USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “PLoS”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2007

Geoscience for Alaska's D-1 lands: A preliminary report

Purpose of This Report This interim report follows from the June 2006 recommendations to Congress by the BLM concerning disposition of the d-1 lands. That report recommended lifting of a significant number of d-1 PLOs, through the ongoing land management process within the BLM (e.g. resource management planning areas), or through Congressional action. The strategic actions outlined in this document refer only to Federal lands under US Bureau of Land Management (BLM) jurisdiction that 1) are affected by temporary withdrawals from mineral entry and mineral leasing by PLOs made pursuant to the Section 17(d)(1) of the ANCSA; 2) have been identified by the BLM as candidates for possible lifting of these PLOs and restrictions (U.S. Bureau of Land Management, 2006); and 3) lie outside of current Federal parks, preserves, monuments, refuges, reserves, wilderness areas and military installations that are closed to mineral entry, because within those areas the potential lifting of the d-1 restrictions has no practical effect. The resulting lands discussed here comprise approximately 121,000 km2 (29.9 million acres) of Alaska (Table 1) that, pending final resolution of Native and State land claims, will or may remain under Federal (BLM) control, and could be opened to mineral entry. For the purposes of this report, only these 29.9 million acres will hereafter be referred to as 'd-1' lands. This report gives a brief overview of the spatial distribution and physiographic setting, mineral occurrences, and mineral resource potential of the d-1lands. It outlines further geoscience information which could be compiled, collected, and evaluated in order to make a more accurate and comprehensive examination of the potential for undiscovered, locatable mineral resources on these Federal lands. This information is intended to provide guidance to USGS program managers and Federal land managers on matters of future exploration, access needs, and consequences of land status changes.

Alaska↗
USGS2016

The importance of species name synonyms in literature searches

The synonyms of biological species names are shown to be an important component in comprehensive searches of electronic scientific literature databases but they are not well leveraged within the major literature databases examined. For accepted or valid species names in the Integrated Taxonomic Information System (ITIS) which have synonyms in the system, and which are found in citations within PLoS, PMC, PubMed or Scopus, both the percentage of species for which citations will not be found if synonyms are not used, and the percentage increase in number of citations found by including synonyms are very often substantial. However, there is no correlation between the number of synonyms per species and the magnitude of the effect. Further, the number of citations found does not generally increase proportionally to the number of synonyms available. Users looking for literature on specific species across all of the resources investigated here are often missing large numbers of citations if they are not manually augmenting their searches with synonyms. Of course, missing citations can have serious consequences by effectively hiding critical information. Literature searches should include synonym relationships and a new web service in ITIS, with examples of how to apply it to this issue, was developed as a result of this study, and is here announced, to aide in this.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2021

Lampropeltis californiae (California kingsnake) behavior, male-male combat

There are few published descriptions of male-male combat in Lampropeltis spp. under natural conditions. Shaw (1951. Herpetologica 7:149-168) briefly described aggressive interactions between two captive male L. annulata (Mexican Milksnakes) that appeared to be associated with feeding, and Moehn (1967. Copeia 1967:480–481) described the "combat dance" between two male L. calligaster (Prairie Kingsnakes) in the field over a period of 30 minutes, with the snakes "completely intertwined..." and "...in constant motion." Carpenter and Gillingham (1977. Southwest. Nat. 22:517–524) described and illustrated interactions of two male L. holbrooki (Speckled Kingsnake) in a small artificial enclosure. Tabulated categories of male–male combat behaviors in Boid, Colubrid, and Viperid snakes (including Lampropeltis spp.) have been compared in an attempt to relate behavior patterns to phylogenetic relationships (Senter et al. 2014. PLoS ONE 9(9): e107528).

