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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS1991

Control of pest species: Tree shelters help protect seedlings from nutria

Various methods of nutria preventative techniques were tested in attempts to curb the loss of seedlings due to nutria capturing. The results of testing possibly indicate that tree shelters have real potential for use in forest restoration projects on sites with moderate nutria populations. Tree shelters may even prove effective on sites with high nutria populations, as long as alternative food supplies are available.

Louisiana↗
USGS1986

Prairie restoration at the National Wildlife Health Laboratory (Wisconsin)

The National Wildlife Health Laboratory (NWHL), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in Madison are in the process of a 7-ha prairie restoration project on their lands to create a microcosmic representation of presettlement Wisconsin. Visiting scientists, personnel from local schools and universities, and neighboring public will eventually be able to use this land for its educational and esthetic value while becoming more familiar with the goals and objectives of the Fish and Wildlife Service and the NWHL. Self-guiding nature trails and a kiosk will facilitate public use after the project is completed.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2021

Preface to book: Wetland carbon and environmental management

The idea for this book, including its organization and contents, has its origin in the latest environmental and climate policy requirements in the United States, as well as science advances. In 2007, the U.S. Congress passed the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA), from which Section 712 required U.S. Federal agencies to provide a better understanding of carbon and greenhouse gas fluxes across the United States. As a result, largescale and coordinated efforts were launched to assess carbon storage, carbon fluxes, and greenhouse gas fluxes including CO2, CH4, and N2O from all major terrestrial and freshwater aquatic ecosystems, including forest, grassland/shrub, agricultural lands, wetlands, and rivers, streams, lakes, and impoundments. The EISA assessment produced major results (Selmants et al., 2017; Zhu, 2011; Zhu & McGuire, 2016; Zhu & Reed, 2012, 2014), but recognized that wetlands remained a significant source of uncertainty, especially for those wetlands that were being actively managed. The more recent Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which devoted two separate chapters to inland and coastal wetlands, respectively, noted that large knowledge gaps still remain, ranging from inadequate analysis of restored and managed wetlands, and consequences of management decisions, to future wetland responses to climate change (USGCRP, 2018). In recent literature, wetland management is suggested as a potential natural solution to mitigate climate change (Fargione et al., 2018, Kroeger et al., 2017) and help offset direct losses of wetlands from sea level rise, subsidence, and coastal erosion (Wang et al., 2017). The recognition that a synthesis of wetland carbon management was urgently needed was the genesis of Wetland Carbon and Environmental Management; discerning the relationships between wetland management and carbon flux (loss or gain) is an international goal.

Geophysical Monograph Series↗
USGS2024

When and where can coastal wetland restoration increase carbon sequestration as a natural climate solution?

Coastal wetlands are hotspots of carbon sequestration, and their conservation and restoration can help to mitigate climate change. However, there remains uncertainty on when and where coastal wetland restoration can most effectively act as a Natural Climate Solution (NCS). Here, we synthesize current understanding to illustrate the requirements for coastal wetland restoration to benefit climate, and discuss potential paths forward that address key uncertainties impeding implementation. To be effective as NCS, coastal wetland restoration projects will accrue climate cooling benefits that would not occur without management action (additionality), will be implementable (feasibility), and will persist over management-relevant timeframes (permanence). Several issues add uncertainty to understanding if these minimum requirements are met. First, coastal wetlands serve as both a landscape source and sink of carbon for other habitats, increasing uncertainty in additionality. Second, coastal wetlands can potentially migrate outside of project footprints as they respond to sea-level rise, increasing uncertainty in permanence. To address these first two issues, a system-wide approach may be necessary, rather than basing cooling benefits only on changes that occur within project boundaries. Third, the need for NCS to function over management-relevant decadal timescales means methane responses may be necessary to include in coastal wetland restoration planning and monitoring. Finally, there is uncertainty on how much data is required to justify restoration action. We summarize the minimum data required to make a decision on whether there is a net cooling benefit from a management action, noting that these data are more readily available than the data required to quantify the magnitude of cooling benefits for carbon crediting purposes. By reducing uncertainty, coastal wetland restoration can be implemented at the scale required to significantly contribute to addressing the current climate crisis.

