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Faults & earthquakes

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At least 1,441 records · Page 80Linked to original sources

USGS2017

A prototype operational earthquake loss model for California based on UCERF3-ETAS – A first look at valuation

We present a prototype operational loss model based on UCERF3-ETAS, which is the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast with an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) component. As such, UCERF3-ETAS represents the first earthquake forecast to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multi-fault ruptures, elastic-rebound, and spatiotemporal clustering, all of which seem important for generating realistic and useful aftershock statistics. UCERF3-ETAS is nevertheless an approximation of the system, however, so usefulness will vary and potential value needs to be ascertained in the context of each application. We examine this question with respect to statewide loss estimates, exemplifying how risk can be elevated by orders of magnitude due to triggered events following various scenario earthquakes. Two important considerations are the probability gains, relative to loss likelihoods in the absence of main shocks, and the rapid decay of gains with time. Significant uncertainties and model limitations remain, so we hope this paper will inspire similar analyses with respect to other risk metrics to help ascertain whether operationalization of UCERF3-ETAS would be worth the considerable resources required.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2006

Predicted liquefaction of East Bay fills during a repeat of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake

Predicted conditional probabilities of surface manifestations of liquefaction during a repeat of the 1906 San Francisco (M7.8) earthquake range from 0.54 to 0.79 in the area underlain by the sandy artificial fills along the eastern shore of San Francisco Bay near Oakland, California. Despite widespread liquefaction in 1906 of sandy fills in San Francisco, most of the East Bay fills were emplaced after 1906 without soil improvement to increase their liquefaction resistance. They have yet to be shaken strongly. Probabilities are based on the liquefaction potential index computed from 82 CPT soundings using median (50th percentile) estimates of PGA based on a ground-motion prediction equation. Shaking estimates consider both distance from the San Andreas Fault and local site conditions. The high probabilities indicate extensive and damaging liquefaction will occur in East Bay fills during the next M ??? 7.8 earthquake on the northern San Andreas Fault. ?? 2006, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS1982

The 1979 Imperial Valley. California, earthquake

On October 15, 1979, the largest earthquake in California in the last quarter century occurred on the imperial fault near the international boundary between the United States and Mexico. The earthquake measured 6.6 on the Richter scale and was felt from Las Vegas, Nevada, to northern Mexico. Surface movement on four fault zones accompanied the earthquake and caused approximately $30 million in damage.

Earthquake Information Bulletin (USGS)↗

USGS1983

Faulting arrested by control of ground-water withdrawal in Houston, Texas

More than 86 historically active faults with an aggregate length of 150 miles have been identified within and adjacent to the Houston, Texas, metropolitan area. Although scarps of these faults grow gradually and without causing damaging earthquakes, historical fault offset has cost millions of dollars in damage to houses and other buildings, utilities, and highways that were built on or across the faults. The historical fault activity results from renewed movement along preexisting faults and appears to be caused principally by withdrawal of ground water for municipal, industrial, and agricultural uses in the Houston area. Approximately one-half of the area's water supply is obtained from local ground water. Monitoring by the US Geological Survey of heights of fault scarps indicates that many of the scarps have recently stopped increasing in height. The area where faulting has ceased coincides with the area where ground-water pumping was cut back in the mid-1970s to slow the damage caused by land subsidence along Galveston Bay and the Houston Ship Channel. Thus, it appears that efforts to halt land subsidence in the coastal area have provided the additional benefit of arresting damaging surface faulting. -from Authors

Texas↗

USGS2014

The 17 May 2012 M4.8 earthquake near Timpson, East Texas: An event possibly triggered by fluid injection

