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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2009

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland–urban interface (WUI) increases wildfire risk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfire risk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwestern Wisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfire risk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfire risk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfire risk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2012

The hidden cost of wildfires: Economic valuation of health effects of wildfire smoke exposure in Southern California

There is a growing concern that human health impacts from exposure to wildfire smoke are ignored in estimates of monetized damages from wildfires. Current research highlights the need for better data collection and analysis of these impacts. Using unique primary data, this paper quantifies the economic cost of health effects from the largest wildfire in Los Angeles County's modern history. A cost of illness estimate is \$9.50 per exposed person per day. However, theory and empirical research consistently find that this measure largely underestimates the true economic cost of health effects from exposure to a pollutant in that it ignores the cost of defensive actions taken as well as disutility. For the first time, the defensive behavior method is applied to calculate the willingness to pay for a reduction in one wildfire smoke induced symptom day, which is estimated to be \$84.42 per exposed person per day.

California↗
USGS2022

Wildfire imagery reduces risk information-seeking among homeowners as property wildfire risk increases

Negative imagery of destruction may induce or inhibit action to reduce risks from climate-exacerbated hazards, such as wildfires. This has generated conflicting assumptions among experts who communicate with homeowners: half of surveyed wildfire practitioners perceive a lack of expert agreement about the effect of negative imagery (a burning house) on homeowner behavior, yet most believe negative imagery is more engaging. We tested whether this expectation matched homeowner response in the United States. In an online experiment, homeowners who viewed negative imagery reported more negative emotions but the same behavioral intentions compared to those who viewed status-quo landscape photos. In a pre-registered field experiment, homeowners who received a postcard showing negative imagery were equally likely, overall, to visit a wildfire risk webpage as those whose postcard showed a status quo photo. However, the negative imagery decreased webpage visits as homeowners’ wildfire risk increased. These results illustrate the importance of testing assumptions to encourage behavioral adaptation to climate change.

Communications Earth & Environment↗
USGS2003

Effects of desert wildfires on desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) and other small vertebrates

We report the results of standardized surveys to determine the effects of wildfires on desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) and their habitats in the northeastern Mojave Desert and northeastern Sonoran Desert. Portions of 6 burned areas (118 to 1,750 ha) were examined for signs of mortality of vertebrates. Direct effects of fire in desert habitats included animal mortality and loss of vegetation cover. A range of 0 to 7 tortoises was encountered during surveys, and live tortoises were found on all transects. In addition to desert tortoises, only small (<1 kg) mammals and reptiles (11 taxa) were found dead on the study areas. We hypothesize that indirect effects of fire on desert habitats might result in changes in the composition of diets and loss of vegetation cover, resulting in an increase in predation and loss of protection from temperature extremes. These changes in habitat also might cause changes in vertebrate communities in burned areas.

Southwestern Naturalist↗
USGS2005

Technology and the study of wildfire: Middle school students study the impacts of wildfire

Various technologies that can assist students in exploring the human and environmental impacts of wildfire and in communicating their findings are discussed. Wildfires occur in many parts of the world, and provide an excellent opportunity for students to study local and global interdisciplinary issues using technology. Prior to the beginning of the field study, students take instructions in both their math and science classes about the distinction and appropriate uses of quantitative and qualitative data. Use of computer programs such as Excel spreadsheets which can contain data, and interaction of research and technology group with students, can help them collect best of the information and in making an accurate report.

