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Faults & earthquakes

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USGS2026

Ground motions from finite faults with unknown geometry

Earthquake emergency response and loss modeling require accurate models of ground‐motion intensity metrics (IMs), such as those produced by ShakeMap. In the critical minutes and hours after an earthquake, however, knowledge of the earthquake source geometry limits the accuracy of these models, especially in areas where seismic instrumentation is insufficient to constrain the shaking intensity pattern. Previous attempts to overcome this limitation have centered on computing the mean distance metrics from a suite of assumed source geometries. That approach is inadequate with modern ground‐motion models (GMMs) because they typically include terms for the hanging wall effect, depth to top of rupture, and other nonlinear terms. Such approaches also propagate the distance uncertainty through the GMMs and may not properly allocate the additional uncertainty into the between‐ and within‐event components. Here we present Finite‐Fault SIMulation with Mixed Effects Regression (FFSIMMER), a method to address these limitations by computing IM distributions from a suite of rupture realizations that fully accounts for all geometry‐related GMM terms and allows for the separation of the between‐ and within‐event components of the total uncertainty. The accuracy of this method is limited by the available constraints on the source parameters. To address this, FFSIMMER can incorporate constraints based on knowledge of the source, such as the approximate strike and dip based on knowledge of the plate tectonics and focal mechanism of the earthquake. We demonstrate the improvement in accuracy that can be achieved with the 2025 M 7.7 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar), earthquake by incorporating constraints on the range of plausible source parameters.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2026

How to determine an earthquake rate budget? A comparison of geodetic, geologic, and seismologic moment rates

How much tectonic geodetic strain is accommodated as earthquakes? Can estimates of tectonic geodetic strain be used in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses? Understanding the balance of moment accumulation (i.e., geodetic moment) and accommodation (i.e., geologic and seismologic moment) is a necessary step toward leveraging corrected geodetic strain rates to quantify earthquake budgets. We investigate these questions using updated geodetic, geologic, and seismologic datasets compiled for the western United States (WUS) portion of the 2023 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM23‐WUS) to provide new views of moment rates across the WUS. We compare moment rates using a floating footprint approach across the extent of the NSHM23‐WUS fault sections database. We make these comparisons using “moment rate deviation (MRD),” which is defined as a surplus or deficit of geodetic moment rate relative to the sum of geologic and seismologic moment rates. We find that, in general, higher strain rate areas of the WUS (i.e., plate boundary) have smaller values of MRD, meaning that geodetic moment rates approximate the earthquake record preserved by geologic and seismologic moment rates well. In contrast, the lower strain rate, eastern portions of our analysis domain (i.e., intraplate) have very high values of MRD, with geodetic moment rates exceeding measured geologic and seismologic moment rates. We find that geodetic moment rates appear to be representative of the earthquake budget in relatively well‐characterized, interplate regions, and geodetic estimates of off‐fault deformation could be considered in seismic hazard analyses where MRD is minimized.

western United States↗

USGS2017

The effects of varying injection rates in Osage County, Oklahoma, on the 2016 Mw5.8 Pawnee earthquake

The 2016 M w 5.8 Pawnee earthquake occurred in a region with active wastewater injection into a basal formation group. Prior to the earthquake, fluid injection rates at most wells were relatively steady, but newly collected data show significant increases in injection rate in the years leading up to earthquake. For the same time period, the total volumes of injected wastewater were roughly equivalent between variable‐rate and constant‐rate wells. To understand the possible influence of these changes in injection, we simulate the variable‐rate injection history and its constant‐rate equivalent in a layered poroelastic half‐space to explore the interplay between pore‐pressure effects and poroelastic effects on the fault leading up to the mainshock. In both cases, poroelastic stresses contribute a significant proportion of Coulomb failure stresses on the fault compared to pore‐pressure increases alone, but the resulting changes in seismicity rate, calculated using a rate‐and‐state frictional model, are many times larger when poroelastic effects are included, owing to enhanced stressing rates. In particular, the variable‐rate simulation predicts more than an order of magnitude increase in seismicity rate above background rates compared to the constant‐rate simulation with equivalent volume. The observed cumulative density of earthquakes prior to the mainshock within 10 km of the injection source exhibits remarkable agreement with seismicity predicted by the variable‐rate injection case.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2020

