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Faults & earthquakes

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USGS2003

Why earthquakes correlate weakly with the solid Earth tides: Effects of periodic stress on the rate and probability of earthquake occurrence

We provide an explanation why earthquake occurrence does not correlate well with the daily solid Earth tides. The explanation is derived from analysis of laboratory experiments in which faults are loaded to quasiperiodic failure by the combined action of a constant stressing rate, intended to simulate tectonic loading, and a small sinusoidal stress, analogous to the Earth tides. Event populations whose failure times correlate with the oscillating stress show two modes of response; the response mode depends on the stressing frequency. Correlation that is consistent with stress threshold failure models, e.g., Coulomb failure, results when the period of stress oscillation exceeds a characteristic time tn; the degree of correlation between failure time and the phase of the driving stress depends on the amplitude and frequency of the stress oscillation and on the stressing rate. When the period of the oscillating stress is less than tn, the correlation is not consistent with threshold failure models, and much higher stress amplitudes are required to induce detectable correlation with the oscillating stress. The physical interpretation of tn is the duration of failure nucleation. Behavior at the higher frequencies is consistent with a second-order dependence of the fault strength on sliding rate which determines the duration of nucleation and damps the response to stress change at frequencies greater than 1/tn. Simple extrapolation of these results to the Earth suggests a very weak correlation of earthquakes with the daily Earth tides, one that would require >13,000 earthquakes to detect. On the basis of our experiments and analysis, the absence of definitive daily triggering of earthquakes by the Earth tides requires that for earthquakes, tn exceeds the daily tidal period. The experiments suggest that the minimum typical duration of earthquake nucleation on the San Andreas fault system is ???1 year.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2022

A unified perspective of seismicity and fault coupling along the San Andreas Fault

The San Andreas Fault (SAF) showcases the breadth of possible earthquake sizes and occurrence behavior; in particular, the central SAF is a microcosm of such diversity. This section also exhibits the spectrum of fault coupling from locked to creeping. Here, we show that the observations of aseismic slip, temporal clustering of seismicity, and spatial variations in earthquake size distributions are tightly connected. Specifically, the creep rate along the central SAF is shown to be directly proportional to the fraction of nonclustered earthquakes for the period 1984–2020. This relationship provides a unified perspective of earthquake phenomenology along the SAF, where lower coupling manifests in weaker temporal clustering, with repeating earthquakes as an end-member. This new paradigm provides additional justification for characterizing the northwest ∼75 kilometers of the creeping segment as a transition zone, with potential implications for seismic hazard.

California↗

USGS1990

The Loma Prieta earthquake of October 17, 1989 : a brief geologic view of what caused the Loma Prieta earthquake and implications for future California earthquakes: What happened ... what is expected ... what can be done.

The San Andreas fault, in California, is the primary boundary between the North American plate and the Pacific plate. Land west of the fault has been moving northwestward relative to land on the east at an average rate of 2 inches per year for millions of years. This motion is not constant but occurs typically in sudden jumps during large earthquakes. This motion is relentless; therefore earthquakes in California are inevitable.

California↗

USGS1993

Scaling of the critical slip distance for seismic faulting with shear strain in fault zones

THEORETICAL and experimentally based laws for seismic faulting contain a critical slip distance1-5, Dc, which is the slip over which strength breaks down during earthquake nucleation. On an earthquake-generating fault, this distance plays a key role in determining the rupture nucleation dimension6, the amount of premonitory and post-seismic slip7-10, and the maximum seismic ground acceleration1,11. In laboratory friction experiments, Dc has been related to the size of surface contact junctions2,5,12; thus, the discrepancy between laboratory measurements of Dc (??? 10-5 m) and values obtained from modelling earthquakes (??? 10-2 m) has been attributed to differences in roughness between laboratory surfaces and natural faults5. This interpretation predicts a dependence of Dc on the particle size of fault gouge 2 (breccia and wear material) but not on shear strain. Here we present experimental results showing that Dc scales with shear strain in simulated fault gouge. Our data suggest a new physical interpretation for the critical slip distance, in which Dc is controlled by the thickness of the zone of localized shear strain. As gouge zones of mature faults are commonly 102-103 m thick13-17, whereas laboratory gouge layers are 1-10 mm thick, our data offer an alternative interpretation of the discrepancy between laboratory and field-based estimates of Dc.

Nature↗

USGS2001

Seismic images and fault relations of the Santa Monica thrust fault, West Los Angeles, California

In May 1997, the US Geological Survey (USGS) and the University of Southern California (USC) acquired high-resolution seismic reflection and refraction images on the grounds of the Wadsworth Veterans Administration Hospital (WVAH) in the city of Los Angeles (Fig. 1a,b). The objective of the seismic survey was to better understand the near-surface geometry and faulting characteristics of the Santa Monica fault zone. In this report, we present seismic images, an interpretation of those images, and a comparison of our results with results from studies by Dolan and Pratt (1997), Pratt et al. (1998) and Gibbs et al. (2000). The Santa Monica fault is one of the several northeast-southwest-trending, north-dipping, reverse faults that extend through the Los Angeles metropolitan area (Fig. 1a). Through much of area, the Santa Monica fault trends subparallel to the Hollywood fault, but the two faults apparently join into a single fault zone to the southwest and to the northeast (Dolan et al., 1995). The Santa Monica and Hollywood faults may be part of a larger fault system that extends from the Pacific Ocean to the Transverse Ranges. Crook et al. (1983) refer to this fault system as the Malibu Coast-Santa Monica-Raymond-Cucamonga fault system. They suggest that these faults have not formed a contiguous zone since the Pleistocene and conclude that each of the faults should be treated as a separate fault with respect to seismic hazards. However, Dolan et al. (1995) suggest that the Hollywood and Santa Monica faults are capable of generating Mw 6.8 and Mw 7.0 earthquakes, respectively. Thus, regardless of whether the overall fault system is connected and capable of rupturing in one event, individually, each of the faults present a sizable earthquake hazard to the Los Angeles metropolitan area. If, however, these faults are connected, and they were to rupture along a continuous fault rupture, the resulting hazard would be even greater. Although the Santa Monica fault represents a hazard to millions of people, its lateral extent and rupture history are not well known, due largely to limited knowledge of the fault location, geometry, and relationship to other faults. The Santa Monica fault has been obscured at the surface by alluvium and urbanization. For example, Dolan et al. (1995) could find only one 200-m-long stretch of the Santa Monica fault that was not covered by either streets or buildings. Of the 19-km length onshore section of the Santa Monica fault, its apparent location has been delineated largely on the basis of geomorphic features and oil-well drilling. Seismic imaging efforts, in combination with other investigative methods, may be the best approach in locating and understanding the Santa Monica fault in the Los Angeles region. This investigation and another recent seismic imaging investigation (Pratt et al., 1998) were undertaken to resolve the near-surface location, fault geometry, and faulting relations associated with the Santa Monica fault.

