Geology topics

Catherine S. Jarnevich

Publications and source records attributed to Catherine S. Jarnevich.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Running a network on a shoestring: the Global Invasive Species Information Network

The Global Invasive Species Information Network (GISIN) was conceptualized in 2004 to aggregate and disseminate invasive species data in a standardized way. A decade later the GISIN community has implemented a data portal and three of six GISIN data aggregation models in the GISIN data exchange Protocol, including invasive species status information, resource URLs, and occurrence data. The portal is based on a protocol developed by representatives from 15 countries and 27 organizations of the global invasive species information management community. The GISIN has 19 data providers sharing 34,343 species status records, 1,693,073 occurrences, and 15,601 resource URLs. While the GISIN's goal is to be global, much of its data and funding are provided by the United States. Several initiatives use the GISIN as their information backbone, such as the Great Lakes Early Detection Network (GLEDN) and the North American Invasive Species Network (NAISN). Here we share several success stories and organizational challenges that remain.

Management of Biological Invasions↗

USGS2015

Simulating long-term effectiveness and efficiency of management scenarios for an invasive grass

Resource managers are often faced with trade-offs in allocating limited resources to manage plant invasions. These decisions must often be made with uncertainty about the location of infestations, their rate of spread and effectiveness of management actions. Landscape level simulation tools such as state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) can be used to evaluate the potential long term consequences of alternative management strategies and help identify those strategies that make efficient use of resources. We analyzed alternative management scenarios for African buffelgrass ( Pennisetum ciliare syn. Cenchrus ciliaris ) at Ironwood Forest National Monument, Arizona using a spatially explicit STSM implemented in the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses (TELSA). Buffelgrass is an invasive grass that is spreading rapidly in the Sonoran Desert, affecting multiple habitats and jurisdictions. This invasion is creating a novel fire risk and transforming natural ecosystems. The model used in this application incorporates buffelgrass dispersal and establishment and management actions and effectiveness including inventory, treatment and post-treatment maintenance. We simulated 11 alternative scenarios developed in consultation with buffelgrass managers and other stakeholders. The scenarios vary according to the total budget allocated for management and the allocation of that budget between different kinds of management actions. Scenario results suggest that to achieve an actual reduction and stabilization of buffelgrass populations, management unconstrained by fiscal restrictions and across all jurisdictions and private lands is required; without broad and aggressive management, buffelgrass populations are expected to increase over time. However, results also suggest that large upfront investments can achieve control results that require relatively minimal spending in the future. Investing the necessary funds upfront to control the invasion results in the most efficient use of resources to achieve lowest invaded acreage in the long-term.

Arizona↗

USGS2015

Modeling the present and future geographic distribution of the Lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum (Ixodida: Ixodidae ), in the continental United States

The Lone star tick ( Amblyomma americanum L.) is the primary vector for pathogens of significant public health importance in North America, yet relatively little is known about its current and potential future distribution. Building on a published summary of tick collection records, we used an ensemble modeling approach to predict the present-day and future distribution of climatically suitable habitat for establishment of the Lone star tick within the continental United States. Of the nine climatic predictor variables included in our five present-day models, average vapor pressure in July was by far the most important determinant of suitable habitat. The present-day ensemble model predicted an essentially contiguous distribution of suitable habitat extending to the Atlantic coast east of the 100th western meridian and south of the 40th northern parallel, but excluding a high elevation region associated with the Appalachian Mountains. Future ensemble predictions for 2061–2080 forecasted a stable western range limit, northward expansion of suitable habitat into the Upper Midwest and western Pennsylvania, and range contraction along portions of the Gulf coast and the lower Mississippi river valley. These findings are informative for raising awareness of A. americanum -transmitted pathogens in areas where the Lone Star tick has recently or may become established.

