Archiving early seismological records at the California Institute of Technology
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A new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for greater Tokyo
Tokyo and its outlying cities are home to one-quarter of Japan's 127 million people. Highly destructive earthquakes struck the capital in 1703, 1855 and 1923, the last of which took 105 000 lives. Fuelled by greater Tokyo's rich seismological record, but challenged by its magnificent complexity, our joint Japanese-US group carried out a new study of the capital's earthquake hazards. We used the prehistoric record of great earthquakes preserved by uplifted marine terraces and tsunami deposits (17 M???8 shocks in the past 7000 years), a newly digitized dataset of historical shaking (10 000 observations in the past 400 years), the dense modern seismic network (300 000 earthquakes in the past 30 years), and Japan's GeoNet array (150 GPS vectors in the past 10 years) to reinterpret the tectonic structure, identify active faults and their slip rates and estimate their earthquake frequency. We propose that a dislodged fragment of the Pacific plate is jammed between the Pacific, Philippine Sea and Eurasian plates beneath the Kanto plain on which Tokyo sits. We suggest that the Kanto fragment controls much of Tokyo's seismic behaviour for large earthquakes, including the damaging 1855 M???7.3 Ansei-Edo shock. On the basis of the frequency of earthquakes beneath greater Tokyo, events with magnitude and location similar to the M??? 7.3 Ansei-Edo event have a ca 20% likelihood in an average 30 year period. In contrast, our renewal (time-dependent) probability for the great M??? 7.9 plate boundary shocks such as struck in 1923 and 1703 is 0.5% for the next 30 years, with a time-averaged 30 year probability of ca 10%. The resulting net likelihood for severe shaking (ca 0.9g peak ground acceleration (PGA)) in Tokyo, Kawasaki and Yokohama for the next 30 years is ca 30%. The long historical record in Kanto also affords a rare opportunity to calculate the probability of shaking in an alternative manner exclusively from intensity observations. This approach permits robust estimates for the spatial distribution of expected shaking, even for sites with few observations. The resulting probability of severe shaking is ca 35% in Tokyo, Kawasaki and Yokohama and ca 10% in Chiba for an average 30 year period, in good agreement with our independent estimate, and thus bolstering our view that Tokyo's hazard looms large. Given $1 trillion estimates for the cost of an M???7.3 shock beneath Tokyo, our probability implies a $13 billion annual probable loss. ?? 2006 The Royal Society.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗
Rockslides on the Terminus of "Jokulsargilsjokull", Southern Iceland
On 10 November 1976, a 1.5 km × 0.5 km rockslide deposit on the surface of an unnamed outlet glacier of Mýrdalsjökull ice cap, southern Iceland, was observed from an aircraft. Deposits from two different rockslides, including the larger one observed on 10 November 1976, were visible on a 10 September 1978 aerial photograph of the unnamed outlet glacier. An analysis of vertical and oblique aerial photographs, Landsat images, and seismological records was used to establish the time of occurrence of the larger rockslide to a 30-day period between 9 September 1972 and 9 October 1972. The trigger mechanisms for the rockslide activity appear to have been heavy precipitation prior to the event and the decrease of buttressing mass at the base of the valley wall resulting from recession of the glacier (decrease in width and thickness). The recession led to instability of highly altered hyaloclastite bedrock, talus, and morainal materials on an oversteepened slope. An earthquake as a trigger mechanism was considered to be unlikely from a thorough review of seismic records. Measurements of the downglacier movement of the larger rockslide deposit give an average speed of the glacier as 30±3 m a-1 between September/October 1972 and 10 September 1978. From measurements of aerial photographs taken on 10 September 1978 and 4 September 1984, the average speed of the glacier increased to 45 m a-1 during this 6-year interval. Although the terminus of the unnamed outlet glacier had not yet begun to advance in 1986, it had undergone thickening since 1978.