California↗

USGS2019

Variable normal-fault rupture behavior, northern Lost River fault zone, Idaho, USA

The 1983 Mw 6.9 Borah Peak earthquake generated ∼36 km of surface rupture along the Thousand Springs and Warm Springs sections of the Lost River fault zone (LRFZ, Idaho, USA). Although the rupture is a well-studied example of multisegment surface faulting, ambiguity remains regarding the degree to which a bedrock ridge and branch fault at the Willow Creek Hills influenced rupture progress. To explore the 1983 rupture in the context of the structural complexity, we reconstruct the spatial distribution of surface displacements for the northern 16 km of the 1983 rupture and prehistoric ruptures in the same reach of the LRFZ using 252 vertical-separation measurements made from high-resolution (5–10-cm-pixel) digital surface models. Our results suggest the 1983 Warm Springs rupture had an average vertical displacement of ∼0.3–0.4 m and released ∼6% of the seismic moment estimated for the Borah Peak earthquake and <12% of the moment accumulated on the Warm Springs section since its last prehistoric earthquake. The 1983 Warm Springs rupture is best described as the moderate-displacement continuation of primary rupture from the Thousand Springs section into and through a zone of structural complexity. Historical and prehistoric displacements show that the Willow Creek Hills have impeded some, but not all ruptures. We speculate that rupture termination or penetration is controlled by the history of LRFZ moment release, displacement, and rupture direction. Our results inform the interpretation of paleoseismic data from near zones of normal-fault structural complexity and demonstrate that these zones may modulate rather than impede rupture displacement.

Idaho↗

USGS2003

Paleoearthquakes and Eolian-dominated fault sedimentation along the Hubbell Spring fault zone near Albuquerque, New Mexico

The Hubbell Spring fault zone forms the modern eastern margin of the Rio Grande rift in the Albuquerque basin of north-central New Mexico. Knowledge of its seismic potential is important because the fault zone transects Kirtland Air Force Base/Sandia National Laboratories and underlies the southern Albuquerque metropolitan area. No earthquakes larger than ML 5.5 have been reported in the last 150 years in this region, so we excavated the first trench across this fault zone to determine its late Quaternary paleoseismic history. Our trench excavations revealed a complex, 16-m-wide fault zone overlain by four tapered blankets of mixed eolian sand and minor colluvium that we infer were deposited after four large-magnitude, surface-rupturing earthquakes. Although the first (oldest) rupture event is undated, we used luminescence (thermoluminescence and infrared-stimulated luminescence) ages to determine that the subsequent three rupture events occurred about 56 ?? 6, 29 ?? 3, and 12 ?? 1 ka. These ages yield recurrence intervals of 27 and 17 k.y. between events and an elapsed time of 12 k.y. since the latest surface-rupturing paleoearthquake. Slip rates are not well constrained, but our preferred average slip rate since rupture event 2 (post-56 ka) is 0.05 mm/yr, and interval slip rates between the last three events are 0.06 and 0.09 mm/yr, respectively. Vertical displacements of 1-2 m per event and probable rupture lengths of 34-43 km indicate probable paleoearthquake magnitudes (Ms or Mw) of 6.8-7.1. Future earthquakes of this size likely would cause strong ground motions in the Albuquerque metropolitan area.

New Mexico↗

USGS2018

Fault displacement hazard for strike-slip faults

In this paper we summarize data, methods, and models developed for a probabilistic assessment of fault displacement hazards across the U.S. We compare earthquake displacement data and empirical fault displacement models that have been developed for normal faults, strike-slip faults, and reverse faults. In general, the data and models are similar near the center of the fault for the three faulting types, but differ near the ends with the strike-slip data being lower than the reverse and normal faulting data. We also compare these U.S. models with data and equations developed using Japanese fault displacement data. The Japan model is also similar to the U.S. models near the center of the fault but decays less rapidly near the ends of the fault. In addition, we discuss impacts of models developed to analyze off-fault strain on secondary faults, multi-strand displacement hazard, and various mapping quality factors. For our study, we show example fault displacements for a M 7 fault with recurrence of 800 and 1600 years. We conclude that a deterministic assessment of fault displacements is often higher than the probabilistic displacements for less active faults with earthquake rupture recurrence that is longer than the hazard return period of interest. Fault displacement hazard is applied in engineering applications for buildings, bridges, pipelines, and nuclear facilities. We present three applications for fault displacement hazard at nuclear facilities and important structures.

Conference Paper↗

USGS1990

Source parameters for small events associated with the 1986 North Palm Springs, California, earthquake determined using empirical Green functions

Using small events as empirical Green functions, which include path, site, and instrument effects on the P waveforms, source parameters were estimated for 25 M L 3.4 to 4.4 events associated with the 1986 North Palm Springs earthquake. The static stress drops ranged from 3 to 80 bars, for moments of 0.7 to 11 × 10 21 dyne-cm. There was a spatial pattern to the stress drops of the aftershocks which showed increasing values along the fault plane toward the northwest compared to relatively low values near the hypocenter of the mainshock. The highest values were outside the main area of slip, and are believed to reflect a loaded area of the fault that still has an higher level of stress which was not released during the main shock. The relatively high stress drop of a preshock in 1983, located close to the hypocenter of the main shock, is also interpreted as evidence that stress drops of magnitude 3 and 4 events can be used as indicators of the stress level in a particular area.

