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Geology topics

Robert B. Jacobson

Publications and source records attributed to Robert B. Jacobson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2024

Ecological inferences on invasive carp survival using hydrodynamics and egg drift models

Bighead carp ( Hypophthalmichthys nobilis ), silver carp ( H. molitrix ), black carp ( Mylopharyngodon piceus ), and grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ), are invasive species in North America. However, they hold significant economic importance as food sources in China. The drifting stage of carp eggs has received great attention because egg survival rate is strongly affected by river hydrodynamics. In this study, we explored egg-drift dynamics using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models to infer potential egg settling zones based on mechanistic criteria from simulated turbulence in the Lower Missouri River. Using an 8-km reach, we simulated flow characteristics with four different discharges, representing 45–3% daily flow exceedance. The CFD results elucidate the highly heterogeneous spatial distribution of flow velocity, flow depth, turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), and the dissipation rate of TKE. The river hydrodynamics were used to determine potential egg settling zones using criteria based on shear velocity, vertical turbulence intensity, and Rouse number. Importantly, we examined the difference between hydrodynamic-inferred settling zones and settling zones predicted using an egg-drift transport model. The results indicate that hydrodynamic inference is useful in determining the ‘potential’ of egg settling, however, egg drifting paths should be taken into account to improve prediction. Our simulation results also indicate that the river turbulence does not surpass the laboratory-identified threshold to pose a threat to carp eggs.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2023

Geomorphic classification framework for assessing reproductive ecology of Scaphirhynchus albus (pallid sturgeon), Fort Peck segment, Upper Missouri River, Montana and North Dakota

The segment of the Upper Missouri River between Fort Peck Dam and the headwaters of Lake Sakakawea is home to a population of the endangered Scaphirhynchus albus (pallid sturgeon). Lack of population growth (recruitment failure) has been attributed to inadequate dispersal distance of larvae between spawning locations and the headwaters of Lake Sakakawea, where conventional wisdom holds that anoxic water-quality conditions are lethal to larval sturgeon. River-management objectives to recover pallid sturgeon in this segment therefore focus on increasing available drift distance, decreasing drift rate, increasing larval development rate, or a combination of these objectives. Understanding of channel morphological conditions along this about 400-kilometer segment may provide insight into upstream spawning habitat potential (where sturgeon likely spawn) and into geomorphic factors that may contribute to flow complexity, hence drift rate. This report documents a continuous geomorphic classification of the Fort Peck segment of the Upper Missouri River using remotely sensed datasets to provide contextual information about spatial variations potentially affecting pallid sturgeon reproductive ecology.

Montana, North Dakota↗
USGS2023

Evaluations of Lagrangian egg drift models: From a laboratory flume to large channelized rivers

To help better interpret computational models in predicting drift of carp eggs in rivers, we present a series of model assessments for the longitudinal egg dispersion. Two three-dimensional Lagrangian particle tracking models, SDrift and FluEgg, are evaluated in a series of channels with increasing complexity. The model evaluation demonstrates that both models are able to accommodate channel complexity and provide a wide range of dispersion coefficients: K l = 0 (1 − 100) Hu ∗ with H being water depth and u ∗ being shear velocity. In a straight channel with K l = 0 (1) Hu ∗ SDrift predicts weaker longitudinal dispersion than FluEgg in the early stage as a result of weak vertical mixing associated with smooth wall turbulence. With sufficient time, SDrift and FluEgg predict similar egg dispersion, accounting for the differential advection due to the vertical velocity profile. In an idealized curved channel with K l = 0 (10) Hu ∗ , dispersion is driven by both vertical and transverse velocity profiles. SDrift yields slightly larger dispersion coefficients than FluEgg. In a real river with channel-training structures and having K l = 0 (100) Hu ∗ SDrift predicts a stronger longitudinal dispersion than FluEgg due to substantial local turbulent eddies and velocity gradients. To summarize, FluEgg shows good performance in capturing dispersion due to vertical velocity profiles and cross-channel velocity gradients. SDrift shows excellent model capabilities of revealing various dispersion mechanisms in addition to the vertical and cross-channel velocity variations. They include the initial turbulent diffusion stage with growing dispersion coefficients and strong dispersion due to in-stream hydraulic structures and localized turbulence.

