Geology topics

Larry G. Mastin

Publications and source records attributed to Larry G. Mastin.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Satellite observations, plume dynamics and volcanic lightning from the 2023 eruption of Shishaldin Volcano, Alaska

The 2023 eruption of Shishaldin Volcano, Alaska, provided an unusually well-monitored example of a “dry” (non-hydromagmatic) explosive basaltic eruption with sustained, buoyant plumes, and pyroclastic density currents. Here, we examine the 13 basaltic paroxysms that occurred between July and November 2023 using geostationary satellite observations, plume modeling, and volcanic lightning detection to characterize mass eruption rates and plume dynamics. We show that seven volcanic plumes reached 10–14 km above sea level, sustained for minutes to tens of minutes. Translating plume heights into mass eruption rates, using both empirical scaling and one-dimensional plume modeling, gives peak rates of 10 4 –10 7 kg·s −1 and a total erupted volume of ~ 0.05 km 3 (dense rock equivalent) across the eruption sequence. Despite the moderate intensity of this eruption, automated satellite detection algorithms generally failed to detect volcanic ash. We attribute this persistent challenge to the fines-poor grain size distribution of the eruption. Volcanic lightning provides an additional window into the eruption dynamics. A total of 491 volcanic lightning flashes were detected, concentrated during seven of the most energetic phases. The timing of this electrical activity suggests that lightning only became detectable by the global lightning monitoring network when plumes ascended to atmospheric levels favorable for ice formation. Based on the available data, we infer that the low fine ash content of the plumes, combined with minimal water and ice, led to the overall modest rates of lightning (1–13 flashes per minute) compared to “wet” eruptions of similar intensity. These results show that combining satellite observations, plume modeling, and lightning detection provides a valuable timeline of eruptive intensity, even for “dry” basaltic eruptions in remote locations.

Alaska↗

USGS2026

Effects of external water on volcanic column height and collapse

Volcanic plumes are important because they spread volcanic material, can impact climate, and pose hazards to aviation. Among eruption processes, column collapse is arguably the most consequential in terms of direct impacts, as it marks the onset of ground-hugging pyroclastic density currents that pose the greatest immediate threat to life and infrastructure. This study inves- tigates how external water, such as is incorporated during subaqueous eruptions, affects the critical condition (including mass eruption rate, temperature, and gas fraction) at which column collapse occurs in the atmosphere, referred to as “the column collapse condition”. We use the 1-D plume model, Plumeria , to explore how variations in external water (0–60 wt.%), vent exit velocity (75–125 m s −1 ), and initial magma temperature (700–1100 °C) affect the column collapse condition. We find that the occurrence of column collapse is highly sensitive to the amount of external water. Small amounts of external water (⪅ 25 wt.%) suppress column collapse, whereas higher amounts of water encourage collapse. Using more than 150,000 simulations, we map out the highly non-linear shape of the column collapse condition as a function of mass eruption rates and external water contents. The Richardson number, the ratio of buoyancy to shear forces, offers a useful framework for defining the column collapse condition for eruptions involving external water. This work enhances our understanding of how external water ingestion affects volcanic plume dynamics, including height and column collapse conditions. Recent shallow submarine eruptions that produced very tall atmospheric plumes and partial column collapse (e.g. the 2021 Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba eruption in Japan and the 2022 Hunga eruption in Tonga) demonstrate the importance of understanding how external water influences the collapse of eruption columns.

Volcanica↗

USGS2026

Delayed submarine caldera subsidence creates extreme tsunami hazard

The 2022 Hunga volcano eruption generated one of the largest and most destructive volcanic tsunamis ever recorded. We interpret the timing, nature and relative hazard of volcanic-tsunamigenic processes by combining geophysical, oceanographic, atmospheric, and eye-witness observations of this event. Hydro-acoustic signal ( T waves) detected on seismic stations up to 2600 km away provided a key to discerning tsunami triggers from explosions, volcanic mass flows, and caldera subsidence. The largest tsunami was generated by the first of at least two sudden caldera-subsidence events. This occurred 1 hour after globally detected explosions that produced smaller tsunami. Our results provide rare insights into the rates of caldera subsidence and highlight the complex multiple sources of tsunamis resulting from eruptions of oceanic volcanoes.