Rupture process of the M6.5 Stanley, Idaho, earthquake inferred from seismic waveform and geodetic data

The 2020 M 6.5 Stanley, Idaho, earthquake produced rupture in the north of the active Sawtooth fault in the northern basin and range at depth, without any observable surface rupture. Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data yield several millimeters of static offsets out to ∼100 km from the rupture and up to ∼0.1 m of near‐field crustal deformation. We combine the GPS and InSAR data with long‐period regional seismic waveforms to derive models of kinematic slip and afterslip. We find that the coseismic rupture is complex, likely involving up to 2 m combined left‐lateral strike slip and normal slip on a previously unidentified ∼south‐southeast‐striking fault. This slip is predominantly left‐lateral strike slip, different from the dominant east‐northeast–west‐northwest normal faulting of the region. At least one ∼northeast‐trending fault, likely associated with the Trans‐Challis fault system, is inferred to have accommodated a few decimeters of right‐lateral afterslip, consistent with vigorous aftershock activity at depth along northeast‐trending lineations.

Idaho↗

USGS2022

Using machine learning techniques with incomplete polarity datasets to improve earthquake focal mechanism determination

Earthquake focal mechanisms are traditionally produced using P ‐wave first‐motion polarities and commonly require well‐recorded seismicity. A recent approach that is less dependent on high signal‐to‐noise exploits similar waveforms to produce relative polarity measurements between earthquake pairs. Utilizing these relative polarity measurements, it is possible to produce composite focal mechanisms for clusters within microseismic sequences using regional networks. However, missing or low‐confidence polarity measurements still limit our ability to calculate high‐quality composite focal mechanisms. Here, we replaced unreliable polarity measurements with estimates using iterative random forests, an unsupervised ensemble machine learning method. Using the imputed (“replaced”) polarity data, we then categorically clustered the events into families. As a case study, we applied this modified composite mechanism workflow to a multistation template matched catalog of an earthquake swarm that occurred during 2020 near the Maacama fault in northern California. We found that our modified methodology produced higher‐quality earthquake families and improved composite focal mechanisms, with fault‐plane uncertainties <35° for 94% of the families compared with 34% of families using the previous methodology.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2026

A ground-motion model derived using a generalized mean rupture distance for large slab interface earthquakes

Source–station distance is a central input to ground‐motion models (GMMs) for predicting seismic shaking. GMM development uses distance metrics including the Joyner–Boore distance, which is the shortest distance from an observation point to the surface projection of the earthquake rupture, and R rup the shortest distance to the rupture in three dimensions. Thompson and Baltay (2018) proposed the generalized mean rupture distance R p to address observed near‐fault ground‐motion saturation. R p accounts for the contribution to the shaking of all parts of the rupture and provides a simple method for incorporating spatially variable slip. They used R p to develop a GMM for shallow crustal earthquakes, assuming uniform slip. Here, we investigate the improvement offered by an R p ‐based GMM for large subduction interface earthquakes by recalibrating the path term for a published GMM ( Parker et al. , 2022 ) using R p derived from distributed slip models (DSMs). Inspection of within‐event and total residuals indicates that the recalibrated model fits the data at least as well as an alternative in which the path term was recalibrated using R rup and the same dataset. Incorporating slip information in its entirety or trimming the DSM geometry is preferable to assuming uniform moment release on a prescribed model fault that extends beyond the actual ruptured area. R p tuned to minimize model uncertainty is closer to the maximum distance to rupture for peak ground velocity (PGV) than acceleration, possibly reflecting the contribution to high‐frequency shaking of slip on local asperities. However, when the moment is concentrated far from stations, PGV is fit adequately with R p closer to R rup ⁠ . Our results suggest incorporating slip‐derived moment release through R p could improve GMMs for slab interface events, especially if the implementation of R p ‐based models is refined using a larger dataset of earthquakes with greater geographic diversity to account for regional ground‐motion variations.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS1999

Calculation of broadband time histories of ground motion: Comparison of methods and validation using strong-ground motion from the 1994 Northridge earthquake

