Geology topics

Paul F. Juckem

Publications and source records attributed to Paul F. Juckem.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Design and calibration of a nitrate decision support tool for groundwater wells in Wisconsin, USA

This paper describes development of a nitrate decision support tool for groundwater wells (GW-NDST) that combines nitrate leaching and groundwater lag-times to compute well concentrations. The GW-NDST uses output from support models that simulate leached nitrate, groundwater age distributions, and nitrate reduction rates. The support models are linked through convolution to simulate nitrate transport to wells. Spatially distributed parameters were adjusted through calibration to 34,255 nitrate sample targets. Prediction uncertainty is illustrated via Monte Carlo realizations informed during calibration. Over 78% of target concentrations were within the simulated range of results from 450 realizations. An example forecasting scenario illustrates that a range of feasible outcomes exist and should be considered when interpreting forecasts for decision making. Uncertainty in forecasting is unavoidable; the intent of characterizing uncertainty in the GW-NDST is to facilitate decision making by increasing insight into the response of nitrate contamination to physical and chemical processes.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2021

Re‐purposing groundwater flow models for age assessments: Important characteristics

Groundwater flow model construction is often time‐consuming and costly, with development ideally focused on a specific purpose, such as quantifying well capture from water bodies or providing flow fields for simulating advective transport. As environmental challenges evolve, the incentive to re‐purpose existing groundwater flow models may increase. However, few studies have evaluated which characteristics of groundwater flow models deserve greatest consideration when re‐purposing models for groundwater age and advective transport simulations. In this paper, we compare simulated age metrics produced by three MODFLOW‐MODPATH models of the same area but with differing levels of complexity (layering and heterogeneity). Comparisons are made at three watershed scales (HUC 8 to HUC 12). Groundwater age metrics, specifically the young fraction and median age of the young and old fractions, are used for evaluation because they relate to intrinsic susceptibility of aquifers and are simpler to interpret than full age distributions used for advective transport. Results indicate that: 1. the young fraction is less sensitive to model layering than the median age of young and old fractions, suggesting that simple models may suffice for basic intrinsic susceptibility assessments; 2. water table mounding and associated discharge into partially penetrating boundaries, such as head‐water streams, is important for simulating both the young fraction and the median age of the young fraction; and 3. the influence of partially penetrating head‐water streams is maintained regardless of the porosity distribution. Results of this work should aid modelers with evaluating the appropriateness of re‐purposing existing groundwater flow models for age simulations.

Groundwater↗

USGS2020

Simulation of the probabilistic plume extent for a potential replacement wastewater-infiltration lagoon, and probabilistic contributing areas for supply wells for the Town of Lac du Flambeau, Vilas County, Wisconsin

An existing two-dimensional, steady-state groundwater-flow model of the shallow groundwater-flow system of the Lac du Flambeau Reservation in Vilas County, Wisconsin, originally developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, was used to simulate the potential for wastewater from a proposed relocation of a wastewater lagoon to contaminate the Lac du Flambeau Band of Lake Superior Chippewa’s drinking-water-supply wells. This simulation was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Lac du Flambeau Band of Lake Superior Chippewa and Indian Health Service. The simulated scenarios consisted of removing wastewater infiltration from existing lagoons and re-applying that infiltration at the proposed location. Two analyses were performed for the scenarios. First, the probable extent of the plume discharging from the proposed infiltration lagoons was mapped with a Monte Carlo algorithm that used uncertainty identified during the calibration process to simulate thousands of possible outcomes. Second, the Monte Carlo method was again used to simulate a probabilistic contributing area for the Tribe’s nearby “Main Pumphouse” supply wells. The purpose of the simulations was to evaluate the potential for infiltrated wastewater to be captured by the public-supply wells. Most features of the previously developed model remained unchanged, including calibrated parameters such as hydraulic conductivity and recharge. Thus, the same covariance distributions that were generated during calibration of the regional model (Juckem and others, 2014) remained unchanged and were used to inform the Monte Carlo simulations for the scenario simulations described in this report. The reader is encouraged to read the full report by Juckem and others (available at https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20145020 ) for a detailed description of the model design and calibration, as well as a description of the Monte Carlo method, its limitations, and the original results. Results for these new scenarios indicate that the probabilistic plume extent for the proposed infiltration lagoons does not reach the Main Pumphouse wells using pumping rates and wastewater volumes estimated for 2010. Similarly, the contributing area for the Main Pumphouse wells does not capture water from within the proposed infiltration lagoon footprint. However, at higher pumping rates and wastewater volumes, as projected by the Tribe for about 2035, the contributing area for the Main Pumphouse wells do include particles that originated within the proposed lagoon footprint, albeit at low probabilities. That is, for a few of the thousands of simulations that represented a range of calibration-informed parameter covariances, some amount of infiltrated wastewater was captured by the Main Pumphouse wells under projected 2035 conditions.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2019

Groundwater flow model for Western Chippewa County–Including analysis of water resources related to industrial sand mining and irrigated agriculture

