Geology topics

Faults & earthquakes

Explore USGS earthquake and fault publications. Search fault names, locations and seismic hazards; follow the original report for maps, methods and publication context.

Follow this topic with RSS

At least 973 records · Page 54Linked to original sources

USGS2022

Complex magmatic-tectonic interactions during the 2020 Makushin Volcano, Alaska, earthquake swarm

On June 15, 2020, at 21:16 UTC, a locally-felt earthquake of magnitude 4.2 struck Unalaska Island, Alaska, ∼15 km west of the town of Unalaska and the large fishing port of Dutch Harbor. The event was followed by a M4.1 earthquake at 00:34 UTC and several M3+ aftershocks, initiating a prolific sequence with hundreds of earthquakes recorded into late December. The earthquakes all locate about 12 km southeast of the summit of Makushin Volcano at 7 to 10 km depth. To date, no eruptive activity or other surface changes have been observed at the volcano in webcam images, GPS or InSAR. Seismic bursts close to volcanoes are often associated with the onset of unrest that can lead to eruption. However, determining whether seismicity reflects magmatic rather than tectonic stresses is often challenging, although critical for hazard assessments and risk management strategies. To investigate the triggering mechanisms of the recent Makushin seismicity, we integrate information from space-time patterns of the earthquake hypocenters with their fault-plane solutions. We relocate the swarm events using double-difference relocation techniques and a 3D velocity model and find that the earthquakes, although they seem to follow two predominant orientations (NW-SE and SW-NE), do not show clear clustering into preferred alignments. Similarly, we do not observe pronounced migration in time and space. Fault-plane solutions (FPS) for all but one M2.5+ earthquakes have P-axis orientations consistent with subhorizontal NW-SE oriented regional maximum compression, whereas many of the lower-magnitude earthquakes have P-axes perpendicular to regional maximum compression. This provides evidence for the presence of a local stress field likely induced by magma intrusion. Results from Coulomb stress modeling are also consistent with dike inflation modulated by stresses induced by the M4+ earthquakes. The seismic swarm is thus likely linked to a superposition of driving stresses from both magmatic and tectonic processes on pre-existing faults. The case of the 2020 Makushin swarm, with its unusual characteristics, challenges traditional swarm classification schemes and suggests that a reconsideration of the definition of seismic swarms as having the maximum magnitude event in the middle of the swarm is warranted.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Frictional properties and 3-D stress analysis of the southern Alpine Fault, New Zealand

New Zealand's Alpine Fault (AF) ruptures quasi-periodically in large-magnitude earthquakes. Paleoseismological evidence suggests that about half of all recognized AF earthquakes terminated at the boundary between the Central and South Westland sections of the fault. There, fault geometry and the polarity of uplift change. The South Westland AF exhibits oblique-normal fault motion on a structure oriented 052°/82°SE that, for at least 35 km along strike, contains saponite-rich principal slip zone gouges. New hydrothermal friction experiments reveal that the saponite fault gouge is frictionally weak, exhibiting friction coefficients between μ = 0.12 and μ = 0.16 for a range of temperatures ( T = 25–210 °C) and effective normal stresses ( σ n ' = 31.2–93.6 MPa). The saponite gouge is rate-strengthening in all velocity steps performed at velocities between 0.01 and 3.0 μm/s, behavior conducive to aseismic creep. A three-dimensional stress analysis shows that the South Westland AF is favorably oriented with respect to the regional stress field for slip within the frictionally weak saponite fault gouge. Geometrically, the fault is severely misoriented for slip in any fault-forming materials with friction coefficients exceeding μ ∼0.5. The combination of weak gouges prone to aseismic creep, strong asperities , and low resolved shear stress may impede earthquake rupture propagation along the South Westland Alpine Fault.