This article compares techniques for calculating broadband time histories of ground motion in the near field of a finite fault by comparing synthetics with the strong-motion data set for the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Based on this comparison, a preferred methodology is presented. Ground-motion-simulation techniques are divided into two general methods: kinematic- and composite-fault models. Green's functions of three types are evaluated: stochastic, empirical, and theoretical. A hybrid scheme is found to give the best fit to the Northridge data. Low frequencies (< 1 Hz) are calculated using a kinematic-fault model and a 3D finite-difference code to propagate energy through a realistic 3D velocity structure. High frequencies (> 1 Hz) are calculated using a composite-fault model with a fractal subevent size distribution and stochastic, bandlimited, white-noise Green's functions. At frequencies below 1 Hz, theoretical elastic-wave-propagation synthetics introduce proper seismic-phase arrivals of body waves and surface waves. The 3D velocity structure more accurately reproduces record durations for the deep sedimentary basin structures found in the Los Angeles region. At frequencies above 1 Hz, scattering effects become important and wave propagation is more accurately represented by stochastic Green's functions. A fractal subevent size distribution for the composite fault model ensures an ω −2 spectral shape over the entire frequency band considered (0.1-20 Hz).

California↗

USGS1996

Earthquakes and the southeastern boundary of the intact Iapetan margin in eastern North America

Earthquakes at three localities in eastern North America have been attributed on geological and seismological grounds to compressional reactivation of some of the late Proterozoic or early Paleozoic normal faults in the northeast-trending Iapetan passive margin. Assessment of seismic hazard can be aided by identifying the boundaries of the area of Iapetan faulting. A previous paper located the northwestern boundary. This report interprets deep seismic-reflection profiles as showing that the margin comprises a seismically active northwestern part, where Precambrian crust contains some Iapetan faults but remains mostly as it was formed, and a southeastern part, where later deformations likely destroyed or modified the Precambrian crust and Iapetan faults. Accordingly, the boundary between the northwestern and southeastern parts of the margin, which coincides approximately with the Appalachian gravity gradient, can be taken as the southeastern limit of potentially seismogenic Iapetan faults.

eastern North America↗

USGS2018

The HayWired earthquake scenario—We can outsmart disaster

The HayWired earthquake scenario, led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), anticipates the impacts of a hypothetical magnitude-7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The fault is along the east side of California’s San Francisco Bay and is among the most active and dangerous in the United States, because it runs through a densely urbanized and interconnected region. One way to learn about a large earthquake without experiencing it is to conduct a scientifically realistic scenario. The USGS and its partners in the HayWired Coalition and the HayWired Campaign are working to energize residents and businesses to engage in ongoing and new efforts to prepare the region for such a future earthquake.

California↗

USGS2021

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Societal Consequences

The HayWired earthquake scenario, led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), anticipates the impacts of a hypothetical moment magnitude 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The fault runs along the east side of California’s San Francisco Bay and is among the most active and dangerous in the United States, passing through a densely urbanized and interconnected region. A scientifically realistic scenario is one way to learn from a large earthquake before one occurs in the bay region. The USGS and its partners in the HayWired Coalition are working to energize residents and businesses to engage in new and ongoing efforts to prepare the region for such a future earthquake.

California↗

USGS2000

Log and data from a trench across the Hubbell Spring Fault Zone, Bernalillo County, New Mexico

This report contains field and laboratory data resulting from a trench study of the Hubbell Spring fault zone near Albuquerque, New Mexico. This trench was excavated in September, 1997, as part of earthquake hazards investigations of Quaternary faults in the Albuquerque metropolitan area. The trench was excavated across the youngest of several fault strands near the northern end of the Hubbell Spring fault zone. The site is located on Pueblo of Isleta tribal lands, approximately 1 km south of the southern boundary of Kirtland Air Force Base. Thus the paleoearthquake data derived from investigations at the Hubbell Spring site will be useful in assessing potential earthquake hazards in Isleta Pueblo, Kirtland Air Force Base/Sandia National Laboratories, and the Albuquerque metropolitan area. The purpose of this report is to present a detailed trench log, a scarp profile, soils data (table 1), magnetic susceptibility data (table 2), luminescence and uranium-series ages (tables 3 and 4), and detailed unit descriptions (table 5) obtained in this investigation. S.F. Personius had primary responsibility for siting, excavating, describing, and interpreting the trench; S.A. Mahan did the luminescence dating, and James B. Paces did the uranium-series dating. M.C. Eppes and D.W. Love assisted with trench logging and mapping; and M.C. Eppes, D.K. Mitchell, and A. Murphy did the soils analyses.