A groundwater flow model for western Chippewa County, Wisconsin, was developed by the Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey (WGNHS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) using the computer program MODFLOW. The model is the result of a five-year groundwater study commissioned by Chippewa County in 2012 to evaluate the effects of industrial sand mining and irrigated agriculture on the county’s water resources. The study incorporates existing data and newly acquired data from fieldwork conducted within the study area. The groundwater model may be useful for future investigations, such as evaluation of proposed high-capacity well sites, development of municipal wellhead protection plans, and studies that seek to further quantify surface water-groundwater relationships. The model conceptualizes the hydrostratigraphy of western Chippewa County as six stacked layers. Each layer is distinct, beginning with unlithified glacial material at the surface, and alternating between sandstones (that act as aquifers) and shale units (that serve as aquitards). The model is bounded below by Precambrian crystalline bedrock and its perimeter was derived from a regional-scale groundwater flow model. The MODFLOW model represented average conditions during 2011–2013 with “steady-state” assumptions, meaning that simulated water levels do not fluctuate seasonally or from year to year. Steady-state models simplify natural variability, making results of scenario simulations easier to interpret and compare while also maximizing effects of stressors because the simulated stress is always applied (not halted after a few months or years). Model calibration used the parameter estimation code (PEST), and calibration targets included heads (groundwater levels) and streamflows. Calibration focused on 2011–2013 because a large amount of head and streamflow data were available for that period. The MODFLOW model explicitly simulates all sources and sinks of water, including groundwater/surface-water interaction with streamflow routing. Model input included estimates of aquifer hydraulic conductivity and a spatial groundwater recharge distribution developed using a GIS-based soil-water-balance (SWB) model applied to the model area. Groundwater withdrawals were simulated for 269 high-capacity wells across the entire model domain, which includes western Chippewa County and adjacent portions of Dunn, Barron, and Rusk Counties. Collectively, these wells withdrew about 1.14 million gallons per year between 2011 and 2013. Once the model was calibrated, it was applied to two distinct scenarios of increased groundwater withdrawals: one evaluating hydrologic effects of more intensive industrial sand mining and the second evaluating the hydrologic effects of more intensive agricultural irrigation practices. Each scenario was developed with input from Chippewa County and a stakeholder group established expressly for this study. The scenarios were designed to represent reasonable future buildout conditions for both mining and irrigated agriculture. The mining scenario underscores the potential hydrologic effects related to changing land-use practices (i.e., hilltops and farmland becoming sand mines), while the irrigated agriculture scenario illustrates the potential hydrologic effects of intensifying existing land-use practices (i.e., installing new wells to irrigate farm fields). While each scenario evaluated distinctly different conditions, modeling results demonstrated the potential of both scenarios to lower the water table and reduce baseflows in headwater streams within the modeled area. In the case of irrigated agriculture, hydrologic effects were associated directly with groundwater withdrawals. By assuming that irrigation did not decrease, this steady-state simulation represented a sustained future effect. By contrast, hydrologic effects of industrial sand mining were the result of both groundwater withdrawals at mines and land-use changes that effectively reduced recharge to groundwater over distinct phases of active mining. This scenario included a post-mining phase, during which groundwater withdrawals stopped and mined areas were reclaimed to undeveloped prairie grass cover. If reclamation to undeveloped prairie indeed occurs as simulated, long-term increases in the water table and stream baseflows are possible. In this sense, the scenario representing build out of irrigated agriculture led to long-term baseflow declines while the future buildout of industrial sand mining led to declines that dissipated following mine reclamation to undisturbed prairie. Future investigations in similar hydrogeologic settings may find the following insights gleaned from this study useful: ❚❚ The characterization of hydrogeologic properties, delineation of hydrogeologic units, and calibration of groundwater flow models benefited from incorporation of accurate well construction reports, high-quality borehole geophysical logs, and streamflow gaging data. ❚❚ Infiltration testing performed in active mining areas provided evidence that reducing the degree and extent of compaction and enhancing areas designed to retain and infiltrate stormwater runoff could potentially reduce runoff and increase groundwater recharge. ❚❚ Similarly, reclaiming mined areas to prairie grasses would be expected to reduce runoff and increase groundwater recharge by reducing compaction and improving soil structure and vegetation that can slow runoff and enhance infiltration.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2018

Extraction and development of inset models in support of groundwater age calculations for glacial aquifers

The U.S. Geological Survey developed a regional model of Lake Michigan Basin (LMB). This report describes the construction of five MODFLOW inset models extracted from the LMB regional model and their application using the particle-tracking code MODPATH to simulate the groundwater age distribution of discharge to wells pumping from glacial deposits. The five study areas of the inset model correspond to 8-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC8) basins. Two of the basins are tributary to Lake Michigan from the east, two are tributary to the lake from the west, and one is just west of the western boundary of the Lake Michigan topographic basin. The inset models inherited many of the inputs to the parent LMB model, including the hydrostratigraphy and layering scheme, the hydraulic conductivity assigned to bedrock layers, recharge distribution, and water use in the form of pumping rates from glacial and bedrock wells. The construction of the inset models entailed modifying some inputs, most notably the grid spacing (reduced from cells 5,000 feet on a side in the parent LMB model to 500 feet on a side in the inset models). The refined grid spacing allowed for more precise location of pumped wells and more detailed simulation of groundwater/surface-water interactions. The glacial hydraulic conductivity values, the top bedrock surface elevation, and the surface-water network input to the inset models also were modified. The inset models are solved using the MODFLOW–NWT code, which allows for more robust handling of conditions in unconfined aquifers than previous versions of MODFLOW. Comparison of the MODFLOW inset models reveals that they incorporate a range of hydrogeologic conditions relative to the glacial part of the flow system, demonstrated by visualization and analysis of model inputs and outputs and reflected in the range of ages generated by MODPATH for existing and hypothetical glacial wells. Certain inputs and outputs are judged to be candidate predictors that, if treated statistically, may be capable of explaining much of the variance in the simulated age metrics. One example of a predictor that model results indicate strongly affects simulated age is the depth of the well open interval below the simulated water table. The strength of this example variable as an overall predictor of groundwater age and its relation to other predictors can be statistically tested through the metamodeling process. In this way the inset models are designed to serve as a training area for metamodels that estimate groundwater age in glacial wells, which in turn will contribute to ongoing studies, under the direction of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment, of contaminant susceptibility of shallow groundwater across the glacial aquifer system.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2018

Regional variability of nitrate fluxes in the unsaturated zone and groundwater, Wisconsin, USA