This study summarizes our investigation of the 17 May 2012 MW-RMT4.8 earthquake near Timpson, Texas, the largest earthquake recorded historically in eastern Texas. To identify preshocks and aftershocks of the 17 May event we examined the arrivals recorded at Nacogdoches (NATX) 30 km from the 17 May epicenter, at nearby USArray Transportable Array stations, and at eight temporary stations deployed between 26 May 2012 and mid-2013. At NATX we identified seven preshocks, the earliest occurring in April 2008. Reliably located aftershocks recorded by the temporary stations lie along a 6 km long NW-SE linear trend corresponding to a previously mapped basement fault that extends across the highest-intensity (MMI VII) region of the 17 May main shock. Earthquakes in this sequence are relatively shallow—with focal depths ranging from 1.6 to 4.6 km. Evidence supporting these depths include: hypocentral locations of exceptionally well-recorded aftershocks, S-P intervals at the nearest stations, and comparisons of synthetics and observed seismograms. Within 3 km of the linear trend of aftershock activity there are two Class II injection disposal wells injecting at 1.9 km depth beginning in August 2006 and February 2007, with injection rates averaging 42,750 m3/mo and 15,600 m3/mo, respectively. Several observations support the hypothesis that fluid injection triggered the Timpson sequence: well-located epicenters are situated near a mapped basement fault and near high-volume injection wells, focal depths are at or below the depths of injection, and the earliest preshock (April 2008) occurred after the onset of injection in 2006.

Texas↗

USGS2014

Laboratory constraints on models of earthquake recurrence

In this study, rock friction ‘stick-slip’ experiments are used to develop constraints on models of earthquake recurrence. Constant-rate loading of bare rock surfaces in high quality experiments produces stick-slip recurrence that is periodic at least to second order. When the loading rate is varied, recurrence is approximately inversely proportional to loading rate. These laboratory events initiate due to a slip rate-dependent process that also determines the size of the stress drop [Dieterich, 1979; Ruina, 1983] and as a consequence, stress drop varies weakly but systematically with loading rate [e.g., Gu and Wong, 1991; Karner and Marone, 2000; McLaskey et al., 2012]. This is especially evident in experiments where the loading rate is changed by orders of magnitude, as is thought to be the loading condition of naturally occurring, small repeating earthquakes driven by afterslip, or low-frequency earthquakes loaded by episodic slip. As follows from the previous studies referred to above, experimentally observed stress drops are well described by a logarithmic dependence on recurrence interval that can be cast as a non-linear slip-predictable model. The fault’s rate dependence of strength is the key physical parameter. Additionally, even at constant loading rate the most reproducible laboratory recurrence is not exactly periodic, unlike existing friction recurrence models. We present example laboratory catalogs that document the variance and show that in large catalogs, even at constant loading rate, stress drop and recurrence co-vary systematically. The origin of this covariance is largely consistent with variability of the dependence of fault strength on slip rate. Laboratory catalogs show aspects of both slip and time predictability and successive stress drops are strongly correlated indicating a ‘memory’ of prior slip history that extends over at least one recurrence cycle.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

USGS2016

Vertical deformation associated with normal fault systems evolved over coseismic, postseismic, and multiseismic periods

Vertical deformation of extensional provinces varies significantly and in seemingly contradictory ways. Sparse but robust geodetic, seismic, and geologic observations in the Basin and Range province of the western United States indicate that immediately after an earthquake, vertical change primarily occurs as subsidence of the normal fault hanging wall. A few decades later, a ±100 km wide zone is symmetrically uplifted. The preserved topography of long-term rifting shows bent and tilted footwall flanks rising high above deep basins. We develop finite element models subjected to extensional and gravitational forces to study time-varying deformation associated with normal faulting. We replicate observations with a model that has a weak upper mantle overlain by a stronger lower crust and a breakable elastic upper crust. A 60° dipping normal fault cuts through the upper crust and extends through the lower crust to simulate an underlying shear zone. Stretching the model under gravity demonstrates that asymmetric slip via collapse of the hanging wall is a natural consequence of coseismic deformation. Focused flow in the upper mantle imposed by deformation of the lower crust localizes uplift under the footwall; the breakable upper crust is a necessary model feature to replicate footwall bending over the observed width ( < 10 km), which is predicted to take place within 1-2 decades after each large earthquake. Thus the best-preserved topographic signature of rifting is expected to occur early in the postseismic period. The relatively stronger lower crust in our models is necessary to replicate broader postseismic uplift that is observed geodetically in subsequent decades.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

USGS2016

A large refined catalog of earthquake relocations and focal mechanisms for the Island of Hawai'i and its seismotectonic implications

