Geology topics

Travis S. Schmidt

Publications and source records attributed to Travis S. Schmidt.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2022

Ecological consequences of neonicotinoid mixtures in streams

Neonicotinoid mixtures are common in streams worldwide, but corresponding ecological responses are poorly understood. We combined experimental and observational studies to narrow this knowledge gap. The mesocosm experiment determined that concentrations of the neonicotinoids imidacloprid and clothianidin (range of exposures, 0 to 11.9 μg/liter) above the hazard concentration for 5% of species (0.017 and 0.010 μg/liter, respectively) caused a loss in taxa abundance and richness, disrupted adult emergence, and altered trophodynamics, while mixtures of the two neonicotinoids caused dose-dependent synergistic effects. In 85 Coastal California streams, neonicotinoids were commonly detected [59% of samples ( n = 340), 72% of streams], frequently occurred as mixtures (56% of streams), and potential toxicity was dominated by imidacloprid (maximum = 1.92 μg/liter) and clothianidin (maximum = 2.51 μg/liter). Ecological responses in the field were consistent with the synergistic effects observed in the mesocosm experiment, indicating that neonicotinoid mixtures pose greater than expected risks to stream health.

Science Advances↗

USGS2021

Temporal influences on selenium partitioning, trophic transfer, and exposure in a major U.S. river

Hydrologic and irrigation regimes mediate the timing of selenium (Se) mobilization to rivers, but the extent to which patterns in Se uptake and trophic transfer through recipient food webs reflect the temporal variation in Se delivery is unknown. We investigated Se mobilization, partitioning, and trophic transfer along approximately 60 river miles of the selenium-impaired segment of the Lower Gunnison River (Colorado, USA) during six sampling trips between June 2015 and October 2016. We found temporal patterns in Se partitioning and trophic transfer to be independent of those in dissolved Se concentrations and that the recipient food web sustained elevated Se concentrations from earlier periods of high Se mobilization. Using an ecosystem-scale Se accumulation model tailored to the Lower Gunnison River, we predicted that the endangered Razorback Sucker ( Xyrauchen texanus ) and Colorado Pikeminnow ( Ptychocheilus lucius ) achieve whole-body Se concentrations exceeding aquatic life protection criteria during periods of high runoff and irrigation activity (April–August) that coincide with susceptible phases of reproduction and early-life development. The results of this study challenge assumptions about Se trophodynamics in fast-flowing waters and introduce important considerations for the management of Se risks for biota in river ecosystems.

Colorado↗

USGS2021

Variation in metal concentrations across a large contamination gradient is reflected in stream but not linked riparian food webs

Aquatic insects link food web dynamics across freshwater-terrestrial boundaries and subsidize terrestrial consumer populations. Contaminants that accumulate in larval aquatic insects and are retained across metamorphosis can increase dietary exposure for riparian insectivores. To better understand potential exposure of terrestrial insectivores to aquatically-derived trace metals, metal concentrations in water and tissues were analyzed from different components of streams and riparian food webs across a large (2–3 orders of magnitude) metal gradient (e.g., Zn, Cu, Cd, Pb) in the Rocky Mountains (USA). Our research indicates that the trace metal concentration gradient present among streams was lost during metamorphosis of aquatic larval insects into terrestrially flying adults, decoupling terrestrial exposures from aquatic concentrations. This pattern was caused by declines in 1) among-stream variation in trace metal concentrations, 2) relationships between metal concentrations in paired water and food web components, and 3) mean metal concentrations within aquatic food webs and across the aquatic-terrestrial boundary. Specifically, among-stream variation in trace metal concentrations was highest for water and aquatic vegetation, intermediate for aquatic insect larvae (~30% lower than water) and lowest for adult aquatic insects and riparian spiders (~65% lower). Metal concentrations in paired water and food web components ranged from highly related across the stream-metal gradient (slopes ~1) for water and aquatic vegetation, to less related (slopes closer to 0) for aquatic vegetation and aquatic insect larvae, to unrelated (slopes ~0) for aquatic larval and adult insects. Finally, mean metal concentrations were highest in aquatic vegetation and lowest in adult aquatic insects emerging from streams (~50% lower than aquatic vegetation). Our results indicate less efficient trophic transfer and higher metamorphic loss of trace metals from high metal streams (i.e., exposure-dependent transfer). For many trace metals, aquatic-terrestrial dietary transfer is unlikely to be an important source of exposure for terrestrial insectivores of adult aquatic insects.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2021

