USGS Science⌕ Search

Geology topics

D.R. Cayan

Publications and source records attributed to D.R. Cayan.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2006

Warming and earlier spring increase Western U.S. forest wildfire activity

Western United States forest wildfire activity is widely thought to have increased in recent decades, yet neither the extent of recent changes nor the degree to which climate may be driving regional changes in wildfire has been systematically documented. Much of the public and scientific discussion of changes in western United States wildfire has focused instead on the effects of 19th- and 20th-century land-use history. We compiled a comprehensive database of large wildfires in western United States forests since 1970 and compared it with hydroclimatic and land-surface data. Here, we show that large wildfire activity increased suddenly and markedly in the mid-1980s, with higher large-wildfire frequency, longer wildfire durations, and longer wildfire seasons. The greatest increases occurred in mid-elevation, Northern Rockies forests, where land-use histories have relatively little effect on fire risks and are strongly associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and an earlier spring snowmelt.

Science↗
USGS2005

Snow-fed streamflow timing at different basin scales: Case study of the Tuolumne River above Hetch Hetchy, Yosemite, California

Diurnal cycles in snow‐fed streams provide a useful technique for measuring the time it takes water to travel from the top of the snowpack, where snowmelt typically peaks in the afternoon, to the river gauge, where the daily maximum flows may arrive many hours later. Hourly stage measurements in nested subbasins (6‐775 km 2 ) of the Tuolumne River in Yosemite National Park illustrate travel time delays at different basin scales during the spring 2002 and 2003 melt seasons. Travel times increase with longer percolation times through deeper snowpacks, increase with longer travel times over land and along longer stream channels, and increase with slower in‐stream flow velocities. In basins smaller than 30 km 2 , travel times through the snowpack dominate streamflow timing. In particular, daily peak flows shift to earlier in the day as snowpacks thin and mean discharges increase. In basins larger than 200 km 2 , snowpack heterogeneity causes the hour of peak flow to be highly consistent, with little or no variation as the snowpack thins. Basins with areas in between 30 and 200 km 2 exhibit different sequences of diurnal streamflow timing in different years, sometimes acting like small basins and other times like large basins. From the start of the melt season until the day of peak snowmelt discharge, increasing travel distances in channels as the snow line retreats to higher elevations do not cause long enough travel delays to offset the observed decrease in mean travel times through the snowpack. A model that couples porous medium flow through thinning snowpacks with free surface flow in stream channels can reproduce the observed patterns, provided that the model incorporates snowpack heterogeneity.

California↗
USGS2005

Changes toward earlier streamflow timing across western North America

The highly variable timing of streamflow in snowmelt-dominated basins across western North America is an important consequence, and indicator, of climate fluctuations. Changes in the timing of snowmelt-derived streamflow from 1948 to 2002 were investigated in a network of 302 western North America gauges by examining the center of mass for flow, spring pulse onset dates, and seasonal fractional flows through trend and principal component analyses. Statistical analysis of the streamflow timing measures with Pacific climate indicators identified local and key large-scale processes that govern the regionally coherent parts of the changes and their relative importance. Widespread and regionally coherent trends toward earlier onsets of springtime snowmelt and streamflow have taken place across most of western North America, affecting an area that is much larger than previously recognized. These timing changes have resulted in increasing fractions of annual flow occurring earlier in the water year by 1–4 weeks. The immediate (or proximal) forcings for the spatially coherent parts of the year-to-year fluctuations and longer-term trends of streamflow timing have been higher winter and spring temperatures. Although these temperature changes are partly controlled by the decadal-scale Pacific climate mode [Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)], a separate and significant part of the variance is associated with a springtime warming trend that spans the PDO phases.