Missouri↗
USGS2022

Sixty years of channel adjustments to dams in the two segments of the Missouri National Recreational River, South Dakota and Nebraska

The Missouri National Recreational River (MNRR) consists of two Missouri River segments managed by the National Park Service on the border of South Dakota and Nebraska. Both river segments are unchannelized and maintain much of their pre-dam channel form, but upstream dams have caused reductions in peak flow magnitudes and sediment supply. The 39-mile segment is located between Fort Randall and Gavins Point Dams, transitioning from a riverine process domain to a distributary delta process domain in the headwaters of Lewis and Clark Lake. The 59-mile segment, an entirely riverine process domain, is downstream from Gavins Point Dam, the most downstream main channel dam on the Missouri River, and upstream from a highly altered navigation channel extending more than 1,000 kilometers downstream to St. Louis, Missouri. The National Park Service seeks to preserve the outstandingly remarkable natural, cultural, and recreational values of the MNRR. There is a particular need to understand bank-erosion processes to guide management decisions related to bank-erosion controls. Changes in channel shape, as measured in topographic cross sections surveyed every 5–10 years since the mid-20th century, document bed incision (bed-elevation lowering) in riverine process domains, a mix of aggradation and incision in the delta, and aggradation in Lewis and Clark Lake. Channel incision is greatest in the 59-mile segment, where mean thalweg (deepest point in a cross section) incision is 3.5 meters, and net incision in the thalweg greater than 5 meters was observed at a cross section 93 kilometers downstream from Gavins Point Dam. Analysis of topographic cross sections also indicates that rates of bed-elevation change since 1960 were lowest in the 39-mile river segment and in Lewis and Clark Lake. Rates of bed-elevation change were higher in the delta and 59-mile segments but lower in cross sections near Gavins Point Dam where the channel is confined by bank revetment on both banks and the bed has coarsened substantially since completion of the dam. Several large floods in recent decades, including a post-dam record flood event in 2011, scoured the bed and deposited large high-elevation sandbars in both river segments, especially in the 59-mile segment. Analysis of topographic cross-sections indicates the 2011 flood event caused substantial erosion and deposition, low magnitude net incision in the river segments and delta, and considerable sediment aggradation in the lake. Surveys taken after the 2011 flood in the 59-mile segment indicate a trend of sediment rearrangement and channel recovery following large floods, with the highest parts of the bed, sandbars, eroding and lowering while sediment was deposited on the deepest parts of the channel, which increased in elevation. Inundation modeling results indicate that the narrower valley in the 39-mile segment results in a higher percentage of the flood plain being inundated by flooding relative to the 59-mile segment, which has a much wider valley. Likewise, bed incision in the 59-mile segment has increased channel capacity and resulted in a modern channel corridor inset into a higher flood-plain surface. The inset flood plain was inundated by the 2011 flood, but the pre-dam flood plain is rarely inundated. Analysis of channel boundaries over time indicates that pre-dam channel-migration rates were as much as five times larger than modern channel-migration rates in the 59-mile segment. Bank erosion in the 59-mile segment has primarily been into post-1894 channel deposits; bank-erosion rates are comparably very low in the 39-mile segment. Analysis of channel-migration zones indicates that most erosion is isolated to local hot spots and is used to establish predictions for 10 and 20 years into the future based on past movement rates in both MNRR segments. Long-term bed-elevation and planform trends indicate that rates of adjustment in the 59-mile segment are slowing and may be approaching a new equilibrium, but recent large floods and spatial variability contribute to considerable uncertainty. Additional monitoring of channel morphology would be needed to confirm trends observed in this analysis.

Nebraska, South Dakota↗
USGS2022

Hydraulics of freshwater mussel habitat in select reaches of the Big River, Missouri