Hunga volcano↗

USGS2025

A 400-k.y. perspective on arc volcanism: An exceptional explosive eruption record from Central Mexico

Volcanic eruption records provide key information for hazard planning but suffer from a time-dependent loss of resolution, hindering long-term evaluations of volcano behavior. Here, we investigate an exceptional sedimentary sequence from Lake Chalco, on the SE edge of Mexico City, which provides a perspective on volcanic activity over hundred-thousand-year time scales, and we develop a methodological and analytical protocol applicable to core datasets globally. The lava-dominated base of the sequence (~105 m) is followed by ~155 m of lateral-collapse derived deposits and overlain by ~295 m of lacustrine sediments containing at least 450 visible tephra fall deposits (TFDs), spanning 400 k.y. These TFDs include 205 events sourced from large-magnitude (predominantly volcanic explosivity index [VEI] ≥5) silicic explosive eruptions, principally from regional polygenetic sources, and 205 deposits from the nearby Sierra Chichinautzin volcanic field (SCVF). A gradual decline in both frequency and apparent magnitude in the silicic eruption record is consistent with the gradual migration of volcanism south along the adjacent Sierra Nevada volcanic range, toward Popocatépetl. In contrast, the SCVF-derived deposits imply persistent but episodic activity, on time scales of 40–70 k.y., suggesting that the SCVF has been more continuously active than previously recognized. Decoupled trends between the SCVF and regional silicic sources implies that the total magmatic flux is not dictated at the arc scale, or by external (e.g., climatic) drivers, but instead reflects the independent development of individual volcanic systems. The records indicate a minimum long-term frequency of impactful eruptions on Mexico City to be one per 900 years (>1 cm tephra deposited) or 9000 years (≥10 cm tephra).

Central Mexico↗

USGS2024

Dynamics, monitoring and forecasting of tephra in the atmosphere

Explosive volcanic eruptions inject hot mixtures of solid particles (tephra) and gasses into the atmosphere. Entraining ambient air, these mixtures can form plumes rising tens of kilometers until they spread laterally, forming umbrella clouds. While the largest clasts tend to settle in proximity to the volcano, the smallest fragments, commonly referred to as ash (≤2 mm in diameter), can be transported over long distances, forming volcanic clouds. Tephra plumes and clouds pose significant hazards to human society, affecting infrastructure, and human health through deposition on the ground or airborne suspension at low altitudes. Additionally, volcanic clouds are a threat to aviation, during both high-risk actions such as take-off and landing and at standard cruising altitudes. The ability to monitor and forecast tephra plumes and clouds is fundamental to mitigate the hazard associated with explosive eruptions. To that end, various monitoring techniques, ranging from ground-based instruments to sensors on-board satellites, and forecasting strategies, based on running numerical models to track the position of volcanic clouds, are efficiently employed. However, some limitations still exist, mainly due to the high unpredictability and variability of explosive eruptions, as well as the multiphase and complex nature of volcanic plumes. In the next decades, advances in monitoring and computational capabilities are expected to address these limitations and significantly improve the mitigation of the risk associated with tephra plumes and clouds.

Reviews of Geophysics↗

USGS2024

Characterising, quantifying, and accessing eruption source parameters of explosive volcanic eruptions for operational simulation of tephra dispersion: A current view and future perspectives