We present high-quality focal mechanisms based on a refined earthquake location catalog for the Island of Hawai'i, focusing on Mauna Loa and Kīlauea volcanoes. The relocation catalog is based on first-arrival times and waveform data of both compressional and shear waves for about 180,000 events on and near the Island of Hawai'i between 1986 and 2009 recorded by the seismic stations at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. We relocate all the earthquakes by applying ray tracing through an existing three-dimensional velocity model, similar event cluster analysis, and a differential-time relocation method. The resulting location catalog represents an expansion of previous relocation studies, covering a longer time period and consisting of more events with well-constrained absolute locations. The focal mechanisms are obtained based on the compressional-wave first-motion polarities and compressional-to-shear wave amplitude ratios by applying the HASH program to the waveform cross correlation relocated earthquakes. Overall, the good-quality (defined by the HASH parameters) focal solutions are dominated by normal faulting in our study area, especially in the active Ka'ōiki and Hīlea seismic zones. Kīlauea caldera is characterized by a mixture of approximately equal numbers of normal, strike-slip, and reverse faults, whereas its south flank has slightly fewer strike-slip events. Our relocation and focal mechanism results will be useful for mapping the seismic stress and strain fields and for understanding the seismic-volcanic-tectonic relationships within the magmatic systems.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2017

Presentation and analysis of a worldwide database of earthquake-induced landslide inventories

Earthquake-induced landslide (EQIL) inventories are essential tools to extend our knowledge of the relationship between earthquakes and the landslides they can trigger. Regrettably, such inventories are difficult to generate and therefore scarce, and the available ones differ in terms of their quality and level of completeness. Moreover, access to existing EQIL inventories is currently difficult because there is no centralized database. To address these issues, we compiled EQIL inventories from around the globe based on an extensive literature study. The database contains information on 363 landslide-triggering earthquakes and includes 66 digital landslide inventories. To make these data openly available, we created a repository to host the digital inventories that we have permission to redistribute through the U.S. Geological Survey ScienceBase platform. It can grow over time as more authors contribute their inventories. We analyze the distribution of EQIL events by time period and location, more specifically breaking down the distribution by continent, country, and mountain region. Additionally, we analyze frequency distributions of EQIL characteristics, such as the approximate area affected by landslides, total number of landslides, maximum distance from fault rupture zone, and distance from epicenter when the fault plane location is unknown. For the available digital EQIL inventories, we examine the underlying characteristics of landslide size, topographic slope, roughness, local relief, distance to streams, peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and Modified Mercalli Intensity. Also, we present an evaluation system to help users assess the suitability of the available inventories for different types of EQIL studies and model development.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

USGS2013

Source mechanisms of persistent shallow earthquakes during eruptive and non-eruptive periods between 1981 and 2011 at Mount St. Helens, Washington

Shallow seismicity between 0 and 3-km depth has persisted at Mount St. Helens, Washington (MSH) during both eruptive and non-eruptive periods for at least the past thirty years. In this study we investigate the source mechanisms of shallow volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes at MSH by calculating high-quality hypocenter locations and fault plane solutions (FPS) for all VT events recorded during two eruptive periods (1981–1986 and 2004–2008) and two non-eruptive periods (1987–2004 and 2008–2011). FPS show a mixture of normal, reverse, and strike-slip faulting during all periods, with a sharp increase in strike-slip faulting observed in 1987–1997 and an increase in normal faulting in 1998–2004. FPS P-axis orientations show a ~ 90° rotation with respect to regional σ1 (N23°E) during 1981–1986 and 2004–2008, bimodal orientations (~ N-S and ~ E-W) during 1987–2004, and bimodal orientations at ~ N-E and ~ S-W from 2008–2011. We interpret these orientations to likely be due to pressurization accompanying the shallow intrusion and subsequent eruption of magma as domes during 1981–1986 and 2004–2008 and the buildup of pore pressure beneath a seismogenic volume (located at 0–1 km) with a smaller component due to the buildup of tectonic forces during 1987–2004 and 2008–2011.