The Big River is a tributary to the Meramec River in south-central Missouri. It drains an area that has been historically one of the largest lead producers in the world, and associated mine wastes have contaminated sediments in much of the river corridor. This study investigated hydraulic conditions in four study reaches to evaluate the potential contribution of physical habitat dynamics to mechanical and physiological stress on native mussel populations. We quantified hydraulic conditions and relative bed stability in previously identified and delineated mussel habitats (MHs) and in the surrounding reaches to refine understanding of the reach-scale (about 1 kilometer) hydraulic characteristics that affect the distribution of mussel aggregations in the river. Two-dimensional hydrodynamic models were compiled for discharge scenarios from base flow (90-percent flow exceedance) to the approximate bankfull discharge (2-year mean return interval peak flow) for the reaches. Discharge, velocity, and water-surface elevation data were collected at all four study reaches at various discharges to calibrate the models across a range of discharges. Shields values to predict incipient motion of the substrate were computed for the MHs and surrounding reaches using bed-surface sediment data collected during this study and previous studies. The distributions of hydraulic values at the range of simulated discharge scenarios were significantly different among the MHs. Depth values in the MHs ranged from 0.03 to 5.7 meters, with parts remaining dry at some lower flow scenarios (for example, 90- and 50-percent flow exceedance). MH velocities and bed shear stresses (shear stresses) reached 3.1 meters per second and 31 newtons per square meter, respectively. Through the range of simulated discharges, velocity and shear stress within the MHs were limited by reach-scale hydraulic behavior. Our calculations predicted sand mobility within at least 50 percent of the wetted area of all four MHs for discharges from the 50-percent exceedance flow to the approximate bankfull discharge, whereas 50th-percentile (median) particle size fraction mobility was only predicted within a small area of one of the MHs at the 2-year peak discharge. These results indicate that finer size fractions are mobile within the four MHs, but the larger framework grains of the substrate are predominantly stable at the most frequent discharges. Our results indicate that suitable mussel habitat on the Big River cannot be identified within a narrow range of velocities, depths, and shear stresses. However, the consistent patterns of sediment mobility and the slow increase of hydraulic forces with increasing discharge within all the MHs indicate that flushing flows at low discharges and coarse sediment stability at higher discharges are important for habitat suitability in the Big River. These patterns of sediment mobility are comparable among the robust and depauperate MHs, indicating that the depauperate beds are likely not impaired by bed instability or siltation. Coarse sediment stability up to bankfull discharges further indicates that bed instability is not widespread in these modeled reaches and is likely not related to the spatial distribution of mussels in these locations.

Missouri↗
USGS2021

Stream classification and gravel-bar inventory for Buffalo National River and Ozark National Scenic Riverways

The data summarized in this report provide a baseline characterization of the physical attributes of the riverine ecosystems in two landscapes managed by the National Park Service—Ozark National Scenic Riverways, Missouri, and Buffalo National River, Arkansas—to inform understanding and management of aquatic habitat. The study utilized a basin-scale approach and consisted of two components: a basin-scale channel classification and a longitudinal inventory of gravel bars. We evaluated the Jacks Fork and Current River in Ozark National Scenic Riverways and the main stem Buffalo River in Buffalo National River. The primary objective of the study was to characterize geomorphic patterns that affect channel stability and rates of geomorphic change in both national park units. Findings may be used to inform understanding of the distribution and availability of aquatic habitat. For the basin-scale channel classification, we performed exploratory statistical analyses using nine geomorphic variables (channel width, standard deviation in channel width, valley width, distance to valley wall, confinement, bar area, bluff area, braid index, and sinuosity). Each metric was quantified along the length of the river system at 200-meter intervals. We then performed a cluster analysis for each river using a subset of variables, resulting in 2 to 5 distinct geomorphic classes depending on criteria used for determining number of clusters. Longitudinal patterns in clusters vary for each river system but reflect a combination of landscape factors including valley width, influence of tributaries, and lithology, which affect channel stability and aquatic habitat. We developed a longitudinal inventory of gravel bars by quantifying the area of gravel bars from a series of imagery in each park. In Ozark National Scenic Riverways we analyzed five time periods, with the earliest being 1992 and most recent being 2014. In Buffalo National River, we also analyzed five series of aerial imagery, ranging from 1982 to 2013. The analysis indicated a general decrease in gravel storage in upstream reaches of each river evaluated, accompanied by a general increase in storage farther downstream. Local patterns in gravel-bar area are associated with longitudinal patterns in geomorphic setting, such as valley geometry and channel width, that affect depositional patterns and sediment storage at the reach scale.

