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USGS2000

MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey modular ground-water model; user guide to the observation, sensitivity, and parameter-estimation processes and three post-processing programs

This report documents the Observation, Sensitivity, and Parameter-Estimation Processes of the ground-water modeling computer program MODFLOW-2000. The Observation Process generates model-calculated values for comparison with measured, or observed, quantities. A variety of statistics is calculated to quantify this comparison, including a weighted least-squares objective function. In addition, a number of files are produced that can be used to compare the values graphically. The Sensitivity Process calculates the sensitivity of hydraulic heads throughout the model with respect to specified parameters using the accurate sensitivity-equation method. These are called grid sensitivities. If the Observation Process is active, it uses the grid sensitivities to calculate sensitivities for the simulated values associated with the observations. These are called observation sensitivities. Observation sensitivities are used to calculate a number of statistics that can be used (1) to diagnose inadequate data, (2) to identify parameters that probably cannot be estimated by regression using the available observations, and (3) to evaluate the utility of proposed new data. The Parameter-Estimation Process uses a modified Gauss-Newton method to adjust values of user-selected input parameters in an iterative procedure to minimize the value of the weighted least-squares objective function. Statistics produced by the Parameter-Estimation Process can be used to evaluate estimated parameter values; statistics produced by the Observation Process and post-processing program RESAN-2000 can be used to evaluate how accurately the model represents the actual processes; statistics produced by post-processing program YCINT-2000 can be used to quantify the uncertainty of model simulated values. Parameters are defined in the Ground-Water Flow Process input files and can be used to calculate most model inputs, such as: for explicitly defined model layers, horizontal hydraulic conductivity, horizontal anisotropy, vertical hydraulic conductivity or vertical anisotropy, specific storage, and specific yield; and, for implicitly represented layers, vertical hydraulic conductivity. In addition, parameters can be defined to calculate the hydraulic conductance of the River, General-Head Boundary, and Drain Packages; areal recharge rates of the Recharge Package; maximum evapotranspiration of the Evapotranspiration Package; pumpage or the rate of flow at defined-flux boundaries of the Well Package; and the hydraulic head at constant-head boundaries. The spatial variation of model inputs produced using defined parameters is very flexible, including interpolated distributions that require the summation of contributions from different parameters. Observations can include measured hydraulic heads or temporal changes in hydraulic heads, measured gains and losses along head-dependent boundaries (such as streams), flows through constant-head boundaries, and advective transport through the system, which generally would be inferred from measured concentrations. MODFLOW-2000 is intended for use on any computer operating system. The program consists of algorithms programmed in Fortran 90, which efficiently performs numerical calculations and is fully compatible with the newer Fortran 95. The code is easily modified to be compatible with FORTRAN 77. Coordination for multiple processors is accommodated using Message Passing Interface (MPI) commands. The program is designed in a modular fashion that is intended to support inclusion of new capabilities.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2000

Landsat 7 processing on the EROS Data Center's National Land Archive Processing System (NLAPS)

Staff at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) EROS Data Center (EDC) process Landsat 7 data for customer distribution on two distinct systems. The Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) processing is done on the Level -1 Product Generation System (LPGS), and the USGS processing is completed on the National Land Archive Processing System (NLAPS). The NLAPS is capable of processing data from Landsat 1-5 and 7 and SPOT 1-3. The data can be processed with correction levels ranging from Level-0 raw data to terrain-corrected precision products in a variety of output formats. The NLAPS processing system requires that different ordering procedures be used for standard recipe versus special order processing, and it makes available many processing and framing options. The NLAPS draws on a ground control point library whose sources range from paper maps to textual descriptions and registered source imagery, such as digital orthophoto quadrangles. The accuracy of the final products will vary depending on the level of correction applied and the source of the ground control points used for the precision corrections. An accuracy assessment of the LPGS systematic product versus the NLAPS systematic product demonstrates that both systems provide the same geometric and radiometric accuracy in systematically corrected products.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2003

MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey Modular Ground-Water Model--Documentation of the SEAWAT-2000 Version with the Variable-Density Flow Process (VDF) and the Integrated MT3DMS Transport Process (IMT)

SEAWAT-2000 is the latest release of the SEAWAT computer program for simulation of three-dimensional, variable-density, transient ground-water flow in porous media. SEAWAT-2000 was designed by combining a modified version of MODFLOW-2000 and MT3DMS into a single computer program. The code was developed using the MODFLOW-2000 concept of a process, which is defined as ?part of the code that solves a fundamental equation by a specified numerical method.? SEAWAT-2000 contains all of the processes distributed with MODFLOW-2000 and also includes the Variable-Density Flow Process (as an alternative to the constant-density Ground-Water Flow Process) and the Integrated MT3DMS Transport Process. Processes may be active or inactive, depending on simulation objectives; however, not all processes are compatible. For example, the Sensitivity and Parameter Estimation Processes are not compatible with the Variable-Density Flow and Integrated MT3DMS Transport Processes. The SEAWAT-2000 computer code was tested with the common variable-density benchmark problems and also with problems representing evaporation from a salt lake and rotation of immiscible fluids.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2017

Processing and review interface for strong motion data (PRISM) software, version 1.0.0—Methodology and automated processing

A continually increasing number of high-quality digital strong-motion records from stations of the National Strong-Motion Project (NSMP) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as well as data from regional seismic networks within the United States, call for automated processing of strong-motion records with human review limited to selected significant or flagged records. The NSMP has developed the Processing and Review Interface for Strong Motion data (PRISM) software to meet this need. In combination with the Advanced National Seismic System Quake Monitoring System (AQMS), PRISM automates the processing of strong-motion records. When used without AQMS, PRISM provides batch-processing capabilities. The PRISM version 1.0.0 is platform independent (coded in Java), open source, and does not depend on any closed-source or proprietary software. The software consists of two major components: a record processing engine and a review tool that has a graphical user interface (GUI) to manually review, edit, and process records. To facilitate use by non-NSMP earthquake engineers and scientists, PRISM (both its processing engine and review tool) is easy to install and run as a stand-alone system on common operating systems such as Linux, OS X, and Windows. PRISM was designed to be flexible and extensible in order to accommodate new processing techniques. This report provides a thorough description and examples of the record processing features supported by PRISM. All the computing features of PRISM have been thoroughly tested.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2015

Markov decision processes in natural resources management: observability and uncertainty

The breadth and complexity of stochastic decision processes in natural resources presents a challenge to analysts who need to understand and use these approaches. The objective of this paper is to describe a class of decision processes that are germane to natural resources conservation and management, namely Markov decision processes, and to discuss applications and computing algorithms under different conditions of observability and uncertainty. A number of important similarities are developed in the framing and evaluation of different decision processes, which can be useful in their applications in natural resources management. The challenges attendant to partial observability are highlighted, and possible approaches for dealing with it are discussed.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2011

Sources and physical processes responsible for OH/H2O in the lunarsoil as revealed by the Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3)

Analysis of two absorption features near 3 μ m in the lunar reflectance spectrum, observed by the orbiting M 3 spectrometer and interpreted as being due to OH and H 2 O, is presented, and the results are used to discuss the processes producing these molecules. This analysis focuses on the dependence of the absorptions on lunar physical properties, including composition, illumination, latitude, and temperature. Solar wind proton-induced hydroxylation is proposed as the creation process, and its products could be a source for other reported types of hydrogen-rich material and water. The irregular and damaged fine-grained lunar soil seems especially adapted for trapping solar wind protons and forming OH owing to abundant dangling oxygen bonds. The M 3 data reveal that the strengths of the two absorptions are correlated and widespread, and both are correlated with lunar composition but in different ways. Feldspathic material seems richer in OH. These results seem to rule out water from the lunar interior and cometary infall as major sources. There appear to be correlations of apparent band strengths with time of day and lighting conditions. However, thermal emission from the Moon reduces the apparent strengths of the M 3 absorptions, and its removal is not yet completely successful. Further, many of the lunar physical properties are themselves intercorrelated, and so separating these dependencies on the absorptions is difficult, due to the incomplete M 3 data set. This process should also operate on other airless silicate surfaces, such as Mercury and Vesta, which will be visited by the Dawn spacecraft in mid-2011.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS2014