Is there an urban pesticide signature? Urban streams in five U.S. regions share common dissolved-phase pesticides but differ in predicted aquatic toxicity

Pesticides occur in urban streams globally, but the relation of occurrence to urbanization can be obscured by regional differences. In studies of five regions of the United States, we investigated the effect of region and urbanization on the occurrence and potential toxicity of dissolved pesticide mixtures. We analyzed 225 pesticide compounds in weekly discrete water samples collected during 6–12 weeks from 271 wadable streams; development in these basins ranged from undeveloped to highly urbanized. Sixteen pesticides were consistently detected in 16 urban centers across the five regions—we propose that these pesticides comprise a suite of urban signature pesticides (USP) that are all common in small U.S. urban streams. These USPs accounted for the majority of summed maximum pesticide concentrations at urban sites within each urban center. USP concentrations, mixture complexity, and potential toxicity increased with the degree of urbanization in the basin. Basin urbanization explained the most variability in multivariate distance-based models of pesticide profiles, with region always secondary in importance. The USPs accounted for 83% of pesticides in the 20 most frequently occurring 2-compound unique mixtures at urban sites, with carbendazim+prometon the most common. Although USPs were consistently detected in all regions, detection frequencies and concentrations varied by region, conferring differences in potential aquatic toxicity. Potential toxicity was highest for invertebrates (benchmarks exceeded in 51% of urban streams), due most often to the neonicotinoid insecticide imidacloprid and secondarily to organophosphate insecticides and fipronil. Benchmarks were rarely exceeded in urban streams for plants (at 3% of sites) or fish (<1%). We propose that the USPs identified here would make logical core (nonexclusive) constituents for monitoring dissolved pesticides in U.S. urban streams, and that unique mixtures containing imidacloprid, fipronil, and carbendazim are priority candidates for mixtures toxicity testing.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2021

Multiple in-stream stressors degrade biological assemblages in five U.S. regions

Biological assemblages in streams are affected by a wide variety of physical and chemical stressors associated with land-use development, yet the importance of combinations of different types of stressors is not well known. From 2013 to 2017, the U.S. Geological Survey completed multi-stressor/multi-assemblage stream ecological assessments in five regions of the United States (434 streams total). Diatom, invertebrate, and fish communities were enumerated, and five types of potential stressors were quantified: habitat disturbance, excess nutrients, high flows, basic water quality, and contaminants in water and sediment. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models for each biological assemblage and region generally included variables from all five stressor types and multiple stressors types in each model was the norm. Classification and regression tree (CART) models then were used to determine thresholds for each BRT model variable above which there appeared to be adverse effects (multi-metric index (MMI) models only). In every region and assemblage there was a significant inverse relation between the MMI and the number of stressors exerting potentially adverse effects. The number of elevated instream stressors often varied substantially for a given level of land-use development and the number of elevated stressors was a better predictor of biological condition than was development. Using the adverse effects-levels that were developed based on the BRT model results, 68% of the streams had two or more stressors with potentially adverse effects and 35% had four or more. Our results indicate that relatively small increases in the number of stressors of different types can have a large effect on a stream ecosystem.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2020

Biofilms provide new insight into pesticide occurrence in streams and links to aquatic ecological communities

Streambed sediment is commonly analyzed to assess occurrence of hydrophobic pesticides and risks to aquatic communities. However, stream biofilms also have the potential to accumulate pesticides and may be consumed by aquatic organisms. To better characterize risks to aquatic life, the U.S. Geological Survey Regional Stream Quality Assessment measured 93 current-use and 3 legacy pesticides in bed sediment and biofilm from 54 small streams in California across a range of land-use settings. On average, 4 times as many current-use pesticides were detected in biofilm at a site (median of 2) as in sediment (median of 0.5). Of 31 current-use pesticides detected, 20 were detected more frequently in biofilm than sediment and 10 equally frequently. Pyrethroids as a class were the most potentially toxic to benthic invertebrates, and of the nine pyrethroids detected, seven occurred more frequently in biofilm than sediment. We constructive General Additive Models to investigate relations between pesticides and six metrics of benthic community structure. Pesticides in biofilm improved fit in four of the six models, and pesticides in sediment improved fit in two. The results indicate that sampling of stream biofilms can complement bed-sediment sampling by identifying more current-use pesticides present and better estimating ecological risks.

