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Faults & earthquakes

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USGS2021

A revised position for the primary strand of the Pleistocene-Holocene San Andreas fault in southern California

The San Andreas fault has the highest calculated time-dependent probability for large-magnitude earthquakes in southern California. However, where the fault is multistranded east of the Los Angeles metropolitan area, it has been uncertain which strand has the fastest slip rate and, therefore, which has the highest probability of a destructive earthquake. Reconstruction of offset Pleistocene-Holocene landforms dated using the uranium-thorium soil carbonate and beryllium-10 surface exposure techniques indicates slip rates of 24.1 ± 3 millimeter per year for the San Andreas fault, with 21.6 ± 2 and 2.5 ± 1 millimeters per year for the Mission Creek and Banning strands, respectively. These data establish the Mission Creek strand as the primary fault bounding the Pacific and North American plates at this latitude and imply that 6 to 9 meters of elastic strain has accumulated along the fault since the most recent surface-rupturing earthquake, highlighting the potential for large earthquakes along this strand.

California↗

USGS1997

Coseismic deformation during the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and range-front thrusting along the southwestern margin of the Santa Clara Valley, California

Damage patterns caused by the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake along the southwestern margin of the Santa Clara Valley, California, form three zones that coincide with mapped and inferred traces of range-front thrust faults northeast of the San Andreas fault. Damage in these zones was largely contractional, consistent with past displacement associated with these faults. The damage zones coincide with gravity and aeromagnetic anomalies; modeling of the anomalies defines a southwest-dipping thrust fault that places the Franciscan Complex over Cenozoic sedimentary rocks to minimum depths of 2 km. Diffuse Loma Prieta earthquake aftershocks encompass the downward projection of this modeled thrust to depths of 9 km. Our results indicate that in this region the potential for concentrated damage arising from either primary deformation along the thrust faults themselves or by sympathetic motion triggered by earthquakes on the San Andreas fault may be higher than previously recognized.

California↗

USGS2015

Geologic framework and evidence for neotectonism in the epicentral area of the 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake

The epicenters of the main shock and associated aftershocks of the 2011 moment magnitude, M w 5.8 Mineral, Virginia (USA), earthquake, and the updip projection of the possible fault plane that triggered the quakes, are contained in the areas of 2 adjoining 7.5′ quadrangles in the central Virginia Piedmont. These quadrangles have therefore been the focus of concentrated geologic study in the form of bedrock and surficial mapping and near-surface trenching in order to identify potential seismogenic structures. Bedrock mapping has outlined a series of northeast-southwest–trending lithologic belts that include the Ordovician Chopawamsic and Quantico Formations, the narrow neck of the Late Ordovician Ellisville pluton, and mélange zone III of the Mine Run Complex. The region was affected by at least two ductile deformational events, one in the early Paleozoic that was broadly synchronous with the intrusion of the pluton, and one later in the Paleozoic. The earlier deformation produced the Quantico synclinorium and other regional folds, and the later deformation produced faults with associated high-strain zones. Two of these faults have been trenched at their intersection along the east-dipping eastern contact of the Ellisville neck, near where the causative fault for the earthquake projects to the surface. The trenches have exposed abundant evidence of post-Paleozoic fracturing and faulting, including brecciated quartz-tourmaline veins, slickensided thrust and strike-slip faults, and clay-filled fractures. Fluvial and colluvial gravels that overlie these brittle structures have yielded optically stimulated luminescence ages ranging from ca. 27 to 10 ka. These structures are likely representative of surface features associated with Quaternary earthquakes in the Central Virginia seismic zone.

GSA Special Papers↗

USGS2001

A simple stick-slip and creep-slip model for repeating earthquakes and its implication for microearthquakes at Parkfield