Herpetological Review↗
USGS2022

Caretta caretta (Loggerhead Sea Turtle) nesting exchange

The Northwest Atlantic population of Loggerhead Sea Turtles ( Caretta caretta ) is one of the largest C. caretta populations in the world and is listed as threatened. This population was divided into five genetically distinct subpopulations, including the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGoM) subpopulation (Shamblin et al. 2017 Mar. Bio. 164:138). Across the NGoM, the majority of C. caretta nesting occurs in Franklin and Gulf Counties, Florida, USA (Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, https://myfwc.com/research/wildlife/sea-turtles/nesting/nesting-atlas/). Few C. caretta nests are documented on Texas, USA, beaches and as such, less is known about the individuals that nest in Texas (see Shaver et al. 2020 Front. Mar. Sci. 7:1, Frandsen et al. 2020 Herp. Review 51:825) as compared to those that nest on beaches in the eastern part of the range (Lamont et al. 2014 Mar. Bio. 161:2659). Although C. caretta individuals have been tracked to Texas from nesting beaches throughout the Southeastern USA (Hart et al. 2014, PLoS One, 9), movements of C. caretta away from Texas beaches are rare. Here we detail the exchange of an adult female C. caretta that emerged and was tagged on the beach in Texas and then subsequently documented nesting in Northwest Florida.

Texas↗
USGS2011

Alphacoronaviruses in new World bats: Prevalence, persistence, phylogeny, and potential for interaction with humans

Bats are reservoirs for many different coronaviruses (CoVs) as well as many other important zoonotic viruses. We sampled feces and/or anal swabs of 1,044 insectivorous bats of 2 families and 17 species from 21 different locations within Colorado from 2007 to 2009. We detected alphacoronavirus RNA in bats of 4 species: big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus), 10% prevalence; long-legged bats (Myotis volans), 8% prevalence; little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus), 3% prevalence; and western long-eared bats (Myotis evotis), 2% prevalence. Overall, juvenile bats were twice as likely to be positive for CoV RNA as adult bats. At two of the rural sampling sites, CoV RNAs were detected in big brown and long-legged bats during the three sequential summers of this study. CoV RNA was detected in big brown bats in all five of the urban maternity roosts sampled throughout each of the periods tested. Individually tagged big brown bats that were positive for CoV RNA and later sampled again all became CoV RNA negative. Nucleotide sequences in the RdRp gene fell into 3 main clusters, all distinct from those of Old World bats. Similar nucleotide sequences were found in amplicons from gene 1b and the spike gene in both a big-brown and a long-legged bat, indicating that a CoV may be capable of infecting bats of different genera. These data suggest that ongoing evolution of CoVs in bats creates the possibility of a continued threat for emergence into hosts of other species. Alphacoronavirus RNA was detected at a high prevalence in big brown bats in roosts in close proximity to human habitations (10%) and known to have direct contact with people (19%), suggesting that significant potential opportunities exist for cross-species transmission of these viruses. Further CoV surveillance studies in bats throughout the Americas are warranted.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2011

Parasite transmission in social interacting hosts: Monogenean epidemics in guppies

Background Infection incidence increases with the average number of contacts between susceptible and infected individuals. Contact rates are normally assumed to increase linearly with host density. However, social species seek out each other at low density and saturate their contact rates at high densities. Although predicting epidemic behaviour requires knowing how contact rates scale with host density, few empirical studies have investigated the effect of host density. Also, most theory assumes each host has an equal probability of transmitting parasites, even though individual parasite load and infection duration can vary. To our knowledge, the relative importance of characteristics of the primary infected host vs. the susceptible population has never been tested experimentally. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we examine epidemics using a common ectoparasite, Gyrodactylus turnbulli infecting its guppy host ( Poecilia reticulata ). Hosts were maintained at different densities (3, 6, 12 and 24 fish in 40 L aquaria), and we monitored gyrodactylids both at a population and individual host level. Although parasite population size increased with host density, the probability of an epidemic did not. Epidemics were more likely when the primary infected fish had a high mean intensity and duration of infection. Epidemics only occurred if the primary infected host experienced more than 23 worm days. Female guppies contracted infections sooner than males, probably because females have a higher propensity for shoaling. Conclusions/Significance These findings suggest that in social hosts like guppies, the frequency of social contact largely governs disease epidemics independent of host density.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2011

Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a century of continuing climate change

Background Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. Methodology/Principal Findings We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010–2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. Conclusions/Significance Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21 st century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.