Eruption source parameters (ESPs) are crucial for characterising volcanic eruptions and are essential inputs to numerical models used for hazard assessment. Key ESPs of explosive volcanic eruptions include plume height, mass eruption rate, eruption duration, and grain-size distribution. Some of these ESPs can be directly observed during an eruption, but others are difficult to measure in real-time, or indeed, accurately and precisely quantify afterwards. Estimates of ESPs for eruptions that cannot be observed, for example, due to the remote location of a volcano or poor weather conditions, are often defined using expert judgement and data from past eruptions, both from the volcano of interest and analogue volcanoes farther afield. Analysis of such information is time intensive and difficult, particularly during eruption response. These difficulties have resulted in the production of datasets to aid quick identification of ESPs prior to or during an eruption for use in operational response settings such as those at volcano observatories and Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres. These resources include the Mastin et al. ( 2009a ) ESP dataset and the Catalogue of Icelandic Volcanoes and European Catalogue of Volcanoes aviation tables. Here, we review and compare these resources, which take different approaches to assigning ESPs. We identify future areas for development of these resources, highlighting the need for frequent updates as more knowledge of volcanic activity is gained and as modelling capabilities and requirements change.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS2024

Did steam boost the height and growth rate of the giant Hunga eruption plume?

The eruption of Hunga volcano on 15 January 2022 produced a higher plume and faster-growing umbrella cloud than has ever been previously recorded. The plume height exceeded 58 km, and the umbrella grew to 450 km in diameter within 50 min. Assuming an umbrella thickness of 10 km, this growth rate implied an average volume injection rate into the umbrella of 330–500 km 3 s −1 . Conventional relationships between plume height, umbrella-growth rate, and mass eruption rate suggest that this period of activity should have injected a few to several cubic kilometers of rock particles (tephra) into the plume. Yet tephra fall deposits on neighboring islands are only a few centimeters thick and can be reproduced using ash transport simulations with only 0.1–0.2 km 3 erupted volume (dense-rock equivalent). How could such a powerful eruption contain so little tephra? Here, we propose that seawater mixing at the vent boosted the plume height and umbrella growth rate. Using the one-dimensional (1-D) steady plume model Plumeria, we find that a plume fed by ~90% water vapor at a temperature of 100 °C (referred to here as steam) could have exceeded 50 km height while keeping the injection rate of solids low enough to be consistent with Hunga’s modest tephra-fall deposit volume. Steam is envisaged to rise from intense phreatomagmatic jets or pyroclastic density currents entering the ocean. Overall, the height and expansion rate of Hunga’s giant plume is consistent with the total mass of fall deposits plus underwater density current deposits, even though most of the erupted mass decoupled from the high plume. This example represents a class of high (> 10 km), ash-poor, steam-driven plumes, that also includes Kīlauea (2020) and Fukutoku-oka-no-ba (2021). Their height is driven by heat flux following well-established relations; however, most of the heat is contained in steam rather than particles. As a result, the heights of these water-rich plumes do not follow well-known relations with the mass eruption rate of tephra.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS2023

A one-dimensional volcanic plume model for predicting ash aggregation

During explosive volcanic eruptions, volcanic ash is ejected into the atmosphere, impacting aircraft safety and downwind communities. These volcanic clouds tend to be dominated by fine ash (<63 μm in diameter), permitting transport over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. However, field observations show that much of this fine ash aggregates into clusters or pellets with faster settling velocities than individual particles. Models of ash transport and deposition require an understanding of aggregation processes, which depend on factors like moisture content and local particle collision rates. In this study, we develop a Plume Model for Aggregate Prediction, a one-dimensional (1D) volcanic plume model that predicts the plume rise height, concentration of water phases, and size distribution of resulting ash aggregates from a set of eruption source parameters. The plume model uses a control volume approach to solve mass, momentum, and energy equations along the direction of the plume axis. The aggregation equation is solved using a fixed pivot technique and incorporates a sticking efficiency model developed from analog laboratory experiments of particle aggregation within a novel turbulence tower. When applied to the 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska, the 1D model predicts that the majority of the plume is over-saturated with water, leading to a high rate of aggregation. Although the mean grain size of the computed Redoubt aggregates is larger than the measured deposits, with a peak at 1 mm rather than 500 μm, the present results provide a quantitative estimate for the magnitude of aggregation in an eruption.