Journal of Structural Geology↗

USGS2008

Probabilistic seismic hazard in the San Francisco Bay area based on a simplified viscoelastic cycle model of fault interactions

We construct a viscoelastic cycle model of plate boundary deformation that includes the effect of time-dependent interseismic strain accumulation, coseismic strain release, and viscoelastic relaxation of the substrate beneath the seismogenic crust. For a given fault system, time-averaged stress changes at any point (not on a fault) are constrained to zero; that is, kinematic consistency is enforced for the fault system. The dates of last rupture, mean recurrence times, and the slip distributions of the (assumed) repeating ruptures are key inputs into the viscoelastic cycle model. This simple formulation allows construction of stress evolution at all points in the plate boundary zone for purposes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Stress evolution is combined with a Coulomb failure stress threshold at representative points on the fault segments to estimate the times of their respective future ruptures. In our PSHA we consider uncertainties in a four-dimensional parameter space: the rupture peridocities, slip distributions, time of last earthquake (for prehistoric ruptures) and Coulomb failure stress thresholds. We apply this methodology to the San Francisco Bay region using a recently determined fault chronology of area faults. Assuming single-segment rupture scenarios, we find that fature rupture probabilities of area faults in the coming decades are the highest for the southern Hayward, Rodgers Creek, and northern Calaveras faults. This conclusion is qualitatively similar to that of Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, but the probabilities derived here are significantly higher. Given that fault rupture probabilities are highly model-dependent, no single model should be used to assess to time-dependent rupture probabilities. We suggest that several models, including the present one, be used in a comprehensive PSHA methodology, as was done by Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2021

Quaternary reelfoot fault deformation in the Obion River Valley, Tennessee, USA

Blind reverse faults are challenging to detect, and earthquake records can be elusive because deep fault slip does not break the surface along readily recognized scarps. The blind Reelfoot fault in the New Madrid seismic zone in the central United States has been the subject of extensive prior investigation; however, the extent of slip at the southern portion of the fault remains unconstrained. In this study, we use lidar to map terraces and lacustrine landforms in the Obion River valley and investigate apparent broad folding resulting from slip on the buried Reelfoot fault. We compare remote surface mapping results with three auger boreholes in the ∼24 ka Finley terrace and interpret apparent warping as due to tectonic folding and not stratigraphic thickening. We combine our results with historical records of coseismic lake formation that indicate surface deformation dammed the Obion River in the 1812 CE earthquake. Older terraces (deposited at least 35–55 ka) record progressive fold scarps ≥1, ≥2, and ≥8 m high indicating a long record of earthquakes predating the existing paleoseismic record. Broad, distributed folding above the Reelfoot fault into the Obion River valley is consistent with a deep active fault tip along the southern reaches of the fault. Our analyses indicate the entire length of the fault (≥70 km) is capable of rupture and is more consistent with longer rupture scenarios.

Tennessee↗

USGS1998

Stress transferred by the 1995 Mw = 6.9 Kobe, Japan, shock: Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities

The Kobe earthquake struck at the edge of the densely populated Osaka-Kyoto corridor in southwest Japan. We investigate how the earthquake transferred stress to nearby faults, altering their proximity to failure and thus changing earthquake probabilities. We find that relative to the pre-Kobe seismicity, Kobe aftershocks were concentrated in regions of calculated Coulomb stress increase and less common in regions of stress decrease. We quantify this relationship by forming the spatial correlation between the seismicity rate change and the Coulomb stress change. The correlation is significant for stress changes greater than 0.2–1.0 bars (0.02–0.1 MPa), and the nonlinear dependence of seismicity rate change on stress change is compatible with a state- and rate-dependent formulation for earthquake occurrence. We extend this analysis to future mainshocks by resolving the stress changes on major faults within 100 km of Kobe and calculating the change in probability caused by these stress changes. Transient effects of the stress changes are incorporated by the state-dependent constitutive relation, which amplifies the permanent stress changes during the aftershock period. Earthquake probability framed in this manner is highly time-dependent, much more so than is assumed in current practice. Because the probabilities depend on several poorly known parameters of the major faults, we estimate uncertainties of the probabilities by Monte Carlo simulation. This enables us to include uncertainties on the elapsed time since the last earthquake, the repeat time and its variability, and the period of aftershock decay. We estimate that a calculated 3-bar (0.3-MPa) stress increase on the eastern section of the Arima-Takatsuki Tectonic Line (ATTL) near Kyoto causes fivefold increase in the 30-year probability of a subsequent large earthquake near Kyoto; a 2-bar (0.2-MPa) stress decrease on the western section of the ATTL results in a reduction in probability by a factor of 140 to 2000. The probability of a M w = 6.9 earthquake within 50 km of Osaka during 1997–2007 is estimated to have risen from 5–6% before the Kobe earthquake to 7–11% afterward; during 1997–2027, it is estimated to have risen from 14–16% before Kobe to 16–22%.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2004

