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Geology topics

T.J. Stohlgren

Publications and source records attributed to T.J. Stohlgren.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2017

Distributional changes and range predictions of downy brome (Bromus tectorum) in Rocky Mountain National Park

Downy brome (Bromus tectorum L.), an invasive winter annual grass, may be increasing in extent and abundance at high elevations in the western United States. This would pose a great threat to high-elevation plant communities and resources. However, data to track this species in high-elevation environments are limited. To address changes in the distribution and abundance of downy brome and the factors most associated with its occurrence, we used field sampling and statistical methods, and niche modeling. In 2007, we resampled plots from two vegetation surveys in Rocky Mountain National Park for presence and cover of downy brome. One survey was established in 1993 and had been resampled in 1999. The other survey was established in 1996 and had not been resampled until our study. Although not all comparisons between years demonstrated significant changes in downy brome abundance, its mean cover increased nearly fivefold from 1993 (0.7%) to 2007 (3.6%) in one of the two vegetation surveys (P = 0.06). Although the average cover of downy brome within the second survey appeared to be increasing from 1996 to 2007, this slight change from 0.5% to 1.2% was not statistically significant (P = 0.24). Downy brome was present in 50% more plots in 1999 than in 1993 (P = 0.02) in the first survey. In the second survey, downy brome was present in 30% more plots in 2007 than in 1996 (P = 0.08). Maxent, a species-environmental matching model, was generally able to predict occurrences of downy brome, as new locations were in the ranges predicted by earlier generated models. The model found that distance to roads, elevation, and vegetation community influenced the predictions most. The strong response of downy brome to interannual environmental variability makes detecting change challenging, especially with small sample sizes. However, our results suggest that the area in which downy brome occurs is likely increasing in Rocky Mountain National Park through increased frequency and cover. Field surveys along with predictive modeling will be vital in directing efforts to manage this highly invasive species. ?? Weed Science Society of America 2011.

Invasive Plant Science and Management↗
USGS2010

Ensemble habitat mapping of invasive plant species

Ensemble species distribution models combine the strengths of several species environmental matching models, while minimizing the weakness of any one model. Ensemble models may be particularly useful in risk analysis of recently arrived, harmful invasive species because species may not yet have spread to all suitable habitats, leaving species-environment relationships difficult to determine. We tested five individual models (logistic regression, boosted regression trees, random forest, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), and maximum entropy model or Maxent) and ensemble modeling for selected nonnative plant species in Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks, Wyoming; Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, California, and areas of interior Alaska. The models are based on field data provided by the park staffs, combined with topographic, climatic, and vegetation predictors derived from satellite data. For the four invasive plant species tested, ensemble models were the only models that ranked in the top three models for both field validation and test data. Ensemble models may be more robust than individual species-environment matching models for risk analysis. ?? 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk Analysis↗
USGS2008

Effects of past logging and grazing on understory plant communities in a montane Colorado forest

Throughout Pinus ponderosa-Pseudotsuga menziesii forests of the southern Colorado Front Range, USA, intense logging and domestic grazing began at the time of Euro-American settlement in the late 1800s and continued until the early 1900s. We investigated the long-term impacts of these settlement-era activities on understory plant communities by comparing understory composition at a historically logged and grazed site to that of an environmentally similar site which was protected from past use. We found that species richness and cover within functional groups rarely differed between sites in either upland or riparian areas. Multivariate analyses revealed little difference in species composition between sites on uplands, though compositional differences were apparent in riparian zones. Our findings suggest that settlement-era logging and grazing have had only minor long-term impacts on understories of upland Front Range P. ponderosa-P. menziesii forests, though they have had a greater long-term influence on riparian understories, where these activities were likely the most intense. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Plant Ecology↗
USGS2008