JGR Solid Earth↗

USGS2023

New insights into the relationship between mass eruption rate and volcanic column height based on the IVESPA dataset

Rapid and simple estimation of the mass eruption rate (MER) from column height is essential for real-time volcanic hazard management and reconstruction of past explosive eruptions. Using 134 eruptive events from the new Independent Volcanic Eruption Source Parameter Archive (IVESPA, v1.0), we explore empirical MER-height relationships for four measures of column height: spreading level, sulfur dioxide height, and top height from direct observations and as reconstructed from deposits. These relationships show significant differences and highlight limitations of empirical models currently used in operational and research applications. The roles of atmospheric stratification, wind, and humidity remain challenging to detect across the wide range of eruptive conditions spanned in IVESPA, ultimately resulting in empirical relationships outperforming analytical models that account for atmospheric conditions. This finding highlights challenges in constraining the MER-height relation using heterogeneous observations and empirical models, which reinforces the need for improved eruption source parameter data sets and physics-based models.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2023

Flow development and entrainment in turbulent particle-laden jets

Explosive eruptions expel volcanic gases and particles at high pressures and velocities. Within this multiphase fluid, small ash particles affect the flow dynamics, impacting mixing, entrainment, turbulence, and aggregation. To examine the role of turbulent particle behavior, we conducted an analogue experiment using a particle-laden jet. We used compressed air as the carrier fluid, considering turbulent conditions at Reynolds numbers from approximately 5,000 to 20,000. Two different particles were examined: 14-μm diameter solid nickel spheres and 13-μm diameter hollow glass spheres. These resulted in Stokes numbers between 1 and 35 based on the convective scale. The particle mass percentage in the mixture is varied from 0.3% to more than 20%. Based on a 1-D volcanic plume model, these Stokes numbers and mass loadings corresponded to millimeter-scale particle diameters at heights of 4–8 km above the vent during large, sustained eruptions. Through particle image velocimetry, we measured the mean flow behavior and the turbulence statistics in the near-exit region, primarily focusing on the dispersed phase. We show that the flow behavior is dominated by the particle inertia, with high Stokes numbers reducing the entrainment by more than 40%. When applied to volcanic plumes, these results suggest that high-density particles can greatly increase the probability of column collapse.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres↗

USGS2023

Dynamics of the December 2020 ash-poor plume formed by lava-water interaction at the summit of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

On 20 December 2020, after more than 2 years of quiescence at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi, renewed volcanic activity in the summit crater caused boiling of the water lake over a period of ∼90 min. The resulting water-rich, electrified plume rose to 11–13 km above sea level, which is among the highest plumes on record for Kīlauea. Although conventional models would infer a high mass flux from explosive magma-water interaction, the plume was not associated with an infrasound signal indicative of “explosive” activity, nor did it produce a measurable ash-fall deposit. We use multisensor data to characterize lava-water interaction and plume generation during this opening phase of the 2020–21 eruption. Satellite, weather radar, and eyewitness observations revealed that the plume was rich in water vapor and hydrometeors but transported less ash than expected from its maximum height. Volcanic lightning flashes detected by ground-based cameras were confined to freezing altitudes of the upper cloud, suggesting that the ice formation drove the electrification of this plume. The low acoustic energy from lava-water interaction points to a weakly explosive style of hydrovolcanism. Heat transfer calculations show that the lava to water heat flux was sufficient to boil the lake within 90 min. Limited mixing of lava and water inhibited major steam explosions and fine fragmentation. Results from one-dimensional plume modeling suggest that the models may underpredict plume height due to overestimation of crosswind air-entrainment. Our findings shed light on an unusual style of volcanism in which weakly explosive lava-water interaction generated an outsized plume.