Arkansas, Missouri↗
USGS2020

Physical characteristics and simulated transport of pallid sturgeon and shovelnose sturgeon eggs

The imperiled pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) and closely related, but more common, shovelnose sturgeon (S. platorynchus) are believed to broadcast adhesive, demersal eggs in the current and over coarse substrate in turbid rivers of the North American midcontinent. It has been hypothesized that eggs settle immediately following fertilization, but field conditions preclude direct observation. We conducted laboratory studies to characterize the diameter, shape, settling velocity, and specific gravity of pallid sturgeon and shovelnose sturgeon eggs. Based on these laboratory measurements, we then modeled the potential fate of pallid sturgeon eggs by considering these physical properties in the context of two field sites where spawning has occurred. Although eggs of pallid sturgeon and shovelnose sturgeon were of a similar size and shape, shovelnose sturgeon eggs had slightly higher specific gravity and settling velocity. For representative hydraulic conditions at documented spawning sites in the mainstem Missouri and Lower Yellowstone Rivers, eggs of both species will likely be concentrated near the bed although some eggs may be distributed throughout the water column. Simulations of egg transport indicate that eggs may be transported up to several hundred meters downstream from spawning locations in the approximate length of time required for eggs to become adhesive. Estimates of egg transport presented here rely on simplifying assumptions about river hydraulics and limited understanding of how eggs interact with the complex substrates and flow near the bed; results highlight the need for additional studies to evaluate the fate of eggs and fertilized embryos of both species.

Missouri River basin↗
USGS2020

Characterization of pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) spawning habitat in the Lower Missouri River

Acipenseriformes (sturgeons and paddlefish) globally have declined throughout their range due to river fragmentation, habitat loss, overfishing, and degradation of water quality. In North America, pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) populations have experienced poor to no recruitment, or substantial levels of hybridization with the closely related shovelnose sturgeon (S. platorynchus). The Lower Missouri River is the only portion of the species’ range where successful reproduction and recruitment of genetically pure pallid sturgeon have been documented. This paper documents spawning habitat and behavior on the Lower Missouri River, which comprises over 1,300 km of unfragmented river habitat. The objective of this study was to determine spawning locations and describe habitat characteristics and environmental conditions (depth, water velocity, substrate, discharge, temperature, and turbidity) on the Lower Missouri River. We measured habitat characteristics for spawning events of ten telemetry‐tagged female pallid sturgeon from 2008–2013 that occurred in discrete reaches distributed over hundreds of kilometers. These results show pallid sturgeon select deep and fast areas in or near the navigation channel along outside revetted banks for spawning. These habitats are deeper and faster than nearby river habitats within the surrounding river reach. Spawning patches have a mean depth of 6.6 m and a mean depth‐averaged water‐column velocity of 1.4 m per second. Substrates in spawning patches consist of coarse bank revetment, gravel, sand, and bedrock. Results indicate habitat used by pallid sturgeon for spawning is more common and widespread in the present‐day channelized Lower Missouri River relative to the sparse and disperse coarse substrates available prior to channelization. Understanding the spawning habitats currently utilized on the Lower Missouri River and if they are functioning properly is important for improving habitat remediation measures aimed at increasing reproductive success. Recovery efforts for pallid sturgeon on the Missouri River, if successful, can provide guidance to sturgeon recovery on other river systems; particularly large, regulated, and channelized rivers.

Missouri, Nebraska, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota↗
USGS2019

A hydrogeomorphic classification of connectivity of large rivers of the Upper Midwest, United States