Journal of Climate↗
USGS2005

Wave spectral energy variability in the northeast Pacific

The dominant characteristics of wave energy variability in the eastern North Pacific are described from NOAA National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoy data collected from 1981 to 2003. Ten buoys at distributed locations were selected for comparison based on record duration and data continuity. Long‐period (LP) [ T > 12] s, intermediate‐period [6 ≤ T ≤ 12] s, and short‐period [ T < 6] s wave spectral energy components are considered separately. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses of monthly wave energy anomalies reveal that all three wave energy components exhibit similar patterns of spatial variability. The dominant mode represents coherent heightened (or diminished) wave energy along the West Coast from Alaska to southern California, as indicated by composites of the 700 hPa height field. The second EOF mode reveals a distinct El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐associated spatial distribution of wave energy, which occurs when the North Pacific storm track is extended unusually far south or has receded to the north. Monthly means and principal components (PCs) of wave energy levels indicate that the 1997–1998 El Niño winter had the highest basin‐wide wave energy within this record, substantially higher than the 1982–1983 El Niño. An increasing trend in the dominant PC of LP wave energy suggests that storminess has increased in the northeast Pacific since 1980. This trend is emphasized at central eastern North Pacific locations. Patterns of storminess variability are consistent with increasing activity in the central North Pacific as well as the tendency for more extreme waves in the south during El Niño episodes and in the north during La Niña.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2005

Sources of variability of evapotranspiration in California

The variability (1990–2002) of potential evapotranspiration estimates (ETo) and related meteorological variables from a set of stations from the California Irrigation Management System (CIMIS) is studied. Data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and from the Department of Energy from 1950 to 2001 were used to validate the results. The objective is to determine the characteristics of climatological ETo and to identify factors controlling its variability (including associated atmospheric circulations). Daily ETo anomalies are strongly correlated with net radiation ( R n ) anomalies, relative humidity (RH), and cloud cover, and less with average daily temperature ( T avg ). The highest intraseasonal variability of ETo daily anomalies occurs during the spring, mainly caused by anomalies below the high ETo seasonal values during cloudy days. A characteristic circulation pattern is associated with anomalies of ETo and its driving meteorological inputs, R n , RH, and T avg , at daily to seasonal time scales. This circulation pattern is dominated by 700-hPa geopotential height ( Z 700 ) anomalies over a region off the west coast of North America, approximately between 32° and 44° latitude, referred to as the California Pressure Anomaly (CPA). High cloudiness and lower than normal ETo are associated with the low-height (pressure) phase of the CPA pattern. Higher than normal ETo anomalies are associated with clear skies maintained through anomalously high Z 700 anomalies offshore of the North American coast. Spring CPA, cloudiness, maximum temperature ( T max ), pan evaporation ( E pan ), and ETo conditions have not trended significantly or consistently during the second half of the twentieth century in California. Because it is not known how cloud cover and humidity will respond to climate change, the response of ETo in California to increased greenhouse-gas concentrations is essentially unknown; however, to retain the levels of ETo in the current climate, a decline of R n by about 6% would be required to compensate for a warming of +3°C.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗
USGS2005

The seasonal cycle of diabatic heat storage in the Pacific Ocean

This study quantifies uncertainties in closing the seasonal cycle of diabatic heat storage (DHS) over the Pacific Ocean from 20??S to 60??N through the synthesis of World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) reanalysis products from 1993 to 1999. These products are DHS from Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO); near-surface geostrophic and Ekman currents from Earth and Space Research (ESR); and air-sea heat fluxes from Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and European Center for Mid-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). With these products, we compute residual heat budget components by differencing long-term monthly means from the long-term annual mean. This allows the seasonal cycle of the DHS tendency to be modeled. Everywhere latent heat flux residuals dominate sensible heat flux residuals, shortwave heat flux residuals dominate longwave heat flux residuals, and residual Ekman heat advection dominates residual geostrophic heat advection, with residual dissipation significant only in the Kuroshio-Oyashio current extension. The root-mean-square (RMS) of the differences between observed and model residual DHS tendencies (averaged over 10??latitude-by-20??longitude boxes) is <20 W m-2 in the interior ocean and <100 W m-2 in the Kuroshio-Oyashio current extension. This reveals that the residual DHS tendency is driven everywhere by some mix of residual latent heat flux, shortwave heat flux, and Ekman heat advection. Suppressing bias errors in residual air-sea turbulent heat fluxes and Ekman heat advection through minimization of the RMS differences reduces the latter to <10 W m-2 over the interior ocean and <25 W m -2 in the Kuroshio-Oyashio current extension. This reveals air-sea temperature and specific humidity differences from in situ surface marine weather observations to be a principal source of bias error, overestimated over most of ocean but underestimated near the Intertropical Convergence Zone. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Progress in Oceanography↗
USGS2004

Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099

Hydrologic responses of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are assessed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-yr period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th century until about 1975 when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st century with an attendant +2.5 °C warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible despite realistic simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2025. In contrast to these changes that are mostly associated with streamflow timing, long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. A control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995 yields climate and streamflow timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. The availability of continuous climate-change projection outputs and careful design of initial conditions and control experiments, like those utilized here, promise to improve the quality and usability of future climate-change impact assessments.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2004

Elevational dependence of projected hydrologic changes in the San Francisco Estuary and watershed

California's primary hydrologic system, the San Francisco Estuary and its upstream watershed, is vulnerable to the regional hydrologic consequences of projected global climate change. Previous work has shown that a projected warming would result in a reduction of snowpack storage leading to higher winter and lower spring-summer streamflows and increased spring-summer salinities in the estuary. The present work shows that these hydrologic changes exhibit a strong dependence on elevation, with the greatest loss of snowpack volume in the 1300–2700 m elevation range. Exploiting hydrologic and estuarine modeling capabilities to trace water as it moves through the system reveals that the shift of water in mid-elevations of the Sacramento river basin from snowmelt to rainfall runoff is the dominant cause of projected changes in estuarine inflows and salinity. Additionally, although spring-summer losses of estuarine inflows are balanced by winter gains, the losses have a stronger influence on salinity since longer spring-summer residence times allow the inflow changes to accumulate in the estuary. The changes in inflows sourced in the Sacramento River basin in approximately the 1300–2200 m elevation range thereby lead to a net increase in estuarine salinity under the projected warming. Such changes would impact ecosystems throughout the watershed and threaten to contaminate much of California's freshwater supply.

San Francisco Estuary↗
USGS2004

Spring onset in the Sierra Nevada: When is snowmelt independent of elevation?

Short-term climate and weather systems can have a strong influence on mountain snowmelt, sometimes overwhelming the effects of elevation and aspect. Although most years exhibit a spring onset that starts first at lowest and moves to highest elevations, in spring 2002, flow in a variety of streams within the Tuolumne and Merced River basins of the southern Sierra Nevada all rose synchronously on 29 March. Flow in streams draining small high-altitude glacial subcatchments rose at the same time as that draining much larger basins gauged at lower altitudes, and streams from north- and south-facing cirques rose and fell together. Historical analysis demonstrates that 2002 was one among only 8 yr with such synchronous flow onsets during the past 87 yr, recognized by having simultaneous onsets of snowmelt at over 70% of snow pillow sites, having discharge in over 70% of monitored streams increase simultaneously, and having temperatures increase over 12°C within a 5-day period. Synchronous springs tend to begin with a low pressure trough over California during late winter, followed by the onset of a strong ridge and unusually warm temperatures. Synchronous springs are characterized by warmer than average winters and cooler than average March temperatures in California. In the most elevation-dependent, nonsynchronous years, periods of little or no storm activity, with warmer than average March temperatures, precede the onset of spring snowmelt, allowing elevation and aspect to influence snowmelt as spring arrives gradually.

Sierra Nevada↗
USGS2003

ENSO and winter storms in California

The frequency and intensity of North Pacific winter storms that penetrate the California coast drives the winds, sea level, precipitation and streamflow that are crucial influences on coastal processes. There is considerable variability of these storm characteristics, in large part owing to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO} phenomenon. There is a great contrast of the storm characteristics during the El Nino phase vs. the La Nina phase, with the largest scale, southerly extensive winter storms generated during El Nino.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2003