Geografiska Annaler, Series A: Physical Geography↗
Data quality of seismic records from the Tohoku, Japan earthquake as recorded across the Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory networks
Great earthquakes recorded across modern digital seismographic networks, such as the recent Tohoku, Japan, earthquake on 11 March 2011 (M w = 9.0), provide unique datasets that ultimately lead to a better understanding of the Earth's structure (e.g., Pesicek et al. 2008) and earthquake sources (e.g., Ammon et al. 2011). For network operators, such events provide the opportunity to look at the performance across their entire network using a single event, as the ground motion records from the event will be well above every station's noise floor.
Seismological Research Letters↗
Urban seismology - Northridge aftershocks recorded by multi-scale arrays of portable digital seismographs
We deployed portable digital seismographs in the San Fernando Valley (SFV), the Los Angeles basin (LAB), and surrounding hills to record aftershocks of the 17 January 1994 Northridge California earthquake. The purpose of the deployment was to investigate factors relevant to seismic zonation in urban areas, such as site amplification, sedimentary basin effects, and the variability of ground motion over short baselines. We placed seismographs at 47 sites (not all concurrently) and recorded about 290 earthquakes with magnitudes up to 5.1 at five stations or more. We deployed widely spaced stations for profiles across the San Fernando Valley, as well as five dense arrays (apertures of 200 to 500 m) in areas of high damage, such as the collapsed Interstate 10 overpass, Sherman Oaks, and the collapsed parking garage at CalState Northridge. Aftershock data analysis indicates a correlation of site amplification with mainshock damage. We found several cases where the site amplification depended on the azimuth of the aftershock, possibly indicating focusing from basin structures. For the parking garage array, we found large ground-motion variabilities (a factor of 2) over 200-m distances for sites on the same mapped soil unit. Array analysis of the aftershock seismograms demonstrates that sizable arrivals after the direct S waves consist of surface waves traveling from the same azimuth as that of the epicenter. These surface waves increase the duration of motions and can have frequencies as high as about 4 Hz. For the events studied here, we do not observe large arrivals reflected from the southern edge of the San Fernando Valley.
California↗
Rapid Source Characterization of the 2023 Mw 6.8 Al Haouz, Morocco, Earthquake
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) estimates source characteristics of significant damaging earthquakes, aiming to place events within their seismotectonic framework. Contextualizing the 8 September 2023, M w 6.8 Al Haouz, Morocco, earthquake is challenging, because it occurred in an enigmatic region of active surface faulting, and low seismicity yet produced significant damage and loss of life. Here, we present the rapid earthquake source products produced by the USGS NEIC, describing how the source model was derived using both seismic and geodetic observations. Our analysis indicates that the earthquake was the result of oblique‐reverse faulting in the lower crust on either a steeply north‐dipping fault or a moderately south‐dipping fault. Finite‐slip models using seismic and geodetic data reveal a compact source, with slip occurring at depths of 15–35 km. The causative fault is not apparent, because the rupture did not break the surface, and it is not possible to definitively attribute the earthquake to a known structure. The earthquake centroid depth of 25 km is noteworthy, because it shows slip extending beyond common estimates of seismogenic depth. This earthquake highlights that the seismogenic processes associated with mountain building in this wide plate boundary region are poorly understood.
The Seismological Record↗
The August 2018 Kaktovik earthquakes: Active tectonics in northeastern Alaska revealed With InSAR and seismology
The largest earthquakes recorded in northern Alaska (M w 6.4 and M w 6.0) occurred ~6 hours apart on August 12, 2018 in the northeastern Brooks Range. The earthquakes were captured by Sentinel-1 InSAR satellites and Earthscope Transportable Array seismic data, giving insight into the little-known active tectonic processes of Arctic Alaska, obscured until recently by sparse data availability. In this study, InSAR modelling, teleseismic back projections, calibrated hypocentral relocations and regional moment tensor solutions resolve two previously unknown, SSW-dipping right-lateral fault segments. These are the first active faults identified as conjugate to the NE-trending sinistral Canning Displacement Zone directly to the west, which is therefore a more complex zone of diffuse faulting than previously thought. The northeastern Brooks Range has been characterized as an area of low to moderate seismic hazard, but these earthquakes illustrate the potential for larger, possibly destructive events in a region earmarked for rapid resource development.