Modelling invasion for a habitat generalist and a specialist plant species

Predicting suitable habitat and the potential distribution of invasive species is a high priority for resource managers and systems ecologists. Most models are designed to identify habitat characteristics that define the ecological niche of a species with little consideration to individual species' traits. We tested five commonly used modelling methods on two invasive plant species, the habitat generalist Bromus tectorum and habitat specialist Tamarix chinensis, to compare model performances, evaluate predictability, and relate results to distribution traits associated with each species. Most of the tested models performed similarly for each species; however, the generalist species proved to be more difficult to predict than the specialist species. The highest area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values with independent validation data sets of B. tectorum and T. chinensis was 0.503 and 0.885, respectively. Similarly, a confusion matrix for B. tectorum had the highest overall accuracy of 55%, while the overall accuracy for T. chinensis was 85%. Models for the generalist species had varying performances, poor evaluations, and inconsistent results. This may be a result of a generalist's capability to persist in a wide range of environmental conditions that are not easily defined by the data, independent variables or model design. Models for the specialist species had consistently strong performances, high evaluations, and similar results among different model applications. This is likely a consequence of the specialist's requirement for explicit environmental resources and ecological barriers that are easily defined by predictive models. Although defining new invaders as generalist or specialist species can be challenging, model performances and evaluations may provide valuable information on a species' potential invasiveness.

Diversity and Distributions↗
USGS2007

Rapid plant diversity assessment using a pixel nested plot design: A case study in Beaver Meadows, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA

Geospatial statistical modelling and thematic maps have recently emerged as effective tools for the management of natural areas at the landscape scale. Traditional methods for the collection of field data pertaining to questions of landscape were developed without consideration for the parameters of these applications. We introduce an alternative field sampling design based on smaller unbiased random plot and subplot locations called the pixel nested plot (PNP). We demonstrate the applicability of the PNP design of 15 m x 15 m to assess patterns of plant diversity and species richness across the landscape at Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP), Colorado, USA in a time (cost)-efficient manner for field data collection. Our results produced comparable results to a previous study in the Beaver Meadow study (BMS) area within RMNP, where there was a demonstrated focus of plant diversity. Our study used the smaller PNP sampling design for field data collection which could be linked to geospatial information data and could be used for landscape-scale analyses and assessment applications. In 2003, we established 61 PNP in the eastern region of RMNP. We present a comparison between this approach using a sub-sample of 19 PNP from this data set and 20 of Modified Whittaker nested plots (MWNP) of 20 m x 50 m that were collected in the BMS area. The PNP captured 266 unique plant species while the MWNP captured 275 unique species. Based on a comparison of PNP and MWNP in the Beaver Meadows area, RMNP, the PNP required less time and area sampled to achieve a similar number of species sampled. Using the PNP approach for data collection can facilitate the ecological monitoring of these vulnerable areas at the landscape scale in a time- and therefore cost-effective manner. ?? 2007 The Authors.

Diversity and Distributions↗
USGS2007

Assessing exotic plant species invasions and associated soil characteristics: A case study in eastern Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA, using the pixel nested plot design

Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP), Colorado, USA, contains a diversity of plant species. However, many exotic plant species have become established, potentially impacting the structure and function of native plant communities. Our goal was to quantify patterns of exotic plant species in relation to native plant species, soil characteristics, and other abiotic factors that may indicate or predict their establishment and success. Our research approach for field data collection was based on a field plot design called the pixel nested plot. The pixel nested plot provides a link to multi-phase and multi-scale spatial modeling-mapping techniques that can be used to estimate total species richness and patterns of plant diversity at finer landscape scales. Within the eastern region of RMNP, in an area of approximately 35,000 ha, we established a total of 60 pixel nested plots in 9 vegetation types. We used canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) and multiple linear regressions to quantify relationships between soil characteristics and native and exotic plant species richness and cover. We also used linear correlation, spatial autocorrelation and cross correlation statistics to test for the spatial patterns of variables of interest. CCA showed that exotic species were significantly (P < 0.05) associated with photosynthetically active radiation (r = 0.55), soil nitrogen (r = 0.58) and bare ground (r = -0.66). Pearson's correlation statistic showed significant linear relationships between exotic species, organic carbon, soil nitrogen, and bare ground. While spatial autocorrelations indicated that our 60 pixel nested plots were spatially independent, the cross correlation statistics indicated that exotic plant species were spatially associated with bare ground, in general, exotic plant species were most abundant in areas of high native species richness. This indicates that resource managers should focus on the protection of relatively rare native rich sites with little canopy cover, and fertile soils. Using the pixel nested plot approach for data collection can facilitate the ecological monitoring of these vulnerable areas at the landscape scale in a time- and cost-effective manner. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Applied Soil Ecology↗
USGS2007

Species-area curves indicate the importance of habitats' contributions to regional biodiversity

