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Faults & earthquakes

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At least 577 records · Page 32Linked to original sources

USGS2002

Stress triggering of the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake by transient deformation following the 1992 Landers earthquake

The M 7.3 June 28, 1992 Landers and M 7.1 October 16, 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes, California, both right lateral strike-slip events on NNW-trending subvertical faults, occurred in close proximity in space and time in a region where recurrence times for surface-rupturing earthquakes are thousands of years. This suggests a causal role for the Landers earthquake in triggering the Hector Mine earthquake. Previous modeling of the static stress change associated with the Landers earthquake shows that the area of peak Hector Mine slip lies where the Coulomb failure stress promoting right-lateral strike-slip failure was high, but the nucleation point of the Hector Mine rupture was neutrally to weakly promoted, depending on the assumed coefficient of friction. Possible explanations that could account for the 7-year delay between the two ruptures include background tectonic stressing, dissipation of fluid pressure gradients, rate- and state-dependent friction effects, and post-Landers viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle. By employing a viscoelastic model calibrated by geodetic data collected during the time period between the Landers and Hector Mine events, we calculate that postseismic relaxation produced a transient increase in Coulomb failure stress of about 0.7 bars on the impending Hector Mine rupture surface. The increase is greatest over the broad surface that includes the 1999 nucleation point and the site of peak slip further north. Since stress changes of magnitude greater than or equal to 0.1 bar are associated with documented causal fault interactions elsewhere, viscoelastic relaxation likely contributed to the triggering of the Hector Mine earthquake. This interpretation relies on the assumption that the faults occupying the central Mojave Desert (i.e., both the Landers and Hector Mine rupturing faults) were critically stressed just prior to the Landers earthquake.

California↗

USGS2022

Paleoseismic study of the XEOLXELEK–Elk Lake fault: A newly identified Holocene fault in thenorthern Cascadia forearc near Victoria, British Columbia, Canada

High-resolution topographic data show a tectonic scarp formed in Quaternary sediments near the city of Victoria in the northern Cascadia forearc on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. A paleoseismic trench excavation across the structure, the XEOLXELEK–Elk Lake fault, shows evidence for a Holocene (after 12.2 cal ka BP) surface-rupturing reverse-slip earthquake that produced a fault-propagation fold and resulted in the formation of a ∼1.4 to 3.5 m-high scarp. Fault-propagation fold modelling indicates ∼3.2 m of reverse slip on a 50°-dipping fault plane reproduces the observed deformation, and fault-scaling relations suggest a single earthquake rupture with this surface displacement could occur during a ∼Mw 6.1– 7.6 earthquake. Given the fault’s location within the metropolitan area of Victoria, an earthquake near this magnitude would result in significant damage to local infrastructure and this fault is worth considering in future seismic hazard assessments.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2017

Surface slip during large Owens Valley earthquakes

The 1872 Owens Valley earthquake is the third largest known historical earthquake in California. Relatively sparse field data and a complex rupture trace, however, inhibited attempts to fully resolve the slip distribution and reconcile the total moment release. We present a new, comprehensive record of surface slip based on lidar and field investigation, documenting 162 new measurements of laterally and vertically displaced landforms for 1872 and prehistoric Owens Valley earthquakes. Our lidar analysis uses a newly developed analytical tool to measure fault slip based on cross‐correlation of sublinear topographic features and to produce a uniquely shaped probability density function (PDF) for each measurement. Stacking PDFs along strike to form cumulative offset probability distribution plots (COPDs) highlights common values corresponding to single and multiple‐event displacements. Lateral offsets for 1872 vary systematically from ∼1.0 to 6.0 m and average 3.3 ± 1.1 m (2σ). Vertical offsets are predominantly east‐down between ∼0.1 and 2.4 m, with a mean of 0.8 ± 0.5 m. The average lateral‐to‐vertical ratio compiled at specific sites is ∼6:1. Summing displacements across subparallel, overlapping rupture traces implies a maximum of 7–11 m and net average of 4.4 ± 1.5 m, corresponding to a geologic M w ∼7.5 for the 1872 event. We attribute progressively higher‐offset lateral COPD peaks at 7.1 ± 2.0 m, 12.8 ± 1.5 m, and 16.6 ± 1.4 m to three earlier large surface ruptures. Evaluating cumulative displacements in context with previously dated landforms in Owens Valley suggests relatively modest rates of fault slip, averaging between ∼0.6 and 1.6 mm/yr (1σ) over the late Quaternary.