Washington↗

USGS2019

Lithosphere and shallow asthenosphere rheology from observations of post-earthquake relaxation

In tectonically active regions, post-earthquake motions are generally shaped by a combination of continued fault slippage (afterslip) on a timescale of days to months and viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle on a timescale of days to years. Transient crustal motions have been observed following numerous magnitude >~7 earthquakes in various tectonic settings: continental rift zones (Basin and Range), continental plate boundary zones (San Andreas fault corridor; Alaska; Turkey), subduction zones (Japan, Chile, Sumatra), ongoing continental collision zones (Arabia; Tibet), and mid-ocean rifting zones (Iceland). When afterslip can be discriminated from viscoelastic relaxation and when temporal coverage of the postseismic measurements is broad (i.e., geodetic surveys of at least several years duration are available), a wide spectrum of relaxation timescales are usually identified. Current temporal resolution and modeling approaches (e.g., Burgers body analog) allow identification of transient (Kelvin) and steady-state (Maxwell) viscosities that are operable in the short-term and long-term, respectively. I compile results from 40 studies of post-earthquake motions, augmented by ten studies of contemporary surface loading or unloading, that illuminate current estimates of transient and steady-state viscosity of the lower crust and/or uppermost mantle. Lower crust viscosity estimates range from ~ 10 18 to 10 21 Pa s, with most estimates near the upper end except in areas of overthickened crust. Mantle lithosphere and asthenosphere viscosity estimates are particularly abundant and yield a picture of transient viscosity ranging from ~10 16 to 10 19 Pa s and steady-state viscosity ranging from ~10 18 to 10 21 Pa s. To first order, both transient and steady-state viscosities are well correlated with regional heat flow, and steady-state viscosities are comparable with temperature and strain-rate dependent rock viscosities from laboratory-based flow laws.

Physics of Earth and Planetary Interiors↗

USGS2002

32 - Rock failure and earthquakes

This chapter summarizes experimental observations and related theoretical developments of faulted and intact rock properties related to earthquake nucleation, failure and dynamic slip. We will be concerned primarily with earthquakes occurring in the brittle crust. Intermediate and deep-focus earthquakes have unique mechanical considerations that are discussed in Section 7 . We focus on repeatable laboratory observations and their direct implications for fault strength and stability. Important results that may be new, incomplete or controversial have also been included. To distinguish the well-established findings from others, the latter appear in “new and provisional results” sections.

International Geophysics↗

USGS2001

The failure of earthquake failure models

In this study I show that simple heuristic models and numerical calculations suggest that an entire class of commonly invoked models of earthquake failure processes cannot explain triggering of seismicity by transient or "dynamic" stress changes, such as stress changes associated with passing seismic waves. The models of this class have the common feature that the physical property characterizing failure increases at an accelerating rate when a fault is loaded (stressed) at a constant rate. Examples include models that invoke rate state friction or subcritical crack growth, in which the properties characterizing failure are slip or crack length, respectively. Failure occurs when the rate at which these grow accelerates to values exceeding some critical threshold. These accelerating failure models do not predict the finite durations of dynamically triggered earthquake sequences (e.g., at aftershock or remote distances). Some of the failure models belonging to this class have been used to explain static stress triggering of aftershocks. This may imply that the physical processes underlying dynamic triggering differs or that currently applied models of static triggering require modification. If the former is the case, we might appeal to physical mechanisms relying on oscillatory deformations such as compaction of saturated fault gouge leading to pore pressure increase, or cyclic fatigue. However, if dynamic and static triggering mechanisms differ, one still needs to ask why static triggering models that neglect these dynamic mechanisms appear to explain many observations. If the static and dynamic triggering mechanisms are the same, perhaps assumptions about accelerating failure and/or that triggering advances the failure times of a population of inevitable earthquakes are incorrect.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2004

Imaging the source region of the 2003 San Simeon earthquake within the weak Franciscan subduction complex, central California

Data collected from the 2003 Mw6.5 San Simeon earthquake sequence in central California and a 1986 seismic refraction experiment demonstrate that the weak Franciscan subduction complex suffered brittle failure in a region without significant velocity contrast across a slip plane. Relocated hypocenters suggest a spatial relationship between the seismicity and the Oceanic fault, although blind faulting on a nearby, unknown fault is an equally plausible alternative. The aftershock volume is sandwiched between the Nacimiento and Oceanic faults and is characterized by rocks of low compressional velocity (Vp) abutted to the east and west by rocks of higher Vp. This volume of inferred Franciscan rocks is embedded within the larger Santa Lucia anticline. Pore fluids, whose presence is implied by elevated Vp/Vs values, may locally decrease normal stress and limit the aftershock depth distribution between 3 to 10 km within the hanging wall. The paucity of aftershocks along the mainshock rupture surface may reflect either the absence of a damage zone or an almost complete stress drop within the low Vp or weak rock matrix surrounding the mainshock rupture. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2005