California↗

USGS2020

Mercury and selenium concentrations in fishes of the Upper Colorado River Basin, southwestern United States: A retrospective assessment

Mercury (Hg) and selenium (Se) are contaminants of concern for fish in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). We explored Hg and Se in fish tissues (2,324 individuals) collected over 50 years (1962–2011) from the UCRB. Samples include native and non-native fish collected from lotic waterbodies spanning 7 major tributaries to the Colorado River. There was little variation of total mercury (THg) in fish assemblages basin-wide and only 13% (272/1959) of individual fish samples exceeded the fish health benchmark (0.27 μg THg/g ww). Most THg exceedances were observed in the White-Yampa tributary whereas the San Juan had the lowest mean THg concentration. Risks associated with THg are species specific with exceedances dominated by Colorado Pikeminnow (mean = 0.38 and standard error ± 0.08 μg THg/g ww) and Roundtail Chub (0.24 ± 0.06 μg THg/g ww). For Se, 48% (827/1720) of all individuals exceeded the fish health benchmark (5.1 μg Se/g dw). The Gunnison river had the most individual exceedances of the Se benchmark (74%) whereas the Dirty Devil had the fewest. We identified that species of management concern accumulate THg and Se to levels above risk thresholds and that fishes of the White-Yampa (THg) and Gunnison (Se) rivers are at the greatest risk in the UCRB.

Upper Colorado River Basin↗

USGS2020

Bioaccumulation and toxicity of cadmium, copper, nickel, and zinc and their mixtures to aquatic insect communities

We describe 2 artificial stream experiments that exposed aquatic insect communities to zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), and cadmium (year 2014) and to Zn, Cu, and nickel (year 2015). The testing strategy was to concurrently expose insect communities to single metals and mixtures. Single-metal tests were repeated to evaluate the reproducibility of the methods and year-to-year variability. Metals were strongly accumulated in sediments, periphyton, and insect (caddisfly) tissues, with the highest concentrations occurring in periphyton. Sensitive mayflies declined in metal treatments, and effect concentrations could be predicted effectively from metal concentrations in either periphyton or water. Most responses were similar in the replicated tests, but median effect concentration values for the mayfly Rhithrogena sp. varied 20-fold between the tests, emphasizing the difficulty comparing sensitivities across studies and the value of repeated testing. Relative to the single-metal responses, the toxicity of the mixtures was either approximately additive or less than additive when calculated as the product of individual responses (response addition). However, even less-than-additive relative responses were sometimes greater than responses to similar concentrations tested singly. The ternary mixtures resulted in mayfly declines at concentrations that caused no declines in the concurrent single-metal tests. When updating species-sensitivity distributions (SSDs) with these results, the mayfly responses were among the most sensitive 10th percentile of available data for all 4 metals, refuting older literature placing mayflies in the insensitive portion of metal SSDs. Testing translocated aquatic insect communities in 30-d artificial streams is an efficient approach to generate multiple species effect values under quasi-natural conditions that are relevant to natural streams.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2020

Time-dependent accumulation of Cd, Co, Cu, Ni, and Zn in mayfly and caddisfly larvae in experimental streams: Metal sensitivity, uptake pathways, and mixture toxicity