Book↗

USGS1996

1957 Gobi-Altay, Mongolia, earthquake as a prototype for southern California's most devastating earthquake

The 1957 Gobi-Altay earthquake was associated with both strike-slip and thrust faulting, processes similar to those along the San Andreas fault and the faults bounding the San Gabriel Mountains just north of Los Angeles, California. Clearly, a major rupture either on the San Andreas fault north of Los Angeles or on the thrust faults bounding the Los Angeles basin poses a serious hazard to inhabitants of that area. By analogy with the Gobi-Altay earthquake, we suggest that simultaneous rupturing of both the San Andreas fault and the thrust faults nearer Los Angeles is a real possibility that amplifies the hazard posed by ruptures on either fault system separately.

Geology↗

USGS2002

Relationship of the 1999 Hector Mine and 1992 Landers fault ruptures to offsets on neogene faults and distribution of late Cenozoic basins in the eastern California shear zone

This report examines the Hector Mine and Landers earthquakes in the broader context of faults and fault-related basins of the eastern California shear zone (ECSZ). We compile new estimates of total strike-slip offset (horizontal separation) at nearly 30 fault sites based on offset magnetic anomaly pairs. We also present a map of the depth to pre-Cenozoic basement rock (thickness of basin-filling late Cenozoic deposits) for the region, based on an inversion of gravity and geologic data. Our estimates of total long-term strike-slip offsets on faults that slipped during the 1999 Hector Mine (3.4 km), and the 1992 Landers earthquakes (3.1 ? to 4.6 km) fall within the 3- to 5-km range of total strike-slip offset proposed for most faults of the western ECSZ. Faults having offsets as great as 20 km are present in the eastern part of the ECSZ. Although the Landers rupture followed sections of a number of faults that had been mapped as independent structures, the similarity in total strike-slip offset associated with these faults is compatible with one of the following hypotheses: (1) the Landers multistrand rupture is a typical event for this linked fault system or (2) this complex rupture path has acted as a coherent entity when viewed over some characteristic multiearthquake cycle. The second hypothesis implies that, for each cycle, slip associated with smaller earthquakes on individual fault segments integrates to a uniform slip over the length of the linked faults. With one exception, the region surrounding the Hector Mine and Landers ruptures is devoid of deep late Cenozoic basins. In particular, no deep basins are found immediately north of the Pinto Mountain fault, a place where a number of kinematic models for development of the ECSZ have predicted basins. In contrast, some basins exist near Barstow and along the eastern part of the ECSZ, where the model of Dokka et al. (1998) predicts basins.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS1997

The rupture process of the Manjil, Iran earthquake of 20 June 1990 and implications for intraplate strike-slip earthquakes

In terms of seismically radiated energy or moment release, the earthquake of 20 January 1990 in the Manjil Basin-Alborz Mountain region of Iran is the second largest strike-slip earthquake to have occurred in an intracontinental setting in the past decade. It caused enormous loss of life and the virtual destruction of several cities. Despite a very large meizoseismal area, the identification of the causative faults has been hampered by the lack of reliable earthquake locations and conflicting field reports of surface displacement. Using broadband data from global networks of digitally recording seismographs, we analyse broadband seismic waveforms to derive characteristics of the rupture process. Complexities in waveforms generated by the earthquake indicate that the main shock consisted of a tiny precursory subevent followed in the next 20 seconds by a series of four major subevents with depths ranging from 10 to 15 km. The focal mechanisms of the major subevents, which are predominantly strike-slip, have a common nodal plane striking about 285°–295°. Based on the coincidence of this strike with the dominant tectonic fabric of the region we presume that the EW striking planes are the fault planes. The first major subevent nucleated slightly south of the initial precursor. The second subevent occurred northwest of the initial precursor. The last two subevents moved progressively southeastward of the first subevent in a direction collinear with the predominant strike of the fault planes. The offsets in the relative locations and the temporal delays of the rupture subevents indicate heterogeneous distribution of fracture strength and the involvement of multiple faults. The spatial distribution of teleseismic aftershocks, which at first appears uncorrelated with meizoseismal contours, can be decomposed into stages. The initial activity, being within and on the periphery of the rupture zone, correlates in shape and length with meizoseismal lines. In the second stage of activity the aftershock zone expands and appears to cluster about the geomorphic and geologic features several tens of kilometres from the rupture zone. The activity is interpreted as a regional response to quasistatic stress migration along zones of tectonic weakness. The radiated energy of the main shock and the estimate of seismic moment yields an apparent stress of 20 bars. High apparent stress may be typical of strike slip earthquakes occurring in intracontinental environments undergoing continental collision.

Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica↗

USGS2005

Triggering of tsunamigenic aftershocks from large strike‐slip earthquakes: Analysis of the November 2000 New Ireland earthquake sequence

[1] The November 2000 New Ireland earthquake sequence started with a M w = 8.0 left‐lateral main shock on 16 November and was followed by a series of aftershocks with primarily thrust mechanisms. The earthquake sequence was associated with a locally damaging tsunami on the islands of New Ireland and nearby New Britain, Bougainville, and Buka. Results from numerical tsunami‐propagation models of the main shock and two of the largest thrust aftershocks ( M w > 7.0) indicate that the largest tsunami was caused by an aftershock located near the southeastern termination of the main shock, off the southern tip of New Ireland (Aftershock 1). Numerical modeling and tide gauge records at regional and far‐field distances indicate that the main shock also generated tsunami waves. Large horizontal displacements associated with the main shock in regions of steep bathymetry accentuated tsunami generation for this event. Most of the damage on Bougainville and Buka Islands was caused by focusing and amplification of tsunami energy from a ridge wave between the source region and these islands. Modeling of changes in the Coulomb failure stress field caused by the main shock indicate that Aftershock 1 was likely triggered by static stress changes, provided the fault was on or synthetic to the New Britain interplate thrust as specified by the Harvard CMT mechanism. For other possible focal mechanisms of Aftershock 1 and the regional occurrence of thrust aftershocks in general, evidence for static stress change triggering is not as clear. Other triggering mechanisms such as changes in dynamic stress may also have been important. The 2000 New Ireland earthquake sequence provides evidence that tsunamis caused by thrust aftershocks can be triggered by large strike‐slip earthquakes. Similar tectonic regimes that include offshore accommodation structures near large strike‐slip faults are found in southern California, the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, along the Queen Charlotte fault in British Columbia, and near the Alpine fault of New Zealand. Results from this study and previous stress modeling studies suggest that the likelihood of local tsunamis in these regions may significantly increase after a great strike‐slip earthquake.

New Britain, New Ireland↗

USGS2008

Earthquake Rate Model 2 of the 2007 working group for California earthquake probabilities, magnitude-area relationships

The Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities must transform fault lengths and their slip rates into earthquake moment-magnitudes. First, the down-dip coseismic fault dimension, W, must be inferred. We have chosen the Nazareth and Hauksson (2004) method, which uses the depth above which 99% of the background seismicity occurs to assign W. The product of the observed or inferred fault length, L, with the down-dip dimension, W, gives the fault area, A. We must then use a scaling relation to relate A to moment-magnitude, Mw. We assigned equal weight to the Ellsworth B (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 2003) and Hanks and Bakun (2007) equations. The former uses a single logarithmic relation fitted to the M=6.5 portion of data of Wells and Coppersmith (1994); the latter uses a bilinear relation with a slope change at M=6.65 (A=537 km2) and also was tested against a greatly expanded dataset for large continental transform earthquakes. We also present an alternative power law relation, which fits the newly expanded Hanks and Bakun (2007) data best, and captures the change in slope that Hanks and Bakun attribute to a transition from area- to length-scaling of earthquake slip. We have not opted to use the alternative relation for the current model. The selections and weights were developed by unanimous consensus of the Executive Committee of the Working Group, following an open meeting of scientists, a solicitation of outside opinions from additional scientists, and presentation of our approach to the Scientific Review Panel. The magnitude-area relations and their assigned weights are unchanged from that used in Working Group (2003).

Open-File Report↗

USGS2026

Distributed faulting of the northern West Napa Fault Zone in Napa Valley, California