River connectivity is defined as the water-mediated exchange of matter, energy, and biota between different elements of the riverine landscape. Connectivity is an especially important concept in large-river corridors (channel plus floodplain ) because large rivers integrate fluxes of water, sediment, nutrients, contaminants, and other transported constituents emanating from large contributing drainage basins, and thereby contribute to the complexity of large-river ecosystems. Large rivers are also highly valued for socioeconomic goods and services, which has led to historical fragmentation, lack of connectivity, and contentiousness about best policies for managing large-river corridors. The classification is intended to serve as a template for understanding geographic variation in large rivers within the Midwest, to aid in designing scientific studies of large river ecological processes, and to match specific river-management and restoration objectives to specific river reaches. The focus of the classification is on measuring river connectivity from available hydrological and geomorphic data. We provide a multiscale assessment and classification for segments of 15 rivers that meet various criteria for largeness. All rivers are tributaries to the Mississippi River system. The 11,600 kilometers (km) that qualified as large were classified by major alterations (unimpounded, navigation pools, storage reservoir) and additionally assessed for their network continuity as a function of numbers and heights of dams. Among the 15 rivers, 55 percent of segment length was unimpounded, 30 percent was in navigation pools, and 15 percent was under storage reservoirs. Assessment of network longitudinal connectivity among river segments documented the contrast between river segments with low-head navigation dams (Upper Mississippi, Illinois, Ohio, Green, and Cumberland Rivers) and those segments with high-head dams (mostly in the Upper Missouri River). The longest unimpounded river pathways exist in the Lower Missouri River and connected tributaries where nearly 1,300 km of the Missouri River connect to an additional 1,800 km of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Rivers. At our finest scale, we present a statistically based, component classification based on 10-km segments. Cluster analysis of hydrologic variables from 66 streamflow-gaging stations yielded 5 clusters calculated from 5 ecohydrological metrics related to lateral connectivity with the floodplain. A separate cluster analysis of 5 geomorphologic variables associated with each of the 1,172 river segments also yielded 5 clusters. When the hydrologic variables were associated with corresponding segments, the cluster analysis yielded 8 hydrogeomorphic clusters that could be explained in terms of their contribution to floodplain connectivity. Although the clusters overlap considerably in principal component space, the resulting hydrogeomorphic classification leads to a physically reasonable distribution of classes. The resulting classification is intended to increase geographic awareness of the range of variation of connectivity potential among large rivers of the Upper Midwest, to increase understanding of the extent of alteration of these rivers, and potentially to serve as a template for stratifying study designs of large-river corridor ecological processes.

Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentuck↗
USGS2018

Interior Least Tern sandbar nesting habitat measurements from Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery

Sandbars of large sand-bedded rivers of the central United States serve important ecological functions to many species, including the endangered Interior Least Tern ( Sternula antillarum , ILT). The ILT is a colonial bird that feeds on fish and nests primarily on riverine sandbars during its annual breeding season of around May through July, depending on region. During this time, ILTs require bare sand of sufficient elevation so as not to be inundated between nest initiation and fledging of hatchlings. Partly because of decreases in available sandbar habitat from river channelization and impoundment, ILTs were listed as endangered in 1985. Sandbars used by ILTs in central United States rivers are highly dynamic and undergo substantive changes across a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. River hydrology is the primary driver of sandbar morphodynamics in these systems. Better characterization of sandbar area with time, accounting for varying flow regimes, allows for a better understanding of landscape-scale ecology for sandbar-dependent species such as the ILT. This work uses remote-sensing techniques to quantify sandbar area that may be used by ILTs at the land-scape scale and how it has changed with time. The assessment of landscape-scale trends in sandbar area with time requires datasets with high temporal resolution and long record periods covering large geographic areas. Evaluation of remotely sensed datasets requires consideration of river stage fluctuations. To make this assessment, we developed land-cover classification datasets within active channel masks using all available images from the Landsat Thematic Mapper series of satellites meeting cloud-free (40 percent or less) and ice-free criteria. Landsat imagery was selected because of its long record period, spatial coverage, and regular reimaging cycle, making it well suited to monitor ILT sandbar habitat with time. We also attributed each scene with discharge or stage using a new database integrating U.S. Geological Survey and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers river data with Landsat metadata. This report documents development of these riverine classification datasets with a focus on applicability to the ILT. This framework may be used to continue monitoring the ILT sandbar nesting habitat or to evaluate other aquatic and terrestrial species whose life cycles are related to sandbars and channel complexity.

Data Series↗
USGS2018

Overview and progress of the pallid sturgeon assessment framework redesign process

The Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program (PSPAP) was initiated in 2003, and full implementation began in 2006, to monitor the trend of Scaphirhynchus albus (pallid sturgeon) and native fish communities in the Upper and Lower Missouri River Basins. The original PSPAP (v. 1.0) was a catch-effort based monitoring program where population abundance and trend were monitored using a relative index, catch per unit effort. In 2013, the Missouri River Recovery Program (MRRP), led by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), began a reassessment of science and monitoring approaches to support a new river management plan. The need to redesign the PSPAP was triggered by the recognition that the PSPAP v. 1.0 would not be optimally effective in contributing information needed to make decisions about the pallid sturgeon fundamental management objective—to avoid jeopardizing the continued existence of the pallid sturgeon from USACE actions in the Missouri River—identified in the Missouri River Science and Adaptive Management Plan. The fundamental management objective includes two management subobjectives: (1) increase pallid sturgeon recruitment to age 1 and (2) maintain or increase numbers of pallid sturgeon as an interim measure until sufficient and sustained natural recruitment occurs. These two management subobjectives motivated the development of two fundamental information objectives for PSPAP v. 2.0: (1) to provide information needed to quantify recruitment to age 1 and (2) to quantify pallid sturgeon population abundance and trend. The charge to the authors of this report was to develop an approach to monitoring the pallid sturgeon population in the Missouri River that would contribute information toward gauging overall performance of management actions to achieve the fundamental objectives of the MRRP and to potentially improve understanding of linkages from the management activities to population responses. We used transparent and robust processes to identify alternative monitoring designs that meet the fundamental objectives for managing pallid sturgeon in the MRRP, with a focus on simulation models to evaluate the performance of varying monitoring. This report documents the process of comparing potential alternative monitoring design abilities to provide decision-relevant information for management of the species. The process includes evaluation of information content and attendant uncertainties and considers tradeoffs in types of information valued by stakeholders. The anticipated end product of this process will be synthesized in a decision-support tool that can be used to facilitate learning and iterative revisions of the monitoring roadmap.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2018

Evaluating flow management as a strategy to recover an endangered sturgeon species in the Upper Missouri River, USA

In the Upper Missouri River, Fort Peck and Garrison Dams limit the length of free‐flowing river available to the endangered pallid sturgeon. These barriers restrict the upstream migration of adults and downstream larval dispersal. A one‐dimensional (1D) modelling framework is currently in use to evaluate reservoir operation alternatives and to simulate drift of dispersing free embryos for different flow regimes and reservoir stages. This paper presents the results of a large‐scale tracer experiment conducted in 2016 and associated modelling performed to evaluate flow management scenarios that might aid species recovery. Breakthrough curves from the tracer experiment were used to infer the 1D longitudinal dispersion coefficient from a parameter optimization procedure. Simulations generated using the calibrated 1D advection–dispersion model were compared with field observations of the passive tracer and with larval fish collected during a previous experiment in 2007. When used with the appropriate range of dispersion coefficients, the 1D modelling framework agrees well with the available direct measurements of larval drift distances. Although we cannot unequivocally state whether insufficient length of free‐flowing river alone is causing recruitment failure, given the current thermal regime and our understanding of pallid sturgeon development, the time required for pallid sturgeon to transition to the benthos and initiate feeding might exceed the duration of drift available given constraints of reservoir operations.

Missouri↗
USGS2018

Bend-scale geomorphic classification and assessment of the Lower Missouri River from Sioux City, Iowa, to the Mississippi River for application to pallid sturgeon management

Management actions intended to increase growth and survival of pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) age-0 larvae on the Lower Missouri River require a comprehensive understanding of the geomorphic habitat template of the river. The study described here had two objectives relating to where channel-reconfiguration projects should be located to optimize effectiveness. The first objective was to develop a bend-scale (that is, at the scale of individual bends, defined as “cross-over to cross-over”) geomorphic classification of the Lower Missouri River to help in the design of monitoring and evaluation of such projects. The second objective was to explore whether geomorphic variables could provide insight into varying capacities of bends to intercept drifting larvae. The bend-scale classification was based on geomorphic and engineering variables for 257 bends from Sioux City, Iowa, to the confluence with the Mississippi River near St. Louis, Missouri. We used k-means clustering to identify groupings of bends that shared the same characteristics. Separate 3-, 4-, and 6-cluster classifications were developed and mapped. The three classifications are nested in a hierarchical structure. We also explored capacities of bends to intercept larvae through evaluation of linear models that predicted persistent sand area or catch per unit effort (CPUE) of age-0 sturgeon as a function of the same geomorphic variables used in the classification. All highly ranked models that predict persistent sand area contained mean channel width and standard deviation of channel width as significant variables. Some top-ranked models also included contributions of channel sinuosity and density of navigation structures. The sand-area prediction models have r-squared values of 0.648–0.674. In contrast, the highest-ranking CPUE models have r-squared values of 0.011–0.170, indicating much more uncertainty for the biological response variable. Whereas the persistent sand model documents that physical processes of transport and accumulation are systematic and predictable, the poor performance of the CPUE models indicate that additional processes will need to be considered to predict biological transport and accumulation.