Does lake size matter? Combining morphology and process modeling to examine the contribution of lake classes to population-scale processes

With lake abundances in the thousands to millions, creating an intuitive understanding of the distribution of morphology and processes in lakes is challenging. To improve researchers’ understanding of large-scale lake processes, we developed a parsimonious mathematical model based on the Pareto distribution to describe the distribution of lake morphology (area, perimeter and volume). While debate continues over which mathematical representation best fits any one distribution of lake morphometric characteristics, we recognize the need for a simple, flexible model to advance understanding of how the interaction between morphometry and function dictates scaling across large populations of lakes. These models make clear the relative contribution of lakes to the total amount of lake surface area, volume, and perimeter. They also highlight the critical thresholds at which total perimeter, area and volume would be evenly distributed across lake size-classes have Pareto slopes of 0.63, 1 and 1.12, respectively. These models of morphology can be used in combination with models of process to create overarching “lake population” level models of process. To illustrate this potential, we combine the model of surface area distribution with a model of carbon mass accumulation rate. We found that even if smaller lakes contribute relatively less to total surface area than larger lakes, the increasing carbon accumulation rate with decreasing lake size is strong enough to bias the distribution of carbon mass accumulation towards smaller lakes. This analytical framework provides a relatively simple approach to upscaling morphology and process that is easily generalizable to other ecosystem processes.

Inland Waters↗

USGS2015

Potential for real‐time understanding of coupled hydrologic and biogeochemical processes in stream ecosystems: Future integration of telemetered data with process models for glacial meltwater streams

While continuous monitoring of streamflow and temperature has been common for some time, there is great potential to expand continuous monitoring to include water quality parameters such as nutrients, turbidity, oxygen, and dissolved organic material. In many systems, distinguishing between watershed and stream ecosystem controls can be challenging. The usefulness of such monitoring can be enhanced by the application of quantitative models to interpret observed patterns in real time. Examples are discussed primarily from the glacial meltwater streams of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica. Although the Dry Valley landscape is barren of plants, many streams harbor thriving cyanobacterial mats. Whereas a daily cycle of streamflow is controlled by the surface energy balance on the glaciers and the temporal pattern of solar exposure, the daily signal for biogeochemical processes controlling water quality is generated along the stream. These features result in an excellent outdoor laboratory for investigating fundamental ecosystem process and the development and validation of process‐based models. As part of the McMurdo Dry Valleys Long‐Term Ecological Research project, we have conducted field experiments and developed coupled biogeochemical transport models for the role of hyporheic exchange in controlling weathering reactions, microbial nitrogen cycling, and stream temperature regulation. We have adapted modeling approaches from sediment transport to understand mobilization of stream biomass with increasing flows. These models help to elucidate the role of in‐stream processes in systems where watershed processes also contribute to observed patterns, and may serve as a test case for applying real‐time stream ecosystem models.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS1992

Woods Hole Image Processing System Software implementation; using NetCDF as a software interface for image processing

The Branch of Atlantic Marine Geology has been involved in the collection, processing and digital mosaicking of high, medium and low-resolution side-scan sonar data during the past 6 years. In the past, processing and digital mosaicking has been accomplished with a dedicated, shore-based computer system. With the need to process sidescan data in the field with increased power and reduced cost of major workstations, a need to have an image processing package on a UNIX based computer system which could be utilized in the field as well as be more generally available to Branch personnel was identified. This report describes the initial development of that package referred to as the Woods Hole Image Processing System (WHIPS). The software was developed using the Unidata NetCDF software interface to allow data to be more readily portable between different computer operating systems.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2011

Peat formation processes through the millennia in tidal marshes of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, USA