American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene↗

USGS2014

Mapping current and potential distribution of non-native Prosopis juliflora in the Afar region of Ethiopia

We used correlative models with species occurrence points, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices, and topo-climatic predictors to map the current distribution and potential habitat of invasive Prosopis juliflora in Afar, Ethiopia. Time-series of MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Indices (EVI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices (NDVI) with 250 m2 spatial resolution were selected as remote sensing predictors for mapping distributions, while WorldClim bioclimatic products and generated topographic variables from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission product (SRTM) were used to predict potential infestations. We ran Maxent models using non-correlated variables and the 143 species-occurrence points. Maxent generated probability surfaces were converted into binary maps using the 10-percentile logistic threshold values. Performances of models were evaluated using area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Our results indicate that the extent of P. juliflora invasion is approximately 3,605 km 2 in the Afar region (AUC = 0.94), while the potential habitat for future infestations is 5,024 km 2 (AUC = 0.95). Our analyses demonstrate that time-series of MODIS vegetation indices and species occurrence points can be used with Maxent modeling software to map the current distribution of P. juliflora, while topo-climatic variables are good predictors of potential habitat in Ethiopia. Our results can quantify current and future infestations, and inform management and policy decisions for containing P. juliflora . Our methods can also be replicated for managing invasive species in other East African countries.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2014

From hybrid swarms to swarms of hybrids

Science has shown that the introgression or hybridization of modern humans ( Homo sapiens ) with Neanderthals up to 40,000 YBP may have led to the swarm of modern humans on earth. However, there is little doubt that modern trade and transportation in support of the humans has continued to introduce additional species, genotypes, and hybrids to every country on the globe. We assessed the utility of species distributions modeling of genotypes to assess the risk of current and future invaders. We evaluated 93 locations of the genus Tamarix for which genetic data were available. Maxent models of habitat suitability showed that the hybrid, T. ramosissima x T. chinensis , was slightly greater than the parent taxa (AUCs > 0.83). General linear models of Africanized honey bees, a hybrid cross of Tanzanian Apis mellifera scutellata and a variety of European honey bee including A. m. ligustica , showed that the Africanized bees (AUC = 0.81) may be displacing European honey bees (AUC > 0.76) over large areas of the southwestern U.S. More important, Maxent modeling of sub-populations (A1 and A26 mitotypes based on mDNA) could be accurately modeled (AUC > 0.9), and they responded differently to environmental drivers. This suggests that rapid evolutionary change may be underway in the Africanized bees, allowing the bees to spread into new areas and extending their total range. Protecting native species and ecosystems may benefit from risk maps of harmful invasive species, hybrids, and genotypes.

Environment and Ecology Research↗

USGS2013

Regional distribution models with lack of proximate predictors: Africanized honeybees expanding north

Species distribution models have often been hampered by poor local species data, reliance on coarse-scale climate predictors and the assumption that species–environment relationships, even with non-proximate predictors, are consistent across geographical space. Yet locally accurate maps of invasive species, such as the Africanized honeybee (AHB) in North America, are needed to support conservation efforts. Current AHB range maps are relatively coarse and are inconsistent with observed data. Our aim was to improve distribution maps using more proximate predictors (phenology) and using regional models rather than one across the entire range of interest to explore potential differences in drivers.

Diversity and Distributions↗

USGS2013

The Hyper-Envelope Modeling Interface (HEMI): A Novel Approach Illustrated Through Predicting Tamarisk ( Tamarix spp.) Habitat in the Western USA

Habitat suitability maps are commonly created by modeling a species’ environmental niche from occurrences and environmental characteristics. Here, we introduce the hyper-envelope modeling interface (HEMI), providing a new method for creating habitat suitability models using Bezier surfaces to model a species niche in environmental space. HEMI allows modeled surfaces to be visualized and edited in environmental space based on expert knowledge and does not require absence points for model development. The modeled surfaces require relatively few parameters compared to similar modeling approaches and may produce models that better match ecological niche theory. As a case study, we modeled the invasive species tamarisk ( Tamarix spp.) in the western USA. We compare results from HEMI with those from existing similar modeling approaches (including BioClim, BioMapper, and Maxent). We used synthetic surfaces to create visualizations of the various models in environmental space and used modified area under the curve (AUC) statistic and akaike information criterion (AIC) as measures of model performance. We show that HEMI produced slightly better AUC values, except for Maxent and better AIC values overall. HEMI created a model with only ten parameters while Maxent produced a model with over 100 and BioClim used only eight. Additionally, HEMI allowed visualization and editing of the model in environmental space to develop alternative potential habitat scenarios. The use of Bezier surfaces can provide simple models that match our expectations of biological niche models and, at least in some cases, out-perform more complex approaches.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2013