Meridian↗
USGS2024

Post-wildfire debris flows

Post-wildfire debris flows pose severe hazards to communities and infrastructure near and within recently burned mountainous terrain. Intense heat of wildfires changes the runoff characteristics of a watershed by combusting the vegetative canopy, litter, and duff, introducing ash into the soil and creating water repellant soils. Following wildfire, rainfall on bare ground is less able to infiltrate into the fire-altered soils and overland flow is less impeded by vegetation. Rainfall runoff in recently burned areas can erode hillslopes owing to the removal of soil binding organic matter near the soil surface by fire. In channels, loose, dry-ravel deposits composed of sand and gravel are readily entrained by concentrated runoff in channels. Entrainment of soil on hillslopes and in channels bulks up the sediment concentration of the rainfall runoff to generate debris flows capable of transporting boulders and large woody debris. Post-wildfire debris flows can be triggered by rainfall conditions that would typically produce little runoff during unburned conditions. The primary rainfall trigger for post-wildfire debris flows is high intensity rainfall during short duration convective rainstorms or periods of high rainfall intensity embedded within a long-duration frontal storm. Numerous observations of debris flows triggered by storms lasting less than an hour following periods of little to no rainfall indicate that antecedent rainfall is not a requirement for initiation of post-wildfire debris flows. Post-wildfire debris-flow hazard assessment entails estimating probability and magnitude of debris flows in the burned area, estimating debris-flow runout and intensity, and defining rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow initiation. In the United States, probability and magnitude is estimated using empirically derived models largely based on data collected in southern California. The models provide maps to identify watersheds and drainage paths where post-wildfire hazards are most pronounced. Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds can be incorporated into flood hazard forecasting tools. Currently, work is underway to identify how to best implement debris-flow runout models in burned areas with efficiency and accuracy. Post-wildfire debris flows have been a long-recognized process in the Transverse Ranges of southern California; however, climate change is driving more frequent wildfires to burn more mountainous terrain throughout the western United States and worldwide. As a result, post-wildfire debris flows are becoming a more common threat in areas where they were once infrequent. As the threat of post-wildfire debris flow expands into new areas, evaluating the hazard becomes challenging because the degree to which wildfire increases debris-flow susceptibility varies from region to region. This chapter summarizes the knowledge to date for evaluating post-wildfire debris-flow susceptibility and hazard assessment. We summarize the characteristics of wildfire burn severity, topography, underlying soil and geology, and rainfall conditions that contribute to making a watershed most likely to produce post-wildfire debris flows. Methods for hazard assessment in the United States and other countries are summarized. We highlight knowledge gaps for how post-wildfire debris-flow susceptibility varies throughout the western United States and worldwide and identify research needs to improve hazard assessment methods in different geographies.

Book chapter↗
USGS2024

Wildfire probability estimated from recent climate and fine fuels across the big sagebrush region

Background Wildfire is a major proximate cause of historical and ongoing losses of intact big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) plant communities and declines in sagebrush obligate wildlife species. In recent decades, fire return intervals have shortened and area burned has increased in some areas, and habitat degradation is occurring where post-fire re-establishment of sagebrush is hindered by invasive annual grasses. In coming decades, the changing climate may accelerate these wildfire and invasive feedbacks, although projecting future wildfire dynamics requires a better understanding of long-term wildfire drivers across the big sagebrush region. Here, we integrated wildfire observations with climate and vegetation data to derive a statistical model for the entire big sagebrush region that represents how annual wildfire probability is influenced by climate and fine fuel characteristics. Results Wildfire frequency varied significantly across the sagebrush region, and our statistical model represented much of that variation. Biomass of annual and perennial grasses and forbs, which we used as proxies for fine fuels, influenced wildfire probability. Wildfire probability was highest in areas with high annual forb and grass biomass, which is consistent with the well-documented phenomenon of increased wildfire following annual grass invasion. The effects of annuals on wildfire probability were strongest in places with dry summers. Wildfire probability varied with the biomass of perennial grasses and forbs and was highest at intermediate biomass levels. Climate, which varies substantially across the sagebrush region, was also predictive of wildfire probability, and predictions were highest in areas with a low proportion of precipitation received in summer, intermediate precipitation, and high temperature. Conclusions We developed a carefully validated model that contains relatively simple and biologically plausible relationships, with the goal of adequate performance under novel conditions so that useful projections of average annual wildfire probability can be made given general changes in conditions. Previous studies on the impacts of vegetation and climate on wildfire probability in sagebrush ecosystems have generally used more complex machine learning approaches and have usually been applicable to only portions of the sagebrush region. Therefore, our model complements existing work and forms an additional tool for understanding future wildfire and ecological dynamics across the sagebrush region.