Alaska↗
The (mythical) M8.2 off coast of Peru earthquake of 12 December 1908
Global earthquake catalogs covering the early twentieth century differ in their listings of a large earthquake, or earthquakes, on 12 December 1908. Some catalogs list an M ∼ 7 "> M ∼ 7 M∼7 earthquake originating in northern Myanmar (Burma) at ∼ 12 : 55 "> ∼ 12 : 55 ∼12:55 UTC on that date. Other catalogs do not list the Myanmar origin but list an earthquake with magnitude 8.2 originating in or near Peru at 12:08 UTC on the date. Some catalogs list both origins, but sometimes with additional evidence suggesting that the 1908 M 8.2 Peru origin may be “mythical.” In a review of arrival times of phases reported in seismic bulletins of 1908, conducted specifically to identify data that might be consistent with the sometimes‐cataloged Peru origin, we do not find a coherent set of such data. Many bulletin arrival times reported for 12 December 1908, however, are mutually consistent with the cataloged Myanmar origin. Comparisons of seismograms recorded at the Seismological Observatory of Göttingen in Germany (station GTT) on 12 December 1908 with seismograms obtained on the same instruments for later large earthquakes that are reliably located in Myanmar and Peru, respectively, are consistent with the implication of the bulletin arrival‐time observations. We conclude that a major earthquake did indeed occur in or near northern Myanmar on 12 December 1908 but that there was not on that date a great earthquake near Peru that would correspond to the sometimes‐cataloged M 8.2 Peru origin.
Northern Myanmar (Burma)↗
Seismology with dark data: Image-based processing of analog records using machine learning for the rangely earthquake control experiment
Before the digital era, seismograms were recorded in analog form and read manually by analysts. The digital era represents only about 25% of the total time span of instrumental seismology. Analog data provide important constraints on earthquake processes over the long term, and in some cases are the only data available. The media on which analog data are recorded degrades with time and there is an urgent need for cost‐effective approaches to preserve the information they contain. In this study, we work directly with images by constructing a set of image‐based methods for earthquake processing, rather than pursue the usual approach of converting analog data to vector time series. We demonstrate this approach on one month of continuous Develocorder films from the Rangely earthquake control experiment run by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). We scan the films into images and compress these into low‐dimensional feature vectors as input to a classifier that separates earthquakes from noise in a defined feature space. We feed the detected event images into a short‐term average/long‐term average (STA/LTA) picker, a grid‐search associator, and a 2D image correlator to measure both absolute arrival times and relative arrival‐time differences between events. We use these measurements to locate the earthquakes using hypoDD. In the month that we studied, we identified 40 events clustered near the injection wells. In the original study, Raleigh et al. (1976) identified only 32 events during the same period. Scanning without vectorizing analog seismograms represents an attractive approach to archiving these perishable data. We demonstrated that it is possible to carry out precision seismology directly on such images. Our approach has the potential for wide application to analog seismograms.
Seismological Research Letters↗
Hilbert-Huang transform analysis of dynamic and earthquake motion recordings
This study examines the rationale of Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) for analyzing dynamic and earthquake motion recordings in studies of seismology and engineering. In particular, this paper first provides the fundamentals of the HHT method, which consist of the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and the Hilbert spectral analysis. It then uses the HHT to analyze recordings of hypothetical and real wave motion, the results of which are compared with the results obtained by the Fourier data processing technique. The analysis of the two recordings indicates that the HHT method is able to extract some motion characteristics useful in studies of seismology and engineering, which might not be exposed effectively and efficiently by Fourier data processing technique. Specifically, the study indicates that the decomposed components in EMD of HHT, namely, the intrinsic mode function (IMF) components, contain observable, physical information inherent to the original data. It also shows that the grouped IMF components, namely, the EMD-based low- and high-frequency components, can faithfully capture low-frequency pulse-like as well as high-frequency wave signals. Finally, the study illustrates that the HHT-based Hilbert spectra are able to reveal the temporal-frequency energy distribution for motion recordings precisely and clearly.