Iowa, Missouri↗
USGS2017

Assessment of adult pallid sturgeon fish condition, Lower Missouri River—Application of new information to the Missouri River Recovery Program

During spring 2015, Nebraska Game and Parks Commission (NGPC) biologists noted that pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) were in poor condition during sampling associated with the Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Project and NGPC’s annual pallid sturgeon broodstock collection effort. These observations prompted concerns that reduced fish condition could compromise reproductive health and population growth of pallid sturgeon. There was a further concern that compromised condition could possibly be linked to U.S. Army Corps of Engineers management actions and increase jeopardy to the species. An evaluation request was made to the Missouri River Recovery Program and the Effects Analysis Team was chartered to evaluate the issue. Data on all Missouri River pallid sturgeon captures were requested and received from the National Pallid Sturgeon Database. All data were examined for completeness and accuracy; 12,053 records of captures between 200 millimeters fork length (mm FL) and 1,200 mm FL were accepted. We analyzed condition using (1) the condition formula (Kn) from Shuman and others (2011); (2) a second Kn formulation derived from the 12,053 records (hereafter referred to as “Alternative Kn”); and (3) an analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) approach that did not rely on a Kn formulation. The Kn data were analyzed using group (average annual Kn) and individual (percentage in low, normal, and robust conditions) approaches. Using the Shuman Kn formulation, annual mean Kn was fairly static from 2005 to 2011 (although always higher in the upper basin), declined from 2012 to 2015, then remained either static (lower basin) or increasing (upper basin) in 2016. Under the Alternative Kn formulation, the upper basin showed no decline in Kn, whereas the lower basin displayed the same trend as the Shuman Kn formulation. Using both formulations, the individual approach revealed a more complex situation; at the same times and locations that there are fish in poor condition, there are nearby fish in normal or robust condition. The ANCOVA approach revealed that fish condition at size changed between 400 and 600 mm and that some of the apparent trend in low condition was caused by differences in sample size across the size range of the population (that is, greater catch of intermediate-sized fish compared to large fish). We examined basin, year, origin (hatchery compared to wild), segment, and size class for effects on condition and concluded that, since 2012, there has been an increase in the percentage of pallid sturgeon in low condition. There are basin, year, and segment effects; origin and size class do not seem to have an effect. The lower basin, in particular segment 9 (Platte River to Kansas River), had a high percentage of low-condition fish. Within the segment, there were bend-level effects, but the bend effect was not spatially contiguous. We concluded that existing data confirm concerns about declining fish condition, especially in the segments between Sioux City, Iowa, and Kansas City, Missouri. Although the evidence is strong that fish condition has been in decline from 2011 to 2015, additional analysis of individual fish histories may provide more confidence in this conclusion; such analysis was beyond the scope of this effort but is part of our recommendations. The most recent data in 2016 indicate that decline of condition may have leveled off; however, the length of record is insufficient to determine whether recent declines are within the background range of variation. We recommend that monitoring of fish condition should be increased and enhanced with additional health metrics. We also recommend that, should condition continue to decline, processes are deployed to bring low-condition adult fish into the hatchery to improve nutrition and condition. We could not determine the cause of declining fish condition with available data, but we compiled information on several dominant hypotheses in two main categories: inter- or intraspecific competition for resources and habitat conditions. Data are insufficient to indicate a specific causation or solution, and it is possible that multiple causes apply. We make recommendations for additional research that can be pursued to address uncertainties in trends in fish health as well as potential causes.

