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Results for “Ornis Hungarica”

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3 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2003

Hierarchical models and the analysis of bird survey information

Management of birds often requires analysis of collections of estimates. We describe a hierarchical modeling approach to the analysis of these data, in which parameters associated with the individual species estimates are treated as random variables, and probability statements are made about the species parameters conditioned on the data. A Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure is used to fit the hierarchical model. This approach is computer intensive, and is based upon simulation. MCMC allows for estimation both of parameters and of derived statistics. To illustrate the application of this method, we use the case in which we are interested in attributes of a collection of estimates of population change. Using data for 28 species of grassland-breeding birds from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we estimate the number of species with increasing populations, provide precision-adjusted rankings of species trends, and describe a measure of population stability as the probability that the trend for a species is within a certain interval. Hierarchical models can be applied to a variety of bird survey applications, and we are investigating their use in estimation of population change from survey data.

Ornis Hungarica↗
USGS2003

Developing a general conceptual framework for avian conservation science

Avian conservation science in North America has produced a variety of monitoring programs designed to provide information on population status of birds. Waterfowl surveys provide population estimates for breeding ducks over most of the continent, the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provides indexes to population change for >400 breeding bird species, and many other surveys exist that index bird populations at a variety of scales and seasons. However, many fundamental questions about bird population change remain unanswered. I suggest that analyses of monitoring data provide limited understanding of causes of population change, and that the declining species paradigm (Caughley 1994) is sometimes an inefficient approach to increasing our understanding of causes of population change. In North America, the North American Bird Conservation Initiative (NABCI) provides an opportunity to implement alternative approaches that use management, modeling of population responses to management, and monitoring in combination to increase our understanding of bird populations. In adaptive resources management, modeling provides predictions about consequences of management, and monitoring data allow us to assess the population consequences of management. In this framework, alternative hypotheses about response of populations to management can be evaluated by formulating a series of models with differing structure, and management and monitoring provide information about which model best predicts population response.

Ornis Hungarica↗
USGS2003

Incorporating precision, accuracy and alternative sampling designs into a continental monitoring program for colonial waterbirds

A comprehensive monitoring program for colonial waterbirds in North America has never existed. At smaller geographic scales, many states and provinces conduct surveys of colonial waterbird populations. Periodic regional surveys are conducted at varying times during the breeding season using a variety of survey methods, which complicates attempts to estimate population trends for most species. The US Geological Survey Patuxent Wildlife Research Center has recently started to coordinate colonial waterbird monitoring efforts throughout North America. A centralized database has been developed with an Internet-based data entry and retrieval page. The extent of existing colonial waterbird surveys has been defined, allowing gaps in coverage to be identified and basic inventories completed where desirable. To enable analyses of comparable data at regional or larger geographic scales, sampling populations through statistically sound sampling designs should supersede obtaining counts at every colony. Standardized breeding season survey techniques have been agreed upon and documented in a monitoring manual. Each survey in the manual has associated with it recommendations for bias estimation, and includes specific instructions on measuring detectability. The methods proposed in the manual are for developing reliable, comparable indices of population size to establish trend information at multiple spatial and temporal scales, but they will not result in robust estimates of total population numbers.

Ornis Hungarica↗