California↗
USGS2011

Movements of wolves at the northern extreme of the species' range, including during four months of darkness

Information about wolf ( Canis lupus ) movements anywhere near the northern extreme of the species' range in the High Arctic (>75°N latitude) are lacking. There, wolves prey primarily on muskoxen ( Ovibos moschatus ) and must survive 4 months of 24 hr/day winter darkness and temperatures reaching -53 C. The extent to which wolves remain active and prey on muskoxen during the dark period are unknown, for the closest area where information is available about winter wolf movements is >2,250 km south. We studied a pack of ≥20 wolves on Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada (80°N latitude) from July 2009 through mid-April 2010 by collaring a lead wolf with a Global Positioning System (GPS)/Argos radio collar. The collar recorded the wolf's precise locations at 6:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m. daily and transmitted the locations by satellite to our email. Straight-line distances between consecutive 12-hr locations varied between 0 and 76 km. Mean (SE) linear distance between consecutive locations (n = 554) was 11 (0.5) km. Total minimum distance traveled was 5,979 km, and total area covered was 6,640 km 2 , the largest wolf range reported. The wolf and presumably his pack once made a 263-km (straight-line distance) foray to the southeast during 19–28 January 2010, returning 29 January to 1 February at an average of 41 km/day straight-line distances between 12-hr locations. This study produced the first detailed movement information about any large mammal in the High Arctic, and the average movements during the dark period did not differ from those afterwards. Wolf movements during the dark period in the highest latitudes match those of the other seasons and generally those of wolves in lower latitudes, and, at least with the gross movements measurable by our methods, the 4-month period without direct sunlight produced little change in movements.

Ellesmere Island;Nunavut↗
USGS2011

Comparative phylogeography of a coevolved community: Concerted population expansions in Joshua trees and four Yucca moths

Comparative phylogeographic studies have had mixed success in identifying common phylogeographic patterns among co-distributed organisms. Whereas some have found broadly similar patterns across a diverse array of taxa, others have found that the histories of different species are more idiosyncratic than congruent. The variation in the results of comparative phylogeographic studies could indicate that the extent to which sympatrically-distributed organisms share common biogeographic histories varies depending on the strength and specificity of ecological interactions between them. To test this hypothesis, we examined demographic and phylogeographic patterns in a highly specialized, coevolved community - Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia) and their associated yucca moths. This tightly-integrated, mutually interdependent community is known to have experienced significant range changes at the end of the last glacial period, so there is a strong a priori expectation that these organisms will show common signatures of demographic and distributional changes over time. Using a database of >5000 GPS records for Joshua trees, and multi-locus DNA sequence data from the Joshua tree and four species of yucca moth, we combined paleaodistribution modeling with coalescent-based analyses of demographic and phylgeographic history. We extensively evaluated the power of our methods to infer past population size and distributional changes by evaluating the effect of different inference procedures on our results, comparing our palaeodistribution models to Pleistocene-aged packrat midden records, and simulating DNA sequence data under a variety of alternative demographic histories. Together the results indicate that these organisms have shared a common history of population expansion, and that these expansions were broadly coincident in time. However, contrary to our expectations, none of our analyses indicated significant range or population size reductions at the end of the last glacial period, and the inferred demographic changes substantially predate Holocene climate changes.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2012

Selection indicates preference in diverse habitats: A ground-nesting bird ( Charadrius melodus ) using reservoir shoreline

Animals use proximate cues to select resources that maximize individual fitness. When animals have a diverse array of available habitats, those selected could give insights into true habitat preferences. Since the construction of the Garrison Dam on the Missouri River in North Dakota, Lake Sakakawea (SAK) has become an important breeding area for federally threatened piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ; hereafter plovers). We used conditional logistic regression to examine nest-site selection at fine scales (1, 3, and 10 m) during summers 2006&ndash;2009 by comparing characteristics at 351 nests to those of 668 random sites within nesting territories. Plovers selected sites (1 m 2 ) that were lower than unused random sites, increasing the risk of nest inundation. Plovers selected nest sites that were flat, had little silt, and at least 1 cobble; they also selected for 3-m radius nest areas that were relatively flat and devoid of vegetation and litter. Ninety percent of nests had <38% coverage of silt and <10% slope at the site, and <15% coverage of vegetation or litter and <31% slope within the 3-m radius. Gravel was selected for at nest sites (11% median), but against in the area 10-m from the nest, suggesting plovers select for patches or strips of gravel. Although elevation is rarely evaluated in studies of ground-nesting birds, our results underscore its importance in habitat-selection studies. Relative to where plovers historically nested, habitat at SAK has more diverse topography, substrate composition, vegetation communities, and greater water-level fluctuations. Accordingly, our results provide an example of how habitat-selection results can be interpreted as habitat preferences because they are not influenced by desired habitats being scarce or absent. Further, our results will be useful for directing habitat conservation for plovers and interpreting other habitat-selection studies.