If repeating earthquakes are represented by circular ruptures, have constant stress drops, and experience no aseismic slip, then their recurrence times should vary with seismic moment as tr ?? Mo1/3. In contrast, the observed variation for small, characteristic repeating earthquakes along a creeping segment of the San Andreas fault at Parkfield (Nadeau and Johnson, 1998) is much weaker. Also, the Parkfield repeating earthquakes have much longer recurrence intervals than expected if the static stress drop is 10 MPa and if the loading velocity VL is assumed equal to the geodetically inferred slip rate of the fault Vf. To resolve these discrepancies, previous studies have assumed no aseismic slip during the interseismic period, implying either high stress drop or VL ??? Vf. In this study, we show that a model that includes aseismic slip provides a plausible alternative explanation for the Parkfield repeating earthquakes. Our model of a repeating earthquake is a fixed-area fault patch that is allowed to continuously creep and strain harden until reaching a failure threshold stress. The strain hardening is represented by a linear coefficient C, which when much greater than the elastic loading stiffness k leads to relatively small interseismic slip (stick-slip). When C and k are of similar size creep-slip occurs, in which relatively large aseismic slip accrues prior to failure. Because fault-patch stiffness varies with patch radius, if C is independent of radius, then the model predicts that the relative amount of seismic to total slip increases with increasing radius or Mo, consistent with variations in slip required to explain the Parkfield data. The model predicts a weak variation in tr with Mo similar to the Parkfield data.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2010

Normal-faulting slip maxima and stress-drop variability: A geological perspective

We present an empirical estimate of maximum slip in continental normal-faulting earthquakes and present evidence that stress drop in intraplate extensional environments is dependent on fault maturity. A survey of reported slip in historical earthquakes globally and in latest Quaternary paleoearthquakes in the Western Cordillera of the United States indicates maximum vertical displacements as large as 6–6.5 m. A difference in the ratio of maximum-to-mean displacements between data sets of prehistoric and historical earthquakes, together with constraints on bias in estimates of mean paleodisplacement, suggest that applying a correction factor of 1.4±0.3 to the largest observed displacement along a paleorupture may provide a reasonable estimate of the maximum displacement. Adjusting the largest paleodisplacements in our regional data set (∼6 m) by a factor of 1.4 yields a possible upper-bound vertical displacement for the Western Cordillera of about 8.4 m, although a smaller correction factor may be more appropriate for the longest ruptures. Because maximum slip is highly localized along strike, if such large displacements occur, they are extremely rare. Static stress drop in surface-rupturing earthquakes in the Western Cordillera, as represented by maximum reported displacement as a fraction of modeled rupture length, appears to be larger on normal faults with low cumulative geologic displacement (<2 km) and larger in regions such as the Rocky Mountains, where immature, low-throw faults are concentrated. This conclusion is consistent with a growing recognition that structural development influences stress drop and indicates that this influence is significant enough to be evident among faults within a single intraplate environment.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

Long‐term time‐dependent probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time-independent model, published previously, renewal models are utilized to represent elastic-rebound-implied probabilities. A new methodology has been developed that solves applicability issues in the previous approach for un-segmented models. The new methodology also supports magnitude-dependent aperiodicity and accounts for the historic open interval on faults that lack a date-of-last-event constraint. Epistemic uncertainties are represented with a logic tree, producing 5,760 different forecasts. Results for a variety of evaluation metrics are presented, including logic-tree sensitivity analyses and comparisons to the previous model (UCERF2). For 30-year M≥6.7 probabilities, the most significant changes from UCERF2 are a threefold increase on the Calaveras fault and a threefold decrease on the San Jacinto fault. Such changes are due mostly to differences in the time-independent models (e.g., fault slip rates), with relaxation of segmentation and inclusion of multi-fault ruptures being particularly influential. In fact, some UCERF2 faults were simply too long to produce M 6.7 sized events given the segmentation assumptions in that study. Probability model differences are also influential, with the implied gains (relative to a Poisson model) being generally higher in UCERF3. Accounting for the historic open interval is one reason. Another is an effective 27% increase in the total elastic-rebound-model weight. The exact factors influencing differences between UCERF2 and UCERF3, as well as the relative importance of logic-tree branches, vary throughout the region, and depend on the evaluation metric of interest. For example, M≥6.7 probabilities may not be a good proxy for other hazard or loss measures. This sensitivity, coupled with the approximate nature of the model and known limitations, means the applicability of UCERF3 should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2016

Detailed mapping and rupture implications of the 1 km releasing bend in the Rodgers Creek Fault at Santa Rosa, northern California

Airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) topography reveals for the first time the trace of the Rodgers Creek fault (RCF) through the center of Santa Rosa, the largest city in the northern San Francisco Bay area. Vertical deformation of the Santa Rosa Creek floodplain expresses a composite pull‐apart basin beneath the urban cover that is part of a broader 1‐km‐wide right‐releasing bend in the fault. High‐resolution geophysical data illuminate subsurface conditions that may be responsible for the complex pattern of surface faulting, as well as for the distribution of seismicity and possibly for creep behavior. We identify a dense, magnetic basement body bounded by the RCF beneath Santa Rosa that we interpret as a strong asperity, likely part of a larger locked patch of the fault to the south. A local increase in frictional resistance associated with the basement body appears to explain (1) distributed fault‐normal extension above where the RCF intersects the body; (2) earthquake activity around the northern end of the body, notably the 1969 M L 5.6 and 5.7 events and aftershocks; and (3) creep rates on the RCF that are higher to the north of Santa Rosa than to the south. There is a significant probability of a major earthquake on the RCF in the coming decades, and earthquakes associated with the proposed asperity have the potential to release seismic energy into the Cotati basin beneath Santa Rosa, already known from damaging historical earthquakes to produce amplified ground shaking.

California↗

USGS2017

A synoptic view of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake‐producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long‐term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, constrained by stress renewal statistics, and short‐term (hours to years) probabilities of distributed seismicity, constrained by earthquake‐clustering statistics. Comprehensive datasets on both hazard scales have been integrated into the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3). UCERF3 is the first model to provide self‐consistent rupture probabilities over forecasting intervals from less than an hour to more than a century, and it is the first capable of evaluating the short‐term hazards that result from multievent sequences of complex faulting. This article gives an overview of UCERF3, illustrates the short‐term probabilities with aftershock scenarios, and draws some valuable scientific conclusions from the modeling results. In particular, seismic, geologic, and geodetic data, when combined in the UCERF3 framework, reject two types of fault‐based models: long‐term forecasts constrained to have local Gutenberg–Richter scaling, and short‐term forecasts that lack stress relaxation by elastic rebound.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2018

Spatiotemporal analysis of the Foreshock-Mainshock-Aftershock sequence of the 6 July 2017 M5.8 Lincoln, Montana, earthquake

A MW 5.8 earthquake occurred on 6 July 2017 at 12.2 km depth, 11 km southeast of Lincoln in west central Montana. No major damage or injuries were reported; however, the widely felt mainshock generated a prolific aftershock sequence with more than 1200 located events through the end of 2017. The Lincoln event is the latest in a series of moderate-to-large earthquakes that have affected western Montana. We characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of the sequence using matched filter detection and multiple-event relocation techniques. Moment tensor solutions and aftershock locations indicate faulting occurred on a 9-km-long NNE-striking, near-vertical, strike-slip fault antithetic to the Lewis and Clark Line, the main through-going fault system. Seismicity primarily occurs between 6 and 16 km depth, consistent with seismicity in the Intermountain Seismic Belt. We estimate a fault rupture area of ~64 km2 and ~30 cm of average fault displacement. We identified four foreshocks in the three days prior to, and 3005 aftershocks in the three weeks following the mainshock. The supplemented catalog frequency-magnitude distribution has a b-value of 0.79 and a minimum magnitude of completeness of 0.7. The overall decay rate is consistent with a modified Omori decay law p-value of 0.76 and c-value of 0.32. This event demonstrates that unmapped faults antithetic to major geologic structures play a role in accommodating regional strain in Western Montana and can host significant earthquakes

Montana↗

USGS2019

The current unlikely earthquake hiatus at California’s transform boundary paleoseismic sites

Paleoseismic and historical earthquake records used to quantify earthquake recurrence rates can also be used to test the likelihood of seismically quiescent periods. At principal paleoseismic sites in California on the San Andreas, San Jacinto, Elsinore, and Hayward faults, no ground‐rupturing earthquake has occurred in the last 100 yr, yet this interval is about three times the average interearthquake period for the ensemble of sites. We examine long paleoseismic records from these faults, as they carry most of the transform fault slip on the plate boundary, to see if the current hiatus has any precedent in the last 1000 yr. The selection of sites is designed to sample fault sections unlikely to have ruptured together, so their conditional probabilities of a hiatus can be combined as independent events. We find a 100‐yr hiatus is not predicted by common time‐dependent or time‐independent recurrence models. Paleoearthquake dating uncertainties can allow long open intervals at individual sites or subsets of sites, but do not explain the observed gap in the ensemble. After approximately removing redundancies in the full paleoearthquake record, the time‐independent probability of the current 100‐yr gap is of order 0.3%. This raises several questions. Do we live in a statistically exceptional time? Or does some wide‐scale effect modulate earthquake occurrence among sites over longer timescales? Finally, how should we understand seismic hazard estimates in California if the recurrence models on which they rely seem, at minimum, incomplete? Whether due to a statistical anomaly, some longer‐term modulation of earthquake occurrence, or another cause, our results emphasize that the hiatus of the last century has been exceptional.