California↗

USGS2020

An analysis of the factors that control fault zone architecture and the importance of fault orientation relative to regional stress

The moment magnitude 7.2 El Mayor−Cucapah (EMC) earthquake of 2010 in northern Baja California, Mexico produced a cascading rupture that propagated through a geometrically diverse network of intersecting faults. These faults have been exhumed from depths of 6−10 km since the late Miocene based on low-temperature thermochronology, synkinematic alteration, and deformational fabrics. Coseismic slip of 1−6 m of the EMC event was accommodated by fault zones that displayed the full spectrum of architectural styles, from simple narrow fault zones (<100 m in width) that have a single high-strain core, to complex wide fault zones (>100 m in width) that have multiple anastomosing high-strain cores. As fault zone complexity and width increase the full spectrum of observed widths (20−200 m), coseismic slip becomes more broadly distributed on a greater number of scarps that form wider arrays. Thus, the infinitesimal slip of the surface rupture of a single earthquake strongly replicates many of the fabric elements that were developed during the long-term history of slip on the faults at deeper levels of the seismogenic crust. We find that factors such as protolith, normal stress, and displacement, which control gouge production in laboratory experiments, also affect the architectural complexity of natural faults. Fault zones developed in phyllosilicate-rich metasedimentary gneiss are generally wider and more complex than those developed in quartzo-feldspathic granitoid rocks. We hypothesize that the overall weakness and low strength contrast of faults developed in phyllosilicate rich host rocks leads to strain hardening and formation of broad, multi-stranded fault zones. Fault orientation also strongly affects fault zone complexity, which we find to increase with decreasing fault dip. We attribute this to the higher resolved normal stresses on gently dipping faults assuming a uniform stress field compatible with this extensional tectonic setting. The conditions that permit slip on misoriented surfaces with high normal stress should also produce failure of more optimally oriented slip systems in the fault zone, promoting complex branching and development of multiple high-strain cores. Overall, we find that fault zone architecture need not be strongly affected by differences in the amount of cumulative slip and instead is more strongly controlled by protolith and relative normal stress.

Baja California↗

USGS2014

Scenario earthquake hazards for the Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area, east-central California (ver. 2.0, January 2018)

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) multi-hazards project in the Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area, the California Geological Survey (CGS) developed several earthquake scenarios and evaluated potential seismic hazards, including ground shaking, surface fault rupture, liquefaction, and landslide hazards associated with these earthquake scenarios. The results of these analyses can be useful in estimating the extent of potential damage and economic losses because of potential earthquakes and also for preparing emergency response plans. The Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area has numerous active faults. Five of these faults or fault zones are considered capable of producing magnitude ≥6.7 earthquakes according to the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2) developed by the 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) and the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Program. These five faults are the Fish Slough, Hartley Springs, Hilton Creek, Mono Lake, and Round Valley Faults. CGS developed earthquake scenarios for these five faults in the study area and for the White Mountains Fault Zone to the east of the study area. In this report, an earthquake scenario is intended to depict the potential consequences of significant earthquakes. A scenario earthquake is not necessarily the largest or most damaging earthquake possible on a recognized fault. Rather it is both large enough and likely enough that emergency planners should consider it in regional emergency response plans. In particular, the ground motion predicted for a given scenario earthquake does not represent a full probabilistic hazard assessment, and thus it does not provide the basis for hazard zoning and earthquake-resistant building design. Earthquake scenarios presented here are based on fault geometry and activity data developed by the WGCEP, and are consistent with the 2008 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHM). Alternatives to the NSHM scenario were developed for the Hilton Creek and Hartley Springs Faults to account for different opinions in how far these two faults extend into Long Valley Caldera. For each scenario, ground motions were calculated using the current standard practice: the deterministic seismic hazard analysis program developed by Art Frankel of USGS and three Next Generation Ground Motion Attenuation (NGA) models. Ground motion calculations incorporated the potential amplification of seismic shaking by near-surface soils defined by a map of the average shear wave velocity in the uppermost 30 m ( V S30 ) developed by CGS. In addition to ground shaking and shaking-related ground failure such as liquefaction and earthquake induced landslides, earthquakes cause surface rupture displacement, which can lead to severe damage of buildings and lifelines. For each earthquake scenario, potential surface fault displacements are estimated using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Liquefaction occurs when saturated sediments lose their strength because of ground shaking. Zones of potential liquefaction are mapped by incorporating areas where loose sandy sediments, shallow groundwater, and strong earthquake shaking coincide in the earthquake scenario. The process for defining zones of potential landslide and rockfall incorporates rock strength, surface slope, and existing landslides, with ground motions caused by the scenario earthquake. Each scenario is illustrated with maps of seismic shaking potential and fault displacement, liquefaction, and landslide potential. Seismic shaking is depicted by the distribution of shaking intensity, peak ground acceleration, and 1.0-second spectral acceleration. One-second spectral acceleration correlates well with structural damage to surface facilities. Acceleration greater than 0.2 g is often associated with strong ground shaking and may cause moderate to heavy damage. The extent of strong shaking is influenced by subsurface fault dip and near surface materials. Strong shaking is more widespread in the hanging wall regions of a normal fault. Larger ground motions also occur where young alluvial sediments amplify the shaking. Both of these effects can lead to strong shaking that extends farther from the fault on the valley side than on the hill side. The effect of fault rupture displacements may be localized along the surface trace of the mapped earthquake fault if fault geometry is simple and the fault traces are accurately located. However, surface displacement hazards can spread over a few hundred meters to a few kilometers if the earthquake fault has numerous splays or branches, such as the Hilton Creek Fault. Faulting displacements are estimated to be about 1 meter along normal faults in the study area and close to 2 meters along the White Mountains Fault Zone. All scenarios show the possibility of widespread ground failure. Liquefaction damage would likely occur in the areas of higher ground shaking near the faults where there are sandy/silty sediments and the depth to groundwater is 6.1 meters (20 feet) or less. Generally, this means damage is most common near lakes and streams in the areas of strongest shaking. Landslide potential exists throughout the study region. All steep slopes (>30 degrees) present a potential hazard at any level of shaking. Lesser slopes may have landslides within the areas of the higher ground shaking. The landslide hazard zones also are likely sources for snow avalanches during winter months and for large boulders that can be shaken loose and roll hundreds of feet down hill, which happened during the 1980 Mammoth Lakes earthquakes. Whereas methodologies used in estimating ground shaking, liquefaction, and landslides are well developed and have been applied in published hazard maps; methodologies used in estimating surface fault displacement are still being developed. Therefore, this report provides a more in-depth and detailed discussion of methodologies used for deterministic and probabilistic fault displacement hazard analyses for this project.