Near-source ground motions from simulations of sustained intersonic and supersonic fault ruptures

We examine the long-period near-source ground motions from simulations of M 7.4 events on a strike-slip fault using kinematic ruptures with rupture speeds that range from subshear speeds through intersonic speeds to supersonic speeds. The strong along-strike shear-wave directivity present in scenarios with subshear rupture speeds disappears in the scenarios with ruptures propagating faster than the shear-wave speed. Furthermore, the maximum horizontal displacements and velocities rotate from generally fault-perpendicular orientations at subshear rupture speeds to generally fault-parallel orientations at supersonic rupture speeds. For rupture speeds just above the shear-wave speed, the orientations are spatially heterogeneous as a result of the random nature of our assumed slip model. At locations within a few kilometers of the rupture, the time histories of the polarization of the horizontal motion provide a better diagnostic with which to gauge the rupture speed than the orientation of the peak motion. Subshear ruptures are associated with significant fault-perpendicular motion before fault-parallel motion close to the fault; supershear ruptures are associated with fault-perpendicular motion after significant fault-parallel motion. Consistent with previous studies, we do not find evidence for prolonged supershear rupture in the long-period (>2 sec) ground motions from the 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake. However, we are unable to resolve the issue of whether a limited portion of the rupture (approximately 10 km in length) propagated faster than the shear-wave speed. Additionally, a recording from the 2002 Denali fault earthquake does appear to be qualitatively consistent with locally supershear rupture. Stronger evidence for supershear rupture in earthquakes may require very dense station coverage in order to capture these potentially distinguishing traits.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2009

Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 2 (UCERF 2)

The 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2007) presents the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2). This model comprises a time-independent (Poisson-process) earthquake rate model, developed jointly with the National Seismic Hazard Mapping Program and a time-dependent earthquake-probability model, based on recent earthquake rates and stress-renewal statistics conditioned on the date of last event. The models were developed from updated statewide earthquake catalogs and fault deformation databases using a uniform methodology across all regions and implemented in the modular, extensible Open Seismic Hazard Analysis framework. The rate model satisfies integrating measures of deformation across the plate-boundary zone and is consistent with historical seismicity data. An overprediction of earthquake rates found at intermediate magnitudes (6.5 ??? M ???7.0) in previous models has been reduced to within the 95% confidence bounds of the historical earthquake catalog. A logic tree with 480 branches represents the epistemic uncertainties of the full time-dependent model. The mean UCERF 2 time-dependent probability of one or more M ???6.7 earthquakes in the California region during the next 30 yr is 99.7%; this probability decreases to 46% for M ???7.5 and to 4.5% for M ???8.0. These probabilities do not include the Cascadia subduction zone, largely north of California, for which the estimated 30 yr, M ???8.0 time-dependent probability is 10%. The M ???6.7 probabilities on major strike-slip faults are consistent with the WGCEP (2003) study in the San Francisco Bay Area and the WGCEP (1995) study in southern California, except for significantly lower estimates along the San Jacinto and Elsinore faults, owing to provisions for larger multisegment ruptures. Important model limitations are discussed.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2013

Low footwall accelerations and variable surface rupture behavior on the Fort Sage Mountains fault, northeast California