Mapped surface ruptures from the 24 August 2014 M w 6.0 South Napa earthquake in the Napa Valley, California, show a 2‐km‐wide zone of distributed faulting in the southern and central West Napa fault zone (WNFZ). In the northern WNFZ at Hendry Winery (HW), however, the mapped 2014 surface ruptures encompass an ∼100‐m‐wide zone, implying significant narrowing of the near‐surface fault zone to the north. We present a tomographic shear‐wave velocity ( ⁠⁠ V S ) model and guided‐wave data that indicate the northern WNFZ is at least 400‐m wide, with multiple near‐surface fault traces. Our V S model shows that the 2014 surface ruptures are underlain by discrete low‐velocity zones (LVZs), and coincident guided‐wave data show that the LVZs carry fault‐zone guided waves. If nearby (<500 m) mapped faults to the east of HW are part of the WNFZ, the entire WNFZ is more than 1 km wide in the northern Napa Valley. WNFZ guided waves travel up to 38% slower than S body waves, and low‐strain guided‐wave shaking is up to five times stronger than the associated body‐wave shaking. Our data suggest that guided waves, traveling along distributed faults, may result in an increased shaking hazard over a 1‐km‐wide area of the northern Napa Valley during future significant earthquakes. In places, the 2014 surface ruptures were difficult to find one year after the earthquake, and paleoseismic trenching showed only weak evidence for faulting, which may not have been identified in trenches if the locations of the 2014 surface ruptures had not been previously mapped ( Prentice et al. , 2015 ). Guided‐wave and V S tomography data, however, show strong evidence for faulting beneath the 2014 surface ruptures and at locations to the east. Although paleoseismic trenching is the gold standard for identifying near‐surface faulting, methods such as peak ground velocities of guided waves may better identify immature near‐surface fault traces.

California↗

USGS2011

Probabilistic fault displacement hazards for the southern san andreas fault using scenarios and empirical slips

We apply a probabilistic method to develop fault displacement hazard maps and profiles for the southern San Andreas Fault. Two slip models are applied: (1) scenario slip, defined by the ShakeOut rupture model, and (2) empirical slip, calculated using regression equations relating global slip to earthquake magnitude and distance along the fault. The hazard is assessed using a range of magnitudes defined by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast and the ShakeOut. For hazard mapping we develop a methodology to partition displacement among multiple fault branches basedon geological observations. Estimated displacement hazard extends a few kilometers wide in areas of multiple mapped fault branches and poor mapping accuracy. Scenario and empirical displacement hazard differs by a factor of two or three, particularly along the southernmost section of the San Andreas Fault. We recommend the empirical slip model with site-specific geological data to constrain uncertainties for engineering applications. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2018

Holocene surface ruptures on the Salinas Fault and southeastern Great Southern Puerto Rico Fault Zone, South Coastal Plain of Puerto Rico

We analyzed light detection and ranging (lidar) data and aerial photography to locate active faults near the south coast of Puerto Rico and excavated paleoseismic trenches across the Salinas fault and the Great Southern Puerto Rico fault zone (GSPRFZ). We document evidence for two Holocene surface‐rupturing earthquakes along both faults. Two earthquakes on the Salinas fault occurred after the deposition of sediments that are 7400–10,400 yrs old. No quantitative ages constrain the timing of the two earthquakes on the southeast GSPRFZ, but we interpret both events to have occurred during the Holocene or latest Pleistocene, based on the similarities in the characteristics of the faulted sediment and the development of soils exposed in both trenches. Stratigraphic and geomorphic evidence suggests components of both vertical and lateral slip on both faults. These results show that onshore active faults in Puerto Rico are more common than previously recognized and highlight the need for additional study to search for Holocene active faults and for an updated seismic hazard analysis for the island.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2022

High-resolution marine seismic imaging of the Seattle fault zone: Near surface insights into fault zone geometry, Quaternary deformation, and long-term evolution

The Seattle fault zone (SFZ) is a north‐directed thrust fault system that underlies the greater Seattle metropolitan area. Evidence of past land level changes, landslides, liquefaction, and a local tsunami indicate that this 70‐km‐long fault system can host up to M 7–7.5 earthquakes. Both the geometry and earthquake recurrence of the SFZ are debated and surveys of the shallow subsurface have not yet been incorporated into deeper crustal‐scale structural interpretations, especially where the SFZ cuts across marine portions of the Puget Lowland. Here we use a new high‐resolution marine seismic reflection dataset to image fault‐related deformation in Quaternary sediments and Tertiary bedrock throughout Puget Sound and Lake Washington. We use this perspective of shallow geology as a link between existing crustal‐scale geophysical insights into fault geometry at depth and paleoseismological observations of faulting at the surface and propose a refined structural model for the SFZ. We interpret that our new seismic reflection data in the Rich Passage area of Puget Sound images evidence of an inactive, south‐dipping strand of the SFZ, which is overprinted by Quaternary folding and slip along north‐dipping backthrusts within the hanging wall of a blind, south‐dipping fault located 6 km farther north. To explain these results, we propose that the SFZ is a normal sequence fault propagation fold that has stepped northward through time, and we show the plausibility of this model through trishear forward modeling. Growth strata and faulting imaged in Quaternary sediments in Lake Washington and Rich Passage are consistent with the spatial distribution of folding and backthrusting that occurred during an M 7–7.5 earthquake in A.D. 900–930, corroborating existing evidence that the SFZ has been active throughout the Quaternary.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2024