Sources of global warming of the upper ocean on decadal period scales

Recent studies find global climate variability in the upper ocean and lower atmosphere during the twentieth century dominated by quasi-biennial, interannual, quasi-decadal and interdecadal signals. The quasi-decadal signal in upper ocean temperature undergoes global warming/cooling of ???0.1??C, similar to that occuring with the interannual signal (i.e., El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation), both signals dominated by global warming/cooling in the tropics. From the National Centers for Environmental Prediction troposphere reanalysis and Scripps Institution of Oceanography upper ocean temperature reanalysis we examine the quasi-decadal global tropical diabetic heat storage (DHS) budget from 1975 to 2000. We find the anomalous DHS warming tendency of 0.3-0.9 W m-2 driven principally by a downward global tropical latent-plus-sensible heat flux anomaly into the ocean, overwhelming the tendency by weaker upward shortwave-minus-longwave heat flux anomaly to drive an anomalous DHS cooling tendency. During the peak quasi-decadal warming the estimated dissipation of DHS anomaly of 0.2-0.5 W m-2 into the deep ocean and a similar loss to the overlying atmosphere through air-sea heat flux anomaly are balanced by a decrease in the net poleward Ekman heat advection out of the tropics of 0.4-0.7 W m-2. This scenario is nearly the opposite of that accounting for global tropical warming during the El Nin??o. These diagnostics confirm that even though the global quasi-decadal signal is phase-locked to the 11-year signal in the Sun's surface radiative forcing of ???0.1 W m-2, the anomalous global tropical DHS tendency cannot be driven by it directly.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2003

Meteorology and hydrology in Yosemite National Park: A sensor network application

Over half of California's water supply comes from high elevations in the snowmelt-dominated Sierra Nevada. Natural climate fluctuations, global warming, and the growing needs of water consumers demand intelligent management of this water resource. This requires a comprehensive monitoring system across and within the Sierra Nevada. Unfortunately, because of severe terrain and limited access, few measurements exist. Thus, meteorological and hydrologic processes are not well understood at high altitudes. However, new sensor and wireless communication technologies are beginning to provide sensor packages designed for low maintenance operation, low power consumption and unobtrusive footprints. A prototype network of meteorological and hydrological sensors has been deployed in Yosemite National Park, traversing elevation zones from 1,200 to 3,700 m. Communication techniques must be tailored to suit each location, resulting in a hybrid network of radio, cell-phone, land-line, and satellite transmissions. Results are showing how, in some years, snowmelt may occur quite uniformly over the Sierra, while in others it varies with elevation. ?? Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2003.

Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subse↗
USGS2002

Seasonal and spatial patterns in diurnal cycles in streamflow in the western United States

The diurnal cycle in streamflow constitutes a significant part of the variability in many rivers in the western United States and can be used to understand some of the dominant processes affecting the water balance of a given river basin. Rivers in which water is added diurnally, as in snowmelt, and rivers in which water is removed diurnally, as in evapotranspiration and infiltration, exhibit substantial differences in the timing, relative magnitude, and shape of their diurnal flow variations. Snowmelt-dominated rivers achieve their highest sustained flow and largest diurnal fluctuations during the spring melt season. These fluctuations are characterized by sharp rises and gradual declines in discharge each day. In large snowmelt-dominated basins, at the end of the melt season, the hour of maximum discharge shifts to later in the day as the snow line retreats to higher elevations. Many evapotranspiration/infiltration-dominated rivers in the western states achieve their highest sustained flows during the winter rainy season but exhibit their strongest diurnal cycles during summer months, when discharge is low, and the diurnal fluctuations compose a large percentage of the total flow. In contrast to snowmelt-dominated rivers, the maximum discharge in evapotranspiration/infiltration-dominated rivers occurs consistently in the morning throughout the summer. In these rivers, diurnal changes are characterized by a gradual rise and sharp decline each day.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗
USGS2002

Long lead statistical forecasts of area burned in western U.S. wildfires by ecosystem province