Journal of Engineering Mechanics↗
Processing of strong-motion accelerograms: Needs, options and consequences
Recordings from strong-motion accelerographs are of fundamental importance in earthquake engineering, forming the basis for all characterizations of ground shaking employed for seismic design. The recordings, particularly those from analog instruments, invariably contain noise that can mask and distort the ground-motion signal at both high and low frequencies. For any application of recorded accelerograms in engineering seismology or earthquake engineering, it is important to identify the presence of this noise in the digitized time-history and its influence on the parameters that are to be derived from the records. If the parameters of interest are affected by noise then appropriate processing needs to be applied to the records, although it must be accepted from the outset that it is generally not possible to recover the actual ground motion over a wide range of frequencies. There are many schemes available for processing strong-motion data and it is important to be aware of the merits and pitfalls associated with each option. Equally important is to appreciate the effects of the procedures on the records in order to avoid errors in the interpretation and use of the results. Options for processing strong-motion accelerograms are presented, discussed and evaluated from the perspective of engineering application. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering↗
Stress-driven recurrence and precursory moment-rate surge in caldera collapse earthquakes
Predicting the recurrence times of earthquakes and understanding the physical processes that immediately precede them are two outstanding problems in seismology. Although geodetic measurements record elastic strain accumulation, most faults have recurrence intervals longer than available measurements. Foreshocks provide the principal observations of processes before mainshocks, but variability between sequences limits generalizations of pre-failure behaviour. Here we analyse seismicity and deformation data for highly characteristic caldera collapse earthquakes from 2018 Kīlauea Volcano (Hawaii, USA), with a mean recurrence interval of 1.4 days. These events provide a unique test of stress-induced earthquake recurrence and document processes preceding mainshocks with magnitude greater than five. We show that recurrence intervals are well predicted by stress histories inferred from near-field deformation measurements and that cycle-averaged seismicity reveals a critical phase, minutes before mainshocks, where earthquakes grew larger and seismic moment rate surged dramatically. The average moment rate in the final 15 minutes (0.7% of the mean cycle duration) was 4.75 times the background, a highly significant change. We infer that as the average stress increased, ruptures were more likely to overcome geometric barriers and grow larger, leading to characteristic, whole-fault ruptures. These findings imply that stress heterogeneity influences both earthquake nucleation and growth, including on potentially hazardous tectonic faults.
Nature Geoscience↗
Digital recordings of aftershocks of the 17 October 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake
After the 17 October 1989 Loma Prieta, central California, earthquake (291 00:04:15.25 UTC, M s =7.1), the U. S. Geological Survey recorded aftershocks at sites of seismologic and engineering interest. This report describes a seismic-waveform dataset collected from 17 October 1989 (291 UTC) to 14 March 1990 (073 UTC) with GEOS digital seismographs deployed from USGS offices in Menlo Park, California. It is a summary of field and data-playback information that is intended to facilitate use of the waveform data in seismologic and engineering studies. It includes station locations, instrumentation histories (trigger parameters, sensor parameters, clock corrections, etc.), listings of waveform records, preliminary seismicity listings, and information about data availability. Our principal research goal is to understand the influence of seismic-source and wave-propagation phenomena on damaging ground motions, and to use this knowledge to predict hazards from future earthquakes. Source processes encompass the spatial and temporal variations in the excitation of seismic waves at the fault. Wave-propagation processes include amplification and deamplification as seismic energy radiates away from the fault through rocks and soils of variable seismic properties. Since shallow geology at a site (upper tens to hundreds of meters) can exert a relatively great influence on damaging ground motions, it is useful to separate wave-propagation phenomena into whole-path and site parts. In studying these phenomena, aftershock waveform recordings can play an important role. Compared to main shocks, aftershocks are simple earthquakes and aftershock records tend to be relatively dominated by wave-propagation effects. Geometrically, since aftershocks are distributed over the fault zone, aftershock records should resemble part of the main-shock ground motion contributed by localized rupture. This observation forms the basis of the empirical-Green's-function method wherein main-shock ground motion is modeled by summing aftershock records. The Loma Prieta earthquake provided a rare opportunity that motivated the intensive aftershock-recording effort described in this report. In a seismically noisy urban environment like the San Francisco Bay area, such a large set of high quality seismic data would otherwise be unobtainable.