New Mexico↗

USGS2006

Subsurface structure of the East Bay Plain ground-water basin: San Francisco Bay to the Hayward fault, Alameda County, California

The area of California between the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, Santa Clara Valley, and the Diablo Ranges (East Bay Hills), commonly referred to as the 'East Bay', contains the East Bay Plain and Niles Cone ground-water basins. The area has a population of 1.46 million (2003 US Census), largely distributed among several cities, including Alameda, Berkeley, Fremont, Hayward, Newark, Oakland, San Leandro, San Lorenzo, and Union City. Major known tectonic structures in the East Bay area include the Hayward Fault and the Diablo Range to the east and a relatively deep sedimentary basin known as the San Leandro Basin beneath the eastern part of the bay. Known active faults, such as the Hayward, Calaveras, and San Andreas pose significant earthquake hazards to the region, and these and related faults also affect ground-water flow in the San Francisco Bay area. Because most of the valley comprising the San Francisco Bay area is covered by Holocene alluvium or water at the surface, our knowledge of the existence and locations of such faults, their potential hazards, and their effects on ground-water flow within the alluvial basins is incomplete. To better understand the subsurface stratigraphy and structures and their effects on ground-water and earthquake hazards, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the East Bay Municipal Utility District (EBMUD), acquired a series of high-resolution seismic reflection and refraction profiles across the East Bay Plain near San Leandro in June 2002. In this report, we present results of the seismic imaging investigations, with emphasis on ground water.

California↗

USGS2014

Global surface displacement data for assessing variability of displacement at a point on a fault

This report presents a global dataset of site-specific surface-displacement data on faults. We have compiled estimates of successive displacements attributed to individual earthquakes, mainly paleoearthquakes, at sites where two or more events have been documented, as a basis for analyzing inter-event variability in surface displacement on continental faults. An earlier version of this composite dataset was used in a recent study relating the variability of surface displacement at a point to the magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes on faults, and to hazard from fault rupture (Hecker and others, 2013). The purpose of this follow-on report is to provide potential data users with an updated comprehensive dataset, largely complete through 2010 for studies in English-language publications, as well as in some unpublished reports and abstract volumes.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1975

A model for earthquakes near Palisades Reservoir, southeast Idaho

The Palisades Reservoir seems to be triggering earthquakes: epicenters are concentrated near the reservoir, and quakes are concentrated in spring, when the reservoir level is highest or is rising most rapidly, and in fall, when the level is lowest. Both spring and fall quakes appear to be triggered by minor local stresses superposed on regional tectonic stresses; faulting is postulated to occur when the effective normal stress across a fault is decreased by a local increase in pore-fluid pressure. The spring quakes tend to occur when the reservoir level suddenly rises: increased pore pressure pushes apart the walls of the graben flooded by the reservoir, thus decreasing the effective normal stress across faults in the graben. The fall quakes tend to occur when reservoir level is lowest: water that gradually infiltrated poorly permeable (fault-gouge?) zones during high reservoir stands is then under anomalously high pressure, which decreases the effective normal stress across faults in the poorly permeable zones.

Idaho↗

USGS1998

Map and data for Quaternary faults and folds in New Mexico

The "World Map of Major Active Faults" Task Group is compiling a series of digital maps for the United States and other countries in the Western Hemisphere that show the locations, ages, and activity rates of major earthquake-related features such as faults and fault-related folds; the companion database includes published information on these seismogenic features. The Western Hemisphere effort is sponsored by International Lithosphere Program (ILP) Task Group H-2, whereas the effort to compile a new map and database for the United States is funded by the Earthquake Reduction Program (ERP) through the U.S. Geological Survey. The maps and accompanying databases represent a key contribution to the new Global Seismic Hazards Assessment Program (ILP Task Group II-O) for the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. This compilation, which describes evidence for surface faulting and folding in New Mexico, is the third of many similar State and regional compilations that are planned for the U.S. The compilation for West Texas is available as U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 96-002 (Collins and others, 1996 #993) and the compilation for Montana will be released as a Montana Bureau of Mines product (Haller and others, in press #1750).