We examined species-area curves, species composition and similarity (Jaccard's coefficients), and species richness in 17 vegetation types to develop a composite index of a vegetation type's contribution to regional species richness. We collected data from 1 to 1000 m2 scales in 147 nested plots in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA to compare three species-area curve models' abilities to estimate the number of species observed in each vegetation type. The log(species)-log(area) curve had the largest adjusted coefficients of determination (r2 values) in 12 of the 17 types, followed by the species-log(area) curve with five of the highest values. When the slopes of the curves were corrected for species overlap among plots with Jaccard's coefficients, the species-log(area) curves estimated values closest to those observed. We combined information from species-area curves and measures of heterogeneity with information on the area covered by each vegetation type and found that the types making the greatest contributions to regional biodiversity covered the smallest areas. This approach may provide an accurate and relatively rapid way to rank hotspots of plant diversity within regions of interest.

Colorado↗
USGS2007

Rapid assessment of postfire plant invasions in coniferous forests of the western United States

Fire is a natural part of most forest ecosystems in the western United States, but its effects on nonnative plant invasion have only recently been studied. Also, forest managers are engaging in fuel reduction projects to lessen fire severity, often without considering potential negative ecological consequences such as nonnative plant species introductions. Increased availability of light, nutrients, and bare ground have all been associated with high-severity fires and fuel treatments and are known to aid in the establishment of nonnative plant species. We use vegetation and environmental data collected after wildfires at seven sites in coniferous forests in the western United States to study responses of nonnative plants to wildfire. We compared burned vs. unburned plots and plots treated with mechanical thinning and/or prescribed burning vs. untreated plots for nonnative plant species richness and cover and used correlation analyses to infer the effect of abiotic site conditions on invasibility. Wildfire was responsible for significant increases in nonnative species richness and cover, and a significant decrease in native cover. Mechanical thinning and prescribed fire fuel treatments were associated with significant changes in plant species composition at some sites. Treatment effects across sites were minimal and inconclusive due to significant site and site x treatment interaction effects caused by variation between sites including differences in treatment and fire severities and initial conditions (e.g., nonnative species sources). We used canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) to determine what combinations of environmental variables best explained patterns of nonnative plant species richness and cover. Variables related to fire severity, soil nutrients, and elevation explained most of the variation in species composition. Nonnative species were generally associated with sites with higher fire severity, elevation, percentage of bare ground, and lower soil nutrient levels and lower canopy cover. Early assessments of postfire stand conditions can guide rapid responses to nonnative plant invasions. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Western United States↗
USGS2007

Modeling aboveground biomass of Tamarix ramosissima in the Arkansas River Basin of Southeastern Colorado, USA

Predictive models of aboveground biomass of nonnative Tamarix ramosissima of various sizes were developed using destructive sampling techniques on 50 individuals and four 100-m2 plots. Each sample was measured for average height (m) of stems and canopy area (m2) prior to cutting, drying, and weighing. Five competing regression models (P < 0.05) were developed to estimate aboveground biomass of T. ramosissima using average height and/or canopy area measurements and were evaluated using Akaike's Information Criterion corrected for small sample size (AICc). Our best model (AICc = -148.69, ??AICc = 0) successfully predicted T. ramosissima aboveground biomass (R2 = 0.97) and used average height and canopy area as predictors. Our 2nd-best model, using the same predictors, was also successful in predicting aboveground biomass (R2 = 0.97, AICc = -131.71, ??AICc = 16.98). A 3rd model demonstrated high correlation between only aboveground biomass and canopy area (R2 = 0.95), while 2 additional models found high correlations between aboveground biomass and average height measurements only (R2 = 0.90 and 0.70, respectively). These models illustrate how simple field measurements, such as height and canopy area, can be used in allometric relationships to accurately predict aboveground biomass of T. ramosissima. Although a correction factor may be necessary for predictions at larger scales, the models presented will prove useful for many research and management initiatives.

Western North American Naturalist↗
USGS2006

Filling in the gaps: Modelling native species richness and invasions using spatially incomplete data

Detailed knowledge of patterns of native species richness, an important component of biodiversity, and non-native species invasions is often lacking even though this knowledge is essential to conservation efforts. However, we cannot afford to wait for complete information on the distribution and abundance of native and harmful invasive species. Using information from counties well surveyed for plants across the USA, we developed models to fill data gaps in poorly surveyed areas by estimating the density (number of species km -2) of native and non-native plant species. Here, we show that native plant species density is non-random, predictable, and is the best predictor of non-native plant species density. We found that eastern agricultural sites and coastal areas are among the most invaded in terms of non-native plant species densities, and that the central USA appears to have the greatest ratio of non-native to native species. These large-scale models could also be applied to smaller spatial scales or other taxa to set priorities for conservation and invasion mitigation, prevention, and control efforts. ?? 2006 The Authors.