VisTrails SAHM: visualization and workflow management for species habitat modeling

The Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) has been created to both expedite habitat modeling and help maintain a record of the various input data, pre- and post-processing steps and modeling options incorporated in the construction of a species distribution model through the established workflow management and visualization VisTrails software. This paper provides an overview of the VisTrails:SAHM software including a link to the open source code, a table detailing the current SAHM modules, and a simple example modeling an invasive weed species in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA.

Ecography: Pattern and Diversity in Ecology↗

USGS2013

Using habitat suitability models to target invasive plant species surveys

Managers need new tools for detecting the movement and spread of nonnative, invasive species. Habitat suitability models are a popular tool for mapping the potential distribution of current invaders, but the ability of these models to prioritize monitoring efforts has not been tested in the field. We tested the utility of an iterative sampling design (i.e., models based on field observations used to guide subsequent field data collection to improve the model), hypothesizing that model performance would increase when new data were gathered from targeted sampling using criteria based on the initial model results. We also tested the ability of habitat suitability models to predict the spread of invasive species, hypothesizing that models would accurately predict occurrences in the field, and that the use of targeted sampling would detect more species with less sampling effort than a nontargeted approach. We tested these hypotheses on two species at the state scale ( Centaurea stoebe and Pastinaca sativa ) in Wisconsin (USA), and one genus at the regional scale ( Tamarix ) in the western United States. These initial data were merged with environmental data at 30-m 2 resolution for Wisconsin and 1-km 2 resolution for the western United States to produce our first iteration models. We stratified these initial models to target field sampling and compared our models and success at detecting our species of interest to other surveys being conducted during the same field season (i.e., nontargeted sampling). Although more data did not always improve our models based on correct classification rate (CCR), sensitivity, specificity, kappa, or area under the curve (AUC), our models generated from targeted sampling data always performed better than models generated from nontargeted data. For Wisconsin species, the model described actual locations in the field fairly well (kappa = 0.51, 0.19, P < 0.01), and targeted sampling did detect more species than nontargeted sampling with less sampling effort (χ 2 ) = 47.42, P < 0.01). From these findings, we conclude that habitat suitability models can be highly useful tools for guiding invasive species monitoring, and we support the use of an iterative sampling design for guiding such efforts.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2011

Bounding species distribution models

Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS) might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for “clamping” model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART) and maximum entropy (Maxent) models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used.

Current Zoology↗

USGS2011

How will climate change affect the potential distribution of Eurasian tree sparrows Passer montanus in North America?

Habitat suitability models have been used to predict the present and future potential distribution of a variety of species. Eurasian tree sparrows Passer montanus , native to Eurasia, have established populations in other parts of the world. In North America, their current distribution is limited to a relatively small region around its original introduction to St. Louis, Missouri. We combined data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility with current and future climate data to create habitat suitability models using Maxent for this species. Under projected climate change scenarios, our models show that the distribution and range of the Eurasian tree sparrow could increase as far as the Pacific Northwest and Newfoundland. This is potentially important information for prioritizing the management and control of this non-native species.

