Improving national-scale invasion maps: Tamarisk in the western United States

Abstract

New invasions, better field data, and novel spatial-modeling techniques often drive the need to revisit previous maps and models of invasive species. Such is the case with the at least 10 species of Tamarix , which are invading riparian systems in the western United States and expanding their range throughout North America. In 2006, we developed a National Tamarisk Map by using a compilation of presence and absence locations with remotely sensed data and statistical modeling techniques. Since the publication of that work, our database of Tamarix distributions has grown significantly. Using the updated database of species occurrence, new predictor variables, and the maximum entropy (Maxent) model, we have revised our potential Tamarix distribution map for the western United States. Distance-to-water was the strongest predictor in the model (58.1%), while mean temperature of the warmest quarter was the second best predictor (18.4%). Model validation, averaged from 25 model iterations, indicated that our analysis had strong predictive performance (AUC = 0.93) and that the extent of Tamarix distributions is much greater than previously thought. The southwestern United States had the greatest suitable habitat, and this result differed from the 2006 model. Our work highlights the utility of iterative modeling for invasive species habitat modeling as new information becomes available.