Coastal Futures↗
USGS2024

Assessing spatial variability of nutrients, phytoplankton, and related water-quality constituents in the California Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta at the landscape scale—2018 high resolution mapping surveys

Executive Summary This study examined the abundance and distribution of nutrients and phytoplankton in the tidal aquatic environments of the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta) and Suisun Bay, comprising three spatial surveys conducted in May, July, and October of 2018 that used continuous underway high frequency sampling and measurements onboard a high-speed boat to characterize spatial variation across the extent of the Delta. The method used involves simultaneously collecting information about the concentration and spatial distribution of all major nutrient forms with analogous information about the major classes of phytoplankton and associated water-quality conditions. The results showed substantial variation across space and time, providing an unprecedented snapshot of the dynamic environmental processes that shape the ways nutrients interact with and affect aquatic habitats in the Delta. The purposes of this study were to improve our understanding of how hydrodynamics, landscape features, and aquatic primary productivity interact to drive nutrient cycling and transport in the Delta and to provide insights into the underlying processes most directly responsible for the conditions at the time of this study, and thus into the range of conditions that may be expected following the wide array of prospective future changes to the Delta. One major anticipated change at the time of this study was the planned upgrade to the Sacramento Regional Wastewater Treatment Plant, but the study also informs our understanding of potential effects from other changes to the Delta, such as those caused by other nutrient-management actions, flow actions, large-scale wetland restoration, drought, flood, levee failure, and changes to water management. Nutrient loading is the primary driver of nutrient concentrations in the Delta, but several other major drivers interact to shape their distribution and effects: geomorphology, hydrodynamics, landscape features, and aquatic productivity. Hydrodynamics affect timescales of transport and dilution of nutrient loads in the Delta. During transit through the system, channel geometry, tidal mixing, and water exports affect hydrodynamics in diverse ways that influence water-residence and transport times, thereby markedly affecting the range of times during which natural internal cycling can alter nutrient concentrations and forms. Channel geometry and location shape tidal energy and river currents into these observed dynamics. Interactions with Delta aquatic landscapes such as herbaceous tidal marsh, submerged aquatic vegetation, and large expanses of intertidal or subtidal sediments (all highly productive landscapes) exert demand on available nutrient supplies but can also simultaneously transform and generate nutrients. Finally, while phytoplankton require nutrients to sustain production and thus are a potential nutrient sink, the amount and form of nutrients also can influence the occurrence of harmful algal blooms (HABs) that adversely affect aquatic organisms as well as affect the occurrence of beneficial algal blooms that result in production of algae that are favorable for imperiled Delta pelagic aquatic food webs. The surveys revealed a complex mosaic of spatial variation, with nutrient concentrations varying from near zero to well above concentrations considered eutrophic; nutrient concentrations were more often related to the extent of hydrologic transport and mixing than to specific geographic locations or to specific landscape features. Similarly, the surveys identified phytoplankton abundance ranging from near detection to the level of large phytoplankton blooms, with large variation in phytoplankton community composition. Although the study occurred during a period of low bloom activity, phytoplankton productivity appeared to be the strongest potential sink for inorganic nutrients in the Delta, indicating that it is a larger control on nutrient concentrations and distribution than previously understood. Cycling and transformation within the water column only appeared to substantially lower total nutrient concentrations at the longest estimated transport timescales. Contrary to expectations, we did not observe substantial nutrient depletion near landscape-scale features such as open-water habitats, submerged aquatic vegetation beds, extensive wetlands, or exposed sediments, indicating that these habitat types did not act as major sinks for nutrients in the Delta during these surveys. These results indicated that nutrient reduction efforts may have the greatest effect on pelagic phytoplankton productivity in the more productive reaches of the Delta and estuary, but these effects are unlikely to be magnified by changes to nutrient loss within the Delta over conceivable changes in flow conditions, Delta water management actions, or large-scale wetland restoration activities. Nevertheless, local processes were shown to cause substantial loss, and thus integrating of nutrient effects with other indicators of aquatic habitat conditions will help inform planning future actions at specific sites. Finally, we note that the primary contribution of this study was intended to be the survey data themselves. Aside from the results highlighted in this report, the surveys are a benchmark against which future environmental change may be evaluated, including changes to nutrient management or water exports, drought, large-scale wetland restoration, and climate change. Further, although we highlight some of the main findings from the surveys in this report, the necessarily limited scope precludes examination of many topics for which these surveys may be highly informative. To facilitate the utility of these data to stakeholders, managers, and researchers, we have released the data online (Bergamaschi and others, 2020) and created an online data exploration portal ( https:​//ca.water​.usgs.gov/​bay-​delta/​2018-​delta-​wide-​mapping-​surveys.html ) where users may query the surveys in a variety of ways to test hypotheses, examine relationships, assess spatial trends, and download data. The data exploration portal is intended to be an immersive experience that allows users to gain greater understanding of the complex interactions that shape Delta aquatic environments. This report is intended as a companion to the portal, allowing the reader to challenge and further explore the highlighted findings. This study was a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Delta Regional Monitoring Program, with additional funding provided from U.S. Geological Survey Cooperative Matching Funds Program.