Conceptual and quantitative models were developed to assess time-dependent processes in four sequential experimental stream studies that determined abundances of natural communities of mayfly and caddisfly larvae dosed with single metals (Cd, Co, Cu, Ni, Zn) or multiple metals (Cd+Zn, Co+Cu, Cu+Ni, Cu+Zn, Ni+Zn, Cd+Cu+Zn, Co+Cu+Ni, Cu+Ni+Zn). Metal mixtures contained environmentally relevant metal ratios found in mine drainage. Free metal ion concentrations, accumulation of metals by periphyton, and metal uptake by four families of aquatic insect larvae were either measured (Brachycentridae) or predicted (Ephemerellidae, Heptageniidae, Hydropsychidae) using equilibrium and biodynamic models. Toxicity functions, which included metal accumulations by larvae and metal potencies, were linked to abundances of the insect families. Model results indicated that mayflies accumulated more metal than caddisflies and the relative importance of metal uptake by larvae via dissolved or dietary pathways highly depended on metal uptake rate constants for each insect family and concentrations of metals in food and water. For solution compositions in the experimental streams, accumulations of Cd, Cu, and Zn in larvae occurred primarily through dietary uptake, whereas uptake of dissolved metal was more important for Co and Ni accumulations. Cd, Cu, and Ni were major contributors to toxicity in metal mixtures and for metal ratios examined. Our conceptual approach and quantitative results should aid in designing laboratory experiments and field studies that evaluate metal uptake pathways and metal mixture toxicity to aquatic biota.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2020

Common insecticide disrupts aquatic communities: A mesocosm-to-field ecological risk assessment of fipronil and its degradates in U.S. streams

Insecticides in streams are increasingly a global concern, yet information on safe concentrations for aquatic ecosystems is sparse. In a 30-day mesocosm experiment exposing native benthic aquatic invertebrates to the common insecticide fipronil and four degradates, fipronil compounds caused altered emergence and trophic cascades. Effect concentrations eliciting a 50% response (EC 50 ) were developed for fipronil and its sulfide, sulfone, and desulfinyl degradates; taxa were insensitive to fipronil amide. Hazard concentrations for 5% of affected species derived from up to 15 mesocosm EC 50 values were used to convert fipronil compound concentrations in field samples to the sum of toxic units (∑TU Fipronils ). Mean ∑TU Fipronils exceeded 1 (indicating toxicity) in 16% of streams sampled from five regional studies. The Species at Risk invertebrate metric was negatively associated with ∑TU Fipronils in four of five regions sampled. This ecological risk assessment indicates that low concentrations of fipronil compounds degrade stream communities in multiple regions of the United States.

Science Advances↗

USGS2019

Projected urban growth in the Southeastern USA puts small streams at risk

Future land-use development has the potential to profoundly affect the health of aquatic ecosystems in the coming decades. We developed regression models predicting the loss of sensitive fish (R2=0.39) and macroinvertebrate (R2=0.64) taxa as a function of urban and agricultural land uses and applied them to projected urbanization of the rapidly urbanizing Piedmont ecoregion of the southeastern USA for 2030 and 2060. The regression models are based on a 2014 investigation of water quality and ecology of 75 wadeable streams across the region. Based on these projections, stream kilometers experiencing >50% loss of sensitive fish and invertebrate taxa will nearly quadruple to 19,500 and 38,950 km by 2060 (16 and 32% of small stream kilometers in the region), respectively. Uncertainty was assessed using the 20 and 80% probability of urbanization for the land-use projection model and using the 95% confidence intervals for the regression models. Adverse effects on stream health were linked to elevated concentrations of contaminants and nutrients, low dissolved oxygen, and streamflow alteration, all associated with urbanization. The results of this analysis provide a warning of potential risks from future urbanization and perhaps some guidance on how those risks might be mitigated.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2019

Benthic algal (Periphyton) growth rates in response to nitrogen and phosphorus: Parameter estimation for water quality models

Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are important pollutants that can stimulate nuisance blooms of algae. Water-quality models (e.g., WASP, CE-QUAL-R1, CE-QUAL-ICM, QUAL2k) are valuable and widely used management tools for algal accrual because of excess nutrients in the presence of other limiting factors. These models utilize the Monod and Droop equations to associate algal growth rate with dissolved nutrient concentration and intra-cellular nutrient concentration. Having accurate parameter values is essential to model performance; however, published values for model parameterization are limited, particularly for benthic (periphyton) algae. We conducted a 10-day mesocosm experiment and measured diatom-dominated periphyton biomass accrual through time as chlorophyll a (chl a) and ash-free dry mass (AFDM) in response to additions of N (range 5-12,390 µg NO3-N/L) and P (range 0.89-59.51 µg SRP/L). Resulting half saturation coefficients and growth rates are similar to other published values, but minimum intra-cellular nutrient concentration (quota, Qmin) are higher than those previously reported. Saturation concentration for N ranged from 150 to 2450 µg NO3-N/L based on chl a and from 8.5 to 60 µg NO3-N/L when based on AFDM. Similarly, the saturation concentration for P ranged from 12 to 29 µg-P/L based on chl a, and from 2.5 to 6.1 µg-P/L based on AFDM. These saturation concentrations provide an upper limit for streams where diatom growth can be expected to respond to nutrient levels and a benchmark for reducing nutrient concentrations to a point where benthic algal growth will be limited.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2018

Linking the agricultural landscape of the Midwest to stream health with structural equation modeling

Multiple physical and chemical stressors can simultaneously affect the biological condition of streams. To better understand the complex interactions of land-use practices, water quality, and ecological integrity of streams, the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment Project is conducting regional-scale assessments of stream condition across the United States. In the summer of 2013, weekly water samples were collected from 100 streams in the Midwestern United States. Employing watershed theory, we used structural equation modeling (SEM) to represent a general hypothesis for how 16 variables (previously identified to be important to stream condition) might be inter-related. Again, using SEM, we evaluated the ability of this “stressor network” to explain variations in multimetrics of algal, invertebrate, and fish community health, trimming away any environmental variables not contributing to an explanation of the ecological responses. Seven environmental variables—agricultural and urban land use, sand content of soils, basin area, percent riparian area as forest, channel erosion, and relative bed stability—were found to be important for all three-community metrics. The algal and invertebrate models included water-chemistry variables not included in the fish model. Results suggest that ecological integrity of Midwest streams are affected by both agricultural and urban land uses and by the natural geologic setting, as indicated by the sand content of soils. Chemicals related to crops (pesticides and nutrients) and residential uses (pyrethroids) were found to be more strongly related to ecological integrity than were natural factors (riparian forest, watershed soil character).

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2018

Understanding the captivity effect on invertebrate communities transplanted into an experimental stream laboratory

Little is known about how design and testing methodologies affect the macroinvertebrate communities that are held captive in mesocosms. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a 32‐d test to determine how seeded invertebrate communities changed once removed from the natural stream and introduced to the laboratory. We evaluated larvae survival and adult emergence in controls from 4 subsequent studies, as well as corresponding within‐river community changes. The experimental streams maintained about 80% of the invertebrates that originally colonized the introduced substrates. Many macroinvertebrate populations experienced changes in numbers through time, suggesting that these taxa are unlikely to maintain static populations throughout studies. For example, some taxa (Tanytarsini, Simuliidae, Cinygmula sp.) increased in number, grew (Simuliidae), and possibly recruited new individuals (Baetidae) as larvae, while several also completed other life history events (pupation and emergence) during the 30‐ to 32‐d studies. Midges and mayflies dominated emergence, further supporting the idea that conditions are conducive for many taxa to complete their life cycles while held captive in the experimental streams. However, plecopterans were sensitive to temperature changes >2 °C between river and laboratory. Thus, this experimental stream testing approach can support diverse larval macroinvertebrate communities for durations consistent with some chronic criterion development and life cycle assessments (i.e., 30 d). The changes in communities held captive in the experimental streams were mostly consistent with the parallel changes observed from in situ river samples, indicating that mesocosm results are reasonably representative of real river insect communities.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2018

Quantifying differences in responses of aquatic insects to trace metal exposure in field studies and short-term stream mesocosm experiments

