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D.R. Cayan

Publications and source records attributed to D.R. Cayan.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2000

Winter-spring 2001 United States streamflow probabilities based on anticipated neutral ENSO conditions and recent NPO status

An analysis of historical floods and seasonal streamflows during years with neutral El NiñoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the tropical Pacific and “negative” states of the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) in the North Pacific—like those expected next year—indicates that (1) chances of having maximum-daily flows next year that are near the longterm averages in many rivers are enhanced, especially in the western states, (2) chances of having near-average seasonal-average flows also may be enhanced across the country, and (3) locally, chances of large floods and winter-season flows may be enhanced in the extreme Northwest, chances of large winter flows may be diminished in rivers in and around Wisconsin, and chances of large spring flows may be diminished in the interior southwest and southeastern coastal plain. The background, methods, and forecast results that lead to these statements are detailed below, followed by a summary of the successes and failures of last year’s streamflow forecast by Dettinger et al. (1999).

Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin↗
USGS1999

Precipitation structure in the Sierra Nevada of California during winter

Influences of upper air characteristics along the coast of California upon winter-time (November-April) precipitation in the Sierra Nevada are investigated. Precipitation events in the Sierra Nevada region occur mostly during wintertime, irrespective of station location (leeside or windside) and elevation. Most precipitation episodes in the region are associated with moist southwesterly winds (coming from the southwest direction) and also tend to occur when the 700-mbar temperature at the upwind direction is close to −2°C. This favored wind direction and temperature signify the importance of both moisture transport and orographic lifting in augmenting precipitation in the region. By utilizing the observed dependency of the precipitation upon the upper air conditions, a linear model is formulated to quantify the precipitation observed at different sites as a function of moisture transport. The skill of the model increases with timescale of aggregation, reaching more than 50% variance explained at an aggregation period of 5–7 days. This indicates that upstream air moisture transport can be used to estimate the precipitation totals in the Sierra Nevada region.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗
USGS1999

ENSO and hydrologic extremes in the western United States

Frequency distributions of daily precipitation in winter and daily stream flow from late winter to early summer, at several hundred sites in the western United States, exhibit strong and systematic responses to the two phases of ENSO. Most of the stream flows considered are driven by snowmelt. The Southern Oscillation index (SOI) is used as the ENSO phase indicator. Both modest (median) and larger (90th percentile) events were considered. In years with negative SOI values (El Nino), days with high daily precipitation and stream flow are more frequent than average over the Southwest and less frequent over the Northwest. During years with positive SOI values (La Nina), a nearly opposite pattern is seen. A more pronounced increase is seen in the number of days exceeding climatological 90th percentile values than in the number exceeding climatological 50th percentile values, for both precipitation and stream flow. Stream flow responses to ENSO extremes are accentuated over precipitation responses. Evidence suggests that the mechanism for this amplification involves ENSO-phase differences in the persistence and duration of wet episodes, affecting the efficiency of the process by which precipitation is converted to runoff. The SOI leads the precipitation events by several months, and hydrologic lags (mostly through snowmelt) dealy the stream flow response by several more months. The combined 6-12 month predictive aspect of this relationship should be of significant benefit in responding to flood (or drought) risk and in improving overall water management in the western states.Frequency distributions of daily precipitation in winter and daily stream flow from late winter to early summer, at several hundred sites in the western United States, exhibit strong and systematic responses to the two phases of ENSO. Most of the stream flows considered are driven by snowmelt. The Southern Oscillation index (SOI) is used as the ENSO phase indicator. Both modest (median) and larger (90th percentile) events were considered. In years with negative SOI values (El Nino), days with high daily precipitation and stream flow are more frequent than average over the Southwest and less frequent over the Northwest. During years with positive SOI values (La Nina), a nearly opposite pattern is seen. A more pronounced increase is seen in the number of days exceeding climatological 90th percentile values than in the number exceeding climatological 50th percentile values, for both precipitation and stream flow. Stream flow responses to ENSO extremes are accentuated over precipitation responses. Evidence suggests that the mechanism for this amplification involves ENSO-phase differences in the persistence and duration of wet episodes, affecting the efficiency of the process by which precipitation is converted to runoff. The SOI leads the precipitation events by several months, and hydrologic lags (mostly through snowmelt) delay the stream flow response by several more months. The combined 6-12-month predictive aspect of this relationship should be of significant benefit in responding to flood (or drought) risk and in improving overall water management in the western states.

