Geology topics

Benjamin J. Hatchett

Publications and source records attributed to Benjamin J. Hatchett.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

The severity of the 2014–2015 snow drought in the Oregon Cascades in a multicentury context

The western United States (US) is a hotspot for snow drought. The Oregon Cascade Range is highly sensitive to warming and as a result has experienced the largest mountain snowpack losses in the western US since the mid-20th century, including a record-breaking snow drought in 2014–2015 that culminated in a state of emergency. While Oregon Cascade snowpacks serve as the state's primary water supply, short instrumental records limit water managers' ability to fully constrain long-term natural snowpack variability prior to the influence of ongoing and projected anthropogenic climate change. Here, we use annually-resolved tree-ring records to develop the first multi-century reconstruction of Oregon Cascade April 1st Snow Water Equivalent (SWE). The model explains 58% of observed snowpack variability and extends back to 1688 AD, nearly quintupling the length of the existing snowpack record. Our reconstruction suggests that only one other multiyear event in the last three centuries was as severe as the 2014–2015 snow drought. The 2015 event alone was more severe than nearly any other year in over three centuries. Extreme low-to-high snowpack “whiplash” transitions are a consistent feature throughout the reconstructed record. Multi-decadal intervals of persistent below-the-mean peak SWE are prominent features of pre-instrumental snowpack variability, but are generally absent from the instrumental period and likely not fully accounted for in modern water management. In the face of projected snow drought intensification and warming, our findings motivate adaptive management strategies that address declining snowpack and increasingly variable precipitation regimes.

Oregon↗

USGS2023

Midwinter dry spells amplify post-fire snowpack decline

Increasing wildfire and declining snowpacks in mountain regions threaten water availability. We combine satellite-based fire detections with snow seasonality classifications to examine fire activity in California’s seasonal and ephemeral snow zones. We find a nearly tenfold increase in fire activity during 2020-2021 versus 2001-2019. Accumulation season broadband snow albedo declined 25-71% in two burned sites (2021 and 2022) as measured by in-situ data relative to un-burned conditions, with greater declines associated with increased burn severity. By enhancing snowpack susceptibility to melt, decreased snow albedo and canopy drove midwinter melt during a multi-week dry spell in 2022. Despite similar meteorological conditions in 2013 and 2022, which we link to persistent high pressure weather regimes, minimal melt occurred in 2013. Post-fire differences are confirmed with satellite measurements. With growing geographical overlap between wildfire and snow, our findings suggest California’s snowpack is increasingly vulnerable to the compounding effects of dry spells and wildfire.

California↗

USGS2023

Toward probabilistic post-fire debris-flow hazard decision support

Post-wildfire debris flows (PFDF) threaten life and property in western North America. They are triggered by short-duration, high-intensity rainfall. Following a wildfire, rainfall thresholds are developed that, if exceeded, indicate high likelihood of a PFDF. Existing weather forecast products allow forecasters to identify favorable atmospheric conditions for rainfall intensities that may exceed established thresholds at lead times needed for decision-making (e.g., ≥24 h). However, at these lead times, considerable uncertainty exists regarding rainfall intensity and whether the high-intensity rainfall will intersect the burn area. The approach of messaging on potential hazards given favorable conditions is generally effective in avoiding unanticipated PFDF impacts, but may lead to “messaging fatigue” if favorable triggering conditions are forecast numerous times, yet no PFDF occurs (i.e., false alarm). Forecasters and emergency managers need additional tools that increase their confidence regarding occurrence of short-duration, high-intensity rainfall as well as tools that tie rainfall forecasts to potential PFDF outcomes. We present a concept for probabilistic tools that evaluate PFDF hazards by coupling a high-resolution (1-km), large (100-member) ensemble 24-h precipitation forecast at 5-min resolution with PFDF likelihood and volume models. The observed 15-min maximum rainfall intensities are captured within the ensemble spread, though in highest ∼10% of members. We visualize the model output in several ways to demonstrate most likely and most extreme outcomes and to characterize uncertainty. Our experiment highlights the benefits and limitations of this approach, and provides an initial step toward further developing situational awareness and impact-based decision-support tools for forecasting PFDF hazards.