California↗
USGS2010

Long-term trends in submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) in Chesapeake Bay, USA, related to water quality

Chesapeake Bay supports a diverse assemblage of marine and freshwater species of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) whose broad distributions are generally constrained by salinity. An annual aerial SAV monitoring program and a bi-monthly to monthly water quality monitoring program have been conducted throughout Chesapeake Bay since 1984. We performed an analysis of SAV abundance and up to 22 environmental variables potentially influencing SAV growth and abundance (1984-2006). Historically, SAV abundance has changed dramatically in Chesapeake Bay, and since 1984, when SAV abundance was at historic low levels, SAV has exhibited complex changes including long-term (decadal) increases and decreases, as well as some large, single-year changes. Chesapeake Bay SAV was grouped into three broad-scale community-types based on salinity regime, each with their own distinct group of species, and detailed analyses were conducted on these three community-types as well as on seven distinct case-study areas spanning the three salinity regimes. Different trends in SAVabundance were evident in the different salinity regimes. SAV abundance has (a) continually increased in the low-salinity region; (b) increased initially in the medium-salinity region, followed by fluctuating abundances; and (c) increased initially in the high-salinity region, followed by a subsequent decline. In all areas, consistent negative correlations between measures of SAV abundance and nitrogen loads or concentrations suggest that meadows are responsive to changes in inputs of nitrogen. For smaller case-study areas, different trends in SAV abundance were also noted including correlations to water clarity in high-salinity case-study areas, but nitrogen was highly correlated in all areas. Current maximum SAV coverage for almost all areas remain below restoration targets, indicating that SAV abundance and associated ecosystem services are currently limited by continued poor water quality, and specifically high nutrient concentrations, within Chesapeake Bay. The nutrient reductions noted in some tributaries, which were highly correlated to increases in SAV abundance, suggest management activities have already contributed to SAV increases in some areas, but the strong negative correlation throughout the Chesapeake Bay between nitrogen and SAV abundance also suggests that further nutrient reductions will be necessary for SAV to attain or exceed restoration targets throughout the bay.

Estuaries and Coasts↗
USGS2010

Wolves will not provide small-scale ecological restoration

Licht and colleagues (BioScience 60: 147–153) proposed a paradigm shift in wolf management to include the introductions of small, highly manipulated groups of wolves ( Canis lupus ) to confined natural areas to facilitate ecosystem recovery. Certainly, reductions or losses of apex predators from many regions worldwide have had profound effects on ecosystem characteristics (Soulé et al. 2003). Numerous efforts to restore or enhance predator populations through policy change or reintroductions have occurred, often with the intent to restore ecosystem function (Breitenmoser et al. 2001). However, in addition to the gargantuan technological and political challenges inherent in Licht and colleagues' proposal, we contend that intensively managed wolves will not restore natural ecosystem processes given the disparity in scale between these proposed actions and the ecosystem processes that wolves foster. Further, we note that predator-prey relationships are more complex than Licht suggested.

BioScience↗
USGS2009

Channel, floodplain, and wetland responses to floods and overbank sedimentation, 1846-2006, Halfway Creek Marsh, Upper Mississippi Valley, Wisconsin

