysis of late Quaternary faulting in San Diego Bay and hazard to the Coronado Bridge

Southern California is transected by numerous pervasive northwest-trending Quaternary fault zones. Together they form the broad transform-fault boundary along which the Pacific and North America crustal plates move irregularly past one another in a right-lateral sense at a rate of about 5 centimeters (cm)/year. The city of San Diego, which lies adjacent to the Pacific Ocean in the southwestern-most corner of California, is cut by one such fault zone -- the Rose Canyon Fault Zone. Oblique movement on faults within the Rose Canyon Fault Zone has, over time, led to the development of San Diego Bay, which separates the metropolitan area of San Diego from Coronado and North Island. The Coronado Bridge spans San Diego Bay and connects the cities of San Diego and Coronado. A principal concern regarding the bridge's earthquake safety involves its proximity, especially of its foundation piers, to potential shallow fault rupture. The objectives of this study were (1) to identify and accurately locate Holocene faults (those younger than about 12,000 years) and (2) to determine the time of the most recent movement on these faults and, therefore, their potential hazard to the Coronado Bridge.

California Geology↗

USGS2020

Practical limitations of Earthquake Early Warning

Earthquake Early Earning (EEW) entails detection of initial earthquake shaking and rapid estimation and notification to users prior to imminent, stronger shaking. EEW is coming to the U.S. West Coast. But what are the technical and social challenges to delivering actionable information on earthquake shaking before it arrives? Although there will be tangible benefits, there are also limitations. Basic seismological principles, alert communication challenges, and potential response actions as well as substantial lessons learned from the use of EEW in Japan, point to more limited opportunities to warn and protect than perhaps many expect. This is in part because potential warning times vary by region and are influenced by tectonic environment, hypocentral depth, and the fault’s proximity to the alert user. For the U.S. West Coast, particularly for crustal earthquakes, warning times are less impressive—and possible mitigation actions are likely to be less effective—than often maintained. Nevertheless, EEW is an additional arrow in the quiver of earthquake information tools available in the service of earthquake risk reduction. What is called for, then, is transparency and balance in the EEW discussion: along with its potential, the acknowledgement of EEW’s inherent and practical limitations is needed. Recognizing these limitations could, in fact, make EEW implementation more successful as part of a holistic earthquake mitigation strategy, where its role among other earthquake information tools is quite natural.

Earthquake Spectra↗