New Mexico↗

USGS2013

Paleoseismology of a possible fault scarp in Wenas Valley, central Washington

In October 2009, two trenches excavated across an 11-kilometer-long scarp at Wenas Valley in central Washington exposed evidence for late Quaternary deformation. Lidar imagery of the Wenas Valley illuminated the west-northwest-trending, 2- to 8-meter-high scarp as it bisected alluvial fans developed at the mouths of canyons along the south side of Umtanum Ridge. The alignment of the scarp and aeromagnetic lineaments suggested that the scarp may be a product of and controlled by the same tectonic structure that produced the magnetic lineaments. Several large landslides mapped in the area demonstrated the potential for large mass-wasting events in the area. In order to test whether the scarp was the result of an earthquake-generated surface rupture or a landslide, trenches were excavated at Hessler Flats and McCabe Place. The profiles of bedrock and soil stratigraphy that underlie the scarp in each trench were photographed, mapped, and described, and a sequence of depositional and deformational events established for each trench. The McCabe Place trench exposed a sequence of volcaniclastic deposits overlain by soils and alluvial deposits separated by three unconformities. Six normal faults and two possible reverse faults deformed the exposed strata. Crosscutting relations indicated that up to five earthquakes occurred on a blind reverse fault, and a microprobe analysis of lapilli suggested that the earliest faulting occurred after 47,000 years before present. The Hessler Flat trench exposure revealed weathered bedrock that abuts loess and colluvium deposits and is overlain by soil, an upper sequence of loess, and colluvium. The latter two units bury a distinctive paloesol.

Washington↗

USGS1975

A model for earthquakes near Palisades Reservoir, southeast Idaho

The Palisades Reservoir seems to be triggering earthquakes: epicenters are concentrated near the reservoir, and quakes are concentrated in spring, when the reservoir level is highest or is rising most rapidly, and in fall, when the level is lowest. Both spring and fall quakes appear to be triggered by minor local stresses superposed on regional tectonic stresses; faulting is postulated to occur when the effective normal stress across a fault is decreased by a local increase in pore-fluid pressure. The spring quakes tend to occur when the reservoir level suddenly rises: increased pore pressure pushes apart the walls of the graben flooded by the reservoir, thus decreasing the effective normal stress across faults in the graben. The fall quakes tend to occur when the reservoir level is lowest: water that gradually infiltrated poorly permeable (fault-gouge?) zones during high reservoir stands is then under anomalously high pressure, which decreases the effective normal stress across faults in the poorly permeable zones.

Idaho↗

USGS2008

Status and needs for seismic instrumentation of structures along the Hayward fault

The inventory of structures in heavily urbanized communities within the greater San Francisco (SF) Bay area that will experience strong ground motions from the rupture of the Hayward Fault includes a variety of types of recent and older structures built with a variety of materials and to different code standards. Those who remember the effects of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake on structures in the San Francisco Bay area also remember the collapse of one upper-deck segment of the Bay Bridge that halted transportation for approximately five weeks. In order to understand how these structures respond to earthquake motions and to improve building practices to resist these strong motions it is imperative that owners of these structures as well as governmental organizations acquire shaking response data from instrumented (or yet to be instrumented structures) during the forecast events. Within California, such data are acquired mainly by California Geological Survey and the United States Geological Survey. A small number of private owners contribute to this effort. The inventory of existing instrumented structures is much less than 0.1% of the total, and thus statistically it is not sufficient. For example, some of the existing important regular or lifeline structures are not instrumented(e.g. Bart Trans-Bay Tunnel, many segments of the Bart elevated structures in the proximity of the Hayward Fault, the yet to be completed eastern part of San Francisco Bay Bridge, Hetch-Hetchy pipeline system crossing the Hayward Fault)even though attempts and proposals have been developed to do so in the past. This paper presents a critical assessment of the status quo and the future needs for instrumentation of structures in the greater SF Bay area that includes the Hayward Fault. There are many new attempts and successes in instrumentation of structures in this region. Two successful examples are provided here, but more needs to be done. The paper does not present new research results; hence, it should be considered to be a “tutorial” paper.

California↗