Conversion of upland forest and prairie vegetation to agricultural land uses, following Euro-American settlement in the Upper Mississippi River System, led to accelerated runoff and soil erosion that subsequently transformed channels, floodplains, and wetlands on bottomlands. Halfway Creek Marsh, at the junction of Halfway Creek and the Mississippi River on Wisconsin's western border, is representative of such historical transformation. This marsh became the focus of a 2005-2006 investigation by scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Wisconsin- Madison, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, who used an understanding of the historical transformation to help managers identify possible restoration alternatives for Halfway Creek Marsh. Field-scale topographic surveys and sediment cores provided data for reconstructing patterns and rates of historical overbank sedimentation in the marsh. Information culled from historical maps, aerial photographs, General Land Offi ce Survey notes, and other historical documents helped establish the timing of anthropogenic disturbances and document changes in channel patterns. Major human disturbances, in addition to agricultural land uses, included railroad and road building, construction of artifi cial levees, drainage alterations, and repeated dam failures associated with large floods. A volume of approximately 1,400,000 m 3 , involving up to 2 m of sandy historical overbank deposition, is stored through the upper and lower marshes and along the adjacent margins of Halfway Creek and its principal tributary, Sand Lake Coulee. The estimated overbank sedimentation rate for the entire marsh is ??3,000 m 3 yr- 1 for the recent period 1994-2006. In spite of reduced surface runoff and soil erosion in recent years, this recent sedimentation rate still exceeds by ??4 times the early settlement (1846-1885) rate of 700 m 3 yr- 1 , when anthropogenic acceleration of upland surface runoff and soil erosion was beginning. The highest rate of historical bottomland sedimentation occurred from 1919 to 1936, when the estimated overbank sedimentation rate was 20,400 m 3 yr- 1 . This rate exceeded by nearly 30 times the 1846-1886 rate. Artifi cial levees were constructed along the upper reach of Halfway Creek in the marsh during the early twentieth century to restrict fl ooding on the adjacent bottomlands. Anomalously high overbank sedimentation rates subsequently occurred on the fl oodplain between the levees, which also facilitated more effi cient transport of sediment into the lower marsh bottomland. Although overbank sedimentation rates dropped after 1936, corresponding to the widespread adoption of soil-conservation and agricultural best-management practices, the continuation of anomalously high overbank sedimentation between the levees led to increased bank heights and development of a relatively deep channel. The deep cross-section morphology is commonly mistaken as evidence of channel incision; however, this morphology actually resulted from excessive overbank sedimentation. The historical metamorphosis of the Halfway Creek channel and riparian wetlands underscores the importance of understanding the long-term history of channel and fl oodplain evolution when restoration of channels and riparian wetlands are under consideration. Sedimentation patterns and channel morphology for Halfway Creek Marsh probably are representative of other anthropogenically altered riparian wetlands in the Upper Mississippi River System and similar landscapes elsewhere.

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America↗
USGS2015

Food web heterogeneity and succession in created saltmarshes

1. Ecological restoration must achieve functional as well as structural recovery. Functional metrics for reestablishment of trophic interactions can be used to complement traditional monitoring of structural attributes. In addition, topographic effects on food web structure provide added information within a restoration context; often, created sites may require spatial heterogeneity to effectively match structure and function of natural habitats. 2. We addressed both of these issues in our study of successional development of benthic food web structure, with focus on bottom–up driven changes in macroinvertebrate consumer assemblages in the salt marshes of the Venice Lagoon, Italy. We combined quantified estimates of the changing community composition with stable isotope data (13C:12C and 15N:14N) to compare the general trophic structure between created (2–14 years) marshes and reference sites and along topographic elevation gradients within salt marshes. 3. Macrofaunal invertebrate consumers exhibited local, habitat-specific trophic patterns. Stable isotope-based trophic structure changed with increasing marsh age, in particular with regards to mid-elevation (Salicornia) habitats. In young marshes, the mid-elevation consumer signatures resembled those of unvegetated ponds. The mid elevation of older and natural marshes had a more distinct Salicornia-zone food web, occasionally resembling that of the highest (Sarcocornia-dominated) elevation. In summary, this indicates that primary producers and availability of vascular plant detritus structure consumer trophic interactions and the flow of carbon. 4. Functionally different consumers, subsurface-feeding detritivores (Oligochaeta) and surface grazers (Hydrobia sp.), showed distinct but converging trajectories of isotopic change over time, indicating that successional development may be asymmetric between ‘brown’ (detrital) guilds and ‘green’ (grazing) guilds in the food web. 5. Synthesis and applications. Created marsh food webs converged into a natural state over about a decade, with successional shifts seen in both consumer community composition and stable isotope space. Strong spatial effects were noted, highlighting the utility of stable isotopes to evaluate functional equivalence in spatially heterogeneous systems. Understanding the recovery of functional properties such as food web support, and their inherent spatial variability, is key to planning and managing successful habitat restoration.