Fire Ecology↗
USGS2025

Are wildfire risk mitigators more prepared to evacuate? Insights from communities in the western United States

As the realized experiences of wildfires threatening communities increase, the importance of proactive evacuation preparation and wildfire risk mitigation on private property to reduce the loss of lives and property is shaping wildfire policy and programs. To date, research has focused on pre-wildfire evacuation preparation and risk mitigation independently. This paper examines the substitutability or complementarity of these proactive risk-reducing actions. If mitigation and evacuation preparedness are substitutes, wildfire education programs may take a life-over-property approach. However, if proactive risk-reducing efforts are complements, wildfire education programs can confidently encourage residents to prepare for evacuation while also mitigating wildfire risk on their properties. This complementarity may also demonstrate that poorly mitigated households are less prepared to evacuate, compounding their risks. Using household survey data from 25 wildland-urban interface (WUI) communities across five Western states, we explore how wildfire risk mitigation actions affect evacuation preparedness. We find that improving household wildfire mitigation is associated with an improvement in wildfire evacuation preparedness. This complementary relationship between wildfire mitigation and evacuation preparedness actions highlights the potential benefits of a wildfire education approach that encourages residents to simultaneously prepare for evacuation and reduce wildfire risk on their properties before they are threatened by a wildfire.

western United States↗
USGS2023

Prolonged drought in a northern California coastal region suppresses wildfire impacts on hydrology

Wildfires naturally occur in many landscapes, however they are undergoing rapid regime shifts. Despite the emphasis in the literature on the most severe hydrological responses to wildfire, there remains a knowledge gap on the thresholds of wildfire (i.e. burned area/drainage area ratio, BAR) required to initiate hydrological responses. We investigated hydrological changes in the Russian River Watershed (RRW) in California, a coastal, Mediterranean, drought-prone, wildfire-adapted ecosystem, following ten wildfires that burned 30% of the watershed. Our findings suggest that sub-watersheds of the RRW have not burned beyond an intrinsic, unknown, threshold required to initiate change. Using paired watersheds, we examined spatiotemporal patterns of pre-and-post wildfire hydrology with a rainfall-runoff hydrological model. Even though these successive wildfires burned 1-50% of each sub-watershed (1-30% at moderate/high severity), we found little evidence of wildfire-related shifts in hydrology. As a function of BAR, wildfire imposed limited effects on runoff ratios (runoff/precipitation) and runoff residuals (observations - model simulations). Our findings that post-wildfire runoff enhancements asymptote beyond 30% burn indicate that when a watershed is burned beyond a certain threshold, the magnitude of the hydrologic response no longer increases. Drought and storm conditions explained much of the variability observed in streamflow, whereas wildfire explained only moderate variability in streamflow even when wildfire accounted for >45% BAR. While the BAR in the RRW was sufficiently beyond previously reported minimum disturbance thresholds (>20% burned forest), the lack of hydrological response is attributed to buffering effects of wildfire adaptation and drought factors that are unique to Mediterranean ecoregions.

California↗
USGS2024

An intercomparison of DOC estimated from fDOM sensors in wildfire affected streams of the western United States

Wildfires in the western United States (US) have been demonstrated to affect water quality, including dissolved organic carbon (DOC), in streams. Elevated post-wildfire DOC concentration poses a potential risk to drinking water treatment systems. In-stream measurements of fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM), a proxy for DOC, have shown potential to detect dynamic changes in DOC. High frequency monitoring of water temperature, turbidity, and fDOM was used in conjunction with discrete sampling during targeted storm events and at fixed intervals to estimate DOC in five western US streams following wildfires in 2020 and 2021 with the objective to characterise and compare responses to wildfire among sites. The elevated turbidity conditions typical after wildfire presented a challenge to fDOM measurements and there was a need to identify appropriate turbidity corrections at burned sites. A combination of established and novel methods corrected fDOM concentrations for turbidity effects up to 800 Formazin nephelometric units (FNU). Pre-wildfire high frequency water quality data in adjacent burned and unburned watersheds allowed for separation of climate effects on DOC at one of the sites. Hydrology, climate and landcover were more important drivers of post-wildfire DOC yield than wildfire characteristics. Seasonal patterns of DOC were unchanged by wildfire in snowmelt-driven watersheds. Large, transient spikes in DOC concentration following frontal and convective storms were observed post-wildfire at all burned sites, but not at the unburned site. These spikes often exceeded operational thresholds for drinking water treatment. This study highlights the ability to develop high frequency DOC estimates in surface waters up to 800 FNU using fDOM sensors and targeted storm sampling and emphasises the value of high frequency pre-wildfire data in adjacent burned and unburned watersheds for separating climate and wildfire effects.