California↗
How to determine an earthquake rate budget? A comparison of geodetic, geologic, and seismologic moment rates
How much tectonic geodetic strain is accommodated as earthquakes? Can estimates of tectonic geodetic strain be used in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses? Understanding the balance of moment accumulation (i.e., geodetic moment) and accommodation (i.e., geologic and seismologic moment) is a necessary step toward leveraging corrected geodetic strain rates to quantify earthquake budgets. We investigate these questions using updated geodetic, geologic, and seismologic datasets compiled for the western United States (WUS) portion of the 2023 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM23‐WUS) to provide new views of moment rates across the WUS. We compare moment rates using a floating footprint approach across the extent of the NSHM23‐WUS fault sections database. We make these comparisons using “moment rate deviation (MRD),” which is defined as a surplus or deficit of geodetic moment rate relative to the sum of geologic and seismologic moment rates. We find that, in general, higher strain rate areas of the WUS (i.e., plate boundary) have smaller values of MRD, meaning that geodetic moment rates approximate the earthquake record preserved by geologic and seismologic moment rates well. In contrast, the lower strain rate, eastern portions of our analysis domain (i.e., intraplate) have very high values of MRD, with geodetic moment rates exceeding measured geologic and seismologic moment rates. We find that geodetic moment rates appear to be representative of the earthquake budget in relatively well‐characterized, interplate regions, and geodetic estimates of off‐fault deformation could be considered in seismic hazard analyses where MRD is minimized.
western United States↗
CWB free-field strong-motion data from the 21 September Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake
The Chi-Chi earthquake occurred at 17:47 on 20 September 1999 and is the largest earthquake ( M W 7.6) to have occurred on land in Taiwan in the twentieth century. This earthquake caused considerable damage and was named the “921 Chi-Chi Great Earthquake” by the Taiwan government, as the local date was 21 September. Because an extensive strong-motion instrumentation program in Taiwan was completed by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in 1996, over 30,000 digital strong-motion records have been obtained from the Chi-Chi earthquake and thousands of its aftershocks. These records form the largest set of strong-motion data recorded from a major earthquake since strong-motion seismology studies began in the 1930s. This data set is important to seismology and earthquake engineering because it includes over 60 recording sites within 20 km of the fault ruptures, which provides a five-fold increase of such near-field records available for the entire world.
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
Method for calculating self-noise spectra and operating ranges for seismographic inertial sensors and recorders
Understanding the performance of sensors and recorders is prerequisite to making appropriate use of them in seismology and earthquake engineering. This paper explores a critical aspect of instrument performance, the “self” noise level of the device and the amplitude range it can usefully record. Self noise limits the smallest signals, while instrument clipping level creates the upper limit (above which it either cannot produce signals or becomes unacceptably nonlinear). Where these levels fall, and the “operating range” between them, determines much of the instrument's viability and the applications for which it is appropriate. The representation of seismic-instrument self-noise levels and their effective operating ranges (cf., dynamic range) for seismological inertial sensors, recorders (data acquisition units, or DAUs), and integrated systems of sensors and recorders (data acquisition systems, or DASs) forces one to address an unnatural comparison between transient finite-bandwidth signals, such as earthquake records, and the instrument's self noise, an effectively stationary signal of infinite duration. In addition to being transient, earthquakes and other records of interest are characterized by a peak amplitude and generally a narrow, peaked spectral shape. Unfortunately, any power spectrum computed for such transient signals is ill defined, since the maximum of that spectrum depends strongly upon signal and record durations. In contrast, the noise floor of an instrument is approximately stationary and properly described by a power spectral density (PSD) or its root (rPSD). Put another way, earthquake records have units of amplitude ( e.g. , m/s 2 ) while PSDs have units of amplitude-squared per hertz ( e.g. , (m/s 2 ) 2 /Hz) and the rPSD has units of amplitude per root of hertz ( e.g. , (m/s 2 )/Hz 1/2 ). Thus, this incompatability is a conflict between earthquake (amplitude) and PSD (spectral density) units that requires one to make various assumptions before they can be compared. For purposes of instrument operational performance, we provide a means of evaluating signal and noise and the range between them in a manner representative of time-domain instrument performance. We call these “operating range diagrams” (ORDs), plots of instrument self noise and clipping level; the “operating range” is the range between these values. For frequency-domain performance we elect to show self noise as an rPSD that may be compared to another instrument's noise or to ambient Earth noise ( e.g. , Peterson 1993); however, to limit the number of arbitrary choices required to merge transient and stationary signals we do not compare the rPSD to transient signals in the frequency domain. Our solution for a time-domain comparison is not new but rather builds upon the consensus of the first and second Guidelines for Seismometer Testing workshops (Hutt et al. 2009) and long established practice in acoustics. We propose this method as a standard for characterizing seismic instruments, and it has been endorsed by the second workshop (Hutt et al. 2009, 2010) and the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) Working Group (2008) and recent ANSS procurement specifications.