A hypothesis for delayed dynamic earthquake triggering

It's uncertain whether more near-field earthquakes are triggered by static or dynamic stress changes. This ratio matters because static earthquake interactions are increasingly incorporated into probabilistic forecasts. Recent studies were unable to demonstrate all predictions from the static-stress-change hypothesis, particularly seismicity rate reductions. However, current dynamic stress change hypotheses do not explain delayed earthquake triggering and Omori's law. Here I show numerically that if seismic waves can alter some frictional contacts in neighboring fault zones, then dynamic triggering might cause delayed triggering and an Omori-law response. The hypothesis depends on faults following a rate/state friction law, and on seismic waves changing the mean critical slip distance (Dc) at nucleation zones.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2006

Toward resolving an earthquake ground motion mystery in west Seattle, Washington State: Shallow seismic focusing may cause anomalous chimney damage

A shallow bedrock fold imaged by a 1.3-km long high-resolution shear-wave seismic reflection profile in west Seattle focuses seismic waves arriving from the south. This focusing may cause a pocket of amplified ground shaking and the anomalous chimney damage observed in earthquakes of 1949, 1965 and 2001. The 200-m bedrock fold at ???300-m depth is caused by deformation across an inferred fault within the Seattle fault zone. Ground motion simulations, using the imaged geologic structure and northward-propagating north-dipping plane wave sources, predict a peak horizontal acceleration pattern that matches that observed in strong motion records of the 2001 Nisqually event. Additionally, a pocket of chimney damage reported for both the 1965 and the 2001 earthquakes generally coincides with a zone of simulated amplification caused by focusing. This study further demonstrates the significant impact shallow (<1km) crustal structures can have on earthquake ground-motion variability.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2006

Static stress change from the 8 October, 2005 M = 7.6 Kashmir earthquake

We calculated static stress changes from the devastating M = 7.6 earthquake that shook Kashmir on 8 October, 2005. We mapped Coulomb stress change on target fault planes oriented by assuming a regional compressional stress regime with greatest principal stress directed orthogonally to the mainshock strike. We tested calculation sensitivity by varying assumed stress orientations, target-fault friction, and depth. Our results showed no impact on the active Salt Range thrust southwest of the rupture. Active faults north of the Main Boundary thrust near Peshawar fall in a calculated stress-decreased zone, as does the Raikot fault zone to the northeast. We calculated increased stress near the rupture where most aftershocks occurred. The greatest increase to seismic hazard is in the Indus-Kohistan seismic zone near the Indus River northwest of the rupture termination, and southeast of the rupture termination near the Kashmir basin.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2009

Constraining earthquake source inversions with GPS data: 2. A two-step approach to combine seismic and geodetic data sets

We present a new method to combine static and wavefield data to image earthquake ruptures. Our combined inversion is a two-step procedure, following the work of Hernandez et al. (1999), and takes into account the differences between the resolutions of the two data sets. The first step consists of an inversion of the static field, which yields a map of slip amplitude. This inversion exploits a special irregular grid that takes into account the resolution of the static data. The second step is an inversion of the radiated wavefield; it results in the determination of the time evolution of slip on the fault. In the second step, the slip amplitude is constrained to resemble the static slip amplitude map inferred from the GPS inversion. Using this combined inversion, we study the source process of the 2004 M6 Parkfield, California, earthquake. We conclude that slip occurred in two main regions of the fault, each of which displayed distinct rupture behaviors. Slip initiated at the hypocenter with a very strong bilateral burst of energy. Here, slip was localized in a narrow area approximately 10 km long, the rupture velocity was very fast (???3.5 km/s), and slip only lasted a short period of time (<1 s). Then the rupture proceeded to a wider region 12-20 km northwest of the hypocenter. Here, the earthquake developed in a more moderated way: the rupture velocity slowed to ???3.0 km/s and slip lasted longer (1-2 s). The maximum slip amplitude was 0.45 m. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