Current Zoology↗

USGS2011

Diet and conservation implications of an invasive chameleon, Chamaeleo jacksonii (Squamata: Chamaeleonidae) in Hawaii

We summarize information on current distribution of the invasive lizard Chamaeleo jacksonii and predict its potential distribution in the Hawaiian Islands. Potential distribution maps are based on climate models developed from known localities in its native range and its Hawaiian range. We also present results of analysis of stomach contents of a sample of 34 chameleons collected from native, predominantly dryland, forest on Maui. These data are the first summarizing prey range of this non-native species in an invaded native-forest setting. Potential distribution models predict that the species can occur throughout most of Hawaii from sea level to >2,100 m elevation. Important features of this data set are that approximately one-third of the diet of these lizards is native insects, and the lizards are consuming large numbers of arthropods each day. Prey sizes span virtually the entire gamut of native Hawaiian arthropod diversity, thereby placing a large number of native species at risk of predation. Our dietary results contrast with expectations for most iguanian lizards and support suggestions that chameleons comprise a third distinct foraging-mode category among saurians. The combination of expanding distribution, large potential range size, broad diet, high predation rates, and high densities of these chameleons imply that they may well become a serious threat to some of the Hawaiian fauna.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2011

Federated or cached searches: providing expected performance from multiple invasive species databases

Invasive species are a universal global problem, but the information to identify them, manage them, and prevent invasions is stored around the globe in a variety of formats. The Global Invasive Species Information Network is a consortium of organizations working toward providing seamless access to these disparate databases via the Internet. A distributed network of databases can be created using the Internet and a standard web service protocol. There are two options to provide this integration. First, federated searches are being proposed to allow users to search “deep” web documents such as databases for invasive species. A second method is to create a cache of data from the databases for searching. We compare these two methods, and show that federated searches will not provide the performance and flexibility required from users and a central cache of the datum are required to improve performance.

Frontiers of Earth Science↗

USGS2011

Balancing energy development and conservation: A method utilizing species distribution models

Alternative energy development is increasing, potentially leading to negative impacts on wildlife populations already stressed by other factors. Resource managers require a scientifically based methodology to balance energy development and species conservation, so we investigated modeling habitat suitability using Maximum Entropy to develop maps that could be used with other information to help site energy developments. We selected one species of concern, the Lesser Prairie-Chicken (LPCH; Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) found on the southern Great Plains of North America, as our case study. LPCH populations have been declining and are potentially further impacted by energy development. We used LPCH lek locations in the state of Kansas along with several environmental and anthropogenic parameters to develop models that predict the probability of lek occurrence across the landscape. The models all performed well as indicated by the high test area under the curve (AUC) scores (all >0.9). The inclusion of anthropogenic parameters in models resulted in slightly better performance based on AUC values, indicating that anthropogenic features may impact LPCH lek habitat suitability. Given the positive model results, this methodology may provide additional guidance in designing future survey protocols, as well as siting of energy development in areas of marginal or unsuitable habitat for species of concern. This technique could help to standardize and quantify the impacts various developments have upon at-risk species.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2011

Distribution and abundance of saltcedar and Russian olive in the western United States

Over the past century, two introduced Eurasian trees, saltcedar (Tamarix spp.) and Russian olive (Elaeagnus angustifolia) have become wide spread on western United States of American (U.S.) rivers. This paper reviews the literature on the following five key areas related to their distribution and abundance in the western United States: (1) the history of introduction, planting, and spread of saltcedar and Russian olive; (2) their current distribution; (3) their current abundance; (4) factors controlling their current distribution and abundance; and (5) models that have been developed to predict their future distribution and abundance. Saltcedar and Russian olive are now the third and fourth most frequently occurring woody riparian plants and the second and fifth most abundant species (out of 42 native and non-native species) along rivers in the western United States. Currently there is not a precise estimate of the areas that these species occupy in the entire West. Climatic variables are important determinants of their distribution and abundance. For example, saltcedar is limited by its sensitivity to hard freezes, whereas Russian olive appears to have a chilling requirement for bud break and seed germination, and can presumably survive colder winter temperatures. Either species can be dominant, co-dominant or sub-dominant relative to native species on a given river system. A number of environmental factors such as water availability, soil salinity, degree of stream flow regulation, and fire frequency can influence the abundance of these species relative to native species. Numerous studies suggest that both species have spread on western rivers primarily through a replacement process, whereby stress-tolerant species have moved into expanded niches that are no longer suitable for mesic native pioneer species. Better maps of current distribution and rigorous monitoring of distributional changes though time can help to resolve differences in predictions of potential future spread. An adequate understanding does not yet exist of what fraction of western riparian zones is resistant to dominance by either of these species, what fraction is at risk and could benefit from intervention, and what fraction has been altered to the point that saltcedar or Russian olive are most likely to thrive.