North Dakota↗
USGS2012

Rapid microsatellite identification from Illumina paired-end genomic sequencing in two birds and a snake

Identification of microsatellites, or simple sequence repeats (SSRs), can be a time-consuming and costly investment requiring enrichment, cloning, and sequencing of candidate loci. Recently, however, high throughput sequencing (with or without prior enrichment for specific SSR loci) has been utilized to identify SSR loci. The direct "Seq-to-SSR" approach has an advantage over enrichment-based strategies in that it does not require a priori selection of particular motifs, or prior knowledge of genomic SSR content. It has been more expensive per SSR locus recovered, however, particularly for genomes with few SSR loci, such as bird genomes. The longer but relatively more expensive 454 reads have been preferred over less expensive Illumina reads. Here, we use Illumina paired-end sequence data to identify potentially amplifiable SSR loci (PALs) from a snake (the Burmese python, Python molurus bivittatus ), and directly compare these results to those from 454 data. We also compare the python results to results from Illumina sequencing of two bird genomes (Gunnison Sage-grouse, Centrocercus minimus , and Clark's Nutcracker, Nucifraga columbiana ), which have considerably fewer SSRs than the python. We show that direct Illumina Seq-to-SSR can identify and characterize thousands of potentially amplifiable SSR loci for as little as $10 per sample &ndash; a fraction of the cost of 454 sequencing. Given that Illumina Seq-to-SSR is effective, inexpensive, and reliable even for species such as birds that have few SSR loci, it seems that there are now few situations for which prior hybridization is justifiable.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2026

The WOAH global wildlife health collaborating centre network (WOAH-WildNet): A coordinated and transformative approach to global wildlife health challenges

Wildlife health is integral to functioning, complex ecosystems [ 1 ], directly and indirectly influencing the health of people, animals, plants, and the environment [ 2 – 4 ]. Healthy wildlife populations are essential for ecosystem services and are at the heart of the One Health approach [ 3 , 4 ], which aims to sustainably balance and optimize the health of people, animals, and ecosystems through multisectoral and transdisciplinary collaboration [ 5 ]. Despite its importance, wildlife health initiatives often operate in silos, limiting capacity to address transboundary threats such as emerging diseases, pollution, and environmental changes. Anthropogenic changes, including habitat loss, degradation, fragmentation, and unsustainable harvesting, exacerbate wildlife health challenges [6–9]. These pressures disrupt species biology and alter host-pathogen dynamics [10–12], underscoring the importance of coordinated collective action in addressing harmful effects on the health of wild animals. While local conservation efforts are vital, long-term success in safeguarding biodiversity requires a unified, global network. For instance, without harmonized surveillance and response systems, individual institutions cannot effectively track pathogens across borders or share diagnostic capabilities. The World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) Collaborating Centre Network for Wildlife Health—WOAH-WildNet—was established to bridge these gaps. By fostering global collaboration, sharing resources, and enabling data exchange, WOAH-WildNet provides a transformative, systems-based approach to wildlife health, managing risks, and enhancing ecosystem resilience. Central to this mission is breaking down silos to promote intersectoral coordinated responses to complex wildlife health challenges.