California, Colorado, Montana, Oregon↗
USGS2017

Regeneration and invasion of cottonwood riparian forest following wildfire

Populus deltoides is considered to be a weak resprouter and highly susceptible to wildfire, but few post-wildfire studies have tracked P. deltoides response and resprouting within the Great Plains of North America. Following a wildfire in southwestern Kansas, U.S.A., we surveyed burned and unburned areas of a cottonwood riparian forest along the Cimarron River that included a major understory invader, tamarisk ( Tamarix ramosissima Ledeb.). We tested the following hypotheses, which are consistent with the current understanding of P. deltoides response to wildfire in the Great Plains: (1) regeneration of P. deltoides will be low in areas burned by the wildfire; (2) the number of dead P. deltoides individuals will be greater in the wildfire than unburned areas; and (3) tamarisk regeneration will be higher than P. deltoides regeneration in the wildfire areas because tamarisk is considered a stronger resprouter. We found evidence contrary to two of our hypotheses 3 years following the wildfire. (1) P. deltoides regeneration was high following the wildfire, averaging 692 individuals/ha. (2) The number of dead mature cottonwood trees was greater in wildfire plots than in unburned plots. (3) There was more P. deltoides regeneration than tamarisk regeneration following wildfire. These findings, which diverge from the majority of studies examining P. deltoides regeneration in the Great Plains, suggest that differing local environmental and forest stand conditions, coupled with the timing and intensity of the fire, could be important determinants of riparian forest species' responses to wildfire.

Kansas↗
USGS2002

Effects of Wildfire on the Hydrology of Capulin and Rito de los Frijoles canyons, Bandelier National Monument, New Mexico

In June of 1977, the La Mesa wildfire burned 15,270 acres in and around Frijoles Canyon in Bandelier National Monument and the adjacent Santa Fe National Forest, New Mexico. The Dome wildfire in April of 1996 in Bandelier National Monument burned 16,516 acres in Capulin Canyon and the surrounding Dome Wilderness area. Both watersheds are characterized by abundant and extensive archeological sites that could be affected by increased runoff and accelerated rates of erosion, which typically occur after a wildfire. The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the National Park Service monitored the wildfires' effects on streamflow in both canyons. The magnitude of large stormflows increased dramatically after these wildfires; peak flows at the most downstream streamflow-gaging station in Frijoles and Capulin Canyons increased to about 160 times the maximum recorded flood prior to the fire. Maximum peak flow was 3,030 cubic feet per second at the gaging station in Frijoles Canyon (drainage area equals 18.1 square miles) and 3,630 cubic feet per second at the most downstream crest-stage gage in Capulin Canyon (drainage area equals 14.1 square miles). The pre-fire maximum peak flow recorded in these two canyons was 19 and an estimated 25 cubic feet per second, respectively. As vegetation reestablished itself during the second year, the post-fire annual maximum peak flow decreased to about 10 to 15 times the pre-fire annual maximum peak flow. During the third year, maximum annual peak flows decreased to about three to five times the pre-fire maximum peak flow. In the 22 years since the La Mesa wildfire, flood magnitudes have not completely returned to pre-fire size. Post-fire flood magnitudes in Frijoles and Capulin Canyons do not exceed the maximum floods per drainage area for physiographic regions 5 and 6 in New Mexico. For a burned watershed, however, the peak flows that occur after a wildfire are several orders of magnitude larger than normal forested watershed peak flows. The frequency of larger stormflows also increased in response to the effects of the wildfires in both canyons. In Frijoles Canyon, the number of peak stormflows greater than the pre-fire maximum flow of 19 cubic feet per second was 15 in 1977, 9 in 1978, and 5 in 1979, which is about the magnitude of the maximum pre-fire peak flow in both canyons. Again the hydrologic effects of a wildfire seem to be more pronounced for the 3 years following the date of the fire. Likewise, larger peakflows occurred more frequently in Capulin Canyon for the first 3 years after the 1996 wildfire. Median suspended-sediment concentrations in samples collected in Frijoles Canyon in 1977 were 1,330 milligrams per liter; median concentrations were 16 milligrams per liter after the watershed stabilized in 1993-95. The annual load calculated from regression equations for load compared to flow for the first year after the wildfire was 220 times the annual load for the post-recovery period. To convey the increased frequency and magnitude of average flows in Capulin Canyon after the 1996 Dome wildfire, the stream channel in Capulin Canyon increased in flow capacity by widening and downcutting. As Capulin Canyon peak flows have decreased in both magnitude and frequency with vegetative recovery, the stream channel also has slowly begun to readjust. The channel at the most downstream crest-stage gage, which has the shallowest initial valley slope, is showing the first signs of aggradation.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2022