California↗

USGS2022

Beyond the teleseism: Introducing regional seismic and geodetic data into routine USGS finite‐fault modeling

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) routinely produces finite‐fault models following significant earthquakes. These models are spatiotemporal estimates of coseismic slip critical to constraining downstream response products such as ShakeMap ground motion estimates, Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake for Response loss estimates, and ground failure assessments. Because large earthquakes can involve slip over tens to hundreds of kilometers, point‐source approximations are insufficient, and it is vital to rapidly assess the amount, timing, and location of slip along the fault. Initially, the USGS finite‐fault products were computed in the first several hours after a significant earthquake, using teleseismic body wave and surface wave observations. With only teleseismic waveforms, it is generally possible to obtain a reliable model for earthquakes of magnitude 7 and larger. Here, we detail newly implemented updates to NEIC’s modeling capabilities, specifically to allow joint modeling of local‐to‐regional strong‐motion accelerometer, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations in addition to teleseismic waveforms. We present joint inversion results for the 2015 M w ">

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2024

Evidence for low effective stress within the crust of the subducted Gorda plate from the 2022 December Mw 6.4 Ferndale earthquake sequence

Stress levels on and adjacent to megathrust faults at seismogenic depths remain a key but difficult to constrain parameter for assessing seismic hazard in subduction zones. Although strong ground motions have been observed to be generated from distinct, high-stress regions on the downdip end of the megathrust rupture areas in many great earthquakes, we lack direct constraints on the stress level in the lower seismogenic portion of the Cascadia megathrust. On 2022 December 20, a M w 6.4 strike-slip earthquake occurred near Ferndale, California in southern Cascadia and likely ruptured the Gorda slab crust in the lower seismogenic portion, providing an opportunity to assess the stress level in this region. Here, we relocate the Ferndale mainshock and the first two weeks of aftershocks using a high-resolution 3-D velocity model and estimate rupture dimensions, directivity, and stress drop for several M w 4-5 aftershocks and recent earthquakes. The aftershocks define a strike-slip fault in the slab crust striking ENE, consistent with the mainshock focal mechanism. The orientation of this fault is about 45 ° off the ideally oriented fault plane given the stress state in the slab. The aftershock zone is extensive and broad in the forward direction of the mainshock rupture but still constrained within the volume of high Vp/Vs within the slab crust. Our stress drop estimates are generally lower for M w 4-5 earthquakes located within the slab crust compared to those a few km deeper in the slab mantle. Combined, our results support a relatively low effective stress level in the vicinity of the megathrust in the lower portion of the seismogenic zone in southern Cascadia, likely due to elevated fluid pressures. Consequently, the ground motion in the onshore region above this low-stress seismogenic portion in southern Cascadia may not be as intense as that observed during great earthquakes in other subduction zones.

California↗

USGS2024

Are field observations of surface rupture useful? An example from the 2023 Mw 7.8 Pazarcık, Turkey (Türkiye), earthquake

Field investigations have long been an important component of the scientific response to surface‐faulting earthquakes. However, in light of advances in remote data and models, the question arises whether field‐based observations of surface rupture remain useful for understanding rupture processes and seismic hazards. We approach this question using a field‐based study of the central 2023 M w 7.8 Pazarcık, Turkey (Türkiye), earthquake rupture, at the intersection of the east Anatolian fault (EAF) and Narlı fault. Our field observations include the surface rupture expression and extent of the central EAF and northernmost Narlı fault in generally forested and steep terrain and 68 measurements of left‐lateral surface displacement. These data improve our understanding of the Pazarcık rupture complexity, resolve the surface geometry of the Narlı fault–EAF connection, and exhibit a clear (>2 m) change in surface displacement across this intersection zone that confirms remote‐based coseismic slip models. Our study shows that focusing field efforts in areas of obscured or low‐resolution remote data can yield essential data for refining rupture extent, documenting perishable on‐fault displacement, and improving postearthquake situational awareness. A comparison of similarly large‐magnitude continental surface‐rupturing earthquakes indicates that displacement uncertainties relate to a complex set of factors, including measurement methods, rupture complexity, and displacement magnitude. Our study validates the need for postearthquake field observations, which, when driven by clear motivating questions and knowledge of methodological strengths and limitations, provide high‐resolution rupture data that complement remote‐based models.

