Geology topics

Andrew J. L. Harris

Publications and source records attributed to Andrew J. L. Harris.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2022

Structured elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios: An exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island

Formalised elicitation of expert judgements has been used to help tackle several problematic societal issues, including volcanic crises and pandemic threats. We present an expert elicitation exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island, held remotely in April 2021. This involved 28 experts from nine countries who considered a hypothetical effusive eruption crisis involving a new vent opening in a high-risk area. The tele-elicitation presented several challenges, but is a promising and workable option for application to future volcanic crises. Our exercise considered an “uncommon” eruptive scenario with a vent outside the present caldera and within inhabited areas, and provided uncertainty ranges for several hazard-related questions for such a scenario (e.g. probability of eruption within a defined timeframe; elapsed time until lava flow reaches a critical location, and other hazard management issues). Our exercise indicated that such a scenario would probably present very different characteristics compared to recent eruptions, and that it is fundamental to include well-prepared expert elicitations in updated civil protection evacuation plans to improve disaster response procedures.

Volcanica↗

USGS2017

Integrating puffing and explosions in a general scheme for Strombolian-style activity

Strombolian eruptions are among the most common subaerial styles of explosive volcanism worldwide. Distinctive features of each volcano lead to a correspondingly wide range of variations of magnitude and erupted products, but most papers focus on a single type of event at a single volcano. Here, in order to emphasize the common features underlying this diversity of styles, we scrutinize a database from 35 different erupting vents, including 21 thermal infrared videos from Stromboli (Italy), Etna (Italy), Yasur (Vanuatu), and Batu Tara (Indonesia), from puffing, through rapid explosions to normal explosions, with variable ejection parameters and relative abundance of gas, ash, and bombs. Using field observations and high-speed thermal infrared videos processed by a new algorithm, we identify the distinguishing characteristics of each type of activity and how they may relate and interact. In particular, we record that ash-poor normal explosions may be preceded and followed by the onset or the increase of the puffing activity, while ash-rich explosions are emergent, i.e., with inflation of the free surface followed directly by emission of increasingly large gas pockets. Overall, we see that all Strombolian activities form a continuum arising from a common mechanism and are modulated by the combination of two well-established controls: (1) the length of the bursting gas pocket with respect to the vent diameter and (2) the presence and thickness of a high-viscosity layer in the uppermost part of the volcanic conduit.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2010

The thermal signature of volcanic eruptions on Io and Earth,

We investigate a spectrum-based technique to identify the style of active volcanic eruptions on Jupiter's moon Io. Thermal remote sensing of Io has had to rely primarily on low-spatial-resolution data, similar to low-spatial-resolution satellite data applied to detecting and charting the temporal evolution of terrestrial hot spots. These terrestrial analyses use data from sensors designed to monitor the weather and sea surface temperature. On Io, such low-spatial-resolution data are used to classify eruption styles (modes of emplacement) by means of several criteria related to the temporal evolution of the infrared spectrum associated with the eruptive activity at each hot spot, which we term “thermal signature.” We find that the ratio of the emission at 2 and 5 µm, and how this ratio changes with time, is often diagnostic of eruption style, even in low-spatial-resolution data. Tests using thermal data for terrestrial “ground truth” cases show that our classification system is valid on Earth. The results of our analysis can be used to aid in the design of future space-based instruments that can be used for volcano monitoring on Io, as well as Earth.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2007

Strombolian explosive styles and source conditions

Forward Looking Infrared Radiometer (FLIR) cameras offer a unique view of explosive volcanism by providing an image of calibrated temperatures. In this study, 344 eruptive events at Stromboli volcano, Italy, were imaged in 2001–2004 with a FLIR camera operating at up to 30 Hz. The FLIR was effective at revealing both ash plumes and coarse ballistic scoria, and a wide range of eruption styles was recorded. Eruptions at Stromboli can generally be classified into two groups: Type 1 eruptions, which are dominated by coarse ballistic particles, and Type 2 eruptions, which consist of an optically-thick, ash-rich plume, with (Type 2a) or without (Type 2b) large numbers of ballistic particles. Furthermore, Type 2a plumes exhibited gas thrust velocities (>15 m s −1 ) while Type 2b plumes were limited to buoyant velocities (<15 m s−1 ) above the crater rim. A given vent would normally maintain a particular gross eruption style (Type 1 vs. 2) for days to weeks, indicating stability of the uppermost conduit on these timescales. Velocities at the crater rim had a range of 3–101 m s−1 , with an overall mean value of 24 m s −1 . Mean crater rim velocities by eruption style were: Type 1= 34 m s −1 , Type 2a=31 m s −1 , Type 2b=7 m s −1 . Eruption durations had a range of 6–41 s, with a mean of 15 s, similar among eruption styles. The ash in Type 2 eruptions originates from either backfilled material (crater wall slumping or ejecta rollback) or rheological changes in the uppermost magma column. Type 2a and 2b behaviors are shown to be a function of the overpressure of the bursting slug. In general, our imaging data support a broadening of the current paradigm for strombolian behavior, incorporating an uppermost conduit that can be more variable than is commonly considered.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS2006

Downstream aggradation owing to lava dome extrusion and rainfall runoff at Volcán Santiaguito, Guatemala

Persistent lava extrusion at the Santiaguito dome complex (Guatemala) results in continuous lahar activity and river bed aggradation downstream of the volcano. We present a simple method that uses vegetation indices extracted from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data to map impacted zones. Application of this technique to a time series of 21 TM images acquired between 1987 and 2000 allow us to map, measure, and track temporal and spatial variations in the area of lahar impact and river aggradation. In the proximal zone of the fluvial system, these data show a positive correlation between extrusion rate at Santiaguito (E), aggradation area 12 months later (A prox ), and rainfall during the intervening 12 months (Rain12): A prox =3.92+0.50 E+0.31 ln(Rain12) (r 2 =0.79). This describes a situation in which an increase in sediment supply (extrusion rate) and/or a means to mobilize this sediment (rainfall) results in an increase in lahar activity (aggraded area). Across the medial zone, we find a positive correlation between extrusion rate and/or area of proximal aggradation and medial aggradation area ( A med ): A med =18.84-0.05 A prox - 6.15 Rain12 ( r 2 =0.85). Here the correlation between rainfall and aggradation area is negative. This describes a situation in which increased sediment supply results in an increase in lahar activity but, because it is the zone of transport, an increase in rainfall serves to increase the transport efficiency of rivers flowing through this zone. Thus, increased rainfall flushes the medial zone of sediment. These quantitative data allow us to empirically define the links between sediment supply and mobilization in this fluvial system and to derive predictive relationships that use rainfall and extrusion rates to estimate aggradation area 12 months hence.

Volcán Santiaguito↗