California↗

USGS2003

Paleoseismicity of two historically quiescent faults in Australia: Implications for fault behavior in stable continental regions

Paleoseismic studies of two historically aseismic Quaternary faults in Australia confirm that cratonic faults in stable continental regions (SCR) typically have a long-term behavior characterized by episodes of activity separated by quiescent intervals of at least 10,000 and commonly 100,000 years or more. Studies of the approximately 30-km-long Roopena fault in South Australia and the approximately 30-km-long Hyden fault in Western Australia document multiple Quaternary surface-faulting events that are unevenly spaced in time. The episodic clustering of events on cratonic SCR faults may be related to temporal fluctuations of fault-zone fluid pore pressures in a volume of strained crust. The long-term slip rate on cratonic SCR faults is extremely low, so the geomorphic expression of many cratonic SCR faults is subtle, and scarps may be difficult to detect because they are poorly preserved. Both the Roopena and Hyden faults are in areas of limited or no significant seismicity; these and other faults that we have studied indicate that many potentially hazardous SCR faults cannot be recognized solely on the basis of instrumental data or historical earthquakes. Although cratonic SCR faults may appear to be nonhazardous because they have been historically aseismic, those that are favorably oriented for movement in the current stress field can and have produced unexpected damaging earthquakes. Paleoseismic studies of modern and prehistoric SCR faulting events provide the basis for understanding of the long-term behavior of these faults and ultimately contribute to better seismic-hazard assessments.

South Australia↗

USGS1972

Regional and other general factors bearing on evaluation of earthquake and other geologic hazards to coastal communities of southeastern Alaska