Diversity and Distributions↗
USGS2006

A tamarisk habitat suitability map for the continental US

This paper presents a national-scale map of habitat suitability for tamarisk ( Tamarix spp, salt cedar), a high-priority invasive species. We successfully integrate satellite data and tens of thousands of field sampling points through logistic regression modeling to create a habitat suitability map that is 90% accurate. This interagency effort uses field data collected and coordinated through the US Geological Survey and nationwide environmental data layers derived from NASA's MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We demonstrate the use of the map by ranking the 48 continental US states (and the District of Columbia) based on their absolute, as well as proportional, areas of “highly likely” and “moderately likely” habitat for Tamarix . The interagency effort and modeling approach presented here could be used to map other harmful species, in the US and globally.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2006

Evaluating plant invasions from both habitat and species perspectives

We present an approach to quantitatively assess nonnative plant invasions at landscape scales from both habitat and species perspectives. Our case study included 34 nonnative species found in 142 plots (0.1 ha) in 14 vegetation types within the Grand Staircase&ndash;Escalante National Monument, Utah. A plot invasion index, based on nonnative species richness and cover, showed that only 16 of 142 plots were heavily invaded. A species invasive index, based on frequency, cover, and number of vegetation types invaded, showed that only 7 of 34 plant species were highly invasive. Multiple regressions using habitat characteristics (moisture index, elevation, soil P, native species richness, maximum crust development class, bare ground, and rock) explained 60% of variation in nonnative species richness and 46% of variation in nonnative species cover. Three mesic habitats (aspen, wet meadow, and perennial riparian types) were particularly invaded (31 of 34 nonnative species studied were found in these types). Species-specific logistic regression models for the 7 most invasive species correctly predicted occurrence 89% of the time on average (from 80% for Bromus tectorum , a habitat generalist, to 93% for Tamarix spp., a habitat specialist). Even with such a modest sampling intensity (<0.1% of the landscape), this multiscale sampling scheme was effective at evaluating habitat vulnerability to invasion and the occurrence of the 7 most invasive nonnative species. This approach could be applied in other natural areas to develop strategies to document invasive species and invaded habitats.

Utah↗
USGS2006

Scale and plant invasions: A theory of biotic acceptance

We examined the relationship between native and alien plant species richness, cover, and estimated biomass at multiple spatial scales. The large dataset included 70511-m2 subplots, 1443 10-m2 subplots, and 727100-m2 subplots, nested in 727 1000-m2 plots in 37 natural vegetation types in seven states in the central United States. We found that native and alien species richness (averaged across the vegetation types) increased significantly with plot area. Furthermore, the relationship between native and alien species richness became increasingly positive and significant from the plant neighbourhood scale (1-m2) to the 10-m2, 100-m2, and the 1000-m2 scale where over 80% of the vegetation types had positive slopes between native and alien species richness. Both native and alien plant species may be responding to increased resource availability and/or habitat heterogeneity with increased area. We found significant positive relationships between the coefficient of variation of native cover in 1-m2 subplots in a vegetation type (i.e. a measure of habitat heterogeneity), and both the relative cover and relative biomass of alien plant species. At the 1000-m2 scale, we did find weak negative relationships between native species richness and the cover, biomass, and relative cover of alien plant species. However, we found very strong positive relationships between alien species richness and the cover, relative cover, and relative biomass of alien species at regional scales. These results, along with many other field studies in natural ecosystems, show that the dominant genera pattern in invasion ecology at multiple spatial scales is one of "biotic acceptance" where natural ecosystems tend to accommodate the establishment and coexistence of introduced species despite the presence and abundance of native species.