Wildfire influences individual growth and breeding dispersal, but not survival and recruitment in a montane amphibian

Global wildfire regimes are changing rapidly, with widespread increases in the size, frequency, duration, and severity of wildfires. Whereas the effects of wildfire on ecological state variables such as occupancy, abundance, and species diversity are relatively well documented, changes in population vital rates (e.g., survival, recruitment) and individual responses (e.g., growth, movement) to wildfire are more limited because of the detailed information needed on the same individuals both pre- and post-fire. We capitalized on the 2018 Roosevelt wildfire, which occurred during our 6-year (2015–2020) capture–mark–recapture study of boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreas boreas ; n = 1415) in the Bridger-Teton National Forest, USA, to evaluate the responses of population vital rates and individual metrics to wildfire. We employed robust design capture–recapture models to compare the growth, dispersal, survival, and recruitment of adult boreal toads pre- and post-fire at burned versus unburned sites. At burned locations, growth increased 2 years post-fire compared with the year directly following wildfire and was higher 2 years post-fire than any other interval during our study period. Boreal toads dispersed to alternative breeding patches more at burned sites than unburned sites and dispersal increased 2 years post-fire compared with the year directly following wildfire. Annual survival and recruitment neither differed between pre- and post-fire years nor among pre-fire years, the year following wildfire, and 2 years post-fire. We demonstrate that, in certain contexts, dispersal can play a major role in changes to state variables (e.g., abundance) after wildfire, as opposed to other vital rates such as survival and recruitment. Our study represents an important step toward understanding the biological processes that underlie observed patterns in state variables following wildfire, which ultimately will be critical for the effective management of species in landscapes experiencing shifts in fire activity.

Wyoming↗
USGS2012

Pattern and process of prescribed fires influence effectiveness at reducing wildfire severity in dry coniferous forests

We examined the effects of three early season (spring) prescribed fires on burn severity patterns of summer wildfires that occurred 1&ndash;3 years post-treatment in a mixed conifer forest in central Idaho. Wildfire and prescribed fire burn severities were estimated as the difference in normalized burn ratio (dNBR) using Landsat imagery. We used GIS derived vegetation, topography, and treatment variables to generate models predicting the wildfire burn severity of 1286&ndash;5500 30-m pixels within and around treated areas. We found that wildfire severity was significantly lower in treated areas than in untreated areas and significantly lower than the potential wildfire severity of the treated areas had treatments not been implemented. At the pixel level, wildfire severity was best predicted by an interaction between prescribed fire severity, topographic moisture, heat load, and pre-fire vegetation volume. Prescribed fire severity and vegetation volume were the most influential predictors. Prescribed fire severity, and its influence on wildfire severity, was highest in relatively warm and dry locations, which were able to burn under spring conditions. In contrast, wildfire severity peaked in cooler, more mesic locations that dried later in the summer and supported greater vegetation volume. We found considerable evidence that prescribed fires have landscape-level influences within treatment boundaries; most notable was an interaction between distance from the prescribed fire perimeter and distance from treated patch edges, which explained up to 66% of the variation in wildfire severity. Early season prescribed fires may not directly target the locations most at risk of high severity wildfire, but proximity of these areas to treated patches and the discontinuity of fuels following treatment may influence wildfire severity and explain how even low severity treatments can be effective management tools in fire-prone landscapes.