Hawaii↗

USGS2023

A review of common natural disasters as analogs for asteroid impact effects and cascading hazards

Modern civilization has no collective experience with possible wide-ranging effects from a medium-sized asteroid impactor. Currently, modeling efforts that predict initial effects from a meteor impact or airburst provide needed information for initial preparation and evacuation plans, but longer-term cascading hazards are not typically considered. However, more common natural disasters, such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, wildfires, dust storms, and hurricanes, are likely analogs that can provide the scope and scale of these potential effects. These events, especially the larger events with cascading effects, are key for understanding the scope and complexity of mitigation, relief, and recovery efforts for a medium-sized asteroid impact event. This paper reviews the initial and cascading effects of these natural hazards, describes the state of the art for modeling these hazards, and discusses the relevance of these hazards to expected long-term effects of an asteroid impact. Emergency managers, resource managers and planners, and research scientists involved in mitigation and recovery efforts would likely derive significant benefit from a framework linking multiple hazard models to provide a seamless sequence of related forecasts.

Natural Hazards↗

USGS2023

Asteroid impacts and cascading hazards

The initial effects from an asteroid impact are generally well characterized and include thermal radiation and blast waves. If the impactor is sufficiently large, either an earthquake or tsunami can also result, depending on whether the impact occurs over land or water. However, the longer-term effects that extend beyond the area initially affected are less well characterized. Because regional effects not only depend on the size of the impactor, but also on the location and timing of the event, case studies of impact events in various regions should be conducted to better understand how asteroid impact induced cascading hazards may vary. For this study, we use the initial impact effects from an 800-m asteroid strike at two locations: Dallas, TX, USA and Jebba, Nigeria. A detailed analysis of the regional impacts on Texas and Nigeria will be presented at the time of the conference.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2022

Understanding and modeling tephra transport: Lessons learned from the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens

Discoveries made during the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens advanced our understanding of tephra transport and deposition in fundamental ways. The eruption enabled detailed, quantitative observations of downwind cloud movement and particle sedimentation, along with the dynamics of co-pyroclastic-density current (PDC) clouds lofted from ground-hugging currents. The deposit was mapped and sampled over more than 150,000 km 2 within days of the event and remains among the most thoroughly documented tephra deposits in the world. Abundant observations were made possible by the large size of the eruption, its occurrence in good weather during daylight hours, cloud movement over a large, populated continent, and the availability of images from recently deployed satellites. These observations underpinned new, quantitative models for the rise and growth of volcanic plumes, the importance of umbrella clouds in dispersing ash, and the roles of particle aggregation and gravitational instabilities in removing ash from the atmosphere. Exceptional detail in the eruption chronology and deposit characterization helped identify the eruptive phases contributing to deposition in different sectors of the distal deposit. The eruption was the first to significantly impact civil aviation, leading to the earliest documented case of in-flight engine damage. Continued eruptive activity in 1980 also motivated pioneering use of meteorological models to forecast ash-cloud movement. In this paper, we consider the most important discoveries and how they changed the science of tephra transport.

Washington↗

USGS2022

Spatial analysis of globally detected volcanic lightning from the June 2019 eruption of Raikoke volcano, Kuril Islands

The 21–22 June 2019 eruption of Raikoke volcano, Russia, provided an opportunity to explore how spatial trends in volcanic lightning locations provide insights into pulsatory eruption dynamics. Using satellite-derived plume heights, we examine the development of lightning detected by Vaisala’s Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360) from eleven, closely spaced eruptive pulses. Results from one-dimensional plume modeling show that the eruptive pulses with maximum heights 9–16.5 km above sea level were capable of producing ice in the upper troposphere, which contributed variably to electrification and volcanic lightning. A key finding is that lightning locations not only followed the main dispersal direction of these ash plumes, but also tracked a lower-level cloud derived from pyroclastic density currents. We show a positive relationship between umbrella cloud expansion and the area over which lightning occurs (the ‘lightning footprint’). These observations suggest useful metrics to characterize ongoing eruptive activity in near real-time.