Process-based modeling of regional NO3− fluxes to groundwater is critical for understanding and managing water quality, but the complexity of NO3− reactive transport processes make implementation a challenge. This study introduces a regional vertical flux method (VFM) for efficient estimation of reactive transport of NO3− in the vadose zone and groundwater. The regional VFM was applied to 443 well samples in central-eastern Wisconsin. Chemical measurements included O2, NO3−, N2 from denitrification, and atmospheric tracers of groundwater age including carbon-14, chlorofluorocarbons, tritium, and tritiogenic helium. VFM results were consistent with observed chemistry, and calibrated parameters were in-line with estimates from previous studies. Results indicated that (1) unsaturated zone travel times were a substantial portion of the transit time to wells and streams (2) since 1945 fractions of applied N leached to groundwater have increased for manure-N, possibly due to increased injection of liquid manure, and decreased for fertilizer-N, and (3) under current practices and conditions, approximately 60% of the shallow aquifer will eventually be affected by downward migration of NO3−, with denitrification protecting the remaining 40%. Recharge variability strongly affected the unsaturated zone lag times and the eventual depth of the NO3− front. Principal components regression demonstrated that VFM parameters and predictions were significantly correlated with hydrogeochemical landscape features. The diverse and sometimes conflicting aspects of N management (e.g. limiting N volatilization versus limiting N losses to groundwater) warrant continued development of large-scale holistic strategies to manage water quality and quantity.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2018

Effects of water level and climate on the hydrodynamics and water quality of Anvil Lake, Wisconsin, a shallow seepage lake

Interannual differences in the water quality of Anvil Lake, Wisconsin, were examined to determine how water level and climate affect the hydrodynamics and trophic state of shallow lakes, and their importance compared to anthropogenic changes in the watershed. Anvil Lake is a relatively pristine seepage lake with hydrology dominated by precipitation, evaporation, and groundwater exchange enabling the typically subtle effects of water level and climate to be evaluated. Groundwater and hydrodynamic models were used to describe lake water and phosphorus budgets and how its hydrodynamics are affected by water level and air temperature. Decreases in water level are expected to cause Anvil Lake and other shallow lakes to stratify fewer days, and have warmer bottom temperatures and more deep-mixing events. Increasing air temperatures should cause these lakes to have shorter ice cover, longer summer stratification periods, and warmer bottom temperatures. How water level affects water quality depends on how nutrient loading and lake volume vary: during drier, low-water years, lakes with large interannual changes in loading should have better water quality, whereas lakes with small changes in loading should degrade slightly. Anthropogenic changes in Anvil Lake's watershed over the past ∼100 yr were about 1.5 times the effects of changes in water level when levels were low, but the effects were similar when levels were high. Climate warming is expected to increase productivity in shallow lakes because warmer air temperatures will likely increase bottom temperatures increasing sediment phosphorus release and deep-mixing events enabling this phosphorus to reach the epilimnion.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2018

Metamodeling and mapping of nitrate flux in the unsaturated zone and groundwater, Wisconsin, USA

Nitrate contamination of groundwater in agricultural areas poses a major challenge to the sustainability of water resources. Aquifer vulnerability models are useful tools that can help resource managers identify areas of concern, but quantifying nitrogen (N) inputs in such models is challenging, especially at large spatial scales. We sought to improve regional nitrate (NO 3 − ) input functions by characterizing unsaturated zone NO 3 − transport to groundwater through use of surrogate, machine-learning metamodels of a process-based N flux model. The metamodels used boosted regression trees (BRTs) to relate mappable landscape variables to parameters and outputs of a previous “vertical flux method” (VFM) applied at sampled wells in the Fox, Wolf, and Peshtigo (FWP) river basins in northeastern Wisconsin. In this context, the metamodels upscaled the VFM results throughout the region, and the VFM parameters and outputs are the metamodel response variables. The study area encompassed the domain of a detailed numerical model that provided additional predictor variables, including groundwater recharge, to the metamodels. We used a statistical learning framework to test a range of model complexities to identify suitable hyperparameters of the six BRT metamodels corresponding to each response variable of interest: NO 3 − source concentration factor (which determines the local NO 3 − input concentration); unsaturated zone travel time; NO 3 − concentration at the water table in 1980, 2000, and 2020 (three separate metamodels); and NO 3 − “extinction depth”, the eventual steady state depth of the NO 3 − front. The final metamodels were trained to 129 wells within the active numerical flow model area, and considered 58 mappable predictor variables compiled in a geographic information system (GIS). These metamodels had training and cross-validation testing R 2 values of 0.52 – 0.86 and 0.22 – 0.38, respectively, and predictions were compiled as maps of the above response variables. Testing performance was reasonable, considering that we limited the metamodel predictor variables to mappable factors as opposed to using all available VFM input variables. Relationships between metamodel predictor variables and mapped outputs were generally consistent with expectations, e.g. with greater source concentrations and NO 3 − at the groundwater table in areas of intensive crop use and well drained soils. Shorter unsaturated zone travel times in poorly drained areas likely indicated preferential flow through clay soils, and a tendency for fine grained deposits to collocate with areas of shallower water table. Numerical estimates of groundwater recharge were important in the metamodels and may have been a proxy for N input and redox conditions in the northern FWP, which had shallow predicted NO 3 − extinction depth. The metamodel results provide proof-of-concept for regional characterization of unsaturated zone NO 3 − transport processes in a statistical framework based on readily mappable GIS input variables.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2017

Predicting redox-sensitive contaminant concentrations in groundwater using random forest classification

Machine learning techniques were applied to a large (n > 10,000) compliance monitoring database to predict the occurrence of several redox-active constituents in groundwater across a large watershed. Specifically, random forest classification was used to determine the probabilities of detecting elevated concentrations of nitrate, iron, and arsenic in the Fox, Wolf, Peshtigo, and surrounding watersheds in northeastern Wisconsin. Random forest classification is well suited to describe the nonlinear relationships observed among several explanatory variables and the predicted probabilities of elevated concentrations of nitrate, iron, and arsenic. Maps of the probability of elevated nitrate, iron, and arsenic can be used to assess groundwater vulnerability and the vulnerability of streams to contaminants derived from groundwater. Processes responsible for elevated concentrations are elucidated using partial dependence plots. For example, an increase in the probability of elevated iron and arsenic occurred when well depths coincided with the glacial/bedrock interface, suggesting a bedrock source for these constituents. Furthermore, groundwater in contact with Ordovician bedrock has a higher likelihood of elevated iron concentrations, which supports the hypothesis that groundwater liberates iron from a sulfide-bearing secondary cement horizon of Ordovician age. Application of machine learning techniques to existing compliance monitoring data offers an opportunity to broadly assess aquifer and stream vulnerability at regional and national scales and to better understand geochemical processes responsible for observed conditions.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2017