The purpose of this study was to determine peat formation processes throughout the millennia in four tidal marshes in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Peat cores collected at each site were analyzed for bulk density, loss on ignition, and percent organic carbon. Core data and spline fit age-depth models were used to estimate inorganic sedimentation, organic accumulation, and carbon sequestration rates in the marshes. Bulk density and percent organic matter content of peat fluctuated through time at all sites, suggesting that peat formation processes are dynamic and responsive to watershed conditions. The balance between inorganic sedimentation and organic accumulation at the sites also varied through time, indicating that marshes may rely more strongly on either norganic or organic matter for peat formation at particular times in their existence. Mean carbon sequestration rates found in this study (0.38-0.79 Mg C ha -1 year -1 ) were similar to other long-term estimates for temperate peatlands.

California↗

USGS1992

Digital processing of side-scan sonar data with the Woods Hole image processing system software

Since 1985, the Branch of Atlantic Marine Geology has been involved in collecting, processing and digitally mosaicking high and low-resolution side-scan sonar data. Recent development of a UNIX-based image-processing software system includes a series of task specific programs for processing side-scan sonar data. This report describes the steps required to process the collected data and to produce an image that has equal along- and across-track resol

Open-File Report↗

USGS2013

Urban runoff (URO) process for MODFLOW 2005: simulation of sub-grid scale urban hydrologic processes in Broward County, FL

Climate change and sea-level rise could cause substantial changes in urban runoff and flooding in low-lying coast landscapes. A major challenge for local government officials and decision makers is to translate the potential global effects of climate change into actionable and cost-effective adaptation and mitigation strategies at county and municipal scales. A MODFLOW process is used to represent sub-grid scale hydrology in urban settings to help address these issues. Coupled interception, surface water, depression, and unsaturated zone storage are represented. A two-dimensional diffusive wave approximation is used to represent overland flow. Three different options for representing infiltration and recharge are presented. Additional features include structure, barrier, and culvert flow between adjacent cells, specified stage boundaries, critical flow boundaries, source/sink surface-water terms, and the bi-directional runoff to MODFLOW Surface-Water Routing process. Some abilities of the U rban R un O ff (URO) process are demonstrated with a synthetic problem using four land uses and varying cell coverages. Precipitation from a hypothetical storm was applied and cell by cell surface-water depth, groundwater level, infiltration rate, and groundwater recharge rate are shown. Results indicate the URO process has the ability to produce time-varying, water-content dependent infiltration and leakage, and successfully interacts with MODFLOW.

Florida↗

USGS1986

Effect of height and orientation (microclimate) on geomorphic degradation rates and processes, late-glacial terrace scarps in central Idaho

Skip Nav Destination RESEARCH ARTICLE | JULY 01, 1986 Effect of height and orientation (microclimate) on geomorphic degradation rates and processes, late-glacial terrace scarps in central Idaho KENNETH L. PIERCE ; STEVEN M. COLMAN Author and Article Information GSA Bulletin (1986) 97 (7): 869–885. https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1986)97<869:EOHAOM>2.0.CO;2 Article history Standard View 2.0.CO;2" data-doctype="contentPdf" data-article-id="188507" data-mce-href="https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/gsabulletin/article-pdf/97/7/869/3434736/i0016-7606-97-7-869.pdf"> Open the PDF for in another window Cite Share Icon Share Permissions Abstract Terrace scarps can serve as a nearly ideal natural laboratory for the study of the evolution of slopes. This paper examines the effects of scarp size (height) and orientation (microclimate) by keeping constant variables such as age, lithology, and regional climate. If a scarp degrades as a closed system, and downslope movement is directly proportional to surface gradient , the evolution of the scarp is modeled by the diffusion equation. For a group of scarps of same age and known starting angle, the diffusion-equation model predicts the relation between maximum scarp angle (𝛉) and scarp height ( h ). Late Pleistocene terrace scarps now as steep as 33.25°, as well as measured angles of repose for sand and gravel, require a starting angle as steep as 33.5°. For latest Pleistocene Idaho and Utah scarps, as h increases, 𝛉 is gentler (more degraded) than modeled by the diffusion equation with a constant rate coefficient. The degradation-rate coefficient ( c ) increases tenfold with scarp height; it should not change with scarp height if downslope movement is solely determined by surface gradient (to the first power). Soil wash appears to be responsible for this departure from the diffusion-equation model, for transport rate by soil wash is a function of scarp size (height). South-facing scarps are less vegetated and more degraded than north-facing scarps. For scarps 2 m high, the degradation rate ( c *) on S-facing scarps is 2 times that on N-facing scarps; for 10-m scarps, it is 5 times. The observed dependence of the rate coefficient c * on scarp height can be removed by normalizing c * to values for west-facing scarps of the same height. The residual c * values calculated by this method correlate well with differences in incident solar radiation resulting from the different scarp orientations and maximum gradients. This correlation demonstrates the importance of orientation on slope processes and their rates through the differences in freeze-thaw cycles, soil moisture, and vegetative cover. Scarp morphology may be used to estimate age, if one accounts for the effects of climate and for scarp height, orientation, and lithology. For example, using the dated Bonneville shoreline scarps for calibration and comparing only scarps of equal height, we estimate the Drum Mountains fault scarps to be 9,000 yr old. This age is about twice that produced by previous diffusion-equation calculations that have not accounted for the height as we have here, but it is the same as independent geologic estimates of their age.