Kuril Islands, Raikoke volcano↗

USGS2022

Modelling the transport and deposition of ash following a magnitude 7 eruption: The distal Mazama tephra

Volcanic ash transport and dispersion models (VATDMs) are necessary for forecasting tephra dispersal during volcanic eruptions and are a useful tool for estimating the eruption source parameters (ESPs) of prehistoric eruptions. Here we use Ash3D, an Eulerian VATDM, to simulate the tephra deposition from the ~ 7.7 ka climactic eruption of Mount Mazama. We investigate how best to apply a VATDM using the ESPs characteristic of a large magnitude eruption (M ≥ 7). We simplify the approach to focus on the distal deposit as if it were formed by a single phase of Plinian activity. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to use modern wind profiles to simulate the tephra dispersal from a prehistoric eruption; however, this introduces an inherent uncertainty to the subsequent simulations where we explore different ESPs. We show, using the well-documented distal Mazama tephra, that lateral umbrella cloud spreading, rather than advection–diffusion alone, must be included in the VATDM to reproduce the width of the isopachs. In addition, the Ash3D particle size distribution must be modified to simulate the transport and deposition of distal fine-grained (< 125 µm) Mazama ash. With these modifications, the Ash3D simulations reproduce the thickness and grain size of the Mazama tephra deposit. Based on our simulations, however, we conclude that the exact relationship between mass eruption rate and the scale of umbrella cloud spreading remains unresolved. Furthermore, for ground-based grain size distributions to be input directly into Ash3D, further research is required into the atmospheric and particle processes that control the settling behaviour of fine volcanic ash.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS2022

Forecasting and communicating the dispersion and fallout of ash during volcanic eruptions: lessons from the September 20, 2020 eruptive pulse at Sangay volcano, Ecuador

Volcanic ash is a hazard to human health and activities. Accurate and timely forecasts coupled with effective communication about the dispersion and fallout of volcanic ash during explosive events are essential to reduce impacts on local communities and limit economic losses. In this study, we present the first detailed description of an eruptive pulse at Sangay volcano and its eruption source parameters. The eruptive pulse on September 20, 2020, started at about 9:20 UTC and lasted between 90 and 100 min, producing an eruptive column that rapidly separated into (1) a higher (15.2 km above sea level, asl), gas-rich cloud moving east-southeast and (2) a lower (12.2 km asl), ash-rich cloud moving west and causing ash fallout up to 280 km from the volcano. Field data collected immediately after the event allow estimating the volume of bulk tephra to be between 1.5 and 5.0 × 10 6 m 3 , corresponding to a volcanic explosivity index of 2. The eruptive pulse, identified as violent Strombolian, emitted andesitic ash that was more mafic than products ejected by Sangay volcano in recent decades. Component analysis and glass chemistry of juvenile particles support the hypothesis that this event excavated deeper into the upper conduit compared to typical Strombolian activity at Sangay volcano, while grain-size analysis allows reconstruction of the total grain-size distribution of the fallout deposit. The discrepancies between the ash fallout simulations performed with the Ash3D online tool and the actual deposit are mainly the result of inaccurate pre- and syn-eruptive configurations and highlight the importance of additional processes such as aggregation. Communication products issued during the event included (1) several standard short reports, (2) volcano observatory notices for aviation, (3) social media posts, and (4) a special report providing the results of the ash fallout simulation. Although communication was effective with the authorities and the connected population, an effort must be made to reach the most vulnerable isolated communities for future events. This study shows that forecasting ash dispersion and fallout during volcanic eruptions can guide early warnings and trigger humanitarian actions, and should become a standard in volcano observatories worldwide.

Sangay volcano↗

USGS2021

Progress in protecting air travel from volcanic ash clouds

The Eyjafjallajökull eruption of 2010 demonstrated the far-reaching impact of ash clouds and the vulnerability of our jet-based society to them, prompting a review of procedures to detect, warn, and forecast ash cloud hazards to aviation. The years since 2010 have seen marked improvements in satellite technology, more accurate ash-dispersion models that integrate simulations with observations, and more thoroughly vetted and harmonized procedures for forecasting and communicating hazards. In the coming decade, we expect these trends to continue, with formal warning products migrating from text and simplified maps to 4D data streams. This paper details some of these advancements and challenges ahead.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