Simulation of groundwater flow in the glacial aquifer system of northeastern Wisconsin with variable model complexity

The U.S. Geological Survey, National Water-Quality Assessment seeks to map estimated intrinsic susceptibility of the glacial aquifer system of the conterminous United States. Improved understanding of the hydrogeologic characteristics that explain spatial patterns of intrinsic susceptibility, commonly inferred from estimates of groundwater age distributions, is sought so that methods used for the estimation process are properly equipped. An important step beyond identifying relevant hydrogeologic datasets, such as glacial geology maps, is to evaluate how incorporation of these resources into process-based models using differing levels of detail could affect resulting simulations of groundwater age distributions and, thus, estimates of intrinsic susceptibility. This report describes the construction and calibration of three groundwater-flow models of northeastern Wisconsin that were developed with differing levels of complexity to provide a framework for subsequent evaluations of the effects of process-based model complexity on estimations of groundwater age distributions for withdrawal wells and streams. Preliminary assessments, which focused on the effects of model complexity on simulated water levels and base flows in the glacial aquifer system, illustrate that simulation of vertical gradients using multiple model layers improves simulated heads more in low-permeability units than in high-permeability units. Moreover, simulation of heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity fields in coarse-grained and some fine-grained glacial materials produced a larger improvement in simulated water levels in the glacial aquifer system compared with simulation of uniform hydraulic conductivity within zones. The relation between base flows and model complexity was less clear; however, the relation generally seemed to follow a similar pattern as water levels. Although increased model complexity resulted in improved calibrations, future application of the models using simulated particle tracking is anticipated to evaluate if these model design considerations are similarly important for understanding the primary modeling objective - to simulate reasonable groundwater age distributions.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2015

Simulation of the regional groundwater-flow system of the Menominee Indian Reservation, Wisconsin

A regional, two-dimensional, steady-state groundwater-flow model was developed to simulate the groundwater-flow system and groundwater/surface-water interactions within the Menominee Indian Reservation. The model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Menominee Indian Tribe of Wisconsin, to contribute to the fundamental understanding of the region’s hydrogeology. The objectives of the regional model were to improve understanding of the groundwater-flow system, including groundwater/surface-water interactions, and to develop a tool suitable for evaluating the effects of potential regional water-management programs. The computer code GFLOW was used because of the ease with which the model can simulate groundwater/surface-water interactions, provide a framework for simulating regional groundwater-flow systems, and be refined in a stepwise fashion to incorporate new data and simulate groundwater-flow patterns at multiple scales. Simulations made with the regional model reproduce groundwater levels and stream base flows representative of recent conditions (1970–2013) and illustrate groundwater-flow patterns with maps of (1) the simulated water table and groundwater-flow directions, (2) probabilistic areas contributing recharge to high-capacity pumped wells, and (3) estimation of the extent of infiltrated wastewater from treatment lagoons. The groundwater-flow model described in this report simulates the major hydrogeologic features of the modeled area, including surficial unconsolidated aquifers, groundwater/surface-water interactions, and groundwater withdrawals from existing high-capacity production wells. Areas contributing recharge to pumped high-capacity wells on the Menominee Indian Reservation were delineated by tracking simulated water particles from the water table to wells in combination with Monte Carlo techniques, and maps of the probability of capture for each well nest were produced. Groundwater-agebased areas contributing recharge to wells were simulated by using the calibrated set of parameters and porosity values adjusted to account for bias in simulated saturated thickness. Simulations were performed for current (2013) pumping rates. The simulations show a range in sensitivity of the simulated areas contributing recharge to wells given the parameters evaluated through the Monte Carlo analysis. The areas contributing recharge to supply wells for the villages of Zoar and Neopit are long and narrow, with a sharp gradation from high to low probability of capture. The areas contributing recharge to supply wells for Middle Village and the village of Keshena exhibit a sharp gradation from high to low probability over a relatively small area between the well and a local groundwater mound. The highest probability areas contributing recharge to the supply wells for the Villages of Onekewat and Redwing are in the immediate vicinity of the wells. These wells also have an extensive area with low probability for capturing water that is likely due to a locally low hydraulic gradient and the large degree of uncertainty associated with the lakebed resistance parameters that control interaction between groundwater and local lakes. Additional field investigations and associated local model refinements would facilitate further reductions in uncertainty associated with simulated areas contributing recharge to the wells. The likely extent of the Neopit wastewater plume was simulated by using the groundwater-flow model and Monte Carlo techniques to evaluate the sensitivity of predictive simulations to a range of model parameter values. Wastewater infiltrated from the currently operating lagoons flows predominantly south toward Tourtillotte Creek. Some of the infiltrated wastewater is simulated as having a low probability of flowing beneath Tourtillotte Creek to the nearby West Branch Wolf River. Results for the probable extent of the wastewater plume are considered to be qualitative because the method only considers advective flow and does not account for processes affecting contaminant transport in porous media. Therefore, results for the probable extent of the wastewater plume are sensitive to the number of particles used to represent flow from the lagoon and the resolution of a synthetic grid used for the analysis. Nonetheless, it is expected that the qualitative results may be of use for identifying potential downgradient areas of concern that can then be evaluated using the quantitative “area contributing recharge to wells” method or traditional contaminant-transport simulations.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2014

Simulation of groundwater flow and interaction of groundwater and surface water on the Lac du Flambeau Reservation, Wisconsin