Seismological Research Letters↗
Challenges in observational seismology
Earthquake seismology became a quantitative scientific discipline after instruments were developed to record seismic waves in the late 19th century ( Dewey and Byerly, 1969 ; Chapter 1 by Agnew). Earthquake seismology is essentially based on field observations. The great progress made in the past several decades was primarily due to increasingly plentiful and high-quality data that are readily distributed. Our ability to collect, process, and analyze earthquake data has been accelerated by advances in electronics, communications, computers, and software (see Chapter 85 edited by Snoke and Garcia-Fernandez). Instrumental observation of earthquakes has been carried out for a little over 100 years by seismic stations and networks of various sizes, from local to global scales (see Chapter 87 edited by Lahr and van Eck). The observed data have been used, for example, (1) to compute the source parameters of earthquakes, (2) to determine the physical properties of the Earth's interior, (3) to test the theory of plate tectonics , (4) to map active faults, (5) to infer the nature of damaging ground shaking, and (6) to carry out seismic hazard analysis. Construction of a satisfactory theory of the earthquake process has not yet been achieved within the context of physical laws. Good progress, however, has been made in building a physical foundation of the earthquake source process, partly as a result of research directed toward earthquake prediction. This chapter is intended for a general audience. Technical details are not given, but relevant references and chapters in this Handbook are referred to. The first part of this chapter presents a brief overview of the observational aspects of earthquake seismology, concentrating on instrumental observations of seismic waves generated by earthquakes (i.e., seismic monitoring), and readers are referred to Chapter 49 by Musson and Cecic for noninstrumental observations. A few key developments and practices are summarized by taking a general view, since many national and regional developments have been chronicled in national and institutional reports (see Chapter 79 edited by Kisslinger). In the latter part of this chapter, the nature of seismic monitoring and some challenges in observational seismology are discussed from a personal perspective. Comments of a technical or philosophical nature are given in the Notes at the end of the chapter, and they are referenced by superscript numbers in the text.
International Geophysics↗
Evaluation of an open earthquake early warning system in Mexico, and laboratory tests of their sensors
Microelectromechanical system (MEMS) accelerometers are useful for seismological and engineering applications because of their ability to record unsaturated large seismic signals. Recent advances in MEMS technologies enable the design of instruments with improved capabilities that also allow the recording of small signals. As a result, MEMS can be useful across a broad dynamic range and for both major earthquakes and smaller magnitude events. Here, we analyze the performance of a MEMS‐based accelerometer with the capability of real‐time data transmission. We discuss the self‐noise level, dynamic range, and sensitivity, along with the timing precision and data transmission latency, and compare these parameters to other MEMS‐based instruments. We also summarize observations from a regional network deployed in southern Mexico over a period of 3+ yr for the purpose of earthquake early warning. In addition to the sensor evaluation, we present a large, openly available data set of strong motion data from the Mexican network that comprises continuous ground‐motion records from 24 accelerometers in the period between 2017 and 2022.
Seismological Research Letters↗