Preslia↗
USGS2005

Risk analysis for biological hazards: What we need to know about invasive species

Risk analysis for biological invasions is similar to other types of natural and human hazards. For example, risk analysis for chemical spills requires the evaluation of basic information on where a spill occurs; exposure level and toxicity of the chemical agent; knowledge of the physical processes involved in its rate and direction of spread; and potential impacts to the environment, economy, and human health relative to containment costs. Unlike typical chemical spills, biological invasions can have long lag times from introduction and establishment to successful invasion, they reproduce, and they can spread rapidly by physical and biological processes. We use a risk analysis framework to suggest a general strategy for risk analysis for invasive species and invaded habitats. It requires: (1) problem formation (scoping the problem, defining assessment endpoints); (2) analysis (information on species traits, matching species traits to suitable habitats, estimating exposure, surveys of current distribution and abundance); (3) risk characterization (understanding of data completeness, estimates of the “potential” distribution and abundance; estimates of the potential rate of spread; and probable risks, impacts, and costs); and (4) risk management (containment potential, costs, and opportunity costs; legal mandates and social considerations and information science and technology needs).

Risk Analysis↗
USGS2005

Life-history habitat matching in invading non-native plant species

We briefly reviewed the literature on habitat matching in invading non-native plant species. Then we hypothesized that the richness and cover of native annual and perennial plant species integrate complex local information of vegetation and soils that would help to predict invasion success by similarly adapted non-native plant species. We tested these ‘life-history habitat matching’ relationships in 603 0.1-ha plots, including 294 plots in Colorado, which were relatively high for the cover of native perennial plant species, and for 309 0.1-ha plots in southern Utah, which were relatively high in the cover of native annual plant species. We found strong positive relationships between the richness and foliar cover for both native and non-native species, whether they were annual or perennial species (0.34 > r 2 < 0.53; P < 0.0001). We also found significant positive relationships between the cover of native annual species at a site and the richness ( r 2 = 0.13; P < 0.0001) and the foliar cover ( r 2 = 0.06; P < 0.0001) of non-native annual species. The proportion of non-native annual species in the flora of a plot also increased significantly with the foliar cover of native annual species. Conversely, the richness and cover of non-native annual species were significantly negatively associated with the foliar cover of native perennial species ( r 2 = 0.05 and 0.06, respectively; P < 0.0001). The cover of non-native annual or perennial species was not significantly correlated with soil texture variables, %N, or %C. We conclude that there may be a high degree of life-history habitat matching by non-native annual species in these study sites. Information on native annual and perennial species richness and cover may help characterize the complex soils, climate, and disturbance environment in which similarly adapted non-native plant species establish and gain foliar cover.

Plant and Soil↗
USGS2005

Patterns of plant species richness, rarity, endemism, and uniqueness in an arid landscape

Most current conservation literature focuses on the preservation of hotspots of species diversity and endemism, as if the two were geographically synonymous. At landscape scales this may not be the case. We collected data from 367 1000-m 2 plots in the Grand Staircase–Escalante National Monument, Utah, USA, to show that: (1) the vast majority of plant species are locally rare; (2) species-rich areas are generally in rare, mesic, or high-elevation habitats such as aspen stands or riparian zones high in soil N and P; (3) endemic species (to the Colorado Plateau and the Monument) were generally found in relatively species-rich, but low-elevation, xeric vegetation type areas low in soil P; (4) unique species assemblages were found in areas moderately high in endemism and species richness; and (5) nonnative plant species were widely distributed, but more prevalent in species-rich, mesic sites high in soil fertility or disturbed sites, and significantly less prevalent in plots with endemic species. We show that primary hotspots of species richness, high endemism, and unique species assemblages are not co-located on the landscape. Hence, conservation strategies may have to consider a much broader concept of “hotspots” to adequately preserve native plant species and the processes that foster persistence.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2003

Aspen structure and variability in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA

Elk, fire and climate have influenced aspen populations in the Rocky Mountains, but mostly subjective studies have characterized these factors. A broad-scale perspective may shed new light on the status of aspen in the region. We collected field measurements of aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) patches encountered within 36 randomly located belt transects in 340 km2 of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, to quantify the aspen population. Aspen covered 5.6% of the area in the transects, much more than expected based on previously collected remotely sensed data. The distribution and structure of aspen patches were highly heterogeneous throughout the study area. Of the 123 aspen patches encountered in the 238 ha surveyed, all but one showed signs of elk browsing or had conifer species mixed with the aspen stems. No significant difference occurred in aspen basal area, density, regeneration, browsing of regeneration and patch size, between areas of concentrated elk use (elk winter range) and areas of dispersed elk use (elk summer range). Two-thirds of the aspen patches were mixed with conifer species. We concluded that the population of aspen in our study area is highly variable in structure and that, at a landscape-scale, evidence of elk browsing is widespread but evidence of aspen decline is not.

Landscape Ecology↗