The Lac du Flambeau Band of Lake Superior Chippewa and Indian Health Service are interested in improving the understanding of groundwater flow and groundwater/surface-water interaction on the Lac du Flambeau Reservation (Reservation) in southwest Vilas County and southeast Iron County, Wisconsin, with particular interest in an understanding of the potential for contamination of groundwater supply wells and the fate of wastewater that is infiltrated from treatment lagoons on the Reservation. This report describes the construction, calibration, and application of a regional groundwater flow model used to simulate the shallow groundwater flow system of the Reservation and water-quality results for groundwater and surface-water samples collected near a system of waste-water-treatment lagoons. Groundwater flows through a permeable glacial aquifer that ranges in thickness from 60 to more than 200 feet (ft). Seepage and drainage lakes are common in the area and influence groundwater flow patterns on the Reservation. A two-dimensional, steady-state analytic element groundwater flow model was constructed using the program GFLOW. The model was calibrated by matching target water levels and stream base flows through the use of the parameter-estimation program, PEST. Simulated results illustrate that groundwater flow within most of the Reservation is toward the Bear River and the chain of lakes that feed the Bear River. Results of analyses of groundwater and surface-water samples collected downgradient from the wastewater infiltration lagoons show elevated levels of ammonia and dissolved phosphorus. In addition, wastewater indicator chemicals detected in three downgradient wells and a small downgradient stream indicate that infiltrated wastewater is moving southwest of the lagoons toward Moss Lake. Potential effects of extended wet and dry periods (within historical ranges) were evaluated by adjusting precipitation and groundwater recharge in the model and comparing the resulting simulated lake stage and water budgets to stages and water budgets from the calibrated model. Simulated lake water budgets and water level changes illustrate the importance of understanding the position of a lake within the hydrologic system (headwater or downstream), the type of lake (surface-water drainage or seepage lake), and the role of groundwater in dampening the effects of large-scale changes in weather patterns on lake levels. Areas contributing recharge to drinking-water supply wells on the Reservation were delineated using forward particle tracking from the water table to the well. Monte Carlo uncertainty analyses were used to produce maps showing the probability of groundwater capture for areas around each well nest. At the Main Pumphouse site near the Village of Lac du Flambeau, most of the area contributing recharge to the wells occurs downgradient from a large wetland between the wells and the wastewater infiltration lagoons. Nonetheless, a small potential for the wells to capture infiltrated wastewater is apparent when considering uncertainty in the model parameter values. At the West Pumphouse wells south of Flambeau Lake, most of the area contributing recharge is between the wells and Tippecanoe Lake. The extent of infiltrated wastewater from two infiltration lagoons was tracked using the groundwater flow model and Monte Carlo uncertainty analyses. Wastewater infiltrated from the lagoons flows predominantly south toward Moss Lake as it integrates with the regional groundwater flow system. The wastewater-plume-extent simulations support the area-contributing-recharge simulations, indicating that there is a possibility, albeit at low probability, that some wastewater could be captured by water-supply wells. Comparison of simulated water-table contours indicate that the lagoons may mound the water table approximately 4 ft, with diminishing levels of mounding outward from the lagoons. Four scenarios, representing potential alternatives for wastewater management, were simulated (at current discharge rates) to evaluate the potential extent of wastewater in the aquifer and discharge to surface-water bodies associated with each management scenario. Wastewater simulated to infiltrate through a hypothetical diffuser below a wetland south of the current lagoons appears to discharge to the overlying wetland and would likely discharge to Moss Lake as overland flow. Wastewater simulated to discharge to a small lake (Mindy Lake) between Moss and Fence Lakes appears to spread radically over a large area between the lakes. Wastewater simulated to discharge to lagoons south and northeast of the current lagoons also appears to spread radially, but the areas of the aquifer with the highest probability of encountering waste-water contamination would likely be between the lagoons and the nearest lake, where the wastewater would eventually discharge. Probability results for the wastewater-plume-extent scenarios are sensitive to the number of mathematical water particles used to represent infiltrating wastewater and the level of detail in the synthetic grid used for the probability analysis. Thus, probability results from wastewater-plume-extent simulations are qualitative only; however, it is expected that illustrations of relatively high or low probability will be useful as a general guide for decision making. Management problems requiring quantitative estimates of probability are best re-cast into problems evaluating the area that contributes recharge to the location of interest, which is not dependent upon the number of simulated particles or the resolution of a synthetic grid.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2013

Evaluation of potential sources and transport mechanisms of fecal indicator bacteria to beach water, Murphy Park Beach, Door County, Wisconsin

Fecal Indicator Bacteria (FIB) concentrations in beach water have been used for many years as a criterion for closing beaches due to potential health concerns. Yet, current understanding of sources and transport mechanisms that drive FIB occurrence remains insufficient for accurate prediction of closures at many beaches. Murphy Park Beach, a relatively pristine beach on Green Bay in Door County, Wis., was selected for a study to evaluate FIB sources and transport mechanisms. Although the relatively pristine nature of the beach yielded no detection of pathogenic bacterial genes and relatively low FIB concentrations during the study period compared with other Great Lakes Beaches, its selection limited the number of confounding FIB sources and associated transport mechanisms. The primary sources of FIB appear to be internal to the beach rather than external sources such as rivers, storm sewer outfalls, and industrial discharges. Three potential FIB sources were identified: sand, swash-zone groundwater, and Cladophora mats. Modest correlations between FIB concentrations in these potential source reservoirs and FIB concentrations at the beach from the same day illustrate the importance of understanding transport mechanisms between FIB sources and the water column. One likely mechanism for transport and dispersion of FIB from sand and Cladophora sources appears to be agitation of Cladophora mats and erosion of beach sand due to storm activity, as inferred from storm indicators including turbidity, wave height, current speed, wind speed, sky visibility, 24-hour precipitation, and suspended particulate concentration. FIB concentrations in beach water had a statistically significant relation (p-value &lsaquo;0.05) with the magnitude of these storm indicators. In addition, transport of FIB in swash-zone groundwater into beach water appears to be driven by groundwater recharge associated with multiday precipitation and corresponding increased swash-zone groundwater discharge at the beach, as indicated by an increase in the specific conductance of beach water. Understanding the dynamics of FIB sources (sand, swash-zone groundwater, and Cladophora ) and transport mechanisms (dispersion and erosion from storm energy, and swash-zone groundwater discharge) is important for improving predictions of potential health risks from FIB in beach water.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2013

Simulation of the shallow groundwater-flow system in the Forest County Potawatomi Community, Forest County, Wisconsin