Critical Reviews in Plant Science↗

USGS2011

Improving national-scale invasion maps: Tamarisk in the western United States

New invasions, better field data, and novel spatial-modeling techniques often drive the need to revisit previous maps and models of invasive species. Such is the case with the at least 10 species of Tamarix , which are invading riparian systems in the western United States and expanding their range throughout North America. In 2006, we developed a National Tamarisk Map by using a compilation of presence and absence locations with remotely sensed data and statistical modeling techniques. Since the publication of that work, our database of Tamarix distributions has grown significantly. Using the updated database of species occurrence, new predictor variables, and the maximum entropy (Maxent) model, we have revised our potential Tamarix distribution map for the western United States. Distance-to-water was the strongest predictor in the model (58.1%), while mean temperature of the warmest quarter was the second best predictor (18.4%). Model validation, averaged from 25 model iterations, indicated that our analysis had strong predictive performance (AUC = 0.93) and that the extent of Tamarix distributions is much greater than previously thought. The southwestern United States had the greatest suitable habitat, and this result differed from the 2006 model. Our work highlights the utility of iterative modeling for invasive species habitat modeling as new information becomes available.

Western United States↗

USGS2010

Bringing modeling to the masses: A web based system to predict potential species distributions

Predicting current and potential species distributions and abundance is critical for managing invasive species, preserving threatened and endangered species, and conserving native species and habitats. Accurate predictive models are needed at local, regional, and national scales to guide field surveys, improve monitoring, and set priorities for conservation and restoration. Modeling capabilities, however, are often limited by access to software and environmental data required for predictions. To address these needs, we built a comprehensive web-based system that: (1) maintains a large database of field data; (2) provides access to field data and a wealth of environmental data; (3) accesses values in rasters representing environmental characteristics; (4) runs statistical spatial models; and (5) creates maps that predict the potential species distribution. The system is available online at www.niiss.org, and provides web-based tools for stakeholders to create potential species distribution models and maps under current and future climate scenarios.

Future Internet↗

USGS2010

Challenges of predicting the potential distribution of a slow-spreading invader: a habitat suitability map for an invasive riparian tree

Understanding the potential spread of invasive species is essential for land managers to prevent their establishment and restore impacted habitat. Habitat suitability modeling provides a tool for researchers and managers to understand the potential extent of invasive species spread. Our goal was to use habitat suitability modeling to map potential habitat of the riparian plant invader, Russian olive ( Elaeagnus angustifolia ). Russian olive has invaded riparian habitat across North America and is continuing to expand its range. We compiled 11 disparate datasets for Russian olive presence locations (n = 1,051 points and 139 polygons) in the western US and used Maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling to develop two habitat suitability maps for Russian olive in the western United States: one with coarse-scale water data and one with fine-scale water data. Our models were able to accurately predict current suitable Russian olive habitat (Coarse model: training AUC = 0.938, test AUC = 0.907; Fine model: training AUC = 0.923, test AUC = 0.885). Distance to water was the most important predictor for Russian olive presence in our coarse-scale water model, but it was only the fifth most important variable in the fine-scale model, suggesting that when water bodies are considered on a fine scale, Russian olive does not necessarily rely on water. Our model predicted that Russian olive has suitable habitat further west from its current distribution, expanding into the west coast and central North America. Our methodology proves useful for identifying potential future areas of invasion. Model results may be influenced by locations of cultivated individuals and sampling bias. Further study is needed to examine the potential for Russian olive to invade beyond its current range. Habitat suitability modeling provides an essential tool for enhancing our understanding of invasive species spread.

Biological Invasions↗