The Fort Sage Mountains fault zone is a normal fault in the Walker Lane of the western Basin and Range that produced a small surface rupture (<20 cm) during an M L 5.6 earthquake in 1950. We investigate the paleoseismic history of the Fort Sage fault and find evidence for two paleoearthquakes with surface displacements much larger than those observed in 1950. Rupture of the Fort Sage fault ∼5.6 ka resulted in surface displacements of at least 0.8–1.5 m, implying earthquake moment magnitudes (M w ) of 6.7–7.1. An older rupture at ∼20.5 ka displaced the ground at least 1.5 m, implying an earthquake of M w 6.8–7.1. A field of precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) is located less than 1 km from the surface‐rupture trace of this Holocene‐active normal fault. Ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) predict peak ground accelerations (PGAs) of 0.2–0.3g for the 1950 rupture and 0.3–0.5g for the ∼5.6 ka paleoearthquake one kilometer from the fault‐surface trace, yet field tests indicate that the Fort Sage PBRs will be toppled by PGAs between 0.1–0.3g. We discuss the paleoseismic history of the Fort Sage fault in the context of the nearby PBRs, GMPEs, and probabilistic seismic hazard maps for extensional regimes. If the Fort Sage PBRs are older than the mid‐Holocene rupture on the Fort Sage fault zone, this implies that current GMPEs may overestimate near‐fault footwall ground motions at this site.

California↗

USGS2006

Seismic constraints and coulomb stress changes of a blind thrust fault system, 2: Northridge, California

We review seismicity, surface faulting, and Coulomb stress changes associated with the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake. All of the observed surface faulting is shallow, extending meters to tens of meters below the surface. Relocated aftershocks reveal no seismicity shallower than 2 km depth. Although many of the aftershocks lie along the thrust fault and its up-dip extension, there are also a significant number of aftershocks in the core of the gentle anticline above the thrust, and elsewhere on the up-thrown block. These aftershocks may be associated with secondary ramp thrusts or flexural slip faults at a depth of 2-4 km. The geological structures typically associated with a blind thrust fault, such as anticlinal uplift and an associated syncline, are obscured and complicated by surface thrust faults associated with the San Fernando fault that overly the Northridge structures. Thus the relationship of the geological structure and topography to the underlying thrust fault is much more complex for Northridge than it is for the 1983 Coalinga, California, earthquake. We show from a Coulomb stress analysis that secondary surface faulting, diffuse aftershocks, and triggered sequences of moderate-sized mainshocks, are expected features of moderate-sized blind thrust earthquakes.

California↗

USGS1972

Reconnaissance engineering geology of the Haines area, Alaska, with emphasis on evaluation of earthquake and other geologic hazards