The shallow groundwater system in the Forest County Potawatomi Comminity, Forest County, Wisconsin, was simulated by expanding and recalibrating a previously calibrated regional model. The existing model was updated using newly collected water-level measurements, inclusion of surface-water features beyond the previous near-field boundary, and refinements to surface-water features. The updated model then was used to calculate the area contributing recharge for seven existing and three proposed pumping locations on lands of the Forest County Potawatomi Community. The existing wells were the subject of a 2004 source-water evaluation in which areas contributing recharge were calculated using the fixed-radius method. The motivation for the present (2012) project was to improve the level of detail of areas contributing recharge for the existing wells and to provide similar analysis for the proposed wells. Delineated 5- and 10-year areas contributing recharge for existing and proposed wells extend from the areas of pumping to delineate the area at the surface contributing recharge to the wells. Steady-state pumping was simulated for two scenarios: a base-pumping scenario using pumping rates that reflect what the Community currently (2012) pumps (or plans to in the case of proposed wells), and a high-pumping scenario in which the rate was set to the maximum expected from wells installed in this area, according to the Forest County Potawatomi Community Natural Resources Department. In general, the 10-year areas contributing recharge did not intersect surface-water bodies. The 5- and 10-year areas contributing recharge simulated at the maximum pumping rate at Bug Lake Road may intersect Bug Lake. At the casino near the Town of Carter, Wisconsin, the 10-year areas contributing recharge intersect infiltration ponds. At the Devils Lake and Lois Crow Drive wells, areas contributing recharge are near cultural features, including residences.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2013

Hydrology and water quality of Shell Lake, Washburn County, Wisconsin, with special emphasis on the effects of diversion and changes in water level on the water quality of a shallow terminal lake

Shell Lake is a relatively shallow terminal lake (tributaries but no outlets) in northwestern Wisconsin that has experienced approximately 10 feet (ft) of water-level fluctuation over more than 70 years of record and extensive flooding of nearshore areas starting in the early 2000s. The City of Shell Lake (City) received a permit from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources in 2002 to divert water from the lake to a nearby river in order to lower water levels and reduce flooding. Previous studies suggested that water-level fluctuations were driven by long-term cycles in precipitation, evaporation, and runoff, although questions about the lake’s connection with the groundwater system remained. The permit required that the City evaluate assumptions about lake/groundwater interactions made in previous studies and evaluate the effects of the water diversion on water levels in Shell Lake and other nearby lakes. Therefore, a cooperative study between the City and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was initiated to improve the understanding of the hydrogeology of the area and evaluate potential effects of the diversion on water levels in Shell Lake, the surrounding groundwater system, and nearby lakes. Concerns over deteriorating water quality in the lake, possibly associated with changes in water level, prompted an additional cooperative project between the City and the USGS to evaluate efeffects of changes in nutrient loading associated with changes in water levels on the water quality of Shell Lake. Numerical models were used to evaluate how the hydrology and water quality responded to diversion of water from the lake and historical changes in the watershed. The groundwater-flow model MODFLOW was used to simulate groundwater movement in the area around Shell Lake, including groundwater/surface-water interactions. Simulated results from the MODFLOW model indicate that groundwater flows generally northward in the area around Shell Lake, with flow locally converging toward the lake. Total groundwater inflow to Shell Lake is small (approximately 5 percent of the water budget) compared with water entering the lake from precipitation (83 percent) and surface-water runoff (13 percent). The MODFLOW model also was used to simulate average annual hydrologic conditions from 1949 to 2009, including effects of the removal of 3 billion gallons of water during 2003–5. The maximum decline in simulated average annual water levels for Shell Lake due to the diversion alone was 3.3 ft at the end of the diversion process in 2005. Model simulations also indicate that although water level continued to decline through 2009 in response to local weather patterns (local drought), the effects of the diversion decreased after the diversion ceased; that is, after 4 years of recovery (2006–9), drawdown attributable to the diversion alone decreased by about 0.6 ft because of increased groundwater inflow and decreased lake-water outflow to groundwater caused by the artificially lower lake level. A delayed response in drawdown of less than 0.5 ft was transmitted through the groundwater-flow system to upgradient lakes. This relatively small effect on upgradient lakes is attributed in part to extensive layers of shallow clay that limit lake/groundwater interaction in the area. Data collected in the lake indicated that Shell Lake is polymictic (characterized by frequent deep mixing) and that its productivity is limited by the amount of phosphorus in the lake. The lake was typically classified as oligotrophic-mesotrophic in June, mesotrophic in July, and mesotrophic-eutrophic in August. In polymictic lakes like Shell Lake, phosphorus released from the sediments is not trapped near the bottom of the lake but is intermittently released to the shallow water, resulting in deteriorating water quality as summer progresses. Because the productivity of Shell Lake is limited by phosphorus, the sources of phosphorus to the lake were quantified, and the response in water quality to changes in phosphorus inputs were evaluated by means of eutrophication models. During 2009, the total input of phosphorus to Shell Lake was 1,730 pounds (lb), of which 1,320 lb came from external sources (76 percent) and 414 lb came from internal loading from sediments in the lake (24 percent). The largest external source was from surface-water runoff, which delivered about 52 percent of the total phosphorus load compared with about 13 percent of the water input. The second largest source was from precipitation (wetfall and dryfall), which delivered 19 percent of the load compared to about 83 percent of the water input. Contributions from septic systems and groundwater accounted for about 3 and 2 percent, respectively. Increased runoff raises water levels in the lake but does not necessarily increase phosphorus loading because phosphorus concentrations in the tributaries decline during increased flow, possibly because of shorter retention times in upstream wetlands. Phosphorus loading to the lake in 2009 represented what occurred after a series of dry years; therefore, this information was combined with data from 2011, a wet year, to estimate phosphorus loading during a range of hydrologic conditions by estimating loading from each component of the phosphorus budget for each year from 1949 to 2011. Comparisons of historical water-quality records with historical water levels and applications of a hydrodynamic model (Dynamic Lake Model, DLM) and empirical eutrophication models were used to understand how changes in water level and the coinciding changes in phosphorus loading affect the water quality of Shell Lake. DLM simulations indicate that large changes in water level (approximately 10 ft) affect the persistence of stratification in the lake. During periods with low water levels, the lake is a well-mixed, polymictic system, with water quality degrading slightly as summer progresses. During periods with high water levels, the lake is more stratified, and phosphorus from internal loading is trapped in the hypolimnion and released later in summer, which results in more extreme seasonality in water quality and better clarity in early summer. Results of eutrophication model simulations using a range in external phosphorus inputs illustrate how water quality in Shell Lake (phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations and Secchi depths) responds to changes in external phosphorus loading. Results indicate that a 50-percent reduction in external loading from that measured in 2009 would be required to change phosphorus concentrations from 0.018 milligram per liter (mg/L) (measured in 2009) to 0.012 mg/L (estimated for the mid-1800s from analysis of diatoms in sediment cores). Such reductions in phosphorus loading cannot be accomplished by targeting septic systems or internal loading alone because septic systems contribute only about 3 percent of the phosphorus input to the lake, and internal loading from the sediments of Shell Lake contributes only about 25 percent of phosphorus input. Complete elimination of phosphorus from septic systems and internal loading would decrease the phosphorus concentrations in the lake by 0.003–0.004 mg/L. Therefore, reducing phosphorus concentration in the lake more than by 0.004 mg/L requires decreasing phosphorus loading from surface-water contributions, primarily runoff to the lake. Reconstructed changes in water quality from 1860 to 2010, based on changes in the diatom communities archived in the sediments and eutrophication model simulations, suggest that anthropogenic changes in the watershed (sawmill construction in 1881; the establishment of the village of Shell Lake; and land-use changes in the 1920s, including increased agriculture) had a much larger effect on water quality than the natural changes associated with fluctuations in water level. Although the effects of natural changes in water level on water quality appear to be small, changes in water level do have a modest effect on water quality, primarily manifested as small improvements during higher water levels. Fluctuations in water level, however, have a larger effect on the seasonality of water-quality patterns, with better water quality, especially increased Secchi depths, in early summer during years with high water levels.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2012