Missouri River↗
USGS2017

Quantifying habitat benefits of channel reconfigurations on a highly regulated river system, Lower Missouri River, USA

We present a quantitative analysis of habitat availability in a highly regulated lowland river, comparing a restored reach with two reference reaches: an un-restored, channelized reach, and a least-altered reach. We evaluate the effects of channel modifications in terms of distributions of depth and velocity as well as distributions and availability of habitats thought to be supportive of an endangered fish, the pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ). It has been hypothesized that hydraulic conditions that support food production and foraging may limit growth and survival of juvenile pallid sturgeon. To evaluate conditions that support these habitats, we constructed two-dimensional hydrodynamic models for the three study reaches, two located in the Lower Missouri River (channelized and restored reaches) and one in the Yellowstone River (least-altered reach). Comparability among the reaches was improved by scaling by bankfull discharge and bankfull channel area. The analysis shows that construction of side-channel chutes and increased floodplain connectivity increase the availability of foraging habitat, resulting in a system that is more similar to the reference reach on the Yellowstone River. The availability of food-producing habitat is low in all reaches at flows less than bankfull, but the two reaches in the Lower Missouri River – channelized and restored – display a threshold-like response as flows overtop channel banks, reflecting the persistent effects of channelization on hydraulics in the main channel. These high lateral gradients result in punctuated ecological events corresponding to flows in excess of bankfull discharge. This threshold effect in the restored reach remains distinct from that of the least-altered reference reach, where hydraulic changes are less abrupt and overbank flows more gradually inundate the adjacent floodplain. The habitat curves observed in the reference reach on the Yellowstone River may not be attainable within the channelized system on the Missouri River, but the documented hydraulic patterns can be used to inform ongoing channel modifications. Although scaling to bankfull dimensions and discharges provides a basis for comparing the three reaches, implementation of the reference reach concept was complicated by differences in flow-frequency distributions among sites. In particular, habitat availability in the least-altered Yellowstone River reach is affected by increased frequency of low-flow events (less than 0.5 times bankfull flow) and moderately high-flow events (greater than 1.5 times bankfull flow) compared to downstream reaches on the Lower Missouri River.

Lower Missouri River↗
USGS2016

The Missouri River Scaphirhynchus albus (pallid sturgeon) effects analysis

The Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis (EA) was designed to assess how Missouri River management has affected—and may affect—the endangered Scaphirhynchus albus (pallid sturgeon) population. The EA emerged from the recognition that the direction and focus of the Missouri River Recovery Program would benefit from an updated, thorough evaluation of what is known, what is not known, and what needs to be known for effective actions. This fact sheet documents the steps in the EA process and the four core reports, culminating in the 2016 integrative report.

Missouri River↗
USGS2016

Missouri River Scaphirhynchus albus (pallid sturgeon) effects analysis—Integrative report 2016

The Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis was designed to carry out three components of an assessment of how Missouri River management has affected, and will affect, population dynamics of endangered Scaphirhynchus albus (pallid sturgeon): (1) collection of reliable scientific information, (2) critical assessment and synthesis of available data and analyses, and (3) analysis of the effects of actions on listed species and their habitats. This report is a synthesis of the three components emphasizing development of lines of evidence relating potential future management actions to pallid sturgeon population dynamics. We address 21 working management hypotheses that emerged from an expert opinion-based filtering process. The ability to quantify linkages from abiotic changes to pallid sturgeon population dynamics is compromised by fundamental information gaps. Although a substantial foundation of pallid sturgeon science has been developed during the past 20 years, our efforts attempt to push beyond that understanding to provide predictions of how future management actions may affect pallid sturgeon responses. For some of the 21 hypotheses, lines of evidence are limited to theoretical deduction, inference from sparse empirical datasets, or expert opinion. Useful simulation models have been developed to predict the effects of management actions on survival of drifting pallid sturgeon free embryos in the Yellowstone and Upper Missouri River complex (hereafter referred to as the “upper river”), and to assess the effects of flow and channel reconfigurations on habitat availability in the Lower Missouri River, tributaries, and Mississippi River downstream of Gavins Point Dam (hereafter referred to as the “lower river”). A population model also has been developed that can be used to assess sensitivity of the population to survival of specific life stages, assess some hypotheses related to stocking decisions, and explore a limited number of management scenarios. Consideration of lines of evidence for each of the 21 hypotheses includes a discussion of how the degree of uncertainty and risk associated with each hypothesis may guide science and implementation strategies. Implementation strategies include full implementation in the field, limited implementations as field-scale experiments, or (in the case of greatest uncertainty) implementation as learning actions, including research and opportunistic experiments or field-based gradient studies. Given the substantive uncertainties associated with pallid sturgeon population dynamics and the need to continually assimilate and assess new information, we proposed that an Effects Analysis-like process should be considered an integral part of ongoing Missouri River adaptive management.

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