The potential of crowdsourced data for the rapid impact assessment of large earthquakes: The 2023 M 7.8 Kahramanmaras‐Pazarcık, Turkiye, earthquake

Reliable and rapid impact assessment for large earthquakes is a challenge because it is difficult to rapidly determine the fault geometry and thus the spatial distribution of shaking intensities. In this retrospective study of the M 7.8 Kahramanmaraş‐Pazarcık, Türkiye, earthquake, we evaluate how eyewitness observations crowdsourced through the LastQuake system can improve such assessments. These data consist of felt reports describing the local level of shaking or damage and manually validated geolocated imagery. In the first part of this study, the methods used to derive macroseismic intensity values from felt reports, particularly for high values, are validated by comparison with independently determined intensities. This comparison confirms that the maximum intensity that can be derived from felt reports does not generally exceed VIII. A fatality estimate of 3000 could be made within a few hours by evaluating the number of people exposed to high intensities using the felt reports and assuming a point source. However, this estimate was known to be an underestimate because of the point‐source approximation; this underestimate was also confirmed by the geolocated imagery showing high levels of damage at epicentral distances well beyond those predicted by circular isoseismals. However, improved estimates could have been derived from the event’s ShakeMaps using the U.S. Geological Survey Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) fatality loss‐modeling system, either by incorporating the felt reports into the ShakeMaps computation or using, in addition, a finite‐source (here line‐source) model derived from the felt reports using the Finite‐fault rupture Detector software. The inclusion of fault geometry would have resulted in a fatality estimate with data collected within 10 min of the origin determination, which was consistent with the final PAGER alert level and the reported death toll that were both only known days later. Although more work would be helpful to assess the reliability of the derived fault geometry, in regions where they are collected in large numbers, felt reports collected within 10 min of the earthquake can be used to substantially improve current fatality estimates.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2012

Fundamental questions of earthquake statistics, source behavior, and the estimation of earthquake probabilities from possible foreshocks

Estimates of the probability that an M L 4.8 earthquake, which occurred near the southern end of the San Andreas fault on 24 March 2009, would be followed by an M 7 mainshock over the following three days vary from 0.0009 using a Gutenberg–Richter model of aftershock statistics (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989) to 0.04 using a statistical model of foreshock behavior and long‐term estimates of large earthquake probabilities, including characteristic earthquakes (Agnew and Jones, 1991). I demonstrate that the disparity between the existing approaches depends on whether or not they conform to Gutenberg–Richter behavior. While Gutenberg–Richter behavior is well established over large regions, it could be violated on individual faults if they have characteristic earthquakes or over small areas if the spatial distribution of large‐event nucleations is disproportional to the rate of smaller events. I develop a new form of the aftershock model that includes characteristic behavior and combines the features of both models. This new model and the older foreshock model yield the same results when given the same inputs, but the new model has the advantage of producing probabilities for events of all magnitudes, rather than just for events larger than the initial one. Compared with the aftershock model, the new model has the advantage of taking into account long‐term earthquake probability models. Using consistent parameters, the probability of an M 7 mainshock on the southernmost San Andreas fault is 0.0001 for three days from long‐term models and the clustering probabilities following the M L 4.8 event are 0.00035 for a Gutenberg–Richter distribution and 0.013 for a characteristic‐earthquake magnitude–frequency distribution. Our decisions about the existence of characteristic earthquakes and how large earthquakes nucleate have a first‐order effect on the probabilities obtained from short‐term clustering models for these large events.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2013

Potentially induced earthquakes in Oklahoma, USA: links between wastewater injection and the 2011 M w 5.7 earthquake sequence