Adriatic Sea, Venice Lagoon↗
USGS2009

Estimating transition probabilities among everglades wetland communities using multistate models

In this study we were able to provide the first estimates of transition probabilities of wet prairie and slough vegetative communities in Water Conservation Area 3A (WCA3A) of the Florida Everglades and to identify the hydrologic variables that determine these transitions. These estimates can be used in management models aimed at restoring proportions of wet prairie and slough habitats to historical levels in the Everglades. To determine what was driving the transitions between wet prairie and slough communities we evaluated three hypotheses: seasonality, impoundment, and wet and dry year cycles using likelihood-based multistate models to determine the main driver of wet prairie conversion in WCA3A. The most parsimonious model included the effect of wet and dry year cycles on vegetative community conversions. Several ecologists have noted wet prairie conversion in southern WCA3A but these are the first estimates of transition probabilities among these community types. In addition, to being useful for management of the Everglades we believe that our framework can be used to address management questions in other ecosystems. ?? 2009 The Society of Wetland Scientists.

Wetlands↗
USGS2007

An overview of the Valles Caldera National Preserve: the natural and cultural resources

The Valles Caldera National Preserve is one of New Mexico’s natural wonders and a popular area for public recreation, sustainable natural resource production, and scientific research and education. Here, we provide a concise overview of the natural and cultural history of the Preserve, including descriptions of the ecosystems, flora and fauna. We note that, at the landscape scale, the Valles caldera appears to be spectacularly pristine; however, humans have extracted resources from the Preserve area for many centuries, resulting in localized impacts to forests, grasslands and watersheds. The Valles Caldera Trust is now charged with managing the Preserve and providing public access, while preserving and restoring these valuable public resources.

New Mexico↗
USGS2002

Wildlife disease in the Colorado Delta as an indicator of ecosystem health

Ecosystem health and management are relatively new paradigms for environmental management (Costanza et al., 1992) and will be continually redefined and reevaluated relative to their purpose and utility in serving human society (Costanza et al., 1992; Sutter, 1993; Grumbine, 1994; Lackey, 1998, 1999). The stimulus for ecosystem management is often associated with sustaining or restoring ecosystem health to provide values sought by humans (Costanza et al., 1992). We accept the concepts of ecosystem health and management as useful precepts. However, we argue that the orientation in serving human values often has resulted in inadequate attention being given to nonhuman species. The need to address ecosystem health for the benefit of all species that share Planet Earth is noted by Merchant (1997). This humanistic viewpoint also has economic benefits that are part of the wealth that we will pass on to future generations (Pulliam, 1995). Despite the viewpoints just noted, disease occurrence in wildlife receives inadequate consideration with regard to perspectives of ecosystem health and as a focus for ecosystem management. Evidence for this view is the limited resources allocated for wildlife disease programs and prevention efforts, and persistent attitudes within the wildlife conservation community that disease is a “natural event,” not influenced by environmental conditions or anthropogenic insults.

California↗
USGS2023

Estimating elk abundance using the Lincoln-Petersen method

Achieving a target population size is often the first goal of species restorations. From 2012 to 2014, the Virginia Department of Wildlife Resources released 75 elk ( Cervus canadensis ) originating from Kentucky into Buchanan County in southwestern Virginia. These individuals were ear tagged with unique numbers upon release with an additional 33 elk tagged within the Virginia Elk Management Zone (VEMZ) from 2019 through early 2022. To assess post-release population size, we conducted visual driving surveys throughout Buchanan County from January through mid-April, 2021 and January through March, 2022, counting elk and noting sex, age class, and tagged individuals when observed. We conducted four surveys annually, each consisting of pooled elk counts from eight driving routes, and calculated a Lincoln-Petersen population estimate with Chapman’s bias correction for each survey, then averaged estimates for each year. The population estimate in Buchanan County was 250 (95% CI: 100–400) elk in 2021 and 303 (155–452) in 2022. Our elk population estimates indicate Virginia is on the trajectory of meeting the first goal in their 2019–2028 elk management plan of achieving a viable elk population.