The great Alaska earthquake of March 27, 1964, brought into sharp focus the need for engineering geologic studies in seismically active regions. As a result, nine communities in southeastern Alaska were selected for reconnaissance investigations as an integral part of an overall program to evaluate earthquake and other geologic hazards in most of the larger Alaska coastal communities. This report gives background information on the regional and other general factors that bear on these evaluations. Southeastern Alaska, about 525 miles long and averaging about 125 miles in width, consists of a narrow mainland strip and numerous islands. For the most part, it is a region of rugged relief with numerous glaciers capping many of the higher mountainous areas and with long linear fiords forming the inland waterways. A maritime climate prevails with mild winters and cool summers. The southeastern part of the region receives the highest precipitation in the continental United States. Ketchikan, with a population of 6,994 in 1970, is the largest city. Geology and structure of the area are complex. Igneous, metamorphic, and sedimentary rocks crop out and range in age from Paleozoic to Tertiary. Surficial deposits of Pleistocene and Holocene age mantle many areas. All of southeastern Alaska, except probably the highest peaks, was covered by glacier ice advances of late Pleistocene age. Major deglaciation was well advanced by 10,000 years ago--a time which approximately marks the end of the Pleistocene and the beginning of the Holocene. There followed a period of warm climate called the Hypsithermal, which in southeastern Alaska began 7,000-8,000 years ago and ended about 4,800-3,500 years ago. Glaciers in most places receded back of their present positions. The Hypsithermal was followed by an interval (termed Neoglaciation) of cooler climate and resurgence of glacier ice which continues to the present, although most glaciers are now rapidly receding. During the past 10,000 years worldwide sea level has risen about 100 feet, but during the past 4,000 years it has risen only about 10 feet or about 0.03 inch per year. With sea level used as a datum, the amount of sea-level rise must be added to the apparent uplift of land for the time under consideration to determine the actual amount of land uplift. The widespread presence of emergent marine deposits, several hundred feet above sea level, demonstrates that the land in southeastern Alaska has been uplifted since the last major deglaciation. The greatest known has been uplifted since the last major deglaciation. The greatest known uplift is in the vicinity of Juneau where glaciomarine deposits are present 750 feet above present sea level. Part of southeastern Alaska is presently undergoing one of the most rapid rates of uplift of any place in the world. The fastest emergence is occurring in the Glacier Bay area where the land is being uplifted relative to sea level approximately 3.9 cm per year. Most or all of the uplift appears to be due to rebound as a result of deglaciation. Southeastern Alaska lies within the circum-Pacific earthquake belt, one of the world's greatest zones of seismic activity. During historic time, there have been five earthquakes in the region with magnitudes of 8 or greater, three with magnitudes of 7 to 8, eight with magnitudes of 6 to 7, more than 15 with magnitudes of 5 to 6, and about 140 recorded earthquakes with magnitudes smaller than 5 or of unassigned magnitudes. All of the earthquakes with magnitudes 8 or greater, and a large proportion of the others, appear to be related to the active Fairweather- Queen Charlotte Islands fault system or its western extension, the Chugach-St. Elias fault. Earthquake epicenters on the Denali fault system, the other major fault system in southeastern Alaska, are few in comparison. However, because high microearthquake activity has been recorded recently on this system and earthquakes of moderate size have occurred on some of its segments, the Denali fault system probably should not be dismissed as a relict fault system of no current tectonic importance. There are numerous other known faults, as well as lineaments that may be faults of varying degrees of tectonic activity in southeastern Alaska, adjacent Canada, and eastern Alaska. One of these elements is the Totschunda fault system, which connects with the Denali fault system in eastern Alaska; it has been very active during Holocene time but few historical earthquake epicenters appear to be related to it. Both historical seismicity and geologic conditions, such as frequency and recency of faulting, must be considered together to permit an assessment of the future earthquake probability of an area. Data are too few for both factors for an accurate evaluation to be made of earthquake probability in southeastern Alaska. However, information compiled in the form of strain-release and seismic-zone maps permit some generalizations. Thus, it is tentatively concluded that most, if not all, of southeastern Alaska should be placed in seismic zone 3, a zone in which earthquakes of magnitude greater than 6 will occur from time to time and where there may be major damage to manmade structures. Inferred effects from future earthquakes in southeastern Alaska include: (1) surface displacement along faults and other tectonic land-level changes, (2) ground shaking, (3) compaction, (4) liquefaction in cohesionless materials, (5) reaction of sensitive and quick clays, (6) water-sediment ejection and associated subsidence and ground fracturing, (7) earthquake-induced sub aerial slides and slumps, (8) earthquake induced subaqueous slides, (9) effects on glaciers and related features, (10) effects on ground water and stream flow, and (11) tsunamis, seiches, and other abnormal water waves. Because of the reconnaissance nature of our studies in the coastal communities and the sparsity of laboratory data on physical properties of geologic units in each area studied, the inferred effects must be largely empirical and generalized. Therefore, the inferences are based in large part upon the effects of past major earthquakes in Alaska and elsewhere, particularly upon the well-documented effects of the Alaska earthquake of March 27, 1964. Buildings, highways, bridges, tunnels, harbor facilities, pipelines, canals, and other manmade structures may be severely damaged or destroyed by fault displacement or related tectonic land-level changes in southeastern Alaska. Direct damage from fault rupture would be restricted virtually to structures built directly athwart the fault. In California and Nevada, fault rupture almost always accompanies shocks of magnitude 6.5 or greater. The Alaska earthquake of March 27, 1964, and the Chilean earthquake of May 22, 1960, dramatically illustrated the severe adverse effects that can result from uplift or subsidence over a wide area. The variable most responsible for the degree of shaking at any epicentral distance is the type of ground. Generally, shaking is considerably greater in poorly consolidated deposits than in hard bedrock, particularly if the deposits are water saturated. Severe shaking of alluvial deposits and manmade fill, with resultant heavy damage, is well documented from the records of many past earthquakes. Damage commonly has been heavy as a result of ground settlement caused by compaction of loose sediments by shaking during an earthquake. This has been especially true where compaction was accompanied by tectonic downdrop of land, such as occurred during the Chilean earthquake of 1960 and the Alaska earthquake of 1964. Loosely emplaced manmade fill, deltaic deposits, beach deposits, and alluvial deposits may be susceptible to compaction in southeastern Alaska during a severe earthquake. Liquefaction