Characterizing macroinvertebrate taxa as either sensitive or tolerant is of critical importance for investigating impacts of anthropogenic stressors in aquatic ecosystems and for inferring causality. However, our understanding of relative sensitivity of aquatic insects to metals in the field and under controlled conditions in the laboratory or mesocosm experiments is limited. In this study, we compared the response of 16 lotic macroinvertebrate families to metals in short-term (10-day) stream mesocosm experiments and in a spatially extensive field study of 154 Colorado streams. Comparisons of field and mesocosm-derived EC 20 (effect concentration of 20%) values showed that aquatic insects were generally more sensitive to metals in the field. Although the ranked sensitivity to metals was similar for many families, we observed large differences between field and mesocosm responses for some groups (e.g., Baetidae and Heptageniidae). These differences most likely resulted from the inability of short-term experiments to account for factors such as dietary exposure to metals, rapid recolonization in the field, and effects of metals on sensitive life stages. Understanding mechanisms responsible for differences among field, mesocosm, and laboratory approaches would improve our ability to predict contaminant effects and establish ecologically meaningful water-quality criteria.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2018

Disentangling the effects of low pH and metal mixture toxicity on macroinvertebrate diversity

One of the primary goals of biological assessment of streams is to identify which of a suite of chemical stressors is limiting their ecological potential. Elevated metal concentrations in streams are often associated with low pH, yet the effects of these two potentially limiting factors of freshwater biodiversity are rarely considered to interact beyond the effects of pH on metal speciation. Using a dataset from two continents, a biogeochemical model of the toxicity of metal mixtures (Al, Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn) and quantile regression, we addressed the relative importance of both pH and metals as limiting factors for macroinvertebrate communities. Current environmental quality standards for metals proved to be protective of stream macroinvertebrate communities and were used as a starting point to assess metal mixture toxicity. A model of metal mixture toxicity accounting for metal interactions was a better predictor of macroinvertebrate responses than a model considering individual metal toxicity. We showed that the direct limiting effect of pH on richness was of the same magnitude as that of chronic metal toxicity, independent of its influence on the availability and toxicity of metals. By accounting for the direct effect of pH on macroinvertebrate communities, we were able to determine that acidic streams supported less diverse communities than neutral streams even when metals were below no-effect thresholds. Through a multivariate quantile model, we untangled the limiting effect of both pH and metals and predicted the maximum diversity that could be expected at other sites as a function of these variables. This model can be used to identify which of the two stressors is more limiting to the ecological potential of running waters.

Environmental Pollution↗

USGS2018

Complex mixtures of dissolved pesticides show potential aquatic toxicity in a synoptic study of Midwestern U.S. streams

Aquatic organisms in streams are exposed to pesticide mixtures that vary in composition over time in response to changes in flow conditions, pesticide inputs to the stream, and pesticide fate and degradation within the stream. To characterize mixtures of dissolved-phase pesticides and degradates in Midwestern streams, a synoptic study was conducted at 100 streams during May–August 2013. In weekly water samples, 94 pesticides and 89 degradates were detected, with a median of 25 compounds detected per sample and 54 detected per site. In a screening-level assessment using aquatic-life benchmarks and the Pesticide Toxicity Index (PTI), potential effects on fish were unlikely in most streams. For invertebrates, potential chronic toxicity was predicted in 53% of streams, punctuated in 12% of streams by acutely toxic exposures. For aquatic plants, acute but likely reversible effects on biomass were predicted in 75% of streams, with potential longer-term effects on plant communities in 9% of streams. Relatively few pesticides in water—atrazine, acetochlor, metolachlor, imidacloprid, fipronil, organophosphate insecticides, and carbendazim—were predicted to be major contributors to potential toxicity. Agricultural streams had the highest potential for effects on plants, especially in May–June, corresponding to high spring-flush herbicide concentrations. Urban streams had higher detection frequencies and concentrations of insecticides and most fungicides than in agricultural streams, and higher potential for invertebrate toxicity, which peaked during July–August. Toxicity-screening predictions for invertebrates were supported by quantile regressions showing significant associations for the Benthic Invertebrate-PTI and imidacloprid concentrations with invertebrate community metrics for MSQA streams, and by mesocosm toxicity testing with imidacloprid showing effects on invertebrate communities at environmentally relevant concentrations. This study documents the most complex pesticide mixtures yet reported in discrete water samples in the U.S. and, using multiple lines of evidence, predicts that pesticides were potentially toxic to nontarget aquatic life in about half of the sampled streams.

Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnes↗

USGS2017

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade -1 increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade -1 , and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade -1 . Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.

PLoS ONE↗