Journal of Climate↗
USGS1999

The spring runoff pulse from the Sierra Nevada

Just about every year there is one major first pulse of snowmelt runoff (streamflow) that marks the transition from winter to spring in high elevation, snowmelt driven watersheds in the western United States. As a index, we have used the record of relatively pristine streamflow at the Merced River, Happy Isles in Yosemite National Park to identify this transition for each year beginning in 1916. Two factors are prominent in determining the timing of the spring runnoff pulse: (1) it is delayed with greater seasonal accumulation of snow pack in the Yosemite region, and (2) the runoff pulse is triggered by a regional weather fluctuation that establishes a warm high pressure ridge over the California region during the spring (mid-March to Mid-May) period. Thus, the pulse involves both seasonal climate variability vis a vis the character of winter/spring water delivery to the western mountains and synoptic conditions associated with abrupt spring warming. Inspection of an extensive array of stream gage records over the western states finds that a simultaneous pulse occurs over a broad collection of high-elevation streams in the region. In this paper, we explore the predictability of the onset of these spring regional warmings, which often are marked by development of high pressure ridge over much of the western United States

Conference Paper↗
USGS1999

Global to local scale simulations of streamflow in the Merced, American, and Carson Rivers, Sierra Nevada, California

Atmospheric moisture transport and moisture budgets during winter (December-April) simulated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional spectral model (RSM) are examined and used to simulate streamflow variations in the Sierra Nevada. The RSM was nested in 2"-latitude x 2"-longitude NCEPreanalyzed atmospheric-data fields (as a surrogate for a perfect forecast system operating at the global scale). Precipitation, temperature, and solar insolation simulated by the RSM on a 50-km grid were inputted directly to precipitation-runoff models of the Merced, American, and Carson Rivers in an evaluation of the potential for end-to-end forecasting of streamflow and snowmelt runoff from the Sierra Nevada, near 39"N 120"W. Over the western United States, the RSM captures both patterns and magnitudes of precipitation (e.g., Fig. I illustrates observed and simulated precipitation for winter 1982-83). The RSM has dry biases in the Southeast and over the Gulf of Mexico, but it captures interannual and intraseasonal variations well. During most El Nifios, it simulates a precipitation dipole over the western states with wetter-than-normal conditions in California and drier-than-normal in the Pacific Northwest. The Northeast is relatively dry and the southern states are wet, as in observations. The RSM did equally well during La Niiia winters.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1999

United States streamflow probabilities based on forecasted La Nina, winter-spring 2000

Although for the last 5 months the TahitiDarwin Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has hovered close to normal, the “equatorial” SOI has remained in the La Niña category and predictions are calling for La Niña conditions this winter. In view of these predictions of continuing La Niña and as a direct extension of previous studies of the relations between El NiñoSouthern Oscil-lation (ENSO) conditions and streamflow in the United States (e.g., Redmond and Koch, 1991; Cayan and Webb, 1992; Redmond and Cayan, 1994; Dettinger et al., 1998; Garen, 1998; Cayan et al., 1999; Dettinger et al., in press), the probabilities that United States streamflows from December 1999 through July 2000 will be in upper and lower thirds (terciles) of the historical records are estimated here. The processes that link ENSO to North American streamflow are discussed in detail in these diagnostics studies. Our justification for generating this forecast is threefold: (1) Cayan et al. (1999) recently have shown that ENSO influences on streamflow variations and extremes are proportionately larger than the corresponding precipitation teleconnections. (2) Redmond and Cayan (1994) and Dettinger et al. (in press) also have shown that the low-frequency evolution of ENSO conditions support long-lead correlations between ENSO and streamflow in many rivers of the conterminous United States. (3) In many rivers, significant (weeks-to-months) delays between precipitation and the release to streams of snowmelt or ground-water discharge can support even longer term forecasts of streamflow than is possible for precipitation. The relatively slow, orderly evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation episodes, the accentuated dependence of streamflow upon ENSO, and the long lags between precipitation and flow encourage us to provide the following analysis as a simple prediction of this year’s river flows.

Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin↗
USGS1998

North-South precipitation patterns in western North America on interannual-to-decadal timescales

The overall amount of precipitation deposited along the West Coast and western cordillera of North America from 25??to 55??N varies from year to year, and superimposed on this domain-average variability are varying north-south contrasts on timescales from at least interannual to interdecadal. In order to better understand the north-south precipitation contrasts, their interannual and decadal variations are studied in terms of how much they affect overall precipitation amounts and how they are related to large-scale climatic patterns. Spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and spatial moments (domain average, central latitude, and latitudinal spread) of zonally averaged precipitation anomalies along the westernmost parts of North America are analyzed, and each is correlated with global sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature series, on interannual (defined here as 3-7 yr) and decadal (>7 yr) timescales. The interannual band considered here corresponds to timescales that are particularly strong in tropical climate variations and thus is expected to contain much precipitation variability that is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation; the decadal scale is defined so as to capture the whole range of long-term climatic variations affecting western North America. Zonal EOFs of the interannual and decadal filtered versions of the zonal-precipitation series are remarkably similar. At both timescales, two leading EOFs describe 1) a north-south seesaw of precipitation pivoting near 40??N and 2) variations in precipitation near 40??N, respectively. The amount of overall precipitation variability is only about 10% of the mean and is largely determined by precipitation variations around 40??-45??N and most consistently influenced by nearby circulation patterns; in this sense, domain-average precipitation is closely related to the second EOF. The central latitude and latitudinal spread of precipitation distributions are strongly influenced by precipitation variations in the southern parts of western North America and are closely related to the first EOF. Central latitude of precipitation moves south (north) with tropical warming (cooling) in association with midlatitude western Pacific SLP variations, on both interannual and decadal timescales. Regional patterns and zonal averages of precipitation-sensitive tree-ring series are used to corroborate these patterns and to extend them into the past and appear to share much long- and short-term information with the instrumentally based zonal precipitation EOFs and moments.The overall amount of precipitation deposited along the West Coast and western cordillera of North America from 25?? to 55 ??N varies from year to year, and superimposed on this domain-average variability are varying north-south contrasts on timescales from at least interannual to interdecadal. In order to better understand the north-south precipitation contrasts, their interannual and decadal variations are studied in terms of how much they affect overall precipitation amounts and how they are related to large-scale climatic patterns. Spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and spatial moments (domain average, central latitude, and latitudinal spread) of zonally averaged precipitation anomalies along the westernmost parts of North America are analyzed, and each is correlated with global sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature series, on interannual (defined here as 3-7 yr) and decadal (>7 yr) timescales. The interannual band considered here corresponds to timescales that are particularly strong in tropical climate variations and thus is expected to contain much precipitation variability that is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation; the decadal scale is defined so as to capture the whole range of long-term climatic variations affecting western North America. Zonal EOFs of the interannual and decadal filtered versions of the zonal-precipitation series are remarkably similar. At both tim