of sand and silt is a fairly common effect of large earthquakes. It was well illustrated at Niigata, Japan, during the earthquake of June 16, 1964, and resulted in extensive damage. When part of a sloping soil mass liquefies, the entire mass can undergo catastrophic failure and can flow as a high-density liquid. In southeastern Alaska, deltaic deposits probably would be most susceptible to liquefaction. Sensitive and quick clays, which lose a considerable part of their strength when shaken, commonly fail during an earthquake and become rapid earthflows. Extensive studies were made of the sensitivity of the Bootlegger Cove Clay at Anchorage because of the marked loss of shear strength and dramatic failures of the deposits during the Alaska earthquake of 1964. If similar sensitive clays are present in some places in southeastern Alaska, they most likely are in some of the emergent fine-grained marine deposits; supporting data to confirm their presence, however, are largely lacking. Records of some 50 major earthquakes show that in at least half of the instances water and sediment have been ejected from surficial deposits Water-sediment ejection and associated subsidence and ground fracturing commonly cause extensive damage to the works of man. Ejecta may fill basements and other low-lying parts of buildings. Agricultural land can be covered with a blanket of infertile soils, and small ponds can be filled or made shallow. In southeastern Alaska these phenomena are most likely to occur on valley floors, deltas, tidal flats, alluvial fans, swamps, and lakeshores. Earthquake-induced sliding on land generally is confined to steep slopes but may take place in fine-grained deposits on moderately to nearly flat surfaces if the deposits are subject to liquefaction. A large rockslide triggered by the Lituya Bay, Alaska, earthquake of July 10, 1958, generated a wave that surged up the opposite wall of the inlet to a record height of 1,740 feet. During the Hebgen Lake, Montana, earthquake of August 17, 1959, a spectacular rockslide plunged into the Madison River canyon, buried 28 people, dammed the river, and created a large lake. Earthquake-records are replete with accounts of sliding of surficial deposits during moderate to large earthquakes. Most or all of the general factors that favor subaerial landsliding are present in southeastern Alaska. Earthquake-induced subaqueous slides can produce adverse effects both nearshore and some distance offshore. Nearshore sliding may progress shoreward and destroy harbor facilities and other structures, commonly with substantial loss of life. Disastrous large submarine slides occurred along the fronts of deltas in Seward and Valdez during the Alaska earthquake of 1964. In similar fashion, the largest submarine slides in southeastern Alaska likely will be triggered along the larger delta fronts. Sliding farther offshore can constitute a threat to navigation because of changes in water depths. Also underwater sliding can break communication cables. Glaciers were not greatly affected by the Alaska earthquake of 1964 despite the fact that about 20 percent of the area that underwent strong shaking is covered by ice. In contrast, the cataclysmic avalanche of ice and rock that fell from a high glacier-covered peak in Peru during the earthquake of May 31, 1970, produced devastating effects downvalley on man and his works in the form of mudflows. Most towns in southeastern Alaska are sufficiently distant from glaciers so as not be to directly affected. Both the Alaska earthquake of 1964 and the Hebgen Lake, Montana, earthquake of 1959 significantly affected ground- and surface-water regimens. Water levels in some wells declined whereas in others flow increased. Some springs discharged at a rate three times as much as normal; flow of others decreased or stopped. Discharge of many streams increased markedly. Most or all of the effects described above could occur in parts of southeastern Alaska during future large earthquakes. Tsunamis, seiches, and other abnormal water waves associated with large earthquakes commonly cause vast property damage and heavy loss of life. Tsunami effects can be devastating to coastal areas as far as many thousands of miles from their generation source. Seiche effects generally are confined to inland bodies of water or to relatively enclosed coastal bodies of water. Abnormal waves generated by submarine sliding or by subaerial sliding into water generally produce only local effects but may be highly devastating. Tsunami waves resulting from the Chilean earthquake of 1960 inflicted extensive damage and loss of life on coastal communities throughout a large part of southern Chile, and significant runups and damage were recorded in many places throughout the Pacific Ocean area. The tsunami waves generated by the Alaska earthquake of 1964 struck with devastating force along a broad stretch of the Alaska coast and produced heavy property damage and loss of life as far away as Crescent City, Calif. Seiche waves generated by that earthquake reached runup heights of 20-30 feet on some lakes in Alaska, and water-level fluctuations were recorded on streams, reservoirs, lakes, and swimming pools in States bordering the Gulf of Mexico. Waves generated by submarine sliding struck violently at a number of places during or immediately after the quake and were the major cause of loss of life and damage to property. Slide-generated waves probably would have a higher destructive potential in southeastern Alaska than either tsunami waves or seiche waves because of their possibly higher local runups and because they can hit the shores almost without warning during or immediately after an earthquake. Nonearthquake-related geologic hazards, although generally far less dramatic than those related to earthquakes, tend to occur so much more frequently or persistently that their aggregate effects can be significant. Three kinds of geologic hazards of this type are discussed: (1) nonearthquake-induced landsliding and subaqueous sliding, (2) flooding, and (3) land uplift. The potential for nonearthquake-triggered landsliding in southeastern Alaska ranges widely from place to place. Past sliding generally furnishes the clue in the prediction of where and in what materials future sliding will occur. Fast-moving rockslides, debris slides, and mudflows can be expected to occur from time to time on steep slopes and be highly destructive to highways, power plants, pipelines, buildings, and other facilities located on a slope or at its base. Present slow downslope movement of talus can be expected to continue at the same general rate unless conditions are changed by man or there are climatic changes. Snow and debris avalanches can be especially hazardous during winter months. Long-inactive landslides may be triggered into renewed activity or new slides may be created by man-induced modifications. Accelerated slope erosion and debris flows may follow large-scale clearing and cutting of timber. Subaqueous sliding can be expected to occur periodically along fronts of deltas and on other oversteepened underwater slopes. Floods have been common in parts of southeastern Alaska because of heavy precipitation and rapid runoff from steep slopes with resulting heavy damage to roads and other facilities. Continued damage can be expected in the future unless more remedial measures are taken. Current uplift of land in southeastern Alaska, although probably not affecting man significantly in a short period of time, may have some adverse long-term effects. These long-term effects should be borne in mind when facilities such as docks and boat harbors are constructed on or near the shore, where there is a critical relation between height of land and water.