Idaho↗

USGS2012

Weathering processes in the Rio Icacos and Rio Mameyes watersheds in Eastern Puerto Rico: Chapter I in Water quality and landscape processes of four watersheds in eastern Puerto Rico

Streams draining watersheds of the two dominant lithologies (quartz diorite and volcaniclastic rock) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest of eastern Puerto Rico have very high fluxes of bedrock weathering products. The Río Blanco quartz diorite in the Icacos watershed and the Fajardo volcaniclastic rocks in the Mameyes watershed have some of the fastest documented rates of chemical weathering of siliceous rocks in the world. Rapid weathering produces thick, highly leached saprolites in both watersheds that lie just below the soil and largely isolate subsurface biogeochemical and hydrologic processes from those in the soil. The quartz diorite bedrock in the Icacos watershed weathers spheroidally, leaving large, relatively unweathered corestones that are enveloped by slightly weathered rock layers called rindlets. The rindlets wrap around the corestones like an onionskin. Within the corestones, biotite oxidation is thought to induce the spheroidal fracturing that leads to development of rindlets; plagioclase in the rindlets dissolves, creating additional pore spaces. Near the rindlet-saprolite interface, the remaining plagioclase dissolves, hornblende dissolves to completion, and precipitation of kaolinite, gibbsite, and goethite becomes pervasive. In the saprolite, biotite weathers to kaolinite and quartz begins to dissolve. In the soil layer, both quartz and kaolinite dissolve. The volcaniclastic bedrock of the Mameyes watershed weathers even faster than the quartz diorite bedrock of the Icacos watershed, leaving thicker saprolites that are devoid of all primary minerals except quartz. The quartz content of volcaniclastic bedrock may help to control watershed geomorphology; high-quartz rocks form thick saprolites that blanket ridges. Hydrologic flow paths within the weathering profiles vary with total fluid flux, and they influence the chemistry of streams. Under low-flow conditions, the Río Icacos and its tributaries are fed by rainfall and by groundwater from the fracture zones; during storm events, intense rainfall rapidly raises stream levels and water is flushed through the soil as shallow flow. As a result, weathering constituents that shed into streamwaters are dominated by rindlet-zone weathering processes during base flow and by soil weathering processes during stormflow. The upper reaches of the Mameyes watershed are characterized by regolith more than 35 meters thick in places that contains highly fractured rock embedded in its matrix. Weathering contributions to stream chemistry at base flow are predicted to be more spatially variable in the Mameyes watershed than in the Icacos watershed owing to the more complex subsurface weathering profile of the volcaniclastic bedrocks of the Mameyes watershed.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2005

Supporting users through integrated retrieval, processing, and distribution systems at the Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center