Pazarcık↗

USGS2016

Paleoseismology of the Denali fault system at the Schist Creek site, central Alaska

Two hand-dug trenches at the Schist Creek site on the Denali fault system in central Alaska exposed evidence of four surface-rupturing earthquakes on the basis of upward terminations of fault strands and at least one buried, scarp-derived colluvial wedge. Limited radiocarbon ages provide some constraints on times of the ruptures. The youngest rupture (PE1) likely occurred about 200–400 years ago, the penultimate rupture (PE2) is younger than 1,200 years old, the third event back (PE3) occurred between 1,200 and 2,700 years ago, and the oldest rupture (PE4) occurred more than 2,700 and less than 17,000 years ago. Evidence for a possible additional rupture (PE4?) is equivocal and probably is related to earthquake PE4. On the basis of a nearby measured slip rate of 9.4 ± 1.6 millimeters per year and the long interevent times between our documented ruptures, we believe that our paleoseismic record at this site is incomplete. We suspect one undocumented earthquake between PE1 and PE2 and one or perhaps two more earthquakes between PE2 and PE3. We found stratigraphic evidence in the trenches for only four or possibly five (PE4?) earthquakes, but the addition of two or three inferred earthquakes yields a record of eight possible surface ruptures at the Schist Creek site. Our interpretation of the paleoseismic history at the site is consistent with recurrence intervals of several hundred years on this section of the Denali fault system.

Alaska↗

USGS2008

What can we learn from the Wells, NV earthquake sequence about seismic hazard in the intermountain west?

The February 21, 2008 Wells, NV earthquake (M 6) was felt throughout eastern Nevada, southern Idaho, and western Utah. The town of Wells sustained significant damage to unreinforced masonry buildings. The earthquake occurred in a region of low seismic hazard with little seismicity, low geodetic strain rates, and few mapped faults. The peak horizontal ground acceleration predicted by the USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps is about 0.2 g at 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, with the contributions coming mostly from the Ruby Mountain fault and background seismicity (M5-7.0). The hazard model predicts that the probability of occurrence of an M>6 event within 50 km of Wells is about 15% in 100 years. Although the earthquake was inside the USArray Transportable Array network, the nearest on-scale recordings of ground motions from the mainshock were too distant to estimate accelerations in town. The University of Nevada Reno, the University of Utah, and the U.S. Geological Survey deployed portable instruments to capture the ground motions from aftershocks of this rare normal-faulting event. Shaking from a M 4.7 aftershock recorded on portable instruments at distances less than 10 km exceeded 0.3 g, and sustained accelerations above 0.1 g lasted for about 5 seconds. For a magnitude 5 earthquake at 10 km distance the NGA equations predict median peak ground accelerations about 0.1 g. Ground motions from normal faulting earthquakes are poorly represented in the ground motion prediction equations. We compare portable and Transportable Array ground-motion recordings with prediction equations. Advanced National Seismic System stations in Utah recorded ground motions 250 km from the mainshock of about 2% g. The maximum ground motion recorded in Salt Lake City was in the center of the basin. We analyze the spatial variability of ground motions (rock vs. soil) and the influence of the Salt Lake Basin in modifying the ground motions. We then compare this data with the September 28, 2004 Parkfield aftershocks to contrast the differences between strike-slip and normal ground motions.