Significant earthquakes are increasingly occurring within the continental interior of the United States, including five of moment magnitude (M w ) ≥ 5.0 in 2011 alone. Concurrently, the volume of fluid injected into the subsurface related to the production of unconventional resources continues to rise. Here we identify the largest earthquake potentially related to injection, an M w 5.7 earthquake in November 2011 in Oklahoma. The earthquake was felt in at least 17 states and caused damage in the epicentral region. It occurred in a sequence, with 2 earthquakes of M w 5.0 and a prolific sequence of aftershocks. We use the aftershocks to illuminate the faults that ruptured in the sequence, and show that the tip of the initial rupture plane is within ~200 m of active injection wells and within ~1 km of the surface; 30% of early aftershocks occur within the sedimentary section. Subsurface data indicate that fluid was injected into effectively sealed compartments, and we interpret that a net fluid volume increase after 18 yr of injection lowered effective stress on reservoir-bounding faults. Significantly, this case indicates that decades-long lags between the commencement of fluid injection and the onset of induced earthquakes are possible, and modifies our common criteria for fluid-induced events. The progressive rupture of three fault planes in this sequence suggests that stress changes from the initial rupture triggered the successive earthquakes, including one larger than the first.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2009

Is there a basis for preferring characteristic earthquakes over a Gutenberg–Richter distribution in probabilistic earthquake forecasting?

The idea that faults rupture in repeated, characteristic earthquakes is central to most probabilistic earthquake forecasts. The concept is elegant in its simplicity, and if the same event has repeated itself multiple times in the past, we might anticipate the next. In practice however, assembling a fault-segmented characteristic earthquake rupture model can grow into a complex task laden with unquantified uncertainty. We weigh the evidence that supports characteristic earthquakes against a potentially simpler model made from extrapolation of a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude-frequency law to individual fault zones. We find that the Gutenberg–Richter model satisfies key data constraints used for earthquake forecasting equally well as a characteristic model. Therefore, judicious use of instrumental and historical earthquake catalogs enables large-earthquake-rate calculations with quantifiable uncertainty that should get at least equal weighting in probabilistic forecasting.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2025

Identification of representative earthquakes for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) using earthquake rupture forecasts and machine learning

As probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) focuses more on assessments for localized, populous regions, techniques are needed to identify a subsample of representative earthquake ruptures to make the computational requirements for producing high-resolution hazard maps tractable. Moreover, the greatest epistemic uncertainty in seismic PTHA is related to source characterization, which is often poorly defined and subjective. We address these two salient issues by applying streamlined earthquake rupture forecasts (ERFs), based on combinatorial optimization methods, to an unsupervised machine learning workflow for identifying representative ruptures. ERFs determine the optimal distribution of a millennia-scale sample of earthquakes by inverting the observed slip rate on major faults. We use two previously developed combinatorial optimization ERFs, integer programming and greedy sequential, to produce the optimal location of ruptures with seismic moments sampled from a regional Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency distribution. These ruptures in turn are used to calculate peak nearshore tsunami amplitude, using computationally efficient tsunami Green's functions. An unsupervised machine learning workflow is then used to identify a small subsample of the earthquakes input to ERFs for onshore PTHA analysis. We eliminate epistemic uncertainty related to source distribution under traditional PTHA analysis; in its place, a quantifiable, less subjective and generally smaller uncertainty related to the input to ERFs is included. The Nankai subduction zone is used as a test case, where previous ERFs have been conducted. Results indicate that the locations of representative earthquakes are sensitive to choice of magnitude–area relation and to whether a minimum cumulative stress objective is imposed on the fault. In general, incorporating ERFs into PTHA provide a physically self-consistent method to incorporate fault slip information in determining representative earthquakes for onshore PTHA, eliminating a major source of epistemic uncertainty.

Nankai subduction zone↗

USGS1999

Possible cause for an improbable earthquake: The 1997 MW 4.9 southern Alabama earthquake and hydrocarbon recovery

Circumstantial and physical evidence indicates that the 1997 MW 4.9 earthquake in southern Alabama may have been related to hydrocarbon recovery. Epicenters of this earthquake and its aftershocks were located within a few kilometers of active oil and gas extraction wells and two pressurized injection wells. Main shock and aftershock focal depths (2-6 km) are within a few kilometers of the injection and withdrawal depths. Strain accumulation at geologic rates sufficient to cause rupture at these shallow focal depths is not likely. A paucity of prior seismicity is difficult to reconcile with the occurrence of an earthquake of MW 4.9 and a magnitude-frequency relationship usually assumed for natural earthquakes. The normal-fault main-shock mechanism is consistent with reactivation of preexisting faults in the regional tectonic stress field. If the earthquake were purely tectonic, however, the question arises as to why it occurred on only the small fraction of a large, regional fault system coinciding with active hydrocarbon recovery. No obvious temporal correlation is apparent between the earthquakes and recovery activities. Although thus far little can be said quantitatively about the physical processes that may have caused the 1997 sequence, a plausible explanation involves the poroelastic response of the crust to extraction of hydrocarbons.

Geology↗