Idaho↗
USGS2024

Changes in soil erosion caused by wildfire: A conceptual biogeographic model

Soil erosion rates after wildfire are strongly controlled by intrinsic properties such as topography, weather, climate, soil, and vegetation. These landscape and hydroclimatic properties are important in determining post-fire erosion rates; however, their influence on post-fire erosion and their interaction with the intensity of a wildfire remains uncertain. A key limitation in resolving this uncertainty is the lack of conceptual models and frameworks for organising data related to the geomorphic sensitivity of landscapes to wildfire. Our aim is to develop a framework for consolidating understanding of post-fire erosion in the context of hydroclimatic conditions which contribute to system states, for example soil and vegetation properties, and wildfire regime. The framework is developed around a simple conceptual model where the change in erosion due to wildfire is a product of change in runoff generation and sediment supply, which is strongly related to landscape net primary productivity (NPP). We hypothesised that geomorphic sensitivity to wildfire should vary as a unimodal humped relationship across a gradient of NPP, peaking at an intermediate level. To develop this framework and to test the hypothesis, we first review intrinsic soil and vegetation properties related to the supply and transport of sediment from burned and unburned hillslopes. Net primary productivity is systematically related to these intrinsic properties because it integrates many processes involved in soil and vegetation development. Empirical data indicate a trend in the change in surface runoff generation with NPP after wildfire, peaking at an NPP of approximately 15 Mg C ha −1 y −1 . A simple model of fuel availability and soil heating are correlated with a similar “humped” trend in sediment supply. These results are consistent with our conceptual model, which indicates that sediment supply and runoff contribute towards a distinct peak in wildfire effects on erosion at an intermediate level of NPP. We propose that landscapes of intermediate NPP typically have the highest quantity of fuel available to burn, which cause large changes to the soil surface properties. Landscapes at intermediate NPP also tend to produce intrinsic soil and vegetation properties that promote erosion after wildfire. The interplay between these short and long-term landscape characteristics is strongest at intermediate levels of NPP. Our proposed biogeographic model of geomorphic sensitivity to wildfire was supported by erosion data from burned hillslope and zero-order catchments studies from a range fire-prone landscapes in Australia and North America. Our proposed conceptual model will help identify areas most vulnerable to post-fire erosion changes.

Geomorphology↗
USGS2026

Perceptions of parcel-level wildfire risk differ between homeowners and trained assessors in wildland-urban interface communities across the western United States

Wildfire risk mitigation on private property is central to reducing community wildfire vulnerability. Homeowners have control over many of the key factors that contribute to wildfire risk on their parcels, yet vulnerable conditions persist. One potential explanation is a misalignment between homeowners' and trained assessors' perceptions of parcel-level wildfire risk. Prior research has documented a “risk gap” in a single community wherein owners often underestimate their parcel-level wildfire risk; however, it is unclear whether such misalignments are widespread. This study replicates and expands previous research by examining the parcel-level wildfire risk gap in 38 wildland–urban interface (WUI) communities across the Western United States using paired data from household surveys and parcel-level wildfire risk assessments by trained assessors. We find that homeowners and assessors often perceive parcel characteristics differently. Homeowners may systematically mis-weight their importance, tending to underweight key controllable factors such as building materials and defensible space, leading to meaningful divergence from trained assessor ratings. Accordingly, we also find that homeowners generally underestimate overall parcel wildfire risk compared to trained assessors. These results suggest that even when homeowners recognize attributes on their parcels that contribute to wildfire risk, they may not fully grasp how much the attributes contribute to overall parcel risk, potentially failing to recognize the need to undertake meaningful mitigation actions. The findings from this study contribute to the broader natural hazards literature on expert-layperson risk perception gaps and offer insights for improving wildfire communication, education, and mitigation strategies in WUI communities.

Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2024

Upper limits for post-wildfire floods and distinction from debris flows

Upper magnitude limits and scaling with basin size for post-wildfire floods are unknown. An envelope curve was estimated defining post-wildfire flood upper limits as a function of basin area. We show the importance of separating peak flows by floods versus debris flows. Post-wildfire flood maxima are a constant 43 m 3 s −1 km −2 for basins from 0.01 to 23 to 34 km 2 and then declining with added basin area according to a power law relation. Intense rainfall spatial scaling may cause the envelope curve threshold at 23 to 34 km 2 . Post-wildfire flood maxima are smaller than unburned flood maxima for similar basin area. Rainstorm comparisons indicate that post-wildfire floods are triggered by smaller precipitation depths than unburned floods. Post-wildfire exceptional floods are driven by extreme rainfall rates, in contrast to post-wildfire debris flows. Runoff rates for post-wildfire envelope floods are consistent with infiltration-excess runoff. Future increases in precipitation intensity or wildfire frequency and extent could increase post-wildfire flood upper limits.

Science↗