The US Geological Survey's EROS Data Center (EDC) hosts the Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC). The LP DAAC supports NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS), which is a series of polar-orbiting and low inclination satellites for long-term global observations of the land surface, biosphere, solid Earth, atmosphere, and oceans. The EOS Data and Information Systems (EOSDIS) was designed to acquire, archive, manage and distribute Earth observation data to the broadest possible user community. The LP DAAC is one of four DAACs that utilize the EOSDIS Core System (ECS) to manage and archive their data. Since the ECS was originally designed, significant changes have taken place in technology, user expectations, and user requirements. Therefore the LP DAAC has implemented additional systems to meet the evolving needs of scientific users, tailored to an integrated working environment. These systems provide a wide variety of services to improve data access and to enhance data usability through subsampling, reformatting, and reprojection. These systems also support the wide breadth of products that are handled by the LP DAAC. The LP DAAC is the primary archive for the Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) data; it is the only facility in the United States that archives, processes, and distributes data from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission/Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA's Terra spacecraft; and it is responsible for the archive and distribution of “land products” generated from data acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites.

Acta Astronautica↗

USGS2004

Geodetic and seismic constraints on some seismogenic zone processes in Costa Rica

New seismic and geodetic data from Costa Rica provide insight into seismogenic zone processes in Central America, where the Cocos and Caribbean plates converge. Seismic data are from combined land and ocean bottom deployments in the Nicoya peninsula in northern Costa Rica and near the Osa peninsula in southern Costa Rica. In Nicoya, inversion of GPS data suggests two locked patches centered at 14 ± 2 and 39 ± 6 km depth. Interplate microseismicity is concentrated in the more freely slipping intermediate zone, suggesting that small interseismic earthquakes may not accurately outline the updip limit of the seismogenic zone, the rupture zone for future large earthquakes, at least over the short (∼1 year) observation period. We also estimate northwest motion of a coastal “sliver block” at 8 ± 3 mm/yr, probably related to oblique convergence. In the Osa region to the south, convergence is orthogonal to the trench. Cocos-Caribbean relative motion is partitioned here, with ∼8 cm/yr on the Cocos-Panama block boundary (including a component of permanent shortening across the Fila Costeña fold and thrust belt) and ∼1 cm/yr on the Panama block–Caribbean boundary. The GPS data suggest that the Cocos plate–Panama block boundary is completely locked from ∼10–50 km depth. This large locked zone, as well as associated forearc and back-arc deformation, may be related to subduction of the shallow Cocos Ridge and/or younger lithosphere compared to Nicoya, with consequent higher coupling and compressive stress in the direction of plate convergence.

Nicoya Peninsula, Osa Peninsula↗

USGS2022

Vote-processing rules for combining control recommendations from multiple models

Mathematical modelling is used during disease outbreaks to compare control interventions. Using multiple models, the best method to combine model recommendations is unclear. Existing methods weight model projections, then rank control interventions using the combined projections, presuming model outputs are directly comparable. However, the way each model represents the epidemiological system will vary. We apply electoral vote-processing rules to combine model-generated rankings of interventions. Combining rankings of interventions, instead of combining model projections, avoids assuming that projections are comparable as all comparisons of projections are made within each model. We investigate four rules: First-past-the-post, Alternative Vote (AV), Coombs Method and Borda Count. We investigate rule sensitivity by including models that favour only one action or including those that rank interventions randomly. We investigate two case studies: the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa (37 compartmental models) and a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in UK (four individual-based models). The Coombs Method was least susceptible to adding models that favoured a single action, Borda Count and AV were most susceptible to adding models that ranked interventions randomly. Each rule chose the same intervention as when ranking interventions by mean projections, suggesting that combining rankings provides similar recommendations with fewer assumptions about model comparability.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗

USGS2011

Understanding interaction effects of climate change and fire management on bird distributions through combined process and habitat models

Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process-based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail ( Callipepla squamata ), Loggerhead Shrike ( Lanius ludovicianus ), and Rock Wren ( Salpinctes obsoletus ), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo ( Fouquieria splendens ) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf-area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species' use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes.

Chihuahuan Desert↗