PLOS Sustainability and Transformation↗
USGS2011

Degradation of the disease-associated prion protein by a serine protease from lichens

The disease-associated prion protein (PrP(TSE)), the probable etiological agent of the transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs), is resistant to degradation and can persist in the environment. Lichens, mutualistic symbioses containing fungi, algae, bacteria and occasionally cyanobacteria, are ubiquitous in the environment and have evolved unique biological activities allowing their survival in challenging ecological niches. We investigated PrP(TSE) inactivation by lichens and found acetone extracts of three lichen species (Parmelia sulcata, Cladonia rangiferina and Lobaria pulmonaria) have the ability to degrade prion protein (PrP) from TSE-infected hamsters, mice and deer. Immunoblots measuring PrP levels and protein misfolding cyclic amplification indicated at least two logs of reductions in PrP(TSE). Degradative activity was not found in closely related lichen species or in algae or a cyanobacterium that inhabit lichens. Degradation was blocked by Pefabloc SC, a serine protease inhibitor, but not inhibitors of other proteases or enzymes. Additionally, we found that PrP levels in PrP(TSE)-enriched preps or infected brain homogenates are also reduced following exposure to freshly-collected P. sulcata or an aqueous extract of the lichen. Our findings indicate that these lichen extracts efficiently degrade PrP(TSE) and suggest that some lichens could have potential to inactivate TSE infectivity on the landscape or be a source for agents to degrade prions. Further work to clone and characterize the protease, assess its effect on TSE infectivity and determine which organism or organisms present in lichens produce or influence the protease activity is warranted.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2014

West Nile Virus transmission in winter: the 2013 Great Salt Lake Bald Eagle and Eared Grebes Mortality event

West Nile Virus (WNV) infection has been reported in over 300 species of birds and mammals. Raptors such as eagles, hawks and falcons are remarkably susceptible, but reports of WNV infection in Bald Eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) are rare and reports of WNV infection in grebes (Podicipediformes) even rarer. We report an unusually large wild bird mortality event involving between 15,000-20,000 Eared Grebes (Podiceps nigricollis) and over 40 Bald Eagles around the Great Salt Lake, Utah, in November-December 2013. Mortality in grebes was first reported in early November during a period when the area was unseasonably warm and the grebes were beginning to gather and stage prior to migration. Ten out of ten Eared Grebes collected during this period were WNV RT-PCR and/or isolation positive. This is the first report of WNV infection in Eared Grebes and the associated mortality event is matched in scale only by the combined outbreaks in American White Pelican (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos) colonies in the north central states in 2002-2003. We cannot be sure that all of the grebes were infected by mosquito transmission; some may have become infected through contact with WNV shed orally or cloacally from other infected grebes. Beginning in early December, Bald Eagles in the Great Salt Lake area were observed to display neurological signs such as body tremors, limb paralysis and lethargy. At least 43 Bald Eagles had died by the end of the month. Nine of nine Bald Eagles examined were infected with WNV. To the best of our knowledge, this is the largest single raptor mortality event since WNV became endemic in the USA. Because the majority of the eagles affected were found after onset of below-freezing temperatures, we suggest at least some of the Bald Eagles were infected with WNV via consumption of infected Eared Grebes or horizontal transmission at roost sites.

PLOS Current Outbreaks↗
USGS2004

The elusive baseline of marine disease: Are diseases in ocean ecosystems increasing?

Disease outbreaks alter the structure and function of marine ecosystems, directly affecting vertebrates (mammals, turtles, fish), invertebrates (corals, crustaceans, echinoderms), and plants (seagrasses). Previous studies suggest a recent increase in marine disease. However, lack of baseline data in most communities prevents a direct test of this hypothesis. We developed a proxy to evaluate a prediction of the increasing disease hypothesis: the proportion of scientific publications reporting disease increased in recent decades. This represents, to our knowledge, the first quantitative use of normalized trends in the literature to investigate an ecological hypothesis. We searched a literature database for reports of parasites and disease (hereafter “disease”) in nine marine taxonomic groups from 1970 to 2001. Reports, normalized for research effort, increased in turtles, corals, mammals, urchins, and molluscs. No significant trends were detected for seagrasses, decapods, or sharks/rays (though disease occurred in these groups). Counter to the prediction, disease reports decreased in fishes. Formulating effective resource management policy requires understanding the basis and timing of marine disease events. Why disease outbreaks increased in some groups but not in others should be a priority for future investigation. The increase in several groups lends urgency to understanding disease dynamics, particularly since few viable options currently exist to mitigate disease in the oceans.