Virginia↗
USGS2024

Annotated bibliography of scientific research on Taeniatherum caput-medusae published from January 2010 to January 2022

Integrating recent scientific knowledge into management decisions supports effective natural resource management and can lead to better resource outcomes. However, finding and accessing scientific knowledge can be time consuming and costly. To assist in this process, the U.S. Geological Survey is creating a series of annotated bibliographies on topics of management concern for western lands. Previously published reports introduced a methodology for preparing annotated bibliographies to facilitate the integration of recent, peer-reviewed science into resource management decisions. Therefore, relevant text from those efforts is reproduced here to frame the presentation. Invasive annual grasses are widely distributed throughout the western United States and threaten native ecosystems by altering fire regimes, replacing native plants, and altering grazing patterns, often with tremendous associated costs. One invasive annual grass, Taeniatherum caput-medusae (hereafter, medusahead), was first documented in the United States in 1887 and has been identified as a species of management concern. Medusahead’s life history traits allow it to quickly and effectively dominate native plant communities, and it has already taken over millions of acres in western North America. Although medusahead can spread widely and disrupt ecosystem function, it has been studied less than other western invasive grass species. We compiled and summarized peer-reviewed journal articles, data products, and formal technical reports (such as U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service General Technical Reports and U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Reports) on medusahead, published between January 2010 and January 2022. We first performed a systematic search of three reference databases and three government databases using the search phrase “medusahead” OR “medusa head” OR “ Taeniatherum caput-medusae ” OR “ Taeniatherum caputmedusae ” OR “ Taeniatherum asperum .” We refined the initial list of products by removing (1) duplicates, (2) products not written in English, (3) publications that were not focused on North America, (4) publications that were not published as research, data products, or scientific review articles in peer-reviewed journals or as formal technical reports, and (5) products for which medusahead was not a research focus, or the study did not present new data or findings about medusahead. We summarized each product using a consistent structure (background, objectives, methods, location, findings, and implications) and identified the management topics (for example, species and population characteristics; habitat; and control and management efforts) addressed by each product. We also noted which publications included new geospatial data. The review process for this annotated bibliography included an initial internal colleague review of each summary, requesting input on each summary from an author of the original publication, and a formal peer review. Our initial searches resulted in 4,245 total products, of which 211 met our criteria for inclusion. The most commonly addressed management topics addressed in products summarized in the annotated bibliography were as follows: nonnative invasive plants, weed management, site-scale habitat characteristics, habitat restoration or reclamation, and cultural management of weeds. All published bibliographies, including the online version of this bibliography, are available at the Science for Resource Managers ( https://apps.usgs.gov/science-for-resource-managers ). This database is searchable by topic, location, and year and includes links to each original publication. The studies compiled and summarized here may inform planning and management actions that seek to maintain and restore sagebrush landscapes and associated native species across the western United States.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2011

A Markov decision process for managing habitat for Florida scrub-jays

Florida scrub-jays Aphelocoma coerulescens are listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act due to loss and degradation of scrub habitat. This study concerned the development of an optimal strategy for the restoration and management of scrub habitat at Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge, which contains one of the few remaining large populations of scrub-jays in Florida. There are documented differences in the reproductive and survival rates of scrubjays among discrete classes of scrub height (<120 cm or "short"; 120-170 cm or "optimal"; .170 cm or "tall"; and a combination of tall and optimal or "mixed"), and our objective was to calculate a state-dependent management strategy that would maximize the long-term growth rate of the resident scrub-jay population. We used aerial imagery with multistate Markov models to estimate annual transition probabilities among the four scrub-height classes under three possible management actions: scrub restoration (mechanical cutting followed by burning), a prescribed burn, or no intervention. A strategy prescribing the optimal management action for management units exhibiting different proportions of scrub-height classes was derived using dynamic programming. Scrub restoration was the optimal management action only in units dominated by mixed and tall scrub, and burning tended to be the optimal action for intermediate levels of short scrub. The optimal action was to do nothing when the amount of short scrub was greater than 30%, because short scrub mostly transitions to optimal height scrub (i.e., that state with the highest demographic success of scrub-jays) in the absence of intervention. Monte Carlo simulation of the optimal policy suggested that some form of management would be required every year. We note, however, that estimates of scrub-height transition probabilities were subject to several sources of uncertainty, and so we explored the management implications of alternative sets of transition probabilities. Generally, our analysis demonstrated the difficulty of managing for a species that requires midsuccessional habitat, and suggests that innovative management tools may be needed to help ensure the persistence of scrub-jays at Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge. The development of a tailored monitoring program as a component of adaptive management could help reduce uncertainty about controlled and uncontrolled variation in transition probabilities of scrub-height and thus lead to improved decision making.

Florida↗