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Stefano Mannini

Publications and source records attributed to Stefano Mannini.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Tracking magma pathways and surface faulting in the Southwest Rift Zone and the Koaʻe fault system (Kīlauea volcano, Hawai ‘i) using photogrammetry and structural observations

Volcanic islands are often subject to flank instability, resulting from a combination of magmatic intrusions along rift zones and gravitational spreading causing extensional faulting at the surface. Here, we study the Koaʻe fault system (KFS), located south of the summit caldera of Kīlauea volcano in Hawaiʻi, one of the most active volcanoes on Earth, prone to active faulting, episodic dike intrusions, and flank instability. Two rift zones and the KFS are major structures controlling volcanic flank instability and magma propagation. Although several magmatic intrusions occurred over the KFS, the link between these faults, two nearby rift zones and the flank instability, is still poorly studied. To better characterize the KFS and its structural linkage with the surrounding fault and rift zones, we performed a detailed structural analysis of the extensional fault system, coupled with a helicopter photogrammetric survey, covering part of the south flank of Kīlauea. We generated a high-resolution DEM (~ 8 cm) and orthomosaic (~ 4 cm) to map the fracture field in detail. We also collected ~ 1000 ground structural measurements of extensional fractures during our three field missions (2019, 2022, and 2023). We observed many small, interconnected grabens, monoclines, rollover structures, and en-echelon fractures that were in part previously undocumented. We estimate the cumulative displacement rate across the KFS during the last 600 ~ 700 years and found a decrease toward the west of the horizontal component from 2 to 6 cm per year, consistent with GNSS data. Integrating morphology observations, fault mapping, and kinematic measurements, we propose a new kinematic model of the upper part of the Kīlauea’s south flank, suggesting a clockwise rotation and a translation of a triangular wedge. This wedge is bordered by the extensional structures (ERZ, SWRZ, and the KFS), largely influenced by gravitational spreading. These findings illustrate a structural linkage between the two rift zones and the KFS, the latter being episodically affected by dike intrusions.

Hawaii

Structured elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios: An exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island

Formalised elicitation of expert judgements has been used to help tackle several problematic societal issues, including volcanic crises and pandemic threats. We present an expert elicitation exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island, held remotely in April 2021. This involved 28 experts from nine countries who considered a hypothetical effusive eruption crisis involving a new vent opening in a high-risk area. The tele-elicitation presented several challenges, but is a promising and workable option for application to future volcanic crises. Our exercise considered an “uncommon” eruptive scenario with a vent outside the present caldera and within inhabited areas, and provided uncertainty ranges for several hazard-related questions for such a scenario (e.g. probability of eruption within a defined timeframe; elapsed time until lava flow reaches a critical location, and other hazard management issues). Our exercise indicated that such a scenario would probably present very different characteristics compared to recent eruptions, and that it is fundamental to include well-prepared expert elicitations in updated civil protection evacuation plans to improve disaster response procedures.

Volcanica