PLoS Biology↗
USGS2012

The macroecology of sustainability

The discipline of sustainability science has emerged in response to concerns of natural and social scientists, policymakers, and lay people about whether the Earth can continue to support human population growth and economic prosperity. Yet, sustainability science has developed largely independently from and with little reference to key ecological principles that govern life on Earth. A macroecological perspective highlights three principles that should be integral to sustainability science: 1) physical conservation laws govern the flows of energy and materials between human systems and the environment, 2) smaller systems are connected by these flows to larger systems in which they are embedded, and 3) global constraints ultimately limit flows at smaller scales. Over the past few decades, decreasing per capita rates of consumption of petroleum, phosphate, agricultural land, fresh water, fish, and wood indicate that the growing human population has surpassed the capacity of the Earth to supply enough of these essential resources to sustain even the current population and level of socioeconomic development.

PLoS Biology↗
USGS2013

Parasites affect food web structure primarily through increased diversity and complexity

Comparative research on food web structure has revealed generalities in trophic organization, produced simple models, and allowed assessment of robustness to species loss. These studies have mostly focused on free-living species. Recent research has suggested that inclusion of parasites alters structure. We assess whether such changes in network structure result from unique roles and traits of parasites or from changes to diversity and complexity. We analyzed seven highly resolved food webs that include metazoan parasite data. Our analyses show that adding parasites usually increases link density and connectance (simple measures of complexity), particularly when including concomitant links (links from predators to parasites of their prey). However, we clarify prior claims that parasites ‘‘dominate’’ food web links. Although parasites can be involved in a majority of links, in most cases classic predation links outnumber classic parasitism links. Regarding network structure, observed changes in degree distributions, 14 commonly studied metrics, and link probabilities are consistent with scale-dependent changes in structure associated with changes in diversity and complexity. Parasite and free-living species thus have similar effects on these aspects of structure. However, two changes point to unique roles of parasites. First, adding parasites and concomitant links strongly alters the frequency of most motifs of interactions among three taxa, reflecting parasites’ roles as resources for predators of their hosts, driven by trophic intimacy with their hosts. Second, compared to free-living consumers, many parasites’ feeding niches appear broader and less contiguous, which may reflect complex life cycles and small body sizes. This study provides new insights about generic versus unique impacts of parasites on food web structure, extends the generality of food web theory, gives a more rigorous framework for assessing the impact of any species on trophic organization, identifies limitations of current food web models, and provides direction for future structural and dynamical models.

PLoS Biology↗
USGS2014

Adaptive management and the value of information: learning via intervention in epidemiology

Optimal intervention for disease outbreaks is often impeded by severe scientific uncertainty. Adaptive management (AM), long-used in natural resource management, is a structured decision-making approach to solving dynamic problems that accounts for the value of resolving uncertainty via real-time evaluation of alternative models. We propose an AM approach to design and evaluate intervention strategies in epidemiology, using real-time surveillance to resolve model uncertainty as management proceeds, with foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) culling and measles vaccination as case studies. We use simulations of alternative intervention strategies under competing models to quantify the effect of model uncertainty on decision making, in terms of the value of information, and quantify the benefit of adaptive versus static intervention strategies. Culling decisions during the 2001 UK FMD outbreak were contentious due to uncertainty about the spatial scale of transmission. The expected benefit of resolving this uncertainty prior to a new outbreak on a UK-like landscape would be £45–£60 million relative to the strategy that minimizes livestock losses averaged over alternate transmission models. AM during the outbreak would be expected to recover up to £20.1 million of this expected benefit. AM would also recommend a more conservative initial approach (culling of infected premises and dangerous contact farms) than would a fixed strategy (which would additionally require culling of contiguous premises). For optimal targeting of measles vaccination, based on an outbreak in Malawi in 2010, AM allows better distribution of resources across the affected region; its utility depends on uncertainty about both the at-risk population and logistical capacity. When daily vaccination rates are highly constrained, the optimal initial strategy is to conduct a small, quick campaign; a reduction in expected burden of approximately 10,000 cases could result if campaign targets can be updated on the basis of the true susceptible population. Formal incorporation of a policy to update future management actions in response to information gained in the course of an outbreak can change the optimal initial response and result in significant cost savings. AM provides a framework for using multiple models to facilitate public-health decision making and an objective basis for updating management actions in response to improved scientific understanding.

PLoS Biology↗