The Alaska earthquake of March 27, 1964, brought into sharp focus the need for engineering geologic studies in urban areas. Study of the Haines area constitutes an integral part of an overall program to evaluate earthquake and other geologic hazards in most of the larger Alaska coastal communities. The evaluations of geologic hazards that follow, although based only upon reconnaissance studies and, therefore, subject to revision, will provide broad guidelines useful in city and land-use planning. It is hoped that the knowledge gained will result in new facilities being built in the best possible geologic environments and being designed so as to minimize future loss of life and property damage. Haines, which is in the northern part of southeastern Alaska approximately 75 miles northwest of Juneau, had a population, of about 700 people in 1970. It is built at the northern end of the Chilkat Peninsula and lies within the Coast Mountains of the Pacific Mountain system. The climate is predominantly marine and is characterized by mild winters and cool summers. The mapped area described in this report comprises about 17 square miles of land; deep fiords constitute most of the remaining mapped area that is evaluated in this study. The Haines area was covered by glacier ice at least once and probably several times during the Pleistocene Epoch. The presence of emergent marine deposits, several hundred feet above sea level, demonstrates that the land has been uplifted relative to sea level since the last major deglaciation of the region about 10,000 years ago. The rate of relative uplift of the land at Haines during the past 39 years is 2.26 cm per year. Most or all of this uplift appears to be due to rebound as a result of deglaciation. Both bedrock and surficial deposits are present in the area. Metamorphic and igneous rocks constitute the exposed bedrock. The metamorphic rocks consist of metabasalt of Mesozoic age and pyroxenite of probable early middle Cretaceous age. The igneous rocks consist of diorite and quartz diorite (tonalite) of Cretaceous age. Sedimentary rocks of Tertiary age may be present in the mapped area but are not exposed. The surficial deposits of Quaternary age,-have been divided into the following map units on the basis of time Of deposition, mode of origin, and grain size: (1) undifferentiated drift deposits, (2) outwash and Ice-contact deposits; (3) elevated fine-grained marine deposits, (4) elevated shore and delta deposits, (5) alluvial fan deposits, (6) colluvial deposits, (7) modern beach deposits, (8) Chilkat River flood-plain and delta deposits, and (9) manmade fill. Offshore deposits are described but are not mapped. Southeastern Alaska lies within the tectonically active belt that rims the northern Pacific Basin and has been active since at least early Paleozoic time. The outcrop pattern is the result of late Mesozoic and Tertiary deformational, metamorphic, and intrusive events. Large-scale faulting has been common. The two most prominent inferred fault systems in southeastern Alaska and surrounding regions are: (1) The Denali fault system and (2) the Fairweather-Queen Charlotte Islands fault system. In the general area of Haines, rocks of Mesozoic age northeast of Chilkat River have a simple monoclinal structure. Paleozoic-Mesozoic rocks southwest of Chilkat River are gently to rather complexly folded. Several major and numerous minor faults probably transect the general area of Haines but their exact location and character can only be inferred because their traces are coincident to the long axes of fiords and river valleys, where they are concealed by water or by valley-floor deposits. Inferred faults in or near the Haines mapped area are: (1) Chilkat River fault, (2) Chilkoot fault, (3) Takhin fault, and (4) faults in the saddle area at Haines. Southeastern Alaska lies in one of the two most seismically active zones in Alaska, a State where 6 percent of the world's shallow earthqua

Open-File Report↗

USGS2020

EERI earthquake reconnaissance report: 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence

The Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence began the morning of 4 July 2019 with an M6.4 earthquake at 10:33 a.m., closely following several small foreshocks. The epicenter of this event was roughly 11 miles (18 km) east-northeast of Ridgecrest (Figure 1) within the Naval Air Weapons Station China Lake (NAWS-CL). Seismic and geologic data established that the M6.4 earthquake occurred primarily along a steeply dipping northeast-trending strike-slip fault with left-lateral slip. This earthquake and preliminary reports of damage in Ridgecrest and Trona and associated ground cracking triggered a response by earthquake scientists and engineers throughout the region. A California Earthquake Clearinghouse was established in Ridgecrest to help coordinate the scientific response effort and to share data.

California↗

USGS2023

Microscale spatial variations in coseismic temperature rise on hematite fault mirrors in the Wasatch fault damage zone

Coseismic temperature rise activates fault dynamic weakening that promotes earthquake rupture propagation. The spatial scales over which peak temperatures vary on slip surfaces are challenging to identify in the rock record. We present microstructural observations and electron backscatter diffraction data from three small-displacement hematite-coated fault mirrors (FMs) in the Wasatch fault damage zone, Utah, to evaluate relations between fault properties, strain localization, temperature rise, and weakening mechanisms during FM development. Millimeter- to cm-thick, matrix-supported, hematite-cemented breccia is cut by ∼25–200 μm-thick, texturally heterogeneous veins that form the hematite FM volume (FMV). Grain morphologies and textures vary with FMV thickness over μm to mm lengthscales. Cataclasite grades to ultracataclasite where FMV thickness is greatest. Thinner FMVs and geometric asperities are characterized by particles with subgrains, serrated grain boundaries, and(or) low-strain polygonal grains that increase in size with proximity to the FM surface. Comparison to prior hematite deformation experiments suggests FM temperatures broadly range from ≥400°C to ≥800–1100°C, compatible with observed coeval brittle and plastic deformation mechanisms, over sub-mm scales on individual slip surfaces during seismic slip. We present a model of FM development by episodic hematite precipitation, fault reactivation, and strain localization, where the thickness of hematite veins controls the width of the deforming zones during subsequent fault slip, facilitating temperature rise and thermally activated weakening. Our data document intrasample coseismic temperatures, resultant deformation and dynamic weakening mechanisms, and the length scales over which these vary on slip surfaces.