Water quality, hydrology, and simulated response to changes in phosphorus loading of Mercer Lake, Iron County, Wisconsin, with special emphasis on the effects of wastewater discharges

Mercer Lake is a relatively shallow drainage lake in north-central Wisconsin. The area near the lake has gone through many changes over the past century, including urbanization and industrial development. To try to improve the water quality of the lake, actions have been taken, such as removal of the lumber mill and diversion of all effluent from the sewage treatment plant away from the lake; however, it is uncertain how these actions have affected water quality. Mercer Lake area residents and authorities would like to continue to try to improve the water quality of the lake; however, they would like to place their efforts in the actions that will have the most beneficial effects. To provide a better understanding of the factors affecting the water quality of Mercer Lake, a detailed study of the lake and its watershed was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in collaboration with the Mercer Lake Association. The purposes of the study were to describe the water quality of the lake and the composition of its sediments; quantify the sources of water and phosphorus loading to the lake, including sources associated with wastewater discharges; and evaluate the effects of past and future changes in phosphorus inputs on the water quality of the lake using eutrophication models (models that simulate changes in phosphorus and algae concentrations and water clarity in the lake). Based on analyses of sediment cores and monitoring data collected from the lake, the water quality of Mercer Lake appears to have degraded as a result of the activities in its watershed over the past 100 years. The water quality appears to have improved, however, since a sewage treatment plant was constructed in 1965 and its effluent was routed away from the lake in 1995. Since 2000, when a more consistent monitoring program began, the water quality of the lake appears to have changed very little. During the two monitoring years (MY) 2008-09, the average summer near-surface concentration of total phosphorus was 0.023 mg/L, indicating the lake is borderline mesotrophic-eutrophic, or has moderate to high concentrations of phosphorus, whereas the average summer chlorophyll a concentration was 3.3 mg/L and water clarity, as measured with a Secchi depth, was 10.4 ft, both indicating mesotrophic conditions or that the lake has a moderate amount of algae and water clarity. Although actions have been taken to eliminate the wastewater discharges, the bottom sediment still has slightly elevated concentrations of several pollutants from wastewater discharges, lumber operations, and roadway drainage, and a few naturally occurring metals (such as iron). None of the concentrations, however, were high enough above the defined thresholds to be of concern. Based on nitrogen to phosphorus ratios, the productivity (algal growth) in Mercer Lake should typically be limited by phosphorus; therefore, understanding the phosphorus input to the lake is important when management efforts to improve or prevent degradation of the lake water quality are considered. Total inputs of phosphorus to Mercer Lake were directly estimated for MY 2008-09 at about 340 lb/yr and for a recent year with more typical hydrology at about 475 lb/yr. During these years, the largest sources of phosphorus were from Little Turtle Inlet, which contributed about 45 percent, and the drainage area near the lake containing the adjacent urban and residential developments, which contributed about 24 percent. Prior to 1965, when there was no sewage treatment plant and septic systems and other untreated systems contributed nutrients to the watershed, phosphorus loadings were estimated to be about 71 percent higher than during around 2009. In 1965, a sewage treatment plant was built, but its effluent was released in the downstream end of the lake. Depending on various assumptions on how much effluent was retained in the lake, phosphorus inputs from wastewater may have ranged from 0 to 342 lb. Future highway and stormwater improvements have been identified in the Mercer Infrastructure Improvement Project, and if they are done with the proposed best management practices, then phosphorus inputs to the lake may decrease by about 40 lb. Eutrophication models [Canfield and Bachman model (1981) and Carlson Trophic State Index equations (1977)] were used to predict how the water quality of Mercer Lake should respond to changes in phosphorus loading. A relatively linear response was found between phosphorus loading and phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations in the lake, with changes in phosphorus concentrations being slightly less (about 80 percent) and changes in chlorophyll a concentrations being slightly more (about 120 percent) than the changes in phosphorus loadings to the lake. Water clarity, indicated by Secchi depths, responded more to decreases in phosphorus loading than to increases in loading. Results from the eutrophication models indicated that the lake should have been negatively affected by the wastewater discharges. Prior to 1965, when there was no sewage treatment plant effluent and inputs from the septic systems and other untreated systems were thought to be high, the lake should have been eutrophic; near the surface, average phosphorus concentrations were almost 0.035 mg/L, chlorophyll a concentrations were about 7 μg/L, and Secchi depths were about 6 ft, which agreed with the shallower Secchi depths during this time estimated from the sediment-core analysis. The models indicated that between 1965 and 1995, when the lake retained some of the effluent from the new sewage treatment plant, water quality should have been between the conditions estimated prior to 1965 and what was expected during typical hydrologic conditions around MY 2008-09. The models also indicated that if the future Mercer Infrastructure Improvement Project is conducted with the best management practices as proposed, the water quality in the lake could improve slightly from that measured during 2006-10. Because of the small amount of phosphorus that is presently input into Mercer Lake any additional phosphorus added to the lake could degrade water quality; therefore, management actions can usefully focus on minimizing future phosphorus inputs. Phosphorus released from the sediments of a degraded lake often delays its response to decreases in external phosphorus loading, especially in shallow, frequently mixed systems. Mercer Lake, however, remains stratified throughout most of the summer, and phosphorus released from the sediments represents only about 6 percent, or a small fraction, of the total phosphorus load to the lake. Therefore, the phosphorus trapped in the sediments should minimally affect the long-term water quality of the lake and should not delay the response in its productivity to future changes in nutrient loading from its watershed.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2012