Conference Paper↗

USGS1999

Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992-1997

Algorithms M8 and MSc (i.e., the Mendocino Scenario) were used in a real-time intermediate-term research prediction of the strongest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt. Predictions are made by M8 first. Then, the areas of alarm are reduced by MSc at the cost that some earthquakes are missed in the second approximation of prediction. In 1992-1997, five earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above occurred in the test area: all of them were predicted by M8 and MSc identified correctly the locations of four of them. The space-time volume of the alarms is 36% and 18%, correspondingly, when estimated with a normalized product measure of empirical distribution of epicenters and uniform time. The statistical significance of the achieved results is beyond 99% both for M8 and MSc. For magnitude 7.5 + , 10 out of 19 earthquakes were predicted by M8 in 40% and five were predicted by M8-MSc in 13% of the total volume considered. This implies a significance level of 81% for M8 and 92% for M8-MSc. The lower significance levels might result from a global change in seismic regime in 1993-1996, when the rate of the largest events has doubled and all of them become exclusively normal or reversed faults. The predictions are fully reproducible; the algorithms M8 and MSc in complete formal definitions were published before we started our experiment [Keilis-Borok, V.I., Kossobokov, V.G., 1990. Premonitory activation of seismic flow: Algorithm M8, Phys. Earth and Planet. Inter. 61, 73-83; Kossobokov, V.G., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Smith, S.W., 1990. Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 19763-19772; Healy, J.H., Kossobokov, V.G., Dewey, J.W., 1992. A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8. U.S. Geol. Surv. OFR 92-401]. M8 is available from the IASPEI Software Library [Healy, J.H., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Lee, W.H.K. (Eds.), 1997. Algorithms for Earthquake Statistics and Prediction, Vol. 6. IASPEI Software Library]. ?? 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors↗

USGS2012

Airborne LiDAR analysis and geochronology of faulted glacial moraines in the Tahoe-Sierra frontal fault zone reveal substantial seismic hazards in the Lake Tahoe region, California-Nevada USA

We integrated high-resolution bare-earth airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) imagery with field observations and modern geochronology to characterize the Tahoe-Sierra frontal fault zone, which forms the neotectonic boundary between the Sierra Nevada and the Basin and Range Province west of Lake Tahoe. The LiDAR imagery clearly delineates active normal faults that have displaced late Pleistocene glacial moraines and Holocene alluvium along 30 km of linear, right-stepping range front of the Tahoe-Sierra frontal fault zone. Herein, we illustrate and describe the tectonic geomorphology of faulted lateral moraines. We have developed new, three-dimensional modeling techniques that utilize the high-resolution LiDAR data to determine tectonic displacements of moraine crests and alluvium. The statistically robust displacement models combined with new ages of the displaced Tioga (20.8 ± 1.4 ka) and Tahoe (69.2 ± 4.8 ka; 73.2 ± 8.7 ka) moraines are used to estimate the minimum vertical separation rate at 17 sites along the Tahoe-Sierra frontal fault zone. Near the northern end of the study area, the minimum vertical separation rate is 1.5 ± 0.4 mm/yr, which represents a two- to threefold increase in estimates of seismic moment for the Lake Tahoe basin. From this study, we conclude that potential earthquake moment magnitudes (M w ) range from 6.3 ± 0.25 to 6.9 ± 0.25. A close spatial association of landslides and active faults suggests that landslides have been seismically triggered. Our study underscores that the Tahoe-Sierra frontal fault zone poses substantial seismic and landslide hazards.

California;Nevada↗

USGS2009

Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER): A System for Rapidly Determining the Impact of Earthquakes Worldwide

Within minutes of a significant earthquake anywhere on the globe, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system assesses its potential societal impact. PAGER automatically estimates the number of people exposed to severe ground shaking and the shaking intensity at affected cities. Accompanying maps of the epicentral region show the population distribution and estimated ground-shaking intensity. A regionally specific comment describes the inferred vulnerability of the regional building inventory and, when available, lists recent nearby earthquakes and their effects. PAGER's results are posted on the USGS Earthquake Program Web site (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/), consolidated in a concise one-page report, and sent in near real-time to emergency responders, government agencies, and the media. Both rapid and accurate results are obtained through manual and automatic updates of PAGER's content in the hours following significant earthquakes. These updates incorporate the most recent estimates of earthquake location, magnitude, faulting geometry, and first-hand accounts of shaking. PAGER relies on a rich set of earthquake analysis and assessment tools operated by the USGS and contributing Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional networks. A focused research effort is underway to extend PAGER's near real-time capabilities beyond population exposure to quantitative estimates of fatalities, injuries, and displaced population.

Open-File Report↗