Utah↗

USGS2001

Earthquake triggering by seismic waves following the landers and hector mine earthquakes

The proximity and similarity of the 1992, magnitude 7.3 Landers and 1999, magnitude 7.1 Hector Mine earthquakes in California permit testing of earthquake triggering hypotheses not previously possible. The Hector Mine earthquake confirmed inferences that transient, oscillatory 'dynamic' deformations radiated as seismic waves can trigger seismicity rate increases, as proposed for the Landers earthquake1-6. Here we quantify the spatial and temporal patterns of the seismicity rate changes7. The seismicity rate increase was to the north for the Landers earthquake and primarily to the south for the Hector Mine earthquake. We suggest that rupture directivity results in elevated dynamic deformations north and south of the Landers and Hector Mine faults, respectively, as evident in the asymmetry of the recorded seismic velocity fields. Both dynamic and static stress changes seem important for triggering in the near field with dynamic stress changes dominating at greater distances. Peak seismic velocities recorded for each earthquake suggest the existence of, and place bounds on, dynamic triggering thresholds. These thresholds vary from a few tenths to a few MPa in most places, depend on local conditions, and exceed inferred static thresholds by more than an order of magnitude. At some sites, the onset of triggering was delayed until after the dynamic deformations subsided. Physical mechanisms consistent with all these observations may be similar to those that give rise to liquefaction or cyclic fatigue.

Nature↗

USGS2026

ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System performance during the Mw 7.0 offshore Cape Mendocino earthquake

The 5 December 2024 M w 7.0 Offshore Cape Mendocino earthquake was a challenging test of the U.S. West Coast ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system due to its offshore epicenter and limited near‐source station coverage. We analyzed real‐time performance of all components of the ShakeAlert system, including the seismic algorithms (earthquake point‐source integrated code [EPIC] and Finite‐fault rupture Detector [FinDer]), the geodetic algorithm (Geodetic First Approximation of Size and Time–peak ground displacement [GFAST‐PGD]), and network telemetry during the event. EPIC created the first solution for this earthquake 15 s after origin time with an initial magnitude estimate of M 5.6 and location error of 10 km from the Advanced National Seismic System epicenter. An early spurious trigger from station CE.89101 fortuitously maintained location accuracy and, correspondingly, magnitude accuracy. FinDer contributed its first solution at 18 s with a location estimate closer to the seismic network and produced two distinct rupture geometries, leading to minor fluctuations in estimated intensity contours. GFAST‐PGD did not meet alerting thresholds but otherwise performed as expected. Network latencies were <2 s for most stations, supporting the rapid detection of this earthquake by the system. Roughly five million alerts were delivered to cell phone devices in California and Oregon during this event. This was also the first instance of a school district‐wide ShakeAlert‐powered system being activated. Comparisons to recorded seismograms demonstrate that the maximum warning times before potentially damaging shaking (intensity 6+) were in the range of 5–55 s. Although the ShakeAlert system provided accurate solutions and useful alert delivery, this earthquake raised awareness of potential issues within the system, including the need for improved offshore location estimates, a combination of solutions from ShakeAlert servers, and handling of spurious triggers.

California↗

USGS2013

Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 3 (UCERF3): the time-independent model