Alaska↗

USGS1972

Reconnaissance engineering geology of the Skagway area, Alaska, with emphasis on evaluation of earthquake and other geologic hazards

A program to study the engineering geology of most of the larger Alaska coastal communities and to evaluate their earthquake and other geologic hazards was started promptly after the 1964 Alaska earthquake; this report is a product of that program. Field-study methods were largely reconnaissance, and thus the interpretations in the report are subject to revision as further information becomes available. The report provides broad guidelines for planners and engineers when considering geologic factors during preparation of land-use plans. The use of this information should lead to minimizing future loss of life and property, especially during major earthquakes. Skagway was established in 1897 as a seaport near the head of Taiya Inlet fiord in the northern part of southeastern Alaska. Rugged mountains, steep-walled valleys, fiords, and numerous glaciers and icefields characterize the landscape of the area. Valley floors are narrow and most carry large streams, which end in tidewater deltas. Skagway is situated on the delta and lower valley floor of the Skagway River. Glaciers became vastly enlarged during the Pleistocene Epoch and presumably covered the area at least several times. The last major deglaciation probably occurred about 10,000 years ago. Subsequently, there was minor expansion and then partial retreat of glaciers; land rebound because of glacial melting is still going on today. Bedrock is composed predominantly of plutonic intrusive rocks, chiefly quartz diorite and granodiorite, some metamorphic rocks and a few dikes are present. Most bedrock is of Jurassic and Cretaceous age. An assortment of surficial deposits of Quaternary age form the valley bottoms and locally part of the valley walls. Thick deposits of sand and gravel have accumulated as deltas at the heads of fiords and as alluvium in the main stream valleys; deposits may be as much as S8S feet thick at Skagway. Locally, thin deposits mantle some of the steep bedrock slopes and also form some moderately to gently sloping ground. Manmade fill covers much of the top of the delta and floor of the Skagway valley. The fill is composed chiefly of gravel and sand. Quarried blocks of granodiorite are used as riprap to face river dikes and on fill areas exposed to waves of Taiya Inlet. The geologic structure of the area is imperfectly known. However, it appears that plutonic rocks intruded metamorphic rocks in Jurassic and Cretaceous time. Extensive faulting is strongly indicated by the strikingly linear or curvilinear pattern of fiords and many large and small valleys, but no major faults have been positively identified because of concealment by water or surficial deposits. Inferred faults include those coincident with the lower Skagway valley, Taiya Inlet-Taiya valley, and the Katzehin River delta-Upper Dewey Lake. Principal fault movements probably occurred in middle Tertiary time but some movement might have been in late Tertiary or possibly early Quaternary time. Local faults appear to join the Chilkat River fault, a segment of the important Denali fault system, one of the major tectonic elements of southeastern Alaska. One fault segment of this system shows evidence of movement within the last several hundred years. Southeastern Alaska's other major fault system is the active Fairweather-Queen Charlotte Islands fault system'near the coast of the Pacific Ocean. This fault system passes to within about 100 miles of Skagway. At its northwest end the fault system merges with the Chugach-St. Elias fault. One hundred twenty-two earthquakes, some of them strong, have been felt or possibly felt at Skagway during the years 1898 through 1969. The closest large earthquake (magnitude about 8) causing some damage at Skagway occurred July 10, 1958. Its epicenter was about 100 miles to the southwest. Other earthquakes, as much as 150 miles away, also have caused slight to moderate damage. The closest instrumentally recorded earthquake (magnitude 6) had its epicenter about 30 miles to the west of Skagway. Most earthquakes in southeastern Alaska have occurred southwest, west, or northwest of Skagway, near the coast of the Pacific Ocean. They appear to be related to movement along the Fairweather-Queen Charlotte Islands fault system or the Chugach-St. Elias fault. Most have had their epicenters offshore. Some earthquakes may be related to movement at depth along the Denali fault system. The probability of destructive earthquakes at Skagway is unknown because the tectonics of the region have not been studied in detail. However, on the basis of the seismic record and limited tectonic evidence, we suggest that sometime in the future an earthquake of at least magnitude 6 probably will occur very close to the city, a magnitude 7 earthquake might occur in the general area, and an earthquake of magnitude 8 probably will occur at some distance to the southwest, west, or northwest. Effects from nearby large earthquakes could cause extensive damage at Skagway. Nine principal effects are considered. 1. Surface displacement. Displacement of ground caused by fault movement would affect only structures built athwart the fault. However, a sudden tectonic uplift of land of as much as a few feet might affect a wide area and necessitate extensive dredging and wharf rebuilding. On the other hand, a subsidence of several feet would allow tidewater to reach inland and flood part of the harbor facilities and the business district. 2. Ground shaking. Because intensity of ground shaking during earthquakes largely depends on type and water content of the geologic material being shaken, the geologic materials are separated into three categories. Those considered susceptible to strongest shaking are grouped into category 1 (containing materials that are saturated, loose, and of medium- to fine-grain sizes); those of intermediate susceptibility in category 2; and those least susceptible to shaking in category 3. 3. Compaction of some medium-grained sediments during strong earthquake shaking could cause local settling of alluvial and deltaic surfaces. Also, some manmade fills near the harbor might undergo marked differential settling. 4. Liquefaction of saturated beds of uniform, fine sand commonly occurs during strong earthquakes. Few such beds, however, are positively identified at Skagway; some may occur within deltaic and alluvial deposits. If present, these beds might liquefy and cause local settling or trigger landslides. 5. Ejection of water-sediment mixtures from earthquake-induced fractures or from point sources, plus some associated ground subsidence, is common during major earthquakes where saturated sand and fine gravel deposits are confined beneath generally impermeable beds. Some alluvial and deltaic deposits at Skagway probably are susceptible to these processes. Locally, ejecta might cover roads and areas between buildings and fill low-lying areas. Associated ground fracturing might damage roadways, foundations of buildings, and other facilities. 6. Subaerial and subaqueous slides occur frequently during earthquakes. Saturated loose sediments on steep slopes are especially susceptible to sliding. During a major earthquake, surficial deposits forming such slopes along the southeast side of the Skagway valley probably would be subject to sliding or earthflowing on an extensive scale. Some sliding might extend onto the valley floor and damage or destroy buildings and part of the railroad. Rockfalls would be numerous and locally very large rockslides might occur. Subaqueous sliding of the Skagway delta is potentially the most damaging of earthquake effects. Sliding may have occurred there during the earthquake of September 16, 1899; any future major earthquake close to the city would cause extensive sliding, possibly triggered in part by liquefaction. If shaking continued for several minutes, successive slides might progressively remove large portions of the delta and allow extensive land spreading and fracturing of Skagway River alluvium as much as several thousand feet landward from the shoreline. 7. Glacier surfaces commonly receive extensive snow avalanches and rockslides during seismic shaking. In the Skagway area, glaciers may be disrupted at their margins, and resulting blocked streams might form lakes in a few places. If these lakes drained suddenly, downstream areas would he flooded. No long-term effects, such as glacier expansion, are expected. 8. Ground- and surface-water levels often are affected during and after strong earthquake shaking. At Skagway, ground-water levels probably would be lowered, but there would be no permanent change in water quality. Earthquake-triggered landslides could dam the Skagway River; the sudden failure of the dams might cause severe flooding. 9. Waves generated by earthquakes include tsunamis, seiche waves, and waves caused by subaerial and submarine sliding and tectonic displacement of land. Damage in the Skagway area would depend on wave height, tidal stage, and warning time. Some waves triggered by subaerial and subaqueous slides have a strong possibility of reaching heights of as much as 60 feet--or possibly even higher. Tsunamis from the open ocean must travel 160 miles of fiords before reaching Skagway, which allows sufficient time for appraisal of expectable wave height and, if necessary, evacuation of the harbor area and other low-lying ground. Geologic hazards other than those hazards associated with earthquakes include nonearthquake-induced subaerial and subaqueous slides, floods, and slow uplift (rebound) of land. Landslides of moderate size are known to have occurred from time to time during heavy rains such as those of September 1967. Subaqueous slides happen intermittently during the normal growth of deltas. Submarine cables on the floor of northern Taiya Inlet presumably were broken by such slides on September 10, 1927. Flooding by the Skagway River has inundated parts of the city many times, usually during heavy rains in the fall. Two floods were reported to have been caused by the sudden draining of glacier-dammed lakes. Dikes protect the city from many smaller floods, but heightening and broadening is needed to give full protection. Slow land uplift at Skagway, because of regional glacioisostatic rebound, averages 0.059 foot per year. On this basis, the shoreline theoretically shifted seaward 500 feet and the harbor shoaled 4.4 feet between 1897 and 1972. It is recommended that future geologic study of the Skagway area include: detailed geologic mapping and collection of data on geologic materials, joints, faults, and slope stability; complete evaluation of earthquake probability and response of materials to shaking; and collection and evaluation of periodic soundings and sediment data from Skagway and Taiya deltas to assist in forecasting the stability of the delta front.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Spatial and temporal analysis of geologic slip rates, Cucamonga Fault, California, USA: Implications for along-strike applications and multi-fault rupture