Estimation of natural historical flows for the Manitowish River near Manitowish Waters, Wisconsin

The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources is charged with oversight of dam operations throughout Wisconsin and is considering modifications to the operating orders for the Rest Lake Dam in Vilas County, Wisconsin. State law requires that the operation orders be tied to natural low flows at the dam. Because the presence of the dam confounds measurement of natural flows, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, installed streamflow-gaging stations and developed two statistical methods to improve estimates of natural flows at the Rest Lake Dam. Two independent methods were used to estimate daily natural flow for the Manitowish River approximately 1 mile downstream of the Rest Lake Dam. The first method was an adjusted drainage-area ratio method, which used a regression analysis that related measured water yield (flow divided by watershed area) from short-term (2009–11) gaging stations upstream of the Manitowish Chain of Lakes to the water yield from two nearby long-term gaging stations in order to extend the flow record (1991–2011). In this approach, the computed flows into the Chain of Lakes at the upstream gaging stations were multiplied by a coefficient to account for the monthly hydrologic contributions (precipitation, evaporation, groundwater, and runoff) associated with the additional watershed area between the upstream gaging stations and the dam at the outlet of the Chain of Lakes (Rest Lake Dam). The second method used to estimate daily natural flow at the Rest Lake Dam was a water-budget approach, which used lake stage and dam outflow data provided by the dam operator. A water-budget model was constructed and then calibrated with an automated parameter-estimation program by matching simulated flow-duration statistics with measured flow-duration statistics at the upstream gaging stations. After calibration of the water-budget model, the model was used to compute natural flow at the dam from 1973 to 2011. Daily natural flows at the dam, as computed by the adjusted drainage-area ratio method and the water-budget method, were used to compute monthly flow-duration values for the period of historical data available for each method. Monthly flow-durations provide a means for evaluating the frequency and range in flows that have been observed for each month over the course of many years. Both methods described the pattern and timing of measured high-flow and low-flow events at the upstream gaging stations. The adjusted drainage-area ratio method generally had smaller residual errors across the full range of observed flows and had smaller monthly biases than the water-budget method. Although it is not possible to evaluate which method may be more "correct" for estimating monthly natural flows at the dam, comparisons between the results of each method indicate that the adjusted drainage-area ratio method may be susceptible to biases at high flows due to isolated storms outside of the Manitowish River watershed. Conversely, it appears that the water-budget method may be susceptible to biases at low flows because of its sensitivity to the accuracy of reported lake stage and outflows, as well as effects of upstream diversions that could not be fully compensated for with this method. Results from both methods are useful for understanding the natural flow patterns at the dam. Flows for both methods have similar patterns, with high median flows in spring and low median flows in late summer. Similarly, the range from monthly high-flow durations to low-flow durations increases during spring, decreases during summer, and increases again during fall. These seasonal patterns illustrate a challenge with interpreting a single value of natural low flow. That is, a natural low flow computed for September is not representative of a natural low flow in April. Moreover, alteration of natural flows caused by storing water in the Chain of Lakes during spring and releasing it in fall causes a change in the timing of high and low flows compared with natural conditions. That is, the lowest reported dam outflows occurred in spring and highest reported outflows occurred in fall, which is opposite the natural patterns.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2011

Simulation of the shallow groundwater-flow system near Mole Lake, Forest County, Wisconsin

The shallow groundwater system near Mole Lake, Forest County, Wis. was simulated using a previously calibrated regional model. The previous model was updated using newly collected water-level measurements and refinements to surface-water features. The updated model was then used to calculate the area contributing recharge for one existing and two proposed pumping locations on lands of the Sokaogon Chippewa Community. Delineated 1-, 5-, and 10-year areas contributing recharge for existing and proposed wells extend from the areas of pumping to the northeast of the pumping locations. Steady-state pumping was simulated for two scenarios: a base pumping scenario using pumping rates that reflect what the Tribe expects to pump and a high pumping scenario, in which the rate was set to the maximum expected from wells installed in this area. In the base pumping scenario, pumping rates of 32 gallons per minute (gal/min; 46,000 gallons per day (gal/d)) from the existing well and 30 gal/min (43,000 gal/d) at each of the two proposed wells were simulated. The high pumping scenario simulated a rate of 70 gal/min (101,000 gal/d) from each of the three pumping wells to estimate of the largest areas contributing recharge that might be expected given what is currently known about the shallow groundwater system. The areas contributing recharge for both the base and high pumping scenarios did not intersect any modeled surface-water bodies; however, the high pumping scenario had a larger areal extent than the base pumping scenario and intersected a septic separator.

Wisconsin↗