California↗

USGS2020

Linking mesoscale meteorology with extreme landscape response: Effects of narrow cold frontal rainbands (NCFR)

Landscapes evolve in response to prolonged and/or intense precipitation resulting from atmospheric processes at various spatial and temporal scales. Whereas synoptic (large‐scale) features (e.g., atmospheric rivers and hurricanes) govern regional‐scale hydrologic hazards such as widespread flooding, mesoscale features such as thunderstorms or squall lines are more likely to trigger localized geomorphic hazards such as landslides. Thus, to better understand relations between hydrometeorological drivers and landscape response, a knowledge of mesoscale meteorology and its impacts is needed. Here we investigate the extreme geomorphic response associated with one type of mesoscale meteorological feature, the narrow cold frontal rainband (NCFR). Resulting from low‐level convergence and shallow convection along a cold front, NCFRs are narrow bands of high‐intensity rainfall that occur in midlatitude areas of the world. Our study examines an NCFR impacting the Sierra Nevada foothills (California, USA) that initiated over 500 landslides, mobilized ~360,000 metric tons of sediment to the fluvial system (as much as 16 times the local annual sediment yield), and severely damaged local infrastructure and regional water transport facilities. Coupling geomorphological field investigations with meteorological analyses, we demonstrate that precipitation associated with the NCFR was both intense (maximum 15 min intensity of 70 mm/hr) and localized, resulting in a highly concentrated band of shallow landsliding. This meteorological phenomenon likely plays an important role in landscape evolution and hazard initiation. Other types of mesoscale meteorological features also occur globally and offer new avenues for understanding the effects of storms on landscapes.

California↗

USGS2020

Observations of an extreme atmospheric river storm with a diverse sensor network

Observational networks enhance real‐time situational awareness for emergency and water resource management during extreme weather events. We present examples of how a diverse, multitiered observational network in California provided insights into hydrometeorological processes and impacts during a 3‐day atmospheric river storm centered on 14 February 2019. This network, which has been developed over the past two decades, aims to improve understanding and mitigation of effects from extreme storms influencing water resources and natural hazards. We combine atmospheric reanalysis output and additional observations to show how the network allows: (1) the validation of record cool season precipitable water observations over southern California; (2) the identification of phenomena that produce natural hazards and present difficulties for short‐term weather forecast models, such as extreme precipitation amounts and snow level variability; (3) the use of soil moisture data to improve hydrologic model forecast skill in northern California's Russian River basin; and (4) the combination of meteorological data with seismic observations to identify when a large avalanche occurred on Mount Shasta. This case study highlights the value of investments in diverse observational assets and the importance of continued support and synthesis of these networks to characterize climatological context and advance understanding of processes modulating extreme weather.

California↗

USGS2019

North-south dipole in winter hydroclimate in the western United States during the last deglaciation

During the termination of the last glacial period the western U.S. experienced exceptionally wet conditions, driven by changes in location and strength of the mid-latitude winter storm track. The distribution of modern winter precipitation is frequently characterized by a north-south wet/dry dipole pattern, controlled by interaction of the storm track with ocean-atmosphere conditions over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Here we show that a dipole pattern of similar geographic extent persisted and switched sign during millennial-scale abrupt climate changes of the last deglaciation, based on a new lake level reconstruction for pluvial Lake Chewaucan (northwestern U.S.), and a compilation of regional paleoclimate records. This suggests the dipole pattern is robust, and one mode may be favored for centuries, thereby creating persistent contrasting wet/dry conditions across the western U.S. The TraCE-21k climate model simulation shows an equatorward enhancement of winter storm track activity in the northeastern Pacific, favoring wet conditions in southwestern U.S. during the second half of Heinrich Stadial 1 (16.1–14.6 ka) and consistent with paleoclimate evidence. During the Bølling/Allerød (14.6–12.8 ka), the northeastern Pacific storm track contracted poleward, consistent with wetter conditions concentrated poleward toward the northwest U.S.

Scientific Reports↗