Journal of Climate↗
USGS1998

Decadal variability of precipitation over Western North America

Decadal (>7- yr period) variations of precipitation over western North America account for 20%-50% of the variance of annual precipitation. Spatially, the decadal variability is broken into several regional [O(1000 km)] components. These decadal variations are contributed by fluctuations in precipitation from seasons of the year that vary from region to region and that are not necessarily concentrated in the wettest season(s) alone. The precipitation variations are linked to various decadal atmospheric circulation and SST anomaly patterns where scales range from regional to global scales and that emphasize tropical or extratropical connections, depending upon which precipitation region is considered. Further, wet or dry decades are associated with changes in frequency of at least a few short-period circulation 'modes' such as the Pacific-North American pattern. Precipitation fluctuations over the southwestern United States and the Saskatchewan region of western Canada are associated with extensive shifts of sea level pressure and SST anomalies, suggesting that they are components of low-frequency precipitation variability from global-scale climate proceses. Consistent with the global scale of its pressure and SST connection, the Southwest decadal precipitation is aligned with opposing precipitation fluctuations in northern Africa.Decadal (>7-yr period) variations of precipitation over western North America account for 20%-50% of the variance of annual precipitation. Spatially, the decadal variability is broken into several regional [O(1000 km)] components. These decadal variations are contributed by fluctuations in precipitation from seasons of the year that vary from region to region and that are not necessarily concentrated in the wettest season(s) alone. The precipitation variations are linked to various decadal atmospheric circulation and SST anomaly patterns where scales range from regional to global scales and that emphasize tropical or extratropical connections, depending upon which precipitation region is considered. Further, wet or dry decades are associated with changes in frequency of at least a few short-period circulation `modes' such as the Pacific-North American pattern. Precipitation fluctuations over the southwestern United States and the Saskatchewan region of western Canada are associated with extensive shifts of sea level pressure and SST anomalies, suggesting that they are components of low-frequency precipitation variability from global-scale climate processes. Consistent with the global scale of its pressure and SST connection, the Southwest decadal precipitation is aligned with opposing precipitation fluctuations in northern Africa.

Journal of Climate↗
USGS1997

The spring runoff pulse from the Sierra Nevada

A spring runoff pulse is identified in the Merced River record from the Sierra Nevada, that makes the transition from low streamflow conditions in winter to the high streamflow conditions in the later spring-early summer period. The timing of the pulse is delayed with greater seasonal accumulation of snow pack in the Yosemite region. Also, the runoff pulse is triggered by a regional weather fluctuation that establishes a warm high pressure ridge over the California region during the spring (mid-March to Mid-May) period. Since this ridge often blankets the entire western United States, it is found that a simultaneous pulse occurs over a broad collection of high-elevation streams in the region.

California↗
USGS1996

River salinity variations in response to discharge: Examples from Western United States during early 1900s

Major controls on river salinity (total dissolved solids) in the western United States are climate, geology, and human activity. Climate, in general, influences soil-river salinity via salt-balance variations. When climate becomes wetter, river discharge increases and soil-river salinity descreases; when climate becomes drier river discharge decreases and soil-river salinity increases. This study characterizes the river salinity response to discharge using statistical-dynamical methods. An exploratory analysis of river salinity, using early 1900s water quality surveys in the western United States, shows much river salinity variability is in response to storm and annual discharge. Presumably this is because river discharge is largely supported by surface flow.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1995

Sierra Nevada runoff into San Francisco Bay - Why has it come earlier recently?

By the time most of the Sierra Nevada snowpack has melted each summer, freshwater outflows from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta to San Francisco Bay are typically small, even after the wettest winters. These small delta outflows during the warm months (in comparison with the large flows of winter and spring) are overwhelmed by salty coastal waters, and the bay becomes more and more salty as summer progresses. Because longer lowflow seasons allow the bay to'become saltier, timing of the Sierra Nevada snowmelt and runoff, which are the source of the delta flows, has a profound influence on the salinity 0 the bay and, thus/ can affect its ecosystems (Peterson et al 1995).

Newsletter of the Interagency Ecological Program f↗