A statistical forecast methodology exploits large-scale patterns in monthly U.S. Climatological Division Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values over a wide region and several seasons to predict area burned in western U.S. wildfires by ecosystem province a season in advance. The forecast model, which is based on canonical correlations, indicates that a few characteristic patterns determine predicted wildfire season area burned. Strong negative associations between anomalous soil moisture (inferred from PDSI) immediately prior to the fire season and area burned dominate in most higher elevation forested provinces, while strong positive associations between anomalous soil moisture a year prior to the fire season and area burned dominate in desert and shrub and grassland provinces. In much of the western U.S., above- and below-normal fire season forecasts were successful 57% of the time or better, as compared with a 33% skill for a random guess, and with a low probability of being surprised by a fire season at the opposite extreme of that forecast.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2001

Changes in the Onset of Spring in the Western United States

Fluctuations in spring climate in the western United States over the last 4-5 decades are described by examining changes in the blooming of plants and the timing of snowmelt-runoff pulses. The two measures of spring's onset that are employed are the timing of first bloom of lilac and honeysuckle bushes from a long-term cooperative phonological network, and the timing of the first major pulse of snowmelt recorded from high-elevation streams. Both measures contain year-to-year fluctuations, with typical year-to-year fluctuations at a given site of one to three weeks. These fluctuations are spatially coherent, forming regional patterns that cover most of the west. Fluctuations in lilac first bloom dates are highly correlated to those of honeysuckle, and both are significantly correlated with those of the spring snowmelt pulse. Each of these measures, then, probably respond to a common mechanism. Various analyses indicate that anomalous temperature exerts the greatest influence upon both interannual and secular changes in the onset of spring in these networks. Earlier spring onsets since the late 1970s are a remarkable feature of the records, and reflect the unusual spell of warmer-than-normal springs in western North America during this period. The warm episodes are clearly related to larger-scale atmospheric conditions across North America and the North Pacific, but whether this is predominantly an expression of natural variability or also a symptom of global warming is not certain.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗
USGS2000

Predicting and downscaling ENSO impacts on intraseasonal precipitation statistics in California: The 1997/98 event

Three long-range forecasting methods have been evaluated for prediction and downscaling of seasonal and intraseasonal precipitation statistics in California. Full-statistical, hybrid-dynamical–statistical and full-dynamical approaches have been used to forecast El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–related total precipitation, daily precipitation frequency, and average intensity anomalies during the January–March season. For El Niño winters, the hybrid approach emerges as the best performer, while La Niña forecasting skill is poor. The full-statistical forecasting method features reasonable forecasting skill for both La Niña and El Niño winters. The performance of the full-dynamical approach could not be evaluated as rigorously as that of the other two forecasting schemes. Although the full-dynamical forecasting approach is expected to outperform simpler forecasting schemes in the long run, evidence is presented to conclude that, at present, the full-dynamical forecasting approach is the least viable of the three, at least in California. The authors suggest that operational forecasting of any intraseasonal temperature, precipitation, or streamflow statistic derivable from the available records is possible now for ENSO-extreme years.

California↗
USGS2000

A hybrid orographic plus statistical model for downscaling daily precipitation in northern California

A hybrid (physical–statistical) scheme is developed to resolve the finescale distribution of daily precipitation over complex terrain. The scheme generates precipitation by combining information from the upper-air conditions and from sparsely distributed station measurements; thus, it proceeds in two steps. First, an initial estimate of the precipitation is made using a simplified orographic precipitation model. It is a steady-state, multilayer, and two-dimensional model following the concepts of Rhea. The model is driven by the 2.5° × 2.5° gridded National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration–National Centers for Environmental Prediction upper-air profiles, and its parameters are tuned using the observed precipitation structure of the region. Precipitation is generated assuming a forced lifting of the air parcels as they cross the mountain barrier following a straight trajectory. Second, the precipitation is adjusted using errors between derived precipitation and observations from nearby sites. The study area covers the northern half of California, including coastal mountains, central valley, and the Sierra Nevada. The model is run for a 5-km rendition of terrain for days of January–March over the period of 1988–95. A jackknife analysis demonstrates the validity of the approach. The spatial and temporal distributions of the simulated precipitation field agree well with the observed precipitation. Further, a mapping of model performance indices (correlation coefficients, model bias, root-mean-square error, and threat scores) from an array of stations from the region indicates that the model performs satisfactorily in resolving daily precipitation at 5-km resolution.

California↗