To constrain fault processes and hazard, fault slip rates may be extrapolated over different fault lengths or time intervals. Here, we investigate slip rates for the Cucamonga Fault (CF). The CF is located at the junction of the Transverse Range fault system with the San Andreas and San Jacinto Faults, and it is hypothesized to connect with these faults, promoting the propagation of large, multi-fault earthquakes. Previous work has shown that CF displacements on late Quaternary alluvial fan surfaces are highly variable along strike. We present two new 10 Be surface exposure ages from depth profiles on the alluvial fans. Slip rates are consistent with a rate of 1.4 ± 0.3 m/kyr over time intervals of ∼20, ∼30, and ∼40 kyr. If the CF participates in multi-fault ruptures, then these earthquakes occur either rarely or with sufficient regularity to maintain apparently steady rates over multiple intervals. We also explore along-strike fault displacement variability using a calibrated morphological model. The model successfully reproduces scarp profiles and indicates that fault displacement variability can be explained in part by scarp age but not uplift rate. We infer that both erosion by ephemeral gullying and distributed deformation contribute to fault displacement variability, although both are difficult to detect confidently without excavations across the scarp. These investigations show that better characterization of cumulative-slip variability along strike may improve accuracy and precision of slip rates. Slip rates that do not consider epistemic uncertainties may not be suitable for extrapolation over longer fault sections.

California↗

USGS2022

Off-fault deformation in regions of complex fault geometries: the 2013, Mw7.7, Baluchistan rupture (Pakistan)

Observations of recent earthquake surface ruptures show that ground deformations include a localized component occurring on faults, and an off-fault component affecting the surrounding medium. This second component is also referred to as off-fault deformation (OFD). The localized component generally occurs on complex networks of faults that connect at depth onto a unique fault plane, whereas OFD consists of distributed fracturing and diffuse deformation of the bulk volume, and occurs over scales of hundreds of meters to kilometers around the faults. High-resolution optical image correlation presents a unique potential to characterize the complexity of the surface displacements, including on-fault displacements and OFDs. In this study, we used sub-pixel correlation of 0.5-m resolution optical images to measure the surface displacement field with a <20 cm accuracy for a 30-km long section of the 2013 M w 7.7 Baluchistan, Pakistan, rupture. Our results document significant variability in the fault displacements, associated with large proportions of OFD in regions of fault geometrical complexity. Conversely, in regions where the fault geometry is simple, surface deformation is entirely accommodated by the primary faults with 0% OFD. When combining the localized deformation on faults with the OFD, we show that the total surface displacement budget is constant along the strike of the rupture, despite strong variations observed in the rupture geometry. Based on this analysis, we propose an idealized scenario of earthquake surface deformation as a function of the rupture geometrical variations.

Journal of Geophysical Research, Solid Earth↗

USGS2007

Map and data for Quaternary faults and fault systems on the Island of Hawai'i

Introduction This report and digitally prepared, GIS-based map is one of a series of similar products covering individual states or regions of United States that show the locations, ages, and activity rates of major earthquake-related features such as faults and fault-related folds. It is part of a continuing the effort to compile a comprehensive Quaternary fault and fold map and database for the United States, which is supported by the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program. Guidelines for the compilation of the Quaternary fault and fold maps for the United States were published by Haller and others (1993) at the onset of this project. This compilation of Quaternary surface faulting and folding in Hawai`i is one of several similar state and regional compilations that were planned for the United States. Reports published to date include West Texas (Collins and others, 1996), New Mexico (Machette and others, 1998), Arizona (Pearthree, 1998), Colorado (Widmann and others, 1998), Montana (Stickney and others, 2000), Idaho (Haller and others, 2005), and Washington (Lidke and others, 2003). Reports for other states such as California and Alaska are still in preparation. The primary intention of this compilation is to aid in seismic-hazard evaluations. The report contains detailed information on the location and style of faulting, the time of most recent movement, and assigns each feature to a slip-rate category (as a proxy for fault activity). It also contains the name and affiliation of the compiler, date of compilation, geographic and other paleoseismologic parameters, as well as an extensive set of references for each feature. The map (plate 1) shows faults, volcanic rift zones, and lineaments that show evidence of Quaternary surface movement related to faulting, including data on the time of most recent movement, sense of movement, slip rate, and continuity of surface expression. This compilation is presented as a digitally prepared map product and catalog of data, both in Adobe Acrobat PDF format. The senior authors (Eric C. Cannon and Roland Burgmann) compiled the fault data as part of ongoing studies of active faulting on the Island of Hawai`i. The USGS is responsible for organizing and integrating the State or regional products under their National Seismic Hazard Mapping project, including the coordination and oversight of contributions from individuals and groups (Michael N. Machette and Anthony J. Crone), database design and management (Kathleen M. Haller), and digitization and analysis of map data (Richard L. Dart). After being released an Open-File Report, the data in this report will be available online at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/qfaults/, the USGS Quaternary Fault and Fold Database of the United States.

Hawaii↗

USGS2007

Earthquake Rate Model 2.2 of the 2007 Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities, Appendix D: Magnitude-Area Relationships

Summary To estimate the down-dip coseismic fault dimension, W, the Executive Committee has chosen the Nazareth and Hauksson (2004) method, which uses the 99% depth of background seismicity to assign W. For the predicted earthquake magnitude-fault area scaling used to estimate the maximum magnitude of an earthquake rupture from a fault's length, L, and W, the Committee has assigned equal weight to the Ellsworth B (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 2003) and Hanks and Bakun (2002) (as updated in 2007) equations. The former uses a single relation; the latter uses a bilinear relation which changes slope at M=6.65 (A=537 km2).

Open-File Report↗