In this report we present the time-independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time-averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes in California. The primary achievements have been to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multifault ruptures, both limitations of the previous model (UCERF2). The rates of all earthquakes are solved for simultaneously, and from a broader range of data, using a system-level "grand inversion" that is both conceptually simple and extensible. The inverse problem is large and underdetermined, so a range of models is sampled using an efficient simulated annealing algorithm. The approach is more derivative than prescriptive (for example, magnitude-frequency distributions are no longer assumed), so new analysis tools were developed for exploring solutions. Epistemic uncertainties were also accounted for using 1,440 alternative logic tree branches, necessitating access to supercomputers. The most influential uncertainties include alternative deformation models (fault slip rates), a new smoothed seismicity algorithm, alternative values for the total rate of M≥5 events, and different scaling relationships, virtually all of which are new. As a notable first, three deformation models are based on kinematically consistent inversions of geodetic and geologic data, also providing slip-rate constraints on faults previously excluded because of lack of geologic data. The grand inversion constitutes a system-level framework for testing hypotheses and balancing the influence of different experts. For example, we demonstrate serious challenges with the Gutenberg-Richter hypothesis for individual faults. UCERF3 is still an approximation of the system, however, and the range of models is limited (for example, constrained to stay close to UCERF2). Nevertheless, UCERF3 removes the apparent UCERF2 overprediction of M6.5–7 earthquake rates and also includes types of multifault ruptures seen in nature. Although UCERF3 fits the data better than UCERF2 overall, there may be areas that warrant further site-specific investigation. Supporting products may be of general interest, and we list key assumptions and avenues for future model improvements.

California↗

USGS1984

Stalking the next Parkfield earthquake in Central California

Looking southeast from Middle Mountain toward Gold Hill, it is a subtle furrow in the grassy knolls of the Cholame Valley of California's Coast Range. To geophysicists, this 19-mile section of the San Andreas fault midway between San Francisco and Los Angeles is the most well understood, most intensely monitored fault in the world. As such, it is also the most likely place for American earthquake researchers to become earthquake predictors. The present understanding of the fault has already prompted speculations that the next moderate Parkfield earthquake will strike in early 1988, give or take a few years. Perhaps more importnat, the next rupture of the Parkfield section of the fault could get out of hand and create a much larger earthquake.

California↗

USGS2013

Simulations of tremor-related creep reveal a weak crustal root of the San Andreas Fault

Deep aseismic roots of faults play a critical role in transferring tectonic loads to shallower, brittle crustal faults that rupture in large earthquakes. Yet, until the recent discovery of deep tremor and creep, direct inference of the physical properties of lower-crustal fault roots has remained elusive. Observations of tremor near Parkfield, CA provide the first evidence for present-day localized slip on the deep extension of the San Andreas Fault and triggered transient creep events. We develop numerical simulations of fault slip to show that the spatiotemporal evolution of triggered tremor near Parkfield is consistent with triggered fault creep governed by laboratory-derived friction laws between depths of 20–35 km on the fault. Simulated creep and observed tremor northwest of Parkfield nearly ceased for 20–30 days in response to small coseismic stress changes of order 10 4 Pa from the 2003 M6.5 San Simeon Earthquake. Simulated afterslip and observed tremor following the 2004 M6.0 Parkfield earthquake show a coseismically induced pulse of rapid creep and tremor lasting for 1 day followed by a longer 30 day period of sustained accelerated rates due to propagation of shallow afterslip into the lower crust. These creep responses require very low effective normal stress of ~1 MPa on the deep San Andreas Fault and near-neutral-stability frictional properties expected for gabbroic lower-crustal rock.

San Andreas Fault↗

USGS2013

Seismicity around Parkfield correlates with static shear stress changes following the 2003 M w 6.5 San Simeon earthquake

Earthquakes trigger other earthquakes, but the physical mechanism of the triggering is currently debated. Most studies of earthquake triggering rely on earthquakes listed in catalogs, which are known to be incomplete around the origin times of large earthquakes and therefore missing potentially triggered events. Here we apply a waveform matched-filter technique to systematically detect earthquakes along the Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault from 46 days before to 31 days after the nearby 2003 M w 6.5 San Simeon earthquake. After removing all possible false detections, we identify ~8 times more earthquakes than in the Northern California Seismic Network catalog. The newly identified events along the creeping section of the San Andreas Fault show a statistically significant decrease following the San Simeon main shock, which correlates well with the negative static stress changes (i.e., stress shadow) cast by the main shock. In comparison, the seismicity rate around Parkfield increased moderately where the static stress changes are positive. The seismicity rate changes correlate well with the static shear stress changes induced by the San Simeon main shock, suggesting a low friction in the seismogenic zone along the Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault.

California↗